Monday Forecast

189 Comments

1:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Low pressure will develop and move northeastward along a frontal boundary offshore through early Tuesday. This will be a fast-moving wave of low pressure which will keep the bulk of its precipitation offshore, but not all of it, and a minor accumulating snow event will occur in southeastern MA. An upper level disturbance passes mainly south of the region Tuesday behind the departing low but may be close enough for a few snow showers. High pressure brings fair and cold weather for the final day of January on Wednesday. The next low pressure area will track north of the region Thursday and early Friday, dragging its warm front through the region Thursday and its cold front early Friday. This will not be a major event but will produce some light precipitation which may include some snow on Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Some morning sun possible north central MA and southern NH in the morning, otherwise cloudy. Late-day rain/snow arrives Cape Cod. Highs 34-49. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially southeastern areas by late in the day.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain to snow eastern part of Cape Cod and Nantucket, snow western part of Cape Cod through southeastern MA and a lighter period of snow RI up the I-95 corridor. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches from Plymouth MA to New Bedford MA eastward to the Mid Cape region with a slight chance of an isolated 3-5 inch amount in there, and a coating to 1 inch east of there and in the I-95 corridor. Lows 26-31. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Temperatures steady 26-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain/snow. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with mix/snow showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Temperatures starting out middle 30s to lower 40s, falling to the 20s by late.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Disturbances bring chance of snow or snow showers February 4 and 6 otherwise mainly dry and on the cold side.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Disturbances bring precipitation risks about every other day with temperatures near to below normal.

189 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    SREF just won’t let up. 3Z mean for boston 5.15 inches.

    GFS Kuchera

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018012906/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    NAM Kucehra

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018012906/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    3km NAM

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018012906/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    RDPS

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018012906/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    GDPS (CMC)

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018012900/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

  5. fwiw, the HRRR seems to be taking this system well off shore with minimal
    impact for Boston. Will continue to monitor. Rap a tad closer, but not much. Still minimal impact.

    1. I’m hearing….”Snow accumulation 1-3 inches from Plymouth MA to New Bedford MA eastward to the Mid Cape region with a slight chance of an isolated 3-5 inch amount in there, and a coating to 1 inch east of there and in the I-95 corridor.”

      😉

        2. Here is the tweat

          Notice the 3″ amount is not far from Boston. Afternoon model suite will be important indicator if the line pushes west or not. One piece of data I like has Boston in the 3-6″ zone. Keep that in mind if official forecasts change this afternoon.

    1. The HRRR actually shows a pretty decent shift to the East on the 12Z run
      compared to the 11Z run. That could be significant. Will monitor.

      1. Maybe that’s it he is pretty good . Said Boston is extremely close to 3-6 and he really liked it . I think Boston has a snow storm tonight

            1. JPD posted his tweet above. I suspect this will be a very minor event based on the model info posted by JPD. We shall see.

        2. Great! I was hoping that I would be able to drive away from the snow here in Kingston heading into Boston at 5am tomorrow morning.

  11. Observation:

    There is a decent NorthEast wind out there. I think if the temperature were
    lower, say in the teens or lower 20s, I believe there would be ample instability
    over the ocean to bring a decent ocean effect snow event to Eastern SNE.

    Thoughts? I do believe this is the set up Tom mentioned last week and was curious
    if there would be snow from it.

      1. Thank you for posting I didn’t want you all to think I was talking nonsense. I tell you he tweets to much . I’m new to Twitter .

  16. Looking ahead, the next opportunity for a SIGNIFICANT event, would be around
    or about Valentine’s Day. We shall see.

    3. Ugh. Would agree on all staff meetings. Specialized team meetings, however, are how a business stays on track. I can think of one or two in Washington who could learn that

  22. What precip batch on radar should we be watching ….

    1) Off shore echos
    2) Echos over northern Virginia/ DC area
    3) None … because what will fall over SE Mass will develop later this afternoon ….

      1. I don’t know Tk I’m feeling this is just going to over produce and it’s just gut . Cindy thinks well after midnight even towards am commute for Boston do you agree.

  25. kind of a fickled system today.
    not sure what to make of it. latest hrrr
    now wants to come just a tad closer.
    we shall see.

  27. My thoughts have not changed for this system. 1-3 for Boston and the South Shore, maybe some 4’s near the Canal. One inch amounts should go back to around the 95 belt, maybe a tad further.

    Meanwhile… I’ve made the trek back to Plymouth, NH for my final semester as an undergraduate. So I’ll mostly be reporting from here for the next few months 🙂

  28. 3 things that make me think tonight may UNDER-achieve ….

    1 and 2 are related :

    I look at the wind at the harbor buoy. Its direction is 030. Earlier today, it was 040. SO, very slowly, it is backing, which means its moving towards a direction that is more over land, which is not a moisture source. …. this leads to # 2 ……. the dewpoint depressions to the north-northeast are increasing, quickly. The dewpoint in Portland, ME is in the teens and its near or slightly over 2oF in Portsmouth, NH which means a ton of dry air in the boundary layer is being sent southward. This tends to cause the precip in light events to dry up before it hits the ground.

    #3 ….I got the idea yesterday in radar simulations, that the off shore precip was supposed to start building back to the northwest and I have seen no indication of this happening.

    1. Ironically, I do see on the radar a touch of what looks like ocean effect starting up on the south shore. Perhaps as the colder air arrives, its enough to create a bit more of a temp contrast and thus instability to develop over the ocean. Still, I think the dry air may have an effect on this as well.

          1. Except that it came roaring in from the ocean.
            Probably some frictional conversion along with a touch of orographic lift.

            1. True. Had about 15-20 mins of light to moderate snow and none of it stuck to anything, even to the grass. Temps are still a touch above freezing.

          1. Yup, echos shrinking almost to the point
            of disappearing altogether. NO replacement echos
            coming ashore. Weird. Conditions must have been good only briefly.

          2. Sorry. My quirky writing style. I meant over rather than down since it is just about due east of me. But it was curious. Just grew and then was nearly poof last I looked.

  39. Looking past tonight….

    The 12z GFS and 12z Euro are both advertising a couple inches of snow with the Friday system, a couple more inches with the Sunday-Mon AM (2/4-5) system and another storm developing on the east coast towards the middle of next week. GFS wants to keep it to our south and snow on the mid Atlantic while the Euro has accumulating snow here and several inches at the end of its run.

    Should be an interesting period as we precipitate/snow basically every other day. GFS keeps that pattern going and we get colder as we head into mid February.

    1. Yup, looking forward to that.

      I’d be happy with a bunch of light to moderate events. Keep the snow coming.

      1. What is your idea of light to moderate events? To me, in terms of accumulation, that’s >/=4″ for a light event up to ~8″ for moderate. I don’t see that in the cards.

        1. A light event is 1-3 inches, 2-4 inches. I would consider moderate 3-6, or 4-8. You were asking.

          I do see a number of light and “possibly” moderate.
          We’ll have to wait and see how each situation pans out.

          So far, I don’t see anything major, but one never knows.

  40. My son’s school already canceled a field trip they had scheduled for tomorrow. They were heading to the Cape so I am glad they took the cautious route and will re-schedule.

  42. Fairly steady light to moderate east wind. My annomometer (neighbors flag) has been out straight for a few hours.

  43. A look at the satellite loop does not display much that one wants to see if one is hoping for significant snow except maybe a very small portion of southeastern MA.

    The WWA for Plymouth County south is no surprise. That was an automatic.

  45. 1.8 is my number for Logan. Range of 1-3. Most falls between midnight and 6AM. Slow process. Several hours of light intensity snow. Minor system, but could certainly be a slow morning commute.

  49. Those dewpoint depressions, the difference between the temp and the dew point temp keep increasing and the corresponding relative humidities keep falling. Going to be tough for that precip to fall as anything other than virga, unless your in far, far southeast Mass or Cape Cod.

    1. The current relative humidity in Portland, ME and Portsmouth, NH are 46 and 40% respectively. And that’s advecting into our area.

    1. Boston averages about a foot of snow for the month of February. May very well struggle to get to normal if only minor events.

      1. If that GFS run verifies, Boston gets a foot of snow by Feb 14 and they do it with several light to moderate events.

  51. Here is the current composite radar display.

    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

    here is the base display

    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=BOX&loop=yes

    Humungous difference there!!

    I do not understand how a composite radar with echos that strong does not translate to the ground.

    I am under green echos on that composite but it ain’t doing diddly squat here at all.
    NOTHING but a good stiff NE wind. 😀

      1. That’s exactly what it is. All just depends on how high up you’re looking. In a case like this, you want to look as close to the ground as possible.

        I don’t look at the composite product all that much, but I will say I was a little taken aback at just how large the difference is in this case.

  53. Extremely dry air is working down from Maine. This is my reason for keeping the amounts on the lower side of the average amounts (eg., lower then NWS but a little bit).

  54. SAK had to travel by air this evening and he reported to me that taking off out of Logan they flew through a batch of snow in the 8,000 to 10,000 foot range over the North Shore of MA. This is an example of the dry air eating up the snow down below what is going on at mid levels.

  55. It’s a moderate mix in pembroke now and sticking . The temperature has also dropped . I’ll be heading into the city soon and will report from there where I’m still going with a couple of inches

        1. Actually the temp has only dropped 1 degree in Boston over the last 5 hours from 32 to 31.

            1. Temp at the nearest station has been either 34 or 35 for the last 6 hours there. So no fall yet. Just a wind increase.

    2. They may just make it… But there is a lot of low level drying to battle, and the temp is not going down that fast yet. It was 32 there 5 hours ago. It’s 31 now. Not what I would call a precipitous temperature drop. 😉

    1. The snow is making it more easily to the ground where the lower dewpoints have not penetrated.

  61. Tides looking to be an issue tomorrow morning. Keep an eye to those areas that are vulnerable to minor/moderate coastal flooding esp along coast south of Boston to cape north coast by Sandwich, etc. Boston high tide is around 9:41am.

  64. I’ve been under that band for 2 hours now and I have 0.1 inch only. That band is weakening and the focus is about to shift to southeastern MA with the next batch.

      1. I am not expecting a delay for Boston. Off the top of my head I can recall only an actual delay for BPS maybe once awhile back. They usually either have classes as usual or cancel entirely.

  70. Snowing pretty hard in Coventry CT. About an inch here so far, already more than I expected. Roads are covered.

  71. I’d guess close to 2 inches here. Will be curious to see how school is handled and surprised if no delay

  73. I didn’t think I would see any snow where I am but it is snowing right now. Numerous school delays in CT this morning and superintendents probably weren’t thinking they would have to make a decision about schools today.

    2. Some clue from NWS
      For much of the overnight, the
      precip was separated into two distinct bands the furthest W,
      with an area of deformation associated with a weak closed H7
      low. While the further E was associated with the H92-H85 LLJ
      convergence. These two have finally joined forces as the H7 low
      shifted E and is now a focused f-gen band across mainly SE MA
      and RI.

  78. As an old friend of mine used to say: “It’s Snowing like cuckoo birds!!”

    And it is. quite heavy snow here. Certainly moderate, borderline heavy.

  79. Storm surge right now in Boston is about 2 feet, if that stays as is high tide in Boston will be a little over a foot above flood stage mid morning with maybe a little more south of the city towards your area Tom.

  83. It’s all mostly on track. The midnight-6AM idea for the bulk of the accumulation has been a good one, although that will extend another couple hours in some areas. It took some time to get things “primed’ due to dry air, but that was no surprise. Totals look to generally be in the 2-4″ range, a bit of an overachiever in general in terms of bringing more snow farther west and getting some 4-5” amounts in some places.

  85. It appears that Dave Epstein’s tweet yesterday was legit after all. My respect for him has been restored.

  88. Matt, I saw your link above: if I was still on FB I would give it an angry face. Don’t know how to do it here. Thank you for sharing – the situation is disgusting.

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