Wednesday Forecast UPDATE

128 Comments

4:58PM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)
This is an update to the morning post with a few cosmetic changes and minor tweaks to the snowfall and wind forecast. Generally added 1 or 2 inches to the snowfall forecast and 5 MPH to the wind forecast. A major storm will impact the region on Thursday. Significant snow will occur Thursday for much of the region, except starting as rain east of a line from near Plymouth MA to Newport RI including all of Cape Cod before changing to snow during the course of the storm. Based on the current expected track I’m expecting the following…
Snow accumulation: 8-12 inches in a wide swath from eastern CT and western RI to Worcester to Metro West of Boston to southeastern NH but with pockets of 12-16 inches possible favoring interior eastern MA mainly to the southwest of Boston and possibly along the North Shore communities, 4-8 inches of fluffy snow to the west of this area, and 4-8 inches of wetter snow to the east of this area lowering to 2-4 inches Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket as these areas start as rain first.
Visibility: Blizzard conditions are likely especially along the coast from near Boston and its immediate southern suburbs northward to the North Shore of MA and NH Seacoast, extending down through the South Shore and eventually Cape Cod after rain changes to snow – blizzard conditions are defined as very low visibility due to falling and/or blowing snow with winds sustained or frequently gusting to 35 MPH or greater.
Wind: Gusts as high as 45 MPH inland, 55 MPH coast, and 65 MPH or greater Cape Cod (see detailed forecast for more).
Coastal impact: Moderate to significant flooding likely especially at the time of high tide, especially northeast and north facing shores. Also, ice shoves are possible where ice has formed along the shore due to persistent very cold.
Timing of storm: Snow (rain Cape) arrives between 4AM and 7AM from south to north, peaks early to mid afternoon, ends early evening.
After the storm comes a blast of arctic air equal to or more intense than the one just-departed for Friday and Saturday.
Other notes: There could be a few surprises including a track wobble, dry slots, and synoptic bands of heavier snow, so please check the comments below and the Facebook page if you have access to it for updates.
Forecast details…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow developing south to north 4AM through dawn except rain much of southeastern MA and southeastern RI. Temperatures remain stead interior but rise to 30-37 coast with warmest Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming N.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow except rain changing to snow far southeastern areas. Snow will be heavy at times in bands. See above for details of snow accumulation and other storm impacts. Highs 25-37, mildest Cape Cod, in the morning, with slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon. Wind N increasing to 15-30 MPH interior and 25-40 MPH coast with higher gusts (see above for peak expected gusts).
THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow ending south to north evening. Clearing overnight. Temperatures fall to 15-22. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH, higher gusts. Blowing and drifting snow where dry snow fell and a flash freeze where wetter snow fell.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures fall to 5-12. Wind NW 25-35 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling well below 0 at times. Blowing and drifting snow where dry snow fell.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 5-15.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -15 to 0. Highs 10-20.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)
Potential unsettled weather (snow/mix) at the start and end of this period. Fair in between. Temperatures below normal overall but variable.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)
Potential unsettled weather early in the period (favoring snow but possible mix). Variable temperatures remaining below normal overall.

128 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast UPDATE”

  3. Thank you, TK. This is excellent and much appreciated. I will share with friends and family because I know they are curious as well.

    Also…………Thank you to all here for your incredible discussion as well as interpretation of the links you share.

    Thank you to the meteorologists who have had to figure this mess out and translate for the public.

  8. Interesting from NWS now has nothing Boston 12-18 and west 12-18 but Boston in the 8-12. Can’t find on the website but they tweeted it

  10. Thanks TK!

    Today’s high of 29 didn’t feel not one iota better than the day before or the day before that, etc. etc. AFAIC a new record of below 20 degrees was set at 8 days!

    A broken thermometer at Logan. 😉

    Just joking of course but I would be curious as to what the average wind chill was today.

  11. Thanks TK !

    It’s strange in marshfield tonight.

    Long lines for fuel. One station already out (only super left).

    Tons of people out. Supermarket packed.

    1. Same in pembroke Tom . Gas station lines 12 deep and markets & stores packed . Tom Rob Gilman is very concerned for down here And said snow will be what falls .

    2. Both GFS and Euro have trended colder for early next week with the storm now passing south of New England. Anything on the table at this point but at least portions of the area would see snow/mix based on the latest model runs.

  13. Can only imagine the wind and surge on some of those island in Downeast Maine and Canada. A 940 storm just offshore. Wow

    1. Looks like they are kidding. I’ve been following Eric’s coverage and think it has been honest and helpful. I’ve not known him to overstate which is why it seems as if it is more in jest.

      1. Totally agree about Eric. It was the link within the link above from CNN that I was referring to.

          1. Ahhh. For CNN I agree. It and Fox are completely useless. I don’t pay attention to either so am not at all surprised. Or Patch.

      2. Even his previous post about “who is ready to talk about a wintry mix/ trending colder” event next week seems tongue and cheek

        1. I do know Eric was upset about media calling this a winter hurricane.

          It is media such as these that give the Mets who care and who are responsible a bad name and it is a shame.

  18. Looking at radar reflectivity, both the HRRR and the RAP keep the heavier
    Echoes South and East of Boston. Hmmm I say. Hmmm I say.

  19. Was stuck on the phone and in meetings all day. What a drag.

    I guess it’s pretty much radar time now. Speed is a concern for me. Any easterly shift is too obviously. Top end will be tough. I like the map Rayno has. NWS might be a tad high but we’ll see.

  21. Do not ignore the HRRR and RAP. I suspect those looking for big snow in central MA, CT, and NH will be rather disappointed tomorrow. Still a decent storm I95 and eastward as depicted by those models, but you won’t get much west of ORH with those tracks. Holding my 10-15” range in eastern MA/RI for now, favoring the lower end. That 10-15 may wind up extending farther southeast as well, perhaps to the Canal.

      1. He is what was once the grand old party. I spent decades involved with the Republican Party campaigning for every republican elected during that time in MA. I had the pleasure of also having them as family friends and spending time discussing issues with them.

    2. I share their feelings. I work for a medical manufacturing company and unless a state of emergency is declared its business as usual. Thankfully I have the option of working from home but those on the production lines do not

    3. That was part of his comment

      “I’m urging the public to stay off the roads tomorrow and I encourage employers to allow employees to work from home,” Baker said today. He also said state offices will be closed tomorrow.

      Makes sense to me. With 1-2 inches an hour people on the road will only complicate things.

      1. Yes they will . Stay home & let crews handle this it’s our job & having motorists out & about who should not be out in conditions such as a blizzard both put you & us in danger . Stay home !!!!!!!

      2. The issue is if you sont declare a state of emergency then employers will want people to come in. Bad decision on his part imo.

        1. Exactly Hadi. He can urge people to stay off the roads till the cows come home but until he makes the official call companies won’t take it seriously

        2. Ah I see what you mean.

          Is this state of emergency qualified? Even TK has said this is a big storm but not anything we don’t see. It is nee England. When we had 30 inches, then yes. 12-16 or even 20 is a New England storm. I can think of many and none were state of emergency.

          What do you all believe should be the qualifying ingredients? Ace, you already said people need to go into your work.

          1. Adding that he’d be equally criticized if he did declare a state of emergency. Patrick was run over the coals for doing so a while back and it was an exceptional decision.

            1. Yea it’s a sticky situation. There’s money and livelihoods at stake. He’s damned if he does damned if he doesn’t

              1. I think the problem is that it isn’t as widespread as some. People complain when govt dictates and then the same people complain if it doesn’t. He left it up to common sense and we even complain about that.

                I’ll be damned if I can figure people out.

          2. If they call a SOE, we are much more likely to shut down production for the day. Not guaranteed, but more likely

          3. If in this case though you are in the blizzard zones , or wind zones , or both etc than an emergency in my opinion would be warranted that on top of 1-2 inches per hr snowfall .

    1. Its 14 with a dewpoint of 7 in my area. I don’t think it is going to take very long for the column to saturate once the steady precip moves in overhead.

    2. Yeah was just in Bald Head Island and right now snowing pretty good. My brothers kids school was cxl in Chapel Hill for 2-3 inches 🙂

    1. I keep checking in on the Wakefield, va. Radar to see if a band will develop over Richmond. Fighting dry air but I’m thinking it may fill in over time.

    1. We keep focusing on the snow totals but the wind and blowing snow are likely going to be the big stories in the end. I pity those who end up losing power with the brutal cold that is going to follow this system.

    2. I was at the Walmart Subway today for lunch and you’d think an asteroid’s shadow was on the horizon. Unreal. God forbid we go a few days without “food”. Might make for some better bloodwork for all of us at the doctor.

    3. So odd. I went with daughter around 9:00 this am In Sutton and it was well stocked and quiet. Son in law stopped on way home from work late pm and said if was quiet and stocked.

      Then …sutton was voted 7th most peaceful town in the state. Maybe saner heads prevail 😉 😉 😉 😉

        1. You were in my backyard. Wish I’d known.

          I figure it was a fluke here but I was completely surprised.

            1. I would really enjoy that. Please let me know next time. Today work had me busy but I’m catching up after more than 2 weeks odd. Usually I can break away

  36. The water vapor loop is quite impressive. Tremendous amount of digging forcing a bend in the jet stream and forcing the bomb to tuck in right over the 40/70. If it wasn’t for the progressive nature of this storm as is typically the case, most of eastern mass would be measuring in feet. Nevertheless, rapid cyclogenesis will induce dangerous snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour where mesoscale banding occurs. Widespread 12-18 inches east of Worcester. 12-15 inches will be common with pockets of 18 inches. Someone sees 20 out of this when it all winds down very early tomorrow evening. The dangerously cold winds is not getting enough attention as the storm really deepens and frigid air moves in behind the departing bomb. Stay warm and safe everybody and fire up the generators.

  37. bastardi has me hooked right now watching wind directions on buoys off NC coast. This weather bug I have is brutal sometimes.

      1. Yeah, he’s a toolbox. I ignore his political and social rants. He has decent insight and tips on nuance in modeling though you might not always hear. Just have to sift through the nonsense.

    1. My barometer reading when I got home tonight was 1027MB. Can’t wait to see how low it gets tomorrow. Plus this will be the first real good spin of my anemometer santa dropped off.

          1. For where I am out in Worc. Hills, I figure I could multiply that times 1.5 or something for higher ratio. Pretty safe multiplier I figure

    1. They may see rain for a brief period of time but the dynamics will quickly change everything over to heavy snow even down through the canal

  40. Re: declaring a state of emergency or not. A SOE declaration is really just a bureaucratic exercise for mobilizing resources to respond to a situation, and to potentially set the stage for federal reimbursement. It has an unintended side effect of heightening public awareness of a situation. But the declaration is simply the first step in requesting, and potentially receiving, federal disaster reimbursement.

    Getting down into the nitty gritty details, federal reimbursement for a “disaster” is based upon the total damages occurring in individual counties, and whether the damage is greater than a previously set monetary value. With this particular storm, the only counties that might be in danger of tripping the damage threshold would be if there was massive damage on the coast.

    For very large snow storms, federal snow assistance may be available, again on a county basis. But federal snow assistance is based upon the storm snowfall being in the 95 percentile (or some similar value) of snow totals. In Central MA, that means 30″+ snow totals. Recent storms that were FEMA reimbursable (75% federal share) were the blizzards in 2013 and 2015.

    Long story short, this storm won’t rise to the level of a 30″+ storm, and unless there is massive coastal or power infrastructure, this will not be a storm eligible for disaster assistance. Therefore, there is no need for a State of Emergency declaration, as the likelihood of any county tripping the damage threshold is low. Small amount of damage means no federal reimbursement, so no need for a SOE declaration.

    While it helps drive home the potential impact of a situation, a declaration is not meant to keep people out of work.

    1. Excellent definition. Thank you.

      Am I correc that should there be severe coastal damage…and I sure hope not…that the governor can still declare a state of emergency. ???

      1. Yes. However, individual communities in this situation would actually do individual SOE declarations for their town first. And then the State could then do one if the damage is seen on a wider basis throughout the county.

        1. it’d be epic and maybe my big storm greed would be satisfied for a day or two longer than usual which is just one day as it stands currently. Flooding would be worse though with water piling over multiple tide cycles. That would bum me out.

  44. NWS Tweet

    Quick look at latest model guidance suggests forecast is on track for snow, wind, & coastal flooding. We may need to bump up snowfall totals near Cape Cod Canal & will assess that overnight.

    1. Interesting. Both the 0z GFS and CMC have come in further west and bring the rain/snow line NW of the Canal. They must be ignoring the global models at this point or the tweet is not recent

      2. Gfs way too mild at 925mb and lower.

        850 mb shows dynamics causing a -5 to -10C temp contour over Boston, Worcester, providence, almost to Plymouth.

        Gfs assigning way too much ocean influence in boundary layer from ocean and continuing it too late into the event.

        2. Lots of upward motion. And even so. Once that R/S line collapses, you’ll forget it ever rained even if it did.

  45. I’m off to sleep but just a curious observation. SC was getting snow today. Storm is just into NC now. But it is to be here in the am. We drove home from our Charleston SC visits in two days faster than that. I absolutely know I’m missing something….but what ??

  47. Updated water temp (Boston Buoy) now at 42F!

    It will be interesting if the temp makes it down into the 30’s by mid month.

  51. No beeline straight track on this thing. It will be wobbling all the way up beyond this latitude. That does not leave out the risk of some surprises.

  52. Re: Baker.
    He’s a good guy. He’s doing the best he can. He’s doing his job. It’s not about politics. So…yeah! That’ about it there.

    Back to watching the storm.

    1. Every model run produces something slightly different. Overall within the wobbles, can you see a more easterly or westerly track ? I keep thinking everything is more to the west since yesterday morning.

      1. It’s further west since yesterday morning overall, but it still is the same. The majority of the area is in the envelope of snow, but either way there are going to be banding features.

        Pretty much all the short range guidance available from 00z supports the snowfall forecast posted on the blog above.

        I also think, as is the case with almost all of these, people are expecting all the surprises to be things to be worse, or stronger, or greater than expected. That may be true in a few locations, but not everywhere.

        1. Will thundersnow be a possbility TK? I am surprised no met including yourself has mentioned it. I figure that would be typical of such a powerful storm.

          1. I usually wait until I’m sure, and yes there may be, but it’s a low risk. It would occur in heavier bands. The risk is a little lower because thundersnow tends to occur more frequently in the stage of rapid deepening. That will have maxed out before the storm reaches our latitude.

        2. Thank you. Agree with your surprise analysis. I tend to be analytical due to the nature of my job so I have equal expectations about surprises … they can be greater or lesser. IMHO, most people prefer the greater/stronger because it is more sensational and sensationalism sells well … very well.

          1. Indeed it does. The way I look at things, greater or lesser fascinate me. I just love the way the overall dynamics result in what we see and experience. If I end up in a band that has 5 inches less snow than people 10 miles either side of me, I don’t feel short-changed, I feel lucky to have witnessed from a pinpoint location what the vastness of nature has resulted in.

  53. New post!

    Now it’s time to tweak the details as we go through this evening. Resting for a few hours then at it again.

    Be safe all!

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