Friday Forecast

122 Comments

1:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
The deep freeze goes on and will only slightly loosen its grip for a day Saturday as a wave of low pressure passes just south of the region with a threat of some snow (not a big storm) especially for southern areas. Behind this will come a reinforcement of arctic cold for the changing of the year. A wave of low pressure should bring some clouds later Monday and early Tuesday but at this time it looks like any snow will stay to the south. Details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Early morning snow showers possible outer Cape Cod. Highs 10-15 except 15-20 Cape Cod. Wind light NW.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow possible mainly from the Boston area to Worcester area southward. Expected snow accumulations from a coating to 1 inch Boston area to Worcester area to the Plymouth MA and Providence RI areas, 1-3 inches closer to the South Coast and 3-6 inches on the islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows -5 to 0 interior, 0-5 coast. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below -10 at times.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Sunny day. Clear evening. Daytime highs 8-13 except 13-18 Cape Cod. Evening temperatures fall toward 0 interior and 10 or a little below Boston and coast. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill will below 0 at times.
MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Increasing clouds. Lows -8 to +3. Highs 10-20.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Lows 0-10. Highs 10-20.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)
Will watch 2 storm threats, leaning toward a graze or miss for the first (about January 4) and a graze or hit for the second (about January 6), but this is very preliminary and will be watched and fine-tuned. More confidently, temperatures will continue below to much below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)
More cold weather. Snow/mix threats early and again late in the period with dry weather between.

122 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  6. Good morning,

    A Big Fat 1 degree here in JP. did not make Zero,

    RE: snow
    Argh^%*%^%*&^*&%*&%^&%^&%&&*()&)(*^(*^

    Off shore, off shore, off shore, off shore, off shore, off shore Ad nauseam.

    Even the mighty Euro has fallen.

    Is there time for things to change with the threats next week? Sure, but seriously, what do you think? SEE YA.

  11. Reminder: Just because the GFS has no snow on its run does not mean there will be no snow. You know the drill with models, right? 🙂

    Going by the “latest run is always right” rule will lead you astray often.

    1. yeah, I know. Doesn’t mean I can’t react to a run.
      fwiw, it’s 2 consecutive runs for the gfs. 😀

      This is how I am feeling…..

      $%$%*(*^&%^$%&^$&^&%^&$%&$^%$%$%^$%$^$&%$%#&^^&(*^*&%&^$%$&&*^*(^&%^$&**&^&*^*(%^$%$*((&^&*$%*$&%^&*(&%^$^&$^*(&%&^$%&$%*(%^&$**&(&%(^$%(**$$&^*(*&$^$*&$%&^$&^$&^(&^%$^&%^(%(*%(^&%&^%^(%&%(&^&^%^&%^&%(*^%^%&(%%(^&%&^%^%&^%&&^%&^%&^%

      Time to make the donuts…..later.

      1. If you must. I think it’s healthier to just react to weather. 🙂

        I am reacting to this arctic outbreak: LOVE it!

        1. I am enjoying as well. It did cut into my late night deck sitting, but it so energizing. I suppose if I wore more than a long sleeve tee and sweats I might have lasted longer. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  12. Warmer at 7am on Mt. Washington with both temp and windchill over Boston. It is 5 with a windchill of -8 on Mt. Washington vs. a temp of 3 and wind chill of -12 at Logan.

    1. Arctic air is shallow. The mountain often is colder upon delivery of the air (yesterday) and warmer after (now). Kinda neat!

  15. Thanks TK!

    Tomorrow’s snow is a non-event for most. South Coast, Cape, and Islands look like the only place where over an inch may fall. This is just a classic cold and dry pattern. Every couple days we get a reinforcing shot of cold.

  16. Beautiful morning today.

    I went out to the car and noticed a cool looking overcast.
    I know there is no snow anywhere near us, but it kind of looks like
    that snow sky. Also, the wind is not nearly as biting as yesterday.

    A very pleasant day, despite the cold.

    Now if we can just get the upper flow to amplify.

  17. Is it ever to cold to snow?
    We here this question all of the time.
    Here is a response from AccuWeather:

    A question meteorologist get asked all the time during the cold winter months is “can it ever be too cold to snow”? Well, the short answer is no.

    The ingredients for snow are:

    1. A temperature profile that allows snow to reach the surface

    2. Saturated air

    3. Enough lifting of that saturated air to allow snow to develop aloft and fall to reach the surface

    The phrase “it’s too cold to snow” probably originated as a misapplication of the relationship between temperature and the maximum amount of water vapor that can be in the air. When temperature decreases, the maximum capacity of water vapor that can be in the air decreases. Therefore, the colder it gets the less water vapor there will be in the air.

    Most heavy snowfalls happen with relatively warm air temperatures near the ground — usually at 15 degrees F or above. When the temperature drops into the single digits, or below zero, heavy snow is unlikely. That’s not because it’s too cold, but because its too dry. When temperatures are that low, the air’s capacity for water vapor becomes very small.

    Experts say only at absolute zero would snow become impossible. Along with everything else.

    Here are my thoughts concerning this weather pattern.

    Honestly, it is NOT too cold for it to snow.
    However, given this pattern of reinforcing Arctic Air on a NW flow, it just
    makes it very tough to get any moisture in here. The NW flow is most reluctant
    to amplify to bring moisture up here. Also it is so cold and dense, it has
    a tendency to suppress would be systems to the South.
    IF it does amplify next week, then it doesn’t matter how cold it is, as the moisture source would be provided.

    Remember a few years back when it was below zero with heavy snow falling.
    It can happen. 😀

    1. JJ, just had a chance to review this.

      My take.

      Very VALID point taken on the uncertainty due to the energy over
      a sparse data area.

      However, the rest of what he said, I would categorize as PURE HYPE!

      That being said, WHAT IF?………

        1. It is under his link. But you dictate position…WP does not

          Or maybe it isn’t where you intended because it doesn’t agree.

          I’m flexible and can go with either 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Lots and lots of cold & dry flow. Assume that will boot most everything & anything OTS. Maybe I’ll just go back into hibernation for January.

      1. I’ll give it a few more days, but if both of those systems
        next week become a NO SHOW, I’m DONE. I GIVE UP!

        Call me in April

    1. I’m not looking forward to my first game at all . It’s just going to be totally frigid there.

    1. Funny. I was just looking at that this morning too. I even went into the NWS Orlando discusssion.

      GFS drives it even further south looking ahead. Check out the lower heights progged to drive all the way down into corpus. Lots of cold high pressure over most U.S.

  30. 3 winter storm threats on the 12z Euro: 1/4, 1/6, and gearing up for another one around 1/9. Dolly is a size DD monster on that run. They all look too close for comfort to me. I would be surprised if we go through the first two weeks of January cold and dry with no snow at all. Watch for the flow to amplify enough to get some snow in here with one of those late week threats next week. I’ll be interested to see with the Euro ensembles show in a bit….

    1. No threat on 1/4. After that, it does not look good so far, but there is time.

      1/9 will be a Lakes Cutter, mark my words. 😀

      1. No threat on 1/4? That’s a big storm over the ocean and already scraping the Cape on that run. Plenty of time to shift a few hundred miles back west on a day 6 forecast.

        And the 1/9 setup looks beautiful….juicy storm approaching from the SW and cold high to the north. Aint no way that’s cutting!

        1. Disagree on both counts, sorry.

          NO way tomorrow’s comes closer. I’ll eat my shorts if it does.

          re: 1/9
          I smell a cutter big time. Sure, there is tons of time on
          this baby.

          Sooner or later we’ll know the score.

          1. Wow! I’m losing it big time.
            Honestly, when I saw 1/4, in my mind I was thinking tomorrow? Why? Don’t ask me, I haven’t a clue. A Senior Moment???

            Sorry about that.

            Yes, OF COURSE there is time for the 1/4 event to shift. Absolutely positively.

            Not budging on the 1/9 at this juncture. 😀

            1. It always makes me happy when others have a senior moment….I don’t feel so alone ;). However, even my kids are confused as to what day it is. I’d say you are doing great OS

    2. I am beginning to wonder if this “front loaded” winter will be noted more for the intense cold as opposed to snowfall. If cold highs are going to penetrate so far south, potential storms will be unable to form or those that pass just underneath us will be too far south and east.

    1. Funny, I don’t find it insane in the slightest. True, is is damn cold. No denying
      that, but hey it’s Winter in New England. It happens.

      1. I would agree. I know we have an unusually long streak potential but I think this is more what we used to have….consistent cold where ski areas had snow, water areas were frozen enough to fish and skate, etc.

  33. We haven’t had a long stretch of cold weather since Feb 2015 which in places set records for the coldest month on record. Past two winters 15-16 and 16-17 were quick cold shots but nothing long lasting.

  34. My son is in Montreal and he just texted me that it was SNOWING lightly there
    with the temperature at -2. His return flight is tonight and he said 1/2 the flights
    have delays. So far his flight for later this evening is on time.

  36. You all keep missing my point on the front loaded winter. I was talking about cold and snow. And that did NOT, I repeat for about the 12th time, NOT referring to massive snowfall totals. I was trying to make this point: More than half of the snow for the season will fall before the climate mid point (February 2), and in my opinion most of it before January 15. THAT is a front-loaded winter. It’s basically well on its way to verifying in terms of snow, and certainly in terms of cold, since long range indications are for milder (compared to average) later in January and beyond.

    Here’s a context example: Say we have a winter in which 10 inches of snow falls at Boston, with 7 inches of it falling in the first half and 3 in the second half. That, too, is front-loaded. It has nothing to do with the seasonal total.

      2. BAHAHAHA no…

        Boston ends up somewhat close to normal, maybe slightly below.

        I have near normal snow for the season which is regionwide. It will vary somewhat.

        1. My pet peeve is people forgetting about averages. For example (hypothetical – totally made up numbers):

          Winter 1: 90″ snow
          Winter 2: 10″ snow
          Average of both Winters 1 and 2 is 50″
          Average snow for this fictional area overall: 55″

          So Winter 1 is classified as “unprecedented snow”…”once in a lifetime…”

          Winter 2 is classified as “the result of man made climate change”…”We pulled out of the Paris Accord…”

          Meanwhile – on the larger pic – we are about dead average for winters and it’s a non-issue.

          I know this was dumbed down but just trying to make a point.

          1. All debates aside, the weather is impacted by many things and it impacts many things. Our measurements can be called into question in many ways, from many angles. This is a fact of science in general, not just meteorology.

            Boston’s snowiest decade was the 1990s. Boston’s snowiest 10 year period are the last 10 years, but again this goes back to 1872, a wink of time on the larger scale.

            1. Yeah good info. The lack of massive historical (and accurate) data is something you must have to deal with all the time. That’s why comments about XTREME temps or snow or whatever are based on what baseline? 100-200 year records? That’s not far enough to draw any conclusive cycle.

              1. However, all debates aside, we do know for a fact that we are polluting the land, sky, water and that ….whether if impacts climate….it needs to stop.

                As is the case with TKs frustration with not understanding what front loaded winter means, the fact folks do not understand that simple absolute frustrates me.

                1. “The planet has been here four and a half billion years. We’ve been here, what? A hundred thousand? Maybe two hundred thousand and we’ve only been engaged in heavy industry for a little over two hundred years. Two hundred years versus four and a half billion. And we have the conceit to think that somehow we’re a threat? That somehow we’re gonna put in jeopardy this beautiful little blue-green ball that’s just a floatin’ around the sun? The planet has been through a lot worse than us. Been through all kinds of things worse than us. Been through earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar flares, sunspots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the poles, hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and asteroids, and meteors, world-wide floods, tidal waves, world-wide fires, erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages, and we think some plastic bags and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference?” – George Carlin

          2. Hey….we didn’t all misunderstand.

            As far as averages….if the 90″ of snow is a record amount of snow for that winter….then it is unprecedented, understanding that there is no way to know what occurred before records.

              1. I never said it was. Like you, I commented. And we won’t get into the fake news crowd. I detest that phrase.

    3. It wasn’t that hard to understand what you meant by front end loader . It can’t get much easier than how you explained it

  38. Skied Wachusett today.
    Definitely nippy: low single digits in the early to mid- a.m., but the sun worked its way out and the temps got into low teens and it felt downright balmy 🙂
    Wind was moderate and the man-made snow in these temps was very nice powder, —
    while not approaching champagne, of course 🙂
    Very light flakes falling as I left at 2:30
    I love winter and fall. Summer is OK if it stays below 74.
    Spring is largely a myth around here. It often lasts about two weeks, to my mind.

  40. A reinforcing shot of arctic air ???

    Mt Washington’s temp went from +5 to -12 in the last 90 minutes, as their wind direction switched from S to NW.

  41. sorry, i will state again, We do have the means to record well passed 100/200 years, I could show you some of the tech/ methods I have used in the lab.

    2. I don’t think so. I think the record low maximum for today is much lower. Record low for this date is -17, so I would imagine the high for the day would have been lower than +14. That data is so hard to find.

  44. Well lo and behold….the 0z Euro and GFS have both trended back west and closer to the coast with the Thursday storm. Both bring the snow shield into eastern MA with the Euro dropping up to 4” of snow and greater than a foot in down east Maine. Definitely still a watcher!

    1. Indeed. Did you see my explanation of why I disagreed on the 1/4 event?

      Yup, trending back Westward now.

      The thing I find most interesting is the potential strength of this system.

      GFS has it go to 952 mb East of us and 948 Near Nova Scotia.

      Euro has it at 953 mb ESE of Nantucket, still South of our latitude.

      CMC has it farther off shore at 973 mb.

      IF that thing gets close enough it could me a MONSTER here.

      1. I can vouch for that. I heard it from you about five months ago. I had my plan b and c,d,e all ready then because I considered it a lock 🙂

  48. JPDave if I get an inch I would be surprised. It’s more picturesque seeing the very light snow fall.

    1. AND if we do end up with significant snow on Thursday, that would be a pretty decent snow pack adding to the cold.

      1. They have to put something there. And it’s probably similar to or exactly what the ECMWF has. I haven’t looked at its temps today.

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