Friday Forecast

87 Comments

9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
2 cold fronts will push through the region, one this morning, and one this evening. Areas of rain showers will be around ahead of and along the first front, and a rain or snow shower may accompany the second one in a few locations. The second front will mark the arrival of modified arctic air which will become established through Saturday, setting the stage for a winter precipitation event Saturday night as a developing wave of low pressure exits the northern Mid Atlantic and passes just south of New England. This will be a quick event with light to borderline moderate snowfall amounts and the chance of some rain near the South Coast, and will be out of here by early Sunday. A warm-up will follow this as a ridge of high pressure builds across the southeastern US through early next week. A surface warm front has to come through here later Monday and this may be accompanied by cloudiness and some rainfall, but by Tuesday we should see a preview of spring.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and areas of fog morning. Isolated late-day rain showers except rain or snow showers southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 45-52 in the morning, cooling through the 40s afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast late evening, peaks overnight, and tapers off southwest to northeast around dawn, except mixing with or changing to rain along the immediate South Coast. Snow accumulation of 2-5 inches expected in most areas, except 1-3 inches in southwestern NH and nearby north central MA, and 1-2 inches of wetter snow MA South Shore through South Coast and less than 1 inch Nantucket. Lows 24-31 but rising to 32-38 South Shore of MA and South Coast. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of lingering snow except mix/rain South Coast early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH early shifting to W and diminishing to around 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Upper air pattern supports warmth but surface pattern may send a cold front southward to cut off what would otherwise by an anomalously warm day February 21. Will keep an eye on it. Episodes of unsettled weather with a cooler to colder trend thereafter. Cannot rule out some mix/snow.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Similar pattern, near a boundary with the cooler to colder side probably winning out, and episodes of unsettled weather which may include some frozen precipitation.

87 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Is it me or were people mistakenly thinking this was a threat for a major snowstorm? It’s a threat of light to moderate, with moderate only being achievable with a perfect scenario. I have taken 1 inch of my preliminary #’s, which is actually a very minor adjustment. Most of the snowfall amounts will be in the minor category.

    2. This is perfect.

      A snowfall that can’t cancel school and if I can sleep late Sunday or not look out the window til just after noon, most of it might be melted. And then, it can warm up early next week for vacation.

    3. No way. I was merely hoping for the higher end like 5 or 6 inches, not the lower
      end of 1 or 2 inches, which now looks like the end result. 😀

  3. I know this may not be the best place to ask this question but I value your opinion’s(usually…..sometimes ).

    This question is about home vacation rentals up in the White Mountains. If you are looking to rental a vacation home for your family in lieu of staying at a resort or hotel, what type of home would you rent? Obviously the home needs to be larger enough to fit everyone in the family along with a great location and area amenities. But would you be looking to stay at a home with a more rustic feel to it with wood burning stove, wood paneling with vaulted ceiling and high windows? Or would you be more interested in a more modern home with modern furnishings?

  6. Still 36 hours away from the start of this event. I have no doubt there will be more model waffling back and forth in the track and amplification of this thing through the course of the day and into tomorrow AM.

    1. I suppose that is possible, but the current trends SUCK!

      Will Boston even make it to 30 inches for the Season?

  8. And then the 12z GFS comes in and slightly increases its snowfall forecast over the 06z run – just to mess with Dave. 😉

    1. To be sure. This is a strange business to be sure. However, to mess
      with us even more, the GFS clearly introduces RAIN/MIX into the equation
      SE of the City, yet that Sucker is WAAAAY off shore. Go figure.

  10. Don’t lose sight of the negative factors involved. WxW has pointed them out since we were talking about this. There are positive factors to if you’re looking for some snow, but in the end it’s just going to be what tips the balance as the system comes through. We can’t underestimate the flat fast flow and very brief window of opportunity just as we can’t underestimate plentiful available moisture. If you had a slightly more amplified and slower-moving system, we’d be talking 6+ for everyone who didn’t mix.

  13. So this is what I did. Obviously if you read above I only took about 1 inch off the snowfall forecast. I don’t like being too reactive to one NAM run. The GFS has had the idea of lower amounts for a good set of runs now, but other guidance was higher, so while giving weight to the GFS and knowing the flatness of the pattern, I kind of blended it all. I took an inch off my range somewhat reactive to the 12z NAM. We know the NAM can run wet but it really has not been all that bad this season so I can’t completely ignore its ideas overall, and that includes an adjustment. All the while keeping in mind that the 2 negatives for snow can easily outweigh the 4 positives that I listed yesterday. It’s not about the number, but the magnitude of each.

    I remain open to reducing the snow forecast further, or even adding to it, depending on how things look as we go through the next 30 hours.

    But in the end, what are we actually talking about? A couple tenths of an inch of precipitation difference. Most of you wouldn’t notice, or wouldn’t CARE, if this was a straight rain event. But something about snow drives the collective population into a frenzy which I have yet to fully understand. So those couple tenths melted may make an inch or 2 difference in how much snow falls, and this has a giant impact on people, even in a small event. It’s actually somewhat funny to me. I have to admit to doing alot of snickering behind the scenes. 😉

      1. No, not making fun of you. I’m talking about society in general. Watch the news. Snow flurries in the forecast and it’s the TOP STORY!

        1. 😀 😀 😀

          Just busting your chops.

          Frankly with all that is going on, I could give 2
          shits about whether it snows or rains or does nothing.
          (this time around anyway)

    2. An inch or 2 of snow does NOT matter when talking about a bunch of snow
      as in 10 inches vs 12 inches.

      But when we are talking about 2 inches vs 4 inches, it is a big difference, to me anyway. 😀

      I’ll go with what the EURO has to say in a bit

  15. Thanks TK. I’m in good agreement with your thoughts on this. Some of the 12z guidance (GFS, CMC/RGEM) bumping the QPF numbers back up just a little bit, as well as being a little warmer. Nothing out of the ordinary. All in all, looks like a minor event from both an accumulation perspective and a timing perspective.

      1. At this point my guess would be that most of the winter storm watch area will be replaced with a winter weather advisory, either in this evening’s update or tomorrow morning. I wouldn’t have the confidence to place a winter storm warning anywhere. I don’t see many if any places getting the 6″ needed for a warning. We’ll see what the 12z Euro shows though, they’ll likely weigh that pretty heavily.

  16. Everyone, understand that we still have nearly 36 hours to go with still plenty of wiggle room before the flakes arrive. 😉

  17. 12z UKMET still rather bullish on qpf

    15-20 mm or roughly 06. to 0.8 inch.

    Wonder what the Euro will have to Say?

  18. A huge part of the problem I see is that as more and more people seem to get weather information exclusively from weather app icons they don’t seem to notice the snowflake icon remains the same for either 2 inches or two feet. All Snow becomes hyped into a single image that evokes a sense of impending disaster at first glance. There are plenty of apps this winter that have showed a snowflake icon virtually every day while the “fine print” may state “10% chance.” At first look you’d think “gonna snow every day this week….” that is exactly what’s meant to be invoked – you’ll keep checking the app.

    1. I see people post screen shots of apps that have a snowflake on 4 out of 5 days, for example, and some exclamation like “Snow?! for the next 5 days?! REALLY?!?!” .. And I just have to shake my head.

      Then when it doesn’t snow for 4 days straight with 5 feet of accumulation, they jump all over the “weather people” for hyping up the “storm” that wasn’t actually coming anyway.

  20. After seeing all 12z guidance I’m happy with the slight adjustment I made. Will peak at 18z’s then re-evaluate again with 00z info.

    1. Based on their 3PM snow map, they will be leaving them up for now. They are nervous because the 3km NAM has some 6+ amounts down there.

    1. 18Z RDPS

      Kuchera Snow (3 inches Boton)

      http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018021618/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      10:1 Snow (4 inches Boston)

      http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018021618/048/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

      WRF-ARW 10:1 Snow

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2018021612/wrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.png

      WRF-ARW2 10:1 snow

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2018021612/wrf-arw2_asnow_neus_48.png

      WRF-NMM 10:1 snow

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2018021612/wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_48.png

  26. I guess it’s hard to ignore the amount of moisture available for this system. If a band or 2 sets up, it can be good for someone getting 2 inches of snow in one hour. It would be fairly localized if it happened.

  29. The GFS has been completely clueless on this storm. Inconsistent throughout the week and an outlier from other guidance.

    This storm is going to be ICONIC!

  30. Speaking of the ICON (which has been incredibly consistent with the strength/track of this system since early Monday morning), it has about 0.5″ QPF for most areas south of the Pike and 0.3-0.5″ north which would support the WSW’s in the area that the NWS has them.

    Perhaps this model just got lucky, but it got my attention with the way it handled this storm, sniffing it out early and then remaining consistent from 5 days out.

    1. Then again, the storm hasn’t happened yet so we will reserve judgment but at this point it seems like we are past the question of whether or not we are going to see a plowable snow and more just pinning down the accumulation ranges. I’ll have to say though I am increasingly liking our odds for seeing 5 or 6″ here in much of CT.

  31. Do we have an ETA for snowfall around the 495 belt? We have a double date planned for tomorrow night (for parents and kids) but want to make sure our friends can get back to Stow from Concord safely after dinner.

  33. SREF is quite aggressive. Don’t be surprised if the 0z NAMs come in that way as well. There’s still some potential on the table for localized 6” amounts, but this will remain low confidence to the last minute. Recall the SREF did perform the best with the surprise snowstorm a couple weeks ago. I agree with TK that there could be one or two heavy bands which produce a jackpot zone or two. Definitely watch the hi res guidance.

  35. Looks like the GEFS teleconnectors bscked off a bit on the magnitude of the -AO, NAO,and positive PNA.
    Deep winter ain’t walking through that door, until next winter probably.

    1. They have actually been going back and forth. We’ll dive into -NAO for a couple weeks but a lot of it will take place in the first half of March.

    2. I want a few solid weeks of winter, I have only gotten out once to go skiing back january, Hoping for a few good weeks be it now or in early march, I don’t care, i just want good snow conditions. Especially when I race, last time it was this warm, it did not end well.

  37. As TK also mentioned, there really is a lot of moisture with this for such a small storm. If it were to amplify just a little more a little sooner, we would get a solid 6-8” event. The fast flow is working hard to prevent that from happening though. As of right now I still generally agree with TK’s ranges from earlier, but may it may be necessary to add a 4-6”’contour for parts of interior CT, RI, and eastern MA, with 2-4 north and south of there. Not huge changes, but just honing in on it a little more. For Logan, I would guess 3-4 right now.

    1. The 6 potential is going to be wherever a band or 2 sets up. As we’ve seen with these before, it’s not always “closer to the center”. They can be out quite a distance even in the smaller systems, in a relative sense of course.

  38. Im gonna take advantage of the snow this weekend. going to WAWA. I am gonna wake up early sunday and hit them fresh trails.

Comments are closed.