Tuesday Forecast

132 Comments

2:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Into the wedge of warmth we go for 2 days before a cold front slices through the region and puts an end to the spring preview late Wednesday. Cloudiness will prevent most areas from reaching maximum potential temperatures today, though the warmest will occur north and west of Boston, primarily north of I-90 and west of I-95, centered in the Merrimack Valley and southern NH. Temperatures come up a few notches Wednesday just ahead of the cold front, with again cloudiness and ocean-modified air keeping the South Coast and adjacent areas cooler while the warmest air is over the same areas it was today. A few showers may accompany the cold front Wednesday evening, and this front will then come to a halt just south of New England Thursday, allowing a small ripple of low pressure to move along it. Cold air will be draining in all the while and a period of precipitation, possibly in the form of snow/sleet north and rain south, is expected Thursday. This boundary is going to sit to the south with southern New England on the cooler side of it right into the coming weekend too and another round of precipitation, mainly rain that may start as some snow/ice interior, is expected Friday night and early Saturday and another area of most likely rain/mix approaching later Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 47-55 South Coast, 56-64 elsewhere, mildest north central to interior northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy north. Mostly cloudy south. Lows 45-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny north. Mostly cloudy south. Highs 47-56 South Coast, 57-70 elsewhere, warmest valley areas northwest of Boston. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 35-42. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain southern MA, RI, CT. Chance of mix/snow central MA to southern NH. Temperatures steady 35-42 morning, falling to 30-35 afternoon. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Chance of rain which may start as snow/ice at night. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Chance of rain/mix/snow night. Temperatures stead upper 30s to lower 40s then falling slightly.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
A broad low pressure area brings a chance of rain/ice/snow February 25. Will watch the period February 26-28 for an additional disturbance moving through from northwest to east that may produce additional rain/mix/snow. Dry weather follows. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
Expecting a blocking pattern with high pressure across eastern Canada and low pressure between the Mid Atlantic and western Atlantic. This pattern will feature generally near to below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, however the main storminess may be to the south and southeast of New England in this set-up.

132 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yawn…Ho Hum.
    I will say this: It is awfully mild out there. 52 when I left the house. Nice launching point and even IF it doesn’t break 60, pretty damn mild for this time of year. No complaints.

    3. I don’t think anyone can answer that with any degree of confidence.
      Even if one believes that they will not make it, does not mean they won’t.

      If I had to guess, I would say no, however, anything can happen around
      these parts. For example, “what if” Boston sneaks in 2-3 inches Late Thursday.
      That would be a bonus and that much closer to the average. If they do not
      on Thursday, and it is likely boston does not, then there is another chance
      by the boards.

      And remember, Boston (logan) has had measurable snow MANY times in
      April and even rarely in May, so if it doesn’t happen by the 1st day of Spring,
      all is not lost.

      One thing I can say: Boston will either make it or it won’t. ๐Ÿ˜€

  7. I don’t think anyone can answer that with any degree of confidence.
    Even if one believes that they will not make it, does not mean they won’t.

    If I had to guess, I would say no, however, anything can happen around
    these parts. For example, “what if” Boston sneaks in 2-3 inches Late Thursday.
    That would be a bonus and that much closer to the average. If they do not
    on Thursday, and it is likely boston does not, then there is another chance
    by the boards.

    And remember, Boston (logan) has had measurable snow MANY times in
    April and even rarely in May, so if it doesn’t happen by the 1st day of Spring,
    all is not lost.

    One thing I can say: Boston will either make it or it won’t. ๐Ÿ˜€

  8. Gulf of Mexico water temps five to eight degrees above normal,does that mean a big time tornado season in tornado alley?Are we on the way to a hot steamy summer? Any thoughts?

    1. When the ocean current setup pools warmer than average water in there, as it is doing currently, this will probably add a little fuel to both fires, but more noticeable of the will be the severe weather season, which I already think may make up for some of the recent severe weather “drought” years.

      As nasty as the 1950s were for tornadoes, the 2010s have been exceedingly quiet.

  9. Expanding on my comment above…

    Does Boston have measurable snow left to get? Probably. Climatology says yes. The pattern right now says not too easily but it doesn’t say no either. Ideal set-up Thursday, they could get a few tenths. Maximum cold potential at onset of precipitation Friday night, they could do it again. Sunday is too far away to know details but in theory, they could measure yet again (though odds are against anything significant the way that looks to me). But do I even have to bring up past history (a.k.a. climatology) to tell you what can happen? We’re going to evolve into a pattern that places chilly air over the region and storminess at least close by several times. I didn’t pick 5-10 out randomly. Just an educated guess tells me this is a reasonable guess as to what they can do. Could it be under 5? Yes. Could it be greater than 10? Certainly. Could it be greater than 15? 20? I guess we’ll find out, won’t we? ๐Ÿ™‚

  10. I think Logan will reach its seasonal snow average.

    The first half of March should be fun. Not a pattern we’ve seen much lately. Brings with it some interesting questions and potentials.

  11. My guess is Logan nickles and dime its way to about average. Not hard to get to that in March I wouldn’t think. I’m still not so sure how the suppression idea pans out though.

    Depends on how long the pattern stays conducive to it as well. If we only have to about March 20th or so, it might be close. Once things flip, it could be over except for a few wet inches in early April.
    One things for certain, we are about to enter the 2 nastiest months on the calendar in NE, IMO. Early spring in coastal NE has got to be one of the worst areas in the CONUS for spring weather enthusiast. Unless you are a masochist and like icy east winds with highs in the 40’s, backdoor cold fronts, and misery mist/sheet drizzle from late March to mid/late April. Personally, I could do without it.

    1. I am not a self-proclaimed masochist, but I have no problem with 40s, east wind, and sheet drizzle. I like the marine feel. It kind of brings out the history of seacoast New England and makes you feel it and smell it. ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. Liars is what that is, lol
          I call bullshit on that. Ainโ€™t a soul likes 40 degrees and sheet drizzle in the spring.
          Salt air is one thing, but misery mist is another. One reason I live in Worcester county. I had my fill of that crap back in the 90โ€™s when I lived in Boston.

    2. That’s kind of my initial thought with this… Under 1 inch in the city, maybe just flakes in the air with no real accumulation as we’ll be coming off 2 very mild days with warmer ground.

        1. Probably not, although if we did manage to accumulate a half inch or an inch, and partially melt it, that may lead to a fair amount of ground ice Thursday night / Friday morning because it will clear out and the temp will drop.

  15. Temps today overperforming; tomorrow: widespread 70s along and north of the Pike. Weโ€™re to the time of year when temperatures consistently exceed the forecast. Bowen ratio.

  16. Even out on the Outer Cape, in Orleans/Eastham area, all the low clouds just lifted to give bright sunshine. Nice surprise !!

  18. The temperature forecast I made for today were in relation to the sky condition I expected. Clearly a lot of the region is sunnier than I indicated. Logic says the temperature will respond accordingly and end up higher than forecast.

    This may or may not happen tomorrow. Cloud-cover is still a wild card for tomorrow too.

  19. Great examples of news over-hype…

    “Summerlike weather”. No, it’s springlike weather.

    “Record breaking heat”. No, it’s record breaking warmth or record breaking high temperatures.

    Yes, it makes a difference when you word it incorrectly.

  20. One of the local TV mets was having a really, really hard time trying to word things in an understandable manner. That was painful to watch, but is unfortunately an ongoing issue.

      1. You can guess. I won’t call them out. I like this person. They just struggle on-air for some reason. :/

            1. I know who you mean and I know you know that this person is NOT my favorite met. IN fact, this person is on my all time worst list. In fact TOP of the list.

  21. Temperature overachieving today love it . Still donโ€™t think we have any snow issues Thursday night in my opinion. Would be great if tomorrow is warmer as well .

    1. I don’t think anyone’s looking for a significant event Thursday, but it gets cold enough. All we need is some moisture and it’s at least going to result in flakes in the air in some locations and maybe some minor accumulation in some locations. Some locations. Not all locations.

  23. TK – Could the Mid-Atlantic have record snowfall coming in March? Just wondering regarding my relatives down there.

    1. That’s very hard to call in advance. And record snowfall is usually something that occurs in a relatively small area or region. All I can say right now is that the expected upcoming pattern will support opportunities for some late-season snow events down there. The details will reveal themselves as the pattern evolves.

  24. Ryan Hanrahan (definitely one of my favorite local TV mets) posted a graph on Twitter last night that I found just incredible. Basically it was a climatology of observed (via radiosonde) 500mb heights at Long Island. The heights at that level we’ll be seeing tomorrow will not only exceed anything ever observed in February… they’ll exceed anything we’ve observed before mid-April. And are more typical of July-August. Frankly, I think summer-like is the perfect way to describe this pattern. Literally the only thing limiting us is the Sun angle, which is simply not high enough yet to get us into the 80s-90s that we would be seeing with this in deep summer. But it is astonishing.

    2. The magnitude of the ridge may be summerlike, but the result at the surface is not. ๐Ÿ™‚ Also the lower heights in the trough position are more fitting for this time of year. It’s really more the ridge anomaly resulting from this particular set of indices in the phases and magnitudes they are in at the moment. We often see this right before large scale pattern changes. Almost like the pattern “blows itself up”. ๐Ÿ˜‰

      1. Definitely a unique upper air pattern for this time of year. I guess 500mb height records arenโ€™t quite as easy to report on TV as a surface high temperature record ๐Ÿ™‚

  25. Logan 2 PM, 68 !!!

    What’s the record? is it 68 or is it 69 ???

    Looks like we are very close to record territory for today.

      1. Yup, understood. I noticed that early on and suspected
        we may approach the record. Plus we had a nice launching
        point this morning,

    1. Are you there? I know you would be loving it. In February, honestly, I could
      care less. Later in March and April, I’d be up in arms. ๐Ÿ˜€

  28. Two watch periods for snow threats that I see in the 12z models:

    -Next Tuesday/Wed 2-27 and 2-28 the ICON and CMC show a system approaching from the west with coastal redevelopment to our south. GFS and Euro don’t have it though. Sound familiar?

    -Late next week (~3/1) both the Euro and GFS have another system approaching from the west and running into the block. GFS has it cutting to the south of us and Euro at 240 hours looks to be doing the same. System on the Euro is pretty loaded.

    Still a ways off but nice to see the chances that this pattern supports starting to show up in the long range guidance.

    1. Euro looks most interesting at end of period. That is quite a block depicted.
      Not sure where it will end up as I am not experienced enough in this, but
      my gut says it “could” get shunted just to our South, although it could end
      up a big hit. This one will be fun to monitor.

  30. It is 71 degrees in Sudbury. There are still areas of snow around. I never believed it would even get near 60 degrees out.

    Haven’t seen Vicki lately – does anyone know how she is?

  32. Logan 69 at 3PM. I wonder IF it touched 70 between obs????

    In any case it Broke today’s record high. ๐Ÿ˜€

    1. It may have. We often see that. ๐Ÿ™‚

      I’d say that the abundant sun added 5 to 8 degrees to what it would have been. Didn’t hurt that the wind was straight SW at the airport, any shift to the S and it would have tumbled.

    1. Just about right for New England … somewhere between 1 and 12 inches and then again it might become a beach day. ๐Ÿ™‚

    2. Well that’s just plain cruel of the GEM seeing as I have a flight to Florida on the 28th. ๐Ÿ™ #teamGFS

    4. Aren’t both of those potential models the accumulated snowfall throughout the entire week plus time period vs 24hrs accumulated? If so, that’s less of a surprise in regards to the numbers in my mind.

  35. Logan 70 at 4PM

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.3606N 71.0106W
    2 Day History

    Mostly Cloudy
    70.0 ยฐF
    Last Updated: Feb 20 2018, 3:54 pm EST
    Tue, 20 Feb 2018 15:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy
    Temperature: 70.0 ยฐF (21.1 ยฐC)
    Dewpoint: 54.0 ยฐF (12.2 ยฐC)
    Relative Humidity: 57 %
    Wind: Southwest at 11.5 MPH (10 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1022.1 mb

    1. Well, the 1936 record has gone down. Now let’s see if the older one can fall tomorrow. I think it does.

      1. Yup and Yup. Interesting weather these days even though I
        posted “Yawn” this morning. ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜€

  36. Even though we don’t have precipitation type from the public access we have
    with the UKMET, it does show precipitation with 850 MB temps below freezing.
    What that translates to the surface is difficult to know, but i’d say there is at least
    a chance that the UKMET is on board with some snow for Late Thursday. ๐Ÿ˜€

  37. Boston Logan just experienced a very impressive temperature drop due to a sea breeze. Looks like close to 20 degrees in 20 minutes.

  38. Helped my 91 yo mom cut some forsythia to โ€œforceโ€ over the next week or so. She loves tdoing that. Iโ€™ll have to keep myself from putting down crab grass preventer…that is what I love forsythia blooming for!

  39. Eric has a widespread coating to 2″ for Thursday. I have noticed lately that he just plops a range all over SNE while most of the other tv mets usually narrow it down to specific areas. Not being critical in the least, he is a good met. Just an observation more than anything else.

    2. Eric is one of the most comprehensive broadcasters when it comes to presenting organized information. His forecasting style can be a bit aggressive compared to mine but I think he is one of the best out there. His ability to communicate information and have the public understand it is top notch.

      I happen to agree with the widespread coating to 2 inches with the potential event 2 days away and with a short window of opportunity for it to occur, coming off a very warm spell. I’m not sure how much more you can break down a coating to 2 inches, given that this is often a range used in final forecasts for larger storms.

      You’re asking him to break down precipitation to the nearest 0.1 inch, when he’s basically expecting only a trace to 0.2 inch anyway. I challenge anybody to come up with a valid reason why this is not a good enough forecast.

        1. I don’t visit the blog too often but I do read all of Barry’s. They haven’t updated that blog as frequently as they did in the days before WHW existed.

          1. I donโ€™t go there at all . I sometimes will read the one that Bri puts out as I follow her . I really liked the daily blog the Pete put out back on 7.

            1. My current top 5 TV folks in Boston…

              Barry Burbank
              Eric Fisher
              Harvey Leonard
              Pete Bouchard
              Jacob Wycoff

              1. WHW is the only blog I go to. I used to occasionally go to AccuWeather.com blog and check their mets posts but no more. I only go there for their local radars.

  40. All-time February highs here in Taunton:
    71 in 2017 (February 25)
    70 in 2017 (February 26)
    69 in 1976
    68 in 1930
    67 in 2016

    Miss seeing you here, Vicki!

      1. You guys gave me happy tears. I’m not far. I have something to sort through, and I know I will. I am just starting to feel better too so that will help. TK has been my health coach ๐Ÿ˜‰ Tom too ๐Ÿ™‚ I do miss you all. I’ll be back soon….just a bit more time.

  41. Driving home up 95 the temperature dropped about 15 degrees right around the peabody danvers area…only 44 and foggy here in groveland 10 miles inland

  42. TK – I am certainly not expecting Eric or any met to break any snow amount to 0.1 inch. Do you believe that the Cape is in on the coating to 2 as well? It’s going to be marginally cold at best here in Boston northward as it is, correct?

  43. Logan 10:00 pm obs.

    43F E6

    Why the sudden sea breeze this evening? I was under the impression that we were well established in the very warm air.

    1. Boundary that was across Maine slid down the coast and into northeastern MA. It’s actually quite common. Recall what I said about living in this area. The upper pattern can look super warm, but the surface operates differently when you’re next to a body of cold water.

  44. Ed Vallee | Vallee Wx Consultingโ€๏€ฒVerified account๏‚™
    @EdValleeWx

    All eastern ridging looks to break down in the 11-15 day. Duration and magnitude of any cold will depend on a number of factors, but patterns such as this rarely fail to deliver active patterns…stay tuned.

    https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/966087319462858752?t=1&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email&iid=0eb87a59c9e642ce9a51ecbd837f7f21&fl=4&uid=419578880&nid=244+293670912

  45. Mount Washington at 11PM at night on Feb 20 is 43 degrees and they reached a high today of 44. All-time record high for the month of February.

  49. Good morning. 57 Degrees at this hour to lunch today’s high temp.
    How hight will it go. Eric predicting 73. Will we over achieve???

    Sun angle “about” the same as Oct. 21. IF Logan keeps a SW wind and it does not
    go More South, then I am thinking perhaps 75 or 76. This will be fun to watch.

    1. Interesting from NWS

      If full mixing is achieved with
      sufficient sunshine, outside chance of a few readings
      approaching upper 70s in NE MA which would be remarkable for
      February.

      Now, I would love to see some area reach 80 this afternoon. If we are going to be warm, then let’s really go for it!

Comments are closed.