Sunday Forecast

130 Comments

10:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Low pressure is moving through the region today now producing mainly rain with any sleet mix confined to north central MA and southern NH as of 10AM with snow now generally north of Concord NH. This system will continue to make things wet and chilly for the rest of the day. It exits tonight and then we are set up for 3 nice days to end the month as high pressure approaches from the west Monday, passes by the region Tuesday, then moves away Wednesday as a front approaches form the north and low pressure develops in the Ohio Valley. This low pressure area, along with a high pressure behind the front to the north, are the surface reflections of a new weather pattern that will be underway just as we flip the calendar to March. This pattern, as previously discussed, will be a blocking pattern with upper level high pressure centered over Greenland and far eastern Canada and the forcing of low pressure areas southeastward to mainly south of New England. The first of these will be approaching on Thursday when we’ll begin to feel its impact of onshore wind and eventually rain. Forecast details…
THIS AFTERNOON: Overcast with rain and areas of fog, some sleet mixed in early north central MA and southern NH. Highs 35-42. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, strongest along the coast.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Rain ending early. Patchy drizzle until late evening. Areas of black ice possible overnight. Lows 30-35. Wind NE becoming variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day or night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. The first storm system will likely peak in impact on March 2 with wind/rain, though this may be confined to southern areas with drier weather hanging on to the north. Will have to watch to see if enough cold air gets involved for any mix/snow but early thought is this would be confined to higher elevations. Expecting the blocking to be strong enough to shunt the storm southward later March 2 through the weekend of March 3-4. This would leave the region drier with just a risk of a few rain/snow showers. A moderate to strong east to northeast wind is expected March 2 shifting more to the north into the weekend and this will result in coastal flooding issues, especially March 2, due to the combination of long fetch of onshore wind and astronomical high tides. A break between systems March 5 but the next one may be already impacting the region with a precipitation threat by March 6.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)
The same pattern remains in place with a storm likely in the vicinity for the first couple days of the period then a shift toward fair weather.

130 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. 0.21 inch so far here in JP.

    I was awakened this morning by sleet pelting the window. Didn’t last long, however.

    1. It was quick. We had about 1 hour of sleet here with a coating, then a rain/sleet mix for a short time, then just rain. The city was borderline, could have gone either way. Even short range modeling sometimes can’t quite pick up on the thickness of a cold layer in certain levels.

      1. Definitely quick. Not sure how long it was going before I woke up, but it was a matter of minutes after I awoke that it was plain rain.

  3. Thanks TK.

    I wonder how close we are to warmest February on record for this region? Somewhat quietly, we seem to have put ourselves in contention. Further south into much of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast it’s been anything but quiet where warmest February records are being blown out, in some cases by massive margins. I’d imagine we’re not too far off though. Next few days will only help.

    1. The other night Eric indicated that we appear to be heading
      for #3 all time. I suppose that could change depending upon the exact
      temperature configurations these last few days.

    2. Top 5 but not #1. The temperature departure for February might be my biggest miss on the winter forecast. I figured mild, but a smaller departure.

    1. I SNE, temps remain 40 or above at least through 9Z on 3/3. Ain’t gonna
      snow like that. (Purposeful atrocious Grammar)

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Not seeing much of any cold air filtering in to SNE. But, the models do indicate a series of spring storms – the kind that do a number on me – with raw, wind, and mostly rain. I don’t often stick a fork in winter this early, but I am this year. I’ve even turned the outdoor faucet back on.

    As I mentioned before it’s quite cold in Western Europe and will be this week. However, the models suggest the cold outbreak will not be as sustained as was a couple of days ago. In fact, in the end it could be a fairly brief – 7-10 day – cold snap.

      1. Hmmm

        He’s 33. Does this deal make sense?
        He hasn’t scored all that many goals this season.

        I just don’t know enough about it. I thought that he was a good player. I dunno

    1. Indeed they did. Spooner, Belesky, a draft pick, and a prospect. I like the trade. A lot of people will dismiss it right away because well, everyone is smarter than Sweeney, right? 😉 I trust the management in this case.

    2. Hmmm

      He’s 33. Does this deal make sense?
      He hasn’t scored all that many goals this season.

      I just don’t know enough about it. I thought that he was a good player. I dunno

      1. He hasn’t scored because he’s the only good player on the team he was on and gets zero support. He’ll do much better with the Bruins. 33 is not bad. This trade will help the Bruins.

      2. I think it’s good in the short term. This has been an amazing surprise of a season for the bruins. I knew Mcavoy was really good, but I didn’t know the other 4 or so young players had this potential.

        1. Spooner is expendable. Belesky is too. We’ll never know who that draft pick would have been so it’s moot. The prospect? Unknown. Maybe good. Maybe not. It’s not worth the “what-if”. The Bruins are a cup contender this year (pending the condition of Bergeron after getting hit in the foot). This is a good trade.

  9. Models are not giving me much hope for good snows, maybe good size storms, but not good snow. there just is not enough cold air. If we get a snow storm will be a surprise that pops up 3 days before hand.

    1. Head to the higher elevations of the Mid Atlantic. My initial feeling was things end up further south. -NAO heading for -4 maybe -5 magnitude. All it takes is -3 to shunt storms south of New England. I bet the deterministic solution on the op runs are too far north. I’m already thinking of shifting things south next update though I hinted at it in this one. I don’t think northern New England sees any precip at all from the first threat late week. Even a lot of southern New England may miss out.

  10. Is it as simple as the PNA being negative for why, even in a block, this side of the hemisphere sees the cold air disappear ?

    Also, I think the latest 12z GFS lost the pattern again for the second week of March.

    1. Yes. People see “blocking pattern” and automatically think cold. Not always, even sometimes the “cold” side is only “cool”, or seasonable.

      1. I certainly remember you pointing this out. It’s how I learned to look for that now. Your teaching of meteorology is incredible !!

  11. As a Rangers fan I don’t know if we got good players coming back. Will see how the draft pick and prospect turn out but the article in the NY Post was not high Beleskey and Spooner. You never want to have your team be sellers at the trade deadline. Hopefully after these moves are made will have a younger faster team and some players who are actually physical. The Rangers did a lot of winning prior to this season but unfortunately could not win a championship. This reminds me of the 90s Knicks.

    1. I’m on a very popular Bruins fan page on Facebook and the general consensus is that this trade was a benefit to the Bruins, weighted toward short-term success (this season and maybe next), and also did some major help for the salary cap for possibly another move prior to the deadline. I really like Don Sweeney.

  12. NWS noted that the Mid-Atlantic (DC, etc.) could get crushed next weekend and maybe beyond. Should my relatives in those areas be concerned about major snows in the coming weeks TK?

    1. They should be concerned for 1 to 3 significant storms, any of which may include snow and/or rain, along with significant wind.

  13. Tom, was it you that asked me about which line Nash should go on? I never answered. This is my answer…

    Backes, Krejci, Nash (and Young .. just kidding)

  14. Logan total snowfall to date = 35.3″

    It will be interesting if that amount ends up as the final total for 2017-18. Storms very suppressed and marginally cold air could very well put that specific total in the books. We will see.

    I would be curious as to the number of snowless Marches in Boston in the past. I hope this will not one of them though.

      1. There have not been many snowless months of March in Boston. The last one was March 1979 in which only a `trace’ fell at Logan. Notably, February 1979 was really cold, but March was not that year. I think that we’ll get more than a trace this year, but it’ll be of the unmemorable kind – mixed in with kitchen sink crapola.

    2. Now you’re saying 5-15 inches. Interesting. Previ0usly it was 5-10 inches OR
      did you just throw that in there to see if anyone was paying attention.

      FWIW, the 12Z Euro has it snowing in Boston from 12Z Friday through 12Z Sunday. However, it is so wet it accumulates a whopping 2.6 inches at Logan (according to this run and my service). Point being it is closer to the CMC
      solution and NOT the warmer GFS solution.

      And, this is NOT a suppressed solution. This is a BIG storm.

      Friday evening at 7PM showing coastal winds 40-50 and close to 50-60 mph
      with Hurricane force gusts just off shore. With astronomical high tides,
      this storm could cause really serious problems. And my experience has shown me that my Euro service is usually quite conservative with these wind estimates.

      Here is the wind and snow, Look at SNE for snow, as this shows today’s snow
      in NNE as well.

      https://imgur.com/a/2NGlG

    1. It will come back but not to the magnitude it was. I think we’ll end up with a more progressive pattern but with mean ridge SE and mean trough SW before things start to seasonally lift northward toward summer and a “non-anomalous” look to the jet stream overall.

        1. No prob. I think we are in the block for 2 weeks, then out of it. Can we return to a block later? Sure. Spring is known for them, but I think going forward we’ll see more progression and less blocking for the spring overall.

  17. “But the ECMWF has the storm a lot closer. That means we’re gonna get killed right?!”

    Not necessarily. Today’s 12z operational run has weaker blocking and a further northward low track as a result. It’s not the final solution.

      2. Technically yes, but I think the forecast is under-doing the magnitude of blocking, as well as missing the orientation of the upper pattern, resulting in the low being placed too far north.

  18. JP Dave, my 5-15 inches forecast comes from my most recent analysis of what I expect from the weather pattern for the next several weeks.

    1. Then that does represent a slight change, not to the lower end, but rather
      to the high end. So you are allowing for the possibility of a bit more snow
      for Boston. Again the possibility because the lower end was not changed.
      And, I WAS paying attention. 😀

      1. I am allowing the chance for more, yes. I can’t ignore 3 storm threats in a blocking pattern, even with marginal temps for the first one.

        And the transitional pattern that follows that will be one in which we can time cold with passing storms. There are several chances left for the area, INCLUDING the city, INCLUDING the coast.

  19. Good amount of rain down here today just a raw feel out there it sure made things fun doing 3 estimates today

  20. Hello, everyone!

    It was two years ago this (early) morning that the impressive line of convection came racing through the area between 65-80 mph. My area was under five consecutive Severe Thunderstorms Warnings!

    Sox leading the O’s, 4-1. World Series tickets on sale at 7 pm.
    Nice to see baseball again though.

    1. I remember that thunderstorm event. One of the best wintertime lightning shows I’ve seen. I was up until 5AM.

  21. Right now it looks like the second coastal storm threat next week and perhaps the one following that is going to have more cold air to work with and should provide better chances for snow in SNE. But still a long ways off.

    The 12z euro for late week is a monster. Verbatim that’s 3” of heavy rain, potential for inland and coastal flooding, wind damage and power outages. Not to mention a heavy wet pasting of snow for the higher elevations of interior central New England.

    1. Compare the 12z EPS to the GEFS to the GEPS. All different stories.
      All this tells us is the jury is not even in the deliberation room. It’s on a lunch break.

    2. Big difference between this and the snow totals from my Euro Service.
      Different algorithms, I suppose. Both maps are using the same data, but
      obviously interpreting it differently.

    1. Too early for timing and precipitation type. Watching March 1-3, focusing on night of March 1 into March 2 at least.

  25. I do not trust the EURO once so ever, would I like the amount of snow its been showing sure, I just do not believe it will have enough cold air. Thursday rains, Friday back end snow. It usually does not end up giving us alot of snow. Temperatures in the 30s, with over 1 to 2 inch of ligquid in the form of snow. showing near 3 to 4 inches of water. This will not be likely a good snow maker. Could I be dead wrong certainly, but I just do not know. The winds looks to howl for a few days….

    1. We have a few days for this to be ironed out.
      There is potential for almost anything. It could get interesting, at least
      in terms of wind. Snow? Who knows. Maybe not, but then again, we shall see.

  27. For those interested. Model break up as of right now. Mose models show it sliding in a way in which we start on the warm side and then end on the cold side. Usually not that good of a thing if its a stronger storm.
    GFS Warm, showers, highs in the 30s to mid 40s
    CMC cool, rain Blustery winds , possible tail end snow, mainly northern new england. No accumulation Boston.
    Icon, Interesting 3 point lows ( we know what that means) Mainly rain but colder. snow for higher terrain. somewhat windy.
    euro, shows the good snows for all of southern new england after it starts as rain. this would be a heavy wet snow, as temperatures will be in the 30s, even for those that are all rain.

    I do not trust anything at the moment but my gut says stick to a warmer solution because of the lack of cold air unless the storm gets its act togeather and the NAO is not as strong.

    1. I don’t feel that way at all. Once the storm is in position South of us, think
      Dynamic cooling for snow possibilities. I have seen that many times, most especially Spring and even though it is technically still Winter, for all intents and purposes, this storm is a Spring Storm.

      1. We’ll be missing some of the cold air upstairs, and even with some, we’ll be missing arctic air and entraining a whole lot of air having traveled over warm water into the developing circulation to battle cooling from above. Also if this thing ends up further south, as is very possible, you take the core of upper cold too far south, and the precipitation shield with its intensity too far south as well.

  29. 12z ICON was a decent wind/rain hit and only spits out 2 inches of snow or less in most of SNE.

  30. I am somewhat surprised that with the upcoming blocking that no cold fronts would be coming down from the north/northwest from time to time to provide fresh outbursts of arctic air then opportunities for snow when a system comes to/off our coastline…or are fronts (warm or cold) just not part of a blocking pattern?

    1. I already mentioned that not every blocking pattern puts New England into arctic air. This is going to be one of those. We have high pressure that is going to build over Greenland and eastern Canada. This block is not going to send a lobe of polar vortex southward into the eastern US. What it’s going to do is take eastward-moving disturbances, and force them south of where they’d go in an un-blocked pattern, and we have slower-passing systems. There are a number of different results that come from blocking. Last autumn we were in a blocking pattern that resulted in a long period of dry and very warm weather here.

  31. The 18z ICON is going to be a side-swipe for far southern areas and represents a very possible solution.

  32. Unfortunately, meteorologists are really up against the hype train on this coming storm. Probably worse than at any point this season. I think the snow doldrums of February really took a toll on some of the “enthusiasts” out there. Not at all directed at anyone here, but across the net there is definitely an above normal amount of largely baseless speculation on this storm. My only real concern at this point are the coastal issues.

    1. Yup. Agree. I can’t stop myself from chuckling a bit at the toll-taking thing. Perhaps there is a psychological factor similar to what happens when one is deprived of sunshine & daylight during the darker time of the year.

  33. From Bernie Rayno
    Tricky system late week. u have a strengthening upper low with is the key since there is no injection of cold. The cold comes from height falls/upward motion around low.focus is track/strength of upper low. Not a classic Nor’easter but may have that feel coastal Northeast.

    1. Which is why a track far enough south to keep the upper low core down and heavy precip south is going to mean basically no snow for this area if it pans out that way.

      1. As much as I love the decent into darkness, I always say I love the climb out as well, so I will give equal weight to my excitement for the switch to DST too. 😉 Do you remember when we used to switch the clocks a couple weeks later than we do now?

        2. Do you remember when we switched in January?

          And I love early dark and then extended light. But then I love every day.

    2. Yesterday was also the first day in a long time there were 11 or more hours of sun-up time, even though we didn’t have the sun OUT most of the day. 😉

    1. I think it’s possible a lot of the places with the most snow forecast on those maps may end up having little or no precipitation. 😉

      1. i respectively hope your wrong, like many know i would rather see people south of the pike have rain and have the snow up here points north. I want ski areas to get snow as well as my house, usually does not happen unless the storm is some what close.

        2. We know Matt what you like but let’s remember snow plow operators who are often landscapers during the warm times depend on snow south of the pike!!

            1. It’s very risky depending on something that can be quite undependable, but it’s the nature of the business. Not much different than agriculture, or anything else that depends on the weather.

            2. Then they are asking for trouble. I understand ski areas depending on snow. Fortunately, they have more advanced snow making equipment. Folks depending on it for poor man’s fertilizer are in for trouble. Just silly

  37. Right after the point was made that the late week system would not be a “classic nor’easter”, one of the TV guys goes and calls it a “classic nor’easter”. *FACEPALM*

    1. Harvey Leonard 20 minutes ago:

      “All signs pointing to a strong Nor’easter for the end of the week…Heavy Rain, Heavy Wet Snow, Powerful NE winds and Coastal Flooding are all potentially in play….it will likely begin late Thursday or Thursday Night. It will likely be a fairly slow mover. #wcvb”

      1. At least he didn’t use the word “classic”, because the evolution of the storm system, hit or miss, would be anything but.

  38. As expected, the MJO has quietly skirted across phases 8 & 1 nearly neutral, and has emerged in phase 2 and his forecast to doddle about in phase 2 to 3, still fairly weak, during the next week or so.

      1. It’s not a snow pattern in general, but it can still snow at times in those phases. Still have to take into account all other indices. See below…

  39. I posted this long outlook on a FB page I’m a member of. I shall repost it here as I think (hope) it explains my ideas thoroughly. It is edited slightly for the blog…

    Good evening everybody! Some of you in southeastern New England may recall an event on this date in 2016, in the pre-dawn hours, after a very warm day, when a strong cold front moved through the region and fired off some potent thunderstorms with frequent lightning. I remember being up through most of the night watching it with most of the action between 2:30 and 5:30AM.

    Also, today we observe the one year anniversary of the Conway & Goshen Massachusetts middle-of-the-night tornadoes. Unusual, but as we have seen, not impossible.

    Tonight I’m going to go over a little upcoming pattern forecasting. Some of you have seen my thoughts on this in previous comments but here is an attempt at condensing things going forward. There is some meteorology here so if there is something you have a question about please feel free to ask it!

    Some of you may recall a comment about the uncertainty of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). If you like snow in New England, you like to see this in phases 7, 8, and 1. Some sites online have been touting a return to phases 8 & 1 and a solid return to a really snowy pattern. However, what needs to be looked at is the strength of the MJO as well. There is a phase diagram online that shows this. The MJO got into phase 7 and hung around there for a while, but steadily declining in magnitude. When I have seen this before I remember observing the MJO skirting nearly neutral right across phases 8 and 1, almost as if it skipped them. Well, this has happened during this week, and the MJO has emerged in phase 2 and is forecast to slowly move through phase 2 into phase 3, remaining fairly weak. If all of this means nothing to you, just take one thing away form it: It’s not a phase that favors a lot of snow. But it’s not just about the MJO. Read on…

    Other indices to consider…
    * NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been positive but is about to go negative, possibly very strongly negative. The magnitude is assigned a number. When it goes negative, we often see a -1 or -2 magnitude, with stronger phases reaching -3. This particular one upcoming has the potential to reach -4, which would be considered very strong negative NAO. Automatic snowstorm? Not so fast. Yes we have had significant winter storms with strongly negative NAO but it’s dependent on the overall setup. More often than not, a strongly negative NAO shunts storms to the south of New England, more than allowing them to be direct hits.
    * PNA (Pacific / North American pattern) has been in the negative phase which is a trough western US, ridge eastern US pattern overall. That has aided in the positive temperature departure from normal. PNA is often related to the ENSO phase, often negative during a La Nina, which we are in. The PNA is forecast to remain somewhat negative despite the upcoming blocking pattern. Sometimes this can help shunt storms further south than many models will forecast, but again this is related to other factors as well.

    So how does all this tie into the upcoming weather? As always, anything over a few days away comes with its own degree of uncertainty, which increases as the time between now and the forecast time increases. Regarding the pattern upcoming, blocking begins as March arrives, and probably is good for about 2 weeks. During this time, I can see about 3 storm threats for New England, in the windows of March 1-3, March 6-9, and March 12-15. Obviously I can’t go into specifics about these threats. We can talk a little about the first one, knowing that the range of possibilities is wide, but that we’re pretty certain the storm that evolves will pass south of New England, the question being just how far, and how much impact from precipitation (coverage and type) along with the magnitude wind and coastal flooding issues. These will hopefully be adequately answered during the next few days.

    Heading toward mid March, there are some signs of a PNA which heads a little more toward neutral, and an NAO that comes out of its strongly negative phase and also heads toward neutral. This will probably lead to a rapid breakdown of the blocking pattern around or just after March 15. As always I’ll revisit this in the days to come.

    Before that, we are getting rid of today’s storm system and the upcoming 3 days will be fairly nice to end the month of February. Enjoy those!

    2. Thanks TK for posting your outlook for the next two weeks. I will try and digest this especially the dates so I don’t keep asking the same questions over and over and you responding with the same answers. Sorry about that. 🙂

      These next two weeks are going to be the most complicated this season for sure. I don’t envy you and other mets making a final call on these upcoming events.

      1. Don’t worry about it Philip. If nothing else, a rerun allows other bloggers the opportunity to see something they may have missed. I don’t mind answering the questions. And there’s always a possibility my thoughts have changed on something. It is weather, after all. 😉

  41. Good morning. Both the 0z GFS and 0z Euro look similar and have a more suppressed solution for the late week storm. Still gets here the heavy rain and wind in here Friday but it is out of here by Saturday morning. Very little snow with the system and not much precip north of the MA border.

    Also, the GFS has the 3/7 system as basically just a frontal passage now while the Euro pops a late coastal near us that gives a good dumping of snow for NH and ME. Both runs have very little snow for SNE thru 240 hours.

  42. Interesting NWS summary regarding Friday storm system.

    Leaning with a OH River Valley maturing cyclone transferring energy
    off the Delmarva Peninsula and occluding. Anticipate a sharp cutoff
    N-S of outcomes, with both strongest deep layer forcing (omega) and
    low-level NE jet winds scraping S-coastal New England. Column warm,
    potential daytime event, snows would manifest with intense precip,
    dynamical cooling, otherwise rain.     Too early to say where and if any
    amounts. MAIN CONCERN: wind, wave activity, building swell and high
    surf, during high astro-tides … COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION.
    If heaviest rain ends up lashing S-coastal New England, INLAND FLOOD
    concerns as well, especially as high astro-tides limit drainage.

    1. Also in the discussion, weighted possibility emerging storms hug closer to S New
      England than missing us altogether.

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