Thursday Forecast

61 Comments

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)
2-day warm-up underway, today with lots of clouds but no rain, Friday overcast and turning quite wet but also the warmer of the 2 days. With snow-melt, this brings a road and small stream flood threat, so be aware of that. Cold air comes back in rather quickly from west to east during Saturday, and with additional low pressure having to pass through and lingering moisture behind it, this means rain to ice, and eventually some snow, though not a big deal with the snow. The degree of icing depends on location. There will be more north and west as it is colder there sooner with more rain in the region. Later in the day only light and more spotty precipitation is expected but by then it should be cold enough to start any rain to the south and east freezing on surfaces and for any standing water to start freezing over as well, especially by night, when we will see lingering precipitation in the form of snow as the cold air has moved in sufficiently at all levels for this. By then it will be very light so no real accumulation of snow is expected. A weak high pressure area should partially clear it out for Sunday although it will be a cold day. Clouds may re-take the sky by MLK Jr Day on Monday due to a northeast air flow and cannot rule out some light snow that day.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain. Highs 47-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Frequent rain showers, heavy at times. Local flooding likely. Temperatures steady 47-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periodic to frequent rain transitioning to freezing rain from northwest to southeast as precipitation tapers off and then by evening areas of light freezing rain/drizzle south and east except just rain Cape Cod, and areas of light sleet/snow north and west with little accumulation. Temperatures fall through the day reaching 30-35 south and east and 25-30 north and west by evening. Wind shifting to NW and N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)
Watch for a storm system bringing mix/snow to the region in the January 16-17 period as a clipper system redeveloping nearby – details to work out. Dry and cold after this.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)
Less cold. A dry start and end to the period with some mid-period unsettled weather.

61 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK.

    Will be eyeing the river gauges this weekend. Around 2″ of rainfall looks likely for many, locally higher. 2-4″ of water also on the ground in the form of our snow pack, most of which will melt the next few days. So you’re looking at a net add of ~3-5″ of liquid to the rivers. Even that is not enough for major flood concerns, but some minor to perhaps briefly moderate river flooding is possible in a few spots, along with some urban flood issues in the usual locations. I like the site at the link below, it’s helpful for a probabilistic look at river flood potential using different model ensembles.

    http://www.weather.gov/erh/MMEFS

    2. And …. there’s probably some thick ice built up on many rivers, so the potential for ice jams to create sudden water buildups behind them may be higher than usual.

      1. Eric was WARNING about that last night. Could cause HUGE
        issues.

        Eric was also concerned about a FLASH FREEZE on Saturday.

  11. It is 49 degrees in Sudbury now and the sun is out. Wow. Winter is over! 🙂 Just joking. I am sure there is a lot of winter left. And I bet more Arctic air, too.

    2. The GFS wants to spin a closed 500mb Low over New England for a couple
      of days. I am wondering IF there might be some off and on snow throughout???

  13. 12Z CMC wants to re-develop next week’s system over Massachusetts bringing
    mainly RAIN. Bummer, however, this is more in line with the EURO.
    So, I am guessing the Euro continues the theme of INSIDE redevelopment.

  15. That’s an interesting looking plume of east coast moisture coming tomorrow or later tomorrow.

    Major meltdown tonight and tomorrow into very early Saturday morning with dp’s of 45+ or higher. Some of the simulated radars for tomorrow seem to make me think elements of the rain will be convective ???

    1. Definitely some embedded convective elements, especially eastern/southeastern MA/RI. Probably two main windows for that, one tomorrow evening and the other Saturday morning. A few hundred joules of elevated CAPE and plenty of shear could lead to some rumbles of thunder and locally strong winds.

    2. Interesting discussion from NWS

      Friday

      Potent shortwave energy will be approaching from the southwest
      increasing the forcing for ascent during the afternoon and evening.
      This combined with highly anomalous Pwats 4+ standard
      deviations above normal along with a low level jet 3+ standard
      deviations above normal. These ingredients will result in heavy
      rainfall and the potential for flooding later Friday into Friday
      evening…especially with a rapidly melting snow pack as high
      temperatures likely soar into the upper 50s and lower 60s. The
      heaviest rainfall looks to overspread the region from the west
      during the afternoon and perhaps holding off until the evening
      on the coastal plain. Given storm clogged snow drains and heavy
      rainfall the potential for significant urban/street flooding
      exists with a potential impact to the Friday evening commute.
      Guidance is also indicating a few hundred J/KG of MUCape so
      would not be surprised if there was an embedded thunderstorm or
      two. As the previous shift also mentioned will have to watch
      some of the rivers and streams as well and can not rule out
      isolated ice jam flooding.

      Lastly…with the potential for temperatures across eastern
      MA/RI to reach or exceed 60 some of the strong low level jet
      might be able to mix down. This is always difficult to
      forecast…but the potential for southwest wind gusts of 40 to
      50 mph exists Friday afternoon and into the evening. Later
      shifts may need to consider a wind advisory for the coastal
      plain.

    1. Sure just in time for going out to dinner.
      My wife HATES to go out in the pouring rain.
      Can it wait until 7:05 PM in Eastern MA? Norwood specifically.

  18. Trying to plan some outside work tomorrow. Thoughts on when showers start and or when heavier rain would start. Thx all.

      1. Sorry,

        I had previously posted this in the wrong place.

        Sure just in time for going out to dinner.
        My wife HATES to go out in the pouring rain.
        Can it wait until 7:05 PM in Eastern MA? Norwood specifically.

  19. All the panels are not yet in, but early returns suggest that the Euro wants to redevelop
    next week’s clipper more off shore. Too far? I don’t know.

      1. Oh now I see that I have the in between hours.
        The original clipper re-develops over us or just South of us
        and then there is a follow-up system to the South that
        passes too far off shore. net result, not much at all.

        A few inches for Boston. Big Deal.

    2. Agreed.

      However, I do see a southwesterly 850 mb jet riding up and over colder air underneath it. I’m thinking that might squeeze out some warm air advection winters precip. Looked focused on Tuesday 1/16.

  20. Well, heading on back outside to chop the ice build up by the house, hopefully the warmer temps help melt it away

  21. Re: Euro

    NOT IMPRESSED at this time, but still subject to change.
    The 12Z changed drastically from the 0Z run, So I don’t think that it is done
    adjusting. We shall see.

    I would love to see the double wammy with 3-6 inches with the clipper and a foot
    with the follow-up. Right now looks like 2-4 inches with clipper and a MISS with
    follow-up.

    We shall see. 😀

    1. I could only look from my phone, but the last many years seems to be much
      warmer than the previous many years. However, going back to near the beginning, it also shows warmer, so perhaps the trend is meaningless
      and perhaps it is very meaningful. Hard to know.

      1. I don’t know if that is a rhetorical question or you think
        there is no disconnect and I am Daft. ???? 😀 😀 😀

        In any case, I will answer on the basis that it is a legitimate
        question:

        With the position depicted on the mean surface map, I would
        Expect some decent precipitation all over Eastern MA and there
        is just about Dittly squat when one looks at the 12 hour precip map (which also has mslp). To me, the precip map should look
        different and it doesn’t.

        Dry air? Subsidence? I dunno. Something ain’t right.

        1. Legitimate question. 🙂

          I didn’t want to add to the conversation without understanding what your view was.

  24. Models will not resolve next week well until Saturday at least… have to push this first storm out before they can “see” what’s behind it. But I continue to like the setup.

  25. The snow melting out here in Central MA is pretty rapid. Plenty of green grass showing up in areas that had a foot+ snow pack not too long ago.

    1. I’ll be up in your neck of the woods on Sunday, do u think there will still be snow on the ground?

        1. OMG, that would be quite scary for anyone nearby or even watching from a great distance LOL! Even the worms living deeply in the earth below my swing would not be safe!

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