Sunday AM Update

122 Comments

10:38AM

This is the last update based on the last full discussion. The next blog post will feature an outlook for the week ahead including an extended look at the longer term trends as we head for the finish line of August.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. More organized lines of showers and storms should approach from the west by evening. Any storms after 3PM may be strong to locally severe. High 82-87. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, with the strongest activity most likely before 2AM. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH. However, strong and gusty winds are possible near any thunderstorms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lingering showers and thunderstorms possible early morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon through early evening. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms late. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 81.

*** NOTE *** Additional posts may appear regarding the severe weather threat, otherwise look for observations and updates in the comments section of this blog post below. Also feel free to post a comment with any questions or observations you have, not just today, but any time!

122 thoughts on “Sunday AM Update”

  1. The latest update from the storm prediction center puts the worst of the severe weather from NYC south with 30% chance for hail and wind and a 5% chance for tornadoes. Here in SNE are values are 15% for hail and wind and 2% chance for tornado. With that said still got to keep an eye to the sky should things change. I would expect to see a severe thunderstorm watch posted somewhere in the slight risk area.

    1. Once again there may be too much southerly component to the wind today for severe weather in the eastern areas, but enough dynamics may be present tonight as the wind goes southwest for some. No surprise with the bigger chance to the south.

      1. TK, my concern is that when thunderstorms occur at night they tend to be more severe than expected. I don’t know why, but it almost always seem that way. I have been violently awoken too many times from a deep sleep hours after a tv met at 11:00 pm says things like “maybe a very brief shower/storm”.

        1. The part I dont like about overnight storms is the darkness making the lightning seem so vivid.

          With the high clouds clearing out, the sun is out fairly strong. In response, the temp has jumped into the low 80s and the cumulus clouds are popping quickly. It has been a very humid last few days south of Boston and now today, it is oppressively humid.

          1. The part I dont like about overnight is that you can’t see if a funnel cloud is firming. I know we don’t have a huge risk in the northeast but the line that came thru Framingham June 1 was at night and I was uncharacteristically uncomfortable not being able to see

  2. That sun is what I like to call self destructing sunshine as it will help destabilize the atmosphere so this is a day to root for cloud cover. It looks like a broken area of showers to the west of New England and another area starting to form in the western parts of NY and PA.

  3. It seems the models have come to a bit of an agreement, as well as some consistency of where this storm will go. I say storm because that’s what it’ll be when it reaches us, and is currently supposed to drop 3-5+” of rainfall if these runs end up verifying.
    I am currently awaiting the 12z GFS.

  4. Henry Margusity’s map this morning shows Irene track mostly through the interior after it makes landfall along the SC coast. This probably will end up like Hannah in 2008 (as Henry suggested from the beginning) bringing SNE a very few inches of rain with relatively little fanfare to the point that a few years from now, like Hannah, Irene will long be forgotten until a met reminds us.

    However, should the track become further east…then we need to really WATCH OUT.

    1. When I think of the SC coast and hurricanes, Hugo pops into my head. I think it took an inland path, where its remains eventually went over Cleveland and into southern Ontario and curved around New England.

      1. My inlaws were living in mt pleasant SC in 1989. Just west of isle of palm which sustained heavy damage. Hugo was still a monster when it reached Charlotte NC where my mother in laws sister lived. It spawned tons of tornadoes there. Well maybe not tons. When we used to drive to SC we could see hugos path of destruction well inland. It was incredibly powerful

  5. Just read the latest mesoscale discussions and it looks like a watch is likely across western parts of SNE. Will see if one issued.

  7. As Tom said the clouds are popping up. There is a steady breeze keeping the flags horizontal to the ground from the SW-S. Keeps the humidity bearable

    3. Tropicals almost always end up ahead of guidance timeframes, so let’s lean toward late 28th to early 29th as the mid point of the target zone.

      1. We were at Humarock years ago for a TS. It may have been Felix. It was the type of storm that didn’t cause massive damage but was awesome to watch at the coast.

        2. Felix…now that rings a bell. After thinking about it, we in SNE have had quite a few tropical “systems” come through here over the years since Bob in 1991, but we have been most fortunate none have been particularly memorable in either wind or rain. A bit of a shame that Bob didn’t get much mention from the tv mets last Friday considering a “20th” anniversary.

          I also remember watching those “Felix The Cat” cartoons as a kid. 🙂

          1. Hi Philip- ch5 made mention of it a few times. They even had a piece on it on there website. The weather team over there is awesome.

    1. Although that run spares most of Florida, but the Carolina’s get a serious flooding situation from that run.

  11. As I mentioned earlier, a track a bit further east would bring much stronger winds in addition to heavy rains to most of SNE. Is this still possible or is Irene’s current track the most farthest “east” it is likely to pass?

    I am certainly not hoping for the above scenario…just curious more than anything else.

  13. Philip, did you end up getting a downpour from the cell that went through the Boston area ?

    I am just looking at the radar and thinking that Northwestern Connecticut, western and central Mass, eastern Vermont and New Hampshire are in for a rocky next couple of hours.

    1. No Tom, I got absolutely nothing even though it got dark for a time. It has been partly sunny for the past half hour or so. I have a bad feeling that it’s going to be quite the stormy evening even here in eastern sections.

  14. Tom that storm to the west of CT not only has a severe thunderstorm warning but also a flash flood warning.

  15. There’s currently a tornado warning for one of those cells that’s headed into northwest Connecticut, should keep and eye on that and any other tornadic looking cells.

  17. We have had a lot of sun around in Sudbury starting around 11:00 a.m. or so – I am pretty sure the atmosphere is destabilized. At this point, a Severe Thundertorm Watch has been posted just to the west of here. Wouldn’t be surprised if it extends all the way to Boston soon. Also, if tornado warnings keep popping up, wouldn’t be surprised if a Tornado Watch goes up – prob’ly to the southwest of here. Winds seem to be south-southwesterly. Some puffy clouds to the southeast and northwest.

  18. This looks like it could be round 1 of thunderstorms for parts of SNE. I am noticing another line in western parts of NY starting to form so will see what happens with that line.

    1. I think you are right on JJ. The visible satellite shows clearing behind this first line and I think the best dynamics are out in western NY State. Wouldnt be surprised if a second line ends up being more intense than this first one.

  19. If the sun comes back out once this line passes that could very well recharge the atmosphere so I don’t think were out of the woods just yet.
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for a good part of SNE until 9:00pm.

    1. Thanks Jimmy….keep us posted as always. I am not surprised given the radar all along the CT River Valley area.

    1. John the wind is crazy here. I tend to love wind so am enjoying sitting on the deck watching. Oddly all of the kormorants (sp?) and sea gulls have moved from the shore and docks to the water.

      1. I think It is cool that you are here in the neighborhood, there is three of us seeing for the most part the same thing. Tommorow may not be a beach day here but Tuesday and Wednrsday look good.

        1. I think it’s pretty cool too. And even at home Rainshine and I are only a few miles apart. I really love being on this blog while here with everyone. I love weather everywhere but there’s just something special about being at the coast

  23. I hope I didn’t seem too “excited” about any Tornado Watch – I certainly don’t want one! At this time it looks like some severe storms heading this way but there looks like we will be getting a lot of rain. And to TK, JimmyJames and others – you are all correct -looks like most of the real severe weather will stay south – for the time being. Finally has clouded over here in Sudbury. The squall line does look impressive and if that second one holds out we will be having a stormy day and night.

    1. I think most spots will pick up between a .25″-1″, with that 1″ being very isolated. We’ll see what this line looks like as it gets closer.

  24. 12z EURO shows a direct hit to Charleston SC at a borderline cat 4 hurricane at 946mb, then comes right up to us with potentially tropical storm conditions. This really needs to be watched.

    1. The first part of that post was copied and pasted from someone Else’s words, but the 12z EURO from what I can see has a 973 Mb low over Charleston SC.

    2. My inlaws are sadly no longer with us but we spent much time in charleston when they retired there. It’s at sea level and I feel very close to the area. I’ll hope it isn’t a direct hit. Not that a direct hit of a 4 anywhere will be any better. It’s seems so much worse to be in the south for a hurricane

      How reliable is data this far out?

      1. Odds are fairly high for The Charleston area to get hit pretty bad since both the GFS model and the EURO model are agreeing with the track at this point.
        This event is several days out, so there’s a bit of uncertainty still.

  25. Not too many warnings right now with that second squall line but as noted earlier there is clear skies ahead of it so will see what happens.

  26. Not including the advance isolated storms and small clusters that went through southeastern MA to Boston and scraped the southern coast of Cape Ann earlier, but the first organized line is already feeling a more stable southerly wind in eastern New England. I don’t think this line is going to do all that much to the eastern areas.

    Wait for the good dynamics to arrive later and see if something responds tonight.

  27. Line #1 update: Strongest cells are going through the Lakes Region in NH and the “tail end Charlie” cell going through Hartford CT. Everything in between is pretty lame as far as storms go.

  29. The radar out of Puerto Rico, accessible on the NHC Website, will also be fun to watch the next several hours. I think the center of the tropical storm is just coming into the right side of the radar beam. When I look at the radar and the satellite loop, I think the center is going over Puerto Rico or is going to skim its north coast. So, the Carolinas idea from the GFS and Euro seem plausible to me given what I think is an ever so slight northward motion to Irene. It doesnt seem to be moving due west, but slightly north of west.

      1. Sure seems like it, very impressive looking at this point. It’ll be interesting to see what the other islands do to Irene.

  31. A new tornado warning has been issued for a cell that’s about to move into to south west Connecticut.

  32. Assuming I am looking at the radar correctly, there are areas of storms in PA and NJ moving east-northeastward…is that going to get the Boston area later?

  34. 2 tornado warnings issued earlier for activity that passed through Syracuse NY area. That is part of the final line that will move thorugh this area tonight, in whatever form it happens to be in. We still have other threats before that from cells that are firing up over NY/CT.

  35. Does anyone have an iPhone weather app they recommend?
    It’s still windy here but about half the speed of earlier

  37. Today’s 6-10 day CPC outlook is for well above normal rainfall from Florida to Maine…no real surprise considering what is to come (Irene).

  38. Does anybody know if Myrtle beach will be affected by this storm. My good buddy should be getting there today, he is there till Saturday.

    1. I would think it’s close to charleston by hurricane standards. I know during Hugo the officials in charleston did a great job with evacuating and closing inbound roads much earlier than they did in LA for Katrina.

      1. There was a point to my comment but I forgot to state it :). Your friend could get hung up in evacuation.

        1. For now, I would suggest your friend leave in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. I would say Saturday might be too late dependent on forward speed of Irene.

        2. Thats not good. If you guys could keep an eye on this for me that would be great, I do not know how to read the weather charts yet. I will shoot him an email. If this is to come his way what day would It be? Although If this indeed comes his way he would know It, but I would like to give him a heads up. If anybody knows what days he shood look out for please let me know. When I hear back I will shoot an email to his black berry. Thank’s.

    1. Those “pretty colors” look to be right over eastern N.E. about 5-10″ worth of rain. Hope that doesn’t verify.

  40. Charlotte-Amalie, which is a reporting station in the islands just east of Puerto Rico, had the most recent observation…… Heavy Rain, East wind sustained at 32, gusting to 64 with a dewpoint of 77F !!

    1. Tom- what is the target day that he should be thinking about. He drove down yesterday and should arrive there today. He spent the night in Virgina, he is to leave there for Pembroke Saturday morning or night.

          1. If he’s driving would he get caught driving up the coast? Another reason I’d think he’d want to leave early. Does he do the drive in one day or two. This is mother Vicki worrying :). Sorry 🙁

    1. According to NWS, public reported seeing a funnel near Pittsfield area (I think it’s Pittsfield) – but I guess there is such heavy rain it could be rain-wrapped. Could a funnel still be seen in heavy rain? I should know that, prob’ly so.

      Also, on the topic of Irene – how do they know that she will stay on the East Coast rather than cross FL and go to the Gulf Coast?

      1. That’s what the weather models are showing.
        Weather systems travel where there is least resistance, In this case, the least resistance is along the eastern seaboard.

    2. Thanks Rainshine. I called daughter in Uxbridge so she could keep eyes open. I am not getting the warnings for that area on my phone so appreciate your posting it

      1. Vicki- They left first thing yesterday and were stopping I think in Virginia and were to get at Myrtle beach today. I was with him on Friday night and he was considering leaving on Saturday and making no stops. I guess this would be up to how the kids are. He has been going back and forth on driving or flying. In his words he was to cheap to fly, so drive It was. He said he hit a ton of traffic on the way down yesterday.

        1. We used to drive down to the end of the jersey turnpike then drop over to 301 along the Chesapeake Bay and come outcon Richmond. It avoided Baltimore and Washington. It would be too close to the coast with a TS in the area. We also liked going thru Charlotte and up 84 (I think) thru harrisburg and NY which would get him inland. We drove straight home with the kids twice. It’s a long trip with kids in one day 🙂

  42. Vicki – the Tornado Warning has become a Flood Warning – not surprised with all the rain. I think Uxbridge is south of that area – nonetheless, it looks like it is going to be a stormy night most everywhere – right into the early morning.

  43. Last check no warnings here in New England for thunderstorms or tornadoes. The activity that is moving up from the southwest has more rain than severe weather with it. Once we get past tonight the things to track this week are Irene and the potential for more showers and thunderstorms with the passage of a cold front on Thursday. This will not be a boring week of weather.

    1. I was channel surfing and I thought I saw some kind of Middlesex/Essex county warning. Not sure what I saw.

    2. Jimmy, Barry mentioned on his 6:30 newscast that there could be a weak area of low pressure riding along the cold front and bring one final burst of storms to E and SE MA very early Monday morning ( 3-5 am?).

      Do you think that could happen?

  44. Philip I think as the night progresses the severe threat is going to turn into a heavy rain threat. Just checked the latest warnings and the in the Greenfield area a severe thunderstorm warning is up and there is some rotation being picked up in that storm.

    1. Thanks Jimmy…I hope you’re right on that. I don’t want to be awoken by thunder yet again. 🙂

  45. I believe we may not be far from showtime here in Pembroke. Sounds of thunder and the wind is howling. I came out on my front porch to wait for it.

  46. John…I hope your friend keeps tuned to all forecasts and heed to any future watches or warnings for the SC area. I would say that Irene is not going to be something to take even remotely lightly. If Irene tracks further east than expected we might have a lot to deal with around here as well.

    1. Yea I agree. I shot him an email about an hour ago that goes to his phone, weird I have not heard back from him. I would guess his phone still works there.

      1. Hi John,

        If it were me, I would not have a day picked yet to leave. I’d check in to the local area forecasts each day and once they start to see watches or warnings hoisted, then thats time to decide on a plan and act. However, sometimes heavy rains can precede well in advance of actual landfall and for a driver, could make for miserable, intense driving conditions. So, they might be wise to watch the radar as well.

        1. I shot him an email Tom to give him a heads up, I have not heard back from him which is weird. Like I said they were getting there today and planning on leaving Saturday. I hate to bother him on vacation but just getting there today he may not have heard about it yet. I want to give him that heads up. I’ll let you know when I hear back from him and he can let us know what they are saying.

  47. With tropical storms or hurricanes…the heaviest rains are to the LEFT of the track and the strongest winds are to the RIGHT of the track.

  48. If Irene stays more in the water than on land when it gets close to Hati and Cuba this could end up being a stronger storm than what the hurricane center is calling for. Any travels plans from the Carolina’s to Miami and the Keys need to watch this situation carefully.

  49. Fwiw, late today Henry Margusity moved the track slightly further east. I am beginning to get a bad feeling that Irene could be a VERY major player from the Carolinas to Maine…to say the least. We will see what happens as the week progresses.

    1. Philip- I sent my friend 2 emails and just called him. It is not like him to not respond back. I am thinking somthing must be up with his phone. I guess he will be finding out about it soon one way or the other.

  51. Not that it matters, but I absolutely hate it when Henry uses that term: “big daddy”. It’s so overused the sound of it makes my teeth hurt. It’s about on par with The Weather Channel’s use of “Winter Blitz”…the stupidest weather term ever invented.

        1. If we get that center away from the D.R. and out east of the Bahamas it’s going to rapidly intensify and be in prime position to be pulled right up the East Coast. I consider that chance only about 1 in 6 at this point.

  53. If Henry does have a “big daddy” hat for hurricanes, then my bet is he puts in on first thing tomorrow morning. He has been bullish about Irene since July 4th weekend…at least it seems it’s been that long ago, lol. 🙂

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