Friday Forecast

128 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)
We have made it through the “front-loaded” portion of the winter and have reached the point of the relaxing weather pattern. It doesn’t mean winter is over and spring is here. It doesn’t mean we’re done with cold air and threats of wintry precipitation. It does mean we’re in a new weather pattern, and the next 5 days will preview that with a cycle of fair weather, starting chilly but moderating, then ending unsettled with a storm tracking northwest of the region. However before that storm does that, a cold front will slip southward, putting an end to the weekend warm-up with a chilly Monday and may set up inland areas to see some snow/sleet/ice before that mild air returns. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of late-day or nighttime rain/drizzle except a period of snow/sleet/ice possible interior. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperatures rising through the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)
Fair/windy/colder January 24. Fair/chilly/tranquil January 25. Fair and milder January 26-27. Unsettled and mild January 28.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Fair, cooler start, moderation, then unsettled weather late in the period.

128 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Its been a busy last 6 weeks or so of weather … seen some interesting things in Marshfield, such as ….

    The coastal front related/ocean enhanced freezing drizzle event a few days ago (never seen that much ice in Marshfield in the 17 years we have been here)

    One storm tide that many locales compared to the Blizzard of 78 tides.

    An impressive 10 day to 2 week stretch of cold the last week of December, into the first week of January

    1. Tom : I have heard some comparing going on in regards to the two storms . Having grown up in Marshfield and actually that blizzard was our first winter there, the blizzard of 78 was just a completely destructive storm with houses leveled up & down the coast & motorized boats going down parts of ocean bluff like it was a waterway . I grew up in fieldston ( proud member of 9th road beach ) right on ocean bluff and luckily the house never received damage . The only other destruction storm I remember which again was bad damage wise and again multiple houses & businesses just ripped off of foundations was the October no name storm ( just ripped through the neighborhoods along the coast. My favorite place for seafood Charlie’s was leveled .

      1. SSK, my daughter went to Humarock the weekend following the storm. She drove through other areas as well. We had a conversation similar to what you just stated when she returned. We did not go to the south shore after 1978. We did after 1991. The house we rent in Humarock had been literally washed into the river in the 1991 storm. There was visible damage to many homes. She did not see that this time; however, she had expected it having seen the flood photos.

        I had intended to ask Tom of his comparison. I wonder if so many homes were raised onto “stilts” after 1991??

        1. I forgot to add that I do know the water and river meets far more often now than it did back during those storms. I also know the tide is much higher.

          1. My best friends family has a house in Humarock and I spent a lot of time down there. I do remember a lot of houses being raised after 91 I believe.

            1. Maybe you will be there at some point where I am. How lucky he is to have a home there. I do know that you cannot have insurance on your home there if it is not raised. Makes sense to me.

              1. Yeah it has been a while since I’ve been there. Used to go every year for July 3rd, but that event has gone away for the most part.

        2. It was mandated after October storm . Major destruction I remember that night . I walk up the beach than go home put on dry clothes go back and do a double take as homes there an hour earlier were gone and this proceeded all evening . Never forget that night I could have died if alone a deck floating pinned me under a truck

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I have officially moved into BORED mode. Sorry. 😀

    At least we have a GAME on Sunday and I do hope it is QB12 at the helm
    and not Brian Horror.

    1. The whole injured finger thing cracks me up. Sort of making a mockery of the media and how easily they hoar themselevs out for a story. Keep them distracted with that to keep them from mailing up a bunch of other nonsense. How’s that bellichick to the giants story working out for them?

      1. I certainly understand that with this team that is certainly
        a distinct possibility. I watched that video and looked at the photo. If his thumb were severely injured, he would be holding
        it up and not letting the arm/hand hang down as that would throb and be very painful.

        HE’LL BE FINE and probably will have a record game. 😀 😀 😀

        2. Until Brady or Belichick formerly addresses the media regarding the hand and/or Brady fully participates in practice, I am going to continue to worry. If we still had Garroppolo, I would still give us an excellent chance to win, even the SB (heaven forbid) TB-12 is unable to play.

          1. I have to admit I have just a little worry. Got me thinking about when Bledsoe had that pin in his finger. Remember that.

  9. climate will always change, thats not the issue. The issue is the rate at which its happening. The fact that we know for a FACT that we are altering our atmosphere. We have extremely accurate climate models. PS much more accurate than our every day weather model. The fact that we have natural events that all point to that we should be cooling. While the only thing that increases temperature is green house gas. We have models on the natural state of the atmosphere with its up and down. We will have times of ups and downs, Not everyone will warm evenly, but the overall global temperature will increase with the greatest rate of change being the polar regions. In 20 years don’t blame us if you can’t breath our air. We warned you.

    1. Matt, let me preface by saying I’m not arguing for or against your beliefs here but I want to clear something up. You state we have extremely accurate climate models. That is just not true. These are the same models that said back in the 90’s that in 20-30 years the earth will be a very different place, but alas, here we are. The predictions were way overblown. The models are only as good as the data and people entering that data and writing the algorithms.

      1. I’m interested in what you mean by a different place and who was saying this. I do know that in the 90s it was said that the oceans would be rising. They are. Also, I do believe we are far different in that our pollution has increased considerably. Back in the 90s, for instance, PCBs were in some waters. Now they are in every waterway on earth. I understand I mention PCBs but then it is because it was Mac’s expertise and I know it is fact and a good example. We are running out of clean water. That is not as much pollution as population but both play a part.

        To me we are a different place. We were making strides in combating some. A good portion of that has been undone. I can only hope that it will be redone.

        1. By very different place I mean the predictions were wildly overstated by the administrations in place at the time. Yes, sea levels have risen but not even close to the rate and levels that were predicted by models back then. Pollution levels are nowhere near what was predicted. My theory, without these extreme predictions, no one would have blinked an eye, no one would take anything seriously, and more importantly no government grants would be justified. Its the same idea as matt’s final statement,…”In 20 years don’t blame us if you can’t breath our air. We warned you.”

          1. We’ve come a long way with cleaning up the ground and water to your point Ace. And on the twenty years, yeah, I’m not going to bet against us being able to breath in that time. Maybe the GFS will be more accurate past three days by then.

          2. Thanks, Ace. That helps. I think your theory is spot on. We have a deep history of not making changes until we go to extremes. Once we finally recognize there is a problem, we back off. Unfortunately, at the moment, we are moving in reverse; and that scares me.

            I fully believe we will be breathing air in 20 years. However, I am not as convinced that our water situation will not be facing serious problems not far past that.

      2. I should clarify, Ace, when I am talking about the climate models, I do not mean the ones that predict what the big picture is, I am talking about the temperature and precipitation models. These been extremely accurate and actually all the models have shown the temperature on the top of the range of prediction. Remember when looking at the climate model, what they do is they run it like the ensembles, they run it thousands of times. They take the average and use that as the max height. They then use the bottom line as the bottom and use the middle and the bottom as the range. The middle of this range is then used as the forecast. They never use the real top of the range. When you look back to them, remember the max was the original median. The temperature ranges, the Carbon in the atmosphere, all have been within the top of the forecast range. These are extremely accurate. I have seen it at work, very complex, very cool. Mets that form the every day weather models could learn a thing or two from them.

  11. Everybody has a right to say what he wants. But I don’t like it when there is so much disagreement – especially on a weather blog.

    Hey, someday, God forbid – a button could be pushed and the only things left would be giant cockroaches.

    Off my soapbox.

    1. I don’t mind disagreement as long as it’s civil and contains well thought out commentary. Just because we all love weather and follow a weather blog doesn’t mean we all have to agree on climate change and other weather related topics. There is no right or wrong answer

    2. rainshine. I understand your comment, and always love your input. I think, with only a few exceptions, it has been a constructive and good discussion.

  12. I find it most interesting that ever since global warming much of this century has featured cold and especially snowy winters around here and much of the nation, including the Deep South. Only 2011-12 was the very warm exception.

    I have also noticed that this century has featured fall foliage a good two weeks behind schedule. For the first time that I can recall, leaves still on the trees well into early December..and not just the mighty oaks.

    When global warming was first discussed back in the 1980s, I was imagining much less snow, not more (i.e. 2015). No surprise regarding foliage, however.

    I read somewhere awhile back that Boston would someday have winters like Richmond VA. Well I would say Richmond has been having more like Boston winters as has much of the mid-Atlantic and south lately.

    1. Given our recent bitter cold outbreak, I would hate to think what a “global cooling” winter would be like. 😉

    2. Increasing temperatures, will weaken the PV, which will allow cold out breaks across the lower 48. Climate change is more than the average temperature its about increased extremes. When they are talking about Boston being like Virginia, It will take a while for that to happen, but we will only get these cold shots as long as the Arctic/ magnetic north can hold enough cold air. Eventually the sources of cold air will leave.

  14. FYI, the giant cockroaches was meant to bring some laughs. Although, I guess it wouldn’t be so funny.

    I will go back into the charlie hole now.

    Still waiting for some sun today.

    1. It gave me a chuckle but more importantly it gave me a nice memory. Mac’s parents rented a lovely home in Wild Dunes (Isle of Palms, SC) for a family reunion years ago. I had a favorite chair. Above that favorite chair a cockroach (they call them palmetto bugs 😉 ) like to camp out on the ceiling. It was the size of a small mouse….I swear! The bet for the week was how fast I could move from the chair when it fell from the ceiling.

      1. Oh I believe. We were in Bermuda one time going back to our room at night. There was one of those suckers in the hallway and when I went to stomp on the damn thing it got up on it’s hind legs and started to charge at me. I actually ran the other way for a moment, until I realized how absolutely SILLY that was as I could crush it to death in a moment, which I DID. What a mess
        on the rug. 😀 😀 😀

        1. Three laugh out loud comments today. Thanks, JPD!!!

          I admit to squirming a bit when you described the creature, however.

  15. Re: my 6-10 and 11-15 segments…

    They are more Farmer’s Almanac style when I feel more confident in the medium range.

    It’s a more general description otherwise.

    2. Thank you and I think today’s discussion has been very respectful. Of course I’m in a cough syrup fog so everything looks happy to me 🙂

        1. hahahaha – well played TK!

          I’m afraid I have picked up the lovely little thing your mom and others had….acute bronchitis and pneumonia. Working is not helping but I’m headed to the couch soon.

          PS – I didn’t catch it from them…. 😉

  18. My youngest and I were discussing this topic loosely. She made a comment that, to me, brought important points home. She said that we cannot control our food, we do not care what we put into our own bodies, so why would we worry about what we put into the earth, water, sky.

    I’m counting on the younger generation to continue some of what we have started, undo a lot of what we have done, and work together. You are all shining stars IMO.

  19. I feel as though things are getting warmer.

    Go back 200 to 300 years and all those cement roads and roadways we have in our modernized society were green trees, grass or forests. There were no urban heat islands. With more and more development, the land part of the earth has slowly become a darker, more heat absorbing color.

    Then, if you believe that elevated CO2 helps the atmosphere retain more heat, then we’ve created a system that is accepting more heat energy and sending less back to space. Thus, the heat energy into earths system is in a slow, surplus phase.

  20. Translating that to weather, earths atmosphere is always seeking balance. If more heat is added to the system, then it figures that the earths atmosphere would be sending more heat towards the poles. In turn, to maintain balance, it would be sending more cold towards the tropics. More amplified pattern, larger temperature swings.

    4. No source, just a hunch.

      I don’t see B.B. adding more distraction to his team before the AFCCC just to throw off the Jags.

      I hope I’m wrong!

      1. I just burned up like 10 gigs on my data plan looking for reports. You had me crapping my pants. Even if he weren’t gonna play, you wouldn’t know until kickoff. No way bellichick would tip his hand this early.

        1. Is there a rule where if a player is a non participant at practice leading up to the game then he is ineligible to play in the game?

          1. I can’t imagine there is but maybe. Hoyer has a pretty decent record against the jags. Same division. Just in case something goes freaking sideways with Brady before or during game.

            1. Not that I am aware.
              I heard a discussion of just that last night.|
              Players have MISSED practice on the last one before the game and STILL played.

    1. Even if the defense(heaven forbid) gives up the winning points in the last few minutes, forever this game will be remembered for Brady’s HAND with speculation if more points could have been scored. This game may very well dictate Brady’s ultimate legacy for generations.

  25. Thank you, TK.

    I think the milder weather will help Brady. I think an injury like his would be worse if it was in the teens or low 20s at game time.

    1. I heard that on the radio this morning as well. It will help the Jags as well unfortunately as it is THEIR airmass. 😉

  26. ESPN Breaking news !!!!

    Point spread swings to now favored Jags by 3 as report by blogger Coastal on Woodshill Weather says Brady likely out of AFC championship game.

    2. He was smiling a lot during the press conference. I’m guessing he wouldn’t be if he wasn’t going to play…..

  29. ***** BREAKING NEWS *****

    CNN…

    It has been revealed that Tom Brady is recovery from SURGERY adding
    a 6th Finger to accommodate another Super Bowl Ring.

      1. That should have been a laugh not a sad face. Blame my husband. I don’t know how to make a laughing face.

  30. Root for the Farmers’ Almanac to be right if you want a snow event calling for a Major Noreaster with 1-2 feet of snow possible between Feb. 4th-7th.

  32. I am so rooting for the Vikings. Don’t want to see the Eagles go to the Super Bowl being a Cowboys fan.

    1. My supervisor at work is originally from CT and he is a Vikings fan as is a former co-worker also from CT.

      What is it with the correlation between CT and being a Vikings fan?

      1. Philip this is news to me. I have no idea. There is one home I see when I am driving with a Vikings flag hung and the person or people in that house must have gone crazy when the Minneapolis Miracle happened. I have never spoken to someone from CT who said they are a Vikings fan. There are Cowboys fans like me 49ers fans, Giants, Jets, Patriots, Steelers, and Dolphins fans who I have met who live in CT.

  33. The Pats never give away anything. No one outside the organization knows exactly how bad Brady is hurt. But, it’s clear this Brady injury is more serious than the so-called Achilles injury he’s been dealing with. This is something more acute. If he feels ready, he’ll play. But if he can’t be effective, the Pats have to start Hoyer, or at least sub him in very early on if Brady can’t throw.

    I expect Brady to start, but if they use him I would expect a lot of run plays mixed in with short passes. They can make that work so long as they don’t fall behind early.

    1. All I can say is that OL had better be prepared to protect Brady as he will need them even more than usual.

    2. I think you are right, WxW. And what happens is what it will be. When I saw coastals comment, my first thought was that it will be interesting then. Plan B.

  34. Felger reported at 2:30 that he talked to his source down at Foxboro. Brady cut his right thumb on someone’s helmet buckle on Wednesday. Required 4 stitches. Stitches are on TOP of the knuckle, not on the underside/pad of the thumb that would grip the ball. Felger said he tried to get multiple sources to confirm, but had to go with what he had. He did say it was really reliable. So take it for what’s it worth. Whatever you think of Felger, he did cover the team for years and knows people down there.
    If that’s all it is, it’ll be a sore son of a B, but he’ll play.

    1. Nice info. Felger can be an obnoxious S.O.B at times, but he is tenacious
      and I wouldn’t doubt his source.

      But even if that is the case, picture every time he grips the ball and flexes that thumb. He’ll pop the stitches. And if they make it impossible for him
      to pop the stitches, then how the bleep would he grip the football?????
      It’s going to be like an elephant playing marbles.

      This is NOT going to be pretty.

      However, IF the Pats can pull out a win on Sunday, then he should be
      much improved by the Super Bowl.

      1. I don’t think it’ll be as bad as that. I’m sure they’ll do it so it’s flexible as can be done. Worse come to worse they’ll shoot it up with some bupivicaine and he won’t know if he popped it or not. Superglue the hell out of it too.
        He’s got it in a splint so he can’t bend it. Zo said he was making a fist with it today so it’ll heal enough. He’s tough as nails.

        1. Agree on toughness. I suspect he plays.

          So how good will Tom Brady be?
          “Good Enough”.

          And then he should be in much better shape
          for the Super Bowl. That 2 weeks off is priceless.

    1. And I’m just saying…watch it go POOF or yet another cutter. Stop getting our hopes up so far in advance JPD! 😀

  37. Hi all!

    Had to take mom to renew her license today. Sharp minded old lady turns 86 in 2 days. I let her drive very short errands only, like 1 or 2 miles tops. She is very alert and all of that. I worry about others out there, but most of the time she drives is on a Sunday midday to visit her sister in law basically right down the street, or maybe to drop off or pick up some dry cleaning, which is even more rare now since my dad passed away. Anyway she passed her vision test with flying colors. 😉

    Addressing a few things…

    *Climate change discussion: I know some people don’t like to read it or participate in it because of the obvious reasons, but since climate & every day weather are directly related, I must allow it here. You are free to state your opinions and debate the topic, but please, please remember no matter how passionate you are about your opinion, direct the passion toward presenting your words nicely and not attacking someone who happens to have a differing opinion. I believe we can all be adult enough to do this, yes? And honestly, if you really do not like interacting with someone here, then simply don’t. I don’t expect you to like every person you come across, but check the personal stuff at the door. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. 🙂

    *Tom Brady: We’ll see. 😉

    *Philip’s question about snow threats during Blizzard Anniversary Week: We’ll see. 😉

    *February pattern: I’m conflicted because I see signs of SE ridge yet signs of super cold Canada and a period of unstable PV and blocking, along with possibly favorable MJO for at least 1 if not 2 episodes of snow/cold. I’ll be working in this outlook going forward.

  38. The injury to a throwing hand or finger or thumb is a feel and touch issue. The ball simply may not go where he wants it to if his feel and touch (essentially his grip) are impaired.
    It also makes him more vulnerable to a fumble in the chaos of the pass rush.
    These are fine motor issues. Very delicate stuff.
    He may need to throw with a glove, which he does not prefer.

    Perhaps, better a thumb than a finger.
    Great if he was making a fist today

  39. According to Eric and Pete there will be another warmup next weekend preceded by a brief chill. I would say no more snow events the rest of the month except for NNE.

    1. Except possibly this coming Monday night for parts of the region. 😉

      And possibly something just before the end of the month.

  40. I have had stitches on my upper thumb, after smashing my hand into a tree while doing some glades in NH. It all depends on where they are located. If its where the thumb bends, it could be a problem

    2. Between climate change and Brady’s hand everyone is pretty much “talked out”. 🙂 Not to mention cutters (Tuesday) don’t really generate much conversation here. 😉

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