Saturday Forecast

93 Comments

10:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
The final 5 days of February will see the end of a string of progressive low pressure systems as the final one moves through on Sunday. It will not be a major storm but will present a complex precipitation pattern as we have cold air being replaced by milder air both at the surface and aloft, at varying times – not an atypical set-up for this time of year by any stretch. Will detail it below. Behind this system will come 3 tranquil days to end the month as high pressure approaches from the west Monday, moves overhead Tuesday, then drifts off to the east Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Mid to late afternoon light rain possible mainly South Coast. Highs 50-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a brief period of very light rain possible along the South Coast. Cloudy overnight with a slight chance of light snow / sleet southern NH and northern MA and a slight chance of sleet / rain southern MA through RI and eastern CT. Lows 30-38. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow/sleet southern NH and northern MA transitioning to mostly sleet then rain by afternoon with pockets of freezing rain possible in elevated valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH, and snow/sleet accumulation of a coating to 1 1/2 inch before rain. Rain/sleet southern MA / RI / CT quickly transitioning to rain. Highs 32-38 southern NH and northern MA with coldest in elevated valleys, 38-45 southern MA / RI / CT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with areas of fog and any rain ending early. Clearing overnight. Areas of black ice. Lows 28-35. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)
March will begin with the evolution of a blocking pattern as high pressure builds in Greenland and eastern Canada and forces low pressure to its south from New England and the Mid Atlantic States into the western Atlantic. For southern New England, the evolution should result in a storm of mainly rain to start transitioning to mix/snow as it exits, this taking place during the March 1-2 time frame. After this a very broad low pressure system should result, centered well offshore, but close enough that this area is in its circulation and marginally involved in its unsettled weather during the remainder of the period, though enough dry air will be in place during this time for more “dry” than “not dry”, assuming it evolves as expected. Will continue to monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)
The same general pattern is expected, blocking, with another system doing something somewhat similar to the first one, during this period. Too soon for any details.

93 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK.

    I have to admit to smiling when Philip mentioned a snowstorm on previous blog. When did we stop using that term? I don’t think of it as defining any more than snow is a ‘coming. It evokes fun memories.

    1. Not sure I quite understand what you mean Vicki, but…

      Welcome back! 🙂

      I don’t hardly know the exact names of these tv mets nowadays. She used the word “snowstorm” verbatim for next weekend is all I know.

      1. I love the term “snowstorm” but it was totally not a good move to say it last night about next weekend. I’ve had several people already ask me about the “snowstorm” we’re getting next weekend because they saw it on the news. I’m thinking of making a recording and just pressing the button…

        1. I cannot find the context that the term was used in. I listened to the video and did not hear the term. I think context is important

      2. Thank you. I didn’t mean a whole lot 🙂

        It just struck me that it was a term mets seemed to use when I was younger, but I don’t hear it much any more. We have “fancier” names. It made me think of how excited I (and most kids) would be back in the day when we heard that simple term. It didn’t mean feet or inches….it just meant fun.

        1. Come to think of it, you maybe right Vicki. The mets usually use the term “winter storm” as opposed to “snowstorm”. I guess maybe the former is less frightening to viewers?

          1. Oddly, I don’t think fo snowstorm as frightening…just snow as opposed to rain, etc. short of like thunderstorm.

  5. Broadcasters use the term “winter storm” as opposed to “snowstorm” as the coverage, even locally, is for a wider area than it was in the days of “rabbit ears” tuning. Many times there is more than just snow involved, and even if the precipitation is all snow, sometimes you have wind and coastal flooding concerns. So the term “winter storm” is inclusive of all elements, where as the term “snowstorm” tells one “snow only”.

    1. Interesting. Even with the change that seems to make sense…..It does seem that folks are confused nowadays where there didn’t seem to be the confusion years ago. No rushing to supermarkets…no widespread panic…just another day in New England.

      1. I believe that the Blizzard of ’78 is the benchmark of all the panic which is now passed on from generation to generation.

        After all, it started the whole “bread & milk” tizzy. 😉

  6. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2018022400&fh=slideshow&r=conus&dpdt=

    This is a slideshow of the 500mb forecast from the 00z CFS run all the way to hour 768. This very long range model must be used with extreme caution as it obviously has a high degree of potential error. I’ve been studying what to look for that fires this model in the wrong direction and keeps in better shape from run to run. This particular run shows the overall pattern close to what I expect into late March. Use for GENERALIZED ideas, not specifics.

    1. So basically block break down and a more zonal pattern with higher heights in the east, lower in the West, generally.

  7. I don’t understand why some of the tv mets are already assuming next weekend is going to be an all snow event. Even NWS believes there will be precip type issues with not much if any arctic air available.

    1. I’m not so sure they believe it will be “all snow”. But we are seeing an example of something I just posted on a Facebook page that I am an admin of. I will quote myself here: I think worst thing media does these days is leave their viewers/listeners/readers with an incomplete picture of what they need to know because more importance is placed on hype and shock factor.

  8. Thanks TK !

    It’s interesting to watch the projections of the retrograding high up by Greenland. That to me, seems to have a big impact on what latitude the first upper level feature and associated surface low will get to before being directed east-southeastward somewhere along the east coast. I think all options from precip not making it this far north to the lows crossing overhead are all in play.

  9. 12Z Euro slowing looking more interesting for Next Friday and weekend.
    Still not showing much snow for Boston, but whopper amounts not far off.

    Too bad we didn’t have some serious arctic air in place for this upcoming storm.

    Still tons of time for this to evolve. Still possible Boston gets a fair amount
    of snow, even if missing out on a grad daddy event. We shall see. Of course, possible Boston comes through completely unscathed.

    1. I think the lack of deep cold is going to play a role in limiting how much (if any) snow Boston gets out of that. Long way to go though. Just an initial feeling in a general sense.

    2. What you are seeing as snow even inland is somewhat suspect on that run and I would caution buying on any snow maps. For example that foot of snow in inland SNE supposedly falls with the critical thickness levels never falling below 540, surface temps remaining above freezing, and more than half the precipitation falling during daylight hours. On the coast a lack of cold and the E/ENE wind is going to wreak havoc on accumulating snow.
      This is going to be a very intresting pattern if we can get beyond defining it solely by snowfall amounts. I think it is going to bring bountiful fascination for weather enthusiasts and yes seasoned meteorologists too.

      This set up is so anti-climo it is very much going to separate the meteorologists from the modelogists.

      1. For 2 days TV and internet forecasters, the NWS, and weather enthusiasts have been stating the ensemble forecasts are the way to go because the anomalous pattern, op runs, in particular the ECMWF should be discounted. (See this morning’s NWS BOS AFD) It will be interesting if the 20″ of snow in Bedford and 33″ in Worcester on this 12z run suddenly have all ECMWF acolytes back in line with their master now that is preaching the desired sermon.

        1. Yes indeed.

          The ECMWF snow map forecast is popping up all over the fake weather pages I am sure, accompanied by “as I have been saying for days now” followed by the replies by their blind followers that they never get it wrong and all the professionals are wrong all the time. *yawn*

  10. Not next Saturday I need dry as I have a decent debris removal job lined up & ready to go . Man the nice weather Wednesday & Thursday has people thinking spring as I’m doing 5 estimates this weekend .

    1. I don’t know why people make the same mistake every year if we get a few mild stretches in February that it’s spring. Do they not know the climate of New England? 😉

      1. You know as well is I do most people loathe winter and are ready for spring. Yes I think everyone knows it can and does often stay nasty through the first week of April or so, but it’s human nature to like sun and warm temps. Debris removal and spring cleaning make people feel better. I know it does for me.

        1. If you can get an outside job done, do it! My point isn’t whether or not people like or dislike winter. We’ve had plenty of reminders from people on both sides of the most stupid debate that can be had about weather preferences (yes, it is stupid). My issue is people seem surprised after we have a stretch of warmth and then suddenly it’s snowing and/or cold again. I don’t care if they are disappointed in it, but I don’t understand how so many are surprised by it, like it is some kind of punishment. Laughable.

      2. With the exception of debris removal estimate tomorrow the other 4 jobs Tk are estimates for the spring not now . This is the best time now for estimates for yard services because if they like the price & commit they get better placement because once April hits it is madness .

          1. Not in mid April.

            I always open it patriots day week end.
            1) I’m tired of looking at the cover
            2) if I open it mid April it’s not green. I can balance the water chemistry, get the pump going, and i have something nice to look at. If you wait till May, it can be green. It can take 1-2 weeks and a couple hundred bucks worth of Clorox to clean it up. You can also waste some decent weather if you’re waiting on the pool to clear.
            3) I have an attached spa. I can heat that up to 104 degrees pretty fast and have a soak even in April

        2. Wow! You push it hard. Somewhere in the Carolinas maybe…here Memorial Day and let’s face it consistency in summer like pattern rarely happens here much before June 15. I have always thought the pool error is SNE is the August 31 pool close. Some of our best, most consistent weather with a hint of tropical humidity comes in September.

            1. You’ve never had to shock an algae filled pool yo didn’t open till mid May either I’d guess. You know how long that takes to clean up and how much Clorox you go through? Easier to open mid April and have a nice clean pool.

            1. That must be an expensive pool season . I know what it’s like having to keep a swim spa heated 365 the meter is in overdrive like a cartoon episode

              1. It’s not that expensive. Natural gas is pretty cheap. You don’t think I use electric? Good lord that would be expensive.

                1. And I don’t keep the whole pool heated for 6 months either. I generally don’t hear the big pool up till May. The spa I can heat up from 70 to 104 pretty quick

          3. JMA ….not even in the Carolinas. The complex my inlaws lived in (a bit E of Charleston) would open the pool just for us each year when we visited for April vacation. They thought we were nuts going in the pool.

            1. If I lived in The I-95 corridor or coastal Carolina, I wouldn’t close it. I wouldn’t heat it, but I’d run the pump on low speed to keep the water moving a few hours a day, or at night when the temp got below 32. I know a lot of people who live down there and they never close them.

  14. A few observations today from my hike near World’s End (near Hingham). Ticks are out. In fact, I had one on my sweatshirt and another hiker had one on his jacket. Mosquitoes are back. Matt had already mentioned this. Other bugs have returned as well. Signs point to winter exiting with not much more than a few whimpers. I know this may be premature of me to say, but insects generally do not make their appearance known if there is significant and sustained cold ahead. Remember last year when it got to 70F in February and then we experienced one of the coldest 2-week periods in March in many decades. Insects were not around in late February last year. They are this year. The SE ridge is DOMINANT, and the cold to our north is WAY north and not even a blocking pattern will push it much further south than NNE, in my humble opinion. I think the insects sense the dominance of the SE ridge. Can we have snow? Sure, but I think SNE has more of the kitchen sink variety storms in the coming weeks with little accumulation at the coast, if any. I do not like this weather. In fact, I find it mostly depressing as it’s raining almost every day and it’s often so darn cloudy. Very different in January when the sun was out almost every day and shone all day.

    1. ^^^^ This. Couldn’t agree more.
      Except I dont mind the grey days and rain this time of year. Drives me nuts in April and May though.

    2. Bugs and peepers were certainly out, Joshua. Surprisingly, deer ticks and adult ticks can be out year round. I didn’t realize that until we explored treating our yard since the kids and the dog often had ticks. I’ve decided Sutton is the tick capital of the world……. 😉

  16. Been pouring here in CT most of the afternoon and another washout tomorrow. Miserable weekend for outdoor activities.

    Storm late next week on the 12z euro is impressive and got my attention. My Eurowx.com service did not show nearly the snow totals as some of the other maps I have seen. Only an inch or two for much of CT, RI and Boston Metro with mostly rain. The 1-2 foot totals were only in the higher elevations of Worcester and Berkshire counties. Widespread 3” QPF though so whoever stayed all snow would really cash in.

  17. 18z GFS looks a lot like the Euro for the late week storm. Heavy rain, snow and wind throughout most of New England with the heavy snow confined to the hills of Worcester and Berkshire counties, VT and NH. Two more potent coastal storms follow it the week after. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks!

  19. Now what the EURO is putting out would make me really happy. good snows across interior southern new england including my place but ski areas all over the place does good. HOPE IT HAPPENS but because I hope it happens it won’t.

  20. What has me excited is that both the operational and control show it. euro snow depth before rain issues form and starts melting snow around boston.
    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/snow-depth-in/20180303-1800z.htmll
    QPF in form of snow
    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180306-1200z.html
    in my area nearly 2 inches of water in the form of snow with another 2 inches on top of that of Ice/sleet and rain.

  21. #1 sign of spring for me is when the big box stores start having patio sets and lawn mowers on display. And it’s been spring for a couple weeks now 😉

    1. There are plenty of signs of spring in my backyard. Snowdrops all over and sprouts from the next flowers popping up as well. 🙂

  22. Astronomical high tides especially midday Thurs, Fri and Sat. They are all within a foot of flood stage, so any surge would not be good.

  23. According to Mike Waunkum, rain to snow for next weekend. I am wondering now if in order to get snow next month, systems will have to literally manufacture colder air from above especially in the coastal plain.

    Is this a reasonable assumption TK? As discussed earlier, there will be very little assistance from the Arctic itself, at least directly.

    1. Answer remains the same as yesterday. For the foreseeable future we’ll lack arctic air so snow will be in marginal or cold air from above setups.

  24. Is it still just rain tomorrow down on the south shore . And what can I expect in the morning and early afternoon as I have 4 estimates starting at 8am.

      2. From Boston to the South Shore whatever frozen precip that falls first thing in the morning will be mostly sleet as opposed to snow. Will that make much of a difference in being called in?

        Tomorrow will be basically a rainstorm. Any sleet shouldn’t be no more than an hour if that. My bet is 30 minutes worth.

  26. It’s going to be a really close call for the city as to whether or not they get a quick coating. It may happen right on the north and west side of the city but not right downtown and on the waterfront.

    Either way Boston is above freezing with just rain by the end of the morning.

  27. Good morning all! Just a couple quick notes for now as I’ll be doing the full update around or a little after 10AM.

    * On track today, mainly just rain/sleet mix to the north now with rain from here on otherwise.

    * 3 great days to end February Monday-Wednesday.

    * Ideas generally the same for the start of March. The block develops. A storm arrives and has some impact, but as you know you’re not going to get an overreaction from me and hear me start talking about astronomical snow amounts (like shown on the ECMWF) or severe coastal flooding, though I will say that with an onshore wind and fairly long fetch there will be flooding issues due to astronomical high tides. It remains to be seen how much precipitation impacts the region and in what form, but I’d lean wetter over white due to the atmosphere that will be in place. The cold air is going to be elsewhere. We’ll be in a mild to marginal atmosphere.

    * I like the idea of a slight south and southeast trend with the evolution of that first system.

    * Block stays in place so that we’ll have 2 other storm chances. Watch the windows of March 5-9 and March 12-16.

    * Pattern may break down just after we pass the mid point of the month.

    Be back in a while!

    1. Thanks, TK.

      Can you or anyone else have any idea the weather for Thurs.? Espec. the potential for any snow, ice, rain from Boston to the 495 area?

  28. As TK alluded to earlier, the Latest trend for next weekend is suppressed (euro anyway).
    We shall see.

    Btw, last night I heard Jacob Wycoff say 3 day snow storm. Really? wow!!

    Would be nice, but I don’t see that happening.

  29. Thanks, TK and Jp! Will have to drive husband to dr. in Wellesley Thurs. morning – during rush-hour. Hard enough to deal with that – would be worse if snow/ice.

  30. Thanks TK. Agree 100% with your thoughts this morning.

    Snowing at a decent clip here in Plymouth, NH. We’ll get 3-4″ of snow before a change to some sleet/freezing rain.

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