Friday Forecast

53 Comments

9:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
As we head into the final days of February we will transition from an active pattern with low pressure systems having just departed with yesterday’s rain/sleet/snow to 2 more coming with rain and some mix later today and again Sunday to a quieter pattern early next week as the atmosphere gets ready for a larger scale change… No big changes regarding the upcoming systems from yesterday’s discussion. Will watch the cold air for possible snow/sleet in some interior locations for both of these, but neither will turn out as widespread frozen precipitation situations. At the moment I only think freezing rain could be briefly an issue in some of the valley locations of far north central MA and southwestern NH tonight and again early Sunday, but this should be very limited. Forecast details…
TODAY: Some morning sun then clouding over. Late-day rain except possibly sleet/snow parts of central and northeastern MA to southern NH but no accumulation. Highs 37-44. Wind light NE to SE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain except a couple areas of freezing rain in valleys north central MA to southwestern NH, tapering off late evening. Lows 30-37. Wind light SE to S.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind light SW to NW.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain except possible mix north central MA to southern NH to start. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s, mildest South Coast.
MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
February ends quietly with fair weather on its last day. The early days of March see a change in the large scale pattern as a block develops in the atmosphere, but this block may be strong enough so that after an initial rain/mix/snow event on March 1 a larger storm will evolve well offshore to the southeast of New England for a couple days, keeping the region dry or with just a few rain/snow showers, breezy conditions, and rough surf along the coast, and then we’ll have to monitor for a backing-up of this system late in the period for more direct impact. These patterns can evolve in a complex manner so confidence is not high at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)
The pattern that evolves to start the month should continue during this period bringing cool but not super cold weather and a fairly high risk of unsettled weather.

53 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK.

    No idea how late next week is going to pan out but the models sure have some interesting solutions with that huge block taking shape.

    0z Euro has a loaded system approaching from the west and it basically disintegrates before it hits New England and transfers its energy to an ocean storm well southeast and out to sea.

    CMC gets us pretty good but its a snow to rainer with not enough cold air in place.

    1. The medium range runs will vary greatly in detail but should have the overall pattern locked in (though we’ll see on that).

      I have been liking the scenario of passing low pressure here March 1 then offshore evolution March 2-3 followed by retrogression sometime in the March 4-6 window. Of course this is an early idea still.

  2. 0z Euro control run crushes us next weekend with a 969mb low looping around the benchmark and pounding us for hours….lol

  3. From NWS :re next week:

    Continued preference to ensembles. N Atlantic traffic build up, an
    omega-block evolves lending to a strongly -NAO. Evolution towards a
    rex-block retrogressing as energy continually emerges from upstream
    out of a W CONUS H5 trof pattern, indications the initial region of
    preferred storm development off SE Canada alters W closer to the E
    CONUS. The slowed pattern allowing cyclones to mature and later
    occlude in our neighborhood, forecast model consensus trending with
    a deep, strong storm in our vicinity for the beginning of March. Way
    out in time, can hardly touch on details and specifics, continued
    ensemble member spread. However can`t ignore such robust signal when
    tides are reaching their peak (Boston around 11.5 feet). Until then
    will keep it dry and near-seasonable right on up through Thursday.
    Then all eyes are upon a potential storm system.

    1. So NWS and I have the same overall idea but slight difference on details.

      Me: Passage of system March 1, offshore evolution, then retrogression.

      Them: Dry March 1, evolution of system nearby with retrogression as well.

  4. TK – I am getting the impression that any snow events from now on should they occur will be with marginally cold air as opposed to more direct arctic air.

    Am I pretty much correct on that much?

    1. Through early March anyway. I think the pattern that evolves as we start the month will stay in place for long enough that this could be the case through my forecast period above. There could be a couple instances once we break this block down where we coincide a deeper polar or arctic airmass with a storm system, but you can only speculate based on the assumed pattern so far in advance. But for the foreseeable future, I’d agree with your impression.

  6. Confidence level is very high in the Netherlands for a sustained late winter extended cold snap, with well below normal temperatures and little precipitation. This is due to a strong stationary area of sprawling high pressure over Scandinavia, which acts as a block preventing Atlantic lows from crossing the northern European continent. While Holland experiences occasional cold snaps (when they occur they’re generally sustained for 2-3 week periods without much variation in temperature and with little or no precipitation), it’s quite unusual in late February/early March as the Netherlands is often in sustained early spring mode while we’re still experiencing winter. The opposite appears to be the case right now. The expectation is that there will be skating on the Amsterdam canals by next week. This hasn’t happened in 6 years, and hasn’t occurred in March for decades.

    1. I enjoy your posts on other parts of our world. Thank you, Joshua. My grandson will especially like this as he seems fascinated with that area.

  8. The 12z GFS sure is a nice, beautiful springlike look for 3/1 and beyond. If that run verifies, we could pull out a solid 30 minutes of sunshine the first week of March 😉

    On a more realistic note, as TK said earlier, don’t expect guidance, especially the deterministic runs, to have much of a clue about details beyond 5 days out right now.

    1. Something the atmosphere likes to do as we head toward spring for sure. 😉

      And yes, I think the medium range guidance has the overall correct idea, but as the set of operational runs by the GFS showed yesterday, there will be some that are very different, like the run that showed basically no blocking at all in between 2 runs that showed it strongly.

      1. The spread is massive, which adds to the statements made here about being weary of any deterministic solution on an operational run for a while.

  9. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    March is going to come in like a lion. Extreme “block” over Greenland will retrograde and set the stage for several big storm chances. Super active pattern with a super active -NAO.

  10. Yeah right and I am Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the tooth fairy all rolled into one. 😀 😀 😀

    I hope is correct, but I highly doubt it.

    Time will tell. I monitor with low expectations.

    1. dont get too excited about this. Big mature storms sometimes don’t have the qpf you dream of. I could see them winding up offshore then backing in with disjointed rain or snow bands with some wind as they decay.

  12. Ryan’s tweet said “big storm chances”. Read that as what it means. I agree with him. There are chances. The storms will probably be big. That doesn’t mean they will be causing maximum impact over your head. 🙂

    1. I am not sure if his tweet means the storms are BIG or the chances of getting a storm is BIG. (The first refers to the size of the storm and the second refers to the probability of the storm.)

    1. They can but you’d need a different trough/ridge orientation. It’s far less likely to see anything that resembles a classic lakes cutter. Instead you’d get something that heads into southwestern Canada, maybe the western lakes, and a piece of energy would travel southeastward to the coast or the western Atlantic. The inside runner would be possible if the orientation of the trough was far enough west.

  15. TK – what are your thoughts for Sunday in south/central VT? Had initially been planning to go skiing but it’s looking wet/icy. How long do you think the cold air holds on there to keep precip frozen (snow/sleet) before the change to frz rain/rain?

    1. I think they are snow then sleet through the morning, then freezing rain transitioning to rain while becoming intermittent after noon.

  18. CMC, GFS and Euro all have a potent slow moving coastal storm near or south of us next weekend but the cold air it has to work with is marginal. GFS and Euro aren’t showing much for accumulation although the Euro drops two feet in upstate NY. CMC does have a rain to snow scenario in SNE that would drop 6”+

    Hardly a given that we are going to see a snowstorm next weekend but the potential is certainly there.

    1. Yea, and we know what happens with potential.

      Hey, I had the potential to be a meteorologist. Did I? Nope.
      Why? Shit happens.

        1. Well, you’re in a kind mood today.

          Yes, ultimately it’s my own fault, but there are always extenuating circumstances that get in the way. You know how it is.

          1. I’m just joking with you. Our career paths we can typically control; what the weather does we cannot. I sometimes kick myself for not going into meteorology myself, but it’s the decision I made.

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