Friday Forecast

53 Comments

7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
A warm front will approach southern New England today and tonight, first spreading cloudiness into the region, then some light snow is possible with the best chance for this in the northern half of MA northward during this evening and tonight. The front will be north of the region Saturday then slowly slip southward again as a cold front during Sunday while a couple waves of low pressure ridge up along it. By then the atmosphere will have warmed plenty so that we have a rain threat, and that rain will become more likely as moisture increases. Drier air should kick the rain chance out of here Monday as high pressure tries to build down from the north though it may not clear out much, and another disturbance may send a little additional precipitation into slightly colder air by Tuesday. Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of light snow with a coating to 1 inch possible, mainly northern MA and southern NH. Lows 22-28. Wind light S.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow or freezing drizzle north central MA and southern NH early, then a chance of rain showers. Highs 43-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light mix possible. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to near 40.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Large scale pattern will feature a southeastern US ridge of high pressure and plenty of cold in Canada. Not seeing any strong mechanism to bring the cold fully in other than a piece of it during the second half of the period after a mild beginning. A minor precipitation event (favoring rain over snow) is possible around February 15-16 during this transition.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Not a strong feel for the overall pattern but not expecting any major changes to the pattern of mid February at this point.

53 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. This morning is one of those mornings that my difficulty in forecasting temperatures in the short term shows up glaringly. I never seem to allow enough for radiational cooling, especially in winter.

    -2 in Orange MA.
    +23 at Logan.

  3. Thank you, TK. I just read your wonderful and well-written piece on the Blizzard of ’78. My husband and I were living in Framingham at the time. The things that stand out for me was the following: I had heard that we would be getting some snow the night before. I left for my job in Natick the next morning at 6:30 as I usually did. I was and still am a lover of the weather but more of an observer and on my way to work, I noticed that the sky had a pink tone to it. I don’t remember when it actually started to snow but we were told to go home around 1:00. It was snowing but I don’t remember how hard. My husband worked in Quincy at the time and was let out about the same time. He was lucky because if he stayed any longer, he would have been in one of those cars stuck on Rte. 128. That night, I remember the wind howling like crazy and the weather (we watched Bruce Schwoegler) saying the winds could reach 75 mph or more. I was sure the lights would go out but they didn’t. The next morning I couldn’t believe my eyes. Our parking lot was totally covered by snow – no cars! Just a few antennas – as I think other people here on the blog reported seeing. I had never seen anything like that.

    Again, thanks TK for sharing your memories of the storm with us. And I hope you feel better soon and please take it easy.

  4. Thank you, TK. I hope you are improving. Whatever this virus is, it seems to be hanging on for weeks with many folks. I do hope you can rest and shake it.

    I read your great account of 78 for a second time. As I read your seeming sense something larger than we could imagine was on the way, I wonder how many of us just somehow knew it would be more than a run of the mill nor’easter? I have the sense that many did….whether they were weather buffs or not.

    We never lost power. I recall watching Dukakis (sp?) in the morning announcing that all roads were closed to everyone but essential personnel. It actually took a while to sink in that the storm could literally shut down an entire section of the state…..the hub of the state. I also remember watching the rescues along the coast and tremendous sense of sadness for so many affected.

    I seem to recall Humarock suffered but did better in 78 than in 91. Tom….you would know better than I. In 91, the house we rent was washed into the river behind the house and subsequently rebuilt and raised.

    Have you considered publishing your comments? They are exceptional.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK. Hope you are feeling a bit better this morning.

    Thank you for that awesome blizzard post. Brings back many memories.

  7. Thanks, TK…
    Hope you’re on the mend!
    Football withdrawal this weekend.
    Olympic mixed doubles curling just isn’t the same!

    Enjoy a nice weekend, everyone!

  8. Thanks TK. Plymouth, NH: -17 this morning. Brrrrrr. GFS MOS yesterday afternoon had 7. Clear skies, calm winds, and a foot of fresh snow caused the bottom to fall right out. The AWOS here is also located in a valley setting, where radiational cooling tends to be maximized.

    2. brrrrrrr – we are working with a client in the Montpelier area today. It is my understanding the temp was six degrees. If that is accurate, there is one heck of a difference between there and Plymouth.

      1. Certainly possible. On mornings like this, it’s all about location, and the lower elevation and more sheltered you are, the colder. We have another automated system on the roof of our science center, and that one “only” made it down to -6 compared to -17 in the valley a couple miles away.

  9. TK – Is the Feb. 16-19 window still open for a snow event or has the SE ridge squashed that opportunity?

  10. I really wish the rain will happen, I don’t mind temperatures in the 30s, but no rain. Its messing with my plans for the weekend 🙁

  11. Thanks TK !

    49 days past the winter solstice, 40 to the equinox.

    Yesterday, I got into my car at 3:30pm and the sun had it nice and warm, in spite of the chilly airmass. Today, when I left at 7am for school, the sun was slightly above the eastern horizon. The daylight increase is getting quite noticeable on both ends of the day.

    1. And as soon as DST returns on March 11, that morning daylight increase will disappear and have to start all over again. 🙁

  13. NWS sounding some concern in their discussion about excessive rainfall potential this weekend, including isolated river flood concerns. It does look like a fairly long duration unsettled weather event with waves of rainfall tracking along a similar axis. Greatest threat seems to be in CT, RI, and SE Mass. I’m not too concerned for flooding at this point. An unsettled weekend, but I think just about all rainfall totals should be under 3″, and many places under 2″. Without much of a snow pack on the ground, we should be able to handle that.

      1. It looks like maybe 1-3″ of snow here tonight into tomorrow, but mostly light rain and freezing rain beyond then. Not as much QPF as in SNE. Looks like only far northern New England will remain below freezing for the duration of the weekend.

          1. As it has been for about 3 weeks now, the SE Ridge is active and remains the dominant driver of our pattern. That continues for some time to come. I think TK’s forecast captures the overall pattern well. There may be at least a brief better snow/mix window for SNE around 7-10 days from now. Still dealing with a fast pattern and several minor to moderate systems moving through it.

  14. Ron Borges may well be done around here.
    I kind of like him because he’s not a rah rah fan boy reporter. But man, how dumb do you have to be not to verify who’s texting you!

    2. I do hope at least a thread of common sense will prevail; however, I do not have a lot of confidence in that. With the new approach of trying in the court of social media….what a shame. I suspect we all make mistakes. Add the pressure from corporate heads to get information out before anyone else, and I feel badly for him…..or anyone in this position.

  15. Well, don’t fell THAT bad for him. Any reporter knows to get confirmation. A text out of nowhere ought to at least throw up some red flags.
    And he was fired from the globe 11-12 years ago for allegedly plagiarizing. Although I question that a bit since the column in question was his football “notes” column. I think everyone knows the common practice of a notes column is to cull through a number of sources and combine them into a coherent synopsis. Gammon’s did the same thing for years with his baseball notes column. Borges kind of got pushed into traffic on that due to the Barnacle debacle few years earlier. Kind like paying for the sins of others. Like i said, he should have known better on this thing. He’s an experienced reporter.

    1. Problem is the Herald is for sale. And they are looking for any reason to cut staff. This put a nail in his coffin. He’ll be lucky to get a job at the weekly shopper.

    2. I will always understand that everyone makes mistakes. Just part of my makeup – one I happen to be fond of enough to keep around.

      I suspect you may be right about culling folks. Just unfortunate.

  16. Howdy folks.

    Catching up…

    I’m improving. Fever/aches/chills are gone. Cough lingers and will for a while. I could do without the headache that causes, but I’ll take what I can get.

    Vicki, as far as publishing stuff…I have not ruled out writing some type of life of a weather nut style short book at some point. I have so many stories that tie weather to life experience and then relate it to anyone who would be reading it. Would love to share those. I like turning writing into a time machine.

    Philip… WxW answered your question to me so that’s all set for now. As always updated thoughts daily as the pattern evolves.

    1. You should do that. You have a wonderful writing style and I think
      a book of that sort would sell very well. DO IT!

      1. Yeah Harvey just said a flake if that . Glad your feeling better . I read the blizzard post this morning and it was excellent.

        1. Glad you enjoyed it!

          Yes looks like a bit of a break for you. Few flakes at most there tonight. Then I see nothing for at least 7 days. Still have a distant watcher on Presidents Day Weekend. Colder air arrives late next week. Remains to be seen if the next moisture event after its arrival will take place during its stay or after its passage.

          1. I’ll take the break but may have a decent debris removal job next Saturday so I’ll need it dry .

  18. Only one run of one model, but the 18z GFS has picked up on the possible snow window I’ve been looking for in the mid-month period with a storm towards the end of next weekend. It would be a little delayed from what I would’ve originally expected, and likely not indicative of a longer term change to colder/snowier, but I would watch for something in that window. The cold may temporarily get the better of the SE Ridge, and if we can get a storm system/moisture up this way, it may provide a snow chance even in SNE. Working against us, the apparent lack of any well-defined troughing across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Will certainly not be a slam dunk, but I’ll be watching that time frame.

    2. There is definitely a short window of opportunity in there in the long weekend time-frame.

  22. The Olympic opening ceremony was good, What a display, from the sports and history of the korea peninsula and for the first time a united Korea team!!. They have a United korea hockey team that have US citizens coaching. The Olympics shows us what we all can be and should become and my god, those skiers were awesome.

    2. Loved every moment of it. Great ceremony and what a great job by the Koreans. Looking forward to the competitions. I’ll be up at 7AM watching a women’s hockey game. 😉

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