Friday Forecast

91 Comments

12:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
A cold front charges offshore this morning. This particular front has a fair amount of moisture behind it in the cold air, hence a period of snow to cover things over in many areas and result in some slippery travel for commuters. As temperatures fall during the day, watch for some icy areas where snow doesn’t have a chance to melt and surfaces cannot dry, or on otherwise untreated surfaces. The cold air that moves in today will be around through Saturday night before we moderate Sunday, in time for the arrival of the next system which look like mainly rain after starting as snow showers during Sunday. Fair, colder weather will return behind this system early in the week, but by late Tuesday yet another system will be approaching as the pattern is active. Forecast details…
PRE-DAWN: Rain changing to snow west to east and snow may briefly be heavy in some areas. Temperatures cooling through 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
TODAY: Snow ending after a coating to 2 inches except 2-4 inches favoring higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH, then clearing progressing eastward by midday. Mostly sunny afternoon. Temperatures fall 30s to 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 7-13. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill 0 to -10 at times.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 20s evening, rising to 30s overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers morning, rain showers afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Clearing. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Storm potential February 7 with snow/mix/rain to be determined by storm track. Fair, colder February 8-9. Next threat of precipitation at some point during the February 10-11 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Active pattern brings another couple opportunities for precipitation and a trend toward colder weather.

91 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK! Happy Ground Hog Day!! 😀

    As of this posting, rain/snow line ready to pounce on Boston…37F

  2. Good morning and thank you TK. snowing here. no big deal. a coating is about it.
    End of snow approaching already. Ho Hum. 33 degrees here at the moment.

    btw, the Euro has trended colder for 2/5. still rain in boston, but now it is a close call.
    hmmm

  10. just nowcasting the radar ….

    perhaps the true arctic front going through the Merrimack Valley with what looks like a quick burst of snow and probably a temp fall below the freezing mark.

  11. It was elevation depended here in CT. I would not be surprised if the hill towns in Northwest and Northeast CT got a little more. It changed to snow where I am around 11pm last night a little sooner than expected.

  15. Sure enough, a colder look again on this mornings GFS run. It won’t help us for the Sunday/Monday system though.

    The 0z Euro, although a bit farther south and east for Sunday, is still mostly rain with little to no snow accumulation anywhere south of Concord or east of the berkshires.

  16. Odd storm totally elevation dependent. In Clinton, barely a coating, almost more of a layer of ice. 10 miles west and several hundred feet higher in Holden, 1-2″. 5 miles up the road and a couple more hundred feet in Rutland, 6″. Essentially a trace to 6″ in a 15 mile horizontal distance.

    1. Now that is pretty interesting to be sure.

      Question:
      Did the bulk of the snow fall prior to the front and thus it was truly
      elevation dependent? I assume so, else it would not make much sense at all.

    3. I don’t know the exact timing. I do know that 10PM in Clinton it was a light rain. By 3:30 AM in Holden, crews were called out to start treating the roads…figure the change over in Holden was around 3AM or so.

    4. Same here. I had 2”. The Tolland spotter who is a few miles north of me and higher in elevation reported 5”. Usually we are pretty close on our measurements.

  18. I don’t know about PP in PA but there is NO way Ms. G saw her shadow here.

    Early spring…as per TK’s outlook. 🙂

  19. Thanks TK. RAP/HRRR were too aggressive on snow in eastern areas last night. Still, some 2-3″+ totals in central and western MA, and definitely an elevation dependency. A couple inches up here in Plymouth, NH with a very cold wind this morning and falling temperatures. Very wintry feel.

    In our “seesaw” pattern, we now tip to colder for a couple days. Still a fast pattern with multiple additional weather systems. 2/4-2/5 looks generally unimpressive to me, and should be mostly or all rain in SNE, maybe even mostly rain pretty far into central New England. Ski areas up this way are struggling a bit. The snow season started great, but the last month has been poor. Watching 2/7 for another system, which may be a little juicier/more organized, early leaning on that one is similar to the next one in terms of more rain in SNE. Plenty of time to watch that.

    I’ve been calling for a colder period with a larger storm potential in the mid-month period. It looks like any sustained deep cold is going to be tough to get, but I still think we’ll have at least one big storm opportunity between 2/10-2/20. Finally, the last part of my February outlook was a warm up after 2/20. That I continue to feel good about. It remains an all around tricky forecast, as we see with the models so all over the place.

  20. A reminder that a 40th anniversary retrospective of the Blizzard of ’78 will be held tomorrow, Saturday, February 3, at the Mansfield Public Library, 255 Hope St., Mansfield, MA at 1 pm. It is free.

    1. That is simply beyond belief and what’s more astounding is that
      I actually would NOT be surprised IF this were true.

    2. First off, Jackson said from the start that it was not true. This is old news except the NFL didn’t want to focus on it.

      Second….and more important….this is the most ridiculous comment I have ever heard….possibly literally.

      It’s been two years since the DeflateGate saga and we still don’t know whether or not the New England Patriots purposefully deflated footballs despite the team being docked draft picks and Tom Brady being suspended four games.

      We sure as heck do know that it was a lie. Anyone who took the time to read the documents and to actually understand them, knew from the get go that it was a blatant lie. You’d have to be an unmitigated fool to not know this. Sorry if that is harsh, but there are far too many inconsistencies and errors in the measures, techniques, etc. to not know this. Someone got to the final group of judges. It is highly unusual to overturn a ruling when it gets to that point.

  22. Also last week, I thought I saw a bald eagle, but this morning, I know for sure I saw one in the marsh behind my house. I have seen red-tails and marsh hawks all the time but this morning I saw one up in the large willow tree of all places. I find this extremely cool.

    1. They are amazingly majestic. We have not seen the two juveniles for a week or so. They were consistently in the same spot for a while. At one point they were feeding on the remains of a deer that some coyotes had pulled onto the ice of the pond. I don’t know if juveniles tend to remain in one spot or move on.

  24. the 12z is warmer than the previous two runs. I am going to go with what I been saying is pay more attention to 00z runs as it has all the information needed.

  26. My kids gave me a great book on the Blizzard of 1978 a while back. I was going through the many photos and the commentary and would highly recommend it.

    “The Blizzard of ’78” Michael Tougias

  27. I have a stupid question – pardon my ignorance – about SE “ridging,” which appears to be playing a role in pushing storms along a jet stream that goes over us in SNE rather than south of us. 1. Am I stating this correctly? 2. Is the area of high pressure that repeatedly every 3rd day slides off shore to our south and east “SE ridging”?

    1. I don’t have time to keep looking, but I found this example that
      explains the SouthEast Ridge. What you describe above is more
      the surface reflection of the SE Ridge. I do believe when mentioning
      SE Ridge, the real culprit is at the 500 mb level. See example below.

      The next example is from January 14, 2007. The 500 mb map is valid for Sunday, January 14, 2007 at 18Z (this corresponds to 11 AM local Tucson time). Next to the 500 mb map is a map showing the surface temperatures across the United States at 20:15 GMT (or 20:15 Z, which is 13:15 (i.e., 1:15 PM) local time). Again, notice that temperatures are cool or cold near the trough in the western United States, for example 42°F in Tucson at 1:15 PM local time. In most of the southeastern United States, temperautures are much warmer in association with a broad ridge and higher 500 mb heights.

      http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall12/atmo336/lectures/sec1/500mb_Sunday_18Z.gif

      http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall12/atmo336/lectures/sec1/Sunday_temps_20Z.jpg

    1. Well, that sure looks interesting, but what the bleep is the deep thunder model?
      Sounds like a bunch of male strippers.

  33. A retrospective of The Great Blizzard of ’78 tonight on Chronicle 7:30 on Ch. 5 w/Harvey Leonard! 🙂

  34. Dennis Edwards (Temptations) passed away. I like this long version of their best-known hit:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJV2pWFyfn4

    On a different note also unrelated to weather, the market correction that’s underway may not just be a blip. The economy’s fundamentals are not particularly sound (beware of false appearances), and certainly do not justify the bubble that is the stock market (cheap money – low interest rates – has been the main reason, coupled with some irrational exuberance). I’m quite concerned about the economy moving forward. While I don’t think a recession is imminent, I believe we will have one by early 2019. We’re overdue for a recession.

    And on weather, wow, what a difference a day makes. It certainly is brisk out there. Careful if you’re walking about, as sidewalks (especially brick) may be slippery.

    1. Well reasoned, Joshua…..there is reason for concern and you are not alone.

      And weather….there has been a stiff SSW breeze all day. I opened the window for fresh air; and even cracked, the cool air quickly went through the first floor.

    3. I disagree a little Joshua. A7.5% gain in January wasn’t real. It was a 2.5% loss today. Profit taking. I’m the opposite. I think the fundamentals are stronger than you think, if it drops 10%, well then your in correction territory. Not sure I agree with the resession idea either. Consumer confidence is pretty high, corporate earnings are pretty good, and those tax cuts will kick in this year. I’m still pretty optimistic.

      1. The data is always the best and sentiment always the most bullish at peaks….not many people are aware of this, but we smashed all time sentiment records across all major assets last week…97% bulls on the Nasdaq, 96% on the S&P and dow, commodities, and gold sporting similar readings…all surpassing the sentiment prior to 01 and 08….compare to 2% bulls in march of 09 when people should have been buyers…savings rate just hit just hit a 12 year low meaning consumers are stretched..global debt is massively above 08, nothing to see here folks..this is not the time to be bullish, not even close

        3. I thought about your comment as I fell asleep. It is indeed something many are not aware of and important for us all to understand. Thank you.

        4. Enjoy the comments as well Go for snow.

          The only thing I’d wonder is …. there’s really been no encouragement for people to save with the interest rates so low. I laugh when I see the interest earned nowadays. People probably have their money put into higher risk, but higher reward/return options.

          I am happy to hear the fed is thinking of 3 interest rate hikes this year. That could funnel some money out of the stock market and into savings.

          1. I think the savings go hand in hand with low income. Income now is increasing slowly but has less purchasing power than a couple of decades ago. The average person has just enough for necessities so little to save or invest. The consumer (average Joe) drives three quarters of the economy. Without purchasing power, the economy limps along. For interest rates….if they don’t rise and we have a recession expected by many, there is no room for them to drop. All simply put, and I suspect Snow and Joshus can word better than I, but I think there are many factors other than the top level picture.

            Thanks, TK. Sorry for this brief intermission.

  36. Once we get into March I start to lose interest in snow, particularly because it’s staying power is greatly diminished….I have not enjoyed this snow season compared to others….all ofbthe snow storms were quick hitting, I don’t think we had a storm with a duration greater than 12 hours…just can’t get excited about that kind of stuff…oh well

      1. I’d say it’s going by at the same rate of all the other ones. 😉

        I’ve liked this pattern, especially since it is following my winter forecast. 😉

          1. Ah March! The month of some of our biggest winter storms.

            Will it happen in 2018? Time will tell…

            2. No, because for the first time ever I signed the plow guy up for the month of march for $5k at work. Normally just contract him for Dec, Jan & Feb and pay by the hour in march.

  37. Good morning….

    I do not like ANYTHING I am seeing looking ahead. We “may” have a bit of snow down
    the road with some cold air damming ahead of a system passing to our West (what the bleep else is new?) Something best change and change fast, else just bring on Spring!
    Skip the Winter Charade.

    1. I love this more than here even. They sure need it. Too many sparse years to make up for. Although oldest had intended to head north for a family weekend…not ski, but fun. Prices were in the couple of thousands for a four day stay.

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