Tuesday Forecast

165 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
Always fun watching systems evolve and put more snow where you said less, or less snow where you said more, or both. Regardless, snowy morning, improvement this afternoon, and the active pattern sends the next event in here Thursday and early Friday in the form of a cold front. A significant shot of cold air awaits for the start of the weekend.
TODAY: Overcast with additional snow of 1/2 to 2 inches (1-4 total with isolated heavier) this morning. Breaking clouds this afternoon. Temperatures steady 26-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH. Minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide this morning.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain/snow. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with mix/snow showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Temperatures starting out middle 30s to lower 40s, falling to the 20s by late.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Disturbances bring chance of snow or snow showers February 4, 6, and 8. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Active pattern with a couple more disturbances bringing precipitation chances. Temperatures near to below normal.

165 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK. Will repeat what I just posted on previous blog. Snowing lightly here in Sudbury with about 2 inches of snow.

  3. And reposting to Matt – thank you for sharing your link re: Alaska. The situation makes me disgusted.

    1. I know people that work up there, its a pristine estuary system, that creates millions in revenue for Hunters, Aquaculture, marine reserves, Tourism, and Fishing. All of whom would be effected negetively for the benifit of a rich greedy ___ who says it will create about 200 jobs.

  4. Thank you, TK

    Closing on four inches in Sutton and still snowing. My road not touched yet which surprises me. There is a two hour delay but it is close to,high school pickup time.

      1. And…they just changed to a cancellation. I swear the administration actually wants to lose their jobs. The buses should already be on the road.

        1. I thought it should have been cancelled to begin with in view of the increased amounts. My daughter was not sending her son. My SIL drove Sutton to Wellesley on back roads and it has taken two hours for him to just arrive as opposed to one. My other SIL went highway Uxbridge to Ashland and it took the normal 35 minutes. Highways are clear. Side roads not so much. Uxbridge did not cancel and daughter’s side road yet to be plowed but she is on corner of a main road that is plowed.

          It is highly unusual for my area not to be plowed by this time. I’m wondering if the focus is on your area which is more hilly and windy and others will fall place.

          I absolutely agree with the change from delay to cancellation and will never second guess a call again.

              1. The call said the cancellation was due to the changed forecast. I think in this case, they rightfully went with the forecast and then realized there was an error in it and acted quickly and accordingly. I learned last week that it is difficult to understand the very changing dynamics in this town.

  7. Thanks TK
    Closing in on an inch where I am which to me is a bonus as last night it looked at best there would be a coating of snow for my area.

    1. Logan Sucks!!! I think the observer (Or automated device) is on crack cocaine.

      I measured precisely 3 inches on the nose at 7:30 AM in JP.

      My car is in the shop so I had to take the T to the office.
      Walked 6/10 mile to the Orange line, took it 3 stops and walked another
      1/2 mile or more to the office.

      The whole time the visibility varied from 3/4 mile down to 1/2 mile.

      Now at the office and vis is about 2/3 mile. Can barely make out Mission Church in the distance. I will say only about 2 1/2 inches at the office.
      JP must of caught more of that Western Band before things moved Eastward.

      I should have known something was up last night after watching Eric.
      As I posted previously, He said the storm was too far off shore to give us
      any decent snow and that the snow that was falling was due to an
      interaction with an upper low to the West. Additionally, he had coating
      to 2 inches for Boston and points West and then said areas under the band could get 3 inches and changed the amounts on the fly to a coating to 3 inches.
      Eric should have just gone to 2-4 or even 2-5 inches.

      I actually did mention to my wife that with the way the bands were setting up
      that we were likely to get more snow than advertised.

      In any case, this system was an OVER ACHIEVE no matter how you slice it.
      Not much doubt about that.

      As I finish typing I See visibility is up some now to about 1 mile or so.

      Haven’t checked radar yet, but I am guessing we are begining the wind down
      phase. 😀

      I sure hope someone in the know can explain exactly why this system over achieved? I am Most curious to know and learn.

  9. Thanks TK

    2.5” and schools cancelled here in Coventry Ct. Reports coming in now of 6-8” in northeast CT and NW RI! I honestly wasn’t expecting more than a costing here. An overachiever for sure in most areas.

  10. Southeastern parts of CT did very well as well with some places getting close to half a foot. The storm back on the 17th of this month underachieved while this one overachieved.

  12. NWS forecast has changed considerably:

    1. 2-4″ for Boston today (look out window) 😉

    2. Snow begins Saturday night continues into Monday (before it was to begin not until Sunday night)

    1. Hey, it sure as hell looked like you were right on track, Until….:D

      Waiting to hear exactly what that Until… was.

      I do believe Eric Fisher strongly hinted at the problem, namely interaction
      of Off shore system with upper level disturbance to the West. (NWS said it
      was a 700mb closed low)

      I do believe this is the culprit.

      Nice closed 700mb low with strong vertical velocities

      https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2018013005/full/vvel_700_f01.png

      https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2018013005/full/vvel_700_f05.png

        1. I would agree with that with one proviso: If forecasters take it to heart, process it and remember it. 😀
          when analyzing the situation, check ALL egos at the door
          and make it a learning experience.

          The bigger question would be: Can any adjustments be made to the models to handle a situation like this better.

      2. That 700 mb low must be passing overhead. It is helping to reinvigorate the snow over the south shore. We are getting continuous moderate to heavy snow.

          1. 10AM

            https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2018013012/full/vvel_700_f03.png

            11 AM

            https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2018013012/full/vvel_700_f04.png

            Noon

            https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2018013012/full/vvel_700_f05.png

            I would think this would keep the snow
            going until NOON, even if a bit lighter.

            Latest radar loop looks to bring heavier snow back into the city. Will post if it does. 😀

            https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

  17. Visibility hovering between 2/3 and 1 mile. That will still allow a modest accumulation rate of something like 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour or thereabouts.

    Virtually certain to hit the 4 inch mark at my house in JP.

    That would bring the season total in JP to “approximately” 34 inches

      2. Absolutely a joke and bad call on pembroke this morning Tom folks are not happy with no delay or cancel.

          1. Big No Tom . The town is outraged because I guess they dropped the ball on plowing as well . So bad she put children and parents in Harms way today .

  19. Not much where I am in Woburn…streets are mostly to the pavement and a dusting on cars…can still see tops of grass.

  20. It was the 700mb low. It’s the bane of my existence and the most common cause of my not so great forecasts.

    2. I don’t remember very many of your not so great forecasts.

      Thank you for confirming the reason. I thought it was that, but nice
      to know for sure.

      Onto the “Cleveland”. 😀

  21. Everybody blew it with amounts out my way.

    Last night at 10 when I went to bed Harvey still had us in a coating to 1″. Closing in on 4″.

    No one went out and got the plows going early until it was too late.
    One would think by 10 pm there would have been some hint this was going to be bigger than forecast earlier.
    I left for work at my usual 5:30 am and it still took 2.5 hours to go 45 miles.

    2. At 10 pm here we had a coating. I had expected it to be about that. At 3:30 we had maybe two inches and I was still thinking the forecast would verify. Son was here last night and left for Boston at 4:45 and said it was commute as usual. SIL went pike to Ashland with no problem, but he leaves earlier than you also.

      1. I made it that far just fine. My house to the Frame was usual time. It was past route 30 that got bogged down.

        1. I suspect it was because you left Just a bit later than my son. He said all the way to Boston was not a problem

  23. Right now, visibility defies the radar. Sitting under green echos, yet the snow is the lightest it has been. Vis up over a mile to 1 1/2 to perhaps even 2 miles.

  24. Some really good comments here. There is absolutely no perfect science, especially when it comes to meteorology. If nothing else, those of us on here should all know that. So, Dr. Stupid, I think you are right. I truly believe that every one of the mets learns from these situations. I also know they beat themselves up, and that is completely unnecessary. Each one takes his or her job very seriously and tries to do the very best he or she can. New England is not an easy area.

    There is absolutely no reason for a layman to find fault with a forecast. Folks who are reasonable understand that it is far from a perfect science. Folks who want to criticize…..well, that is something they apparently never learn from as it is their nature and I feel badly for them.

    TK, how long have we been on this blog??? In all of those years, how many of your forecasts have been (to quote you) “not so great.” Please focus on the vast amount that have been spot on. You clearly have already figure this exception out. Not one of us is perfect. Not one of us escapes making an error (or many) in our chosen profession. It is the ones who are upset by the errors whom I admire most. How else do we learn?

  26. This is what I posted Sunday night on Facebook, “coating to 2 inches along I95, south and east. Pockets of 2-5 across portions of southeast Massachusetts to the Cape cod Canal. Lessor amounts outer cape. Not a big event.”
    I think I was rather accurate two days out lol.

  27. Ok, winding down pretty quickly now.
    It was fun while it lasted. Love over-achieving systems.

    Onto the next one. Let’s see if that one can over-achieve. 😀

  28. As a long time met told me today…

    Even the best of us blew the details on this one. If you got it right in more than half the region, you got lucky. If you claim to have had it pegged from the start, you’re a liar. 😉

    2. That is fair from I see now. Thank you for sharing that.

      This blog continues to amaze me.

      I want to thank you yet again TK for all that you do!!!

  29. Annoyed with myself on the forecast, as probably all local mets are this morning… been saying for days on end not to write this one off, but still way under-forecast for the 95 belt. Too much trust in the models which were just wrong, all of them. Ugh. Onto the next though. Getting into a rapid fire pattern of small-ish disturbances.

    1. To be fair WxWatcher, you kept saying it would be more than modeled.
      Don’t be so harsh on yourself. You did well.

      btw, IF by smallish, you means systems like this then I am all for it.
      Bring it on. 😀

      1. 🙂

        It’s definitely the kind of pattern that can produce surprises like this, and a difficult pattern to forecast for. No “big” storms, but as we see a poorly forecast 4-6″ will have more impact than a well forecast 12″+.

    1. Sky is brightening as well. Only the lightest of snow falling.
      vis probably greater than 5 miles. Just about totally done.

  32. So it looks like it cut off too quickly to make 5 inches at home.

    I’ll measure later, but I’d guess we came in at right around 4 inches, perhaps
    a tenth or two beyond that, but probably no more. We shall see.

    Curious to see accumulation reports as they come in.

  35. About 6 inches in Halifax and the roads were atrocious driving into work. Very surprised that Silver Lake district only had a 2 hour delay and did not cancel.

  36. Forecasters falling on their swords this morning across the dial. Confidence outlook from regular people who expect perfection is low. haha.

  37. Right now 2/6 intrigues me. Wouldn’t it be something to get a storm on
    the anniversary of the Blizzard of 78????

  38. I’m not sure its perfection people want. I think some of you don’t give enough credit to the regular Joe on the street.

    What people cant understand, and frankly me either, is why 6 hours or so before the start of needing to get equipment out to deal with it there wasn’t a heads up.
    DPW’s needed to know by 4 am or so this was going to need attention. At 11 pm, it still was advertised as a light event most places.

    1. They missed this one. It happens. The reason was explained above.
      As long as it doesn’t happen with each and everyone, then it’s ok.

      1. My older daughter in Uxbridge said that many towns (Uxbridge is one as was Framingham) outsource plowing. Last night they did not arrange for the outsourced plows due to forecast.

        TK, you are correct that people expect perfection. They also expect there to be absolutely no interference with their routine which of course is ridiculous. We are dealing with a lot of unknowns.

        It is when folks depend on the meteorologist or the school system or anyone else to make decisions for them that the complaints begin to pile up. Every parent has an option to put a child on a bus. Every adult has the option to wait until roads are cleared to head to work. Personal responsibility is sorely lacking.

        Uxbridge did not call school or delay. As it turned out the town sent out an apology. Their communication system went down. They are meeting today with all involved, including but not limited to fire and police, to institute a backup system. My oldest kept her kids home. Last week my youngest kept her kids home.

        I don’t get blaming others for something that is ultimately an individual decision. Maybe that is harsh, but I’m old enough to have learned that a long while ago.

    3. The problem is dependant on each school districts protocols, which failed for many communities this morning. There is a reason why some towns wait to 5 or 6 to make the call, but I feel they did not use that time wisely. The superintendents should have used common sense this morning. They should have checked the radar and looked out the window to see if the storm was acting the way it was forecasted.

      2. A car with two duxbury students hit a telephone pole this morning. Both injured and taken to hospital.

      3. High School kids in Duxbury will not miss a day of school if it is not closed district wide. The pressure on these kids to perform is huge and missing a test is simply not an option.

        They dismissed teachers and students that live in two sections of town do to flooding. This was surprising because the flooding was occurring as they were heading into to school.

        1. Rte. 3 south in the Kingston area was horrible around 8am, and the secondary roads were even worse. Not a day for school buses to be out and about – at least on the south shore.

    1. Looks like the day after Thursday.

      Seriously a couple of inches or so. Could be 1, could be 4. We shall see.
      We probably won’t know until it happens. 😀

      1. And I just got off the phone with family from PA and they’re having an Eagles cake and chocolate in the shape of an eagle.

      2. Nothing special here. Our tradition is to order pizza either
        after or before the game depending on kick off time. This applies to ALL games, not just the Super Bowl. 😀

  43. 12Z Euro NOT impressed with anything for Thursday night/Friday AM.
    Perhaps squeeze out an inch, if we are lucky.

    Euro likes 2/5, BUT keeps it mostly off shore. If we can make that one of those
    systems that trends West, could be most interesting. Else a graze with 1-3 or 2-4 or some such amount, more or less. 😀

    And 2/8 another off shore system. Need it to trend West.

  44. Nothing special here. Our tradition is to order pizza either
    after or before the game depending on kick off time. This applies to ALL games, not just the Super Bowl. 😀

  46. The late week systems remains unimpressive to me. There was some bad early modeling on that which was way too amped up. All I see for SNE at this point are rain/snow showers with minimal accumulation at best.

    2/4-2/5 bears watching. Far enough out for a lot of uncertainty there, but I think that’s the next chance of meaningful accumulating snow.

    1. I think you are correct, barring any surprises come Thursday night. 😀

      Would be REALLY NICE to have an impactful snow storm on 2/5. Enough to
      close my office. Now you’re talking. Please make it so.

  47. re: U.S. Bank Stadium

    This is the best I could locate as to indoor temperatures:

    When members of the Minnesota Sports Facilities Authority (MSFA), the state agency developing the U.S. Bank Stadium, toured retractable-roof facilities before embarking on the project, they often heard from stadium operators that attendees preferred the roof be closed for optimal comfort. “It’s that 70-degree temperature that people shoot for,” says MSFA chair Michele Kelm-Helgen. A retractable roof can add upward of $100 million to construction costs, she says, but most open up fewer than five times per year. “HKS convinced us that the equivalent of a retractable roof was ETFE,” she says. “It’s the largest such span in North America, and in combination with that [nearly 300-foot] glass wall, you’re going to feel like you’re outside.”

    Looks like 70 Degrees is it.

    1. Thanks. I can remember hockey games at the old Garden where the warm air temps and cold ice would create a fog.

  48. Based on what happened this morning, I don’t think we should dismiss any upcoming system including the Thursday-Friday event (until TK gives the “all clear” so to speak). 😉

  49. Well I guess RI made up for getting gypped in the “snow hole” storm a few years ago. 😉

  53. For the record, we didn’t even make 1 inch in Woburn and I spent hours under that band when it first formed – that was the difference between the dry air before and after it was overcome.

    1. Unless I was reading the radar incorrectly, we had what appeared to be snow over us for a couple of hours before it began to fall also. I had mentioned that in last night’s blog. Or was I not seeing it correctly?

      1. Vicki, If you go back to yesterday’s blog and look
        for a couple of posts I made comparing the composite radar
        displays with the base displays.

        The composite shows echoes for all different radar elevations combined. So if the base shows nothing or very light echos
        and the composite shows heavy echos then one can deduce
        that DRY AIR is eating up the snow prior to reaching the surface.

        There were some pretty dramatic displays that depicted this
        phenomenon.

        1. Oh crap, those are likely gone as they were live links.
          I think if you go back, you’ll see whatever is going on now.

          I don’t think I did screen shots. Sorry, but I think
          you get the idea.

          1. Thank you OS. I do get the idea. I had seen them but couldn’t get them to open. But at same time you posted them was when I noticed a large blue area directly over me and this area yet no snow to be seen. I’m thinking that is what you mean. Just wasn’t getting to ground. Does that make sense?

      1. Although indirectly he did by mentioning the rising air.
        The 700 mb clearly showed nice vertical velocities.

  55. I paid a 14 yo kid down the street to shovel. I couldn’t stomach going home tonight and doing it in the dark after being at work all day.

  56. Good plan and I’m sure 14 yo liked it. My SIL did a quick shovel before work but what fell after that is mostly melted.

  57. I think the difference in snow at Logan vs Jamaica Plain is legitimate.

    This time not due to ocean warmth, but due to the nearby proximity of where the boundary level dry air had a big impact vs where it had a smaller impact. That dividing line literally was around the Boston area.

  58. Some other observations …..

    Interesting to see the Obs and where it stopped snowing today, the dry air moderated a bit to near or slightly over 32F. In contrast in far SE Mass where it’s still snowing, the temp is cooled to the wet bulb, where you find mostly 20s.

    The big storm on the 4th that had much wetter snow created huge snow plow piles. We received more snow today and the piles are tiny. I’ve always enjoyed seeing that difference in wet snow vs dry snow.

    1. Yup interesting day. Fascinating to be sure. 😀

      Can’t wait for the next one to see what tricks Mother Nature has planned
      for us.

  59. I did find something on Netflix that I truly like and that
    was the show Travelers.

    My wife enjoys Letterman and we both are enjoying Anne with an “e”.

    We’ll get to more, sooner or later.

    I also ordered and have now received an internet Web Cam with Weather Underground. I have yet to install it. I think I have a location.
    Can’t wait to get that going. 😀

  60. Do you think the masses would have been as upset had today been a rain event and the forecasts were off by a few tenths of an inch? 😉

  63. There is a video showing a school bus involved in an accident in Whitman this morning. Several children suffered head injuries and were taken to local hospitals.

    1. Yup & some kids went into a pole in Duxbury. Should have been no school bunch of wimps afraid to call it of . The biggest wimp is the one in pembroke who didn’t even call a delay putting children & parents in harms way .

      1. Wait a sec. People call them wimps when they call it for a minor event. How can they be wimps when they are afraid to call it for a moderate event?

        The truth is, they were not “afraid”, just simply caught off-guard this time. I don’t think reality set in until it was too late to call it as the school commute was in progress.

  64. Just wanted to say that this has been a really nice winter thus far. So many crisp, sunny days. We’ve had some snow and some rain. Some bitter cold, some normal cold, and some unseasonably mild. A bit of everything, but not too much of anything. I took my daily run at around 3pm today. The freshly fallen blanket of snow (about 2 inches where I live) looked great, as did the Charles river which is still mostly frozen.

        1. I don’t think the weather has a lot to do with the flu cases, at least not as much as society gives it credit for.

          The vaccine was not very effective this year.

  65. 0z GFS and 0z CMC both have a decent sized hit with the coastal storm Monday. As modeled verbatim, there are ptype issues with both, especially the GFS where many areas flip to rain for awhile. CMC keeps all but SE areas snow throughout. 6″+ being depicted for interior areas.

    But alas, we have 1, maybe 2 smaller snow events to get through before we worry too much about Monday…

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