Wednesday Forecast

85 Comments

2:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
On this final day of the first month of 2018, we stand about half way through a winter that was front loaded with cold and a fair amount of snow, though not excessive. If you happen to be reading this prior to 6:40AM, and provided you have an unobstructed view of the western horizon, you still have a chance to view the super blue blood moon, but I must qualify this. The “blood” part is only that, part, as in “partial”, as a lunar eclipse that will be total for the Pacific Ocean area will be just getting underway in the final ten or so minutes before setting, so you may barely notice a reddish tint to the moon as it begins to enter the earth’s shadow. These days, finding the best view online is easy, so some of you may be doing that – putting yourself in the area of best view, virtually. Looking forward, we will enter February in a weather pattern that will be dominated by colder than normal air and fairly frequent passing systems, some promising to deliver additional snow, though looking about as far ahead as I can I’m not seeing any strong signals of any blockbuster snowstorms. The next threat comes early Friday when a cold front passes and the rain showers that accompany it will evolve into a period of snow as moisture lingers behind the front as the cold air returns to the region. High pressure will move in behind this and bring dry and cold weather for Saturday. On its heals will come the next wave of low pressure on Sunday, probably tracking just north of the region but producing snow showers as the air will remain cold enough. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny start then increasing clouds leading to a mostly cloudy finish. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early then diminishing.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief period of snow possible through mid morning, favoring northern MA and southern NH. Chance of rain showers late in the day. Highs 37-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east late evening, turning to snow west to east overnight with minor accumulation likely. Lows 27-34. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with snow ending as snow showers, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun. Temperatures steady 27-34 early then falling through 20s by late day. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs in the 20s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Watching a possible storm of snow and/or mix for early in the period and another threat of winter precipitation about February 7-8 as the pattern remains active. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Additional threats of winter precipitation come during this period as the pattern stays the same. Temperatures near to below normal.

85 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. First, again!
    I get up too early!

    11.5 in my Taunton backyard.

    Blood, Super and Blue Moon. A lunar tripleheader!

    Thanks, TK!
    Happy Wednesday to all!

  8. Thanks TK. Rather remarkable that after the start we had, January 2018 will finish very close to average for temperatures. Above normal precip and snow.

    For February, I still like my prior ideas. First 10 days are a battle between anomalous warmth to the southeast and anomalous cold to the northwest. It may average out a little colder here than I initially thought, probably near average. Three to five disturbances in this 10 day period, none of which look “big” but all of which will need watching. I still like the mid-month period for the possibility of more extreme cold and/or a larger storm or two. That’s still largely an MJO based prediction, along with the +PNA. And continuing to favor moderation to end the month, though it’s possible the cooler pattern could hang on most of the way. Just much too early to say.

    1. Lovely, thank you. Might not be a good idea to watching in a computer chair either. Danger of dozing and falling off. Music is lovely.

  10. Perhaps I was misinterpreting the narrative of this winter’s outlook ….

    But, against my own interpretation, I feel like we are headed for a colder and perhaps snowier February than expected.

    I took the pre-winter narrative to mean that, overall, winter would feature most of its wrath through the end of January.

  16. After what happened yesterday taking all these model solutions with big grains of salt. 994 low on 12z GFS could that to track a little further southeast would bring a healthy dose of snow. Plenty of time for that to change.

    1. Lovely.

      Daughter got some photos last night but nothing out of the ordinary. She said it was behind the trees to our west before she saw it this am.

  19. Euro a little colder for Monday with Rain to Snow in Boston with a couple of inches
    but more to the N&W. Waiting on 2/7,2/8.

  20. Plenty to watch for the first part of February. As I said keep all storms away from Feb. 15th – 19th when I will be away on vacation. I don’t want to miss all the fun with a snow storm happening.

  22. Significant precipitation possible Sunday / Monday timeframe . Tweat from my man Harvey Leonard.

  24. Mr Epstein rain changing to snow Friday morning shouldn’t be much but may impact the commute

  26. Current thoughts are that Friday is very quick but just enough to slow things in the morning. Early idea is 2 inches or less regionwide.

    There is a lot of evidence for a warmer solution for the low that comes through the area Monday and this has to do with position of high pressure. Leaning in that direction at the moment.

    The majority of the first half of February will feature colder and it will be somewhat active as well.

      1. South East Ridge Rules. ALWAYS!!)(Q#*()!&@*(#&*(!@Y&*#^!@&*#^&*!@T^#&*!^@&*#^!&*@^#&!^@&*#^!&*@^#&*!^@&*#^!&*@^#&*!^@#&^!&*@#^&*!@^#!*()@#&*()!&*@#*(&!(@*#&!()*@#_!()*@#_&!*(#&)!&_@#!*@#_@&!*(@#*(_!@()#&*!&_@#$_()!*@#()&*!#&()!@*#()!@&*#&!*(@&#()!@*#()*&!#)*(!&@#()*!()@*#+!@(#*!@*#)(!_@*#&!()@#*!*@#!@#*!)@#&_!(@#*!_*@#!*@#*!+()@#*+()!@#()

        End of Wedneday rant. I now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

  27. A wise met has said: There is a lot of evidence for a warmer solution for the low that comes through the area Monday and this has to do with position of high pressure

    Here is an attempt to depict exactly this:

    Exhibit A: 12Z GFS

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018013112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018013112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018013112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018013112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

    Notice High to the West and to the East. Where do you think the storm system will
    go? Um, Err, um… perhaps right between the 2 of them. (ie WARM solution)

    Exhibit B in next post….

  28. Harvey mentioned in his long range outlook that February will be cold and active BUT any systems that come will be near the rain/snow line.

    I knew I had a bad feeling for snow next month and Harvey has now confirmed that fear. Below normal snowfall is most certainly on the table now.

    SE ridge, huh? 🙁

    1. Come to think of it, Harvey did show that SE ridge on his map, but he didn’t specifically point to it.

    2. I wouldn’t use the term “most certainly”. The next 2 weeks will present several opportunities for winter weather. Boston can go above their February normal rather quickly if a couple of those produce.

      1. You’re talking like we’ve had a crappy winter for snow. Boston’s running ahead of normal. 🙂

          1. Don’t allow yourself to start hanging on model runs. This leads one astray very quickly.

  30. Based on today’s data, while there is still time for change, I agree with TK that rain is the more likely predominant p-type at least for SNE for the 2/4-2/5 system.

    Seems this may be a pattern where there are more cold days than warm ones, but precip chances line up with the warmer days. That may be the story of the front 10 days of February. Again, I think there’s a window beyond for that to change, but of course confidence drops some that far out.

    1. Remember when you were leaning milder than overall guidance and some longer range forecasts said for the 1st 10 days of the month? Still not really that bad an idea, even if we end up colder, it is not going to be with a great departure as some guidance and forecasts suggested.

      1. Thanks TK, I think as a whole the idea worked, but like you say probably a little colder than I initially thought. Definitely some intense cold out there, but centered to our west, and we’re in the battle zone. Really good winter of weather so far, getting some of everything.

  31. Eric has the most snow on Friday for SE MA…interesting. I was assuming quite the opposite if anything.

    1. It makes sense. They will be closer to better moisture when the cold air is in. That is my leaning as well.

  32. For the passed few weeks, i have paid no attention to the 6Z and 18z models until a day or so before. 12z for 4 days out. Only really been paying attention to the 00z as that has all the info

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