Monday Forecast

91 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)
A cold front slipped quietly through from north to south overnight and will make its way back northward as a warm front, but will take about 24 hours to do so, resulting in a cool, damp Monday. It may be cold enough over interior northern MA and southern NH for a little snow/sleet/ice. We get into the warm sector but with more wet weather Tuesday until a cold front moves through from west to east. This will be followed by colder, dry weather for the middle to end of the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain except light snow/sleet/rain north central MA and southern NH. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely except a period of freezing rain possible interior valleys north central MA and southern NH evening. Lows 30-38 evening, rising to 38-45 overnight. Wind light NE to E, shifting to SE overnight.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers, some possibly heavy, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 46-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Temperatures falling from the 40s to the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)
Weekend will be milder with dry weather January 27 and rain showers January 28. Windy/colder start to next week then dry and more tranquil but still on the chilly side for the final couple days of January as high pressure dominates.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Look for a shift to milder but also somewhat unsettled weather to start the month of February.

91 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Just didn’t have time to post last night.

    Going to see what was said in a moment.

  5. Ok, I’m Back.

    What a game. My wife gave up at one point and I told her the games
    was not over yet.

    Once again, Brady had to do it without Gronk.

    Amendola had a Monster game and Cooks wasn’t too shabby himself. Superb team
    win. The D stepped it up when it counted.

    They certainly have a decent chance to win #6. We shall see. I don’t suspect it will
    be easy.

    1. I already told you we are done for snow for winter. Sure we might get two inches here and there. Expect this to go away. lmao

  7. Thanks TK.

    Still wondering what stores sell the official AFC Champs hats. Dicks had a black one I’m wearing but it’s not the locker room one.

    1. Patriots Pro Shop??????

      On the news last night they showed Models, but they were essentially
      SOLD OUT. Sorry. Don’t know what to say.

      1. Try Lidd’s in Downtown Crossing on Winter St. or Modell’s on Boylston St. near Copley Sq. I always get my hats there.

        I have found though that it may take another day for more supplies to come in.

    2. I believe it can only be purchased on line now the official stuff as that’s how it was last year . Actually I think stores had hats not shirts . Check out Fanatics online I get a lot from them & they always have a ton of stuff & usually free shipping . Obviously the pro as well. I find online is just Easier as I’ve done the next day chase and it’s old now .

  8. Thanks TK. Radar a little more impressive than I expected this morning. Widespread light rain with some embedded moderate rain areas. HRRR not modeling this well. Next couple hours look pretty wet.

    Weather station says 34 in Wrentham, and most surfaces are wet, but there were some black ice patches on my driveway. So I’m sure further north and west there are more slick spots.

  9. If the bloggers here represented the 68,000+ at Gillette, the AFC Trophy would have been presented to a 3/4 empty stadium. 😉

        1. If, I were at the game with her, then yes, we certainly would have left. ON the other hand, IF I were at the game without her, NO WAY I LEAVE!

          1. Most everyone stayed it and it was still pretty full, it was a long break with the commercials but worth it. Great sunset at Gillette too.

    2. It is a weekly occurrence, Philip. For some reason, folks have them out of the game and out of the competition about halfway (if that) through the first quarter. They play as they play. They win. And sometimes they lose. Why find fault with something that clearly has worked for them for a long time.

  11. Yesterday’s Pats game was right up there with the best of them. It did not look good much of the way. Make no mistake, they were in real trouble. But they never gave up, and executed when it mattered. I certainly never would’ve turned it off! The Eagles are a great team, but I’m sure the Pats will put up their best fight. Would be nice not to fall behind early for once though!

    Also, I don’t believe in the “NFL is rigged” narrative, but the Pats definitely got some help from the officials. All the called penalties looked legit, but at least two obvious missed calls against the Pats, one a PI, the other a hold on that last run by Lewis.

    2. ALL calls that went against the JAGS were 100% legit in my eyes as
      I carefully looked at all of the replays. This despite some pundits saying otherwise.

  12. Last night on WEEI post game a woman from KC called and ranted about how the Patriots were cheaters, etc. and the fact that Brady had his right thumb taped up was a clear violation of NFL rules blah, blah, blah.

    I don’t listen to sports talk much like I used to but I never realized the such HATE..very sad to say the least. Her rant really got to me.

  13. Sports talk shows should give breatherlizer tests to callers. It is painful to have to listen to these alcohol fueled individuals try to talk when the hosts want to have a simple back-and-forth conversation about the game. 😉

      1. True, as depicted, probably more a wind driven snow than full fledged blizzard but I said it more for effect 🙂

  17. Need some help.

    I have people in the office driving to Hanover, NH tomorrow. Is this a freezing rain scenario for that area?

    1. Hanover New Hampshire? I think tomorrow it could start as light flurries then a changeover to rain but I haven’t looked at any data this afternoon. Maybe someone on a desktop can give you a better answer.

      1. Oh I see wxwatcher replied to you. Lmao. Why don’t people hit the reply button? I always think questions go unanswered when they’re not threaded.

  18. Longshot… I would expect slick travel in that area at least through midday tomorrow. They likely see a period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain this evening/early tonight. A lull after then but patchy freezing drizzle still possible overnight. Then likely another burst of freezing rain tomorrow morning before a change to rain.

    For SNE, the only real forecast concern I see for tomorrow are the winds. Not worried about excessive rain or mixed precip here. We will see winds of up to 60kts at 925mb. However, there looks to be a pretty stout low level inversion in place. I can recall a few events from recent months with comparable low level winds and weaker inversions which did not produce much in the way of high winds. We would definitely need convection to transport that down, and I’m not seeing much more than 200-300 joules of elevated CAPE. Tons of shear, but probably not enough instability for much but a broken band or two of heavy showers tomorrow afternoon. I think NWS can get away with not issuing a wind advisory in this case, but we’ll see what they do with the PM package. SPC maintains “general thunder” outlook for our region with a marginal severe risk well south over the mid-Atlantic.

    1. Funny, I just checked Twitter and the first post is from NWS Boston ~20 minutes ago mentioning that they’re considering wind advisories.

  19. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

    Maybe the long range outlook on today’s GFS op run can be somewhat explained by the long term outlook on the teleconnections today.

    Long term trend towards Positive PNA, big-time negative AO and towards a negative NAO. Negative AO = amplified pattern, positive PNA = western ridge, negative AO = possible high latitude blocking. Nice mix possibly for eastern US.

    2. Nice Tom and thanks.

      But again, those forecast are only as good as the model that produced them. 😀
      We shall see, but more encouraging than not, that’s for sure.

  20. watch out extreme northeast Mass ….

    Portsmouth, NH temp down 5F last 2 hrs.

    Its 26F in Portland, ME and 19F in Bangor.

    Not saying a flash freeze or even icing up, but northeast Mass temps could fall a few degrees this afternoon, before rising overnight.

  21. One of my predictions for the new year is a blizzard on the 6th/7th of February. Of course, my prediction was not based on anything other than a hunch.

    As for the NFL and that it’s somehow rigged against other teams. Please. The national commentators often feed into this narrative by hardly ever calling out teams that play the Patriots for boneheaded decisions. Romo is the exception. The Jaguars got outplayed when it mattered most. They were also outcoached badly by a vastly superior coaching staff. Terrible decision-making by the Jags down the stretch. For example, maybe there was a hold on the Lewis run that iced the game, but the fact that the Jaguars defense was not prepared for a run is totally inexcusable. The Patriots telegraphed run – Romo said it – and yet the defense set up as if Brady was going to pass. Another example is the extremely conservative playcalling on offense by the Jags. They gave the Patriots a chance by playing so conservatively on offense in the 4th and so poorly on defense (which is supposed to be their forte).

    Finally, people who think the Jags will be good next year only need to look at the Raiders this year to find out that this is not likely going to happen. Until NFL teams get serious about having brains among the coaching staff they will not succeed. This includes teams like the Cowboys (why they keep their headcoach is a real headscratcher), Steelers, Jaguars, and Falcons, to name a few.

    1. Nicely stated Joshua.

      The PATS do have SUPERIOR coaching, no doubt about that and very much related to that, they PLAY for the full 60 MINUTES.

    2. Disagree re: Jags next season. This team is here to stay. Teams with flash in the pan offenses are the ones who tend to disappear the next year. This defense is solid and built for the future as they mature (see Seattle Seahawks). A couple more pieces on offense and this team with be the Pats main competition in the AFC for the rest of Brady’s years.

      1. Disagree.
        They were 10-6 this year. Lost to the Titans twice, the Jets, Arizona. They’ll be 8-8, 9-7 next year at best.

  22. The EURO op run, which goes out to February 1st, does project a big chunk of arctic air building on this side of the northern hemisphere, up around the arctic circle.

  23. As Tom indicated, Portsmouth’s temperature keeps dropping.

    It is down to 29 now. I looked when Tom posted and it was 30 and Tom indicated
    it dropped 5 degrees to that point.

  24. Looking things over today. We may see a return to arctic sooner rather than later when we get into February. Wouldn’t be a huge surprise. The supply is there. When the atmosphere sets itself up to drop chunks of it southward, it can happen in a hurry. We are open to arctic attack starting on or after February 4 through mid month as it looks right now. Before that the pattern will run as expected.

        1. You mean if I wake up AFTER the 4th. Not possible!
          You see my ALARM is set for 9 AM on 2/4/2018.
          I’ll be up and refreshed and ready to go by game time. 😀

  25. Portsmouth back up to 30. Looks like the cold ran out of gas and
    stopped shortly after portsmouth. 😀

  26. I’ve been looking longer range as well today. I think we’ve got a pretty big weather battle brewing for February. Big picture pattern is fairly predictable the next 10 days or so. Lot of ridging in the East, storm track to the west giving us 2 or 3 mainly rain events with modest cold shots following, starting with the coming storm. Beyond then, we run into what I think are conflicting signals. It looks like a mean ridge will start to build off the West Coast. PNA turns back towards positive. Plenty of very cold air in Canada which looks like it wants to drop in (-AO) with troughing favored somewhere over the central/eastern US. However, the Southeast ridge also wants to set up shop and keep the cold bottled up more north and west of us. We’ve been battling that SE ridge most of the winter, but it’s been mainly a winning battle for the cold so far, which we expected (“front loaded winter”). It will not be so easy to push off the ridge this time. So it’s hard to say what wins. We’ve also got a wildcard in the MJO, with a fairly strong MJO pulse having developed and now translating its way across the tropics. It’s progged to reach phases 8 and 1 (cold/stormy phases for us) by around 2/10. If it has the amplitude that initial projections suggest, it could help tilt the scales towards colder/stormier for awhile.

    In sum, if I were making a February full-month outlook, I would call for slightly above normal temperatures (+1 to +3 for the month) and near normal precipitation and near normal snowfall based on the expectation for a warm start but a favorable window for colder/wintry weather ~2/10-2/20. SE Ridge returns in full thereafter and I think we get an early end to winter. Maybe not so in Northern New England, where we may see continued threats for mixed precip events.

  27. NWS did go ahead and pull the trigger on those wind advisories. They’re expecting gusts to 50mph along and SE of the BOS-PVD corridor. I think that’s probably a stretch. But we’ll see.

    1. Wind advisories and high wind watches/warnings seem to rarely verify. I equate them to very few locations meeting blizzard criteria when in a warning

    2. I think these advisories are a good idea. Unfortunately the majority of people misinterpret them and automatically assume their location will see the maximum potential wind, and then they call NWS out on unnecessary warnings. All it takes is one tree limb injuring someone and they take crap about not issuing something. Based on what I see, the advisory is warranted. But it’s just that, an advisory, advising that strong winds are possible in any area under it.

      People need to read and understand what advisories, watches, and warnings mean. I’d much rather have this agency issuing things for potential and have them not verify some of the time. There is something called uncertainty in forecasting, even in the short range. If I was on shift at NWS tonight, I’d have pulled the trigger too.

        1. If it doesn’t produce snow from time to time, it is a waste. Jimmy came up with that term here on the blog. 🙂

  30. As somebody who hates winter with every fiber of my being, I haven’t found this one to be too bad. The exception was the cold from just after Christmas to the first part of January. And the snow hasn’t hung around and annoyed me either. These melt downs have been awesome.
    5 weeks till March then we on the down hill slide to spring.

  31. 18z GFS maintains the theme for early February. Cold beginning around Feb 2 and continuing thru the end of the run. Also has a nice 36 hour long snow event Feb 2-3 although accumulations aren’t terribly significant.

  32. Judah Cohen’s Updated Blog:
    http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    Highlights:

    -The forecast for the troposphere is ridging for Alaska, Western Canada, the Western US, Greenland and much of the Arctic (Figure 13) with troughs in Eastern North America, Europe and East Asia (Figure 13). This pattern projects onto a negative AO and would favor cold temperatures in the Eastern US, Europe and East Asia with mild temperatures in western North America, Scandinavia and Western Asia (Figure 14). As I tweeted yesterday, the CFS has been consistent with this forecast for the past week. This forecast is consistent with the short range weather model forecasts and the ongoing disruption of the stratospheric PV. I am often skeptical of the CFS forecasts but I believe that more confidence in this forecast is warranted.

    -Persistence does get stronger at the end of the winter and I do believe that the predicted pattern of cold in eastern North America can last for much of February and even into March. Though as long as the WAFz remains active a period of milder weather is always possible.

    1. I agree with his assessment regarding the CFS. I have been paying close attention to this for a few weeks now and it has been very consistent.

      1. What do you think about his statement that the cold pattern could last the entire month and possibly into March?

        1. I’m not sure I agree there. It’s very tricky to pin down how long these larger scale shifts will hang on, but once we broke out of the persistent warm pattern last autumn, we have had trouble hanging onto things for great lengths of time. It’s definitely been colder overall, but with many changes. I think the core cold pattern will be good for approximately 2 weeks.

          1. Thanks TK. Obviously hoping the wintery pattern hangs on for longer after it returns but I know its a crapshoot trying to predict 4+ weeks out at this point.

  33. @ryanhanrahan · 2 hours ago

    Enjoy the January Thaw now… Euro Weeklies drop the hammer again weeks 3 and 4. February looks interesting. #nbcct

  34. TK, just finally got a chance to read your blog on Jan 1978…excellent writeup! I really have no memory of that time period or those weather events being only two years old at the time and growing up in Upstate NY.

    I had no idea how active the month preceding the blizzard was, or that nearly 3 feet of snow had fallen in 6 days near the middle of January. I cannot even imagine that impacts of the Feb blizzard if that huge warmup and rain storm had not happened in between. Talk about paralyzed!

  37. 8.2 earthquake off the coast of Alaska. 40 footers measured in the Pacific. tsunami warnings and watches up and down the West coast.

  38. 27 and freezing rain up here in NE mass….very slick to say the least, not expecting that this morning

  39. All tsunami watches/warnings have been cancelled. An advisory remains in effect for portions of Alaska with a small tsunami having been generated. The reports of 35-40 foot waves are erroneous. There was a buoy which reported a displacement in that range, but it appears to be a bad reading.

    Big earthquake, but USGS noting it as strike-slip faulting, which is not favored for tsunami production.

  40. Must have had yet a 2nd small scale low form on the warm front overnight.

    Around 10pm last night, it was 39F at Logan, the wind at the buoy had veered all the way to 90 degrees. ….

    Now, its back to 10 degree wind direction and the cold air drained all the way to Boston.

Comments are closed.