Friday Forecast

164 Comments

7:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)
As cleanup and recovery continues in the wake of the powerful winter storm, it will be hampered by a blast of pure arctic air through the weekend, resulting in additional blowing and drifting snow where drier snow fell, solid freeze-up of standing water in flooded areas near the coast that did not drain, and dangerous cold with even more severe wind chills. Once it eases up at the start of next week that will be with a warm-up that will bring a chance of snow/mix/rain to the region – details to be worked out but doesn’t look too significant.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early including a few very light snow showers eastern MA and southern NH, then partly to mostly sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 10-17. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chill 0 to -10.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Blowing snow at times. Lows -5 to +3. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chill -10 to -20.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 3-10. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chill -15 to -25.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -15 to -7. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill -15 to -20.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix/rain late. Lows 8-15. Highs 28-35.
TUESDAY: Chance of snow/mix/rain early. Clearing. Lows 28-35. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)
Dry weather to start the period then a prolonged period of unsettled weather possible January 12-14. Temperatures variable, but closer to normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)
A quieter weather pattern expected with temperatures briefly colder then moderating slightly.

164 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    You always do excellent forecasting here but the tv mets forecasted well this time around as well. Everyone was in sync in their snowfall maps! 🙂

      1. That is a giant pile of snow. Guessing not much room to put it! How much did you guys get from the storm?

  8. It’s 8:30 in the morning and the temperature is still FALLING.

    At 7AM it was 14 and now it is 12.

    1. I thought I heard this morning that TB-12 may not return next season. Is that really possible or just a rumor? Certainly hope the latter.

      1. I don’t know. I don’t see how, unless Jimmie G becomes
        a free agent and they work out something.

        We are not going into next Brian Hoyer.

    2. Bottom line is it isn’t our business. We all know that it will be half truths at best. Brady has been predicted to not return for years now. It is coming up on playoff and superbowl time. ESPN loves to rattle the cages at that time. I don’t like to feed the beast. I’d rather just enjoy the team that has given its fans more than perhaps any other team.

      1. Adding, we all know Jimmy G was not a team player. He was bound to cause friction and friction is not something BB permits….and he should not.

    1. Used to live right down in that area (about 300 ft from the ocean). One storm (maybe in 2003) we had lobsters, etc in the streets..

  13. We’re having a hear wave!!!!
    The temp just climbed all the way up to 13. 😀 😀

    Just puttering around as my office isn’t open until 11 AM today.

    DID I see TK have lows of -15 to -7 Tomorrow night???

    As -7 at Logan????

    Good GRIEF!!! That’s cold!

  15. Boston Buoy down to:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 42.3 °F

    Stellwagen

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 41.2 °F

  16. That ESPN story is probably largely true.

    And it is a good story. Wickersham is a decent writer and reporter. I’m glad there’s some reporting on this. And BB is probably the odd man out here, unfortunately. My hope all along was that Brady retired and Garopolo took over. That not happening, BB should have been able to make the trade and move on from Brady if thats what he thought was best. That was the succession plan, but now that got blown up. Will be interesting to see what will happen.

  17. Agree 100%.

    It really will be interesting to see what happens.

    In the meantime, my biggest fear is that this whole mess gets in the way
    of another Super Bowl Win. Let’s hope not, but it certainly could.

    1. I think if they don’t make and win the SB, it wont be because of this. Its a flawed team is some respects.
      And I’m sure some wont agree, and that’s fine, but Brady is showing his age a bit. Doesn’t mean he he cant win another, but he’s got less time left than a lot think. He’s 40. That’s ancient for an NFL player.

      1. You could be correct about the reasons if they don’t make it.
        But I do agree re: Brady and his age.

        Yes, there are subtle signs. He’s still damn good, but these
        subtle signs could mean he could hit a brick wall soon, perhaps
        as soon as next season.

        I think that they should have forced Brady to retire after this season and proceeded with Jimmie G. And if not, then they
        should have traded Brady after this season.

        AND Kraft would have none of that and thus QB10 was traded and here we are.

        1. I think only common sense tells a person that there will be a cut off for Brady. However, I’ve been listening to folks for at least five years say that he cannot come back; and if he does, he will not be able to get it done.

          As far as being flawed……I don’t believe there is anything in existence that doesn’t have flaws. If we expect a team to win every game or go to the SB every year and are disappointed because they do not deliver, it may not be the team were the flaw lays.

          The Pats dynasty will end because it is impossible for it not to. Until then I will enjoy it, and even then I will be proud to call them my team.

  19. I may have told you all this before, but today marks the anniversary of one of the coldest days in the state. It was -35 degrees here in Taunton on January 5, 1904. Only twice since then has it been -35: in the Coldbrook section of Barre (1943) and Chester (1981).
    Here is my source:
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

    I researched that day in the archives of the Taunton Gazette from that day. There was a massive fire at the Taunton State Hospital that night. There were no lives lost, but 500 patients had to be moved.

    I can’t even imagine -35 degrees!

    1. We are seeing photos of Brant Rock, Humarock and Scituate Harbor. I recall all flooding in the past but I do not recall to this extent, although I am sure there have been instances where it has. Equally disturbing photos from the north shore.

          1. Be careful down there.

            I still cannot believe the amount of flooding.
            Truly amazing.

            I will say, ERIC Fisher was CLEARLY concerned
            about that on the Wednesday night Broadcast.
            He warned everyone about the flooding.

            Eric is the BEST on air Met In New England.
            Yes I know people think Harvey or Pete is.
            They are wrong.

            The way Eric explained the Bombogenesis
            was fantastic. He would make an excellent
            teacher.

            1. Rob Gilman saw it coming as I posted his name here more than once to Tom . He had serous concerns down here and he was spot on .

            2. I think Pete comes close but I am a HUGE fan of Eric’s. Hold onto your hat…..I agree with your comment OS 😉

  23. An “average” high tide depth as measured in Boston Harbor, is 10 ft.

    With yesterday’s astronomical high tide, plus surge, its likely the tide hit 15ft or a bit higher.

    Thus, imagine yourself at the high tide line, but instead of the small waves hitting your toes, the water would have been 5ft deep.

    Then, to that new water level, put 10 to 12 foot waves on top of that.

      1. I had heard that with regard to the north shore also. But they did say they were waiting for confirmation.

  24. bill, never wanted Jimmy G to go, and Kraft did not either, They offered Jimmy G starting QB money but Jimmy left to actually play., this was on NFL network a few weeks ago. This was all on Jimmy G as he wanted to play. Based on this, this report from ESPN i believe is full of crap.

  25. Also, the MBTA was lieing through their teeth when they said there were just moderate delays. There were many cancellations, or delays 2 to 3 hours long. They lied to you, Baker is responsible for this mess.

    1. He explained the need to get snow off the tracks because that was the problem in February 2015. If we want to point fingers at the MBTA, I think we need to go much further back than Baker.

      2. I didn’t vote for Baker the first time but I am most definitely going to next time! He has done pretty well overall IMO.

        1. I didn’t vote for him first time. I voted for Falchuk second time Baker ran, knowing Falchuk would not get in but Baker would but that Falchuk would create a third party in MA.

  26. I’ll never get to go to Baffin Island, but at least I had a taste of it early this morning. Blowing snow and a merciless chill. This said, the sun felt good, especially when out of the wind.

    The squirrels were taking their second snow day in a row. Nuts aplenty in their dens, along with some squirrel scotch, they should be fine for a couple of days.

            1. Both Vicki. Many people, yes, even fans, believe there was some kind of tampering going on with the footballs whether Brady knew it or not. There was way too much smoke there.

      1. They certainly have and they have held their heads high and collectively throughout. For some reason, many (ESPN included as well as the rest of the league) to target success rather than applaud it.

  28. Sunrises are now earlier than they were a couple of days ago.
    Sunset Sunday evening is at 4:30!

  29. The Patriots have been remarkably cohesive for over 20 years. I include their years under Parcells and even Carroll (people forget that they were a good team then, too). In any marriage conflicts will emerge, especially if big personalities are involved. Belichick, Kraft, and Brady are successful, high octane, ego-driven individuals who inevitably don’t see eye-to-eye on everything. At the end of the day, they’re focused on winning and I believe that will continue until Brady retires.

    1. Don’t forget they had good teams 1976-78 and they really should have gone to the SB in 1976. Ben Dreith spoiled that potential. 🙁

  30. Anyone who buys into anything ESPN says about the Pats needs to turn in their loyalty card. Not even worth a debate. On to Minnesota!

    2. Buying into the ESPN story has nothing to do with loyalty. Blind loyalty, yes. If we’re not open minded to other points of view even if they go against what we’ve known and believed, then we are doing ourselves a disservice.

  31. Amazing how we stopped talking weather within a span of 24 hours…and not ONE model posted from JPD today! 😉

    I myself am curious to see 1/13 maps in particular.

  32. The one team that I do NOT want the Patriots to play is the Buffalo Bills. It is difficult to beat a team 3 times during the same season.

  33. The espn piece doesn’t phase me one bit.

    It’s totally believable. Reflecting, isn’t this usual human behavior ? I mean, when one has been somewhere for a long time and it’s been an extremely successful venture, don’t most people feel as though they should get a few more liberties than others ….,

    I don’t see anything in the article other than, I get it and it’s no big deal.

    1. That’s what I like about the article. It shows the human side of the team and the struggles that probably every team go through. What’s so fascinating about it is we rarely if at all get a glimpse of the humanity of the Patriots bc they’re been so unworldly during their reign atop the league. They are so tight lipped and never say anything remotely interesting to the media. Its like learning the teachers pet is really a rotten spoiled child.

  34. Get the idea arctic cold is reloading on the other side of the hemisphere in Siberia and Eastern Asia, consistent with a switch in where the hemispheric trofs and ridges will be. For a while, it will be nice to return to an eastern us ridge.

        1. I rather 20s so the snow stays as packed powder with no Ice possibilities. I am always warm anyways on the slope.

  36. I think this is more to do with our planets health with one of our Gems in Massachusetts in major jeopardy. Those who are on my facebook know how I feel about Oil drilling, This is very bad. One of the spots is off the coast of Cape Cod. This includes all parts of drilling including exploration which have shown to cause earth quakes, oil leaks, major noise concerns for the Marine mammal and would take up major fishing grounds from our local fishermen. It will also be an eye sour to what is the beautiful Cape. It only takes one spill to ruin fishing grounds, and nature. Please go to our Senators and representatives and Baker ( Baker who wants this) and tell them NO. https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/americas/160308/trump-announces-vast-expansion-drilling-off-us-coast/

    1. So we don’t want green energy windmills off our shores and now we don’t want oil drilling. How are we gonna get our energy?

    2. I don’t want to have this devolve into a political discussion on the merits of offshore drilling. But where have you seen it said that Gov. Baker wants offshore oil drilling near MA?

      I’ve never heard him be in favor of that. Wind power yes, oil drilling though??

  38. I think this is the worse of the cold will see this winter during the stretch we have been experiencing. When the thaw happens a lot of people will declare winter over. I think we see a big on in February.

      1. This is pretty bad as much as I like Winter Storms and all.

        In all honesty, I prefer Winter days with lows in the teens/low 20s
        and highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Not hard to take, yet
        cold enough to support snow storms. 😀

  39. For those who said I have not posted any maps today, well here is one for you.
    Shiver in your boots! Temps at 7 AM on Sunday so these should be awfully close
    to the low temperature for the night. This deep snow cover is certainly contributing
    to the cold. YIKES!!!!!!

    https://imgur.com/a/PwVEu

    1. Click on map to enlarge.
      Holy Crap! IF this is accurate, BELOW ZERO temperatures all
      the Way to the DelMarva!!!

      1. Oh my heavens. I think we will be turning off water to the pipe that was frozen. Which may bring me to pipes not freezing in new homes 🙂 They forgot to drip water New Year’s eve….perhaps a bit of partying.

  40. The wind is much stronger here than yesterday. I’m into the house moving off of the foundation type of wind. I might be exaggerating slightly.

  41. Good afternoon all!

    1) I love days like this – roof blizzards and blowing snow under a bright sunny sky.
    2) In 2 weeks most people won’t even remember the ESPN story. It’s bullcrap. If we haven’t learned their aim yet, we never will. Every year when the Pats look strong and the playoffs are about to kick in, they come up with some type of controversy to report. Sorry, it’s not a coincidence. Onto the weather!
    3) I’m debating taking a trip up to Hampton Beach tomorrow to see the flood damage there. I’m not sure if the ocean water is warm enough for Arctic sea smoke anymore but we will see.
    4) Next threat of precipitation is Monday but to me it looks like 2 systems, the northern one coming through here with showers of snow, sleet, rain, depending on your location, late Monday to very early Tuesday. Yes we do warm middle to later next week but let’s keep it in perspective. We still have a low sun angle and in many areas a fairly deep snow cover, a.k.a. natural refrigerant. It will not get as warm as modeled. Mark my words. Also, we could have a 3 or 4 day extended unsettled period that may include any and all types of precipitation around the MLK Jr. Weekend.

    1. 1 and 2 – absolutely agree. You may have noted I made mention of going into playoffs and superbowl is the time that the stories / lies / nonsense hits the fan.

      As far as 1….I figured how to crack my window in whatever room I am in so that the wind literally whistles / howls. I love it. Although my daughter may have asked me why in heavens name I’d want a window even slightly open 🙂

    2. Thanks TK.

      I walked across the street to get some lunch around 2PM and I did
      notice exactly what you were saying. I was gong to post something
      about it being a ground blizzard. 😀

      TK, do you think it will be as cold as modeled by the Euro (or my service
      interpretation of the Euro)????

      thanks

        1. I had a large shear-driven snow devil in my front yard last night that actually left swirl marks in the snow. I’m going to post a pic on FB soon and I’ll copy one over to here.

          1. cool – I’m watching down the street as I cannot see my yard. There was just one that was huge. Truly amazing.

      2. That temp algorithm generally sucks, however it has done much better in cases of fresh snowcover, so it’s certainly possible.

        1. Thank you. Appreciate your response.

          Been a hectic few days. The emergency type stuff that
          was going on at work was something else being
          that our office provides services to the Elderly so you can imagine. There was one building that had a main water pipe break and all residents had to be re-located. We had about 75 clients residing in that building.

          All sorts of fun stuff. 😀

    1. -5 and -7 for boston. preeeeeettttttttyyyyyyy damn chilly I would say.

      What will we have for harbor ice around the area after Sunday AM????

      It may be 42 at the buoy, but I assure you near the shore the water is cold
      enough to freeze as witness the ice chunks and flows before and during
      the storm.

      1. Boston buoy down to:

        Water Temperature (WTMP): 41.9 °F

        Stellwagen

        Water Temperature (WTMP): 41.0 °F

        To give an example of harbors or other waters close to shore.

        Station NTKM3 – 8449130 – Nantucket Island, MA

        Water Temperature (WTMP): 30.4 °F

        Station 44020 (LLNR 13665) – NANTUCKET SOUND

        Water Temperature (WTMP): 33.1 °F

        Station BZBM3 – 8447930 – Woods Hole, MA

        Water Temperature (WTMP): 30.4 °F

  43. JP Dave… I hear you. I am closely involved with the elderly when I am at Reading. Between that and doing weather essentially 24/7, I’m pretty spent myself.

    I know there are folks that have accused you of having “nothing to do” because you chat weather and post models on the blog, but what you do for work is ESSENTIAL and EXHAUSTING. People don’t realize this.

    Take some time and recharge.

    1. Nicely stated; and whoever those folks are, please introduce them to me. I may have a word or two to share.

    2. You are very kind sir. Thank you.

      What some do not realize is that often times I am running queries, reports, imports and/or exports and it takes time, so I often have moments here
      and there where I can look at the blog and post.

      Also, there are many times I am doing work related tasks at home, so I do not
      feel guilty taking time for the blog while at work.

      That being said, gearing up for one of the coldest weekends in a long time.

      This should rival the Christmas Day cold many years ago. Late 70s to early to mid-80s. Can’t remember the exact date. All I can remember was being
      outside looking for my wife’s cousins keys in her mother’s building parking lot.
      I froze my asss off. It was something like -5 to -7 in the middle of the afternoon with a biting wind to boot.

    3. I actually don’t know what you do – JpDave! Please share if you’re comfortable. I do know that I am very glad you take the time to share your models and post your thoughts – I swear between your infectious enthusiasm and Vicki’s warmth I actually look forward to storms now bc I know this blog will be “lit up!”

  44. MJO shall be fairly weak and hanging around phases 2 & 3 over the coming 10 to 20 days. This is good news if you are waiting for an ease up to the cold and not great news if you like big snow. However, don’t read that as we will be warm and snowless either. The pattern transition is going to take until around January 20 to complete, and maybe even a little longer. Not to mention, there are other factors involved in addition to MJO that need to line up for things to really shift.

  45. TK what are your weather predictions for all 2018? I always have enjoyed reading how you think the year in weather will play out.

    1. Oh yes! I meant to do those. I’ll have my round ready by tomorrow… Made a note for myself.

  46. Already down to 10 Degrees in Boston (9.8 at home).

    Pretty good launching point for a low number tonight.

  48. All right I hate to ask…but when will this damn wind end? It keeps covering everything I shovel over and over again. So I am giving up on these efforts until it stops. I heard tonight but TK’s blog post mentions similar winds tomorrow.

    1. It will remain windy into tomorrow but the gusts will be less frequent and then overall it will diminish during the afternoon, but not to calm.

  49. I think it’s more windy here right now than it was yesterday . It’s howling out there .

    1. Yes that’s why I asked. I am guessing this is toward the end of it (like it gets worse before it gets better).

  50. I find it interesting that there is almost always a long duration precip event on MLK Jr weekend. I can’t recall a quiet one weatherwise. It must be a mid-January thing for the northeast in general..a transition period perhaps?

      1. Nope I’ve been saying it as long as I’ve been here there is always a watcher MLK weekend always at least a watch . Harvey even mentioned that shot ( stressing early ) Saturday game is a watcher .

  51. Any updates on the Monday potential? My phone app (which is a joke) changes by the hour…show snow, then no snow, then snow, etc.

    2. At this point I’m favoring snow over anything else with generally light accumulation.

  52. The wind can stop anytime. It keeps blowing my driveway and walks shut as fast as I can shovel. And it’s brutal cold.

  53. Looking at the GFS, and CMC, and Euro for the Monday night system, all show light snow or mix with little accumulation (<1"). GFS is advertising perhaps 1-3" across CT and RI but I'll believe that when I see it.

    The late week system(s) looks like they will have a lot of moisture associated with them and occur over an extended period of time with multiple waves of low pressure moving up towards us. Timing and outcome differs depending on what model you look at:

    18z GFS has a cutter with rain showers Thursday followed by a more potent system riding up the coast over the weekend with a front end thump of snow changing to mix and then rain.

    12z CMC has a initial cutter with rain showers tracking west of us and then the cold air settles in with a boundary setting up south of us and multiple waves of low pressure riding up along it and delivering an extended period of snow.

    12z Euro has successive cutters passing to our west and deluges all of New England with 2+ days of heavy rain.

    GFS and CMC solutions deliver a moderate to significant snow event and the Euro probably delivers flooding.

    So a complicated setup late next week into MLK weekend with many possibilities on the table to say the least.

    1. Thanks, Mark.

      Complicated indeed, and more in line with what SNE being caught in the battle zone between cold and warmth. I think predictions will be quite difficult moving forward, and I can envision rain to snow or snow to rain scenarios.

        1. It is indeed he got lucky .Although Scituate got hit good I believe Marshfield took the biggest hit .

          1. I think the majority of the MA coast took it hard. Not sure one area is worse than another. South and north shores and in between we’re just awful

    2. Yes indeed. Loved Mill Wharf and the water is deep there. Fall in and you
      ain’t standing up!! At least he is OK, isn’t he?

  55. -31F on top of Mt. Washington; wind chill is -78F. Wind chill is expected to dip to -90F by early morning. That’s more Pluto- than Earth-like.

    What never ceases to amaze me is the variation we experience in SNE. Remember those warm days in early October and the hot ones in September when it sounded like the tropics outside as cicadas did their thing? That was only a few months ago. In the spate of 90 days or so we can go from the tropics to the tundra. Nature and wildlife that surround us look totally different. In the park the chestnut tree that was dropping chestnuts on the ground and had large dark green leaves is now devoid of any foliage. The migrant birds are gone. Chatter among permanent bird inhabitants is minimal. Rivers, lakes, ponds, and some salt water harbors are frozen. Everything is dormant, even people it would seem. Nothing appears to be the same as it was 3 months ago, and yet it is the same. It’s the same river, the same tree, the same birds, and the same people.

    1. Yup, the beauty of living here. Not sure I would want to live anywhere else.
      The only other place would be some place in/near the Rockies, like Flagstaff, AZ, Durango, Co, Salt Lake area of Utah etc. Would NOT like Northern Rockies.
      Nothing in Idaho, Montana or Wyoming.

  60. Even though my thermometer is reading 6 Degrees (it is falling off ever so slowly),
    the Dew point is dropping and is now down to -6. Therefore, I feel the temp may
    drop off later. We shall see. Earlier today I was predicting -2 to +2 for my low.
    We shall see.

  61. The JMA wants to deliver a snow storm on the 12th. I don’t think the models have a clue.

    I am wondering if this is the Pattern Change Big Snow TK was talking about a ways
    back??? Will monitor and see.

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