A Top 10 Day

64 Comments

2:09AM

After some wet and rather cool August weather, the low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather has departed. This will lead to a sunny and warmer Wednesday, the pick of the week, a top 10 day, as high pressure builds overhead. This sunny interlude won’t last, however, as the next system will be approaching from the west, bringing clouds in during Thursday, and a shower/thunderstorm threat for Friday. This front washes out near us over the weekend and high pressure starts to build off the East Coast. This means that even though an isolated shower or storm is possible at some point during the weekend, generally rain-free, warm, and more humid weather is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 60-65. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 78-83. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 83.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

64 thoughts on “A Top 10 Day”

  1. Beautiful morning!

    TK – I voted for you and then I voted for Mauzy’s “Talking Reality”. (hope that’s right!)

  2. I could not agree with you more on that TK since this will be a top 10 day and a much deserved one.
    Thunderstorm Index for Friday and Saturday just at a 1 since I don’t think there will be severe weather at this time.
    Two tropical waves in the Atlantic. If the one in the Carribbean develops it looks like it will go into Central America and the other wave plenty of time to watch that. Next two names on the list Harvey and Irene.

  3. Not only today but tomorrow should be a Top-10 day as well! Thereafter, it looks quite unsettled into early next week. Too bad cold fronts nowadays slooow down so much. Back in the Don Kent days they moved right along bringing in that nice Summer Polar Air. We can get online or in touch with another human being within seconds but takes 48-72+ hours for a lousy cold front to come through. Such is “progress” I guess.

    TK, I voted for you and I am still not impressed with any tropical potential as yet…maybe a couple weeks quite a different story. I still believe September will be our month. We will see. 🙂

  4. TK forgot to mention in my post I did vote for you.
    Philip will see what happens with the tropics. To me the prime time for tropical development is between August 20th and October 20th and as I believe Old Salty said yesterday we are overdue for landfalling hurricane in the U.S. since we have not had one since 2008. I just hope a tropical depression or storm could move into Texas and give that state a good soaking.

  5. So we are now about 30 days away from low fall foliage color in Northern New England (in general). In central and southern area’s we are about 45 days from low foliage color.

    Boy does time fly!

    I for one love the fall, I usually head out west on rte 2 for apple picking in Harvard, then continue west to the Yankee Candle Factory in Deerfield. We generally make this trip around Columbus Day Weekend, but not on it. Too busy during the holiday weekend. Then during the third week of October we head up to Keene for a weekend of camping and a trip to the Pumpkin Festival. Some years its about past peak there and then there are years when its peak. We camp in tents and the lowest temp we’ve experienced was 27 – 28 degrees. It’s pretty chilly but if you have a air mattress and plenty of blankets, its one of the best nights sleep I get.

  6. So we are now about 30 days away from low fall foliage color in Northern New England (in general). In central and southern area’s we are about 45 days from low foliage color.

    Boy does time fly!

    I for one love the fall, I usually head out west on rte 2 for apple picking in Harvard, then continue west to the Yankee Candle Factory in Deerfield. We generally make this trip around Columbus Day Weekend, but not on it. Too busy during the holiday weekend. Then during the third week of October we head up to Keene for a weekend of camping and a trip to the Pumpkin Festival. Some years its about past peak there and then there are years when its peak. We camp in tents and the lowest temp we’ve experienced was 27 – 28 degrees. It’s pretty chilly but if you have a air mattress and plenty of blankets, its one of the best nights sleep I get.

  7. Hey Coastal…. I love fall just like you do. I enjoy the cool crisp days and the wonderful display of colors.
    I just saw Brett Anderson’s blog and it is calling for normal temps and precipitation for fall and for winter it is calling for normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions. One thing I am noticing for the winter predictions is that this does not look to be a particularly cold winter for the Northeast and hopefully that pans out and give us a break with heating our homes.

  8. Got my vote too, TK…..from the state of Maine no less where I finally found internet connection. Beautiful day going up here too. Interesting, the 7 day outlook for Portland, ME has a high of 68F next Monday after showers Sunday. Must be a cool shot coming for northern New England next week, or at leastsomeone up here thinks so.

  9. TK, got my vote as well.

    RE: the tropical system we have been monitoring
    Doesn’t look that strong. Sure doesn’t look like a hurricane at this point:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F17%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=228&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  12. Btw, I find these model projections very interesting. Please, if anyone finds them
    useless, I’ll stop posting the links.

    Have a great day and it is a beauty!

    1. Old Salty – although I don’t quite understand these model projections, please continue posting them. If I take some time and really look at them I can figure them out – a little! 🙂 But they are informative and those like me who don’t totally understand them can learn from them. So I hope you continue posting them.

      This is a real gem of a day – hope everyone is enjoying it.

    2. I post them too, and when we get to winter storms, others will probably be posting model runs as well.

    3. I’ll echo what rainshine said – I dont really understand them but think the more I look the more I may. Also perhaps the more I look the better the weather I can wish for here in the next two weeks 🙂 I dont mind rainy days at the beach we’ll have one grandchild each week – along with parents – and it’s never fun for parents or child being at the beach for a string of rainy days.

  13. Thanks all.

    With these model runs, there does appear to be a trend that something “may” happen, it is just not clear how strong the system will be, if any, and it is not clear where it will go, although the consensus is that whatever there is will head towards the SE coast of Florida and then be in a position to “possibly” head up the coast.

    We just need to keep watching for now.

  14. JimmyJames – btw – welcome back from vacation. Hope you enjoyed it. I wasn’t on for a few days- both my husband and mother weren’t feeling well – both better now.

    And I am at the point of not wanting to let summer go just yet but really looking forward to fall. Give me another week or 2 and I’ll be ready to say good-bye to summer ’til next year! The days will be shorter but I will be loving the frosty, crisp days and nights and the colorful foliage. I wonder how that will turn out this year.

  15. TK- I just voted for your friend. Thank’s for responding to my question. As I scrolled down the blog real quick tonight, one of the bloggers made mention to a warm winter. Tk is It really hard to get a snowless winter, and when that happens would that be considered a rare event. It feels funny asking questions on this winter, but It really will be here soon.

    1. I think based on ENSO forecasts, etc., we could see winter turn out warm but not without a cold beginning.

  16. Rainshine, not to worry. As far as I am concerned the month of September is for all practical purposes still a “summer” month even though Labor Day Weekend is considered the “unofficial” end of summer. For me, Columbus Day Weekend and beyond begins the real serious fall “chill” and the end of HHH temps.

    I could enjoy summer a bit more if cold fronts would just push on through and not just sag across the area, like this weekend for example.

  17. International Space Station visible tonight!

    Appears low in the west at 8:27PM, highest pass near the Big Dipper in the north at 8:30PM, and disappears into Earth Shadow in the northeast sky at 8:33PM.

  18. As I said earlier from the winter from everything that I am looking at the cold should not be too bad this winter and I would not be surprised if it turns out slightly above average.
    As for snowfall as I said the other day when I returned from vacation I don’t see anymore than 50 inches for Boston. For the record the Almanac saying above normal temperatures for us but at least gives us snowlovers hope with two good size storms between the 20th-23rd of Feb. and 4th -7th of March. Will see just like their prediction for many areas hitting the 100 degree mark between the 24th-27th of this month.

  20. Can’t wait till the winter and those model runs get posted. I hope we have some good ones to track this winter and hopefully some will deliver a good dumping of snow.

  21. The thing to keep in mind about winter is cycles and many thought last year would be easy and look at how it turned out. IMO way to early to give an indication of what we are in for, need to see where la Nina is, what the teleconnections are etc.,, before feeling any type of confidence.

  22. The thinking right now and of course this could change is if there is going to be a La Nina it would be on the weak side.
    No change with the thunderstorm index as that will remain at 1 for Friday and Saturday. I just read the NWS discussion for thunderstorm development and its interesting but too far out to give an impact and as always the timing of the front will be key and the models as usual all over the place.

  26. Very interesting Old Salty. Will see what happens. Hopefully it will curve out to sea because once these tropical systems hit the Gulf there going to hit land. 80% chance of the wave in the Carribbean developing. Its a small wave and won’t have too much time develop should it become a tropical storm. Its expected to track into Central America and that will rip whatever this becomes apart. So even if this is named I don’t see it becoming a hurricane.

  27. JJ,

    yes, the 80% should travel to the West and won’t affect US.
    It is that other one, that is currently 10% to become a tropical system in the next
    48 hours that the models are picking up on. According to the National Hurricane Center:

    A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
    ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT
    DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    HOWEVER…ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
    DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10
    PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
    AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

    This is the one that all of those models are picking up. Some develop it more than others. But clearly the trend has been there, so it must be watched.

    This is just like tracking the Winter snow storms.

    Let’s hope it does not develop or if it does, it stays relatively weak.

    Have a great day all.

  28. I feel like we have been tracking this wave for a week even though it has not ben that long. Its a good size cirrculation but that dry air from dust storms in Africa has been preventing this from really developing. The models still developing this and plenty of warm water to work with as it tracks off to the west and as you said this must be watched.

  29. AccuWeather met Paul Pastelok is also calling for early-season snow just like TK is so we will see what happens there.

    Now Henry Margusity is actually telling those from Florida to the Carolinas to now be prepared for hurricane and/or strong tropical storm conditions late next week. He believes that the future “Harvey” or “Irene” will track up the east coast just like Donna did back in 1960. Once Donna came to N.E. it passed over or just to the east of Worcester. I believe it was the only hurricane to affect N.E. during the 1960’s.

    If it was anyone but Henry, I could take this more seriously BUT let’s see what happens over the upcoming weekend and early next week.

    1. I miss Joe Bastardi at AccuWeather. The fall map from AccuWeather I looked at yesterday it has New England in the warm and dry area. The Euro model that Brett Anderson’s uses in his blog calls for normal temperatures and normal precipitation for the fall.
      Too early to say where that wave will go but its one to watch and were going to be doing that for a while. Will see if Henry is putting on his Big Daddy hat next week.

  30. I remember Donna well. Yes, I am that old.

    I was living in Millis at the time and even at that inland location,
    did that wind ever HOWL! Missed a week of school with power outages and downed
    trees and limbs. What a mess. Don’t need anything like that again.

    All of the models are catching something with this. It is still a long ways off and of course anything can happen. Looking forward to today’s 12Z runs. If no one else does so, I will post 12Z GFS, GEM and ECMWF maps around or about 2PMish.

    1. I also remember Donna. My mom had gone into Boston to a doctor appointment and my dad needed to go get her so I had to go also. I thought it was great because I got to take our old baby bassinet that I used for my dolls in the car. I remember Carol and Edna too. We were stuck at Humarock. My dad had headed to Boston for work, my mom didn’t drive and he left saying it was only in NC so he’d be back in plenty of time. I remember water coming into the cottage. Sad to say I think even that young I thought it was an adventure.

  32. 12Z GFS

    Between Cuba and Florida:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20110818%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=204&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=08%2F18%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=26&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    Then, later, in New England:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20110818%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=204&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=08%2F18%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=26&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  33. My Bad.

    Here it is in New England:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20110818%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=204&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=08%2F18%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=26&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  34. Having a bad day. Shall I try again?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20110818%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=264&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=08%2F18%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

      1. I know that when tropical systems become extra-tropical, there tight powerful wind field becomes larger and weakens.

  37. Coastal, if that were to completely verify, most of the worst conditions would be northwest of the city, but the city itself would also see some good rains as well.

  40. Either the ECMWF has just temporarily lost it, or it is onto something and perhaps
    there will be NO significant system. We can only hope. Time will tell.

  41. Thanks Coastal.

    Was not memorable for me. I swear I don’t remember a thing about Hanna at all.
    In my mind it never existed. Must have been just a routine rainstorm around here?

    Do you remember the conditions?

    Many thanks

  42. Not exactly, I was married in September 2008 and I remember it being a very wet month. Hanna was at the beginning of the month and Kyle was around my wedding day. I remember route 53 in Norwell was a lake while trying to run errands the day before.

  45. I’m trying to understand all of the links and apologize that I cannot seem to figure out enough to avoid asking questions. So what does this mean for the south coast later this week or into the following? And do we need to think about doing a little hurricane prep at home before we leave just in case. I am thinking I’m probably getting way ahead of myself but I always figure better to be safe than sorry.

  46. Vicki… Ask as many questions as you need. There is no limit to comments on this blog.

    And for anyone who posts and gets a message that the comment is awaiting approval (or whatever it says), please be patient. It does that sometimes.

    And finally… I am writing a fresh blog now that should be updated by 4PM. I apologize for the delay in updating today.

  47. Vicki,

    First, I think TK has done a great job to make sure that people on this site are not
    going to be jerks. Therefore, please don’t be afraid to ask any questions at all.
    We’ll all do the best we can to answer and If we are incorrect or not accurate, you
    have TK to jump in.

    Next, yes, Personally I think you are getting a bit ahead of yourself. I’d at least wait until this thing develops into a hurricane, if it even ever does, and even then look at what the model projections are.

    Hope this helps.

    Just my thougts of course. Others may have different thoughts.

  48. Returned to Marshfield to a couple big cumulus clouds, one that even deposited a brief shower.

    Very nice tropical discusiion above. Interesting days ahead watching. If anything hits sometime during the week of Aug. 29 – Sept. 4, there is a new moon at perigee that week with extremely high astronomical tides.

  49. I like to think we can discuss weather here, agree or disagree cleanly and politely. I have faith in all of my blog readers and know you can abide by those simple social rules enforced only by the honor system, unless someone gets real nasty. Then you know what happens. 😉

    An area of built-up cumulus moved through from the west southwest dropping a rain shower on my area early in the 3PM hour. It was enough to wet the ground but since then it’s all dried up and we have filtered sun with lots of high cloudiness. The heavier cumulus have pushed away to the east and northeast, and have encountered a seabreeze boundary over Cape Ann, resulting in development of a heavier shower there. Another downpour is wandering across north central MA, and a line of showers and storms is approaching the Berkshires from NY. All of this activity should taper and dissipate as the sun begins to sink – something that is happening three quarters of an hour sooner than just over 1 month ago.

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