Monday Forecast

183 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)
Cold air dominates and a wind off the Atlantic will combine with this cold to produce ocean-effect snow showers from the NH Seacoast through much of eastern MA into RI today with the most significant of the accumulating snow along the Shore Shore of MA. This fades away tonight but then we’ll be watching a cold front approach from the west and enhance a developing low pressure area offshore, passing southeast of New England Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will produce a light to moderate snowfall across southeastern New England, though it may be warm enough for some rain to be involved in Cape Cod and the Islands. Dry weather returns later in the week although a weak disturbance passing by may bring a few snow showers to the region early Friday.
TODAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous snow showers Cape Cod to South Shore of MA with accumulation of 1-3 inches possible but a locally heavier band of 3-5 inches possible. Scattered to isolated snow showers remainder of eastern MA, RI, and NH Seacoast region with scattered coatings to around 1 inch accumulation. Highs 20-28. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early, favoring Cape Cod. Lows 12-20. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Partial sun early then mainly cloudy. Highs 20-28. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely except snow to rain Cape Cod. Temperatures rising to 25-35, mildest Cape Cod. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast with snow likely except rain Cape Cod and Islands changing to mix/snow before all precipitation tapers off afternoon. Potential snow accumulation 1-3 inches Cape Cod, 3-6 inches remainder of the region except isolated 6-8 inch amounts possible in north central and northeastern MA to southern NH. Highs 27-37. Wind variable becoming N increasing to 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)
High pressure will dominate with dry weather and moderating temperatures during the January 20-21 weekend followed by unsettled weather favoring rain over snow January 22 then a turn to colder and drier late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)
Most likely a dry/cold beginning to the period, moderating temperatures and unsettled weather mid period then drier again by late. Timing uncertain and confidence remaining low for this period.

183 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thank you TK. I like your forecast. Seems to be totally and completely in line. 😀
    Not that it isn’t always.

    re-post

    It is PURE Fluff. Temp here in JP is 13 with DP 4, yet it is snowing and blowing. I’d wager ratio is at least 20, more like 25 or perhaps even 30:1.

  4. Now that it is light, can better judge vis.
    I’d sat 1 1/2 to 2 miles in light snow.
    7AM obs at Boston and Beverely say 4 miles. Right now I think less than that.

    3. Here is a NAM 925 chart showing winds at approximately 2500-2600 feet.
      This is what I believe the NWS was refering to an Easterly low level jet to
      enhance the snow. This is bringing in ocean moisture and being lifted above
      the coastal front.

      https://imgur.com/a/i4eyn

      1. From NWS

        The coastal front across Plymouth county along with a 25 to 30 knot
        easterly LLJ will result in the mesoscale snow event mainly across
        portions of eastern MA…but some lighter snow showers/flurries will
        impact RI. We have to rely on the high resolution models and
        climatology on these type of events as heavier snow bands tend to be
        quite narrow and localized.

  8. Any idea (right now) when it might be snowing in Boston and northwest on Tuesday? Looking for a time…thanks!

  10. Anyone have any idea as to why the HRRR has NO CLUE regarding this
    Mesoscale event today? It is supposed to be a short range High Resolution Model?????
    I don’t get it.

  12. FROM NWS

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Page Liked · 3 mins ·

    Even though our radar, KBOX, is still down due to a mechanical issue, forecasters use other tools to assess the ongoing situation when it comes to ocean effect snowfall. Here is a list of a few we are currently using.
    As for KBOX: Techs will be working on it throughout the day.

    https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/26730827_1596748313752867_1680876332360177519_n.jpg?oh=87fd9c3036e5fa6a51458eec8175dbfa&oe=5AEE5F79

  13. We had a graupel shower pre dawn when the coastal front went west of us …..

    Now we have a few fine snow grains flying about from time to time.

    I’m guessing as the wave of low pressure continues northeast offshore, this area of precip will begin to sink southeast later today with the retreat of the coastal front.

        1. Still snowing, but lighter.
          Is it the radar or has the mesoscale synoptic features
          just disappeared. Never expected this.

          1. That is my hope. Perhaps when the Easterly LLJ kicks in? I dunno.

            Either that or this whole set up was a colossal bust.

            Frankly I am totally surprised and disappointed.

            But, hey this is New England. Expect surprises.
            Perhaps we will be surprised tomorrow night??

            OR NOT!

    2. This wasn’t a big deal for Boston to begin with and a stop was forecasted and than it will start backup , it’s not over .

  16. In case anyone is counting down to spring

    Last half of Met winter starts today. 45 days till met spring.
    64 days till the vernal equinox. Sunrise will be at 6:48 am, EDT; sunset at 6:56 EDT

    Sun angle today at solar noon: 33.1
    Sun angle March 20 at solar noon: 54.1

    1. I like to hear this.

      I don’t want to have snow days this week.

      It’s been rather difficult to reestablish a learning flow with of the time off lately. It would be nice to get 3 or 4 straight weeks of school.

      I am onto the ratios, rates, unit rates and proportions units, so I’d like to cover that without any weekday interruptions 🙂 🙂

      1. Kids are resilient Tom. I’m sure they can handle a few more snow days. 😀

        I understand your point though, all kidding aside.

  18. I am just getting around to reading yesterday’s Boston Herald and according to an article in the sports section a squad of Titans tap danced on the Patriots logo at midfield before the game. BB would have had that squad face some serious bench time I suspect.

    Why do coaches continue to allow things like that like trash talking, etc? That is why the Steelers lost yesterday. All that chirping about looking ahead to playing us got them a crashing end to their postseason. 😉

  21. In pembroke … where it’s a nasty mix of snow grains and freezing drizzle. The freezing drizzle is unmistakable, as the house windows were filling with tiny raindrops and my car window has an icy cover to it.

  22. I’m still waiting….

    From NWS 10AM update:

    Latest TBOS
    trends continue to show reflectivity weakening over the past 30
    minutes. This may be in part to the lost of the stout convergence
    region. However guidance does indicate that snow showers will
    pick back up with adv levels snow during the evening commute. No
    changes to the headlines at this time.

    2. Old salty look for it to start back up within the next hour or so . Again Most of the accumulation down this way maybe 2+ with less up towards the city .

    3. BTW just saw 2-4 range for next one as rain line concerns more N/W of the city as of now I’m sure this will change again

  23. Seeing same in marshfield. A few snow pellets/grains but mostly freezing drizzle and everything is glazed over. Very slippery !!!!

    1. Snowing here again. Not heavy by any stretch, but light with very small flakes blowing around in the wind.

  24. Definitely not impressed with the ocean effect at this point. Odd, because that was a nice band we had this morning. Will give it another 2-3 hours to start back up before calling bust though. These events are fickle, it could pick up at any time this afternoon.

  28. One thing’s for sure, the Canadian hi-res guidance (RGEM, HRDPS) smoked the US hi-res guidance (NAM and the whole WRF suite) with this event. Even if the ocean effect starts to pick back up, we’re not going to get near the 0.3-0.5″ QPF jackpots the WRF guidance was showing. Canadian models had been more in the 0.1″ range for their QPF max. HRRR and RAP also seem to be doing well, although I’m not convinced they’re hitting it for the right reasons. Not sure they’d “see” ocean effect even if it was there.

    And the thing is, even 0.1″ QPF would be more than enough to get our 2-4″ of snow. I can’t quantitatively confirm this, but I would bet the stuff that fell here in Wrentham earlier was on close to a 40:1 ratio. As lightweight a snow as I’ve seen.

    2. Well, so far that Ocean Effect Map is WAY OUT OF LINE!

      It’s nearly 2:30 PM. Yeah right that will verify.

  31. 12z Euro wants to RAIN in Eastern MA. That despite 925 and 850 mb temps BELOW
    FREEZING. What’s up with that????? Wants to give boston next to zilch.
    I don’t think that is correct.

      1. Yes, the GFS and the CMC. But I was zeroed in on the 925 and 850Mb temps. To me that means snow. Ocean is cold enough
        as is this air mass. WHY rain???????????????????????

          1. My gut says snow, but then you know how often
            that is wrong.

            I guess we’ll know come Wednesday. 😀

        1. Multiple agencies working in Marshfield to keep up with one accident after the other . Cars into cars , telephone poles , a house etc. very hazardous conditions here .

  33. It’s above my pay grade in meteorology …

    You’ll hear about the snow growth region and where the snow flakes form.

    I think today’s a case that the moisture is developing at a very low altitude, below where snow crystals can be formed, topped by dry air above it.

    It’s been a 2 to 4 hr freezing drizzle/mist episode that’s really caused a lot of problems from marshfield to Plymouth. Hopefully, it shuts off soon.

    1. I do think that is part of the problem. We were “supposed” to get the snow
      from the convergence provided by the coastal front and then Low Level
      Easterly Jet. Yeah like that materialized.

  34. And if my eyes don’t deceive me, it looks like the watches for tues night into Wednesday now include Boston.

    1. Indeed you are correct.

      http://www.weather.gov/box/

      Probably OVER playing this as well. We shall see.

      Boston under Winter Storm watch for 4-6 inches(!@&*(#&*(!@&#*!&@#Give me a break. That is just advisory level snow. Has all of society gone
      WIMPY! ?????????????????????????????????????????????????

  35. I too really want to know as well why today’s event seems to be busting. I don’t know a whole lot about lake/ocean effect snow. By its nature, lake/ocean effect banding is very shallow, so I don’t think the clouds were “too low”. But certainly the moisture profile could be playing a role.

    Other ideas… Wind/speed direction not ideal, either at surface or aloft? Too many high level clouds? I think lake effect typically occurs from cumuliform clouds under mainly clear skies, but not sure if there’s any “problem” created by having high clouds. I think it goes to show how difficult it is to get good ocean effect around here.

    1. As far as I know, no problem having the higher clouds around.
      I have seen big Ocean Effect events with plenty of high cloud coverage.

      The NWS did note that it was pretty dry above the 925MB level, but they thought
      that the convergence from front and the LL easterly jet would make up for it.
      Perhaps not.

      Here is some of the NWS language

      We
      expect this activity to increase near daybreak and especially later
      this morning as the 925 easterly LLJ increase to between 25 and 30
      knots. The other main component will be a coastal front that is
      currently setting up over Plymouth County. Temps to the northwest of
      this boundary will be in the upper teens/lower 20s, while areas
      southeast of the boundary will see readings in the upper 20s to
      lower 30s and some locales across the Cape/ACK will get above
      freezing. Lastly, the land/sea interface will also aid in forcing
      for this mesoscale snow event.

  36. 18Z NAM STILL INSISTS on ocean effect snow overnight into around Noonish
    Tomorrow. We shall see about that.

    One thing the NWS said, snow around commute time. Yeah sure. That will happen.

  38. The Tuesday night/Wednesday forecast remains an uncomfortable one for me. I’m okay with the idea that there will be a heavier band somewhere due to mid-level dynamics. But it’s all very precise. Not an impressive surface system at all. Shift the better dynamics 25-50 miles in either direction and it’s either nothing but rain for SNE or some light, fragmented snow. I don’t really buy the Euro solution, I think it’s too warm with too much QPF. 18z NAM is more in the “sweet spot” for our region, but not going to put all my eggs in that basket either. For now, would broad-brush most of the region in a 3-6″ band, except C-2″ southeast of Taunton. Lot of uncertainty though.

      1. No . It’s very late Tuesday night / Wednesday morning . Wednesday commute definitely impacted

    1. It felt A LOT colder. It felt colder today than it did on any of the frigid days last week. It was a raw cold, went right to my bones

      2. I agree as well. But wait, I have been outdoors yet. After super, we’re headed out for a few errands.

      1. Before the allegations, I might have been interested.
        Now, not so much.
        But, thank you very much just the same.

      1. Yes, I enjoyed Stranger Things as well. My daughter suggested Dark (it’s a German show) but that was too creepy for me–maybe you’ll like it, she does.
        Another genre–The Good Place

        1. I’ll keep talking. My daughter-in-law recommended The Crown to me.
          We’ve also been watching Murder In Paradise–it’s kind of light, along the lines of Murder, She Wrote, I think. My husband likes it; me, I fall asleep….

    3. I have multiple suggestions.

      If you enjoy the grittier Christian Bale Batman movies you will love what Netflix is doing with the marvel universe. Excellent writing for most of the series available and great fight scene choreography. If you are interested watch in the order they came out: Daredevil Season 1, Jessica Jones Season 1, Luke Cage Season 1, Daredevil Season 2, Iron Fist Season 1, Defenders Season 1, Punisher Season 1. (Jessica Jones Season 2 will be out soon.)

      Black Mirror is like twilight zone for the modern and near technological future. The very first episode can be quite unsettling but each episode has a totally different feel and you will find yourself loving quite a few.

      Sherlock is the best modern setting of Sherlock Holmes.

      Merlin is a delightfully light fantasy epic fare for a tv show.

      Ash vs the Evil Dead is a fun series if you’ve ever watched the evil dead movie series.

      Obviously stranger things is a huge series for Netflix.

      They have a few fun sitcoms too: unbreakable kimmy Schmidt, Grace and Frankie, disjointed.

      Let me know if any of this agrees with you.

      1. few do. Thanks

        Black Mirror, Sherlock and Stranger things.

        I’ll probably have a peek at many of them.

  45. Today was uncomfortably cold. Yes, even for me. I don’t mind cold days when the sun is shining, but I do mind when it’s overcast and raw with little or no precipitation. It just feels colder for some reason, and the cold penetrates layers of wool and cotton.

  46. NWS sort of explanation for bust.

    Persistent easterly flow coming off the ocean as helped
    saturate the low levels down to the surface. Aloft however, there is
    some dry air which has resulted in a lost of moisture within the
    snow growth region. This includes from -12 down to -8C which is
    favorable for ocean effect. Thus areas of freezing drizzle has
    developed early this afternoon and continues to move into the
    region. Several reports of motor vehicle accidents have occurred
    across the south coast up towards the south shore. Because of the
    slick travel, went ahead an expanded the winter weather advisory for
    southern Plymouth. Outside of there, southern Bristol and the Cape,
    went ahead with an SPS as this region seems to be more scattered
    then widespread. Also went ahead and transitioned the winter weather
    advisory for more of a mixed precip and glaze of ice event versus
    the higher snow amounts. The lack of moisture in the snow growth
    region today has undercut amounts just a bit.

      1. The amounts were not large forecast amounts anyway, so yes it’s just a bit. Most people hear the word “snow” and immediate think “snowstorm”. It’s a very bad habit of the public but it’s the fault of the media.

    2. We had the snow earlier but with the freezing drizzle down this way and snowing now in some parts wasn’t a complete bust here.

      1. I don’t recall any forecasts of icing down there. It seemed all about at least a few inches of snow. Awful road conditions I saw on the tv news.

        1. We had mostly everything snow covered this morning and instead of snowing more later it was freezing rain . It’s now starting to snow again

  47. Freezing drizzle resulted in multiple accidents between Exits 2-3 down in the South Middleborough, Carver, Rochester area.

  51. The freezing drizzle was not forecast, but we have found ourselves with a very shallow layer of warmer air coming off the ocean but riding over a shallow layer of cold air at the ground. Models missed it. We missed it. Tricky situation we don’t see all that often. These ocean-effect events are rather tricky anyway. They are often very localized and not so often very widespread. People see the word “snow” in the forecast and don’t really take into account whether there is a descriptive word or phrase with it. There is also a general mentality that if there is a “chance of snow” or “snow showers” that it will be snowing all day everywhere. I realize most people here don’t think this way but the public is kind of lead to believe this due to one-icon forecasts so available.

    Thinking currently remains the same for the Wednesday system.

    1. So does the rain/snow line stay away from Boston for Wednesday? The models on tv have it ohsoclose…as usual.

  52. How about turning Boston Harbor and pretty much everything from Swampscott to Cohasset into a fresh water lake with no natural tides and putting a bunch of lives and property in danger by building a 14-mile dike and covering it with places to go and things to do? Yeah, great idea… 😛 Hope they are going to provide people with extra fingers to plug up the holes. 😉

    https://commonwealthmagazine.org/environment/14-mile-dike-protect-greater-boston-sea-level-rise/

    2. Proven solution, politically palatable, environmentally sound, publically acceptable, and economically solid. Should work.

    3. It won’t be approved, my school and several others already are in the works for other technologies that are much more affordable and less damaging to the enviornment. Its our darn fault for building on marsh land.

  53. Today’s forecast was obviously not a good one. Unless I’m forgetting a day or two, this was probably the first true short term forecast bust of this winter. But as TK said, it was a hard forecast. If there was going to be a likely candidate for a bust, this was it. Onto the next…

    For Tuesday night/Wednesday… watch for the 0z guidance, especially the Euro, to trend colder/less QPF. Or, at least, watch for the high res guidance to be colder/drier than the global models. I don’t think the rain line gets much past Boston, if it even gets there. Would not be surprised if amounts end up lower northwest with less QPF. My map would be something like a blend of the NWS “most likely” and “low end” maps, more towards the low end northwest and a pure bend inside 495. 3-6″ for many.

          1. I agree. Too much focus on exact amounts. You can have a range of 3-6 for example and the amounts within the city of Boston could range that much from one end to the other, or even greater in some instances.

  54. My goodness now we are concerned between 3-4 or 4-5 🙂

    Happy to be just adding a little more to the seasons totals. I remember when a 3-6 or 4-8 storm was great. Not sure why everything has to be a major storm.

    1. Since the vast minority of Boston’s snow events are 8+, the one like the upcoming one are far more common. 🙂 They are also the types of snowfalls I thought would dominate this winter with the biggies a lot harder to come by.

    1. There may be stray flakes any time in the evening but the steady stuff should be around or after midnight.

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