Sunday Forecast

43 Comments

12:09PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
A frontal boundary sits over southern New England allowing a couple waves of low pressure to move up along it today, resulting in wet weather. Enough cold air has been trapped in the valleys of southwestern NH and nearby north central MA for pockets of freezing rain. The final wave will pull the front north slightly and allow a wedge of warmth into southeastern areas later today and early this evening before it passes and pulls the front eastward as a cold front overnight. The weather will try to get a little dramatic with a significant temperature rise and then a band of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms accompanying the final frontal passage. After this, it settles down overnight and the first couple days of the week will be on the quiet, cooler side as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Monday then into New England Tuesday. This high will slip offshore by the middle of the week when we begin to turn milder but with a little more cloudiness as a couple disturbances move along a frontal boundary to the north of the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain with embedded moderate to heavy showers. Pockets of freezing rain through early afternoon valleys of north central MA and southern NH. Highs 35-43 central MA and southern NH, 44-52 eastern MA and RI occurring late-day. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy through midnight with frequent rain showers and a risk of thunderstorms, especially RI and southeastern MA. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Temperatures rising to 45-52 central MA and southern NH, 52-60 eastern MA and RI evening. Overnight lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod briefly, shifting to SW and diminishing.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle to upper 20s. Highs from the middle to upper 40s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Cold front moves through Friday February 16 with rain to snow showers and turning windy with falling temperatures. Fair and cold Saturday-Sunday February 17-18. Milder with a risk of rain showers Presidents Day Monday February 19, may end as snow showers Tuesday February 20 as colder air returns.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Some up and down temps but the overall pattern should be milder than average with no major storminess as it looks now, as a result of the Southeast ridge being strong enough to keep colder air in Canada from becoming dominant.

43 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. Give me Winter back OR just let’s just launch SPRING and be done with it.
      This is PUTRID Winter weather. It’s not a rainorama it’s a Suckorama.

    2. I’ll be honest. I have 2 weeks off work, enjoying olympics while I work on home projects and recover from being sick for the last 8 days. I am thrilled with this lull in harsh weather for these reasons, as well as my long range forecast. Happy camper here! 😀

    1. As long as that SE ridge dominates, there will be nothing for you to worry about until November at the very earliest. Even a light dusting may very well behind us, although yesterday TK did hint at something “sneaky” down the road.

      1. I wouldn’t be so quick to declare “nothing to worry about” until next November. You do realize it is February 11 and we are only 9 days beyond the mid point of winter. Also the pattern may not support stuff in a general sense but it does not take much for one anomaly.

        Weather is simply not that absolute.

  4. I got the impression from Barry that Boston wasn’t going to quite get into the warmer air later today. I also saw a 64 for Friday?

    1. RI and southeastern MA. People will see 60 on my forecast and think everyone is gonna get there. Nope! 🙂

  6. Thank you, TK

    Just took a ride around back roads of Sutton, Starbucks to get a citrus defender tea….recommend if you have congestion….and a farm on other side of town to pick up local honey and some of their meats. It is a nice day to just wander. Peaceful.

    1. I enjoyed the Sunday morning trek around with mom which included one extra stop to drop off some of her homemade soup at my brother’s. My brother also had a cold similar to mine this week but is getting better too.

      I was surprised how busy the grocery store was, however. It was like Sunday Social Hour in there. 😉

      1. It seems lately that every time I go to the grocery store, I always have to wonder for a few seconds if there is a major snow event on the way. No matter what time of day, the lines are long. 🙂

      2. I’m getting your mom enjoyed the morning also. Sorry your brother is not feeling well. I think I can smell the soup here 🙂

        That’s why I decided to head to the farm. I was only one there. There is a great farm in Northbridge, blackstone would know it of course, that closes until June. I’m having withdrawals so this one sort of did the trick.

  7. Thanks TK.

    I’d imagine a large portion of the Southeast US will have record or near record warm February’s this year. Our region will be solidly in positive territory as well, though we won’t challenge monthly records. A fairly typical February La Nina pattern, but with a SE Ridge impressive in its tenacity and intensity. NAO not far from +2, and the MJO locked in phase 7. Exact opposite of a typical cold/snow pattern for New England. A much different feel from recent “back-loaded” winters.

    1. It’s a wonder that there haven’t already been reports of severe weather as we are approaching that time of year.

  8. Thank you, TK!

    Strong SE ridge is a dominant player, not only in SNE but also in most of CNE. Only far NNE appears to still be under winter’s influence. Not that this weather is spring-like. It’s dismal. If I had time I’d head up to Quebec City as I did several years ago to experience some winter. QC is another 400 miles removed from SE ridge and therefore much more wintry. Alas, no time or money this year.

  9. I have a sneaky suspicion that MJO , which has been dawdling around phase 7, right on the edge of the “snowy pattern” phase, is going to drop to neutral and re-emerge in phase 1 or 2, essentially skipping phase 8.

    2. I think you’re probably right. You said it the other day though: that index is hell. Had it kept going into phase 8, I think things this month could’ve turned out different. It wouldn’t have guaranteed anything in terms of cold/snow given the strong +NAO, but I think it would’ve at least put some potential on the table. But having it stuck in phase 7, combined with the SE Ridge, is the kiss of death.

      Almost comical how long it’s been stuck there. Usually these strong pulses are fairly progressive, as this one was until it hit phase 7.

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif

        1. Then is the 29.2″ to date for Logan the final total other than maybe a few tenths additional? I don’t understand those “phases”.

          2. As I said yesterday, and previously, no, Logan is not done snowing for the season. It’s only February 11.

            1. Ok, I just thought from your discussion between you and WxW that you perhaps changed your mind from yesterday and previously. It’s just all this discussion of MJO and phases is confusing. It seems JPD is confused as well. 😀

              1. It means that the pattern is not like the one we had in late December into January.

                It’s overall mild, still somewhat active. Odds favor rain events over snow. But I never said no snow. All it takes is one wave up the back side of a cold front or something similar. I’m betting Boston needs plowing again before this season wraps up.

  10. Nice batch of t-storms went across MVY & Cape Cod. Not surprised by these. Conditions were there.

  11. I echo the post from Vicki earlier you know summer is close when the summer rental comes . Just booked the Hampton beach condo .

  17. New post!

    The timing of this weather pattern is so perfect on a personal level I can’t even tell you…

    There is still a lot to track as a weather person. Little things like timing of fronts, for example, make a big difference in forecasting.

    You’ll also find SAK’s latest posted in the comments on the new blog.

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