Boston Area Forecast – Monday Update

29 Comments

4:28PM

For a full discussion, see the previous post!

Boston Area Forecast…

THROUGH TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain, some heavy. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Temperature cooling through the 60s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely, but slowly decreasing in coverage through the day. High 70-75. Wind N around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of fog over inland valley locations. Low 60-65 except 50s inland valleys. Wind light N becoming calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

29 thoughts on “Boston Area Forecast – Monday Update”

  1. Thanks TK for the update. Actually this “noreaster” is quite typical for August. We usually get at least one towards late summer. My bet is it will turn hot one or two more times between now and the end of September. I can hardly wait for October.

    1. If it does stay wetter than normal, it won’t be because of storms like today’s. There are still strong signs of western Atlantic ridging. An above normal precip pattern in that setup would be due to us being around the western edge of that ridge, or in a weakness between a western Atlantic and Mid Continental ridge to the west.

        1. Thanks TK 🙂 I heard spot showers Fri, Sat and Sun afternoon on Ch 7 this morning. I can live with that. In all honestly I really love a stormy day at the beach too. (just one – two tops) 🙂

  4. I can’t wait for Wed to get here because that looks like a top 10 summer day.
    An impressive storm system with parts of Long Island, NY get 10.69 inches of rain. Imagine if that was snow that would be something like 106 inches. I hope wish this was the winter.
    No change in the thunderstorm index which remains at 1 since I am not expecting severe weather.

  5. I meant to say I wish this was winter. This could have dumped some impressive totals in places.

    1. I’d be more slightly concerned if it were the 00z or 12z that had done that, and then done it for a few runs in a row. That said, those better runs are showing hints of sliding into a pattern that can support storms getting closer to the East Coast, but this is a general long term pattern theory and there are no specifics to be had at this time.

  7. Taking that with a bucket load of salt. It has been a while since a hurricane has hit the U.S. which was IkE in 2008. This may end up being like last year where it was an active year but nothing making landfall in the U.S. I remember Joe Bastardi saying active hurricane seasons tend to lead to cold winter in the east.

  8. I’m still chuckling this morning about Scott’s comment about his “older” neighbors breaking out the rock salt. It sure got windy here as the storm pulled away. My rain gauge broke a while ago so I don’t know how much rain we got but other than my sky light leaking it didn’t really seem to be anything unusual in Framingham.

  10. 06Z has Tropical system (looks to be a hurricane) into Mississippi/Alabama
    Gulf Coast on 8/30. There has been some consistency in this projection.
    Interesting to keep following it, even IF nothing happens.

    Here is a link:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F16%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  13. What is interesting about the tropical season of 2011 to me is while we are running above average there has yet to be a hurricane. I think that will be changing and no one should let their guard down because to me the prime time for tropical development is from the 20th of August to the 20th of October and it only takes one landfalling hurricane to make it a bad season as was the case in 1992 when Andrew struck south Florida.

  17. And POOF!! Just like that, the 12Z has no sign at ALL of that tropical system
    anywhere on the map. It just goes to show one that it can be foolhardy to look
    at the GFS long range, BUT we do it anyway!! LOL

    1. The GFS is notorious to losing big storms, then all of a sudden they show up again, especially this far out.

  19. scott,

    I see what happened. The 12Z GFS was not complete, so what I had never went
    far enough out.

    One thing we can say: The models are showing something, even if they can’t make
    up their minds WHERE it will go. Something that we need to watch, to be sure.

    1. I figured something like that happened, has happened to me before.

      The tropics are definitely showing signs of life, and something major could develop in the near future…

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