1:11AM
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
High pressure dominates today with seasonably cold but dry weather, but it slides offshore and a wave of low pressure moves east northeastward very rapidly along the boundary of warm and cold air to the south of New England bringing a light to moderate snowfall tonight, which will exit by Sunday morning. Another high pressure area moves in Sunday returning sunshine to the region. This high is not of very cold origin and therefore it will be fairly mild and much of the snow that falls during Saturday night will melt during Sunday. A warm front will approach Monday with a late-day or nighttime rain risk, and then anomalous warmth will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds over the southeastern US and a southwesterly air flow takes over. We’ll have to watch a cold front to the north during Wednesday as this will mark the end of that significant warm-up, but it remains to be seen if it will arrive during or after Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast mid to late evening, peaks overnight, and tapers off southwest to northeast around dawn, possibly mixing with or briefly changing to rain immediate South Coast, Cape Cod and Islands. Snow accumulation of 3-6 inches expected in most areas, except 1-3 inches in southwestern NH and nearby north central MA, and 1-3 inches of wetter snow Cape Cod and Islands. A couple small areas of bands of 6 or 7 inches are possible favoring interior southeastern MA, possibly Cape Ann MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Lows 24-31 but to the middle 30s Cape Cod overnight. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Clouds Cape Cod early otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH early shifting to W and diminishing to around 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Highs 40-47. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the 50s south-facing shores to 60s elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the middle 50s south-facing shores to 60s to near 70 interior. May turn sharply cooler north to south late day or evening.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
May start unsettled then dry out as it cools February 22. Will have to watch the February 23-26 period for 1 or 2 threats of unsettled weather that may include frozen or freezing precipitation for parts of the region. This will be caused by a pattern that remains warm in the US Southeast but much colder in Canada placing New England in the battle zone between the two.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Similar pattern, near a boundary with the cooler to colder side probably winning out, and episodes of unsettled weather which may include some frozen precipitation. During this time we will be watching the large scale pattern for a possible transition to a blocking set-up.
TK thank you. Never uninteresting around these parts.
That’s how it goes when you live “on the edge”. 😉
Thank you TK. I gather snow almost a certainty for March? Any chance Logan can get close to normal snowfall?
Always a chance.
Is Logan about 15 inches below the seasonal snowfall average ? Then, yes. Not a certainty, but if there’s some blocking and it’s set up correctly, then the cold air will be available to work with any moisture. I’d randomly assign a 30 to 40% chance at ending with average seasonal snowfall.
There is certainly a chance. I think they fall short but not by all that much.
WSW just south of Boston to the CC Canal and South Coast.
WWA Boston north.
It was nice seeing even a slither of daylight walking out the door on my way to work then even more upon arrival. Unfortunately my morning light increase will be short lived when we return to “you know what” on March 11 and will have to start all over again for another few weeks of darkness. I find it interesting that people get so depressed during evening darkness but not morning darkness as well.
It is nice, isn’t it? For 6 weeks or so, my wake up time was still completely dark outside and now it’s light again.
It’s because most people don’t care about morning darkness since they are up just getting ready for work. When they get home they want to do stuff outside. Ride a bike, play outside with the kids, do something in the yard, etc.
Thanks TK !
The Canada cold lurks at the northern edge of Hudson Bay to southern parts of Nunavut, where the current temperatures are 45 to 50 below zero !!!
I remember something similar a year or 2 ago, where the February break was. Dry warm and seeing a similar batch of frigid air in the same general spot and then the pattern changed and it was a very cold March. However, it wasn’t during a La Niña, so hopefully, as you’ve mentioned, the cold won’t last as long this March.
(Where the Feb break was warm)
It could be interesting to see the La Niña traditional pattern (SE ridge) combined with some northern latitude blocking play out.
I’m sure there are past years where this has happened, so it’s probably easy to get an idea of what has happened under similar conditions in the past.
Imagine contrasting the SE warmth of a slightly suppressed SE ridge with the cold or very cold air in SE Canada and New England due to some high latitude blocking. There should probably be opportunities in there for lots of overrunning precip or one decent storm to travel along the temp gradient.
Sorry everyone, it’s school break, I’ve been released from a very busy schedule and it’s good to have a chance to get back into the weather. 🙂 🙂
Yeah, I’m not interested at all in sleet and freezing rain for a month. 🙁
Thanks TK. Hi res guidance trending up on snowfall. We just may pull off a perfect “thread the needle” scenario tonight.
It’ll be all gone by Tuesday at the latest. Our record breaking warmth remains on track for midweek.
Yup. I re-established my first guess and may add a top end “locally heavier” type of thing to that.
Thanks TK.
Some of you may know that long distance radio listening (AM, FM, HF, etc) is a big hobby of mine. One thing that I’ve come across is that many stations like to screw around (ad lib) with the weather forecasts. A prime example is one our local NPR stations in the morning that can basically give 3 different variations of a weather forecast in a 20 minute period (kind of like they are looking at 3 different Android Wx apps).
This morning I’m tuning around the AM band and I’ve got a station on 900 khz WGHM out of Nashua..running 910 watts (not very powerful). They are a rebroadcaster of WGAM out of Manchester. I’m sure they are automated/voice tracked on weekends and I’m listening to the break between songs and I hear the weather forecast for the weekend….Last Weekend LOL…rain..temps in the 40s. 🙂
Last weekend hahaha!!
Hey do you know when there is supposedly a new station coming on the air in the Worcester area on 99.1FM? The 99.1FM (WPLM) out of Plymouth MA has been running announcements about their listeners to the west and north not being able to hear them anymore because of this new station and tell them to go to the web page for info on how to listen still.
Looks like there is Construction Permit in the FCC database for a translator W256DN. Translators are low power and this one is only 25 watts. Normally that would not be enough to put out any sort of interference to a station like WPLM but PLM’s contours are just on the edge out there and so yes this station will hurt PLM’s fringe reception. Completely legal as the FCC on really takes into account 1st and 2nd contours. The translator in question will be rebroadcasting an AM signal from WNEB 1230 khz located in the Worcester area. The links below are the service contour maps for both WPLM and WNEB. As of today there are no service contour maps available for W256DN. https://radio-locator.com/cgi-bin/patg?id=WPLM-FM https://radio-locator.com/cgi-bin/patg?id=WNEB-AM
Thanks!
Good morning and thank you TK.
12Z NAM Kuchera snow from Pivotal Weather (about 4 inches for Boston)
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018021712/030/snku_acc.us_ne.png
10:1 Snow (4 inches for Boston)
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018021712/030/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
Latest 9Z SREF 12 hour snow
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f027.gif
6Z RDPS Kuchera snow (4 inches boston)
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018021712/030/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
6Z 3km NAM kuchera snow (12z cooking) (5 inches boston)
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018021706/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Last night’s Euro has 3-4 inches for Boston.
3-6 inches sounds like a reasonable and solid forecast.
A couple of comments:
1. This thing is already showing signs of being pretty juiced up.
2. Some models depict this becoming a 980 mb system just off shore of SNE. IF that intensifies just a bit sooner?????
radar
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php
Water Vapor
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=04&size=small&endDate=20180217&endTime=-1&duration=12
3km NAM just about out far enough. I can say that snow totals are UP
over the 6Z run. Did TK say something about isolated higher totals????
12z 3km NAM
Kuchera snow (6 inches boston)
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018021712/027/snku_acc.us_ne.png
10:1 snow (8 inches boston)
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018021712/027/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
If this system wasn’t so progressive, we would easily be forecasting in feet.
If it weren’t progressive, it would probably be an inside runner or even a cutter and we would have rain. But I hear you, imagine with this moisture and some
high latitude blocking and the trough in the right position to bring it up
the coast, but just far enough off to keep it snow. That would be something for sure.
Now I am just hoping that Logan comes in closer to 6 than 3.
6 would bring Logan up to about 35 inches on the Season.
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEVyGEPohaP_IAHiVx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTEyY2ZhY3BuBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM0BHZ0aWQDQjQzMTJfMQRzZWMDc3I-/RV=2/RE=1518907141/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fradar.weather.gov%2fradar_lite.php%3frid%3dpah%26product%3dN0R%26loop%3dyes/RK=2/RS=8Fpq4CEZ2fGqLI1H_aIxbdcvOYo-
HRRR does NOT appear to be buying what the NAMs are selling.
As of the 13z run, it definitely looks a little more suppressed/drier, but is not all that different and also still has a couple hours of snow to go as the run ends. I’ll certainly be watching it. I would note too that it seems to be initializing the heaviest precip a little too far south.
At Baker Lake, northwest of Hudson Bay, it is currently 49F below zero and the wind chill is -82F.
There is an extreme cold warning in effect, which is impressive when one considers that the average high for today’s date is 17F below zero.
Barry’s favorite town. He gave them his usual “shout out” on his newscast this morning. 🙂
He sure does.
Barry tweeting about a potential cold and snowy march due to blocking from the sudden stratospheric warming—whatever that means.
Interesting how “warming” and “cold & snowy” used in the same sentence. 😉
I believe the warning is taking place way high up in the atmosphere, higher than where passenger jets fly.
Anyhow, ssw has had a history of seeing colder weather in the troposphere in the US following their occurrences.
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrBT82ZRIha1TwAowZx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTEyZ2FpZGhmBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjQzMTJfMQRzZWMDc3I-/RV=2/RE=1518908698/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fen.m.wikipedia.org%2fwiki%2fSudden_stratospheric_warming/RK=2/RS=pN.xy9sBDOG7feoK8ZQP_2cgLcA-
March has headache written all over it… definitely looks like a blocking pattern will set up to our north. But a solidly negative PNA makes things very tricky. I think there’s more “big ticket” potential than we’ve seen in February, but it’s entirely possible much of that potential remains untapped from a storminess perspective. I don’t envy those under pressure to make a monthly forecast.
By your tone, it would seem that short term forecasts during March could be tricky at times as well.
going skiing this weekend, then possibly being able to bike to school later this week. I wish it would just stay winter till at least my winter/spring break in March. usually go out a few times around that time, but with the way the weather pattern is, does not look good.
12Z GFS wants to introduce rain all the way up to Boston and a somewhat beyond.
It was been the warmest solution model of all.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018021712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030
12Z GFS Kuchera snow from Pivotal Weather
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021712/027/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Sure is …. even where it has snow, the bulls eyes are all in elevated areas.
I would completely toss the GFS on this one.
Blend the NAMs, HRRR and RAP, RDPS and HRDPS. Have a look at SREF and the WRF Mesos. I will still take one last look at the Euro when it is available around 1:30 ish or so.
i would like that solution, more snow for ski areas.
So it’s looking like a plowable event in the city what 3-5. I suspect I’ll be called in by 8 for duty so much for long weekend but I suspect I’ll be out by mid morning tomorrow.
Barry is talking about the pattern I have referred to for the first half of March. I’m good with that outlook right now. I’m not sure it turns out incredibly snowy, but the opportunity for it will be there.
After that lets go, it’s back to mild.
very generalized but do you think
march = cool normal to above normal precip
april= warm
may= cool
I’m actually in the process of making my forecast for those 3 months…
Early ideas are:
* About -2 temp departure first half of March balanced by +2 departure second half of the month. Wet first half, dry 2nd half. So it comes out normal / normal.
* April temps about +1 departure with below normal precip
* May temps above +1 departure with near normal precip
* One anomalously late snowfall, measurable in some areas
TK – Regarding that last note, are you hinting at an April snow event?
April or early May? It’s happened.
I’ll take just enough snow for Logan to reach normal for the season. (43.8″)
GOES infrared
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-07-96-1-100
RAP Showing a bit of amplification
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018021715/019/500hv.conus.png
Up at Killington today. Beautiful weather and great views. Trail cover and conditions are good. Powder conditions on some of the steep terrain that they are pounding with the snow guns. But boy is it crowded and the lift lines are long. This is typically the busiest ski weekend of the year so not really unexpected.
sneak over to Pico– never a crowd 🙂
Does Roundtop still exist? That used to be a good alternative.
Don’t recognize that one
Probably would have been a good idea! Heading to the canyon area next…never a line at that lift.
Mark just like MassBay said, go to Pico, never crowded and to be honest can have way better conditions.
12z CMC
kuchera snow
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018021712/054/snku_acc.us_ne.png
10:1 snow
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018021712/054/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
Maps from around the dial: https://i.imgur.com/yjYFQ5D.jpg
Love this stuff. I couldn’t tell which station some were??
Channels 4,5,7,25,WBTS 10 (NBC Boston/NECN), NWS.
12Z UKMET qpf in mm
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/accum/PA_000-036_0000.gif
Most of Eastern MA in 15-20 mm, “roughly” 0.6 to 0.8 inch.
This model has been consistent with this amount of qpf for days.
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/accum/PA_000-036_0000.gif
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_024_0000.gif
oops
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_018_0000.gif
You think my place old salty 3 or 5 and will it have trouble sticking at first . Pretty nice out today not cold like I thought
If you mean Children’s campus, then somewhere
between 3 and upwards of 6. Who knows for certain.
Sticking? I know it is near 40, but the Dew Point is 11.
When it starts to snow, that temperature will drop like
a rock. It was cold overnigh so surfaces cooled off. Imho, that snow will start sticking very quickly, especially after intensity picks up a bit.
Temps are right where they were forecast to be. I don’t think there will be much trouble with sticking because it will go from nothing to moderate snow in the course of about 1 hour, or less.
Ok thanks sounds like fun
Here is the leading edge of precipitation
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=ccx&loop=yes
SAK has written a blog about tonight’s event and looking ahead into next week as well.
Here it is… https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2018/02/17/a-saturday-night-special/
Get his ass back here . It’s a shame he left .
Dew point depressions in SNE are near 30 degrees at the moment.
One year ago today my wife started going into labor. At 3am the next morning our son was born. We took him home 6 days later in 70+ degree warmth. It’s been a crazy year 🙂
Might have a run at 70 very close to the same time this year. 🙂
Crazy huh?
Bernie Rayno about three hours ago
https://twitter.com/AccuRayno?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Leaving Natick at 4:30 am to get to hopefully park at Logan at 6:00 am—fingers crossed
Good luck Dave, hope it works out !!
According to Barry so far temps are averaging +3.6F so with the anomalous warmth next week, I would imagine February 2018 somewhere in the top 10 warmest on record?
12z Euro snow
https://imgur.com/a/hN2Ev
Milky sky appearance.
17-18z RAP/HRRR runs coming in with some notable shifts southward/less amplified. Keeping QPF down. As expected, still some uncertainty right to the last minute.
Keep me posted WX love your forecasts
Thanks! Boston area should end up anywhere from 3-6, right in TK’s range.
Let’s hope 3 in the medical area and not 6. Also hoping it just shuts off first light so we can clean up and get home at a decent time but the day will be a wash after up all night .
Just got the call !!
Good luck. No changes to my forecast.
Do you think medical on low end or high end I thought you had 3 yesterday
They could land anywhere in the range depending on where banding sets up as the storm goes by.
Radar echos are sliding more Eastward than anything. Not a whole lot of movement
to the North. Need a bit of shift in the motion.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php
I don’t know if this means much for tonight but Logan continues to be at 32F, the coldest location in SNE…with a stiff due east wind no less while most of central/western MA have temps mid-upper 30’s. A thermometer malfunction at Logan??
Any indication of snow amounts for tonight based on this temp contrast?
The dry air will have a say. Temps will drop a few to several degrees at the start of the snow. Also, I don’t see any significant issues with the temperature gauges around the region. They all look ok to me.
18z NAM run is a little more realistic.
HRDPS seems to have a handle.
HRRR 20z not bad either.
Wildcard now is any banding. Nothing has a lot of time for a lot of impact.
mobile now, but looking st binghampton ny radar, clearly see northward moving echos.
Knowing the storm motion is east-northeast, that is how you tell that the precipitation area is expanding, which would be expected as the storm develops.
Driving thru Springfield, snow has started here and is picking up quickly in intensity. 32 degrees
Flurries have started in North Attleboro.
Evening update…
No changes. Leaning toward the high end of my ranges and like that 6+ in a couple bands favoring pike area south but not immediate coast.
Thanks TK. Keep us posted as always.
What do you think for us? I am guessing at least 4″ in Woburn.
Nothing here in Dorchester yet. I assume the same at Logan as well.
I think the 3-6 range for our region looks good based on observations, radar, and HRRR trends. Some places will only see 3. Many get 4-6. A few may get 7-8, but those should be exceptions and may not occur at all. Will depend on the banding as TK said.
Look at those echoes! Too bad it looks like it’s moving more east than North East. There has to be insane snowfall rates there. I hope as the storm strengths we see a heavy snow band move from west to east affecting eastern mass. Also back edge is already in central Pennsylvania. Fast movet for sure ( as expected) I was hopin to see it perhaps slow down a bit as it gets stronger rapidly.
Forgot to post the link https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/pa/philadelphia/dix/?region=hfd
Record highs for next week:
2/20/1930 = 68F*
2/21/1906 = 63F*
Very impressive considering these record temps were set during pre-global warming.
Just got back home in Coventry CT and it’s really coming down. Everything is covered and road conditions are rapidly deteriorating. Down to 30 here.
Steady snow in the city. Been snowing lightly for about 25 minutes or so.
So far, NOT impressed with anything I am seeing.
Radar looks sick. Hopefully, that improves. Best echos way to the South.
Storm is still in the process of developing. Precip shield should fill in and expand north over the next few hours.
Your patience JPD is impeccable! 😀
Man you crack me up . It just started the juice is around midnight . Man relax you got your snow be happy .
Snowing in marshfield. With the marginal temps and the sun today (solar noon angle now at 36 degrees), I wonder if the snow accumulation of most pavements will be only 1/4 to 1/2 of what ends up on the grass and trees.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10S/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
One thing on my bucket list is to go to Australia. And I want to go to northwest Australia around this time of year and watch one of these cyclones that strengthen after landfall, like this one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10S/imagery/vis-animated.gif
Hoping for a big Charlie hole over Sterling tonight :). Anyways been reading the blog mostly lately and can’t help but notice Vicki hasn’t posted the past couple of days. Hope she is ok.
I was thinking about Vicki as well. Hope she doesn’t have the flu that’s been going around.
I’ve talked to Vicki recently and am happy to report she is good.
Good to hear thanks Tom.
This is the busiest after dinner time seen on this blog in quite awhile. Lately posts stop after 5:00 pm or so, never resuming until TK posts a new update the next morning or later.
I regularly check throughout the evenings and late at night however. It is part of my nightly rounds.
Been snowing in the city but nothing sticking as of now . It’s warm in the city I was expecting colder .I know things will be changing .
The pavements aren’t accumulating here either. I believe this is due to the light intensity snow and the decent amount of stronger feb sun the dark pavements took in today before the clouds increased late afternoon.
All the snow til now was “bonus” snow. No changes to fcst as of now. Mobile. Checking 00z soon.
snowing here for a while, roads have a slippery layer of snow on the side roads. This snow is of very small flakes, dry air is eating away at it in Billerica.
You’re about to get help from the west.
Nice coating West Newton
Roads are real slippery in Worcester area. I’m probably closing in close to 2″.
Moderate to heavy snow continues in Coventry, CT. Mounting up fast. We are closing in on 3”.
28 degrees
Heavy snow in Marshfield.
Tom I bet we get more down there than here in Boston .
It’s Possible.
That was forecast as more likely than not.
Just watched Ryan Hanrahan on NBC 30. Reports of 8” so far in Bridgewater CT, 6” in Newtown and Seymour, and 5” in West Hartford. His snow accumulation map has been updated to show a swath of 8-10” in SW CT and 4-8” throughout much of the rest of the State.
Up to 4” here now. Lightened up for a bit now picking up again.
Snow reports thus far from NWS Upton. Several 7 and 8” reports from northern NJ into SW CT.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Early snow reports from Taunton:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
still not impressed.
I’m with you now I’m not impressed with only a few more hours to go . I’m talking Boston when I say not impressed .
What was it that you guys were expecting?
You’re also verifying a storm that’s half way through…
Maybe they were expecting a surprise blizzard?
That would be rather silly…
This will turn out to be one of the better-forecast systems of the entire season.
Tk what time does this storm start in the city . I don’t think low end numbers will even verify so far and it’s after 1:30
It started around 9.
I’m 4-7 and it’s more than half way through
It’s not more than half way through.
Did anyone actually listen to my forecast?
We also need to let the storm occur before we verify it.
Logan is at 2 inches. I forecast 3-6 for Logan. They’ll get into the range.
There has been no heavy bursts here all night just light & steady. It was snowing here just after 8.
Basically as it was forecast to be. The heavier bursts were forecast as possible, not definite. And as I said, the system is in progress, not finished. I think you’ll find that the snowfall forecast was correct when this is over. So again I’m not sure what people are expecting here. You may also notice in my actual forecast above, I never used the term “heavy”.
When you hear a forecast of “3-6 inches”, that does NOT mean that there will magically be 6 inches covering every surface before the storm actually happens. I thought this was kind of obvious.
It means that the expected total total snowfall upon the CONCLUSION of the storm will range from a MINIMUM of 3 inches to a MAXIMUM of 6 inches, assuming the forecast is correct.
In addition, there are some surfaces that do not accumulate as much snow as other surfaces. This must be taken into account as well. For example, a PRE-TREATED concrete surface will probably melt some of the snowfall, and therefore the snowfall total there will be less. The snowfall forecast is for a surface that will not eliminate any or all of the snow during or immediately after its occurrence.
This is a quote from the above forecast: “TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast mid to late evening, peaks overnight, and tapers off southwest to northeast around dawn, possibly mixing with or briefly changing to rain immediate South Coast, Cape Cod and Islands. Snow accumulation of 3-6 inches expected in most areas, except 1-3 inches in southwestern NH and nearby north central MA, and 1-3 inches of wetter snow Cape Cod and Islands. A couple small areas of bands of 6 or 7 inches are possible favoring interior southeastern MA, possibly Cape Ann MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT.”
Tk old salty and I were saying not impressed with the storm in Boston at all. We are not mocking your forecast here . As of now in the city it’s barely plowable. It sounds like Logan might achieve your low end numbers being at 2 inches as of now . Get some rest you stay up too late my friend. By the way condo is booked
The city will achieve them as well.
Pavement is not where the official measurement is taken.
Closing in on 5” here and looks like mostly lighter stuff from here on out. I would agree the storm is behaving pretty much as expected.
I swear the collective public hears “3-6” and think that somehow exactly SIX inches will be on the ground instantly, BEFORE the storm occurs!! GAAAAHHH!!! 😛
Just a broom brusher system like I expected. Not even breaking out the shovel. lol
Agree
33 and rain in East Bridgewater.
got about 3″ before the change
any chance it changes back to snow?
Accumulation of snow is done almost raining in the city . Very easy storm .
A good amount in Reading. 4 to 5 inches. Tks forcast on point. Northshore seems to be doing good with this storm in terms of not having the lowest totals.
Another words being in the jackpot. I think we may end up with 6 inches
It’s going to be sunny with mid 40s today .
Final little burst came through dropping about 1/2 inch tops lightning up now I think .
A healthy 4 ” of fairly heavy “snowball snow in W Newton and still lightly snowing.
Huge flakes st Thrifty Park and ride by Logan. Slow ride in from Natick—about 55 minutes. Pike wasn’t good but no cars on the road besides plows. Now just hoping flight takes off on time…
Big fat flakes coming down. Every tree, branch, leaf, needle and wire covered. What beautiful sight.
Nice little storm. 6″ in Holden.
These are some of my favorites. Manageable amount, sun out early and not freezing ass cold behind it.
3 to 7 pretty much everywhere. That’s not a broom-brusher folks. 😉
Will get an official measurement here in a few moments. Updating coming later this morning.
Great forecast TK and WxWatcher.
Very well done TK. Maybe the best forecast of the season. I’m actually home in Wrentham for the weekend (not just ‘cuz I wanted to see the snow 😉 ) and measured 5.2 this morning. Classic “against the pattern” storm. Not a biggie of course given all the limiting factors we’ve pointed out, but as you say, not a broom-brusher!
Well done TK, WxWatcher and SAK
Also, a big thanks to JpDave for the full slate of information that he provides to us for every weather event. His enthusiasm makes accessing the info so easy and helps to make WHW the place to be for weather.
Yes thanks Dave.
6.6 in Woburn
If I’m reading correctly, Logan reports 5.6 inches.
We had some rain late in the event before ending as snow, looks like about 3 waterlogged inches of snow here. Very picturesque with the bright sun.
You are correct on that Tom. Good for Logan! 🙂
5.1” here in Coventry CT. Right within most forecast ranges I saw though near the lower end of the NWS range here. The “warning” level snows actually happened further north in Massachusetts than where the NWS had them but otherwise not a ton of surprises with this.
Props to the CMC and ICON models for sniffing this storm potential out 6 days ago. The GFS was completely clueless on this system right up until yesterday when it had rain to the pike.
Yeah, how useless is the GFS. Too dry/suppressed to begin with, which is an understandable error, but then when it finally catches on to the extent of the precip shield, after all the other guidance, it completely messes up the p-type? The physics of that model have been botched somehow.
Yeah, and it was also the last model to catch on to the idea of the record warmth next week, it had us near the boundary with surface temps holding in the 30s and 40s. Though I suppose you could say that was far enough out that it was within a reasonable range of model error.
I should say “this week”
I’ve got 5”, maybe a touch more. Not a bad snow if you like the stuff. Not sure what the gripe is/was with it.
ICON = new Euro?
Logan monthly snowfall to date = 7.8″
Logan seasonal snowfall to date = 34.8″
So much for that final total that so many people declared with weeks to go in winter. 😉
The public will NEVER learn. I’m convinced of this. I’ll have to issue the same reminder several times every season. And it won’t stick.
The snow surprisingly made it into NNE as well. The system not only overachieved but expanded greatly as well.
7.5 inches in North Reading…a little more than expected!
5” new snow as far north as Killington today. Figures I was there yesterday! The heavier totals definitely made it a bit farther north than I expected. We are now contemplating heading up to Berkshire East this pm to take advantage of this powder before the ski season goes down the tubes this week.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10S/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
Landfall about 10 hrs ago, center a couple hundred miles inland.
Weakening ??? Nah …..
We have seen these things actually intensify over land in that area a few times due to the latent heat feed.
The heaviest burst in Boston ( at least where I was ) came in this morning the remainder of the night was slow but steady. I was expecting a more robust system. Good job to Tk and others especially Mark who was all over this .
So then basically you didn’t believe my forecast. 🙂
Fair enough.
Good morning.
I measured exactly 4.5 inches in JP, One of those rare times we came in under Logan.
Sorry, still not impressed and that is NOT to say the forecasts were off. TK was
Johnnie on the spot with his forecast. (Of course 4.5 falls in nicely in the 3-6 range.) I was expecting a little bit more intensity and frankly, was “hoping” for the high end of the range. It was mostly light snow the whole way, with a couple of moderate bursts.
It was extremely frustrating watching those stronger echos to the South while we
were served minced meat up here. Yes, finally some stronger echos expanded Northward, but too little too late.
All in all, this storm ranks near the bottom of my list.
FWIW, the NWS Winter Storm Warning for this area is LAUGHABLE.
Warranted area to the South or Southwest like parts of Ct, but for Boston????
Gimmie a Break. They should have left it as an advisory.
I got some cool photos this morning. Our snow was unique in that it was low water content but very sticky. That indicates a very cold snow growth area and a mild surface. Also a tell-tale over-achiever signature, which is why some 6+ amounts occurred in my area and northwest for some distance.
I was going to mention the low water content. I have seen this before. Usually we think mild surface = high water content. nope, not always the case as you always keep saying it is the snow growth region that is most important. cool.
The main problem with the term “winter storm warning” is people hear it and think “February 2015”. It’s in their heads that it’s all or nothing. By definition, the warning was actually warranted, and verified in much of the region it was issued (with a few exceptions).
I think we will Always disagree on this. An advisory could have handled it fine.
You are correct. One hears Winter Storm Warning and well, one conjures
up a real Winter storm in one’s mind and not the impostor we had
last night.
To me, we shouldn’t be Watering down the warnings. Save the warnings for the real deal and use advisories otherwise. In the Boston area,
last night’s event was NOT a warning level storm and on that I ain’t budging, sorry. 😀
I think 6 inches is a good cut off for a winter storm watch / warning. If you look at the average snow that falls in a winter event in Boston, it’s under 6. Snowfalls of 6+ in the city are relatively rare.
And Boston came within 0.5″ of that rare 6+ event.
To me it depends on the situation. Some common sense has to be employed. 6 inches of heavy wet snow has far
more of an impact than 8 inches of the dry stuff.
I am a stubborn ole mule and I have seen my share of
Winter storms and am well able to differentiate between
a real Winter Storm and a fake Winter Storm.
If we want to use 6 inches as the cutoff for a Winter Storm warning, then make sure that is achievable.
I don’t want to see a Winter Storm warning with
an expected 3-6 inches. That is LUNACY.
That is clearly just an advisory.
I don’t even want to see a WARNING with 4-8 inches expected.
I ONLY want to see a warning IF the low end of expected
accumulation is 6 inches or more.
See what I am getting at?
Sorry I am such a stickler on this.
But those are my feelings and they won’t be a changing any time soon.
Cheers
😀 😀 😀
Got it! They are valid points as well, but I think the NWS has to take into account the entire population when making decisions and it’s not easy to do.
TK – Is it 4+ or 6+ when a warning is issued? I keep forgetting.
Apparently it is anytime 6 or more is in the range, which makes no sense to me
whatsoever.
For example, last night: Winter Storm Warning. Accumulation 3-6 inches
or 4-6 inches whatever the bleep it was. I saw Jacob at 11 PM. 3-6 inches.
New post!
Winter Storm Warning Criteria from Boston NWS
Winter Storm WarningCollapse
When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 36 hours
More than one predominant hazard
Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard {ie. heavy snow and blowing snow (below blizzard conditions), snow and ice, snow and sleet, sleet and ice, or snow, sleet and ice} meeting or exceeding warning criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements.
Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, or Sleet
6 inches averaged over a forecast zone in a 12 hour period
(except 7 inches in Berkshire and Litchfield Counties).
8 inches averaged over a CT, MA, RI forecast zone in a 24 hour period
(except 9 inches in Berkshire and Litchfield Counties).