Saturday Forecast

191 Comments

3:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
“Arctic Weekend” (might as well make it sound like a movie) is underway. Not much else to say that hasn’t already been said about this post-storm cold outbreak, so do the best you can to hopefully avoid frozen pipes, dead batteries, and frostbite. Moderation is in sight, and will be marked by a bout of unsettled weather later Monday, though it does not look like a big deal as a fast-moving northern system will stay far separated from a more moisturized southern one which stays across the Deep South while the northern one visits this area. Behind this what would be the “colder” air mass will not really feel cold at all in comparison to what we will have endured, and the Tuesday-Wednesday time period will feel rather pleasant, even with a gusty breeze for Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 6-13. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chill -10 to -20, briefly colder at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -12 to -3, least cold immediate coastlines. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill -15 to -30.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 11-18. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix/rain late. Lows 8-15. Highs 28-35.
TUESDAY: Chance of snow/mix/rain early. Clearing. Temperatures steady 28-35 then falling slightly.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 12-22. coldest interior valleys. Highs 34-42.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
Pattern transition will be ongoing and this may be marked by a more unsettled pattern, first a warm front / cold front combo bringing clouds and light precipitation during the January 11-12 period, then a couple periods of more meaningful precipitation January 13-15. This is a general forecast with no attempt at any details, which will be determined in the days to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
A quieter weather pattern expected with temperatures briefly colder then moderating slightly.

191 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Here’s my 5am rant…people with wind chimes should be aware that other people don’t want to listen to them clang around 24/7 when it’s this windy. Be respectful and take them down until the wind normalizes. Believe it or not people do want to sleep.

    That out of the way thanks for the update!

    1. You’re welcome. That is the first time I’ve ever heard of someone being kept awake by wind chimes. 🙂

      When I hear them, I think of them as a natural music, or a message, especially the ones that hang in memory of my father. 🙂

    1. A great day to defrost a giant freezer – which is exactly one of the things I’ll be doing downstairs in mom’s basement. 🙂 Food in milk crates under the back stairway.

      1. That’s a good idea! I already had to go out and rescue my recycle bin. Trash day today and it blew over and the contents were making their way through the street!

    2. It’s a good point to make, but historical analogs will only get you so far. We’ll have additional cold shots, and if we return to a colder pattern for a length of time (which is probably less than 50% likely), the degree will probably be far less than what we are currently going through by nearly out of.

  6. Philip if this pans out those will declare winter over when the thaw happens will be wrong. This maybe a winter get the cold to start get a break for a period in January only to have winter return in February.

  7. Thank TK

    WeatherWiz. My best advice is to get a noise maker. It’ll cover the sound of the chimes. I don’t have my chimes up because I don’t have a protected space and I don’t want to bother neighbors. But I have chimes for my brother and my dad that I can no longer hear and think of them.

  8. Am watching my son and SIL shoveling what blew in. All I can think of is the proverbial shoveling you know what against the tide. Crazy windy still.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Just an observation about over night last night. Not sure what it means, but
    the forecast low for Boston was -2 and it ONLY made it down to +5. That
    is a 7 degree departure from the forecast. WHY?

    Thinking it over, the best explanation I can come up with is that the wind
    was W and Not NW, therefore the cold was “modified” just a little bit, if you
    want to call 5 Degrees modified.

    Now what does this mean for tonight? Will tonight also be less cold than last night?
    I do believe the winds are forecast to be more NW tonight, so perhaps tonight
    will deliver as advertised.

    Believe me I am NOT complaining, just making an observation.

    Any thoughts?

    Thanks

  12. Water Temps

    Boston Buoy

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 41.4 °F

    Stellwagen

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 40.5 °F

  13. JP Dave… I think last night’s miss on the low temperature forecast was not due to the wind direction, but just the fact that the wind was so strong. It’s very difficult to get cooling in any air mass with wind like that, because you’re continuing to mix out the air. Air parcels are still warming adiabatically as they come down. Radiational cooling is disrupted. That explains why the temperature barely went down at all in some places, including here in Wrentham. My rule of thumb, if you’re getting sustained winds above about 15mph, always hedge higher on a low temp forecast. Same thing may happen tonight, though the wind should be a little lighter and thus should push most places below zero. But I was very skeptical that last night would get super cold, and likewise am skeptical we set many records tonight unless the wind really slackens off.

    1. Thank you for that and Now that I have digested what you stated, that makes
      PERFECT sense and I “should” have realized that. I knew something was up
      when the rate of descent slowed to a crawl.

      btw, Eric forecast a high of 7 today for Boston. Looks like 11-13 will be more
      like it. We shall see.

      I love this blog.

    3. Only thing I can add to this is the pure arctic air was behind another boundary that had not passed by yet. Some of the air mixed into the storm’s vast circulation was actually remnants of warmer air that had its origins far south of here.

      2. Ahhh Intriguing. Then That boundary will have passed for tonight
        and we will really get cold tonight???

        Many thanks for the enlightening words.

  14. Place your bets here! Do we see a 50+ degree Friday anywhere in Massachusetts? Bets here please. Place ya bets.

  18. Thank you, TK!

    I have learned my lesson time and time again not to trust models many days away.
    However, the GFS has been indicating freezing rain/ice for next Saturday night in a couple of runs.

    That could be when the Patriots play their divisional playoff game. The NFL/network TV likes to put New England playoff games in primetime.

    Any thoughts?

    1. We have anniversary dinner that evening. Seems we are having dinner often
      during a Pat’s playoff game. Oh well. Figures. Watch it be an all
      out snow storm that evening. Just my luck.

  20. -36F with 100mph wind gusts and a wind chill of -94F on Mount Washington this morning. Only 2 degrees off it’s record low of -38F for the date and the coldest place on the planet this morning.

  21. Now that we’re out of “storm mode”, I figured it was a good time for me to update my long range thoughts. For what was expected to be a difficult seasonal forecast, I think the “front end loaded” winter theme has been on point so far. The magnitude and duration of the cold has been more than I would’ve bargained for, but the overall pattern has fit what was expected. We’ve checked off the snowfall box as well after Thursday. So I’m happy with how it’s worked out so far from a seasonal and sub-seasonal forecast perspective.

    Going forward… Yes, we are approaching a major upper air pattern change. Ridging is about to return to the East, as early as Monday. However, while the upper level pattern will support warmth, I think the surface will be slower to respond. We saw this at times in December, and it may be magnified now given our snow cover. The GFS system for next weekend has my attention. I could see that being a fairly significant winter weather event, though it’s very low confidence at this point.

    I liken what’s going on now to a mirror image of what happened a couple months ago. Recall, after a scorching warm October, how we gradually “stair-stepped” our way into a cold pattern by December. Here, I think we’ll do the same thing, but transitioning from a colder to a warmer pattern. We’ll taste the warmer weather later this week, but may get some fresh cold by MLK weekend, which again I’m concerned that may coincide with some storminess. After that I think is when we get the true January thaw. And I base that off of the fact that sustained troughing finally looks to develop in the West, which should lead to more robust ridging and warmth in the East. The PNA, which has been so consistently positive, should finally start to go negative. MJO also a factor, which TK has mentioned. So I expect a warm last 10-12 days of January with below normal snow.

    February? Winter may try to make a comeback. Back in the fall my early inclination was for sustained warmth from late January and beyond. Now, I’m not so sure. I think we’ll be mostly above average in temperatures for the rest of winter, but maybe not by a whole lot, with some cold still mixed in.

    3. Judah Cohen is hinting at the possibilities of additional disruptions of the PV that would send colder air back down here later January into February…

      As we get later into winter I do believe that persistence grows in importance and even just one more stratospheric PV disruption may be sufficient to carry cold temperatures into the month of February regardless of the behavior or strength of the stratospheric PV. And there are already signs of yet another energy pulse mid-month that often disrupts the stratospheric PV.

      As of yet I see no robust signs of a highly disrupted stratospheric PV but rather the PV perturbations are relatively minor. Still the impacts on the troposphere can be significant especially if they are repetitive. This was the situation in winter 2013/14. Still given the easterly QBO I still consider a major disruption possible either later in January or February.

    1. When’s your last day of school now, Tom?
      I am going to have to reintroduce myself to my students.
      I think I have forgotten some of the students’ names!
      I was only in one day last week with a medical day on Wednesday and two snow days at the end of the week.

      We have the semester system at Middleborough High. My last day with this group is January 24! We have the MLK weekend next weekend, too!

      I am going to have to rewrite my long-term plans to get the essential points in before the finals!

      1. It always boggles my mind when people comment that teachers work only part of the year. I’m sure it never occurs to anyone that even the snow days off create more work. And I can guarantee that your students know who you are and appreciate what a great teacher you are……Tom too!!!

        2. I just wish they had more freedom to teach what they think is more important. Some teachers of mine have said in high school that, we should be learning certain stuff but we are not because the schools teach to the MCAS and other standardize tests instead of the MCAS and other Standardize tests testing what the students have learned.

          1. You’re right, Matt. I teach Spanish. I am not saying it’s any less important than STEM or ELA, but I do feel there is “less pressure” on me than my friends who teach Math, English and Science.
            I do have more creativity in what I do.

            1. My Daughter teaches Spanish as well and like you say, she has some latitude to be
              quite creative. 😀

    2. June 13th.

      I know, tons of time off recently, I think I had forgotten a few names after the December break.

  23. Predictions for 2018
    Rest of winter will average out around normal in terms of both Precipitation and Temperature.
    Like Wx mentioned above. Second half of January looks to be above normal temperatures
    I believe could see either side of Precipitation of above or below normal.
    Febuary, I believe will be up and down with wide swings in temperatures marked by storminess.
    March, I am not sure I think It could start out cold and then warm up quickly
    April, I think will start out warm then cool off.
    May through August, Normal to above normal temperatures around normal precipitation. Thunderstorms???
    Fall above normal temperatures and dry.
    December Warm.
    This is just my thoughts once passed March. I do not think we go right into Spring like some are saying.

  24. Well, the 12Z GFS is Warmer for the 12th/13th with most of the action on the 12th, ending early on the 13th. IT would be good to be over early on the 13th and this
    time around, I would be very happy if it were rain or predominately rain. Additional
    snows can come later. 😀

        3. I can not afford Stowe since freakin Vail bought it. The day passes have gone way up. Only thing that went down was the season pass.

  25. Here were my predictions for 2018 posted the other day. I look forward to reading TK and others.
    Here are my bold weather predictions for 2018. I look forward to reading all of yours and also what TK has to say about the weather for the year ahead.
    Widespread double digit snowfall will happen in February
    First few weeks of March will be mild and people will think were done with snow but right around the spring equinox will have a snowstorm
    April up and down and temps
    Sustained warmth begins middle of May
    Warmer than normal summer. All recording stations in SNE will have between 5 and 7 more 90 degree days than normal. Peak of the heat mid July through early August Normal amount of thunderstorm days which include 1-2 weak tornadoes.
    Slightly above normal hurricane season. 1-2 land falling hurricanes in U.S.
    Another warm fall
    First widespread snowfall will come the week before Christmas which will give us a White Christmas

  26. 12z GFS has highs in the low 60’s next Friday into early Saturday with all rain from both late week systems. Ground will be pretty much bare by this time next week if that verifies.

  27. If the low on 12z GFS moves a little further east different ball game next weekend. Plenty of time for a shift.

  28. I was skeptical of Pete Bouchard’s depiction of the dramatic weather pattern shift last night, but now I’m less so. Talk about the tale of two weekends: Arctic this weekend and balmy and spring-like rains next (a 60 degree differential). Of course, this is all subject to change. Will the high pressure area to our south stay parked off the southeast coast of the U.S.? If so, the cold should stay away for a while.

    1. There watching a storm next Saturday & I don’t think precipitation type is yet determined for next weekend .

      1. Probably not determined. Last night’s GFS run was much colder than this morning’s run.

        We shall see. It will do whatever it wants to do.

  29. 2018 predictions

    La Niña southeast ridge kicks in severe weather season starting in February. Unfortunately, a very active severe weather season with multiple tornadic outbreaks.
    Somewhere in eastern Mass will see a short tracked F0 to F1 tornado in June or July.

    27 (90F) days at Logan this summer.

    Even though La Niña will be transitioning to neutral enso, atmosphere will still feature low shear in the tropics, with another above average tropical season.

    Last snow March 19th.

    First 90F day at Logan : April 26th.

    First snow at end of year : Dec 8th.

  30. Ok so this comment will cover alot. Here we go…

    Who sees 50 next Friday? Nobody, but I bet Attleboro gets to 65. 😛

    The rest of my thoughts on the next 15 days are posted above so no need to repeat them.

    So this leads me to the next segment: TK’s sorta scientific, sorta guessing, sorta for fun predictions for the remainder of 2018:
    * The pattern heading into later winter will be “easier” than what we’ve had. But I am not comfortable with forecasting consistently milder than normal temperatures for the balance of it. There are some signs (and we have seen this elsewhere already) that the PV will be unstable again and lobes of it may visit this area at times during February. That said, I do expect more Southeast ridge so the ability for the PV to fully dive in and as far south as it had will be diminished. We will also be seeing this during a time when sun angle and length of daylight is increasing, and this always has some psychological lessening of impact. That said, I do fully believe the balance of winter remaining will be significantly less harsh than what came before.
    * Early spring. I think March re-warms, and April is mild to start, but we may slip into a cool stretch for a while sometime in April and/or May.
    * First 70-degree day at Boston will come between the vernal equinox and March 31.
    * There will be 1 extremely late season snowfall with at least flakes in the air, and possibly measurable, for parts of the region, between mid April and mid May.
    * The first 80-degree day at Boston will come in late May, after which there will be many.
    * The first 90-degree day at Boston will come in June just before…
    * Brief cool spell in June otherwise warm to hot dry June and July which will bring a return to drought after a drier than normal spring.
    * A web cam will catch a remarkable shot of the Hancock and Prudential towers being struck simultaneously by ground extensions of a positive lightning discharge from a nearby summer thunderstorm.
    * Summer 2018 will see the return of squall line thunderstorms that make all the way to and off the eastern coast of MA.
    * Boston will experience at least 22 days of 90+ temperatures and hit 100 twice.
    * August starts the way June and July were, drought and heat, and then come the tropical rains and a series of 4 tropical cyclones that wipe out the drought, and a few trees in the process. None of them will be hurricane strength when they arrive. We’ll have to wait until 2019 to break the land-falling hurricane drought.
    * September starts out warm, humid, and summery with the last of the series of TC’s mixed in there, then goes cool and dry for a stretch.
    * October will have 1 dry/warm week, 1 dry/cool week, 1 wet/warm week, and 1 wet/cool week, but I have no idea what order this will take place in.
    * First measurable snow comes in October, making the time between the 2 snow seasons the shortest on record.
    * November starts with record cold and one of the earliest widespread freezes of that magnitude, and is followed by one of the warmest stretches of Indian Summer weather we have seen (70s at least 2 times). The rest of the month is variable/seasonable with several episodes of early-season snow showers.
    * December 2018 will resemble December 2017 in terms of cold and snow, just starting earlier and lasting the entire month.

    I guess that’s about it. 🙂

      1. It’s happened before, and will again. But who’s to say next winter won’t be front, middle, AND back loaded? 😉

    2. Thanks TK.

      Is there any concern that the weather might be cooler than predicted because of volcanic activity last fall?

      1. If that has an impact at all it will be barely noticeable. The eruptions were not large enough to cause change the scope of something like Pinatubo in 1994.

    1. Both as modeled on the Euro and GFS right now. Both models deliver 2-3” of rain and temps in the 40’s and 50’s Friday into Saturday. 12z Euro actually keeps the rain going through Sunday as well.

  32. Watching For a low impact mix / snow event for Tuesday early AM & than a potential moderate snow storm for Saturday / Sunday 1/13- 1/14.
    No 50”s Friday Boston maybe 42 for a high with arriving cold front at night setting the stage for the weekend event . The rest of January we experience a January thaw that will last the rest of the month .
    February will feature up & down temperature swings with a possible big snow event sometime around Presidents’ Day and right before that will feature the coldest Valentine’s Day ever recorded than after the one big storm mentioned above the month ends with maybe an Alberta clipper with decent amounts from the south shore down to the cape finish off the snow season for the winter .
    March : will feature again up and down temperature with no accumulation of snow for this month.
    April : will be Wamer then usual with Easter Sunday being very warm followed by the first 80 degree day for marathon Monday forcing many drop outs and an American from mass miss Flanagan winning the woman’s division. The remainder of the month is above normal for temperature.
    May : up & down temperature swings getting warmer towards Memorial Day with beach like weather .
    June : will start warm & wet follows by up & down temperature until the end of the month when The temps start rising for the long haul .
    July will be an extremely hot & humid dry month with 12 90 degree days with the first heatwave over the 4th of July with July going down on record as the hottest ever recorded.
    August : continue with the hot & very dry conditions with 15 9o degree days and August goes down as well the warmest of the month
    Sept / October warm as usual with finely opportunity for rain with a big tropical system bigger than the one last Halloween to hit the region sometime in October .
    November will be colder than normal with an ice storm right around thanksgiving with big snow North & west of Boston . December cold and dry with no snow at all for this month .

    1. I would love to pull off my first legit beach day before June 1. 🙂

      And I definitely can see why you’d like your December prediction to come true. 😉

        1. The only real forecast part of mine is through February, slightly for spring and summer, and nothing beyond that.

    1. Even if you (or someone else) has, who doesn’t love to look back at history? We’ll be doing that extensively for a little snowstorm we love to talk about very soon, for its 40th anniversary. 🙂

  34. I’m going to go out on a limb and say at least parts of the region are in the 30s next Saturday.

  36. Don’t even bother with models for the 12-13th system. 2nd system will dig more and i would watch for a wave to develop south of us and then we shall see where it goes. I wouldn’t rule out a moderate snowstorm.

    1. Love it!
      Have yourself a merry “Little Christmas”! And watch for my final song post on FB tonight.

  38. This ended up turning into a game. I’m all for any chance at KC getting knocked out. Wicked bad matchup for pats.

    1. At least KC is gone.
      Pats should be able to beat the Bills or Titans easier than KC. I did not want to see KC. They’re not that good, it they play the pats tough.

  40. I feel terribly for Andy Reid because he lost his son (suicide). But, he is the worst post-season coach I have ever seen. It’s sad to see him operate. Kansas City fans deserve a better fate. Why he’s still in the NFL as a head coach remains a mystery. There must be better coaches than Reid. He has had teams loaded with talent and he often barely makes the playoffs (if that) and does nothing in the playoffs.

      1. Agreed. I just don’t understand NFL owners. They are business people, so their objective should be to win as much as they can. Yet, many hire or retain (eg, Marvin Lewis) really awful coaches. This is why they lose to the Patriots more often than not. I don’t think it’s necessarily a talent issue. I think the Patriots are better coached and managed than any team in football. This includes instituting systems in which undervalued (by other NFL teams) players like Welker, Edelman, Ninkovich, Bruschi, and of course Brady thrive.

      2. He is awful. How do you lose that many. KC started pooping themselves after that one TD by titans. And it was early still. I fear they would have given the pats hell though. Glad their out.

      1. Yea, that’s probably true.. I can’t understand the Bengals. Lewis, I think, it’s the longest tenured coach in the NFL right behind BB. And he’s coming back next year. Bengalhs e had some good players, but the coach is horrid.

  41. Gonna say, loosing their TE caused the chiefs to loose that game. Defense also let up in the second half.
    I am not sure who I would rather see face the patriots next week. I feel like the pats can take either one of the two teams, but I think the Jags have the best chance in taking on the steelers which will avoid the pats needing to face them which I am not entirely sure they can do this time.

  42. Bruins score on their first 4 shots on goal.
    Bruins lead 5-1 after 1st period with Bergeron having 2 goals.
    Bruins score early in the 2nd to make it 6-1 and Bergeron has his hat trick.
    This team is so hot they are going to alter the weather pattern…

    1. Bumped into Chara the other day at Whole Foods. Chatted with him about the Bruins season. He’s a very nice man. Accessible, friendly, down-to-earth, loves the U.S. and especially New England.

  43. My predictions for 2018 (just major events for each month):

    – January’s already experienced its major events, rest of the month will be boring weather-wise
    – February 6th (1978 blizzard anniversary) will feature a major winter storm (10.5 inches at Logan; more in the interior)
    – March 9th will be the warmest on record as temperatures soar to 81F
    – April 27th will be the coldest on record as temperatures plummet to 31F at night.
    – May 10th will feature a major cold rain storm as a late winter storm packs quite a punch (2 plus inches of rain throughout SNE; over 2 feet of snow in the Presidentials)
    – June 1st will be our first 90F, one of 5 in the month of June
    – July 7th through the 12th will be the longest heatwave of the summer
    – August 30th will feature widespread frost in NNE, with temps dipping into the upper 30s in SNE
    – On September 17th Boston will experience a deluge of rain which will flood several T stations (similar to what happened in October of 1996)
    – October will be the driest on record with less than an inch of rain recorded in Boston
    – Thanksgiving week will feature an ice (mostly sleet) storm in SNE
    – December 2nd will break the record for coldest night as temperatures dip to 4F in Boston; while December 6th will break the record for warmest daytime temperature of 68F

  46. My 2018 weather prediction. Ok here goes. It will be hot, cold snowy, rainy, cloudy, sunny, windy. I back this prediction up 100%

  49. Ace. Just saw your post about leaving shoes our. Made me smile. La befana ….we never celebrated and I now wonder why since Mac had fond memories.

  55. SSK … Glad you guys got to see a fun game. Not a close competitive one but plenty of B’s goals for sure! I’ll be at the game on January 17 against Montreal, the middle of playing them 3 times in 8 days.

  58. http://i.imgur.com/iMq0Rtv.jpg

    South Amherst MA about a mile from my house. Coldest temp I have seen here.

    Winds went calm. Low sitting snow covered valley at about 150 feet and in less than 2 miles the hills of the Holyoke Range at 900 feet. Perfect combination for peak cold at dawn.

    1. For those of you can’t open the the link it reads -27.

      My house -24
      Chicopee MA at Westover AFB -21.

      This is the kind of weather. Perfect radiational cooling conditions! For me this is like most of you with a snowstorm. Only thing better – a September day where the morning low is about 32 and afternoon highs in 70s. Diurnal temp swings. That is fascinating weather to me!!

      3. Wow that will be something to remember and will be interesting to see your recovery today, Temp is climbing now here and I am up to 6.

  62. I have cousins visiting Sydney Australia. There’s a city, Penrith, just west of Sydney. Had its highest temp yesterday in last 70 years. ………. 117F.

  63. I’ll be 15 to 20 degrees lower on next Saturday’s forecast than the TV guys.

    Blog update will be after 11AM…

  64. Good morning and what a Chilly one it is.
    My AcuRite equipment registered a low of -4.4 here in JP.
    Now up to a big fat goose egg. Dripped faucets for the first time in a long long time.
    All appears to be well.

  65. -6 for a low in Wrentham… pretty cold! Certainly could’ve been colder though. As expected, it came down to the wind. Where the wind stayed up, single digits below zero were common. In the few places it went close to calm, the bottom really fell out. Impressive numbers from JMA out to the west.

    May not feel like it, but today we begin our transition into a warmer pattern! Not “warm” right away per se, but much warmer than the past 2 weeks.

    2. Thanks JPD. I assume once we get our Jaunary thaw, they will get back to their normal bitter cold pattern. AFAIC they can have it right now!

  67. Daughter and family rode down to Humarock yesterday and were surprised there was not more visible damage. The area where we stay now has the ocean up and over the road and into the river on the other side each winter. The sand piled in front of the house is what washes up and over band apparently is no different from other years

    However, the road is a couple of miles long and with this much sand all along it, that is a lot of beach being moved

    The house is set up about 9-10 feet

    https://i.imgur.com/iVsnpko.jpg

    2. It was interesting to see where some river ice pieces had been left behind by the surge, pretty high up.

      1. Daughter said the same. I’m amazed they cleaned up as quickly. After the perfect storm, we headed to Humarock and it seemed the damage was much greater. BUT I think many houses were raised after that. The house on the lot at that time in the picture was washed into the river in 91.

        1. I think it also shows this surge was more about the height of the surge and less about the waves. The storm wouldn’t have had a chance to build massive tall waves. But the height of the water level was amazing.

        2. When we drove over the bridge in humarock yesterday, I kept thinking of the picture you posted on Facebook.

  69. Interested in seeing in coming model runs if bridging high pressure to our north may be stronger than currently modeled next weekend.

    SE ridge warmth aloft could be undercut by low level cold dense air at the surface. This shallow cold air could end up a lot further south into northeastern parts of southern New England than currently being projected. Maybe an icing event for NH, ME and northeastern parts of MA ?

  70. If those temps are going to be considerably colder next Satutday then there is frozen precip potential at the game…assuming moisture will be falling from the sky at kickoff.

  72. Throughout our sustained chill I noticed that Moscow was relatively mild. In fact, historically mild by some accounts. That is about to change. I suspect Moscow will revert to its normal pattern, while we do some thawing and reverting back to a normal pattern.

  73. Tweet from meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    As far as the warm up, each day we get closer to a “warm” day, the actual high temperatures become less impressive. Keep an eye out for Friday through Saturday as the actual highs may end up much colder and the precipitation snow rather than rain

  74. There is no reason why someone should need to spend 32 minutes in a drive through for 2 coffees. 😛 And I’m a PATIENT PERSON. 😛

    Updating the blog now. 😀

  75. Made it down to -10.3F here this morning and still sitting at -1F as of now. Refreshing!

    12z GFS still portraying an all rain scenario for next Saturday with the storm track right over us. For temps it’s got 40’s Thursday, 50’s Friday, and on Saturday, 30’s in NE MA trending to 50’s across CT, RI, and the Cape. Those 50’s drop to 30’s in the PM after the storm. Wouldn’t take much of a tick east for a colder solution on the GFS. The Euro however will need to make more substantial adjustments to trend towards a colder solution

  77. Tk. Are you thinking that the cold front is going to come in quicker than the models are saying or do you think the models are showing it just way to warm.

  78. many of the ensembles for next weekend are cooler including the euro ensembles. German model further east, American model further east, Canadian further east, euro is the furthest west but its ensembles are the most disorganized of the group and is still further east than the operational. The control of the EURO also further east.

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