The Week Ahead

49 Comments

11:13PM

The “South Wind Storm Killer” has been at work tonight, keeping organized storms from reaching the coastal plain in eastern MA, RI, and the Seacoast region of NH. Often, a straight southerly wind will keep the atmosphere too stable to support strong storms, and only isolated heavy downpours pop up in the tropical air that is over us. A subtle shift in conditions over the next few hours may allow a line of storms currently entering east central NY State (as of 10:30PM) to make it most of if not all of the way across MA by 3:00AM.  Winds should shift to the southwest ahead of this line, and the sooner that happens the better the chance is that these storms survive the trip. If the winds remain more southerly, then this line will also weaken as it moves into the stabilized air in place. So don’t be totally surprised if you hear at least heavy rain falling and possibly some booming thunder sometime between 2:00AM & 4:00AM, earliest to the west, lastly in areas southeast of Boston. All of this activity should be pushing eastward offshore by dawn.

Looking ahead into the new week, we still have a little bit of an upper level trough to cross the region on Monday, and perhaps also one weak wave of low pressure rippling along the front that will have just passed by, so we cannot completely rule out a shower or thunderstorm through Monday evening, though widespread activity is not expected.

High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday with 2 splendid late summer days being the result.

By Thursday, we’ll be back into return flow on the back side of high pressure, and will see an increase in temperature and humidity, and also the chance of showers and thunderstorms, most likely later in the day or at night, as a cold front moves into the region. This front should push offshore Friday with a return to fair weather, which should last through Saturday as well. Things become tricky by Sunday as that could be when we’d be hearing from Irene, currently a tropical storm and expected to become a hurricane. I could outline multiple scenarios, based on computer model forecasts, but at this point I will just say that the storm will likely impact somewhere along the Southeast US Coast as a hurricane late in the week, and it should arrive in the Northeast via south to north steering currents by late in the weekend. What form Irene will be in when it gets here? It is simply too early to tell, and this will be something to follow during the week.

A peek a little further ahead into the last few days of August: Looks great behind Irene for the last couple days of the month, and there are even some early signs of a bout of late summer heat as we head toward the Labor Day Weekend. More in the days to come…

For now, the latest Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy, mild, and muggy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through 2AM, then a chance of a broken to solid line of showers and storms moving west to east across the region between 2AM & 4AM. A follow up shower or storm may visit areas especially along and east of Route 95 toward dawn. Low 64-69. Wind S 10-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW, then W toward dawn.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a lingering shower possible in the morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the afternoon then variably cloudy late in the day with a risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. High 80-85. Starting humid then slowly drying. Wind W 10-15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Cooler and drier. Low 60-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and comfortable. High 75-80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain/wind arriving (Irene)? Low 66. High 77.

49 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. TK, Barry’s 11:15 pm comments were similar to yours re: Irene. He did say ( or I guess hinted) that Irene could even be a TS by the time it got here. He was also quick to say it’s to early to tell much.

    1. Hi Longshot.

      Yes, a bit east again……..The Bermuda High has been weak or absent all summer and I wonder if the models are starting to project a weaker Atlantic ridge allowing for a more easterly path.

      Looking forward to a couple of cool nights where we can turn the A/C off and let the fresh, cool, dry air in.

  4. I wasn’t surprised to hear rain in the night but was pleasantly surprised to wake up to the sunrise

    Am
    I reading the track map incorrectly? It looks to me as if highest probability is now closer to SC/GA border.

    My sister in law lived in Atlanta. Out of curiosity does anyone know if a hurricane has ever been strong enough to reach that far inland?

      1. Hi Vicki.

        Has she ever toured the Weather Channel. (I think its in Atlanta). Of course, I wonder if they allow public visitation….

        I dont know if a hurricane has ever been strong enough to reach Atlanta…….I’d think while they can get some wind, enough to cause some issues, their bigger concerns might be fresh water flooding and tornadic activity. I dont know why exactly, but when tropical systems move inland, there’s an increased tornado threat usually to the right (east) of the track.

        1. Good morning Tom. I’m not sure if she has but she loves to do that sort of thing so I will ask. I’d love a tour too

  8. Irene is going to have a big impact on a lot of people on the eastern seaboard and what I notice this morning is from the latest track and intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center it keeps Irene a hurricane. The majority of the models have it going for the Carolinas. I still think folks in Florida should not let their guard down as this track will change. A brand new track will be out at 11AM. The big question is what form will Irene be in once it gets up here. Early stab for up here is we get the remenant rains up here and not a hurricane or tropical storm.

  9. Most of the guidance bring it as a low pressure system through central NE with soaking rains for us at this point.

    JJ yes I think everyone needs to keep an eye on it, but I do think the Carolina’s are under the gun on this one.

  10. I think Irene will be New England’s first land falling hurricane in years. A week Cat 1 when it makes landfall at the CT/RI Border, from there it will travel just northwest of Boston. Coastal tide and wind damage to be expected south, gusty winds and torrential rains everywhere. 🙂

  11. The other thing to remember with a landfalling system in additon to what you mentioned Coastal is to the right of the center YOU COULD get tornadoes to spin up. These are usually EF 0 EF 1 tornadoes. I believe Ivan has the record for most tornadoes with a landfalling tropical system.

  15. This is now forecasted to become a major hurricane which is category 3.
    I will be interested in what the 12z runs have to say for impacts to us here in SNE.

  16. This morning Henry Margusity hasn’t yet ruled out a landfall for the NC coast. I have a feeling even SNE may have hurricane force winds albeit probably minimal.

    My bet is several inches of rain likely for us!

  17. I know that it looks like Irene is going to be east of FL – but my friend’s family lives in the Orlando area. Will they get affected by any of this?

    1. rainshine, I would say at this point Orlando is at least in the very heavy rain and high wind zone (I think the strongest winds are on the east side of the strm though). Your friend’s family should stay tuned to forecasts.

  18. At this point and this could change they won’t get the full brunt of Irene but that part of Florida could still get rainfall and some gusty winds. Carolina’s look to be the bullseye right now as the models are keeping it east of Florida and taking it to the Carolina’s. Plenty of warm water for this system to continue to grow and strengthen.

    1. Will it have momentum to continue inland or is it more likely to hi the carolinas and move up the coast? Or is that the big question?

      Wind is crazy here today. Out of the N NW and blowing chairs over on deck. It’s strong enuf that tha straw in my water cup is whistling

      1. Vicki – I wish I had the knowledge to answer your question. I really don’t know – but I can take a guess. I think it depends on the weather inland – in other words, are there any fronts around to keep it from moving inland. And also maybe it depends on the winds in the upper atmosphere. I have no idea if that makes any sense, just thought I would try anyway! 🙂

        It’s windy here in Sudbury, too – big change in temp. and humidity from yesterday.

    2. JimmyJames – sorry about that. I was reading so fast and the question was directed to you. Thanks for your answer re: my friend’s family in Orlando. Again, I apologize for that.

      1. Rainshine thanks for the explanation and the question was really for anyone and I’m glad you answered. Is it too soon to see what Steering currents will be in play?

  21. 12 Z GFS just crushes the carolina’s and it looks like it just hugs the coast even though the later frames are not there yet.

  23. How reliable is the gfs models re: Irene? Correct me if I am wrong – but during the winter, it seems the GFS wasn’t predicting as well as the EURO models. Or is it all different for each season?

      1. Thanks, Hadi – that’s what I thought. After being on this blog for some time, I have figured out that most of the time the EURO is pretty reliable.

  26. I also would caution anyone for going crazy over this, way too early to really get too confidant of anything at this point.

  27. Good point Hadi and the thing to remember its Monday and this is going to change several times before then. The best advice stay tuned to future forecasts as a new track will come out a 5pm today and anyone linving Carolina’s to Florida I hope has started to make preperations.

  28. Sorry for not chiming in….

    My computer is kaput at home so was out of commission for weekend and I was
    teid up today.

    ALL I can say is that we REALLY need to watch this. Even Barry burbank last night
    indicated that it was “Likely” to hit us, but it was still 8 days out.

    Have a good one.

  30. Thanks everyone for posting your thoughts, links, etc.! The blog has been updated. You may shift over to the new post and comment away. 🙂

  31. I’m having a hard time seeing the charts on my phone screen but the last one looked like a direct hit in MA???? I think I’ll be hoping it shifts wayyyyy east and singing the song I remember my dad sang when I was a kid – “goodnight Irene”. I’m not in a hurry to go home halfway through vacation but even more that lady looks mean and I’d hate to see here hit anywhere full force

  32. Hi All-My summer schedule has kept me from posting much, hope to return in September as a more productive poster. I won’t be able to post many detailed thoughts on Irene, but I will give you couple cents worth right now.

    Storm continues to trend further east (48 hours ago it was a florida hit)and I don’t think we are done with that trend. Falmouth, but maybe even further east towards the elbow or off shore? Either way the right front quadrant and its highest winds and strongest storm surge should be east of most of SNE except maybe Nantucket? On the left side expect the heaviest rains so that could be its biggest impact for the areas where most people live. Except for may some pre-rains late Saturday this a Sunday event, however as usual models hang on to precip far too long after passage.

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