Thursday Forecast

111 Comments

2:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
February is here and the weather pattern will bring changing temperatures and a variety of weather during the first 5 days of the month, highlighted by a couple periods of snow and rain through early Friday, the snow favoring northern MA and southern NH this morning, the rain mainly during this evening, then a second period of snow as cold air flows in behind a cold front before the precipitation can end Friday. Arctic cold arrives later Friday and lasts through Saturday, but its stay will be brief as another front approaches and it warms up a bit ahead of it on Sunday. At the same time a strong disturbance will trigger a low pressure area to form and move up along the front as it barely gets offshore, but this system looks like it may track right along the coast or even into southern New England which will allow enough warming for a rain-dominated event for much of the region except mix/snow possible interior higher elevations. This being 4 days in the future we are left with typical uncertainty and the situation will be monitored. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief period of snow possible through mid morning, favoring northern MA and southern NH, accumulating a coating to 1 inch. Chance of rain showers late in the day. Highs 37-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east late evening, turning to snow west to east toward dawn with minor accumulation likely. Lows 27-34. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with snow ending after accumulating 1/2 to 2 inches, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun. Temperatures steady 27-34 early then falling through 20s by late day. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-13. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0 at times.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the morning.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers morning, rain showers afternoon, mix to rain at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s late day or night.
MONDAY: Clearing and windy. Temperatures fall 40s to 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Unsettled weather threat between late February 6 to early February 8, precipitation type dependent on track of the system. Colder later in the period with a snow/mix risk by the end of the period as the active pattern continues.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Another unsettled episode favoring the middle of this period with variable temperatures.

111 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Thanks, TK!
    First of February!
    First in February!

    Temps dropped five degrees in about an hour. It was 11.5 at this time yesterday. It dropped to a low of 6.3 at sunrise!
    It’s 29 now.

    Getting psyched for the Super Bowl! Go Pats!
    Happy Thursday, y’all!

      1. Aha, now I understand. I was wondering what was so exciting about the month of February. As a kid though, I didn’t really think about vacation until maybe the week before it. 🙂

        1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          In addition, for me, its the end of another winter month, one that has lots of darkness and cold.

          As we know, February can offer winter’s worst, however, it has quickly increasing amounts of daylight and sun strength and I am so looking forward to that. 🙂 🙂

        2. I can tell you what’s exciting Philip about February it’s getting closer to winter being over ( plenty of winter left ) but we are starting to round bases .

  6. morning. thank you tk. nice discussion.

    wondering how much RAIN falls this month????

    just bring on Spring and end the agony.

  7. This upcoming new pattern is even more frustrating than a straight out mild zonal flow. We still get shots of arctic air, only to warm up ahead of systems.

  8. I’m perfectly ok with how February is looking. If it’s too cold and snowy, my front-loaded winter forecast blows up in my face. 😉

    1. Never thought of it that way…but I’m still bummed out. 😉

      Would still like to see at least one or two all snow events before winter ends. 🙂

  11. It’s still early in February (How early can we get?), but so far I see the
    damn SE Ridge winning out, at least for our area. As stated above, sure shots of
    arctic cold, totally wasted cold as systems track to our West. I loathe winter
    patterns like this. I share Philips sentiments. Just keep it MILD if it’s just going
    to rain anyway. Geez this sucks.

    1. A couple days ago, I was very confused watching the models show a deep trof in the east with all these clippers and a squashed SE ridge. Just didn’t seem to fit a typical La Nina pattern.

      The sudden change the last 24 to 48 hrs seems to make more sense for a La Nina pattern.

    2. Good luck. Do you want to be chosen? Mac always liked being chosen. Not so much for me since I am self-employed which for some odd reason makes a difference.

      1. I have never been chosen but based on the Judge’s comments so far to us, he has at least 1 or 2 he thinks are ready to go to trial today!

    3. I have been empaneled twice. Once I was thrown out on a lawyer’s challenge and the other time the case was settled during the lunch break after hearing all
      sorts of morning testimony.

      Best of luck.

        1. I would not mind if I were to get close to home….once I retire. But then by the time I retire, I think I’ll be at the age where they stop calling you.

  14. Tomorrow marks the half way point of the winter cold and snow season by agricultural standards.

    “Half the wood and half the hay you should have on Candlemas Day” (Feb 2).

      1. Todd Gross used to say if Mrs G predicts six more weeks of winter that is actually a bonus for New England as we typically have that or more anyway 🙂

    1. Nope. What is missing is the time in betweeen. What you are seeing
      on that is a weak, late redevelopment.

      The main storm system comes through centered over NE MA and S. NH
      delivering RAIN all over SNE.

      Have a peek. (click on image to enlarge)

      https://imgur.com/a/t0bCQ

  20. Euro has a little something for us along about 2/10. We shall see and I have
    some swamp land in Florida to sell you. 😀

    1. Now, that is an interesting read. Thank you for sharing. 😀

      Now, I am compelled to check out the latest from Dr. Cohen.

    3. Thanks Matt. Imagine what that kind of warmth feels to them being 50 degrees above average after being below average!

  23. One bit of summary from Dr. Cohen:

    I believe that the potential exists for the most widespread and/or persistent below normal temperatures of the winter during the month of February. The cold could even extend into March as I also believe persistence is important at the end of winter.

  24. Ah ha !!

    Ok, from Matt’s post of the article regarding the Siberia temps.

    That would explain the models 2 to 3 days ago showing the idea of clippers and persistent cold in the east.

    And now, over the last day or so, the models have incorporated the El Nino adjustments to the pattern by keeping the cold in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes and the storm track over or just west of New England.

      1. I find it a hassle if you don’t get selected. This is my first time to be selected and it was very interesting. I think you would enjoy it.

  27. Been slammed today at work and just took a look at the models. Was surprised to see the HRRR showing up to 6″ for my area (Tolland County CT) tomorrow AM! The storm is looking more robust than it did last night. Could be looking at several inches in NE CT and Worcester County. No surprise the NWS has issued WWA’s for those counties. Even 2-3″ in the lower elevations is looking like a good bet.

    Another snow day tomorrow? My kids will be going to school till end of June at this point.

    1. At this point, Sutton may be as well if it sneaks up to this area. The timing of these are about the worst.

  28. And boy did the extended forecast on the models thru mid February do a complete 180 in the past 48 hours….from cold and white to wet and warm. Does make sense with the La Nina pattern but hopefully we can reload winter a bit towards mid February if we get into a more favorable MJO phase?

  29. I am surprised the northern parts of Litchfield County are not under a winter weather advisory as I think the hills in northwest CT could get around 3 inches. Elevation will make a difference in CT with the snowfall.

    1. Yeah, HRRR has up to 4″ in Litchfield Co as well. Borderline case. I think the WWA thresholds for the NWS Albany CWA are a bit higher though than Taunton’s.

  30. The silver lining with the Monday system is that the ski areas of VT NH and ME looks to get 6-12″. They may repeat that again with the Wed-Thurs system unless the 12z Euro is right and it rains up to the Canadian border.

    As Dave mentioned, the 12z Euro does have a nice clipper system passing to our south withy some redevelopment next Fri/Sat (2/9-2/10) with a moderate snowfall.

  35. Tomorrow morning’s commute could be a very ugly one. The RAP and HRRR are quite robust on snow right to the coast, and I’m inclined to believe them. I think the WWA should be extended east, and that school superintendents should be preparing for at least a delay in the morning.

    Also noting that the RAP and HRRR keep temperatures just above freezing even where it is snowing for most of the early-mid morning hours, but we fall below freezing beyond then. So accumulation may be slow, but we may deal with a flash freeze as well.

    1. I also believe tomorrow will overachieve just like Monday’s storm but more in Boston this time . I’m going 2-4 Boston

  38. If you want more winter that PV isn’t helping, looks full on retreat vs just two days ago. Going to be a battle zone for a while. I am betting March ends up being below average and Feb above average. Just the way I see it.

    1. I’m not sold on anything more than 10 days out on the models right now. The extended range could shift back to colder as quickly as it did the 180 over the past two days.

      1. And it will.

        The battle probability was duly noted by a few of us and we are seeing that now. We will get a couple spikes of cold, but I have never been of the believe this will be a flip completely back to the pattern of late December through mid January.

        In short, the pattern is generally behaving as expected, including the assumed uncertainty ongoing now.

  40. Snowfall update for the event tomorrow…

    Still thinking a general 1/2 to 2 inches, but there will be a couple 2-4 inch areas, especially hills of central MA to southwestern NH and another possible bullseye or 2 somewhere in southeastern MA.

        1. The temp is not going to drop like a rock. It’s going to go down maybe a quick 5 or 6 degrees with the frontal passage then gradually fall off so that most areas lose around 15 degrees off their temps at dawn by the end of the day. So kind of a slower freeze because the return of the sun will counteract it somewhat due to the higher angle. Where areas are shaded, the ice will be a little more substantial.

      1. The range I’m giving is 2-4 and it’s for the hills of central MA and southwestern NH and the area I am thinking about in southeastern MA is interior Plymouth County and possible down to near the RI border. The best support shifts to the south of the city as the front goes by and therefore Boston itself will never see 4 inches. I keep them in the 1/2 to 2 range.

              1. There will be school. If they got there in six inches they can get there in 2. Yes, I know it is the timing but I suspect they set the bar unfortunately with Tuesday’s decision, just like Silver Lake.

        2. I think that 2-4” range extends into NE and NW CT as well. If we can get some heavier stuff in here for awhile. Already down to 33 here.

  41. I was reading about Cape Town, South Africa. Evidently, they are suffering through a major drought.

    They are calling it day zero, when water will be shut off to residences and businesses. Day zero kicks in when there is 13% capacity in Cape Towns dams. Currently, they sit at 26% of capacity. Day zero has been calculated to be April 16th, which happens to be the day of the Boston Marathon.

    They aren’t getting too much rain now in their warm season and probably won’t until their cold season arrives with cold frontal passages. I kind of get the idea they have a precip pattern somewhat similar to California with a dry season and wet season.

    1. yes, they do, and can be more extreme due to the flow of the southern Indian Ocean/Atlantic and Southern ocean. It depends on their jet stream that can sit well south of the region for long periods of time. Kind of like our PV just like a winter when the PV is stubborn and stays rather circular.

      1. They have been amazing but they need to continue winning into the postseason and win at least a couple of rounds. They can’t go one-and-done.

    1. Roads may be just warm enough to stay wet there but I’d expand it to the coast if it were up to me.

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