Monday Forecast

240 Comments

7:34AM

Happy New Year to all!

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)
Arctic cold that arrived as 2017 wound down remains in place as 2018 begins. It will ease up slightly by midweek and at this time a large and powerful ocean storm will develop to the south of New England. Current indications are that it will track too far east for a direct hit, but may bring a moderate snowfall and a lot of wind to Cape Cod, and a glancing blow to the remainder of southeastern New England. Will continue to watch. A reinforcement of Arctic air arrives at the end of the week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 7-14. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0 at times.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows -6 to -1 interior valleys, 0-6 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill around -10 at times.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -3 to +8, coldest interior valleys. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow likely east, slight chance of snow west, ending late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)
Risk of snow showers early in the weekend then fair and extremely cold. A risk of snow/mix with moderating temperatures January 8 followed by colder and drier again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)
Another storm threat during the middle of this period. Temperatures generally below normal.

240 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. I know the NAM isn’t so hot at 84 hours.

      So the Score is as follows:

      Models supporting a simple graze or brush by are:

      Euro
      GFS
      FIM
      JMA

      Models Coming closer for a larger impact

      CMC
      UKMET
      NAM
      NAVGEM

          1. Well, WHW offers excellent forecast and detailed weather information, but I do not recall TK saying that he cranks out that information from his WHW computer model. 😀

            1. I saw the WHW model for the storm… It was a stick figure of dolly Parton dancing on the tip of Massachusetts while singing 9 to 5, so it sounds like we get anywhere between 5 to 9 inches.

  3. Happy New Year Everyone! 🙂

    Happy 70th Anniversary WBZ-TV!!
    1948-2018 😀

    It seems like just yesterday it was only their 35th. 😉

    1. And to think, our family had a television set to watch that. I was too young to remember the 1st broadcast, but I Do remember viewing that TV from my crib. I can still remember credits rolling from my Dad’s favorite Western. Little dinky
      12 inch screen.

  11. The next Pats game is Saturday 1/13 at 8:15 p.m.

    TK – Will we still be in the very cold pattern? Probably a stupid question but I just had to ask anyway. 😀

  12. Good Morning and Happy New Year Everyone!!! I look forward to another great year of blogging with all of you once again.
    Here are my bold weather predictions for 2018. I look forward to reading all of yours and also what TK has to say about the weather for the year ahead.
    Widespread double digit snowfall will happen in February
    First few weeks of March will be mild and people will think were done with snow but right around the spring equinox will have a snowstorm
    April up and down and temps
    Sustained warmth begins middle of May
    Warmer than normal summer. All recording stations in SNE will have between 5 and 7 more 90 degree days than normal. Peak of the heat mid July through early August Normal amount of thunderstorm days which include 1-2 weak tornadoes.
    Slightly above normal hurricane season. 1-2 land falling hurricanes in U.S.
    Another warm fall
    First widespread snowfall will come the week before Christmas which will give us a White Christmas

  13. It always seems we get a big one in February so that is why I went with that. If one of my predictions at the end of the year ends up right I will be happy.

    1. Me too. Hope you are correct. But in all honesty, once it turns mild,
      I am good with it staying mild and we don’t need a cold spell and snow storm
      to disrupt that. I either want to stay cold and snowy until Spring, or If it flips
      to a warm pattern, then say that way.

      Of course, I won’t get my way, that’s for sure.

  15. I’ll feel better once the euro and gfs are both on board. I think all models give us at least some snow for Thursday so putting snow in the forecast makes sense, at least for eastern MA

  19. Look at that area of SC with the snow on 12z NAM. Over done but don’t see snowfall accumulations to often in that part of the country.

  20. Discussion from NWS puts it all in perspective

    Model guidance suite continues to advertise explosive
    cyclogenesis over the ocean south of New Eng with potential for
    a sub 960 mb low, but consensus is still for an offshore track
    with UKMET on the western edge of the track envelope. Still a
    lot of spread among the GEFS and EPS ensemble members as track
    of storm will hinge on complex interaction of lead shortwave
    lifting NE from the Gulf coast and northern stream energy diving
    into the Great Lakes. A more amplified Great Lakes trough would
    increase probability of a further west track closer to New Eng
    and a major winter storm. Less amplification favors a more
    offshore track and lighter snowfall. The lead shortwave will be
    entering the NW CONUS this morning but second shortwave which is
    the critical piece in determining the amplification of the
    Great Lakes trough is still over the Pacific and moving into
    western Canada this morning. This shortwave will not be well
    sampled by upper air network until tonight so suspect 00z Tue or
    12z Tue model suite will have a better handle on resolving the
    finer details.

    1. I almost watched that the other day. Thank you for the recommendation. Sounds like a good New Year’s Eve. Four year old grandson and I had beef tenderloin for dinner. He preferred the asapagus and mashed potato and did ask why the piece of meat lasted so long in his mouth rather than doing down to his tummy. As tender as it was, it is still hard for kids to eat meat.

      I sat on the deck for a bit at midnight and heard the Sutton canon fired. I did break down and put a blanket over my tee. It was a bit nippy 😉

  23. About 115 straight hrs below 20F at Logan and most of them haven’t been anywhere near 20F. At 4pm today, would be 5 full days.

    1. What is the record? I thought it was 100 hours, then Mike Wankum said
      it was 7 days and that Boston Would break it.

  26. Watching the 12z GFS, viewing the 500 mb map. There does appear to be some decent digging/sharpness to the southern part of the trof over the Deep South.

    2. Agreed ……. trying to catch it as it approaches our latitude.

      As cold as it’s been, I don’t think we’d want it to catch the southern stream system too early or you might introduce rain or mix at the coast. In a way, a somewhat offshore track might increase snow amounts near the coast, in spite of less QPF.

      1. Need something right in the middle of those 2 scenarios.
        The NAM actually probably has the best possible outcome.

      2. I was thinking the same Tom. We don’t want too much of a westward trend. In fact, I would just as soon deal with a 1-3″ simple “fluff” then 8″ of slop.

      1. I have had an absolute OBSESSION with snow storms since
        I was about 3 years old. It’s insane. It has never left me.

  37. It appears that for some strange meteorological reason in spite of the low being hundreds of miles offshore, it is still able to somehow drag mild air westward along with its moisture eventually negating our current cold air? Is that a realistic possibility?

      1. Boston Bouy

        Water Temperature (WTMP): 43.7 °F

        Stellwagen

        Water Temperature (WTMP): 42.3 °F

        It’s getting there, but IF you place a 35-40 mph Wind
        Over it blowing onto shore, well, you do the math.

        IF the snow intensity were good enough, we would be OK
        with those temps, however, if it is just a lighter to at most
        moderate, then it could warm up enough for rain.

        PLUS, unfortunately the COLD will have modified a great deal
        by the time the storm arrives. If it came today we’d be fine.

  38. Good tweet from meteorologist Steve DiMartino and why we keep tabs on this.
    I want to see what the 12Z guidance does this afternoon. Won’t take much of a shift west in the vorticity to create a big problem for our region. This kind of reminds me of the Boxer Day Blizzard where guidance didn’t pick up threat until 36 hours out.

  39. JPDave there was chatter here on the blog about that Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 and I believe it was AceMaster who mentioned the same thing Steve DiMartino mentioned in his tweet. We don’t need a huge shift west here.

  40. Here is Steve DiMartino’s answer to a question about what the 12z NAM is showing.
    Steve what is kicking nam out and why doesn’t it have precip on western side?

    Because, IMO, it’s a mesoscale model in a poor resolution state that is struggling to handle the 500 MB vorticities. It’s like using the GFS beyond 180 hours. I only use NAM up to 60 HR at most, best under 48 hours.

      1. Posted on the American weather blog. You can get it out to hr 84 by viewing the snow accumulation map, Copying the link and opening it in a new tab and change the hr from 48 to 84.

          1. Can’t get it to work myself right now either… I’m on my phone. Going to try again later when I am back on my computer.

            1. No hurries. We had that link you posted.
              I just wanted the main link to add to
              my bookmarks.

              Many thanks

    3. That is water equivalent for the snow.

      30 mm = roughly 1.2 inches
      40 mm = roughly 1.6 inches

      At 10:1 that would equate to roughly 12-16 inches.
      Not sure the ratio would be higher (could be 11 or 12:1), and it could actually be lower, depending (8 or 9:1)

  45. 0Z Runs tonight will give us a much better clue as to what might transpire.
    I look forward to those and of course the 12Z runs tomorrow.

    I am getting that sneaky feeling. We shall see.

    Now watch the Euro dash all hopes. 😀 😀 😀

  50. Happy New Year all! Best wishes for a great year ahead!

    Watching Thursday closely. Massive ocean storm. It’s close. I still like the graze idea, but that’s not a very high confidence forecast. I find it interesting how most of the 12z guidance (NAM, GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, JMA) shifted at least a little west with the low center, but the more reliable UKMET actually shifted east. Guess it all comes down to the mighty Euro 🙂

  51. Even if it is a graze which I think it will be, I am wondering if and how much snow it will throwback onto the mainland. I do remember a storm a few years ago that was throwing snow into SNE though it was something like 500 miles offshore.

  52. 12:00 noon obs. at Logan = 9F

    I know I speak heresy here but IMHO this cold is TOTALLY BEYOND INSANE!!

  53. Didn’t Dr. Cohen predict this cold stretch months ago? I seem to remember people thinking he was crazy especially in a La Niña winter

  54. From the patriots game.
    Offense will get back once they play in the playoffs.
    We will be getting most of the recievers back as well as running backs. BY the way Lewis is a beast.
    Brady was not playing bad yesterday they were playing extremely conservative and he was not willing to use plays that could put a receiver in harms way.
    Defense is a beast and Harrison is just helping. Front seven will be greatly improved especially with voy back in and Harrison now in it as well.

    2. Agree re: playing conservatively. Brady missed several passes being cautious; sure to avoid an interception with a big lead.
      Interesting he never threw to Gronk. Maybe to just let them double and triple him and make sure Gronk avoided injury.
      Defense has had trouble versus the run; we shall see.

      1. make sure gronk avoided injury plus the near 2 mill in playing bonus depending on how many catches he caught.

  57. TK and company. Is this storm at similar to the one we barely missed Jan 16 two years ago. I recall you saying, TK, that most folks don’t realize what a massive storm we barely missed

  58. 12z Euro is a grazer like the GFS and delivers 1-3” to eastern SNE. Very strong storm in the 950’s mb at the latitude of Cape Cod but center of low pressure well off shore.

  59. Mark I just saw Ryan Hanrhan’s tweet saying the operational GFS remains dry outlier and the most likely outcome for CT is light snow and wind. He would not rule out a more significant storm.

  61. I think it’s increasingly safe to say that the storm we’ll be tracking in a few days will likely be the deepest/strongest coastal storm of this winter season. It’s becoming a very high stakes forecast given the strength of the storm and the magnitude of cold air coming in behind it, which will likely exceed what we’re dealing with today. Power outages will be a major concern if the storm ends up west. Much as I love a good snowstorm, we’ll be better off with just a graze from this thing if it develops the level of intensity that all current guidance suggests.

  62. Some of the EURO ensembles have trended west. Will see if this ends up being like the Boxing Day Blizzard where the models really didn’t start to show a big impact until 36 hours prior. Me personally I think it is a graze.

  64. Dr. Cohen’s prediction of a cold wave was risky but he had good basis for it. La Nina winters have a wider range of patterns than El Nino ones. Some of our most intense cold has come in La Nina patterns of the type we have now. Kudos to the doctor. And I would never have said his prediction of 64 inches for Boston was nuts. I have something closer to normal, but ONE large storm with a 300 mile track variation can make all the difference. If there is anything that exemplifies the inexactness of meteorological prediction, this is it.

  65. I’ll be the contrarian on the Pats. I think they are in trouble. They’ve regressed. And mainly on offense. Brady’s hurt, no doubt in my mind. Yesterday the offense was anemic. Go rewatch the game. They were pitiful on 3rd down conversions. They had several long, and I mean long pass interference penalties by the Jets that put them down in the red zone that set up at least 2 scores. Before that they couldn’t get out of their own way. Yea hogan might play, but he hasn’t played since week 8. Don’t expect him to do a whole lot.
    Defense is mediocre. The front 7 at times looks good, other times putrid. Still have a hard time getting off the field on 3rd down.
    Yea they are 13-3, I get that too. Part of it is the play this year across the NFL wasnt that good. The AFC east was weak as usual. And Miami beat them in a horrid loss. They played the AFC West. KC tore them a new one and Denver, LA, and Oakland are terrible. You can name the argument that the NFC south was ok. Pats have Atalantas number, and the did handle the Saints. Tampa stinksitll. E and they are embarased by Carolina. They barely beat the Steelers and probably should have lost. Houston gave them a game with no QB.
    So we’ll see. They’ll play KC again. Hopefully a better outcome. If thry make it past that, it’ll be Pitt or Jacksonville. Either one can give them fits.

    Read Borge’s column in the Herald today. He’s got a pretty good handle on things.

    1. I think you are being chicken little.

      Brady is fine. Plus he has 2 weeks to recover even if there is a nagging injury. The game plan called for no targets to Gronk.
      He didn’t have Hogan and he didn’t have Burkhead or White.

      Plus it was an absolute freezer at the stadium and Brady was chucking hunks
      of cement.

      Cut em some slack. Brady and the team will be fine. Does it mean
      they make it to and win the Super Bowl. No. But it’s not as bad as
      you portray it either.

  66. I will post my first shot at solid #’s tonight in the comments section, but I can hint to you now that I am leaning toward a moderate snowfall for the South Shore to Cape Cod with the possibility of rain involved for Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket due to air that modifies prior to the storm and warmer ocean water, and a light snowfall elsewhere. Expecting things to move fast enough for us to possibly see the sun west of the city before Thursday is over.

    1. Interesting how Nantucket has its own climate separate from the rest of NE. I would also be curious if there is a slight difference in wildlife as well.

  68. 15Z SREF Ensemble Mean snow for Boston is now: 10.84 inches.
    Up about 3 inches from the 9Z run. Take what you want from that.

    1. Member high is 25.35 inches.
      Member low is 0.00

      How’s that for an ensemble spread. 😀 😀 😀

  69. break up by models ( strength and amount of liquid precip)
    EURO: 956MB .
    euro ensemble mean: 980ish
    EURO control 950mb storm:
    GFS: 960mb
    GFS ensemble 970
    German 958
    Canadian 951
    canadian ensemble 973
    UKMET model (guessing what its like closest pass) around 970
    NAM 961MB
    Thats 4 below and 4 above and two around 960 mb
    Range of precipitation at 5 locations including GFS lowest and canadian highest
    Hyannis .4 to 2 inches
    Plymouth .25 to 1.6
    Boston .15-1.6
    Worcester .1 to 1 inch
    Lowell .1 to 1.2

    Excluding GFS and canadian
    Hyannis .8 to 1.2 inches
    Plymouth .4 to 1.0
    Boston .25-.6
    Worcester .1 to.45 inch
    Lowell .1 to .5

    we will see a narrowing of this late tonight or tomorrow 🙂 I am thinking areas in SE mass need to watch this but again will get a better handle on this tonight/tomorrow

  71. If I am reading things correctly and it is tough with 24 hour increments, but
    to me it looks as though the Euro Ensemble mean is a bit more West than the
    operational run.

    I, for one, am beginning to worry that this becomes quite an impactful storm for
    the Boston area. Of course, time will tell, but It is beginning to smell like an event.

  73. I could see a scenario where the coastal Southeast gets dumped on and we mainly escape. It’s still just a little early to know with much confidence. Tomorrow morning I’ll have numbers.

    I agree in large part with Blackstone on the Pats. Not impressed by the offense. And not confident in how the defense will stand up against a good QB like Alex Smith. At the same time, there are no elite teams out there. It’s wide open, and I think in a year like this the experience of BB and TB12 will make a difference. I think we’re in for some exciting games.

    1. Exciting games, yes. Pats in trouble? I don’t think so.
      Does it mean they, win? Nope. Anything can happen. An ill-timed fumble or interception can mean the game.

      I certainly don’t expect any blow-outs. I do think they make the SB, but
      It would be very tough for them to pull 0ut a win. They can do it, but it
      won’t be easy and a loss would not surprise me. Again, I think they at least get there for another appearance.

    2. Some here are forgetting that other than Buffalo and Pittsburgh, these teams are not used to extreme cold…a HUGE factor! Not worried in the least for the 1st round anyway.

      1. I would say that Pittsburgh is the only team in the league that could deny the Pats another trip to the SB.

        1. the Jags and steelers could win against the pats as well as KC possibly.
          NFC. Vikings, Saints and Rams could all beat the patriots.

          PS if the patriots are not in the Superbowl, I would want the vikings to get in and win it.

  74. So far, 18Z GFS developing system farther off shore than the NAM and therefore
    likely continues its theme of a more off shore passage.

    1. However, upper winds are really digging, S to N at 500 and 330 mb
      and SSW to NNE at 200 mb. That could bring it closer.

  75. Thank you, TK!

    Happy 2018 to all at WHW!

    Blackstone, I agree with your assessment of the Patriots. They’re very fortunate to have finished 13 and 3. On defense, they’re unable to stop the run and have had trouble putting pressure on the QB. James Harrison may help a little in this area. On offense, they’ve looked fair but certainly not good for quite some time. Brady misses Edelman. James White has not been the same. All this said, their coaching is superior and their opportunism is second-to-none. This may carry them through the playoffs as the competition is really not very good in either conference.

    Philip, Nantucket has a different climate from Boston and vicinity. This impacts its weather of course, vegetation, soil, and wildlife. The key word is temperate as cold air coming from the continent (whether a northwesterly, a westerly, or a southwesterly) moderates temperatures significantly in all seasons. It’s rare for Nantucket to have a 90F day. Similarly it’s rare for temperatures to drop into the single digits (though they have during this cold spell). Though Nantucket has much more variability in weather than the south of England and the islands off of the southeast coast of England (eg, Jersey) summers on Nantucket remind me of Jersey, and winters are a bit more like what they are in the Netherlands.

    1. I should have said “cold air in the winter and warm air in the summer” gets moderated as it traverses ocean water.

  76. Beware of CF issues on the NAM, especially the lower res ones. This will result in a juicier track further west on the model that is likely INCORRECT.

  77. Happy New Year everyone!

    We are moving on Wed and Thur so I am watching this conversation with baited breath to see how this situation evolves. Thankfully our house sale closing isn’t until Monday. Then we stay with family in Concord for a few weeks and close on our new home in Harvard on 3/2. Happy to say this move has continued to distract me from our arctic blast (I’m not quite as enthusiastic about cold weather as JpDave!)! But I have mixed emotions re date of pats game as we are heading to Oahu and will be in flight during the game on 1/13. But I guess it’s good because if we lose – well heck, I’m in Hawaii. And if we win – we won and I am in Hawaii!!!!

  81. Thanks Joshua for your info on Nantucket. I suspect that even tough it rarely gets to 90F, it has the highest humidity levels in all of NE. Also I would bet in terms of wildlife it doesn’t include bears, coyotes, or deer.

  83. Philip, Unlike the Cape and MV, Nantucket doesn’t have extensive woodlands. In fact, there is relatively little forest, certainly not enough to accommodate bears, although probably enough for foxes and coyotes. Coyotes have been trekking east towards the coast for a long time. In the early 1980s it was uncommon to see coyotes in the suburbs of Boston. Now, it’s quite common. I doubt, however, that coyotes have reached the islands unless they boarded the Steamship Authority as stowaways. You may recall that during the 2014-2015 winter Massachusetts Bay froze and pictures were taken of coyotes roaming the ice between the Harbor islands and Hull/Weymouth. Of course that would be a route for coyotes to make it to islands from the mainland.

    1. Joshua. coyotes are now VERY common within the city itself.
      I have seen them less than 1/2 mile from my house.
      They’re all over W. Roxbury and Brookline. (yes I know Brookline isn’t boston, but it is less than 1/2 mile from my house).

      1. I’ll bet anything they are in JP. The 2 I saw in Brookline were literally a stone’s throw from JP.

    2. As well as coydogs and coywolves which we have here. And our resident bobcat or three.

      These incredible creatures are smarter than man. They have figured ways to outwit our encroachment and pollution.

  84. For model watchers: You’ll see output from the short range HRDPS model now on some sites, such as Tropical Tidbits. This model is based off the GEM (CMC) and its usefulness is probably going to be limited.

  85. Pete B tweeted out the EPS Ensemble Mean snow map—showing 6 inches for eastern mass with some locally higher amounts in SE mass. Also said the wind and coastal concerns would be the story—not the snowfall. Hoping no snow day Thursday…it’s been a long week +at home!

  86. At this point we need some precipitation, so snow (most of us) and cold rain (Outer Cape and Islands) would be welcome on Thursday. It’s been very dry for a while, especially around Boston.

    1. NWS discussion

      Wednesday night and Thursday…

      12Z guidance continues to signal explosive cyclogenesis as it
      pushes NE during this timeframe. Still model solution spread in
      how deep this low becomes as well as its track up the coast.
      Models are deepening this system down to possibly a sub-960 hPa
      low as it passes during Thu. With a system this deep, it will
      have an expansive circulation so will likely see strong N-NE
      winds and the possibility of plowable snow across portions of
      the region. May also see a snow/rain or even changeover to rain
      across Cape Cod and the islands as milder air wraps around the
      low.

      Another issue will be astronomical high tides which are
      occurring this week. So, depending upon the position of the low
      and the wind strength, could see some issues along the coast
      during high tide which will occur around the midday to mid
      afternoon Thu and possibly Fri.

      Have carried CAT POPs across E Mass into RI on Thu with likely
      POPs across the remainder of the region. It does appear that
      some snow will fall, just how much and where the heavier snow
      will fall is still in question.

      1. Heard south shore would be the jackpot not Boston , of course way early for that statement.

        1. Look at their map. They have a 6 inch Jackpot in SE MA, but that is hardly a ton more than they have for Boston at 5 inches.

          1. Ok i know i have given you a little ribbing in he past about snow (all in good fun of course) but i really hope we get a Decent hit from this!! 1’+

  89. Lot of stuff messing with the models right now. Convective feedback is a big one, which TK mentioned. The NAM and especially the 3km NAM will fall victim to this; the 3km version is actually falling victim to some of the same issues that cause it to absurdly over-deepen every tropical system in the Atlantic; it can’t handle all that latent heat release. Even the RGEM can be susceptible to this. Multiple vorticity centers is another issue. Not something models resolve well, and sometimes it can be difficult to determine which vort center will become dominant until it actually happens, and even then there can be “satellite” centers/vort maxes which influence the overall track. Again, something that happens in tropical cyclones quite often. And of course, we’re dealing with the fact that we have multiple pieces of energy with very different origins interacting, and those interactions haven’t started yet. These issues don’t necessarily make one outcome more likely than the other, but as you can imagine they do lower forecast confidence.

  90. I’ve watched the performance of the HRDPS for awhile; it’s an impressive piece of technology, higher resolution than the HRRR and run out to 48 hours. It’s not bad from my experience. Can run a high QPF bias at times. But it’s worth a peek inside 36 hours of an event, not something you would want to buy in all on its own, but just another piece of guidance. Decent with summer convection also.

    I think the NWS pretty much just took a super-blend of models on that first map, which is about all you can do at this stage. If I had to produce a map right now, it would probably look something like that, but with a tighter western edge.

  91. Exciting Rose Bowl game going on…first OT in its history. Now double OT as both OK and Georgia kicked FGs

  93. 00z NAM looks like it keeps the West theme so far. I know there is concern of CF with the NAM but still interesting nonetheless. Should have a clear picture by 12z tomorrow for sure.

  94. From cranky

    We’re developing early here & it’s gunna be west. Going for that gradient at first (then onto the next benchmark, near north carolina, to sniff out the dumbbell swing process, for points north)

  96. I would really pay attention to the 0z guidance. There were some substantial changes, for this range, in the upper air pattern on the 0z NAM. Resulted in an eastward shift of the low. I suspect the rest of the 0z guidance follows that trend, and if so I will be much more confident tomorrow morning on a graze versus a big hit. I suspect we basically have full sampling of our pieces at this point.

    1. Yeah letting the 00z NAM run it’s full course it’s clesrly east of earlier runs. A lot of moving parts for sure.

    2. Interestingly, some questionable activity beyond 60 hours seemed to pull the low center west a little, back in line with the 18z run at least.

  97. Something else to watch, which TK mentioned some time ago- this system will undergo its most explosive development well to our south and well south of the typical location for Nor’easters. It will still be deepening as it passes us, but not as quickly. Any convective elements will be waning by the time it gets here. The heaviest precipitation rates in these storms tends to correspond to the period of maximum deepening, not the period of absolute maximum intensity. So even in the biggest hit scenario, there is somewhat of a cap on QPF. Ratios could be pretty good away from the coast though.

  100. At this time i am leaning towards a miss in terms of snow with maybe a few inches south and east of Boston, besides for the cape and I feel like it will be more due to ocean enhancement with the north/northeast wind, than the actual low pressure. I am just having a hunch we get skunked. What will not be changed is possible coastal concerns.

  101. WOW!! 06Z NAM good shift westward bringing the storm closer to benchmark. Hopefully this is the trend today

    1. Hi Jj. For some reason tropical tidbits doesn’t provide the 32km nam snow map so thsnks fir posting. Fwiw the 3k and the 12km nam also has the storm west. Dying to see the 6z gfs

  103. Impressive pressure drop on the weather models with this storm system. Regardless of track another shot of artic air for Fri and the weekend.

    1. I’m with you ace. that sucker screams along though doesn’t it. Either way, won’t take much qpf to put down at least a few inches.

  107. Looking like a possible big one Thursday during the day . Could this put down possible double digits . Already under storm watch .

    1. 6z NAM says double digits with a storm near benchmark. It won’t take much of a shift to the west to bring higher totals to SNE.

      1. I don’t think this one will fizzle as it’s a beast . Wind is also going to be a concern.

        1. Regardless of track another shot of artic air coming in for Fri and the weekend and it maybe worse than the one we had this past weekend. Hopefully we don’t have power outages with the cold conditions when this storm passes.

  108. Something you don’t see often winter weather advisories portions of the big bend of Florida and portions of south central Georgia from 1am Wed to 10am Wed.

  110. From Upton, NY Discussion
    06z NAM has shifted close to 40/70 benchmark which is within the spread seen with the SREF/ECMWF ensembles

    1. and part of the nws discussion

      Wednesday night into Thursday night…Moderate confidence.

      * Accumulating snowfall event for eastern half of the region
      * Strong gusty winds for the Cape and Islands
      * Coastal flooding issues for east MA Coastline

      Overview…

      Guidance is in general agreement with the upcoming system on
      Thursday. However, there are still some settled differences which
      could result in more or less snowfall. Currently, potent shortwave
      moving into the Rockies will be the focus for our system as it dives
      along the base of the elongated trough. Tropical moisture around the
      Bahamas will eventually become our surface low in the coming day as
      it gets picked up from the shortwave and moves up the coast towards
      New England. This trough will eventually become negative as the
      surface low undergoes rapid intensification and bombs out just east
      of the 40N/70W benchmark.

      This coastal low will be quite potent, with many models suggesting a
      pressure dropping to 960mb or lower. As a result, both winds and any
      precip from this system will extend far from the center resulting in
      effects from the storm for much of the region.

  113. Sorry, but to me, this is rapidly beginning to look like a very dangerous situation.
    There is a bit of time to escape this, but time is running out.

    At this point, the way to avoid the heavy snow, is a change to rain. but that adds its own
    set of problems on the backend when the new arctic cold rushes in. So no matter how one slices it, not looking so good, UNLESS it really does track more to the east which
    it still can.

    Anxioulsy waiting on the 12z runs.

    Nam is now in range and more so with 12z run.

  115. When you get gusts like what is being shown from the NAM you could lose power if you lose power your going to have a cold home with another shot of artic air coming Fri and the weekend.

  118. If we see model solutions ticking west near the benchmark your going to see number raised by the mets. If it goes the other way and ticks east mets will lower their numbers.
    To me now is how much snow

  119. New post!
    Kept snow totals under double digits for now. There may still be adjustments in this forecast. Will be out for the next 7 hours so limited comments. Will catch up later.

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