The Week Ahead

27 Comments

5:29PM

* Stormy Start

Looks like the unsettled pattern we have gotten ourselves into this month so far will continue early this week as a trough of low pressure and plenty of moisture combine to make a very wet start to the week Monday, lingering into Tuesday as the upper low is slow to depart.

* Nicer Midweek

High pressure should provide fair weather with lower humidity for Wednesday and Thursday.

* Unsettled Interlude

Another frontal system is expected to chug across the region with a threat of showers Friday into Saturday.

* Bright Finish?

As long as things don’t bog down in the atmosphere, we should see improving conditions next weekend from later Saturday through Sunday.

* Tropics

More active, but no immediate threats to the East Coast including New England. This may change as we get deeper into August. See below…

* Heat

No major heat in sight through this week. Even though it is getting later into summer now, you know we can still see hot days, and those are still possible as there still are signs of a Bermuda High regime possibly setting up later this month. That would also increase the chance of tropical cyclones threatening the US East Coast.

* “So, just give me the forecast.” Ok, here it is, for the Boston area, for the coming week.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest and most widespread after midnight. Slight risk of embedded thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Mild & muggy. Low 62-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Rain much of the time, with periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Cool but humid. High 67-72. Wind E 10-15 MPH inland with gusts up to 20 MPH, 15-20 MPH coast with gusts up to 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle along with areas of fog. Mild and humid. Low 62-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog near the coast during the morning. Isolated to scattered showers. Mild and humid. High 72-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Low 64. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 64. High 80.

SUNDAY:  Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

27 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Alaska is headed into a much below normal temperature stretch, which usually means we warm up, which TK could be seeing. But this would mean that after a warm up, we would have to go through below normal temps following the warm up, which would not occur to early September if I had to guess.
    The long range EURO is showing a push of hot air that reaches the Canadian border with a fairly zonal pattern. However it also shows Canada building some chilly air, could mean a cool and wet Autumn as that cold air tries to push south.

  2. Thunderstorm Index at 1 tomorrow since I am not expecting severe weather if any thunderstorms should develop.
    It is good to be back from vacation despite the weather being crummy. I would like to see some of the rain down where the wildfire is in North Carolina. I smelt smoke from that yesterday and Friday as the wind direction sent it up where I was. This is the first time I smelt smoke on vacation since I was vacationing in Florida when they had the wildfires back in the late 90s early 2000s. I don’t remember exactly.

  4. The rain is sure being stubborn to move east, it’s moving more north. It will take it’s sweet time getting to us.

  5. I wonder if some towns in central/eastern Mass are going to end up receiving a similar amount of rain today that NYC area got yesterday. Impressive belt of rain setting up in Worcester area and points south into Rhode Island………

  6. What happened to our tropical systems? Looks like 2 of them went poof.
    Looks like Philip was correct.

  8. Lates NWS discussion as of 10AM:

    BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS GETTING CONCERNED
    THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE FARTHER EAST THAN OUR CURRENT
    FLOOD WATCH. HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN CT/RI AND INTO WORCESTER
    COUNTY HAS DUMPED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 6 AM WITH LOCALLY UP TO
    4 INCHES AT HOPE VALLEY RI IN WASHINGTON COUNTY AS OF 910 AM!
    TROPICAL PWAT PLUME OF +2 INCHES OVER RI AND SE MA EXTENDING SOUTH
    OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PIVOT NE TODAY.

    IN ADDITION NOTICING A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT FROM EASTERN CT/RI
    INTO EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH. MODEST INFLOW UP AND OVER THIS
    BOUNDARY WITH BUZM3 AND IOSN3 SHOWING ESE WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG
    WITH KBOX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 30 KT OF SE INFLOW AT 2-3
    KFT. GIVEN ITS AUGUST THIS BOUNDARY IS PROBABLY SHALLOW BUT
    NEVERTHELESS IS ENHANCING ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE
    TOPOGRAPHY/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY SHOWING WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WITH TROPICAL CONNECTION
    JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND FLOWING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COOLING
    CLOUD TOPS. ALL INDICATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING.

    1. As of now yes, but the latest NAM was showing as the low got closer, it brought in more moisture off the Atlantic, enhancing rainfall along eastern sections.

  10. OK and thanks. I get that. So we shall see.
    Personally, I don’t need all of this rain. I’d rather keep it away.

    Have a good one.

  11. Hey, Just for giggles, take a look at this 06Z GFS out for 8/31.
    It has one of the Tropical Systems coming up the coast.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F15%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  12. Sorry, I meant to post last frame only. Instead the whole loop was posted.
    Oh well. The last several frames are what is of interest.

    Thanks

  13. Hey Jimmy, welcome back from your vacation! Very surprised that the temps and humidity were tolerable down in the mid-Atlantic region. I noticed your early prediction for snowfall at less than 50″ and I concur. My early call is for 40-50″ with maybe as high as 55″ regionwide for SNE. As much as I like snow, I would like a bit of a respite from the heavy snow of last winter. For me, it was difficult getting around at times. Still a bit early to be totally confident on my numbers even if I end up being completely wrong last I was last time. Perhaps with “normal” snowfall Boston gets its first ice storm in years…we will see.

    2. Hey Philip…. The temperatures went down later in the week but the first part of the week highs were in the 90s with the dewpoints in the low 70s. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday the temperatures dropped along with the humidity. The dew point at one time on Thursday morning dipped to 59 degrees.
      I don’t see a repeat of last winter at all is I indicated yesterday and I think right now no more than 50 inches for Boston. My friends at The Farmers’ Almanac joke are calling for a wet and mild winter from what I read on their discussion forums with two big storm threats between the 20-23rd of February and the 4th-7th of March will see.

  14. Hey Tom…I noticed your post over on the WBZ blog about this winter-like setup. I agree and in fact, there is currently a coastal front setting up from eastern CT, RI, eastern MA and southern NH with E/SE winds along the coast and N winds inland. If this were mid-February instead of mid-August there would be a good rain/snow battle near us right now. We will probably get a LOT of rain today and this evening.

  15. GFS musings…

    What a difference 6 hours makes when looking out 15-16 days.

    The 12Z GFS now takes the same Tropical System into Louisiana,Mississipi.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F15%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=360&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    I know we shouldn’t take stock in the GFS that far out, But I find it interesting to
    at least see a projection of these tropical systems. Yes, I know. GFS is not model of
    choice for hurricanes, but then they don’t allow us to view the contents of those?
    At least I don’t think they do.

  16. Scott!!! LOL!

    Good one!

    I hear you. Even so, I still like to check em out, just like we did for snowstorms
    in the Winter.

    Have a great day and enjoy the rest of the rain.

  17. The mets have been taking a bashing on WBZ for “overforecasting” this storm. I’m so glad that the non mets and trolls know what’s going to happen before the experts. Not to say the mets are always right, but IMO, they did just fine on this one.

    1. TK, I went to the WBZ blog a few times today ( I even posted which I rarely do) and actually didn’t see any met bashing for a change…unless there was some earlier and “management” took it down very quickly.

    1. Still wating for the rain/snow line to collapse toward the coast, lol. 🙂

      Actually if you stop and think about it…just one more “season” to go.

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