Monday Forecast

115 Comments

8:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
A cold front has moved offshore but moisture riding up the back side of this front is keeping some cloudiness over the region and some rain shower activity near the South Coast to start the day. A drying trend will eliminate the showers and eventually the cloudiness later today. High pressure moves across the region Tuesday with fair and seasonably chilly weather. The high will move offshore Wednesday allowing a warm up but also more cloudiness in response to warming of the air above us as well. We’ll be fully in the warm sector by Thursday but a disturbance will bring rain showers to start the day. Another cold front will move through on Friday, sending temperatures downward again. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including some rain showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Highs 38-45 central and northeastern MA through southern NH, 45-52 southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Gradually falling temperatures this afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon then increasing clouds late. Highs 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming light varaible.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs from the 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely morning. Partly cloudy and windy afternoon. Temperatures fall through the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Large scale pattern will feature building high pressure over the US Southeast. Brief shot of cold air comes out of Canada as surface high pressure moves in early in the period for fair and colder weather then a moderating trend during the weekend of February 17-18 then returning moisture and low pressure tracking north of the region February 19 (Presidents Day) may bring some rain showers to the region. Current thinking is fair but very mild weather later in the period as colder air is stuck up in Canada due to the Southeast ridge.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Some up and down temps but the overall pattern should be milder than average with no major storminess as it looks now, as a result of the Southeast ridge being strong enough to keep colder air in Canada from becoming dominant.

115 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Fever/aches/chills are gone and have been for a few days.
    The cough lasts forever and it’s a bit tiring but necessary.

    I am very early in a long work break which was pre-scheduled, just timed well. This will help. 🙂

        1. A wise man. Though getting “killed” may happen in slow motion over a stretch of 10 to 14 days thanks to a very blocked up atmosphere.

          1. OMG, a 10-14 day snow storm!!!

            COWABUNGA!!!! SNOWPOCALYPSE!!!!

            Nah, just kidding. I get you. We could get dinked and dunked with snow here and there over
            that period. 😀

  6. Thanks TK. Glad you’re starting to feel better!

    Saturday morning to be the coldest air until next winter season? Can’t call it for certain at this point in the season, but it may be possible.

    1. Early March will have something to say about that, specifically the window of February 26-March 10.

  7. Thanks, TK. Glad you are feeling better. I’ve had coughs in the past that lasted a month or 2. Hope yours gets better faster!

    Blackstone WX, Vicki and anyone else – hope you feel better soon too.

    Looks like it might be an early spring. But it’s still Feb.! As TK has said, anything weather-wise could happen. Plenty of chances for snowstorms yet. Mother Nature could change her mind at any time. Nonetheless, at this point I don’t want any more snow. Looking forward to spring and maybe an early summer. A nice, sunny, warm summer day in the 80’s with a bit of humidity sounds nice to me.

    1. We’ll have a much better opportunity for snow between February 26 and March 10 than we will between now and February 26.

      1. Just hope it is not one of these situations where we keep hearing that it is coming, it is coming, it is coming, Only for it NEVER to come. 😀

        1. A lot of the “it’s coming it’s coming” was proclaimed too strongly and too soon when the pattern was in doubt. I saw a lot of this out there. I know I, and WxWatcher, cautioned that it would not be so easy to flip back to cold due to a few reasons, the SE ridge being one of the main ones.

          1. I certainly didn’t mean you. What I had in mind was a few years ago where Dr. Cohen kept saying that the “cold” was coming. Of course, it NEVER did. 😀

  9. All of you sick bloggers have transferred your viruses and bacterial infections
    across the internet and into my house infected my wife. She has never been
    so sick in here life!! Gee thanks!!! Trip to the hospital last evening.
    Useless medical staff couldn’t tell us what was wrong, rather telling us
    only what was not wrong:

    Not pnuemonia
    Not Flu
    Not UTI
    Not any kind of heart situation going on.

    Sent her home as sick as she was arriving with orders to follow-up with her
    Primary Care Physician. Great!! Thanks a lot!!

    Seriously, lots of shit going around. Stay healthy all.

    I remain healthy and completely non-sick the whole Winter. Knock on wood
    that it stays that way.

      2. I’m glad you placed ordinary within quotes. Crazy illnesses this year. I am glad you are feeling better, TK. Blackstone, and anyone else, I sure hope you are on the mend as well.

        Seriously, MamaMia’s words were absolutely true. Rest.

    2. Hope your wife feels better soon, OS. So far (don’t want to jinx it) we have been ok but not going out that much. Sometimes I get one of these bugs at the end of the season when most people are better. Husband is hopefully getting long-awaited cataract surgery at end of month. Have had to put it off last few times due to the snowstorm and icestorm. Stay healthy, OS.

    3. So sorry to hear Mrs. OS is not feeling well. Hoping they did bloodwork. I will be five weeks Wednesday and am still struggling, and I actually behaved and rested for once. I have heard many folks say that they have never been as sick. I would agree.

      1. Thank you Vicki, Oh yeah, like 3 viles worth.
        Still, they couldn’t tell us anything.

        Mrs. OS thinks it’s GERM WARFARE!

  11. Phew – took a while to get to a new comment so I could thank you, Mr. TK. Nice that you have time off to enjoy the olympics as well as putter!!!

  12. AccuWeather’s “month plus” forecast is messed up. It has “snow or flurries” with a low of 37 and high of 51 for February 19. 😉

  13. Thank you, TK.

    While the ridge of high pressure to our southeast is dominant and will prevent winter from rearming and going full throttle I’d be shocked if we didn’t have a cold and snowy period between now and the end of March. I’m not talking lengthy period, but a week or so in which the cold that’s present but out of reach in central, eastern, and southeastern Canada invades our space one last time.

    Interesting to see squirrels rebuilding (repairing) their tree nests this morning. That’s a sign of spring, as I believe their mating season commences soon. And of course I’ll be on the look out for red-winged blackbirds. They’ll be here soon. They’re packing their bags, bidding adieu to their winter hacienda’s, and getting ready for the trip north.

    1. I will watch for the red winged little devils also. I love to see them arrive, but they torment my little song birds. I was surprised to learn that bluebirds remain in the area for the winter. We did not have bluebirds in Framingham that I saw but have a ton here. I love to watch them and have a nesting box on the hill behind the house.

        2. Thanks, Vicki for the picture. So beautiful. I have actually never ever seen a bluebird. We used to belong to the Audubon Society and walked around Broadmoor in Natick and Drumlin Farm in Lincoln some years ago. I saw the bluebird birdhouses in Natick but never saw a bluebird.

          1. I never have seen them until about Sutton. Daughter says we have six of them. I have no idea how she tells them apart enough to count. She managed to get some other amazing photos along with this one.

  14. OS, I am sorry to hear about your wife. Hope she feels well soon. This has been a brutal flu, cold, and norovirus season. Not even he SE ridge could prevent these viruses from spreading.

    1. Interesting???? You have to be kidding!! This is Fantastic!! What a read!!!
      I enjoyed it immensely!!! NICE FIND!!!

      I have seen something similar in fast water in the Charles river, particularly along either shore of the river after a water fall or other period of fast water.
      The normal flow is obviously down stream, however, there are these eddys
      that form near the shore, such that the flow along the shore is actually
      UP STREAM!! It’s actually pretty cool to see.

      If I throw my fishing bait into the down stream rapids it the right location,
      the bait will flow downstream and then sideways towards shore and then
      upstream.

      I presume these rotors are somewhat similar in the atmosphere. In the river, boulders or other bottom formations would act like the mountains or high ridge did with the moving air.

      Fascinating.

      Thank you again Vicki.

      1. And how are you using this well known acronym??

        I am sure it is not Unidentified Flying Object? Or perhaps you think it was and that the little green men used their ray guns to blast the trees.

        UnFreakin????? Something or other?????

        What am I missing?

  16. Both the GGEM (Canadian) and ICON (German) models actually have a snow threat this weekend with a storm passing to our south…

    12z GGEM:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018021212&fh=138

    12z ICON:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018021212&fh=138

    I’m sure the chances of this materializing are slim. The GFS and Euro have this wave much farther south and muted, heading due east out to sea.

    At least it should feel like winter again this coming weekend, temperature wise. Overall though, not much to look forward to for winter weather lovers the next two weeks.

    I do like the look of the 12z GFS near the end of its run (last few days of February) which does fit into the start of TK’s window for possible return of some winter weather. But we’ll see if that has any legs….

  17. NECN declared that their in-house model correctly predicted a solid overcast through the day for New England. In the end that is not going to work out so well, except maybe Nantucket.

      1. That part was expected. I meant through the end of the day. That won’t happen. Clearing trend is speeding up now as the final wave offshore goes by.

        1. I guess it depends on your definition of “through the day.” To me, sunrise till 2:30pm can be considered through the day as there’s only 2-3 more hours of daylight.

  18. Bright sun as of 2:20PM here. Right on the edge of the retreating deck so may go in and out a few times then we’re all sun from here on. This trend will accelerate southeastward. It’ll be a race between the clearing and sunset around Nantucket. Everyone else should get it.

  19. everyone being so sick now in winter only means one thing for me, This spring is gonna suck for my allergies. usually how it goes, bunch of people get sick in the winter = bad allergy season

  20. Well whooptie dee….I get to return to the doctor for a recheck…maybe acute bronchitis, maybe secondary infection. Maybe I’ll fly south for the rest of the winter. Arghhhhhhh.

    3. That’s pretty much what happened to my mom. They put her on prednisone at that point to get the inflammation under control. Even now she still has a lingering cough.

      1. Thanks all….I suspect you might know patience is not my long suit. In 68 years I have not had anything last more than the usually week to 10 days.

        TK I’ll ask about prednisone. I do have a steroid inhaler but clearly that ain’t working. I am so sorry your mom went through this.

  22. The race is on between the clearing line and sunset for Nantucket! How exciting is this?! 😉 See? It’s not a boring pattern. 😀

  24. Looking at the 12z Euro… I will definitely be spending some time in the next day or two brushing up on all time February high temperature records for the major climate sites in SNE. I believe some of them were set just last year. We may be challenging them mid next week. Well above average confidence in that time range.

    1. That’s the way it always seems to go right? Above average confidence for incoming warmth but well below average confidence whenever cold/snow is in play

      1. Not necessarily. For instance, the extreme cold in late December/early January was seen with good confidence from 7-10 days away. The potential for cold/snow during the 2015 snow blitz was seen from a good ways away. Snow is always a wild card. I don’t spend a whole lot of time trying to make long range snow predictions.

        With that said, for me at least it is a little easier to forecast anomalous warmth versus anomalous cold, simply because the odds favor more of the former than the latter given our bigger picture climate regime. I’m always conscious of the fact that we measure/verify against a 30 year mean in a climate where significant changes are occurring on scales shorter than that. So basically my rule of thumb is, if you’re going to confidently forecast anomalous cold more than 10 days out, you better have a good reason.

        1. Main reasons for the confidence on next week are the strength of the SE Ridge, as well as more sustained west-central US troughing, which should kick off a couple storms to our west. Get New England in the warm sector of one of those with that SE Ridge, and you’ll roast.

          1. Last year almost same time. We had 73 on 2-24, highest ever recorded in Boston for February. It was also 68 on 2-23.

    1. We almost always see some fan-out on the back side. I’ve watched 2 of those take place over the last several hours and the second one is sliding across the sky now as high/thin cloudiness. Could jazz up the sunset!

  26. I guess we can put the 2.2″ for the month at Logan in the books and the 29.2″ for the season to date still TBD. It will be interesting how close to the seasonal norm Logan gets.

    14.6″ would be required. I suspect a lot to ask. 😉

    1. You said that yesterday and I told you then, and will tell you again, we CANNOT do that. It’s February 12. Is it a good practice to say their 2.2 inch is their final with 16 days to go in the month just because the medium range models don’t have a pattern that looks like it adds much?

      I don’t really have to answer this question. 🙂

      Anyone want to go in on a bet with me that Boston’s February snowfall will be greater than 2.2 inches? Any challengers? 🙂

    1. Ah memories. I was often busier with my tropical updates during this time of year than I was other times, especially when the southern hemisphere was very active.

  28. 12z Euro torch for middle of next week….showing low 70’s in a good portion of SNE (except Logan which remains locked in the 40’s with a seabreeze…LOL):

    https://s14.postimg.org/7w02mss8x/imageproxy.png

    Not sure I am really buying that it gets this warm though. Euro a few runs ago had it hitting 70 later this week and backed off considerably. CMC and GFS are mild as well next week, but nearly to the extreme of the Euro.

      1. Euro has been consistent. GFS has had it warmer down in the mid Atlantic on most runs and had it on the 12z today.

  29. On this evening’s Jeopardy episode, Alex announced from the start that he has a bad head cold and apologized in advance for his voice. Just like 100 years ago back in 1918, this flu epidemic is going to have to run its course, unfortunately. Hard to believe though that medical science isn’t really any further ahead in any real relief, let alone a cure for influenza and the common cold.

    1. There will never be a cure or vaccine for the common cold. That’s why they call it common. Waaaay too many strains and they mutate too much to even try. Influenza on the other hand…We need to stop growing the virus in chicken eggs if we want any chance of getting it right.

      1. Well, its part of the sport, you see a few of those all time time, been in some myself when I raced. PS those fences hurt, but rather the fence than the trees. This track also is not used alot by these skiers.

  32. When Northeastern wins the Beanpot championship tonight I’ll be 4 for 4 on predicting the games in this tournament. 😉

  33. Don’t want to jinx it, but Northeastern on the verge of winning its first Beanpot in 30 years! 4-1 Huskies with 10 minutes to go.

  36. I think ECMWF has right idea next week and with lack of snow cover look for much above for areas away from the coast mid week next week. I the idea of a last gasp winter run but it is brief and later if at all. Slow to breakdown and retrograde think more March 10-20 for 7-10 day slightly below normal period.

    That said it only takes one anamalous system to in the next 20 days to make it significantly white again or vice versa cold and dry days during the mid March favorable time frame, but high to the north misplaced enough to allow the lows to travel west of us.

    Best guess at this point Boston ends up around 36” of snow.

  39. 00z GFS has nada for the weekend. It does try to bring something up the coast on Monday but in the form of rain as the cold air has retreated by then.

    1. And in contrast to the ECMWF’s 70+ on Wednesday, this model has a snow/rain mix in southern NH on Wednesday.

      1. These models are on two different planets for early-mid next week. In reality it probably ends up somewhere in between. I’m just not buying the record warmth.

  40. 70s? Doubt it, but I could be wrong. Days in the 50s for areas of SNE and yes 60 is possible. Overall look for variable temps with days in 50s mixed with days of winter like chill in the 30s.

    ICON model? We are now in a bannaland snow hunt.

Comments are closed.