Tuesday Forecast

79 Comments

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)
No real changes. Fair weather dominates into Wednesday then an unsettled weather stretch gets underway, starting quite mild but then we’ll be watching the return of cold air, first at the surface, which may set up an icing situation for at least interior southern and central New England during Saturday.
TODAY: Increasing sun. Highs 32-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 interior valleys, 15-20 coast except 20-25 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: A pre-dawn period of light rain with some possible light icing interior areas. Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-33. Highs 36-44.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures rise to 42-49.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/ice. Temperatures falling in the 30s, coldest interior areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)
Additional unsettled weather with mix/snow possible in the January 14-16 time frame then fair weather later in the period with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)
Fair and chilly early in the period then some unsettled weather and temperature moderation.

79 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    It was flaking on the way into the office today. Noting much, just a few lonely
    flakes drifting to the ground.

      1. Yeah something is off. Of course, I am not making judgments or predictions, just posting what the models are currently showing.
        But then you know that. 😀 😀

  6. Thank you, TK!

    Slightly colder weather on tap this week for the British Isles (particularly Scotland) and northwestern Europe, with an area of fairly weak high pressure to the north, variable winds and a tiny bit more sun (they’ve had precious little for weeks). However, it looks like the area of high pressure will shift northward and the prevailing west/southwesterly will begin to dominate again starting this weekend and early next week with rising temperatures, light rain, and fog as Atlantic lows traverse north of the region. So, what does this mean for us? I don’t know. But, if my observed correlation holds any water at all I don’t think we’re going to have a prolonged thaw, and we may revert to some moderate cold and a few snow chances next week.

  9. TK – While I would certainly not expect another 13 day bitter cold outbreak, is it possible for, let’s say a 5-6 days worth sometime again down the road?

    Just morbidly curious.

  10. Most of the overnight models into 12z today have trended west/warmer for the Saturday storm. Looks like we did not pick an ideal weekend to go to Jay Peak as even up there near the Canadian border it looks like rain to ice situation.

    Check out this incredible temperature gradient on the 12z GFS for Saturday. 17F at Burlington VT to low 60’s in SNE. You don’t see that very often….

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://i.imgur.com/nH9PZLP.png&key=62815cee9e33444c83f1c8e5dab414d00d255a01da98c6c371f34d492ba7fa10

      1. Old house with heat loss. I’ve had new and old houses. I prefer the old ones better despite the quirks!

  13. Cloudy and snowing lightly in Manchester CT. Havent seen the sun yet. A bit of a forecast bust down here today.

    1. thank you, sir!

      I know it is only Tuesday but I do not like that ice for Saturday. There will be a lot of driving in and around Gillette and also to various parties.

    2. Big bust potential with that temperature gradient setting up over New England on Saturday. I could see the 38 or 58 verifying depending on the ultimately storm track.

  19. 12Z Euro wants to take Saturday system from central PA across NW MA up
    to the tip of Maine. Wondering if a another shift to the East is in the cards????

  20. Tweet from Meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    The ECMWF Operational guidance has started the shift to the southeast. Pretty significant jump by about 75-100 miles. Now, let’s see the EPS!

  21. Give the models a bit more time to adjust to a storm track that will be over or south of southern New England Saturday.

  24. I am disappointed we won’t see a snow bowl on Saturday. What are the chances of a heavy rain bowl?

    1. I think the majority of the precip may be done by game time. I hope so, I’ve always thought bad weather in football is to the advantage of the underdog.

  25. Low lying, cold dense air usually spreads out pretty well and I’m guessing is underestimated in its projected southern extent by models.

  26. It’s funny, I’ve seen some posts today laughing at global warming/climate change because of that snowstorm in the northwest Sahara desert.

    I look at it the other way, why is it precipitating in an area that should be dry ?

    In all fairness, I do know that this region in the cold season does get occasional bouts of precipitation.

    But, if we start seeing the Sahara or the chilean coast in South America get more frequent precipitation events, we’ll know we’re in trouble.

    2. They’ve had several such episodes there. The last one before this one was 40 years ago. It’s just an event that has a low frequency of occurrence.

      1. it has happened two years in a row, before that was 40 years ago i believe. there is a changing climate thats a certain. Its also a certain that the major player is our activities.

        1. I didn’t dispute that. 🙂 I was just saying that measurable snow in that area is a very low frequency occurrence. The event most recent to this one was December 2016 but it was not measurable. It hardly even RAINS in that location. 🙂

  27. 00z NAM showing cold high pressure bridging to the north. 0C surface isotherm not too far north of mass border at 84 hrs.

  28. Tom, I agree with your comments. Unfortunately, both sides of the `argument’ overplay events like the snow in the Sahara, or the invasion of Arctic air into many of the lower 48 states, or the anomalously mild winter thus far in parts of Eurasia and Asia. An unusual event doesn’t by itself validate or refute any theory. It’s the statistical trend – gathering climactic data as thoroughly as possible from thousands of locales – that affirms the existence of global warming. The tricky part is finding a causal relation between mankind’s carbon footprint and other ways in which the environment is impacted by humans and global warming. I believe there is a causal relationship, but it’s a very complicated one as climate changes (often dramatic ones) occurred prior to humans and have been part and parcel of earth for hundreds of millions if not billions of years. Quite frankly, I think the more easily observable effects of mankind’s poor stewardship of the environment – polluted waters, extinction of certain species, smog, ozone layer deterioration, etc … are more alarming than global warming itself. Industrialized nations have sort of addressed these issues, but often in a one step forward two steps back kind of way, while industrializing nations are not doing anything to limit the negative impact of industrialization on the environment. I blame U.S. CEOs (and U.S. consumers who only seem to care about the prices of goods, not their quality or their origins) as much as I do, say, the Chinese. Environmental conditions in cities like Beijing are deplorable. I have several friends who lived there and confirmed this to me. The (still mostly U.S., Japanese, and European owned) factories are mostly manufacturing goods for consumption by us.

  29. 1. There is only one side that is accurate and is based on facts. That other side is like the tobacco industry 😉
    2. You are right in that an individual event does not validate or refute any theory, it is the statistical trend with other stuff intermixed. With that said everything points to the industrial revolution 😉
    3. Planet earth does not need us humans, if we continue to treat her like crap, she squish us like we are a pest.
    4. Climate change effects those who are least responsible for it. From food, to Health, to water.
    5. Climate change has happened in the passed but not as extreme as this, I would like to see the source of it not being that are credible.
    6. This leads to the next thing, us as scientists have always been told let your research do the talking, well, that has note gone well. Both sides cherry pick the information but those who do it the most… are those deniers. This is why I say scientists need to make two papers, one in the scientific Journals and then a report and video on the research and give it personally to the news media. Do not have a middle person right from the source to the people and make it a darn PDF and sue their behinds if they alter it.

    Sorry i been seeing this as well and its making me mad.

    1. “5. Climate change has happened in the passed but not as extreme as this, I would like to see the source of it not being that are credible.”

      How can you even begin to know this? If you believe the earth is 4.x billion years old you mean to tell me you have every case of “climate change” documented and can say what we see now is the most extreme?

      The earth was once much hotter…like inhospitable for humans. So by that comparison we’ve cooled down a ton. Life once flourished here when oxygen was minimal and couldn’t support life as we know it. So technically oxygen is a poison that killed a ton of stuff and let us and other creatures flourish.

      The problem with climate change aka global warming is there is not enough documented and recorded about the climate past several centuries to even begin to make any statements like that. Maybe what you think is normal is abnormal and what you think is abnormal is actually returning us to normal.

      1. We do have the means to measure climate change past several centuries, actually we have the ability before the dino’s. Everything starts with the oceans which were formed around 3.75 billion years ago. this occured when there was a cooling period. Before that it was all gas. 😉
        First life occurred around 600 million years ago.
        We have ocean beds, rocks, soil, fossils, shells, very accurate climate data and we have very accurate climate models that are much better than our every day weather models. If you need proof go to google scholar and do your research. I know I have done mine.

  30. Excellent comments all. If I were to chose one small part that I think makes the most impact….the most sense…it would be this from Joshua.

    Quite frankly, I think the more easily observable effects of mankind’s poor stewardship of the environment – polluted waters, extinction of certain species, smog, ozone layer deterioration, etc … are more alarming than global warming itself.

  31. NWS Tweet-BREAKING] An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.8 has occurred in the Caribbean Sea at 952 PM EST. Tsunami NOT expected to impact US mainland and a very low threat to PR or VI.

    1. That faultline is involved with the northern movement of the North Andeas Plate. Its a moderately active fault line.

    1. Yep, the 0z GFS has shifted even further southeast with the Friday/Saturday low now tracking right over NYC and Boston. Mix/ice actually makes it all the way down into NE MA at the end of the storm as the precip is shutting off.

      Keep the trend going…I need it dumping snow at Jay Peak on Saturday!

      1. NNE especially mountains should get a good snow dumping Saturday. Remember those forecasts for upper 50s Saturday in southern New England? 😉 Maybe southern New Jersey Saturday morning…

        1. It sure looks like it is trending that way. 0z Euro is farther SE and colder as well with an I-95 track! If this trend continues, it is going to start to get interesting even down here in interior SNE.

  33. good morning,

    Still trending. look at the 6Z Nam. FIM is colder as well.

    Want to see those 12Z runs.

    btw, the GFS ans cmc have lost the 1/17,1/18 snow storm, but the euro now
    has a minor threat for that period.

    re: climate change.
    I am with Joshua.

    What we do to this planet disgusts me. I’ll make some comments that
    generally speaks to this. Way back in 1970 when I landed my first full time
    job after college, I was speaking with a colleague who was telling me about his families paper mill on a river up North. I specifically asked him about the mill polluting the River and he said of course it’s polluting the river, how else would they be able to make a profit. And there ya go.

    Also, I remember as kid my family was driving through Fitchburg, Ma and we traveled over the Nashua River. It was so polluted, the water was gray/white. Revolting!!!! Closer to home the Byrd CO in Walpole was responsible
    for rendering the Neponset River almost as bad as the Nashua. Now, to be fair both local rivers have been cleaned up over the past 50 years and we need to improve even more.

    We could say ditto with air pollution all over and resulting acid rain. It goes on and on.

    Make money, SCREW the planet.

    No matter ones opinion on climate change, TAKE CARE OF OUR PLANET!!

    End of today’s rant, now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

  35. Looking at Cod site 6z NAM does show some ice accumulation Saturday for Boston area as well inland areas of MA and northern parts of CT.

Comments are closed.