Sunday Forecast

2:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)
An air mass of arctic origin has arrived, but this air mass is not as brutally cold as the one that was over the region one week ago. Nevertheless, it will be running colder than average for the next several days. The orientation of high pressure will cause a north wind with just enough moisture for a few snow showers around Cape Ann and Cape Cod today and then a northeast wind and a little more moisture for a better risk of ocean-effect snow showers in eastern MA and nearby coastal NH and parts of RI during MLK Jr Day Monday, which may result in some minor snow accumulation mainly on the South Shore of MA. Next, a low pressure area moving through the Great Lakes toward New England will redevelop just south of New England late Tuesday into Wednesday and will bring the threat of a light to moderate snowfall to the area. It’s rather early to know exact details but the track of that system would be more likely to bring the most snowfall to southeastern MA and RI. It appears it would move along quickly enough to allow fair weather to return by Thursday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny except partly cloudy with isolated snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 18-26, coldest interior hills, least cold Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy Cape Ann and Cape Cod with scattered snow showers. Lows 5-12 except 12-18 Cape Cod. Wind light N to NE.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous snow showers Cape Cod to South Shore of MA with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches possible. Scattered to isolated snow showers remainder of eastern MA, RI, and NH Seacoast region with with scattered dustings. Highs 20-28. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early, favoring Cape Cod. Lows 12-20. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Highs 20-28. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely morning, ending afternoon. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the middle to upper 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)
High pressure will dominate with dry weather and moderating temperatures during the January 19-21 period followed by unsettled weather then a turn to colder weather at the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)
Most likely a dry/cold beginning to the period, moderating temperatures and unsettled weather mid period then drier again by late. Timing uncertain and confidence low for this period.

199 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. In Ft Myers ??

      I see it’s 42F this morning, that’s downright arctic down there.

      The afternoon sun should be nice and warm to be in ….

  1. According to Barry, a widespread plowable 3-6″ for late Tuesday into Wednesday.

    I have always wondered what the true definition of “plowable” is. I don’t recall the old time mets like Don Kent, Bob Copeland etc. using that term with regard to snow amounts.

    1. Straight from the Euro. 😀

      You are correct. Those old time mets often used the term “plowable”.
      I my mind I would always think something like 4-6 inches, but clearly
      depending on ratio 2 inches may need to be plowed. 2 inches of fluff could
      easily be handles by salting. 2 inches of cement may require plowing.
      It all depends.

  2. Thick cloud deck on the eastern horizon just before sunrise with the crescent moon just above. Ocean effect snows tomorrow?

      1. I’m not sure which would be best for Pats.

        Both teams have one excellent unit, (Pitt : offense, Jax : defense), but the other unit is not impressive.

        1. I’m not sure either. I think I would lean towards Pittsburg as the Pats are most familiar with them.

          Either way they should be able to manage a win, although it won’t be nearly as easy as last night.

          1. If Jax has the better defense, then Pittsburgh is the most likely to beat. We wouldn’t want Brady and Gronk to have problems scoring. Our defense can still give up big plays at times.

    1. when my daughter was quite young and competing at horse shows, some of the kids were happy when a tough competitor had a bad round so didn’t move forward in the competition. They knew they wouldn’t have to compete against her so their chances of winning increased. Daughters trainer explained that to really feel as if you won, you should want to compete against the best. I thought it was an incredible life lesson.

    1. Nice NWS discussion re: Ocean Effect Snow tomorrow

      The main focus on Monday will turn to the mesoscale and potential
      for a few inches of localized snow accums. Given the strong high
      shifting into eastern Canada an easterly 925 mb LLJ of 20 to 25
      knots will develop. Meanwhile…a mesoscale coastal front will
      setup probably near the Plymouth county coast. Surface temps might
      be in the upper teens and lower 20s to the northwest of the coastal
      front…while portions of the Cape/ACK will likely see temps rise
      above freezing. This seems to be a very good setup for ocean effect
      snow showers with 925T between -8c and -12C along with added
      enhancement along the coastal front and help from the land/sea
      interface. While a coating to 1 inch of snow will be possible
      across eastern MA and even into portions of RI…the main focus will
      likely run from Boston/s south shore and into Plymouth county along
      the coastal front. Cape Ann may also be impacted by this mesoscale
      snow as well. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are certainly
      possible in this region with the low risk of very isolated 4-5 inch
      amounts. This could potentially impact both the Monday morning and
      afternoon commutes…especially on the highly traveled Route 3
      connecting Boston to the south shore. While we are not confident
      enough in amounts to issue a winter weather advisory at this
      time…will go ahead and issue a special weather statement to
      highlight this potential.

  3. Don’t sleep on the ocean effect potential Monday. Mesoscale models are near unanimous in showing a small bullseye just south of Boston. I could see a small jackpot of 2-4” with near nothing a few miles away.

    Not very enthused about Tuesday night into Wednesday at this time. Weak, small system. I don’t see more than 1-3” from that at this time, but still some adjustment time for that.

    1. There will be places that get more from Monday’s ocean-effect event than they get from the midweek system.

    2. South Weymouth often gets into that Bulls-Eye.
      Looks like they will again.

      So you are poo pooing the almighty Euro????

      1. The same Euro that just a couple days ago showed an interior snow bomb for the middle of this week? 😉

        GFS seems to have a better handle on the pattern right now.

            1. Is it? Looks about the same as the 6z run to me, maybe a tad lower on snow amounts. Fits the 1-3″ idea.

              1. Yeah, so I see. I still say it ends
                up being more than 1-3. We shall see. Now watch the Euro Back off. 😀

    1. It’s probably very weather-related. A cold snap and rapid temperature change is likely what lead to the final failure and rupture of the tank.

    1. I’ve been saying how much this month reminds me of 1978’s January. I’ll probably write my blog on that next weekend to coincide with the January 20 storm anniversary.

  4. Any snow threats to coincide with the anniversary? I suppose with our luck we will have 60+ temps that week. 😉

    At the same time I am not sure I want any serious snow event to overshadow it either.

  5. Good morning, everyone, and thanks, TK…
    Looking forward to your recollection and memories of the Blizzard of 1978.

    I went and found all of my saved Boston Globes, local papers, photos and weather charts from 40 years ago yesterday. Enjoyed looking through them.

    There was a massive ice storm 40 years ago today that “kicked off” the parade of events. Most of Mansfield, Mass was left without power for about 24 hours.

    I looked up the temperature ranges for Boston for mid-January, 1919 right before the Great Molasses Explosion. There was a sharp warm-up before the tragic day:
    1-10-19: 34/8
    1-11: 36/4
    1-12: 24/2
    1-13: 40/16
    1-14: 46/35
    1-15: 43/29

  6. Great dominant performance by the patriots. If they play like that, especially the defense, the pats can go all the way. I am worried about all of these coordinators possibly leaving when the season is over. I feel like any hiring and interviews should not happen until a few days after the super bowl or teams can not talk to people that are in the playoffs. I am wondering what will happen next year and who will be the coordinators.

  7. Pats in my opinion will be better going against Pitt . Jacksonville has a big guy that will pose lots of problems going against Gronk enough to make him a non factor during the games. Both teams want the pats really bad.

    1. I am not entirely sure, steelers we know can play the Pats good this year. the Jags do not have the offense to keep up with the Patriots especially if they play like they did last night. If the patriots defense can play well, and Bortles is no Big Ben or Brady and limit him to 14 points or less, the patriots win. Jags defense is good but won’t keep the pats out of the endzone.

  8. Company Van the man who works with my SIL was in last night when a tree fell on it. He was on his way home from a work call. Police officer who first responded said he was lucky to be alive. Thankfully, no inury, but he is sore.

    https://i.imgur.com/IG8xjxP.jpg

      1. Thanks, JPD. I am not sure where he was but I suspect close to Town where your daughter lives. He lives there and was on his way home.

  9. The expected snow showers are happening on the “capes” this midday.

    More widespread tomorrow.

    1. I think that’s a good sign for a more robust event tomorrow. Would not shock me if someone sees 4-5” of powder if we get a stationary band.

        1. Reminiscent of an event I recall from way back
          in the late 60s, perhaps early 70s.

          Cold high slipping to the NE with and Off shore
          system to the SE. Brought wide spread 4-8 inch ocean
          effect snow.

          Not saying that will happen tomorrow, just curious to
          see how it shakes out.

    1. You can say what you want but I really , really don’t think the pats want to face the Jags. Not a good matchup .

      1. I’d be really surprised if pats were nervous about a team…that said….If the pats cannot beat any team then they are not the best team.

        1. Yes I get That but they will need to figure out Gronk you’ll see. Playing the Jags has to be 60 minutes of 0 mistake football . Jacksonville is a very , very good club . I’m not of course I’m not saying the pats can’t be them it’s just a tougher opponent.

          1. They got no pass offense. Play the run and make Bortles beat you through the air.
            Won’t happen.

          2. I know all the ins and outs so there isn’t much for me to see. And I’m betting BB sees it a lot more clearly than anyone else. I, perhaps for one, want to see them play the toughest opponent out there.

            1. that will come in the SB. Both the Steelers and Jags are beating each other up right now, and the Patriots are actually getting healthy.

              1. Of course I also dislike playoffs. I’d rather two divisions with the best team of each throughout the season playing in SB…..and I detest the wildcard. Same way I feel about standardized tests

    1. Holy Crap Batman. .89 qpf from Ocean effect. With the expected ration, that
      could translate to 15-20 inches or so. Worse case 10-15.

      Now that would be an ocean effect event.

      1. I can’t really tell which towns are effects by that map. We have had several al snow flakes fall hear throughout the afternoon

            1. Growing up in east Braintree , these ocean effect bands have a sharp cut off to them. I remember one event where we had 3” at the shipyard and nothing half way down Wollaston beach. Quincy typical does not do well with these events.

  10. Steelers will come back here. They’re the better team overall. They dug themselves s hole they may not get out of because of turnovers but I’m guessing they make it close or even win.

    1. Indeed. Antonio Brown is a truly awesome wide receiver. Best in the business, in my opinion. This said, Tomlin and the Steelers’ coaching staff have made several questionable decisions. And the Steelers’ defense is really suspect.

  11. Jags. Yup.
    Easier matchup for the pats. One dimensional offense. Their defense is pretty good, but the pats have too many ways to score and move the ball.

  12. Typical oe snow belt is usually from Weymouth to Plymouth to Brockton. So the map that was posted by the nws is a bit confusing to me.

  13. Steelers would’ve been a more fun matchup. Jags will put up a fight, but the Pats should win easy enough. Today’s game proved the Jags defense is overrated, and they just happened to have their best game of the year on offense. They won’t repeat that.

    1. I disagree it will not be as easy as that I’m telling you . I’m not saying who will win or loose but classic dog fight coming . The matchup for Gronk will not be good as there defender is much bigger than Gronk .

      1. I agree.

        I actually do not like the matchup, especially after watching
        a chunk of the game. The Jags looked pretty good to me
        and Bortles made a lot of good throws.

  14. Tomlin’s play-calling or that of his offensive coordinator led to this loss. 4th and less than a yard you do not throw a low percentage pass 20 yards down field. KC did this last week, too. Really dumb. It’s often not about talent in the NFL. Rather, coaching and playing smart win close games.

  15. Jaguars will be lucky to score 14 points next week in Foxboro, and I’d be shocked if the Patriots scored less than 30. My prediction: 34-13 Patriots.

    1. No way Joshua I don’t see that . Do you follow Jags ??? Oh well next week I obviously would love that score though .

      1. Go look at who they played. AFC south is a real power house. They were 1-3 against the NFC West, and beat the Seahawks by 6.
        They did go 4-0 against the AFC north, so I’ll give you Baltimore and Pitt. My sons flag football team could beat the Browns and Bengals.
        The lost to the Jets.

      2. Agree with Josh, Matt and Blackstone here. Jags defense didn’t look all that great today. The Jags were 7-3 in there first 10 games and gave up an average of 15.8 pts per game against teams that had an overall record of 54-90. During their last 6 games they went 3-3 and gave up 110 pts an average of 18.3 pts per game against teams that had an overall record of 51-45. They are an uneven team.

        1. What you say is true, but they are exactly the type of team
          that could cause problems for the Pats. Look, I hope the Pats blow them off the field.

          Can’t wait to watch that one.

  16. Jacksonville is much better positioned to beat the Pats. They are better coached and manage the game better than Pittsburgh. Tom Coughlin is the president of football operations for the Jags. This is his team. He is the only one whose teams have beaten ours in the Super Bowl. He did it twice, as we all know.

    1. PLEASE NOTE: Because of the possibility of a more widespread
      snowfall Tue into Wed (See Long Term below), our snowfall maps
      on the web (including probabilities) will focus on that since
      it potentially will affect more of SNE. We will post the
      expected snowfall map for late tonight into Monday evening on
      social media.

      1. Ah, thanks Dave. Hadn’t read the discussion yet. Don’t like that they can’t post tomorrow’s on the web site though.

    2. Odd, because they had one up earlier that I thought was actually pretty good. That map, on the other hand, I do not agree with for midweek. Too high just about everywhere.

    3. They said in their discussion this afternoon since it will be a much smaller area they will do that one on social media.

  17. Jags defense is overrated. One dimensional offense. Anything can happen as we all know, but no way, no way, the Jags are a tougher game than the Steelers would have been.
    Pats 34-17.

      1. I’m with you, JPD

        Phenomenal running back, QB still young so TBD, defense is great.

        It’ll shoild be a good game. As we know from our own team…..there is no given for any team.

    1. I honestly like this match up. I do not believe it was going to be easier one way or another. . Steelers have an overall good Offense which can exploit the patriots Defense and keep up with the patriots offense. Would be a close game but a shootout. The Jags does not have as good as an offense, and the patriots defense can match up against them. The Patriots offense will struggle at times against the Jags defense but I feel the pats defense can hold the Jags offense. Remember who has the number 1 scoring defense. Not saying its going to be easy, nor am I saying the patriots or Jags are going to win. I say 21-17. There will be a safety some where and lots of field goals.

  18. One more football post from me.
    Pats played 6 of the 11 teams in the payoffs and were 5-2 (beat the Bills twice)

    Last time they played the Jags in 2015 they won 52-17.

    On to the weather. 🙂

    1. Yes on to weather we have two events to watch but the Tuesday/ Wednesday one covers more ground . South shore event tomorrow 2-4

      1. Re: Tomorrow

        Guidance is all over the place. We shall see.
        You could be in on the action down your way, while Boston
        will mostly lose out. It has to be just right for Boston to
        get in on it.

        We shall see.

            1. So you are totally dismissing the 3KM NAM? Curious.

              I’ll bet Boston sees at least 1 inch if not more.

              1. Haven’t looked at anything old salty I’m actually going by what wankum is thinking at this time . I know you are not a fan of his .

              2. This from NWS

                For Boston itself, it`s a tough call as city will be on edge of
                better activity to south and tends not to be favored with
                020-030 low level winds (we would like to see more NE winds of at
                least 040-050) so we are thinking an inch or two of
                accumulation right now.

        1. Boston I suspect is not in at all . Tuesday/ Wednesday looking like a moderate event at this time . Wankum has tentatively 3-6

  19. As of right now…

    I like 1-3 inches across the city of Boston from N to S tomorrow, as well as the immediate North Shore through Cape Ann, under 1 inch NH Seacoast southwestward along the 128 belt (excluding Cape Ann), then 2-5 across the entirety of southeastern MA except there will be a band somewhere in there that may go 5+. When you head southwestward toward RI it drops off to under 1 inch again.

    For Tue night & Wed I’ll venture a guess of coating-2 inches southeast of the Plymouth to New Bedford line and 2-4 elsewhere except dropping to under 2 further away from the more solid snow area in north central MA and southwestern NH. This event is right inside my border of #’s (48-60 hours) so this is a rough 1st guess.

    1. Tk everything I’m hearing it’s a south shore / cape event for tomorrow and that’s where the WWA is up for . 1-3 for Boston ???

  20. Similar to lake effect snow, it’s very difficult to pinpoint the hotspots for ocean effect snow. In general I agree with TK. Boston will not be in the highest zone, but I think 1-3 is reasonable. 2-4 for most on the South Shore, but localized 5-6” amounts possible. Snow should be mostly or entirely confined inside I95, just flurries outside there. I think 5” will be about the limit, maybe 6” if a band really stalls out for 2-3 hours. High ratios.

    Still not at all impressed by Tuesday night-Wednesday. 1-3 for most places would be my early call for that, but will wait until tomorrow for more detail.

    1. Agree on tomorrow. Not sure I agree with 1-3 for Wed. Still think 2-4 or even
      3-6 is better. Time will tell.

  21. I like the vikings, if the pats DON’T make it I have no problem with cheering on the vikings they deserve it after many years of not making it to the big game. With that said, All the teams have defenses that can play. Vikings and Eagles have defenses that can play. Jags have a defense as well and people probably consider the patriots defense to be the weakest but I am not sure about that and the patriots offense will counter what ever weakness of the patriots defense. Not sure who I would want the patriots to face in the SB.

    1. Actually the D for the pats is getting better . I think the DC wants to go out on top as I believe he is the next lions head coach . If Josh goes as well than I suspect the pats know that B.B. has at least another couple of years which I believe to be the case anyways .

          1. Not so . He’s been sought after and held back . If bill isn’t leaving I say go try it again he earned it . I would like him to be bills replacement but I don’t think Bill is going anywhere .

            1. And no he’s not. He wants o be s head coach. Although I’m not sure I’d want to work for Irsay.

  22. If Minnesota wins it would be the first team to play in there own stadium for a super bowl . The 49rs & Rams came close but in both cases felt moving to a bigger stadium was the better move .

  23. What an ending to that Saints Vikings game. Four lead changes in the final 3:01. Being a Cowboys fan I will be rooting for the Vikings to beat the Eagles next Sunday.

  24. If the Vikings go to the SB it will probably be the first one with an actual “noise factor” throughout the game. No way will fan support be 50/50. It will be 90% Viking fans.

    The opposing team had better practice with NOISE to say the least.

  25. Well at least I predicted the 2 winners today. 😉

    Maybe they didn’t play out how most people imagined but…

  26. I believe there has to be an even number of super bowl tickets for both sides, not to mention most have already been sold, so not sure.

    1. Very few tickets actually go to the fans of either team. After each team is allotted their tickets, the rest are corporate who couldn’t care less about the actual game

    1. I wonder about that. One has to assume they’d force neutrality in whichever arena plays host to the Superbowl.

  27. Marcus Williams’ mistake was the worst I have ever seen in an NFL football game. I’ve been watching games since the mid 1970s. Blair Walsh’s missed field goal from 27 yards out was bad. But, this was just horrifically bad. I feel badly for Williams, because it’s going to haunt him for a long time.

  28. My son will be very happy if the Vikings and Patriots are playing each other in the big game. Won’t know who it is until next Sunday evening though! 😉

    1. They are in the process of moving it. They only had a certain window of time in which to do so.

      1. moving it from to???
        tx. wish they explained that in the explanation text.

        000
        NOUS61 KBOX 141203 CCA
        FTMBOX

        MESSAGE DATE: JAN 14 2018 09:15

        KBOX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE DO
        NOT HAVE A TIMELINE YET ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RESTORE SERVICE.
        WE APPOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

        $$

        KAB

  29. As long as I see snow from the Tuesday night into Wed system I will be happy. If the follow up system happens it is a bonus.

  30. Now it appears that rain could now be involved for the midweek storm. Hope not.

    I also find it interesting that Gloucester is in the WWA but not Boston.

  31. current radar. been snowing here i n JP for about an hour now.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOS&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=TR0&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25266877&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    temp 15 dp 6

    conditions at boston buoy

    Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
    5-day plot – Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
    5-day plot – Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
    5-day plot – Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
    5-day plot – Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
    5-day plot – Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
    5-day plot – Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 54 deg true )
    5-day plot – Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.68 in
    5-day plot – Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
    5-day plot – Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 25.9 °F
    5-day plot – Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 41.9 °F

    5 am logan

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W
    2 Day History

    Light Snow
    15.0 °F
    Last Updated: Jan 15 2018, 4:54 am EST
    Mon, 15 Jan 2018 04:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Snow
    Temperature: 15.0 °F (-9.4 °C)
    Dewpoint: 7.0 °F (-13.9 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 70 %
    Wind: from the North at 16.1 gusting to 25.3 MPH (14 gusting to 22 KT)
    Wind Chill: -1 F (-18 C)
    Visibility: 6.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1040.1 mb
    Altimeter: 30.72 in Hg

    so there is a convergence zone wind 050 16 miles east, while wind North at logan

  32. SNOWING decently here now. Beginning to accumulate. Still dark, so hard to guess vis, but I would guess around 1 mile or so. Getting there., Looks really nice out.

      1. This Boston Radar
        TDWR High Definition Station BOS
        tends to show precip broken up some, when in fact, it is not.

        Wish the other radar was operational.

    1. Would like to see that 5-6 inch range move a bit more east. Hopefully not TOO much rain gets involved in Boston.

  33. Even though rain is mentioned in the am NWS Discussion, the forecast for the city of Boston has all snow for Wednesday and temps no higher than 30. The forecast and discussion should match, at least in theory, correct?

  34. Some light snow even here in Wrentham this morning. All looks on track. RAP/HRRR are totally lost on this. Throw them out. Radar will struggle to pick this stuff up as well, although it’s unfortunate that the KBOX radar isn’t working at all.

    If this main band stays quasi-stationary for several hours, that’s how we get the localized 5-6″ amounts.

    1. It is PURE Fluff. Temp here in JP is 13 with DP 4, yet it is snowing and blowing. I’d wager ratio is at least 20, more like 25 or perhaps even 30:1.

  35. New post!

    Up-ticked today’s #’s very slightly.
    First guess for Tuesday night & Wednesday is slightly conservative and I may have to edge those up slightly as things become more clear.

    Going mobile now then mom has an appointment mid afternoon so will check in when I can.

    Good day all!

Comments are closed.