Monday PM Forecast Update

225 Comments

3:12PM

Before I get to an updated forecast for eastern MA and nearby neighbors, I would like to thank the many of you that have voted for this blog on WBZ TV’s contest. Please continue to vote! I am overwhelmed by the support I’ve received!

What did happen?

Last night, many of you may have heard heavy rain falling around 2:30-3:30AM in Metro Boston. I had forecast thunderstorms to possibly enter the region around that time and bring heavy rain.  But the truth is, the heavy rain was not from the line I was expecting, but an area of heavy rain that developed and moved in from the south southwest. During this time, the line to the west weakened and slowed down. So this was a case of being right (the rain) for the wrong reason (not from what I expected).

What is happening?

Oh, what a great day today! After clouds to start, sunshine has taken over, and is shining brightly other than when a fair weather cloud passes in front of it. The humidity has dropped but along with that we have a gusty westerly breeze to deal with, maybe a little strong for playing a game of cards outside, but refreshing either way. Despite the beautiful day ongoing, we do have one more disturbance that has to pass by from the northwest later this afternoon and evening, so you may notice some increase in clouds and there is also the slightest risk of a passing shower in a few locations.

What is coming up the next few days?

Once this disturbance exits tonight, the dry air will be reinforced through Tuesday, which will be a bright but with a cool morning and pleasantly mild afternoon, with very low humidity. It will not be as breezy as today as the center of high pressure will be much closer. High clouds will move in later in the day and especially at night, when they may thicken for a while (showers may cross the northern mountains but it should remain dry in southern New England). This will be a warm front passing through the region. This front will be beyond us by Wednesday, which will turn out to be a mostly sunny and warmer day, with a slight but not-too-noticeable increase in humidity. That will occur later at night and especially Thursday ahead of a cold front, which will set off some showers and thunderstorms at some point Thursday or Thursday night. This front is expected to head offshore by Friday when high pressure moves in, bringing fair weather.

The weekend? Irene?

There is too much uncertainty regarding the path and strength of Hurricane Irene to determine just what it will do to this area and when that will occur. So instead of getting sucked into the hype vortex that you can find just about anywhere you look, I’ll just keep it real simple and say this. I am pretty certain we will hear from Irene at some point between Saturday and Monday. I do not know how strong it will be when it gets here and how much rain and/or wind we will see. We need to keep a very close eye on this storm, either way, because there is the potential for a significant impact from it.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT: Becoming partly cloudy. A very slight chance of a shower early in the evening though most areas will remain dry. Temperature cooling through the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Low 52-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TUESDAY: Sunshine, may becoming filtered by increasing high clouds by late afternoon. High 75-80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 83.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain/wind. Low 66. High 76.

MONDAY: Chance of rain or showers then clearing. Low 66. High 79.

NOTE: The SATURDAY-MONDAY period is with low confidence in details and will depend on the track of Irene.

225 thoughts on “Monday PM Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks for the update TK. This is going to be a fun week tracking what Irene will do. If the center of Irene does not interact with Hispanola or Cuba this COULD be an even bigger threat for the U.S. since the water is very warm out ahead of it and very little in the way of wind shear to tear the system apart. One model takes to Florida while the rest having going to the Carolina’s. The new advisory and track will come out at 5pm and then again at 11pm.

    1. It is the most concerned I have been this far in advance in many years. Not to say I’m calling for major impact on SNE at this time, but I would not count anything out right now. Such a long way to go, but it sure will be fun, from a weather nut’s perspective.

  3. Thanks for the update TK. Great job as always!

    Re: Irene, you are so right, however, I sure hope you don’t mind up posting the latest
    model outputs. It is fun watching like we do with the winter storms.

    BTW, which is the model of choice for tracking hrricanes?
    Does the ECMWF handle it decently? the GFS? Is the generally reliable NAM any good at hurricanes? OR should we soley rely on the NHC model products?

    Curious to hear your thoughts

    1. Keep posting! Models are models! The hype that I was referring to resides on certain media outlets. 🙂

  4. I am not sure about models when it comes to hurricanes but I was watching the weather channel and the one model that is an outlier which takes Irene to Florida is one of the more reliable models.

  5. The 12Z NAM takes it to South Florida. We’ll see what subsequent runs bring.
    So I presume it was the NAM.

    Thanks JJ

  6. I am taking this with a huge bucket load of salt but I think its worth of mentioning that on the threat level graphic from The Weather Channel it has a good chunk of SNE in the medium impact category.

  7. The NAM is terrible with tropicals when they are still warm core. It will handle a cyclone in extratropical transition or one that has completed transition much better.

  9. At the risk of sounding hype-ish myself, the majority of the models that are specifically for tropical cyclones are painting a very ominous scenario for New England.

    1. Eh………………. It’s not that great. And is often too slow. It’s been leaning a little west for my liking so far too.

    2. P.S. .. The 12z run, however, may have a decent idea on timing. Forgot to mention that above. I still think it may be just a touch too far west at this stage but there are just too many variables for me to start running around screaming accusations. 🙂

  12. TK,

    Thanks much for your insight. We’ll find out one way or the other.
    I just hope this thing isn’t too powerful, when/if it arrives. The cooler waters
    knocks the you know what out of these systems, so unless it is super powerful to begin with and/or moving very quickly, hopefully it won’t be too bad.

    Still time such that it could be an inside runner (sorry, couldn’t resist) or stay off shore.

    1. What the cooler water knocks out of them, the forward speed/acceleration and wind field expansion during extratropical transition can put right back in, especially if the center passes west or overhead.

      1. Though it must also be noted that with Hurricane Bob in 1991, the wind field expanded in such a way that my strongest winds were after the storm went by, blowing from the NW. That is when we saw the majority of the damage in the suburbs north and west of Boston.

  13. Hello I am becoming ever so concerned with Irene, now I don’t like hypebut there is a potential this comes through our area as a strong tropical storm possibly a hurricane, 65-85mph. I’m thinking also it could come right over or just west of our area, it’s a growing concerns.

  14. TK,

    Ok, to a point. It just seems to knock a good deal of the punch out of them. That is
    NOT to say it isn’t or shouldn’t be a concern. Look what Bob did to the Cape.

    Cheers

  15. 18Z NAM, still has Irene Barrelling into Sout Florida:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F22%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    tried to get one panel, if it is the whole loop, I apologize

  18. Tk, Agree. Wonder how it can be that far off.
    It is clear it will not be moving that way.

    If it hits SC and/or NC, then it will clearly lessen the impact here.

    Not that I wish it on them at all.

  19. Hi Guys- I finnaly talked to my friend in myrtle beach this morning. He said they got there at 7pm last night because they hit horrible weather on the way down. He is watching the forcast down there. He is there till Saturday. He was saying he thought it was going to hit after he leaves, but that does not sound right is it.

    1. Based on current forecasts, I would not still be there Saturday, unless I was me, in which case I would stay. But that’s me. 😉

      1. Sorry bad typing. It was supposed to say he wants to be out of the area before any forced evacuations

  21. Didn’t both bob and Gloria hit NC? Or would Irene have a more direct hit taking some of her punch

    1. Hurricane Gloria barely scraped the Outer Banks.
      Hurricane Bob did not make any landfall in the USA before New England.

      1. Thanks TK. I remembered coverage from NC outer banks but that would have had to be just from them passing by

  22. I don’t remember Gloria since I was an infant but I believe it was the hurricane that tracked right through the CT River Valley.

    1. The center crossed the Connecticut River in MA on a NNE track from southwestern through north central CT and eventually into NH then Maine.

  24. If you look at the track intensity forecast it is boardline category 4 with winds at 130 mph. I wonder if that is being conservative due to the fact of the warm water and very little in the way of shear in front of it. If it takes the center line it goes into the Carolina’s as a category 2 boardline category 3 storm. As I said earlier I hope the preparations have begun for folks from the Carolina’s to Florida.

    1. It would not surprise me to be at 135 MPH when it is forecast to be 125. This hurricane will reach Cat 4 over water but weaken before landfall.

  26. Not officially my forecast right now, but if I had to place a bet on the track of Irene, I’d take the 18z GFS pretty much verbatim.

  27. I know it’s early and only a hunch but I think Falmouth is going to get it, then up the coast. I hope it goes out to sea though for everyones sake.

  30. Vicki- I just got an email from Pembroke country club on wacky wednesdays. Golf 6:30am-12pm $35per person with cart. It said to call them. Just thought I would pass this on. Oh It’s 18holes.

    1. Thanks John. We have friends coming Wednesday but when I told my husband what you said he said pembroke is part of the golf package he bought earlier in the season fir $100 allowing you to play six courses. He’s planning to play it next week. He asked me to thank you very much for thinking of him.

  31. TK, I agree not the absolute worst scenario, but if it verifies, it still looks very ugly (to my untrained eye).

  36. I agree JJ but maybe TK can shed light on it?
    I do think the high over the Midwest and over the ocean is steering this right at us so maybe the GFS is seeing that now.

    1. Keeping it very simple, I just think the GFS set today (all of the runs) have a decent handle on the upper level pattern, other than the 18z putting too much emphasis on troughing in the Northeast later in the period. You can see this in the very small overall distance spread in Irene’s position and timing relative to New England. And the GFS does a half decent job at tropical placement at this stage – better than the Euro and better than the NAM. I used to use GFS info for tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere as well as the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and western Pacific cyclones in the northern hemisphere, when writing my tropical forecasts in my previous job.

  37. The 18z run is Gloria minus 10 MPH on the wind, and +1-3 inches on the rain. Gloria was an anemic rain producer, no surprise given its track.

  38. I second what coastal said. Tk could you please tell us more on what the 18z gfs looks like, and what that means for Boston area and south shore towns. Thank’s.

    1. The 18z is more of a wind producer and less of a rain producer, BUT the trajectory is also a little more over land down by the Carolinas, which would surely impact the strength. If the 00z run shifts even the slightest bit east, go with it.

  39. So If I read that right you are saying that we may have some serious wind to contend with here. The kind of wind that we would really have to worry about here. Tk I know Its early, but what is the chances here of this thing really panning out. What is the day that would give us the best track.

  40. Tk, if you had to rate the conditions in eastern new england based on info you have now, would it be minor, moderate, extreme. Then rate the coast.

  42. Interesting stuff ! I’m supposed to start back to work Monday (teacher’s only) and students start on Tuesday. Could you imagine losing a few school days to damage or region power outages because of a tropical system. Enjoyed reading the discussion above.

  44. Sunday high tide times….

    South coast of New England 7:45am and 8 pm

    East coast of New England : 3 hrs later.

    By Sunday, the tides are astronomically rising quickly. Bad for high tide, but this also makes the low tide lower, which could help absorb some of a surge if any system hit at low tide.

  45. Kevin Lemanowicz over on FOX-25 showed a consensus of different models…and they all trend EAST away from the NC coastline! Irene could very well arrive here without touching any land or very little. I assume that would not be good for us, other than a complete miss out to sea.

    1. If that trend continues, it’ll never make landfall, until it gets to Europe as a strong extratropical cyclone. 😉

  46. TK, I get the feeling that you don’t particularly like those “spaghetti” maps? I started the discussion over on the WBZ blog last year when we were tracking Earl and you didn’t seem impressed by them in general. So far tonight Kevin Lemanowicz and Pete Bouchard used them to show the possible tracks of Irene…a couple do go out to sea and one takes it just to the south of Nantucket. The others of course bring Irene right up here.

      1. TK, are the spaghetti maps used moreso for the tv viewer than the met? I just assumed since tv mets show them, they are another useful tool to predict trends.

    2. Being serious for a moment…it’s not that I don’t like the plots, but I am not a fan of showing them on air to the general public. I think it causes more confusion than anything. What is the public going to get out of seeing 15 “possible” tracks? I suppose it can be used as long as a decent and simple explanation is provided.

      1. TK, I guess we both posted our thoughts at exactly the same time, lol. Anyway for this particular viewer, if I am shown a gazillion different directions then yes they are very confusing, but if the tracks are going in generally the same direction then I get a better idea of what might end up happening with a particular storm. I kinda like them myself, but at the same time I believe I do understand your point now. 🙂

  49. 00z GFS looks like a near possible worse case scenario for us. Really hoping it’s not a trend. At what point TK do we start preparing like this might happen? When does confidence grow that it really isn’t going to swing and miss either way.

  50. Well the Irene track seems to be trending east once again this AM. At the same time, I would like to disbelieve the 00z GFS.

  54. It sure seems that way coastal…but at 5 day window a hurricane has a error of 250 miles which clearly can make a huge difference. I think the prudent thing is to keep vigilant and see what we are by thursday.

  55. Last year they had Earl projected to hit at least the islands as close as the night before and it missed. I’m just hoping for a TS. I am pretty sure we could ride that out here. Wed have to head home if it’s a hurricane but if that is the case so be it. A few days interruption doesn’t compare to the loss and damage one of these can cause.

    1. Hi Vicki.

      They are lowest today…then start to increase slowly in range tomorrow. If Sunday is the day, then the evening tide about 8pm in Buzzards and Narraganset Bays are very concerning, because they are astronomically high. I believe hurricane Bob created a 10 plus foot surge in Buzzards Bay and I think I have seen old black and white photos of Providence, RI with bad flooding from the 1938 Hurricane. If the 0z GFS verifies, surgewise it would be best if it passed through at low tide in the early afternoon.

      1. Thanks Tom. That’s not good. Confirms if it arrives as a hurricane that we need to leave here. High tide now is about 50 ft from our deck with the river same distance from back of house

  58. The 06ZGFS is scary for us and consistent with all runs yesterday.
    The 0Z ECMWF is more Eastward than yesterday’s run.

    Looks ominous to be sure. Still time for a variation.

  59. Just read through the forecast discussion form NHC and they are projecting no decrease in power over the next 5 days. I think by Thursday we will have a pretty good track set in stone.

  60. The NHC has Irene Making landfall near the SC/NC border.

    If this were to happen, then we would be spared the brunt of the storm.
    We’d still get copious rain and some gusty winds.

    If they are wrong (GFS correct) and this thing stays off shore and makes a direct hit on us, then that is a totally different story. Much at stake with the path.

  61. Hadi,

    Sure, by Thursday we’ll have a much better idea, but Hurricanes seem to go where they want to go and often times, the “Official” track is off.

    I only hope it heads out to sea, as much as that appears unlikely at this point. Unfortunately, it looks like SC/NC will take the brunt of this beast, sparing us.

    Like I said above, there is still time for track variation.

  62. Not that it necessarily means much, but the 06Z NAM has it MUCH farther East
    than previous runs.

  63. Looking at the last two GFS runs and its not a pleasant outcome if that were to happen. If it keeps shifting east then it might a bee line at us.

  65. The bottom line with Irene is were going to get something here. There are some models that keep Irene offshore but to me with a large system impacts will be felt here in SNE whether that would be big time waves, rain, or wind. The Bahammas and the Carolina’s are going to bare the brunt here.
    Just to go off topic here watching the possiblity for thunderstorm activity on Thursday ahead of the next cold front. Storm Prediction Center has us in the general thunderstorm category. This does not look that impressive in terms of a big severe weather outbreak at this time but there could be some severe storms. With that said thunderstorm index at 2 for Thursday since there is POTENTIAL for some severe storms.

  66. Ocean temps south of New England are in the mid to upper 70s and the magic 80 line is right around the Delaware/NJ border.

  68. If Irene stays over water, we’re in for it. The waters South of NE are “probably” just warm enough in combination with the foreward acceleration of the system to maintain
    enough intensity to give us problems.

  70. Hadi,

    I really don’t know. If this were winter, I’d be leaning towards an “Inside Runner”.
    So IF you are asking me what I think, I’d have to go with that.

    BUT, there is still so much time, that virtually anything “could” happen, including a DIRECT HIT up here. IF the 12Z GFS still has a direct hit and the 12Z Euro comes more Eastward, I’ll start to get worried. As long as the hurricane models continue to take it inland, I “think” we’ll be OK.

    TK, your current thinking?

  71. TK, in your opinion are the hurricane models, GFDL and HWRF, any better than traditional models, GFS, Euro, etc., at forecasting a track. And if so, do you have a good link to see them. My searches are not coming up with much.

  78. I agree! I have been waiting for that little jog in the track that would start a trend away. But that has not happened yet.

  79. If I had a boat down the Cape, I’d seriously consider getting it out of the water now,
    but I don’t, so I don’t have to worry about it. I’ll only need to move some lawn furniture (if necessary) so I can wait until the last minute for that.

    1. I am in the process of remodeling my bathroom. I gutted the bathroom down to the studs. I simply threw out all the debris out the window and it still there. I was going to wait until I was finished but it appears I may want to get it out of there sooner.

    2. Old salty. I’ve been watching for signs of people pulling boats here but haven’t seen any. Are they covering this on the major stations yet? We haven’t seen any TV

  82. Maybe I have been looking at too many “spaghetti” maps, but it is looking more and more likely to me that Irene is either going to give SNE a direct hit…or out to sea just south of us. I have the feeling that an inland track is already OFF the table.

    Maybe the “latter” scenario will happen? We will see with 5 days out.

  83. The cone of uncertainity comes up to Long Island with 11AM advisory. I would be shocked if all of SNE is not in that cone at the 5pm advisory. At 8AM Sunday near Chespeake Bay it is still forecasted to be a category 1 storm with winds of 75mph. I noticed they backed off on Irene getting up to category 4 strength but I wonder if that is being conservative since to me very little shear and very warm water to me is conducive for Irene to strengthen.

  84. JJ I’m with you. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t become a Cat 4
    at some point and perhaps even a 5. There is nothing to stop it. As you say, no shear, plus water temps are in the range of 84-86F, plenty warm enough to intensify this beast.

  85. I think that the only thing holding it back some is the intereaction of higher terrain over Hispanola. Once it moves off shore a bit more, it should explode. Nice to be an amateur and be able to say that.

  87. All I can say is that it will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Praying that if it does come up here it loses some steam!!

  88. I think the thing to remember here is because Irene is a large storm even if it the center stays out over the fish there is still going to be impacts here in SNE. Another thing the cone of uncertainity for a tropical system 5 days out is about 200 miles.

  89. Matt Souza posted over on the WBZ blog that the most rains occur to the east of a hurricane track, but I always thought that the rains occur north & west and the strongest winds are on the east side. Who is correct on this??

    Regardless, I would like Matt to post over here as well…

  90. Strongest winds are on the East side for sure.
    Not sure about the rains. I “think” it could be in either quadrant.

  92. TK on a previous post mentioned that even though our ocean waters are significantly cooler, hurricanes just prior to arrival tend to greatly increase their forward speed which still gives SNE significant problems anyway. I hope I understood TK correctly on that.

    A lot good the “cooler” waters did for SNE in 1938, for instance. Best case scenario would be for Irene to turn NE or ENE “somewhere” south of Long Island.

  93. I remember and I could be wrong here but the right side of the hurricane is where the strongest winds are and the side that could spin up tornadoes which is why in most cases a tornado watch is posted when a landfalling tropical system is about to happen. To the left its more the heavy rain.

  94. Philip,

    The “cooler” waters will have an impact on Irene. It all depends on the foreward
    speed of the system as it gets up here. Usually it speeds up enough that it can maintain, enough intensity to cause problems. Obviously, The more intensity maintained, the more serious the problems. Plus, the “cooler” waters to our South
    Are fairly warm which should “Slow” down any degeneration, even thought it will still happen.

  95. JJ,

    re: tornados

    Generally speaking, they haven’t been a problem up here with any landfalling hurricanes that I can remember. I remember seeing tornado watches up with a hurricane, but don’t recall any actual tornados.

    However, given that, I can remember some extensive damage in my neighborhood
    with GLORIA, that I would swear was caused by a tornado and not the straight line wind with the hurricane. Trees down in a more circular pattern and an absolutely flattened garage. But I will never know for sure. It was never investigated as the owners of the property just chaulked it up as hurricane damage.

  98. Hi all! Saw all questions. Having a mobile issue so will answer all between 3 and 5 along with the next update! Keep chatting. 🙂

  99. I can not understand where this storm, as of NOW, is projected to make landfall. It started by cutting through the center of Fla; then it shifted to making landfall in GA; then SC; then NC; and now ??

  100. Longshot,

    Here is the latest 12ZGFS at 78Hours:

    It looks like it wants to clip Cape Hatteras, NC and head on up this way.
    We’ll see with the rest of the run. My guess now is a hit on the outerbanks
    of NC and then we are in for it.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F23%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

    1. Phillip,

      I couldn’t tell whether she was up-to-date on the latest model runs during her cast. Also the spaghetti charts were all over the place — I agree with TK, I am not sure they are helpful.

      1. I think they are better suited to in-house use, not on the air showing. Let the meteorologist decipher them and present the best conclusion they can reach on the air.

  105. Very scary 12z track, makes land fall in LI then moves through central CT and turns slightly NE through mass. The eastern mass coast would get nailed.

  106. I am going for my annual eye exam later this aft. so I likely won’t be on again ’til tomorrow – unless my eyes clear up from dilation by tonight. In any case, lots of interesting scenerios right now w/Irene. It’s still early in the game but it seems to be getting more interesting for New England.

    1. Rainshine, I always get my eyes dilated during my annual exam as well. It takes several hours afterward to get cleared up. I wish there was an alternative or a much faster solution.

      Anyway, take your time…we are not going anywhere for sure! 🙂

    2. Rainshine had mIne done a month ago. I wore sunglasses trying to work on the computer afterwards. Took me a couple of hours and a nap. Nap didn’t help my eyes but I was rested 🙂

  109. Hate to break up all the model discussions – just want to put in briefly what I remember with Gloria.

    The night before Gloria, I remember Bruce Schwoegler saying “Good Luck.” I think – on the 11:00 p.m. forecast. I didn’t sleep much that night. The next morning, I noticed what looked like fog on the ground. We were living in Framingham at the time and with Gloria we didn’t get much rain at all – just a period of strong winds. However, the next day, a cold front came through with some relatively strong thunderstorms and heavy rains.

    Anyway – continue on, guys and ladies! 🙂 I appreciate the fact that I can follow all these updated tracks on this blog.

    1. Rainshine, I seem to remember a good deal of fog as well. I also remember that just prior to Gloria’s arrival it was awful humid to say the least. My bet is those dew points were as high as the low 80’s…at least that’s how it felt.

      I atteneded Framingham State College (now University) and the campus did have some damage, but managed to re-open for classes the following Monday. IIRC the school got its power back late Sunday afternoon. I commuted between Boston and Framingham and if you didn’t get there early, it was sometimes near impossible to get a parking space.

      1. Rainshine I remember the fog too and the winds I was looking out the window when a huge weeping willow went down in the house next doors yard. I remember sitting on the porch that the wind came from the south in huge waves and sounded like a huge freight train.

        Philip my son in law is attending fram state. He loves it.

  111. Btw, The latest from NHC has irene at 980mb and 100 mph.
    If you look at the above GFS link, it has it as 980mb. Not sure if the 100mph
    would translate this far North, but it IS something to think about.

    1. Since it will become extra-tropical when it gets to us, I don’t think the winds will be as strong as they are now.

  115. My Wife called in a panic, she thought the house was going to collapse it was shaking so much!!!

    You all HAD to have felt that one.

  116. I gotta tell ya, the latest track has it skimming the carolinas and coming through here as a strong cat 1 hurricane Sunday

  121. I am down on Cape in North Truro and do not detect boats being secured or removed today. In fact, a few of the people we have talked to are on vacation, slated to depart on Saturday…….Old Salty, 5.8 in Virgina felt all the way to New England…NECN.

    1. Didnt feel a thing down here, of course, the Cape is mostly all sand, probably doesnt transport shock wave well.

    2. I would think the sharp cutoff of precip would be more indicative of a hurricane/TS than a E-Tropical Storm. The storm covers more are when it transitions.

    1. Are you in Boston Hadi. I didn’t see this post until I posted mine below. Was there any damage where you are. Shaking was bad enuf here to make us all slightly nauseous from sway. But as I said we are on stiltz

  129. The hurrican models still insist on Landfall in NC and an inland route, at least for a period of time. Other operational models keep it off shore or barely hugging shore.

    Hope for the inland route. Still waiting for Euro.

  130. This may sound silly but has anyone reported an earthquake in the area? The house here just shook enough to rattle windows and pictures. It’s on stilts but the wind is nowhere near as string as yesterday and it didn’t shake then at all

    1. Thanks for all the links, it really makes getting info easy and is greatly appreciated.

      Off to more beach, but my one remaining hesitation on a direct hit is the strength of the Atlantic ridge, which has been weak, non-existent or displaced very far eastward all summer. Now, its going to be strong enough to direct a major hurricane into New England. All the models are showing it, so, I’ll go with it, however, I dont have 100 percent confidence in it yet.

  133. 5.9 earthquake northwest of Richmond. I don’t recall in my lifetime an earthquake that strong on the east coast.

  134. JJ neither do I. The ones I can recall were something like 4.5 or so and centered in
    Quebec. Still felt them here.

  136. JJ/OS,

    Of course you remember. There was an earthquake off Cape Ann just 200 years ago. You both were younger at the time.

  137. Riner on 7 said there was one on cape ann about this size in 1755 November. I remember one in new England or just south of it in the 1990s that we didn’t feel but our horses did.

  138. I actually lost my home to the Northridge Earthquake in 1994 while living in a neighboring town, Sherman Oaks. Very fortunately none of us were hurt and I had earthquake insurance.

  139. The last time there was an earthquake this strong where the epicenter was back in 1897 from what I heard.

  140. 12Z Euro at 120 Hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1

    12Z Euro at 144 Hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1

    This shows an absolute monster at 955MB. Too bad we don’t have an intermediate
    run, but even so, based on this, we are in for it.

  144. The Euro trend is more to the East since previous run.

    I am truly worried now.

    Still time, but doesn’t look good.

  146. A lot of the global guidance is pointing to a big hit for us, I just wonder if they all could be off?

  147. Hi all!! If I missed a question you pointed my way, please repost it on the next blog update, which will be coming up by 4PM.

    Felt the quake in Reading MA. Notable in how long it lasted.

    Feel free to comment on that as well as weather! New blog coming shortly…

    1. TK. They said on the news it lasted a half a minute. It was at least 3 minutes here. I am surprised by it’s length too

  148. Vicki,

    I agree, lasted longer than 30 seconds. I’m in a building only 6 years old. Pretty solid building and it shook for a solid minute. My wife at home, wood frame house, felt it was more like 2 minutes. I was on the phone with her and our house was still shaking long after my office building stopped shaking.

Comments are closed.