Friday Forecast

132 Comments

4:00AM

UPCOMING BLOG POSTS
As many of you know, this year will mark the 40th anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1978. But that was not the only remarkable event of that dynamic winter. The weather pattern leading up to it was very active and, to a 10 year old, quite memorable. A little later this month I will create a special blog post with a look back through my 10 year old eyes at the month of January 1978, as it just so happened that I began my weather diary on January 1 of that year. Of course I will make a similar post about the big storm itself as we get closer to its anniversary in early February.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)
The weather pattern during the next 5-days will also be fairly dynamic and active and it will start with a very mild day today, in stark contrast to recent extreme cold. We’ll be in an area of warmth between offshore high pressure and a sharp cold front approaching from the west. My concern in the last few days included the threat of significant icing as this cold air arrived during Saturday, and the arrival of that cold will be rather sudden when it does occur with the passage of that cold front. However, the latest information suggest that the wave of low pressure that I thought would form a little sooner and pass south of New England will form near New York City Saturday morning just as the front is slicing across the region. The timing of the front is just slow enough and the low’s development just so that it will pull most of the meaningful precipitation out of a good portion of southern New England just before the coldest air pours in, but there should be spotty precipitation around so that what rain is falling will become freezing rain then sleet from northwest to southeast from late morning to early afternoon. Beyond this, only some low level moisture will be left behind and that will be good for only a little freezing or frozen drizzle and spotty very light snow heading from later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. For the Patriots home playoff game, expect temperatures falling from the 20s to the upper 10s during the course of the game with tailgaters experiencing no more than a touch of frozen drizzle drops or light snow grains. The greater danger will be from puddles and standing water and any remaining snow on the ground that will have frozen solid by the end of the day through the night. So be cautions walking or driving on untreated surfaces! The orientation of high pressure should allow just enough drying for partial sun Sunday except clouds will dominate Cape Cod and some bands of light ocean-effect snow may develop. The air flow is expected to bend a little more to become more northeast across coastal NH, eastern MA, and down into RI for some periods of ocean-effect snow, albeit light, during the MLK Jr. Day holiday on Monday. The next disturbance will approach from the west Tuesday with cold air in place and bring the chance of additional snowfall by later in the day, based on current expecting timing.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered rain showers. Highs 48-55 Cape Cod and South Coast, 56-62 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. A period of widespread rain showers, some heavy, along with a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures steady 48-62 evening. Overnight lows 48-55. Wind S 15-25 MPH, gusts as high as 40 MPH interior and 50 MPH coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog early. Another period of widespread rain showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms early to mid morning tapering off to scattered late morning through early afternoon but transitioning to freezing rain showers and sleet showers from northwest to southeast during this. Spotty light freezing drizzle, frozen drizzle, and very light snow grains mid afternoon on. Temperatures 48-55 early then falling rapidly through the 40s and 30s reaching the upper to middle 20s by the end of the day. Wind SW 15-35 MPH and gusty southeastern MA and variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere during the morning, shifting to NW to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts from northwest to southeast across the region from late morning on.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with patchy frozen drizzle and very light snow grains. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy with episodic snow showers Cape Cod with minor accumulation possible. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts across Cape Cod.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers coastal NH, eastern MA, and RI. Lows from the lower to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow late day or night. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)
Depending on the evolution and movement of low pressure, a snow/mix threat will exist January 17 and possibly into January 18 before drier weather arrives for the middle and end of the period. Temperatures below normal but moderate toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)
Expecting somewhat milder weather overall with a precipitation threat early in the period then fair weather following this.

132 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Wow does the 0z Euro have a coastal bomb for Thursday! Big snows for the interior. We’ll see if the other models come around but so far the GFS and CMC don’t develop the midweek coastal in time for a big storm in New England.

  4. Good morning and I ever disappointed with the Euro for next week!

    As Mark stated, a strong system that HUGS the coast and ends up centered over
    the Cape spiking surface, 925mb and 850 mb temps above freezing in Eastern sections. Of course this spells a good deal of rain.

    https://imgur.com/a/FtHMX

    Eastern sections pick up a few inches with some backlash snows.

    Still time for this to change as it has been different every run. It doesn’t need to shift
    very far East for Boston to get into the big snows. Will continue to monitor.

    1. Here is total snow, which include tonight/tomorrow for far northern and western sections. My service doesn’t allow a selection of a time period. I would have to show a series of 24 hour totals, so I chose this.

      https://imgur.com/a/vMGsg

  5. I find it interesting that Boston has the lowest temp in SNE this morning.

    45 while most everywhere else is 50-55.

    1. Due south wind at Logan is off of the now very cold harbor.

      Get a mile west of Logan and probably can add at least 5F to the Logan temp

  7. Thank you, TK

    Fog was thick as peanut butter this morning. I could only see one of houses across the street and only because its front lights were on

        2. I have to give credit to another here who reminded me of that a bit back. I want to say TK, but perhaps I am not remembering correctly.

  8. I look forward to your blog on winter of 78. If I recall the storm in January was a record setter on its own. Perhaps the most snow in 24 hr. Period ?? However once the Blizzard kicked in the January storm became a distant memory. One thing I remember is I think we got most of our snow in just 3 storms.

  9. TK,

    re: Winter of 78

    Yes we all talk about the big storm in late January prior to the Blizzard where
    Boston received something like 21 or 22 inches. HOWEVER, there was another potent storm prior to that one where there was a very tight SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN Gradient. At my house in JP we had about 6-7 inches accumulation but there
    was crap loads of sleet mixed in OR there was a prolonged period of plain sleet. Any sleet happened overnight so I am not sure which was which. All I can say is that
    stuff was mighty mighty HEAVY to shovel.

    I believe just North and West of the City there was over 20 inches of Snow and “just” South and East (Even bit SW Or SSW) of the city there was a major ICE storm and I mean it was close (All the way down to the Providence, RI area). I remember driving out to Dedham and Norwood and there was very little snow there and much evidence of ICE.

    I look forward to that interesting read and thank you ahead of time for taking the time to put that together.

  10. Not for nothing, but the winds not far above the surface appear to be cranking.
    Can see some low stratus zipping along a tremendous speeds.

  11. JP Dave , I recall a sleet storm ,which may be the one you speak of that we got4-6” of sleet. Never saw sleet accumalate like that. It was back in that era but don’t remembee it as 78.

    1. Where did you reside at the time? If I recall, this storm was
      about a week or so ahead of that big Jan event later in the month.

      The Sleet/snow line ran NE to SW right through or barley S of the City to
      a position NW of Providence, RI. The Freezing rain line went from somwhere
      North of Plymouth to Taunton to South of Providence. Something along
      those lines. Crap it was 40 years ago.

      btw, extremely difficult to accumulate 4-6 inches of sleet. Sleet accumulates at a ratio somewhere between 1:1 and about 2:1. So it would take 2-3 to 4-6 inches of rain to get 4-6 inches of sleet. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

      I’d would wager that there may have been a long period of straight sleet, but
      as I described above, likely for a decent amount of time there was
      a snow/sleet mix falling.

      Would like to hear TK’s thoughts on this.

  12. It may have been. I was just west of the city by 8-110 miles. My recollection was that it was plowable. If I recall we had some snow in the evening then overbite kicked back in to heavy sleet. Maybe not 6” but a SL of sleet. Like you said 40 yrs ago.

    1. For sure there was a lot of sleet and yes, even at my house clearly plowable.
      I can’t say how much was straight sleet and how much was straight snow
      and how much was a mix, suffice to say there was a crap load of SLEET. 😀

    3. Guess I was wrong! Just proves you still can’t predict weather. Was so sure with snow cover. In any case, congrats Vicki. It’s 59 degrees in Sudbury, drizzling with scattered fog patches. Feels really nice outside – took a walk.

        1. Thanks, rainshine. I didn’t predict 60 but then I don’t think that was the question. However, even if it were, I doubt I would have gone with that. It is 59 here as well.

    1. Thanks, TK. There was also one in January 1991. I recall plows then….in the same area that Kirbut is mentioning. It was the day of my mom’s visiting hours….Either January 9 or 10. I remember as we stood at Mt Auburn Cemetery the next day we had to hold umbrellas because huge chunks of ice were falling from the trees.

  21. TK ( or anyone else) have even an estimate on how big the storm (if it even happens) would be on Jan. 17 and 18? I have to drive my husband to Waltham both days re: cataract surgery. I can drive in some snow showers, maybe with a couple of inches. I know it’s a ways out – but what are the chances that this could be a storm with at least 6 inches or more? Thank you.

    1. If the Euro verified, it could be a lot of snow next Thursday but the other models aren’t on board so I wouldn’t be changing any plans. Just too early to say right now and we know the Euro has the tendency to overamplify these things.

  22. 12z Euro is almost identical to the 0z. Big coastal storm next Thursday with track just off the Cape. Would be well over a foot for the interior but as Dave said, that track verbatim would be mostly rain in Eastern MA.

    Important thing is that the potential for a big coastal storm is still there. Way too early to be talking about track specifics, which would determine p type.

    Now we just need the other models to come on line!

  24. Ok, for you map lovers out there, here you go. This Euro run has a MAJOR storm,
    as in BIG TIME STORM. MEGA SNOW inland with rain to snow with big backlash on the coast. To keep out tonight’s snow in Northern/Western areas, I show the following:

    Surface 1/17 and 1/18
    Snow for 1/17 and snow for 1/18

    Click on image to enlarge

    https://imgur.com/a/CcUiz

    Will we end up with a blend and have this be more of a benchmark system?
    This is what we call a WATCHER, no? Eh?

    1. Yes indeed. Would like to see the Euro, GFS, and CMC ensembles to see if there is any other support for a system like this. It sure is a great setup with that trough diving down and the second shortwave riding along the base of it but a lot needs to come together to deliver a big one for us!

  25. Well, here come the first waves of showers, to be followed later on by waves of tropical torrents.

    I have to wonder about rivers like the Taunton and Concord rivers or most any smaller streams in southern New England.

    Unlike the snow, which has vanished in a blink, we know that water cools and moderates at a much slower rate and thus, I have to assume that ice on these smaller types of streams and rivers must be quite thick.

    Add 2 inches of rain in the next 8 hours, increasing the flow and it wont take much breaking of ice to jam around a corner or a rocky area within the stream/river.

    I’d imagine southernmost New England doesn’t have a lot of experience with ice jam flooding, but I can tell you from my years in far northern VT, that water building behind an ice jam can amass quickly and cause quite a problem.

    1. Not sure I have ever seen or heard of a really bad Ice Jam around these parts.
      I would imagine this time around, we could see something on the Charles, Concord or Merrimack. Time will tell.

  28. Thanks TK, love the idea to look back at 1978!

    Sure is a different air mass than a week ago, eh? Near record warm territory (as we were a year ago today). Drove through a couple torrents of rain recently. Stuff in eastern MA doesn’t look like much on radar, but there are some very heavy pockets embedded. Warm season dynamics at work here. 18z HRRR is robust on rain, 2-3″+ for many in our region.

  29. Next week… we don’t know any more today than we did yesterday. Models are totally lost, no consistency. Have to get this system out of here first. Despite the 12z Euro, I’m actually not quite as enthused about today’s trends in terms of getting snow in here. IMO, that potential mid-late week system is more likely to develop further east and probably offshore given the positive tilt of the trough. Euro sharpens it too quickly. I was more hopeful for the initial northern stream clipper to dig a little more and redevelop further south and more organized earlier in the week. That could still happen too.

    We’ll see though, long way to go and it remains a favorable setup overall. For now, keeping most of my focus on this storm.

  30. Logan hit 60F, one degree shy of the record 61F.

    Temps have “cooled” down now to 57F with rain assuming there is no more room to rise back again.

  32. It could get pretty interesting for a little while early tomorrow morning right before the front comes through. Temperatures should climb back up into the low 60s. A few hundred joules of elevated CAPE combined with these wind profiles. Could see a pretty solid line of convection especially if the low center goes a bit further west like the NAM is showing. Plenty of downpours between now and then as well, but the 5-8AM period strikes me as a potential wildcard.

    1. In terms of what? Wind gusts? Down pours? Thunder and Lightning?
      Tornado?

      I am not being facetious. You said interesting and mentioned CAPE, so I assume you mean possible thunder storms, but you did leave it a bit vague.

      Thanks

      1. Possibly some stronger thunderstorms with some locally strong winds if some of the LLJ is mixed down. Certainly torrential rain as well.

  34. Is there any wind advisory up for down here because it’s cranking. Part of 139 in Marshfield was just closed off due to downed wires .

      1. By the car wash past the high school . It’s been resolved . The wind is just really blowing .

      1. Yikes. With the wet ground, that doesn’t sound good. At least it is warmer……for now. Be safe down there

  38. So, what will the 0Z runs show for next week. So far, I am NOT impressed with the GFS.

    Shows a wimpy clipper going over us with the follow-up system so far off shore it might
    hit Bermuda.

  39. Of course, we are heading out to dinner very shortly as the deluge descends upon us.
    Would it ever be any other way? NOPE!

    1. What many times happens to me is that when it pours on my way home, 5 minutes after I come in, it STOPS! 🙂

  40. The ingredients available for the evolution of a major storm will be on the table next week.

    Question is, how many of them interact, and where? There is a whole lot of potential there but it is going to be in many pieces.

    1. I feel we go into a boring weather pattern after this weekend , purely a hunch that could be wrong.

  41. While we `bask’ in warmth on the cold side of this storm, several hundred miles to our northwest a major winter storm is unfolding, with 10 to 14 inches of snow expected from Watertown, NY to Lake Placid:

    ..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
    SATURDAY…

    * WHAT…Rain changing to freezing rain and sleet late this
    afternoon and evening, then heavy snow expected Friday night
    through Saturday. Travel will be very difficult to impossible,
    with very slippery travel conditions for the evening commute
    today as water quickly freezes on untreated surfaces. Total snow
    accumulations of 7 to 14 inches and ice accumulations of one
    tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected.

    * WHERE…The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

    * WHEN…From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will
    cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

  43. Someone mentioned heading to Jay’s Peak this weekend. Even there 4-8 inches of snow are expected once the changeover occurs. My guess is we’ll see similar amounts throughout the northern and high peaks of Vermont, NH, and Maine. The Laurentians should also do well. Environment Canada is reporting for Quebec City the following:

    Drastic changes in temperature, freezing precipitation and snow expected over the next 24 hours

    Rain will change to freezing rain this evening, and then to ice pellets and snow overnight with the passage of a cold front. Icy conditions are expected this evening as temperatures drop sharply.

    The snow combined with brisk northwesterly winds will reduce visibilities in local blowing snow. In general, total snowfall amounts between 15 and 30 centimetres are expected.

    1. Joshua, we are on the way up to Jay Peak now. Stopped in Brattleboro for dinner. Dense fog here and temps in the 50’s. It was in the low 60’s driving thru Springfield and we literally had the air conditioning on in the car!

      Looking forward to the near blizzard conditions at Jay tomorrow. Temps are forecast to be near zero there by late PM!

  45. I understand why ……..

    But, for the general public …

    It has to be confusing to log onto the Boston nws page.

    In 12 hrs, the map has gone from showing a flash flood watch to a winter weather advisory and now back to a flood warning.

    There just has to be a better way to present rapidly changing advisories/warnings.

    1. Definitely agree.

      HRRR looking like a squall line coming through between 5-8 tomorrow morning like WxWatcher was alluding to.

    2. I for one rather not see anymore change. Everyone knows how I hate their new system for advisories and warnings of What where, when additional info , BS. Want to know WHY! because they forget WHY they are posting it.
      My dad for one who use to like and go on Noaa and read the warnings and watches and understand why they are being issued with the discussion.

      the NWS page is rather simple to many pages. It should not be to hard for people to go on the page, look on the map and say oh pretty colors, I wonder what they mean click on the state, see that their town is under a warning, adivisory or more by clicking on their town/putting zip code or name of town in the search box they put on their and seeing right on the top what advisories and warnings there are.

      We need to stop making things easier, and make it more informational. Not less. I understand this country loves its short catchy phrases but come on.

  47. Howling out there, alot of snow melted but still have 100% cover, besides for where my brothers , my friend and myself had a snowball fight yesterday. I guess my X-MAS present came in handy. 🙂

  48. FWIW, multiple tornado warnings issued in Virginia right now along a line associated with the front, near the low center itself. That’s the same line I was speaking about earlier coming through here tomorrow morning. The bulk of it may stay to our south, but you can understand my concern should it come far enough north. We’d be hard pressed to extend even the low end the tornado threat up here, but at least a conditional straight line wind threat should that line clip us. 2/25/17 comes to mind, though this is not nearly as widespread an outbreak.

  49. Pete said reports of ice dam flooding in northern New England.

    58 and .78 here.

    We lost at least a solid seven inch snow cover today.

    1. There was a bunch of Ice on the Shawsheen River as well as its a rather slow moving river. I am lucky that I live on a Marshy portion of the river. Can only imagine what they are gonna be dealing with down stream.

  51. Lousy ride up I-91 from Brattleboro to St Johnsbury VT tonight. Dense fog most of the way to north of White River Jct, then the fog improved but we hit torrential downpours and high winds. 54 when we left Brattleboro and 34 when we arrived in St Johnsbury. Still heavy rain here but should start freezing soon.

    When we arrived at the hotel, the ENTIRE parking lot was filled with utility trucks and Asplundh tree removal trucks. Guess they are being precautious with ice in the forecast but looks like it should be a quick changeover. It has already flipped to snow in Burlington.

    Heading the rest of the way up to Jay in the AM and will report from there. Expecting a slow drive in what should be by then a raging snowstorm!

  52. 0z Euro maintains the coastal storm threat for Wed-Thurs. Track is further east than the 12z run and a bit weaker but still a significant snow for much of the interior.

  54. All windows are open this morning while we can. Get some fresh air in the house in January is always a treat.

    Finally no snow, now I can finish picking up the leafs.

  55. “60s in January? That never happens!” WRONG

    “The temperature never drops from the 60s to the teens! That’s CRAZY. That’s messed up!” WRONG

    It happened twice in one month in January 1978, and other times too. 🙂

    Updating…

      1. They both were events somewhat similar to this one.

        January 9 & 26 except the January 26 system was a powerhouse low pressure area that gave the Midwest its own “Blizzard of ’78”. To say that month was dynamic and wild would be an understatement.

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