Saturday Forecast

165 Comments

8:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)
After yesterday’s wordy post here is a short one to start your weekend. This is just a quick update starting with the good news. The precipitation moved out of here so fast and very little remains (only spotty very light) and wind is still pretty strong and gusty, that the region will not have an issue with freezing rain, sleet, or snow, and the ground will at least partially dry out before the rapid temperature drop. At dawn the temperature was in the lower 60s in southeastern MA and the middle 20s near the MA/NY border. Think there’s a front in there somewhere? There sure is and it will charge eastward and put a rapid end to the spring party across southern New England. Temperatures drop like a rock today and the arctic air then takes over for the remainder of the weekend, though not to the extreme level of last week at this time. Will still watch for a few snow showers Cape Cod Sunday and a larger area from southeastern NH to RI on Monday. Also will continue to monitor for the risk of a storm system bringing snow/mix to the region Tuesday-Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with isolated very light rain showers morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Temperatures falling from the 50s to the 20s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts midday and afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny except Variably cloudy with episodic snow showers Cape Cod with minor accumulation possible. Highs 19-26. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts across Cape Cod.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers coastal NH, eastern MA, and RI. Lows from the lower to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow late day or night. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow except possible mix southeastern areas. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)
Clearing early in the period then a period of fair weather followed by a risk of more unsettled weather by the end of the period. Temperatures moderating to near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)
Expecting somewhat milder weather overall with a precipitation threat early in the period then a drying trend.

165 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. I think the Euro had an enema and shit itself. Well it certainly backed off some
    from a big storm next week. Still has an event, but not nearly as powerful.
    I guess we’ll get a better idea starting with the 0z runs now that this current
    system is out of here.

    The euro still introduces RAIN in Eastern sections with some backlash snows.
    About 3 inches for Boston Near a foot out by and North of Worcester.

    Waiting on 12Z runs.

    Euro even has Ocean snows for Monday, very little but shows it.

  3. Thanks TK !

    I think the cold front is ‘visible’ on radar as a thin line of showers in the central part of the region.

  5. Thanks TK!

    I notice that Barry has a more Wed.-Thurs. timeframe for the next system as well as rain SE. He didn’t say whether it includes Boston though. Hope not.

    Since Barry hugs the Euro, I am under the impression via NWS am Discussion that the Euro brings lots of snow, if anything, compared to the other models. Perhaps I misinterpreted it?

    1. Euro snow for Boston:

      Monday: 0.2 inch
      Tuesday: 0.0
      Wednesday: 0.2 inch 0.23 inch RAIN
      Thursday: 2.7 inch

      There’s the big fat Euro. Even if all snow, NOT a big event in any way shape
      or form.

      We’ll see what the next runs show.

  9. Thanks TK. I don’t think I’ve ever seen so much snow disappear so quickly as in the past couple days. This warmth has been equally impressive to the cold of earlier in the month, though not nearly as long in duration. Waiting on the colder air now…

    As I was starting to suspect yesterday, I’m a little more inclined today to say that we may make nothing (or close to it) out of something next week. I like what the GFS is doing. It’s a great synoptic pattern, but is looking more to me like a time when the smaller scale interactions won’t line up for a big storm impacting us. It’s the kind of pattern you have to watch until the last minute though. More adjustments certainly possible as we’re several days away.

    Beyond then… As it has appeared for a couple weeks now, the last 10 days of this month look poised for above normal temps and below normal precip and snow. A more classic January thaw, not as warm in general as the past couple days, but more consistent in their mildness. A very La Nina look.

    1. If I’m correctly visualizing the beyond 10 day pattern …. the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys may be susceptible to severe weather, snows fall from Detroit to Milwaukee/Minneapolis and we get occasional shower events on passing cold fronts. Post cold front it’s chilly for a few days, followed by warmups … ????

      1. That’s what I’m seeing. Storm track shifts well to our west along the periphery of the SE Ridge.

  11. Looks like the Pemi river in Plymouth, NH went into flood stage last night, and actually got close to moderate flooding. Funny, as I was discussing with some friends, how we never had any issues my freshman and sophomore years up there, but the past two years it seems we get a flood every couple of months. They’ll be cleaning up yet again.

  13. I agree with WxW. I don’t recall seeing that much snow disappear as quickly. We have remnants ov what was 6-10 foot piles but even those are significantly lower

  14. I get the impression that whatever snow we get next week will be the last for awhile, if not the rest of the month itself?

  17. Not for Nothing, but the NAM continues to advertise MORE than just snow showers
    on the 15th. Beginning to look like an OCEAN EFFECT EVENT. Stay tuned.

    1. Areas South East of Boston would be in the jackpot area. Areas Like Pembroke, Hanson, Taunton, Bridegwater, Brockton and the like. Could be 3 or 4 inches
      there or perhaps a tad more.

  19. I was hoping that the front would at least pass through dry but that appears not to be the case. A north-south squall of showers approaching Boston from the west. Now in Framingham if radar is correct.

      1. If looking at the models, the 32 degree line lags well behind the
        actual front so one could get the impression the front would
        be later, but alas, not so.

  33. What a difference a day makes. Thankfully the wind has dried the pavement where I am so the threat of a flash freeze has gone down.

  34. Hour and a half 15 degree temp drop. And I suspect I am incorrect re it passing without fanfare. I may have been in shower. Things in yard have moved considerably since I looked earlier.

  35. I am wondering if anyone on here has any work with animal shelters/breeders for kittens. I would like to know the rules involved as well as they have seemed to have changed since I got Simba, who passed away last year.

    1. Matt, a photographer and friend in Sutton works with Willys kittens in Millbury. She posts photos of kitties for adoption each week. I’ll send info on FB

      1. Speaking of pet adoption, is Pet Parade still on WBZ TV Sunday mornings? Since I started working weekends I lost track.

        Just curious more than anything else. It hasn’t been the same w/o Kerry anyway.

  36. Philip, I expected from somewhere around 10AM ish or so and that is pretty
    much what we got.

    Temp 46 at Logan and 45 here in JP now.

  37. NOT only is the snow on the ground GONE, but the snow banks are GONE as well.
    The only remnants, are HUGH snow piles for shoveling that were higher than the
    snow banks and even they are almost gone. Amazing disappearing act!

  41. I have a friend flying out from Massachusetts to Hong Kong at about 2am Wednesday – she’s all good right? I looked at the forecast models and nothing jumped out at me.

      1. I am now wondering if this recent storm was so big that it caused the atmosphere to literally go POOF for awhile?

        1. Don’t think so. I just think that all of the ingredients
          are NOT coming together at the correct times.
          I think WxWatcher indicated that above and due to
          the model divergence we were experiencing, a good signal
          that it might not come together. I suppose at the last minute it could get its act together. We shall see.

          Waiting on CMC and then of course the KING, Euro.

  46. The snow from the January 20 1978 storm (and there was more of it) disappeared in 1 day (January 26). This was close but not as quick. It took 2 days. Today’s temperature drop is impressive but maybe just shy of the magnitude of the one that took place late in the day on 1-26-1978.

  47. WxW … We will finally see the more classic La Nina set-up. Was waiting for around January 20. We need to get by one more cold outbreak of less magnitude than the last one. From here on things get “easier”. The front loaded winter is heading down the home stretch and the back half is going to be a different pattern. The next question will be when do we transition from La Nina to ENSO neutral? Implications for spring and summer long range forecast lie with this question / answer.

  49. I’m totally fine if the midweek system is not a big producer ’round here. Nate & I have to take down the outside decorations still. I’d have done it over the few mild hours we had this morning but I had to take a round trip to Logan airport and back with 2 kittens that just flew in from North Carolina. 🙂 They are my friend’s though essentially mine too.

    Anyway eyeing Saturday January 20 for the outside stuff…

    2. I did that a few days ago. Will be hoping your wrong about the bad weather pattern. I want some good snow chances so the snow stays.

      2. If it says please share with everyone on FB, it seems to make it legitimate. Although, I think everyone can share things that they later find are not true. This one is a no brainer

  52. Well the cold hiccuped for a bit, but the downward trend now continues.

    Down to 41 which represents a drop of 18 degrees in about 1 1/2 hours.

  53. TK,

    You thoughts on Monday Ocean Effect snows.

    Do you think it “could” be more than snow showers?
    NAM seems to think so, not so much with the global models.

    1. NWS seems to be down playing this situation:

      Strong subsidence is
      implied in soundings, which suggests mainly dry conditions. H85
      temps are warmer under this inversion than temps below. With NNW
      flow gradually shifting toward the NNE, the delta-T values from
      SST to H85 hovers around 15C, while to H9, it is closer to 20C.
      Therefore, although shallow will likely see light (given only
      moisture is at the top of the mixed layer) snow showers across
      mainly the outer portions of Cape Cod and possibly Plymouth
      county Sun night into Mon as the winds take on a slight E
      component. Accums should will remain light.

  56. Just got back from store, perfectly sunny, streets are dry, and town is out putting salt down… don’t get it

    2. Because they listened to the HYPE about a dangerous FLASH FREEZE
      that AIN’T HAPPENING. Streets are DRY. The only place we get ice
      are any puddles that remain on the sides of roads and parking lots. Otherwise
      it’s FINE. AND those are evaporating quickly in this dry WINDY air.

  59. Controversial article in the Wall Street Journal on climate change. It is written by two climate change skeptics. I am not in any way supporting their views. Yet, I do think it is important to be as well-informed as possible on such matters. I also think that one of their points – weather is not the same thing as climate – is a vital one to present to a lay audience.

    Unfortunately, it is hard to get free WSJ articles online. If you are interested, it is in today’s Review section (always a must read section for intellectually curious people), and it is entitled: “Bad weather is no reason for climate alarm.” It is by Benny Peiser and Matt Ridley.

      1. Thanks, Matt. I’m not an expert, but when I read the article I had the sense that it was somewhat misleading. Still think it’s important to read.

        1. its what I mean by the way of needing scientists to be the ones who write about this stuff, not news reporters/news stations. They love to cherry pick for ratings.

  62. The voice of college football (and what a voice it was – smooth, resonant, wonderful Georgian accent) has died. Keith Jackson epitomized old school announcing. May he rest in peace.

  64. The Mansfield (MA) Historical Society will present a 40th anniversary retrospective of the Blizzard of ’78 on Saturday, February 3 at 1 pm at the Mansfield Public Library, 255 Hope St.

    1. I’m going to the one on Feb 3 in Milton that Barry, Harvey, & Dr. Louis Ucellini will be speaking at. 🙂

  65. Ok, it is now nearly 4 hours since FROPA and it is 34, not even freezing yet.
    Meanwhile 4 hours of dry air being blown by a hearty wind spells the biggest joke
    of a flash freeze I have ever seen.

  66. Once again, the EURO NOT IMPRESSIVE for next week. A few inches for Boston is all.
    The more potent follow-up system remains WELL OFF SHORE. blah blah blah blah….

      1. close to the coast, won’t see much Boston points north and west in terms of accumulation, I do not consider an event just for the south coast an event, I think of it as wasted snow.

          1. snow in southeast Massachusetts. No snow in Boston to cancel classes or snow to cover the disgusting brown ground here in billerica nor is it good for ski areas.

          2. It’s just a personal preference, like as in you don’t think there is anything such as “useful snow” (even though it’s actually an important part of the agricultural cycle). 🙂

              1. One of the things I always have to watch for as an agricultural forecaster is snowcover for protection of winter crops. When there is no snow and a major cold snap crop damage is inevitable, so this would have a significant impact on supply and pricing. That impacts investors and impacts all of us as consumers.

  71. Well it is obvious that my assessment of the temperature situation going into the warm up was quite in error and the warmth was stronger than I had forecast.

    Cold front was impressive, as expected, with the rapid temp fall followed by the more gradual one as arctic air returns post-tropical air. As I stated elsewhere this event reminded me of the ones that we experienced on January 9 and January 26 1978. But I still think the temperature crashes were more impressive in both of the 1978 events.

    Coming up? Cold Sunday and most of next week – below normal temps. Does it snow? Ocean effect snow showers Cape Cod Sunday and maybe a little more widespread eastern areas Monday. Snow threat late Tuesday and Wednesday. Don’t just follow the models and dismiss it. A light to moderate event is possible. A major event is more remotely possible.

    Warm up next weekend? Yes but probably not as impressive as the one we just had. Also, that’s not an immediate change to the new pattern. There will still be hiccups a.k.a. cold shots. They will just become more short-lived with time.

    1. These games to me are just as fun as high-offensive output games. Strategy, who makes the least mistakes, and who might make the big play at the last moment.

    1. It was a good game! Too many people think every game has to be smash it up offense every drive. Nope.

      Well, time for the bigger game of the day. Go Pats!

      1. It would be one thing if the defenses were dominant, but it was just bad offensive football all around

  75. They’ll win. But it’s like I’ve said for a few weeks. They’re not playing good, consistent football; and haven’t for 5-6 games.

    1. Well if they get to the AFC Championship and potentially the super bowl playing so-so, inconsistent football, I’ll take it. If so-so, inconsistent football is what tonight’s game looked like, I liked it! Keep it up Pats I say! 🙂

  78. First quarter was sluggish, but since then, this is about the most one sided playoff game I’ve seen. Total talent disparity. Onto the next one.

    1. Yea, that first Q was not good. But after that….domination. Defense has really been good tonight. Best overall game in awhile. Maybe all season.

  79. Ground is awfully soft and mixed with wind not good

    One of guys who works for my SIL was just coming home from a call and had a tree fall on his van…somewhere out this way. Be safe if out.

      1. No idea as it just happened. I know they have shallow root systems. It came down right onto the drivers side roof. He is very lucky.

  80. Now that was a dominant patriots game. If the patriots defense can play like that, the pats can go all the way.

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