Wednesday Forecast

106 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will deliver one more very warm day for much of the region with several records likely falling. There was a boundary of cooler air that moved down the coast from northern New England into northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as far southwest as parts of Metro Boston overnight but it should be pushed back the other way today with a generally southwest flow taking over. This flow will keep the South Coast and Cape Cod cooler, as would be expected. But a cold front is on the way and will sweep through the region from northwest to southeast this evening, producing some rain showers, and delivering colder air. As this cold air arrives, the front will slow to a stop just south of New England and a wave of low pressure will bring an area of precipitation to the region Thursday midday and afternoon, which will be in the form of snow and sleet for parts of the region, along with some minor accumulation. This will be the beginning of a stretch of unsettled weather, with additional waves of low pressure following later Friday and again Saturday night into Sunday. These may produce some frozen or freezing precipitation mainly over interior areas, but otherwise will be largely rain producers. Forecast details…
TODAY: Low clouds and fog possible northeastern coastal MA and Seacoast NH early, and may hang along the South Coast of MA/RI/CT all day. Otherwise, partly sunny. Highs 50-59 immediate South Coast, 60-74 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 35-42. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late morning and afternoon rain southern MA, RI, CT may mix with sleet/snow before ending. Late morning and afternoon sleet/snow central MA to southern NH with a coating to 1 inch possible, perhaps over 1 inch in parts of southern NH. Temperatures steady 35-42 morning, falling to 30-35 afternoon. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Chance of rain which may start as snow/ice at night interior MA/NH. Highs 37-43. Wind light NE to E.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Chance of rain/mix/snow night. Temperatures steady upper 30s to lower 40s then falling slightly.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
A colder trend the last few days of the month with what looks like a minor disturbance passing through with rain/snow showers late February 27. As March gets underway briefly milder with rain/mix March 1 then clearing and colder March 2. Timing uncertain so confidence is low.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)
Expecting a blocking pattern with high pressure across eastern Canada and low pressure between the Mid Atlantic and western Atlantic. This pattern will feature generally near to below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, however the main storminess may be to the south and southeast of New England in this set-up.

106 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. 3 things working against warming some areas as much as yesterday…
    1) Higher dew points.
    2) More stratus.
    3) Marine layer at least partially mixed in or fully in place in some coastal areas.

    A lot of the region may have peaked out yesterday unless things change very quickly.

  4. Thanks TK.

    I understand your reasoning for possibly lower temperatures, but I’ll take the opposite position based on just one fact and one assumption. Fact: the overall air mass is warmer today than yesterday. Assumption: they’ll be plenty of sunshine again today. I think we should see some mid 70s in the usual warm spots, and plenty of 70+ readings. We’ll see what happens 🙂

  5. 60 in jp. dew point 55.
    some breaks of sun, but much stratus. neef that to burn off quickly if we want thr higher temps.

  7. Amazing how Logan went from 70 to 42 yesterday evening. I guess that reflects how cold the ocean is (39-40).

  8. Yet to see any sun here in Woburn.

    SAT pic shows stratus pretty extensive in a lot of the region. We owe that to the higher humidity.

  9. However, in the last 15 minutes or so, I see signs of stratus breaking up. I see more
    Blue sky and more peeks of the sun. We shall see.

    1. If you think about it, those forecasts are not really much different given the amount of snow that is possible. It lends more support to Eric Fisher’s widespread coating to 2 inches, knowing the 2 is probably going to be the exception rather than the rule.

      1. I still am not buying sticking snow in Boston or south tomorrow night especially after this heat respectively don’t agree

        2. Who here forecast sticking snow in Boston specifically? Yesterday I said I’m leaning more toward “flakes in the air” there. I still am. Can’t rule out a few tenths though with a little intensity for an hour.

            1. And they qualified it with words like “potential”.

              None of them came out and said Boston was definitely going to get measurable snow.

              And this is directed at all. I think the majority of people keep forgetting what the term “potential” means in a weather forecast. People see only the words and #’s they want to, and it becomes absolute. I’m not sure how to get the point across to the general public about how to perceive weather forecasts.

              1. Also people only hear the high end of the range and often don’t actually look at how the range impacts their area. Example in springtime – valleys might be 1-3 but hills could be 6-12 with 12 being above 1000ft (areas where few people live) but people will only hear the 12 and apply it region wide.

                1. This has been an ongoing problem. And the same is true with temps and the later days of a 7-day forecast. I just watched the noon news and after the forecaster was doing trying to focus on the upcoming unsettled period the anchor said “Hey that’s ok, next Monday it’s going to be 52 and sunny!”

                  Great.

      2. I have ZERO issues with Eric’s coating to 2 inches. Makes
        perfect sense to me.

        Any possible surprises with this little system?

  12. Yes we finally busted out here!

    A lot of high cloudiness NW though. That’s the broad cloud deck associated with the coming front. It will take a while to get in here so several hours of more sun at least away from the South Coast where it may stay socked in.

    1. Yup, I was just about to post that it is at least 50% sunshine here or more.
      Let’s see how high it goes before the cloud deck rolls in.

  13. 82 degrees at Lion Country Safari—departed Boston in snow—returning in (hopefully) snow again tomorrow. Would like to get one more plowable snow in before March 11 when I head to Israel for 2 weeks.

  15. I believe the GFS is showing the blocking pretty well on the 12z run with storms initially trying to cut towards the great lakes only to be shunted to the South and East. I would really like to see one big storm with a duration longer than 10 hours before this winter ends.

      1. My car thermometer was reading 72. Yesterday at this time it
        read 69 and Logan made 70. Applying the same logic, Logan
        makes 73. Now we wait and see. 😀

      1. Literally a couple degrees difference on the compass make several degrees difference on the thermometer.

        1. Yup, that is why the direction comment above. 😀 😀 😀
          Must be flipping from 230 or 225 to 220 or 215, That’ll do it. 😀

      1. I do notice they’re a consistent warm spot. Maybe it just happens to sit in a local warm area, but you’re probably right that the calibration is a little off on that one. Wouldn’t be shocked if they report an 80 there though.

  21. Over the last several years, several stations’ temperature and/or dewpoint readings have become questionable…

    Boston, Beverly, Marshfield, Fitchburgh are the 4 main offenders. Someone I worked with that is very familiar with this problem tried to find out why nothing is done about it but he got nowhere. I guess it’s just become “accepted error” or 1 to occasional 2 degrees for these stations.

    When I have time I’m going to try to go back in the archives and pinpoint when these errors began, or whether it was instantly or gradually.

    1. I remember back in the 1970s some mets mentioned the heat exhaust from the jets at Logan. Don’t get me started on my opinion of airports for weather related data.

  25. I will tell you living in close proximity to Fitchburg the reports from there always seem off to me for temps and snow accumulation. I have a weather station of my own and I know there is probably some differences from my location, but not that much.

    1. That would be incorrect. This is a sticky point, but in reality it is
      the warmest February day since records have been kept. In all likelihood it has
      been warmer at some point in the past.

  27. 76 degrees is the warmest temperature ever recorded at BDL for the winter and that happened back in December 1998. I remember going to get the Christmas tree that day in short sleeves and shorts.

    1. Looking at the RAP and the HRRR, even though not quite in range,
      appear to be somewhat juicy. I am just wondering if we don’t get
      that sneaky snow TK was mentioning a couple of days ago.

      I mean something in the 2-4 inch range. Just wondering IF that is on the table.

      Will be MOST interested as the HRRR and RAP come more into range.

      Examples so far:

      19Z HRRR

      http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018022119/018/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

      19Z RAP

      http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018022119/021/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

      Of course we would have to transition from rain to sleet then to snow.

      1. If we can get a good coating I will be grateful. I get the impression even 1-2 inches would be an overachievement.

      2. I’ll bet anything Boston won’t even get a coating on the roads tomorrow night I’ll eat crow if needed .

  29. Planning to watch the Olympics tonight for the first time to see the USA Women’s hockey gold medal game. I would love, love to see them beat those Canadians. They should have won last time but blew a 2-0 lead late IIRC. What a game that was!

    Women’s team Canada reminds me of the old USSR men’s team back in the day…totally unbeatable! We will see tonight. 😉

    1. I have watched about 1/2 hour of Olympics this year and that has been it.
      It was the ice dancing as my wife enjoys the skating.

      The problem with the Olympic coverage is that they say in
      the Prime Time slot something like: Slalom skiing, Luge and Ice Skating.
      What they don’t tell you is the TIMES they will be on so one can plan
      accordingly. In a freaking marketing ploy they want you sitting there
      for the entire 3 hours!@()*#*!@&#*(!@&#(!*&@#*!@&

      SCREW them. Then we simply don’t watch.
      Shame on them.

      If they would say: Ice Skating 9 PM to 10 PM, then we would likely watch.

      AND then they jump back and forth. Now back to skiing. We will return
      to ice skating later….. That SUCKS!

      As an aside, I used to love watching ALL of the skiing, including the ski jumping. This year: ZERO INTEREST.

      1. Nothing new JpDave. This is how its been done for many of the Olympic games in the modern era. They keep you hanging until the main events later on in the evening/night. The local news does the same thing as well as radio. Nothing new.

        1. I understand that for sure. Just saying that is one
          of the main reasons we do NOT watch. 😀 😀

          We have been watching the Crown on Netflix.
          I have watched every episode of Travelers and started
          on messengers with Stranger things next.

      2. I like seeing the multiple sports, It use to be that you missed a bunch of events. those ski races/competitions are 3 even 5 hours long. If you had skiing on all the time there be no time for other stuff.

  30. We hit 67 in Plymouth, NH. And now, the front is on the doorstep. Frontal cloud band has arrived. Down we go from here.

  33. As far as the olympics go, the web page outlines the exact times for every event as well as which network it will be on. You can also watch every event live as it happens online, or watch a full event replay later at any time. Some cable setups let you do the same thing using On Demand. These have allowed me to essentially watch every single event of these games. Love it. 🙂

  34. My grandpa said “This warmth would not of happened in February and if you think it’s just weather your a fool” He said just look around you and Don’t be blind

    1. Just weather my friend. Do u honestly think it has never been this warm in Feb before temps were recorded?

      1. It’s live, that’s why. They are 14 hours ahead of us. Olympics can’t always run on Eastern Time. 😉

        The game is actually scheduled for 10:45 according to the web page.

  37. I have to disagree about the regular network coverage. They are showing these events live. They have no choice but to show them when they happen, since they can’t show them before they happen.

    In instances when it was pre-recorded coverage, they made you wait.

  38. Thank you, TK.

    My guess is that like so many years in New England an early day or two of warm weather in February does not mean spring has arrived. If anything it’s probable that we don’t have a 72F day in Boston for at least another 5 weeks and perhaps much longer than that.

    Of note, it’s getting quite cold in Holland. In fact, they’re expecting the shallow canals and `ditches’ as they call them to have enough ice to support skating by the weekend. It’s likely that the next 10-14 days will see temperatures in parts of the country (interior and north) continuously below freezing. Coastal sections and the Western flank will not be as cold. A sprawling Scandinavian high is responsible for steering an easterly wind (which the Dutch call their `Siberian’ source of cold air).

    1. Exactly right.

      This episode of power ridge was brought about by a PV split / AO, and the combined phases of QBO, PNA, MJO. It was similar to the magnitude of our cold trough in 2015, only this lasted a couple days and that lasted a few weeks.

  39. I saw a flying bug outside today… I mean, if that doesn’t mean spring is here, I don’t know what does 🙂

  41. Well, I’m probably the only one here that watched it live, but that was one hell of a gold medal game between the USA & Canada in women’s hockey!

  42. SE Ridge dominance ….. Feb temp anomalies thru 2/21

    Tampa, FL : +10.5F
    Fort Myers :+8.1F
    Jacksonville, FL : +8.9F
    Atlanta, GA : +8.9F

    The heat budget in the southeast is incredible. It’s good to see the blocking coming that will send some cooler air into this region.

  43. I get the idea the chance to get a bit of snow/sleet to accumulate on grassy surfaces has now expanded all the way to the south coast. I also just saw a simulated radar that has frozen precip falling at 7pm (after sunset) in SE Mass. If verifying, that would help it accumulate even better.

        1. Ahh, thanks. Looking over the charts earlier this morning,
          I just didn’t see much evidence of that. We shall see.
          Most everything I saw had a pretty sharp cut off just South of Boston.

  44. Good morning.

    Temperature is jut not falling. Still pretty mild out there.
    Home thermometer was reading 42, while car on the way in was reading 44.

    1. Most of the temperature fall already happened post front and the rest will take place gradually and during midday-afternoon. It’s right where it was expected to be at this point.

  45. I think 1 to 1.5 inches has a chance to verify in eastern Mass IF it snows or sleets from 4:30 to 7pm, at which point the sun will be very low in the western sky or set and the temps will be down to 32F or 33F at that point.

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