Saturday Forecast

72 Comments

9:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Active pattern but for a while the storms are going to be tracking northwest of the region and putting southeastern New England on their warmer side. One will arrive Sunday and the next Wednesday. The Wednesday one will have enough cold air left at its arrival to start as snow at least in part of the region, but it’s several days away so details will have to be ironed out. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-24 evening, rising to 30s overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy morning with a risk of brief light snow/rain. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving. Highs 40-46. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy at times, during the evening then ending overnight. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow to rain. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Active pattern will send more disturbances through the region with odds favoring mix/rain over snow. Will figure out timing as it gets closer.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Pattern quiets a little as it trends colder.

72 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  4. According to Barry, a few inches of snow including Boston before a change to rain. Earlier forecasts had all rain and temps well into the 40s much like tomorrow’s system.

  7. Thanks TK. Would’ve loved to have gone to the ‘78 event. I’ve been involved with BHO for a number of years now and they do a great job with these kind of things. Having just driven up to school a week ago though, I wasn’t too keen on a round trip down and back. I think my next conference-y event will be Northeast Storm Conference next month.

    Would love to see that Euro run verify. Snow prospects in SNE look pretty bleak for the foreseeable future. It does fit the expected pattern for this winter, going way back to the initial predictions, although my later leanings had been that we may still get some decent snow even in SNE this month. Now, I’m increasingly doubtful. A lot of obstacles. Better snow chances central/northern New England for now. As always, will continue to watch.

  8. With this pattern I would be happy if I get that amount of snow in the next 10 days the 0z EURO is showing.

    1. Looks like the GFS is slowly coming around to that solution.
      Wonder what the Euro will show in a couple of hours?

  12. Canadian is perfect, that snow/rainline is just south of Boston, Great placement, good snows for my area and ski country. To bad its the Canadian. GFS shifted closer to it though, like someone said above, it went closer. But, I won’t get my hopes up, will be somewhat more excited if its still there as of Monday.

  13. Yesterday I posted an announcement on The ’78 Blizzard prospective that was on last night’s Chronicle. It not only reminisced on the blizzard itself but also looked into the future as to whether it could happen again and to how much more damage to our coastline due to higher sea levels. Harvey gave a very good prospective I thought.

    Just curious if others here watched it.

    1. I watched it here with two grasndsons and when fully recovered plan to watch again with my granddaughter at her house. I thought it was well done. I think I liked the one last Sunday a bit more but they go well together.

      Thank you for telling us it was in. I figured chronicle would do one but thought it would be next week so would have missed it if you had not said something

      1. I only found out about it myself when I came home from work and saw the ad. Fortunately I had the tv on Ch. 5 at the time. 🙂

  16. If that CMC is right BDL would have to close to if not a little bit above for normal snowfall in a season which is 40.5. They currently have 23.7 inches.

  17. 12z Euro is still too warm for most of SNE with the midweek system but dumps 10-20” of snow on VT, NH and ME. A slight shift east in the track and SNE is into it as well. One thing that’s consistent, it looks like this system is going to loaded with moisture. Areas that stay all snow are in for a good dumping. The ski areas should have terrific conditions by next weekend.

  18. There is plenty of time for a slight shift east. Ed Vallee was tweeting earlier and I posted there might be a sneaky negative NAO with that storm system mid week.

    1. We are going to be right near that battle zone much of the month. It should be interesting. Slight deviations in track make a big difference in outcome.

  19. There is going to be some forecasting challenges to say the least with that battle zone you mentioned Mark.

  20. Logan to date is 16.7 inches away from normal. I hope we get at least normal for the month which is about a foot…11-12″ give or take.

    1. They will, even if it’s just from a series of 2 or 3” mix storms with snow on the front and/or back end. Active pattern with cold air nearby and storm track close to us will provide chances with most of these systems, even if it isn’t a favorable pattern for all snow events in SNE. But I even think we get a shot for 1 or 2 all snow events this month when the storm track temporarily dips south as the models have been hinting at from time to time.

  21. Good late afternoon all!

    What a fabulous event today at Granite Links Golf Club run by BHO! The turn out was great. In fact, the event sold out, and I estimate 150 to 200 people were there.

    I was able to talk to most of the broadcast, current and former, that were there, which included Kevin Lemanowicz, Jeremy Reiner, Tim Kelley, Mish Michaels, Barry Burbank, Harvey Leonard, Mark Rosenthal, Bruce Schwoegler, and of course the legendary Bob Copeland.

    The fabulous Dr. Louis Ucellini was also there as a keynote speaker. Is this guy on top of it. Fabulous. Some of the things ongoing in modeling now are going to take things to the next level.

  22. A bit more on the weather pattern going forward…

    I’m happy with the February outlook I posted back in late November as part of the winter outlook. After listening to Lou and chatting with Barry about the pattern today, I wouldn’t make any changes to the overall outlook.

    We’re going to be in a pattern of largely positive NAO for a while, at least 2 weeks if not longer, that may go close to neutral around the middle of next week briefly. We’ll have to watch things closely because we will have other indices that are cold and/or snow indicators, but for now it doesn’t look like just the right combo & magnitude of these to produce a storm track that snows a lot on southern New England. Northern New England is a different story, however, and will be much snowier as we suspected going into late winter while southern areas catch a reprieve. If I had to venture a guess, Boston will end up with below normal snow for this month, unless we can time a quick flip to -NAO correctly, or have some other kind of anomaly bring a swath of significant moisture across while it’s cold enough. Close call Wednesday, but don’t think it goes that way. The event before that and after that will be milder ones, and possibly a couple more beyond that.

    Dr. Ucellini stated “we’ll basically waste most of February” around here with positive NAO.

    1. No snow is never a waste in my book.
      3.5 weeks till March, then we in the home stretch to April.

      1. We’ll have to watch it though because coming out of this pattern if QBO, NAO, and MJO line up, and they may, then watch out…

        1. March snow doesnt bother me that much. It usually melts pretty fast, daylight is longer, higher sun angle, and by March, it’s slmost over.

  23. I’m not totally convinced the simple presence of a +NAO is all that’s messing us up for cold/snow. If you go back and look at large February snowfalls in SNE the past 20-25 years or so, you’ll find the majority actually occurred in +NAO patterns (I did this as part of a research project). However, it is likely the magnitude of the current +NAO pattern (values near and above +1) is a problem. Such high values are correlated with very strong SE Ridging. At that point it’s hard to avoid the warmth.

    Still, I’m not overly confident on below normal snow for SNE this month. That seems more likely right now, but mostly just because the models say we’ll be in a big hole by mid-month. Intuitively, it isn’t that bad of a large scale pattern outside the magnitude of the +NAO. We’re also heading into what looks like a solid +PNA regime. I still like the MJO coming around as well. If the SE Ridging turns out a little weaker than it looks now or backs off for a time later on, we could still have opportunities even in SNE. Also watching the vortex; AO looks like it may go more negative towards mid-month. At the very least, it’s much too early to write the whole month off for snow.

    1. Dr. U attributes NAO as the main cause for the next 2 weeks.

      Barry and I were discussing the uncertainties you mentioned and we are all in agreement on that. However for the time being I’m still happy with the lower snow forecast from Boston area southward and we’ll keep an eye on things to see how they evolve.

      1. The keynote speaker Dr. U is the only met I don’t recognize of the ones in attendance. I assume he is nationally known like some on Accuweather.com for example?

        1. Dr. Uccellini is the Director of the National Weather Service (overall, not just Boston) and an assistant administrator for NOAA.

  24. How is Bob Copeland looking these days? He must be approaching 90 if not already there. Nice that he was able to attend. 🙂

    1. Bob looks great for his age! His voice is a bit weaker these days but he is sharp as a tack.

      1. The fact that his mind is still sharp and still physically able to get around is a bonus. Good to hear that. 🙂

  25. Is February 2018 going to end up similar to to the entire 2011-12 winter? Was that a La Niña pattern as well?

  26. This morning Barry noted the continued cold in Canada and that it still needs to be watched. I would say the question is, does it plunge down occasionally just dry/very cold only to retreat as soon as storms arrive (i.e. tomorrow/midweek/next weekend) or will it allow for a storm or two to pass just south and bring a few precious hours of snow (no mix)? The latter too much to ask of a front loaded winter?

    1. Barry and I talked today. We agree that we’ve seen the worst, overall. That said, we are 1 day beyond the half way point between winter solstice and vernal equinox. Need I say more?

          1. I didn’t say that bud but it is indeed getting closer and closer as I said the other night . This is the beef of it now & if we get through this month I feel very , very good moving forward .

  27. We might have an “early spring” but I think the spring will be a cool one. With major severe weather for the Plains and southeast. As the cold air in Canada tries to fight off the warmth.

    1. Spring here is always cool. That’s nothing new, unfortunately. I’m waiting for another 2012. But I’ll be retired in Florida before that happens here again I imagine.

      1. I am actually thinking of University of Miami for one of my long list of schools, none of which are actually here in Mass but I have heard that living in Florida is terrible.

        1. Florida is fine. Contrary to popular belief, there are other places in the US that are livable besides New England.
          Maybe even better 😉
          But yea, parts of Florida aren’t great. I like the west coast of Florida better. Tampa/St Pete, Ft Myers, anything along that area is good, IMO.
          Atlanta metro is good. So is the Raleigh/Durham and Charlotte area of NC. Wilmington, NC is nice to.

          1. Doesn’t Florida have the most frequent lightning storms in the U.S. if not the world and the most lightning fatalities overall?

          2. I never said, I thought it was terrible, I just heard from people that I know that went to college in Florida that living down there was not the best.

  28. TK – Was the 2011-12 winter a La Niña pattern as well? If so, will February take on similar characteristics?

    1. I stood amidst the 4 guys in the middle of that photo chatting with them and it was an honor to do that today. I have a couple photos I’ll post up on here probably next blog.

Comments are closed.