Sunday Forecast

66 Comments

11:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)
A pleasantly warm southwesterly air flow will boost temperatures 20 degrees warmer this afternoon than they were this morning in most locations! Sounds like spring right? Wrong! Yes, the wind will be southwest and that 20-degree recovery will get us to the middle to upper teens in most areas. That shows you how low we were to start with, from around 0 to as low as -15 or colder in some spots. Not as cold as the one-day frigid blast of Valentine’s Day 2016, but pretty brutal still by New England standards especially after the last 2 days of arctic cold and strong winds following the powerful storm. So we’ve been through a bit of a harsh stretch here and there is good news if you need a break. It’s arriving. Now don’t expect a warm sunny pattern with melting snow and early blooming flowers. You’d be expecting far too much. But it will be more pleasant feeling outside in the days ahead. That said, it is January, and we will have a January pattern, starting with our dry and still very cold day today. A weak system approaches Monday and is set to bring only light snow/rain to the region Monday evening before moving on its way and leaving us with a dry, breezy, chilly Tuesday. High pressure settles overhead by early Wednesday which will end up with a cold morning but a pleasant afternoon. A warm front will push through the region by early Thursday, propelled by a ridge of high pressure and a west wind surface and aloft, but the “warm” air behind these things is always modified by a snow cover, which we certainly have throughout the region, so don’t find yourself with unreasonable expectations. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 12-18. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 12-18 evening and rising slightly overnight. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 28-36. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with a period of snow, accumulating under 1/2 inch, except rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Temperatures may rise slightly to 31-39 evening then lows 22-28 overnight. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 32-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Lows 10-20, coldest interior valleys. Highs 33-43.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-33. Highs 36-46.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)
Friday January 12 looks like the mildest day of the week with widespread 40s but probably periods of rain with the region just on the southern side of a front that slips southward and makes Saturday January 13 colder (30s north to lower 40s south) with rain/ice possible with another low pressure wave. Trending colder with potential mix/snow Sunday January 14 and a chance of snow Monday January 15 (MLK Jr. Day). Too early for much detail on the extended unsettled stretch. Clearing possible by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)
Looking at another shot of cold air for the first part of this period then moderation but a quieter overall weather pattern.

66 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Hopefully, it will boost temps enough in the garage to unfreeze the water Poland springs delivered yesterday.

    And lest I ever be accused of not admitting to wearing egg on my face. I was running the hot water in the downstairs bath but it was getting colder by the second. I called my SIL to see why the hot water faucet would work at all if it were frozen. He had me run the other side. It was hot. I’ll let you all figure out what I did while I go defrost my brain 🙂 😉

    1. You saw the “C” for cold and saw an “H”???? And proceeded accordingly.
      Sort of like “No, you’re other right”

  3. Thanks TK! I have a doctor’s appt Friday so I hope the rain won’t be heavy.

    Lots of standing water on that day TK?

  4. And on to less embarrassing events, yet still words that can be referred to as meaningless observation.

    I am amazed at how much a house can expand and contract with the weather. I don’t recall noticing it in the house in Framingham. The wood floor planks separate in winter. There is a double door to my room that catches on a metal plate at the top to keep it closed. I have to push relatively hard to get it to close in summer. Now, it barely remains closed.

      1. I don’t see buffalo beating Jacksonville at Jacksonville so I’m betting it’s Tennessee

  6. The playoff games that are not involving the Pats I usually put on my TV with no volume while I listen to tunes. 😉 Looking forward to that today as I work on inside projects. Volume goes up for the Bruins tonight. 😉

    1. It would seem their volume is up in more ways than one. Nice roll they are on lately, as with the Celtics as well.

      1. I wish I could like the NBA more than I do, but I very much appreciate the Celts this season. Impressive.

  7. Thanks TK! Looking forward to the next couple days. Some nice seasonable winter weather. The cold’s been interesting, but I’m ready to be able to stay outside a little longer.

    I do not think we get out of the 1/12-1/20 period without at least one sizable winter weather event featuring snow or ice all the way to the coast. Friday does look to be a big time melt day though. 50+ and rain looks inevitable to me.

    1. Won’t surprise me if we are unsettled for up to 5 straight days starting Friday. I didn’t really include Thursday which will probably just be a mostly cloudy day although some light snow/ice/rain may visit part of the region early in the day.

      1. I was under the impression that any Thursday precip would hold off until overnight at the earliest and just increasing clouds early.

        Is there a small system to pass through?

        1. I think we get a little precip Wed night / early Thursday with a warm front. And the only reason this front is gonna get through is because it’s being driven by a west wind surface and aloft. It’s not going to be followed by some big surge of warmth air, only warmer relative to what we’ve had.

    1. I think we could have 2 to 2 1/2 days of occasional mix/snow starting Sunday. But that’s getting more detailed than I should this far in advance. Just feel like I have a handle on the transition of this pattern.

  9. Why do I have the feeling that this first game is going to go to OT tied up, at ZERO. 😉

  10. We are flying to Hawaii through Atlanta on 1/13 – departing Logan at 6 am. Is it worth trying to change our flight to the day before – change fees are hefty bc no weather yet – or just stay the course? I can’t quite follow if the thought is snow on sat am or if precipitation that early will still be rain. Of course I know this is still early… thanks as always for any advice!

    1. Stay the course. It’s 6 days away but I can see interior areas going to ice sometime Saturday while the coast stays as rain, if anything is falling.

    2. Priceless, Vicki…Thanks for sharing! You wouldn’t believe what I have heard in my career! I am going to compile them in a book and that’s how I am going to make my millions!

  13. That was a fun game to watch. As Jennifer says, basically waiting to see who screws up last. I’m glad not all NFL games are high scoring slugfests in the offense department.

    1. It was awful. I don’t care that there wasn’t a lot of scoring, but the play was terrible. Just pathetic.

      1. I didn’t see the game but as long as we face Tennessee that is fine with me. My concern with Buffalo is that it can be tricky beating a team 3 times in the same season. Didn’t the Pats lose to the Jets a few years back in a similar scenario?

          1. She’s one of my techies 😉 And a football fanatic. Like, over the top fanatic. 😛

  15. Even though technically it stays light considerably longer now, it seems to suddenly get real dark all of sudden if you are not really paying close attention. I can’t really explain it.

    1. It happens this way every year. 🙂 Today, you may also be in the shadow of high and middle cloud patches which are starting to take over the sky during this evening’s twilight. Lots of warming aloft means an overcast Monday ahead.

  16. I do not believe the patriots or the steelers want to face the Jags. The Jags strength is the pass defense, Patriots least favorable opponent in my opinion and the steelers could be without one of the B’s

  18. Models all over the place.
    EURO: Easter/central great lakes
    Euro ensemble over us, digs deeper down.
    GFS over our area
    GFS ensembles South and east.
    German colder over the region/south.
    EURO is the warmest. Most models showing a mix of precipitation.

    1. Euro is over amplified and therefore too far north with the low track. It will correct within 4 runs.

      1. So there is a better than 50% chance the pats could be playing in either a mix or snow Tk

      2. I am with you TK. They really need to look at more than one model when Eric and Danielle aren’t there.

  26. With the NFL Playoffs. What the heck is a catch I just have a feeling is going to cause the patriots one of these games. NFC is fully loaded and think unless its the eagles, that the NFC will win the superbowl. In the AFC, all these teams have glaring weaknesses, but some of these weaknesses can be overcome by strengths. I actually really want to see the steelers/Jags game as I think that could be an extremely interesting game. Saints and vikings who ever wins out of that will be representative of the NFC i believe.

  27. A couple tweets from meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    Meanwhile, a strong area of low pressure is being monitored for the end of the week that may end up further east and with a lot more snow than rain in the forecast.

    I have said it once, I will say it again; do not trust details on storm tracks for storms beyond 3 days out. Remember that by Friday.

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