Wednesday Forecast

213 Comments

7:32AM

NOTES…
* Been very sick so this particular forecast is really more an updated version of yesterday’s. Will add more in the comments today when I can.

* Will try to have the special blog out by tonight about my Blizzard of 1978 experience.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
No big changes to the messy storm coming today and departing tonight other than to just shave the top edge of the snowfall slightly for the timing of the warming and the speed of the storm. Otherwise here is an updated forecast…
WEDNESDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow (rain South Coast) arriving southwest to northeast late morning and midday then becoming heavy at times with a changeover line from sleet to rain progressing north northwestward into the I-95 belt during the course of the day with freezing rain and some significant icing in central MA and southern NH. Highs 28-35 except 35-42 South Coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts along the coast, and may become variable late in the day.
TONIGHT: Snow/mix northwest, rain elsewhere except continued icing central MA and southern NH, ending west to east evening. Snow/sleet accumulation for the event: nothing southeast of the Cape Cod Canal, coating to 2 inches Plymouth to New Bedford, 2-4 inches remainder of southeastern MA and northern RI to Boston’s immediate western suburbs up to Cape Ann, 4-6 inches I-95 belt north of the Mass Pike, 6-8 inches northwest of there with spot amounts up to 10 inches higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-28. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Variably to mostly cloudy with a risk of a little light snow at times. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Mild with unsettled weather mainly early in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
A couple minor precipitation threats and a bit colder during this period.

213 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!

    Repost from old blog:
    This will be an interesting lesson in models or modelology as TK calls it vs. meteorology. How long does the cold hang on at all levels and how much snow can we sneak in before the changeovers? It was 18 when I left the house this morning and it felt like snow, I’m feeling pretty good about TKs 2-4 for Boston, all predicated on the idea that models stink at timing warm air intrusions.

  4. Talk about an ugly commute leaving Boston this afternoon in heavy rain and turning to snow north and west of the city. What a shame we are wasting a moisture laden system.

  9. Thanks TK. Outlook for the week:

    Today: Body aches begin to abate. 20% chance of chicken noodle soup.

    Tonight: plenty of fluids move in from the north to hydrate the core, electrolytes hopefully involved. Temps hopefully at about 96-98f.

    Feel better buddy.

  11. Just a feeling that snow/ice will hang on longer in many places away from the immediate coast and south shore.

  12. Thanks TK and feel better.
    Starting to snow lightly where I am. Too bad this is going to be a sloporama and not a snoworama.

  14. Thanks TK !

    Feel better soon !!

    Dewpoints at 9am still remaining low. Going to be tough to scour out that interior surface cold with the lack of a deep storm system.

    1. Looking out in Boston harbor at the buoy 16 nautical miles out, there is a sharp coastal front in between the 2.

      Its 35F out there, with an ESE breeze.

  16. 32.5 at my house in JP with DP 21. So as Tom indicated, room for temp to drop
    temporarily when snow commences.

    Still not overwhelmed with possible snow amounts.

    In fact, would not surprise me if it warms aloft sooner.

      2. FWIW, I am far more concerned about ice than a couple to a few inches of snow. Timing in relation to the commute might (might) not be good.

  23. Snowing at a decent clip in Coventry CT. Still only 22.5 degrees. All surfaces are coated. It actually started around 9:30 as a period of light sleet which surprised me. Probably does not bode well for an extended period of snow.

  24. The icing across inland CT will be the bigger deal. The snow will be minor. Then could be looking at slippery AM commute tomorrow with everything freezing up.

  25. I should add that schools are closed again here today. They contemplated early release but the timing of the storm would have meant the kids were getting out in the height of it. I believe this is the 5th or 6th day now and if we get a another 2 snow days, they will be going to school into the last week of June. You’d think we have had a brutal winter but its more the timing rather than size of these storms that have been difficult. The two days off in October due to that major wind/rain storm that knocked down a lot of trees and power lines didn’t help either.

  28. Snowing in the City now (Roxbury)

    Looks might threatening for sure.

    So, 11-2 or 3 ish. It will all depend upon the intensity whether or not
    Boston Makes any accumulation at all because it will certainly be going over to rain.

  33. Just looking at radar, system is moving more due east. That cold is going to be tough to scour out away from the coast for sure. We shall see

  36. There were a few flakes about an hour ago but in the last 15 mins. or so the snow is coming down moderately here in Sudbury.

  40. TK. Chrome went down on my computer so I had to switched to Firefox. If you get odd posts from me, it is because I am resetting everything. Sorry. Just ignore them. I’ll figure it out….if I don’t toss computer into the snow that is 😉

  43. My colleagues are convinced that there is going to be a lot of snow followed by everything icing up. We work near Kendall Square. I think they are looking for an excuse to leave early! The school closures and early releases are adding to their feelings of panic…

  44. Feel better, TK! Snowing about an inch an hour, as it just started at 11:00, and at 12:23 we have a little over an inch. Glad I’m working from home today! Be safe, everyone.

  48. Delivery person said main roads are coated also and a bit slick. Just had a trash vehicle and another vehicle slide into each other on a street off of ours…not main but a cut through. Good choice to cancel school.

  49. We have had mostly light snow, with occasional moderate bursts in Coventry, CT since 9:30 and it has been mixing with sleet at times. The intensity has been thoroughly unimpressive. I just measured a whopping 0.75″ after three hours of precipitation!

    One thing that has surprised me though is the temperature has barely risen at all. We are still sitting at only 23F. Temp has risen only 1 degree in the last three hours. I’m getting more concerned now that we may have an extended period of icing once the rain gets in here.

    1. Mark just about the same here except I have not seen any mix with sleet. We might have an inch; but after the initial coating, it is piling up very slowly. On some of our surfaces, there was a very fine coating of ice before snow began. That may be the reason for some slipping.

      Temp has crept up – barely – to 26 and DP remains at 23.

    1. Just saw some ice showing up on south coast of MA and southern coasts of RI and CT. There seemed to be a pocket of icing in Providence also.

  51. Seems ice is moving up into southwest corner of CT and up into Scranton area of PA as well as around NYC. Mark, I figure when (if) your temps start to drop, we will not be far behind in Sutton.

  52. Meeting adjourned. YEAH!!!!

    Snowing moderately, borderline heavy here at the Office (roxbury).
    Going out to grab a sandwich since none was provided for the meeting.

    Looks like about an inch here.

    😀

    1. Oh and I forgot, REALLY BIG flakes, often times (not always) a signal
      that it is about to change over. W e shall see.

  55. Big fat flakes is my rap pseudonym. My first album is called “Changeover to rain”. The first single is “Slush.”

    2. Keep ’em coming. Only problem is that you make me laugh hard enough that I start to cough….but I’ll take it. Well done!

  63. We just turned to rain, however, that heavy batch fell as snow and we saw a quick inch of wet snow.

    Frustratingly, now raining, it has still cancelled the class a bunch of us are taking on Wednesday evenings and now we have to make it up in May !!

    I am so done with winter !!!!

  67. 27 and rain in Sutton. Seems to be freezing on surfaces not snow covered. Cars are creeping on the only more Main Street I can see from here

  69. Freezing rain in Coventry CT as well. 26 degrees. Just under an inch of accumulation. We did snow for about as long as I thought we would (3.5 hours) but the intensity just wasnt there as hinted at by the short range models last night.

    I am concerned now we are going to have several hours of icing before we get above freezing.

  70. Rain/snow line zooming northward. It will probably be near/in Boston by 2:15 pm.

    Logan probably ends up with barely a lousy inch. 🙁

  72. OK, time of changeover in the CITY: 2:06 PM. 😀 😀 😀

    What a joke of a storm. Total accumulation perhaps 1 1/4 inch.

    We’re officially done. All we got out of this was a pretty scene looking out of’
    the window. See Ya.

    See Ya Winter!!

    2. Seems if you go by the 12z GFS not too much cold ahead so if anything more storms like this if not all rain. Going to NC on 2/21 and hoping the SE ridge says hello 🙂

  75. Snow seems to have stopped in Woburn where I am…too lazy to look out closer to see if it’s raining ha.

      1. Yeah just removed all the snow. Hard to say how much…at least 1.5″ I would guess. Any changeover to snow again? Hate waking up to another snow removal ha.

  77. There was no way Boston was getting 2-4 inches today . Concern now is everything freezing up later that’s where we have problems

    1. Did you not read the caveat on my forecast comments about what could alter the snow there by up to 3 inches?

      Weather is not about “told you so”. 1 hour sooner there and they’re over 2.

      1. it’s not a told you so Boston was just not going to get 3 or 4 inches out of this . It pretty much came in on time and moved out on time . The bigger story with this system may be later if it freezes up.

            1. I can say for certain medical area didn’t receive 2 inches . Logan is a horrid measuring spot .

              1. The measurement is taken by a former coworker and good friend of mine just across from the runway (has been for several years). He does a decent job there. Logan’s amount is correct, also given that a friend of mine in Winthrop had just over 2 as well.

  78. I notice Sutton has seemed in the past couple of events to switch from salt to sand. I wonder if it is a budget thing.

  79. We have about 4 inches of snow in Sudbury. We also now have freezing rain. Temp. outside is 31 degrees.

      1. Yes – and now it’s freezing up with the freezing rain. I hate this type of storm. I would rather have all snow or all rain. I don’t like ice – especially when you have to drive in it. I’ve done it – lousy. If we can’t have at least one decent snowstorm this season – Bring on the Spring! I am more than ready for it! 🙂

        1. I agree re snow and rain vs ice. I am ready for spring if only because the illnesses are nasty this year and it will be nice to get outside. However, I’ll enjoy each day for what it brings.

          1. I am with you JPD. Was hoping my dad would pull some strings up there in heaven and get us at least one more good storm. If not, we are onto spring!

  81. I had a cup of cider vinegar and garlic soup. Holy crap I think I’m cured!

    Anyone want a kiss? 😉

    2. Feel better TK. I had it last week and didn’t eat at all for a day. I didn’t even want to see food.

  83. Ok now that I’m inside for the first time since 2, I’m going to sit and warm up. I don’t get cranky often but I AM NOW WAAAAH!

    I’ll be fine in a few min 🙂

    Looking over the snow reports to see how things actually verified, other than my measurement I have no idea what anyone else got.

  84. I don’t say I told you so….but I can say TK told you so. He said 2.1 yesterday for Boston……….and Hadi just reported Logan has 2.1. That apple cider is working wonders. SSK….who said up to 4 for Boston.

    TK Braggs makes a honey cider vinegar drink that isn’t bad at all. Is that what you are drinking?

    1. Actually I didn’t do all that bad either. Check above. I predicted 2.3 inches. I deserve at least “honorable mention”. 🙂

      1. I actually would like the recipe. Sounds as if it would clear your head. But maybe look for the braggs next time in store.

    2. At least from Boston south it may not be an abrupt temp drop so hopefully there will be time for most surfaces to dry off. I agree that slippery conditions will still be around for the morning nevertheless.

  88. A poll for WHW friends: Who prefers the scenario snow to rain over rain to snow? You all know what I prefer. I must say I loathe a storm that features snow to rain. It’s gross. But, in doing some errands around the neighborhood I overheard many conversations in which people were stating their preference for snow to rain (“rain is so much better than snow” was the general sentiment). I do recognize that the majority of people in SNE do not like winter, and therefore prefer snow to rain. I think that among WHW friends and weather buffs generally rain to snow is preferred by a slim majority. But, I don’t have empirical evidence for that. My all-time favorite rain to snowstorm was March 31/April 1, 1997.

    1. I prefer snow to rain. Rain to snow can ice things up underneath more quickly and push us into unsafe roads, etc. quickly.

        1. Of course I prefer all snow or all rain.

          A tough call, but I guess rain to snow as long as there is at least a couple inches of fluff on top for some grip underfoot. Snow to rain makes shoveling quite a chore, at least for me personally.

  89. This storm has gone mostly as anticipated. A little quicker than expected on the warming in some areas, but the 2-4″ range for the Boston area was not bad.

    Here in Plymouth, NH, we had been snowing pretty steadily around 3/4″ per hour since around 11AM. About an hour and a half ago we dramatically ramped up the intensity to around 2-2.5″ per hour. Here as well, final totals should be close to expectations, near the one foot mark. I think this storm was very well forecast by models and humans alike.

  90. TK, a little favor, if you wouldn’t mind. I think you are in touch with SAK. I made a little poster of his superb owl at school (elementary)–well, that was the best joke ever heard by 4th grade boys (better than no soap radio, apparently). So, if you can relay my thanks to him–he made me the coolest teacher ever, pre-superbowl.

    1. It’s a shame that SAK doesn’t post here no more . He was an exceptional met that was a blessing for this blog , it’s to bad .

  91. Oh, and lay off the garlic/cider vinegar. That’s just disgusting 🙂 But it reminds me–My mother used to make a homemade brandy that would cure whatever it is you had. It was like a sourdough thing–she had a starter and just kept adding fruit to it–for years, I tell you. It probably could have killed us all (and most assuredly nowadays someone would have called the DSS on her for that…) I don’t know what happened to it when she passed away–probably a hazmat crew took care of it….

    1. Ok…I’m going for the homemade brandy

      My mother in law who was in remarkable health even in mid 80s had apple cider vinegar, cinnamon and another ingredient every morning. When the new bridge was built in charleston and people could walk it before open to cars, there was a huge thing about two people in their 80s walking it rather than taking the transportation offered. They were Macs parents.

      And yet…..I’ll take the homemade brandy 🙂

            1. That can sure happen. But it is important for people to know it isn’t always the case. It can neutralize the acid in your stomach. I drink up to 100 oz of lemon water a day also and it helps as well….the water is for kidney stones but has the added benefit for gerd

                1. Exactly. My Dr. told me it can help people whos acid reflux is due to too little acid in the stomach (less common). But for the majority with too much acid it can exacerbate the symptoms

                2. Hmmm. Mine said the opposite…it can neutralize too much acid. And I definitely have too much acid…..my stones are acidic not calcium based

                  Either way…everyone is different.

        2. Actually know a guy who cut his pills down to basically nothing from drinking this and he had the reflex thing . I’m new but the People I know doing it swear by it

            1. Hahaha, dirty socks, good one 🙂 I was thinking my in-laws wine cellar. Smells like musty cobwebs

  92. I hope we can get at least one more “all snow” event by the end of the month. Nothing is expected for next week.

  93. Still raining here. If temps drop as expected, I’m wondering about school tomorrow. These piddly little systems are having quite an impact on school

  97. 31F in Coventry, CT. Only managed to get to 33F today. Still raining pretty hard and can hear the sleet mixing back in as the colder air returns. Not much precip left to go though. Driveway is icy and roads slushy.

  99. 10″ of new snow reported today at Killington as of 5:30PM and still snowing. 35″ of new snow in the past 7 days. Skiing tomorrow (for those lucky enough to be there) is going to be epic with powder conditions and 100% of the trails and glades open.

    1. im heading up this weekend hopefully to loon, be just my second time out this season. :/ it shall change, will be going out at least 3 more times other than my loon trip, I have yet to beat my record of 17 trips back in 2011.

      1. You’ve picked the right weekend…should be great skiing! They will probably be getting some more fresh snow up there Friday/Saturday as well.

  102. Drove across Woburn around 10:30PM with some fat flakes falling from that very narrow strip of precipitation that moved through.

    Ground freeze-up underway.

  104. The ice on my driveway is an inch thick….I can’t even leave mg house…this is after waiting to clear the driveway until 8 last night…have not seen conditions this bad that I can remeber

  106. New post!

    I managed to get the ’78 blog mostly written. Will finish it off later today and finally post. This damn bug killed my energy.

Comments are closed.