Thursday Forecast

101 Comments

9:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
The front is to the south now, the spring/summer preview is over, and we return to weather a little more seasonable, and part of that includes a period of precipitation today as a wave of low pressure slides along the front just to the south. This will start out as rain for many, possibly sleet/snow in southern NH and far northern MA, and then the transition will be to bring the sleet/snow area further south, but by the time it would reach the South Coast region the precipitation should be set to move out and only a rain/sleet mix would occur there. Elsewhere, where sleet/snow occurs for a longer time, there will probably be a minor accumulation. This is gone tonight, and as the boundary sits to the south the next disturbance will come along and bring another round of precipitation late Friday and Friday night. It should be cold enough to support a little sleet/snow favoring central MA and southern NH followed by a transition to rain, with a mix to rain or just rain elsewhere, although we’ll have to keep an eye on surface temperatures over the interior typical cold spots for the possibility of freezing rain. A larger area of low pressure follows this into southeastern Canada but its sweeping occluded front will spawn a new low to track just south of or over the region Sunday and Sunday night, and this will bring yet another round of precipitation that may be similar to the one late Friday, again watching similar areas for some snow/sleet/freezing rain, though rain should be dominant in most of the region. This one-two-three unsettled episode then comes to an end as high pressure moves in during Monday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Precipitation develops west to east midday and early afternoon as snow/sleet/rain north and rain south, then transitions to sleet then snow southward but only mixing with sleet South Coast. Temperatures fall slowly through the 30s. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with snow except rain/sleet South Coast region, ending early, with accumulation of a coating to 1 inch away from the South Coast except possibly up to 2 inches in higher elevations of central MA and southern NH. Mostly cloudy overnight. Untreated surfaces will be icy. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE to N.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain except possibly sleet/snow parts of central and northeastern MA to southern NH but no significant accumulation. Highs 35-42. Wind light NE to SE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain except areas of freezing rain, sleet, snow possible central and northeastern MA to southern NH, tapering off late evening. Lows 30-37. Wind light SE to S.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind light SW to NW.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain except possible mix north central MA to southern NH. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s, mildest South Coast.
MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
A weakening low pressure area may bring a few clouds February 27 but no precipitation expected at this time. High pressure dominates with fair weather February 28. Low pressure brings the chance of rain/mix/snow March 1 before a drying but windy/colder trend takes over March 2-3.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)
Large scale pattern will feature a block with high pressure in eastern Canada to Greenland and low pressure near the US East Coast with near to below normal temperatures and episodes of unsettled weather here, which may include some frozen precipitation.

101 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. ************** REMINDER **************

    “Coating to 1 inch away from South Coast and possibly up to 2 inches higher elevations …. ” DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN YOU WILL GET 2 INCHES IN YOUR BACK YARD. It means that if a coating occurs, that is still a correct forecast. And it should go without saying that pavement will not accumulate as much as unpaved surfaces. So a “coating” on the grass may result in only wet pavement. 1 inch on the grass may result in only a slushy trace on pavement. There are different types of surfaces that sit at different temperatures. Some of them may be treated. Others may not be. Things are variable.

    Weather 101 is now dismissed. Thank you.

    2. Even if they don’t get anything on pavement/cement my concern is the temp dropping below freezing while the pavement/cement is still wet tonight.

  4. NOTE: The 12km 12z NAM has over-inflated snow/sleet amounts prompted by the Sunday system. It’s reasonable through Friday night. Toss it after that.

    2. Yes, this is a process that takes place rather routinely, in varying degrees of magnitude. Some of the headlines will try to make you think otherwise. This process has taken place as long as we’ve been observing weather, and I would be willing to bet long, long before we were observing it too. 😉

    1. Ice pellets that far South already. Amazing. Pretty cool.
      I wonder if Boston sees snow to start? OR Sleet? Seems like it will not
      start as rain here. Time will tell.

    1. They look good. Ch 25’s may be a bit over-aggressive but I technically it can verify if things come together just right.

  9. I had a brief rain/sleet mix earlier. Just a few drops since. Have to wait a little while to get steadier stuff in here along with cold enough air.

    I know there are people that were already expecting a full 2 inches of snow covering every exposed surface before the event had a chance to get going, but they’ll have to wait and then probably be satisfied with far less than 2 inches. 😉

    BTW, the 12z GFS is not that interested in blocking up the pattern. It’s probably an anomalous run though. It’s completely different from the runs preceding it. I’ll check the ensembles in a bit.

    1. Any ideas on when the next plowable event may occur? Will the blocking pattern be over by St. Patrick’s Day or so?

  11. Watching an Olympics biathlon relay race taking place in light to moderate snow & occasional blowing snow. This will make it fun. 🙂

  12. I have experienced no percipitation in Quincy thus far. This means all the meteorologists have been wrong and will be out in the docks in the town square with giant bowls of yesterday’s tomatoes in full supply for the populace to hurl.

  13. Just a little light snow here in Plymouth, NH so far today. Barely a dusting. Some final thoughts from me on yesterday:

    1. How impressive was the long range forecasting of that heat? I recall mentioning over a week ago that I needed to check the all time high temperature records for February, and indeed many of those fell in the Northeast and even further south as well. Rare that such an extreme prediction can be made in advance with high confidence. All time monthly records are no joke.

    2. How impressive was the heat itself? And its corresponding upper air pattern? Everything about yesterday fell well, well outside of climatology. Easily the most impressive meteorological event this winter. Second year in a row I would rank a wintertime heat event as the “highlight” of the meteorological winter. The 1/4 blizzard falls to second on my list for this winter.

    Now, onto the pattern change. Quite an ugly (stormy) look at the longer ranges on the 12z Euro. Not sure how long we’re going to get blocked for, but such a pattern is coming, at least for a little while.

    1. The warm event reminded me a little of the one from Christmas 2016.

      I still think 1-4 ranks higher for me though. The bomb-out was in the top 10 that I’ve witnessed in my lifetime and was to me more exciting than a couple days of record warmth. But taking a walk around a local pond yesterday was quite nice!

  14. Looks warm on the 12z EURO despite a track offshore and the low looks like its being pushed back from a strong defensive line once it gets up here.

    1. That entire thing is not really a “conventional” storm or pattern. It’s a large scale pattern evolution so typical “rules” won’t fully apply.

    2. The air is not always uniformly colder as you go west and/or north. Also, there was a little bit of an intensity factor as well. But I’m also skeptical of some of the obs, particularly ORH and FIT. FIT was reporting rain at 3PM and I don’t think I buy it. But I know someone that lives right near the airport so I just put a message out to him.

  17. In the let’s keep tabs on this one category. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Big signal for a big coastal storm late next week. Big time block retrograding from Greenland to the Davis Strait.

    1. Of course “coastal storm” can mean near or off any part of the East Coast, and I think something comes through here on March 1 and evolves into a larger system far offshore and southeast.

  19. Already hearing from people saying I thought we were supposed to be getting 3″ of snow today?

    Good reminders for everyone as we approach March about how impacts of snow / frozen precip can be quite different from model output / earlier season events.

    As for late next week – Impacts could be highly variable, let alone any sensible weather forecast at this time. I have no more value in an ECMWF prognostication than a GFS or an AVN/ETA/NGM blend.

    1. I’m laughing because I basically pre-addressed this above. Not directed at our bloggers here, but more a general statement.

      I’m seeing things on FB like “snow?! WTF” to which I reply: “February. Snow. Normal occurrence.”

  20. Amazing, 72 yesterday and snow flying today. Not that this only happens
    in New England, because it happens in the Mid-West and the Rocky Mountain states
    as well. Still pretty cool none-the-less

    1. I love it. Yes my friend lived in Denver for a decade and she would report to me the 80+ one day to snow and blowing snow the next on several occasions. It’s more extreme than here. 🙂

  21. The anomolous warmth and school vacation at the same time was the best that could have happened. Classrooms would have been somewhat uncomfortable in some towns. The other day on my way home from work on the bus, the driver turned on the A/C which felt good to say the least in spite of it being February.

  26. Looking like about 1/24 inch so far.
    Hopefully, Logan is adding ever so slightly to its season total. 😀

        1. I mean not straight snow for the entire region. There are alot of possibilities on the table this far out. I just don’t think we’ll be cold enough for a “nothing but snow” event if that one occurs at that point.

    1. My initial feeling is that we get one go by us with some impact on March 1, then the monster evolves well offshore (southeast of here) and we’re mainly dry March 2-3. After that, we’ll see.

        1. No idea. Feb 22 to March 1 (assuming I’m even right about that) is a very long time distance to judge impact. Ask me on February 27 or 28.

  35. 0.6” here in Coventry CT and snow has ended. 31 degrees. Everything is covered, even a bit of slush in areas on the secondary roads.

    I can safely say I have never experienced a 5 day stretch in winter living in the northeast where we have had two 70+ degree days bookended by two snow events.

  36. Just saw from a tweet from Eric 0.5 recorded with Boston snow total for the season now at 35.3 inches.

    1. That is correct. Thanks Jimmy! 🙂

      Now Logan has 8.5″ to go to normal. With the upcoming pattern, a very good chance, maybe a bit above.

      43.8″

  37. TK and JMA have alluded to this, and I’ll add myself to their line of thinking… I think if the SNE region is to get a big snowstorm out of this coming pattern, it will come in the second week of March, not the first. There’s definitely potential for a storm or two off the East Coast going into late next week, but the evolution doesn’t presently look (to me) to favor significant snow in SNE. By the second week of March though, if the PNA starts to climb and we hang onto some residual blocking, then the overall pattern could be more favorable.

    It’s a very different pattern we’re going into though. From screaming fast and small disturbances, to a grinding crawl which may have us dancing with some powerful ocean lows. Not a cold pattern either. Cooler, but not cold.

    1. Indeed. I was walking in from the parking lot and was admiring just how beautiful today is and despite whatever the actual temperature is/was, it
      felt very mild with the light wind and warm sunshine on my face. Wonderful!!!

      Now, I am thinking that Boston gets its famous EAST wind today.

  39. Why with a blocking pattern setting up in the long range is the cold air in retreat. I understand it will be early March and the sun can moderate some, but I figured a high latitude block would send some late season polar or arctic air southward. The 850 nb temps from hours 168 onward don’t look that cold.

    1. It’s not a block that occurs with fully phased jets. The longitudes from the western Atlantic to eastern US will be on the milder side while a larger trough to the west and another in Europe is where the coldest air will be.

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