Wednesday Forecast

101 Comments

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)
High pressure controls today’s weather which will be pleasant in comparison to recent harshness. A warm front passes the region tonight and milder air arrives Thursday and Friday, though Friday will turn out wet as tropical moisture arrives from the southwest. An arctic high pressure area bridging across eastern Canada will send a cold front through the region early Saturday as a wave of low pressure approaches and then passes through from the southwest. A colder surface but still warm air aloft means that the rain that falls during Saturday morning and midday will likely result in icing over portions of interior southern New England, though the finer details of this are not yet clear.
TODAY: Sunshine. Highs 34-40. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Brief pre-dawn light rain and freezing rain mainly northwest of Boston. Lows 30-38. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain. Highs 45-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Morning to midday rain with possible inland ice. Temperatures falling to 30-38.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)
Periods of mix/snow possible January 15-16. Dry weather beyond this. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)
Milder. Dry weather to start, some unsettled weather possible mid to late period.

101 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. First again? So, I don’t always post, but do check the blog every morning as soon as I get into work. If there’s a lot to read, I can postpone working, sometimes almost indefinitely!
    Thanks TK

  6. The MBTA just announce that they’ve canceled busing over the Longfellow Bridge this weekend, which got me wondering if the weather was really going to be THAT bad. Or maybe it’s something else?

  7. CMC now has a nice little event for 1/17 while the GFS has it but “just” off shore.
    Now let’s see IF the Euro has even a sniff of this one. 😀

  9. I have a question that is about as far from being weather related as you can get. I am hoping the teachers here will weigh in but think it would be fun to see what others think.

    I was watching my granddaughter do her homework last night. She had to take a list of suffixes and place them in a circle. One circle was for suffixes that began with consonants and another for suffixes that began with vowels.

    One of the choices was Y

    I was curious which box others would choose for the Y

    Thank you.

    2. Consonants. Yes, I know we were taught that the vowels
      were a,e,i,o,u and “sometimes” y.

      I would still place the y with the consonants. Again, just my thought.

        1. Absolutely…..sometimes Y. So technically wouldn’t it go in both places?

          She is a thinker (loves math, Tom) and thought both places but said she would put it with the consonants because her teacher is a yeller and she was afraid to take a chance.

    3. Fascinating question… I just spent 15 minutes online researching and seemed to find a few different interpretations… Based on what I read, the fact that it would be making a vowel sound would make it be a vowel in this case… but I did find some conflicting sites.
      From one site:
      “Vowel suffixes” are simply suffixes that begin with a vowel. Some examples of common vowel suffixes are es, ed, ing, er, y, en, est, and able.”
      I did not understand that the definition of a vowel vs. a consonant is all about the sound itself and how the sound is made… of course, been a long time since those early English classes!

      1. Wow – thanks and kudos, tjammer! After your research, would you put it in vowel? or maybe both?

        My coworker and I had a discussion recently because I had an placed before the term MBA (an MBA). The reasoning is that the M had an em sound so an is precedes it based on that sound and not the consonant. I did not go as far as you and research Y. But I was trying to figure out in what instances Y would be a vowel or if it would only ever be a consonant as a prefix.

        If I were a third grade teacher, I think I would be inclined to give a child a pat on the back if he or she placed it in both.

        1. Well, I would go with Vowel…
          More:
          The letter Y can be regarded as both a vowel and a consonant. In terms of sound, a vowel is ‘a speech sound which is produced by comparatively open configuration of the vocal tract, with vibration of the vocal cords but without audible friction…’, while a consonant is ‘a basic speech sound in which the breath is at least partly obstructed’.

          The letter Y can be used to represent different sounds in different words, and can therefore fit either definition. In myth or hymn it’s clearly a vowel, and also in words such as my, where it stands for a diphthong (a combination of two vowel sounds). On the other hand, in a word like beyond there is an obstacle to the breath which can be heard between two vowels, and the same sound begins words like young and yes. (This consonant sound, like that of the letter W, is sometimes called a ‘semivowel’ because it is made in a similar way to a vowel, but functions in contrast to vowels when used in words.) Whether the letter Y is a vowel or a consonant is therefore rather an arbitrary decision. The letter is probably more often used as a vowel, but in this role it’s often interchangeable with the letter I. However, the consonant sound is not consistently represented in English spelling by any other letter, and perhaps for this reason Y tends traditionally to be counted among the consonants.

          1. Thank you. GREAT explanation. I cannot recall. Are you a teacher?

            I’ll let you know what her teacher says. I am quite curious.

            1. No, I’m a senior IT guy at a pharma / biotech probably pretty close to you, but I do enjoy a little research!

              1. Nice. And I think you would make a great teacher if you decide to change careers! Although, I believe IT folks have curious mindsets. Thanks again.

  10. If the 12z GFS is correct, southern New England might see light freezing drizzle or mist Saturday evening as the cold air pours in at low levels, but a NNE wind flow keeps some very light precip going.

    1. Yes, and IF the NAM is correct, it would keep frozen something going and it
      looks like it could even be SLEET as opposed to Freezing Rain.

      Either way, it could Impact the big game at Foxborough Or Foxboro if you like.

      1. I found your comment interesting. I probably should know the difference between freezing rain and sleet; but alas, I did not remember.

        I found this but want to check if it is accurate.

        “Both freezing rain and sleet occur by the same general process: liquid raindrops in a layer of warm air well above the surface fall into a layer of freezing air hugging the ground. The difference between these two wintry precipitation types depends on the thickness of the layer of freezing air.”

          1. Sleet is rain drops frozen into a pellet and thus ping and bounce when hitting the ground or a surface while freezing rain is super cooled raindrops that freeze on contact generally producing a slippery glaze.

    1. Euro advertising the chance of a little ocean effect snow/flurries During Sunday PM and evening. Winds NNE along the coast and N to NNW inland. Setting
      up a bit of convergence. Something to watch.

      FIGURES, I changed our dinner reservations from Saturday Evening to
      Sunday evening due to the change of ice on Saturday.

      Don’t want to get caught in Snow Sunday evening. I mean I don’t care, but my wife is very uncomfortable when we are driving in the snow.

  12. Just giving an update on where I am at for Grad school. I am going to take a year off from school and work, many require entry in the fall and I am not ready for the GRE. while studying for the GRE, getting a car and getting ready for grad school, I am going for a biology minor this spring as well as doing some aquaculture stuff doing two or three classes that i been wanting to do all this time and they just have not worked out. I am done with all my requirements for my Major and Anthropology minor and be graduating this Spring. I be looking for different jobs for the May 2018 to 2019, starting grad school in 2019. I have zeroed in on a few different schools up in Maine, Uconn in CT, down in Virginia, Florida , Caribbean (USVI), Sweden and Australia.

    2. Very impressed with the work you have put in and the accomplishments. Best of luck going forward!

  13. 12Z EURO SNOW for 1/17. (snow well North and West is from Saturday, not 1/17
    as 1/17 is strictly Eastern sections)

    https://imgur.com/a/OKzZ8

    Also, please note: very close to a clobbering from a follow-up system racing
    up the coast. As of now too far off-shore.

    1. We are going to have some things to track the next couple weeks. The GFS has an east coast bomb in the long range as well though take it with a grain of salt as it is out in the 300+ hour fantasy range.

  14. 12z Euro basically with an offshore track now for Saturday….getting colder and colder. Ironically the GFS actually ticked a bit back west.

    Regarding the potential midweek coastal storm next week, the Euro still has it…and drops a general 3-6″ in SNE with localized higher amounts in NE MA.

      1. The JMA has had a track just south of New England for a few days now. It’s cold bias in this situation actually paid off for it.

  16. We’ve seen the continued slow correction southeast for Saturday. I think the current model consensus is pretty close to what will happen. Friday is rain everywhere. Saturday, coastal rain, inland icing (north and west of 495), some snow in the far north mountains. Also noting models advertising more sleet than freezing rain. So at this point I’m not overly concerned about a major ice storm, but there may be a band of moderate glaze icing. Behind all that, colder, but not as cold as recent times.

    I’m increasingly looking out for a significant winter storm early-mid next week. One chance around Monday, the other around Wednesday. Models not resolving that period well at this time IMO.

  17. I’m going to answer Vicki’s question down here so that she’ll see it (hopefully). I’m a special ed reading specialist and one of the things we spend a lot of time on is suffixes and vowels. Y actually is usually a vowel. It has to be a vowel in the suffix “y” and “ly” because otherwise you wouldn’t have a vowel in the syllable. And you have to have a vowel in every syllable or else you can’t say it. Suffixes are usually classified as vowel or consonant suffixes, depending on the first letter.

    The important thing though, is not so much to identify the suffix but rather to identify the baseword. I don’t know what her teacher will focus on, but it’s important that she understands that suffixes are added to words that can stand by themselves. The letters can very well just be letters. (ex, there’s no suffix in lily or candy).

    As you can tell, I was kind of excited by this question!

    1. Thank you and I love this response. I have been intrigued by it also. She does understand the concept of a suffix.

      I’m thinking that this point just having a Y might have been misleading. Please correct me if I am wrong. I can clearly see how in “ly” is a vowel. It has the sound of “e” But Y alone has the sound of a consonant.

      Question, if it is usually a vowel…which I think caught us all by surprise other than you and tj….doesn’t “usually” imply it can be both?

      I thought it would be a consonant usually (using the “ly” vowel 🙂 ) but still should go in both. I see I was incorrect in my assumption about its usual placement.

      TK – I appreciate your tolerance for my question. I would not have asked if we had a storm brewing!

  18. Thank you WxW!! Maybe we could direct next week to Monday please??? I have my monthly Dana grief group meeting Wednesday. It is one thing I do that I really disliking missing.

  19. The over or south of New England low track for Saturday remains. I am leaning south enough that it actually may pass south and east of Cape Cod. That would bring the icing area right into the heart of the Boston area but also narrow it down somewhat as the snow area would expand further south and east thanks to cold enough air aloft. Still some details to resolve.

    Keeping clouds and occasional snow/mix in forecast Sunday through Tuesday as noted above. I do think it’s out of here sometime Wednesday, or even by late Tuesday night. But there are obviously many details to iron out regarding that period of time.

    There were already words like “lasting thaw” and “spring” being tossed around some media outlets. Try again.

  22. On “Wheel of Fortune” the letter Y is always considered a consonant. Over the years of the show I don’t recall contestants being allowed to buy a Y under any circumstances.

    On Wheel the only vowels are A,E,I,O,U! 🙂

    2. Do you think we could ever see that same exact scenario play out again regarding the snow , multiple tide cycles & damage . Of course the warning would get out there .

      1. We could see a very similar synoptic situation, yes. The impact would be different, overall, but let’s just say, hypothetically, that a storm like that sat still in the same place up against a similar high to the north and lasted through 4 tide cycles that were already astronomically high. We’d still, in theory, get the same amount of water on the coast but if the set-up was altered it would have a different result, even if just slightly. The road situation would never happen the same way again.

          1. I agree regarding the road situation. Nowadays there is much warning in advance so highly unlikelyhood of stranded vehicles. Upcoming major weather events are very hard to ignore these days.

  25. The Y discussion makes me think of Brian Regan:
    “I” before “E” except after “C” and when sounding like “A” as in neighbor and weigh, and on weekends and holidays and all throughout May, and YOU’LL ALWAYS BE WRONG NO MATTER WHAT YOU SAY!!!!

    1. I love it. I had a teacher at Katy Gibbs who had all sorts of tricks. Always be accommodating with two c’s and two m’s. An occasional “s”

      She also taught my mom and I think she gave up on me. I am hoping somewhere up in the heavens she smiles knowing that every time I spell a word that relates to one of her little sayings that I think of her. She superseded all teachers in my memory. Supersede …literally supersedes the others because it is the only one spelled with an sede!

  26. Vicki, very technically–the y as a suffix is actually an open syllable. An open syllable is a syllable that has just one vowel and ends with that vowel (and therefore the vowel is long, unless it’s a schwa but let’s not go there). So, examples of open syllables are words like: me, so, my, etc. Also the words “a” and “I” are open syllables. So, plain y is a vowel suffix and ly is a consonant suffix. Truthfully, for a kid–the important point is:
    what’s the suffix? what’s the baseword? and maybe what part of speech. When I teach phonics, I hope for the kids to learn to love the language and the sound symbol relationships. I don’t much care if they remember their vowel/consonant syllables. Truthfully, some of the kids that I work with end up knowing more about the English language than their teachers.

    1. Thank you, Deb. I asked my granddaughter to read here. If she has trouble following, I think I will copy and paste all of the great answers!

  27. WOW!!! Wankum is a motorcycle racer & he’s very good at it. Watch chronicle I think tonight.

  28. Eric is warning of flash freeze Saturday afternoon most areas.

    Harvey has icing potential even for Boston.

    JR has no issues at all for Saturday as any icing stays well to the north.

    Potential snow next Tues-Wed?

  32. I think early-mid next week is a great snow setup . Mean trough to the west. Cold air mass in place. Multiple shortwaves in the flow. It’s hard to say how it will play out in terms of different pieces of energy interacting. I could see a couple of light-moderate events, or one bigger event depending on the timing of features. Always possible it fails to come together at the surface, but it’s something to watch. It’s certainly an upper air pattern you look for though in terms of East Coast storminess. Unlike our recent storm, this clearly would not be one the models are locked in on (big picture wise) a week ahead of time.

  33. Wonderful discussion on Y today. As a language teacher (and a newspaper reporter in my other life), I love words, grammar and etymology of words. In today’s Spanish class, ironically, we learned that “y” smooths out Spanish words when there are three strong vowels together. “Leieron” (they read) is too choppy. You replace the i with a y (leyeron) to smooth out the sound. Sound is everything in Spanish.

    I was going to suggest “Tell Me Y” by The Beatles as tonight’s soundtrack, but it’s too punny!

    1. 0c sfc isotherm down to south coast by 4pm and below 0c by 7pm with patchy precip still indicated by simulated radar.

  37. Heard too many TV forecasters talking about amounts (a couple inches, not a big storm) regarding the threat for next Tuesday / Wednesday. I saw other sources with “amounts” (actually model #’s) and ranges – 6 to 8 inches was one example I saw.

    Also heard one TV forecaster mention that the upcoming event (Friday) is not going to be a bomb cyclone, just an ordinary storm.

    I’m disappointed in all of that. It never ends.

    Saw a whole lot of model hugging going on too. Yup, that worked great a few days ago regarding this Saturday, didn’t it?

    1. Pete did say “a few inches” and Eric did actually use the word “snowstorm”. I myself didn’t see any specific numbers though.

      1. The problem with tossing out the term “snowstorm” this far in advance (not that it’s wrong to use it) is that people will immediately think worst-case scenario. There is a prevalent mentality to think the most recent major system will repeat itself.

        And evening mentioning “a few inches” is quite risky. I can look at some model data this far out, taken as is, and make a case for a major dumping, a complete miss, or anything in between.

    1. Say hello to the early arrival Red Sox (minor leaguers). My guess is that Fort Myers is a beehive of baseball activity even prior to the day that catchers and pitchers must report. I miss baseball.

  39. I’m up north in Vermont at my sister’s. My car is stuck in a snowbank, but hopefully with some help I’ll be able to move it. The nice, healthy snowpack is about to be reduced in size significantly, though I suspect it won’t all go. There will be some flooding and a lot of waterlogged areas as well as fog. The biggest fear around here is the threat of freezing rain and a flash freeze after the rain has ended.

  40. I know it is only Thursday, but models are all over the place for next week’s possible event. Euro is most robust with a major big time storm. Only problem is it has RAIN along the coastal plain. Big time Dump for central NY state. And pretty good for the berks.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018011100/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

    GFS hugs coast, but keeps it snow in boston. cmc similar. both moderate event at best. Something like 3-6, 4-8 or so.

    Still plenty of time, but a potential biggie is on the table. We shall see. I would not be surprised if it rained in Boston at all.

  43. I am looking forward to enjoying the next 2 days worth of mild temps before the cold air returns Saturday. This warmup is well earned 🙂 and deserved.

  44. New post!

    I didn’t get super detailed on where to expect the most ice Saturday but will do that starting in comments later and on tomorrow’s blog post.

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