Quick Update / Discussion

223 Comments

4:07PM

This post is just a quick updated forecast for the Boston area, and also to provide fresh space for anybody to discuss the weather, especially Irene, as well as today’s earthquakes (Virginia & Colorado). A full discussion with my latest thoughts on Irene will be posted this evening. For now, my quick summary of it is that the storm will be brushing the Carolinas before heading for New England. Where does it enter New England? Remains to be seen, but I’m very close to agreeing with one of my colleagues who has been calling for Ocracoke NC & Falmouth MA for a few days now. Time frame for Irene’s impact on the Boston Area is Sunday-early Monday. Saturday is no longer in the time frame.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. PM showers. Rain/wind at night. Low 66. High 76.

MONDAY: Early rain, then clearing. Windy. Low 66. High 79.

223 thoughts on “Quick Update / Discussion”

  2. Tk,
    Your scenario would be similar to BOB, albeit a few more miles to the East.
    Would be devastating to the CAPE!!! No offense, but I hope you are wrong. I still fear
    a bit more Westward landfall up here is still a distinct possibility. I would think that
    a Narragansett Bay/Providence Landfall would be worst for Boston area

    1. LOL! Guess you’ll just have to enjoy them by yourself for a while. I’m actually heading mobile for about an hour at 5PM, but I’ll be around the blog most of the night…

  5. Tk,

    I will be busy for quite awhile this evening, then need to fix my computer, if I have time. most likely will be absent till AM.

    Btw, here is the 18Z NAM LOOP: (I think the loops are cool and really show the trends)

    This looks to be a near miss for NC and then probably a Cape Cod hit (Falmouth?)
    Although I still think it could be farther West.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F23%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

  8. Accu Weather’s track would be quite similar to Bob (a little more East) and inline with TK’s current thinking. I think they have it a bit too far West down around NC and a bit too far East up this way. Time will tell.

    Their path would mean the Boston area would be spared the worst of it, but the
    Cape would still get clobbered.

  9. FWIIW:

    From the NHC at 5PM:

    SEVERAL OF THE MODELS…INCLUDING THE
    GFS…ECMWF…HWRF…AND GFDL…SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
    NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
    TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
    BEHIND THE HURRICANE.

    I’m betting Landfall at or Near Narrangansett BAY in RI.

  10. OS would a hit over Falmouth cause serious damage for eastern sections of Mass? As well as the cape?

  12. John Tom and Coastal. I’d like to thank you all for your exciting welcome for my family and me to your lovely south shore. Glorious weather, an earthquake and a potential hurricane. Would it be rude of me to say thank you but you can stop now. We are feeling welcome. 🙂 🙂

      1. Thanks coastal. We really are. You are lucky to live in one of the loveliest areas in the country. Beauty. History. What more could anyone want. There’s a house a mile from here built about 20 years after the mayflower arrived It gives me goosebumps every time we drive by it

    2. Not at all. I hope you stay the two weeks. So I am 40 and trying to remember which hurricane had the most impact down here. It was Gloria. I remember the Marshfield schools were closed for a week. Bob was the one that hit second right. I am starting to think about my plan now, I just hope I do not get called into work. Could this be a history week in the making, an earthquake today and the hurricane on Sunday. I am just going to come out and say It, something tell’s me this thing hits us with a very big impact.

      1. John even if we head home Sat which we will do if it comes in as s hurricane we will return Monday God willing the damage is not bad.

  13. I would have to laugh if TS Emily missed me while I was on St. Thomas and I came home only to be hit by Irene… Sheesh. Crazy New England. You never know!

    2. One can never say new England is dull. Fortunately the surprises are not typically as dangerous as other parts of the country. Of course with tornadoes earlier this summer and an earthquake and possible hurricane ………

  14. I believe it makes landfall a bit west of Falmouth do to that strong H to our east and may even have Irene bend more North once it passes NJ, I believe it makes a 2nd landfall somewhere between New Bedford and Westerly RI, I really think it’s coming

    1. I was examining some trusted guidance and chatting with a former coworker, and I’m leaning toward an Outer Banks roll-over, a.k.a. The Cape Scrape, a slight jog west as it accelerates rapidly northward. Clips the eastern tip of Long Island and comes ashore just west of Narraganset Bay Sunday evening. This is a slightly further west and faster timing. We may end up mostly cloudy as early as Saturday, with a convergence zone and old boundary possibly being the focus for some thunderstorms (a similar situation happened the day before Bob in 1991). We’ll see how that plays out. If Irene stays largely over water, it will be Cat 3 when passing Hatteras and Cat 2 when it makes landfall in New England.

    1. Plenty of wind and storm surge damage along and east of the path of the center, storm surge being worst around the bays on the South Coast. West of the center would be the 5-10 inches of rain area.

  18. WW posted in BZ that HM is going with a more westerly track like the EURO and showing winds of 55 mph for Boston. If that ends up bring the case we will be lucky.

      2. HM did a little bit better this past winter than he usually does. At times, his forecasts have been way off the mark.

        1. Yea- I was pretty sure you guys have said in the past you were not to crazy with his forcasts. Longshot what does your gut tell you with this one.

  19. TK, getting a little confused by your comments — looking for clarification. At one point, I thought you were indicating Falmouth as Ground Zero for MA. (I fully realize that the storm could go out to sea.) Given your recent comment, are you saying the following:
    1) It would hit further inland than Falmouth.
    2) It will be here sooner than originally projected.
    3) When it arrives it will more likely be a hurricane than a tropical storm.

    Any help on these would be appreciated.

    1. After I looked at some 18z stuff AND spoke to a colleague, I did in fact shift a little west of Falmouth, and go earlier with a landfall. Under this scenario, it will arrive as a strong 1 or weak 2.

      1. Are you still thinking Sunday ? I’m figuring if we have to head home for a couple of days well leave early sat afternoon. Hopefully well return Monday around noon.

  23. Alright Tk is in the house- I have time to talk, if you had to put it all on the line right now, tell me what your best thought process is and why. What does your gut tell you.

    1. TK’s 8:33 comments, in response to my questions at 8:16, above probably says it all. Although I’ll take more info if it’s available.

    1. The comment above is as far out on the limb as I’m going right now. We’re still 5 days out from this. Too much can change yet. But being in contact with people I have worked with for years, and trust as forecasters, makes me more confident, especially when 3 of us are in very good agreement, and have had the same general idea for several days running. Neither of us ever bought Florida, and immediately had doubts about SC as well. For 2 days the gut feeling here has been Outer Banks NC and then we’d see from there.

    1. John, I lived in Lowell for hurricane Bob. We got 5 inches of rain and northeast winds to 40mph. But, far different down here. Was there bad wind damage in our area for Bob and what preps should be done around the house to minimize problems?

      1. Hi Tom- Hope you had a nice day on the cape. Tom for some reason I am drawing a blank on Bob. Gloria was the big one. If this does come on Sunday this is what I will be doing. Putting lawn chairs away, hannging plants down, move my grill off the deck, take down my flags, secure my porch swing. Any loose object would fly. If you are close to the water you know how the wind can get here, imagine that in a hurricane. Gloria closed the Marshfield schools down for a week, lots of downed trees and loss of power. Bob was not as strong. If this takes the path that gloria took we need to take cover. The one storm in Marshfield that I will never ever forget was the no name storm. Major, major destruction. Lots of homes on the water just destroyed.

        1. Ok, thanks. I think I will get started on those things you mentioned tomorrow in the nice weather…..I am ok for the ocean, I live one mile from the water. There is a salt marsh at the end of the street, but I have never seen that flood.

          1. You will if this comes. During gloria ocean was on the main roads. I believe brant rock was under water.

        2. John I remember Bob well. In addition to the fact it was my husbands bday it was our last hurricane. Like you I remember thinking it just wasn’t on the level of Gloria. In addition to the fact we are literally sitting on water, we will go home to get our house ready by doing exactly what you listed. The no name was horrible at Humarock. We came here a week later and the beach literally washed up over the entire peninsula.

          1. I remember sitting in the Meteorology Lab at Lyndon State College watching the no name storm on satellite, radar and at the time, the most up to date graphics……Because the wind field on that storm was so large and the wind was from the northeast, I’m sure the coastal damage it did was catastrophic. I’m worried about Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay for surge damage. But, I’m starting to be concerned about wind damage in the area. Of course, the only big tree I have is to my south :). 🙁

          2. Wait on heading home till we get a better idea. The no name was bad. I grew up in fieldston on ocean bluff, fieldston beach was up behind are house. I would go home and change to dry clothes. Head back out shortly after go up 8th rd and a house that was just there was gone and this repeated itself. The next day they were going down foster ave in snow plows cleaning everything up.

  26. Btw….the 8pm advisory says that the min pressure found in the hurricane by the hurricane hunters is 969 mb, which is down several mb in the last few hours. In the most recent puctures, the eye looks pretty clear.

      2. YIKES is right! Sometimes I have to get up at 3:00 am but so far never had be at work at that particular time. 🙂

  27. Based on TK’s new information, I would say that Irene will likely pass somewhere between Boston and Plymouth (closer to Plymouth)…still 5 days out of course.

    As for today’s earthquake, I was at home all day and didn’t feel a thing yet it was felt all over downtown Boston. A number of years ago there was an earthquake in upstate N.Y. (near the Vermont border IIRC) and I felt that one here in Boston. I was in bed early one Saturday morning listening to the radio and felt my bed rumbling. The talk show host on WRKO AM came back from commercial and mentioned that he felt the earth move.

    1. My concern is a turn back a little more north, and despite the landfall, the center may stay west of Boston, under this scenario.

  29. TK, I voted for you once again on the link above. I am surprised though that voting more than once on same computer is allowed. Good luck! 🙂

  30. JUST FOR FUN (for now): Irene tracks thru the Bahamas with varying intensity, turns north a little sooner than expected and then rapidly strengthens to CAT 3, skirts the Outer Banks of NC late Saturday and does not accelerate at a climatological rate at first, and tracks northward just off the Delmarva Coast, then turns slightly NNE and begins an acceleration once it gets to the latitude of NJ (probably to get away from NJ as fast as possible, J/K!!!). Center crosses eastern Long Island near Montauk and makes landfall between Stonington CT and Weekapaug RI between 4PM and 8PM Sunday as borderline CAT 1 / CAT 2. Center passes between Worcester and Boston and is accelerating so quickly (also undergoing extratropical transition), that the stars will be shining in Boston between fast-moving passing clouds with a NW wind behind the storm by midnight Sunday night.

  32. Brought up by Matt Noyes, avg track error within 5 days out is 250 miles, something to think about.
    Water vapor now shows a visible eye wall.

    1. Gotta go with climo this far out, 3-6 inches+ west of the center, less than 3 inches east of it. This is for the storm itself. Amounts may be higher if we set up a tropical conduit late Saturday into Sunday.

      2. Got it. Thanks for the info tonight. Maybe time to stock up on flashlights and batteries. I can’t begin to imagine what the food runs will be like at the supermarkets.

  35. NHC @ 11:00 pm has Irene over or just southeast of N.Y.C. at 8:00 pm Sunday!

    Assuming the track verifies, Irene would most certainly pass west of Boston and eastern SNE.

  36. I’m hearing rumors that Irene is undergoing rapid intensification, with winds 5000 feet above the surface up to 115MPH found by a hurricane recon plane just moments ago.

  37. Before I shut down my computer and get ready for bed, I just want to say that today was yet another “Top-10” day with nice blue skies, a few clouds but most importantly LOW humidity. Unfortunately, humidity begins to rise again tomorrow getting worse each day reaching its peak Sunday when Irene arrives hopefully lowering late Monday after Irene passes leaving behind minimal damage but probably unrealistic assuming track verifies…Thanks again TK as always!

  38. This is not a boring week of weather for sure. Two things to track Irene and the possiblity of thunderstorms on Thursday and some of those could be on the strong to possibly severe side on Thursday. Best shot for a strong or severe storm is in interior but of course that could change.

    1. Hi Hadi- how do the models look this morning, are we still on track for a hit.
      At work will check back later.

  43. Good write up from NWS…

    HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND TO
    SOME DEGREE…BUT ITS TRACK AND AFFECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WE ARE
    STILL MORE THAN 96 HOURS AWAY FROM A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT FROM
    IRENE. THINK ABOUT ALL THE NOREASTERS OVER THE WINTER AND THE
    UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND IMPACTS EVEN INSIDE 60 HOURS. THE
    POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HEAVY RAIN/SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER
    FLOODING…ALONG WITH STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A STORM SURGE
    RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE
    EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IRENE WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

    THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THE MODELS IN TWO GENERAL CAMPS.
    THE FIRST GROUP IS CLUSTERED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO CT…WHILE
    THE SECOND GROUP IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS. THEN
    THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS THAT ARE EVEN FURTHER WEST AND/OR EAST OF
    THE TWO MAIN GROUPS. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN EASTWARD
    SHIFT AMONGST THE 00Z GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND
    CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR IF ITS JUST A MODEL
    ADJUSTMENT.

    THE SPREAD CONTINUES TO POINT TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EXACTLY IRENE
    WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS BEHAVING
    AS A CLASSIC TROPICAL SYSTEM IN OUR REGION. THAT MEANS THE GREATEST
    POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN/SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER FLOODING
    WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK…WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
    STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST STORM SURGE/COASTAL FLOODING TO THE EAST
    OF THE CENTER. NOW JUST BECAUSE YOU END UP TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK
    DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOUR OUT OF THE WOODS FOR SOME COASTAL
    FLOODING…THE ISSUES WOULD JUST BE WORST TO THE EAST OF THE
    CENTER. ESPECIALLY SINCE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WERE GOING
    TO SEE VERY HIGH SEAS AND SWELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

    THE BOTTOM LINE IS IRENE WILL IMPACT IN SOMEWAY ACROSS THE REGION.
    HOWEVER…CONDITIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WORST IF A TRACK FURTHER
    WEST VERIFIES WITH LESSER IMPACTS IF THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS VERIFY
    EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING. THERE IS EVEN A
    LOW PROBABILITY THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE EAST WOULD CONFINE
    THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

    AS MENTIONED EARLIER…THE 00Z GUIDANCE DID MAKE AN EASTWARD SHIFT
    SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR WAS JUST AN
    ADJUSTMENT.

    FORECAST DETAILS THIS WEEKEND…
    REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK…IT DOES APPEAR THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR
    A PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT SOMETIME SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
    SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF
    IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL

  44. NWS just confirmed a tornado in Canaan NH last weekend

    Ch 7 pointed out that with every update Irene is shifting east. Let’s hope it keeps shifting……a lot.

  45. Looking forward to the 12z runs. Wonder at what point the very slow eastward model trend to the projected path stops. Stopping today and stopping in 2 or 3 days is huge.

  47. Someone brought this up earlier but I am wondering about the track shifting similar to the snow storms we experienced in the winter. If I remember correctly they all would show us getting a big snowstorm. Then the track shifted further east three days out giving us less of a storm only to have them shift back west within 36 hours and we get nailed, so to speak. I understand there are different forces at play here when comparing Tropical Systems (Warm Core) and Winter Storms (Cold Core) but it makes me wonder. I also remember last years brush with the tropical storm that was suppose to hit us but it went further east. The only two people that predicted that was TK and BB.

    So regardless, today is the last day of my wife’s summer vacation. She will be going to the store this morning to grab milk and water. If the forecast track holds we will go back for food tonight or tomorrow. Another thing I think the general public should be aware of is the rain the is expected Saturday. I think many people figure they would prepare Saturday for this storm. If we get those heavy rains ahead of the storm then it would make it that much harder to prepare for.

    If this was 18 months ago I would be so excited for this storm but now, having two children under two, in a small house surrounded by tree’s in Hanover, I am rather worried.

    Gloria is what started my fascination with weather. I was living in Braintree with my family at that time. It was kind of cool to see all the neighbors out on the street cleaning up, talking and helping one another out. Just like you see after snow storms.

  48. Hi All-Won’t be able to get back into any regular posting until September. I miss this place..

    Any way its not suddenly shifting east. Its been headed east for a while and the models continue to play catch up. This thing 72 hours ago this was destined for Florida. The eastward modeling is going to continue. Right Front quadrant with heaviest winds, storm surge, etc. will be out to sea. I feel reasonably confident in predicting that. Western side of the storm closer to SNE, but I am thinking this is more of a big rain storm for where most people live, than a true hit from a hurricane, especially for areas west of the elbow on the cape and Nantucket. Which will be closet to the right front quadrant. Also models are too fast in bringing in pre-rains. Think of this as awinter-storm. We have cool Canadian high pressure over us. How often does that slow down the northward progression of precip? How often does it take longer for the column to moisten than modeled? Also what happens with a storm with this scenario in the winter? Further east, as High Pressure blocks a more south to north progression. Just some food for thought-but I am more comfortable with the more extreme eastern solutions at this time.

  51. Let’s see, earthquake, potential hurricane, (hopefully nothing bad tomorrow w/approaching front) all in about 1 week – 2012 a little early? 🙂 Just kidding!

    I didn’t feel earthquake yesterday – maybe because I was at ground level. I have felt earthquakes in the past (especially from one some yrs. ago up in Quebec or VT and we lived on the top floor of an apt.) It was a strange sensation – sense of movement and shaking w/a little rumbling.

    As far as Irene is concerned, I won’t make any guesses yet. I like to look at satellite loops but it’s too early for me to guess on that yet. I don’t have the knowledge or experience to guess this early. I just hope that if she hits we get no/minimal damage – or, preferably, she goes out to sea – ‘though I don’t see that happening.

  52. TK – I didn’t know you could vote more than once. I voted for you again.

    And thanks for your updates.

  53. Here is the best line form the NHC……

    USERS ARE REMINDED THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
    FORECASTS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
    EXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

  54. 06Z GFS has Irene making landfall around Narragansett Bay in Ri at 964 MB.
    Currently or this AM anyway, Irene was at 962MB and 110 MPH. Again, I don’t
    know if the wind speed will translate with the pressure this far North, But it looks like
    it could strike with top winds near 110 Mph with gusts up to say 130 or so.

    IF that were to verify, we will be looking at some areas out of power for weeks.

    I purchased a bunch of new flash lights this AM.

    Will probably hit the supermarket tonight for a Bleepload of non-perishables.

    Time to prepare!!

    I know, I know, there has been a slow Eastward shift with each model run.
    However, was watching the discussion at the Weather Channel and their experts
    indicated the DISTINCT possibility of a sudden WESTWARD shift as it approached
    New England.

    I sincerely HOPE that it continues with the Eastward trend and it becomes a FISH storm as it passes harmlessly or almost harmlessly by New England.

    2. I don’t like the look of this either. Like Vicki, I like to see what’s coming. If this scenerio comes true – it will be a sleepless night. And what’s worse – if the lights go out, I won’t be able to see tv or use my computer. I have a battery radio but I don’t think one gets much weather info. w/that and you don’t get the graphics, etc.

  60. Sometimes these models will trend to far in one direction — eastward and then seem to compensate by shifting back to the west. Personally I would prefer the OTS for the fish path, but I am not so sure that will happen.

  61. From Accu Weather:

    Providence, R.I.

    The eye wall of Irene may pass close by later Sunday into Sunday night. Periods of flooding rain and damaging hurricane-force winds are possible. If the center passes to the southeast, coastal flooding will be minimal. If the center passes to the west, major coastal flooding problems may occur.

    Boston, Mass.

    The eye wall of Irene may pass close by late Sunday and Sunday night. Periods of flooding rain, damaging hurricane-force winds and major coastal flooding are possible.

  62. Irene now a major hurrciane with winds of 115 mph. The pressure’s are falling and I think this could peak at high end category 3.
    Old Salty that GFDL model is one of the more reliable hurricane models.

  63. Just to go off topic here but there is a chance for thunderstorms tomorrow. I am going to go with a 2 since there could be a few severe storms but this front coming through does not look impressive to me. So keep an eye to those skies tomorrow and if they look threatening head indoors.

  64. JJ,
    I still think that reaching Cat 4 is not out of the question. We shall see.
    Either way, this will be a serious storm. Still hoping that it shifts out to sea
    or at least stays just off shore and gives us just a good ole N’easter.

  65. Old Salty I am hoping the shift to the east continues but to me these tropical systems as I often say have minds of their own so will see what happens. I would like to see these hurricane models start to shift eastward because as I said earlier the GFDL link that you posted is a reliable model and should not be ignored.

  66. Does anyone remember what the reason was that Earl shifted unexpectedly out to sea last year this time?

  67. JJ,

    Thank you. Time will tell. My Gut is telling me that we are in for it.
    Hope I am WRONG!!!!

    Not even NHC is totally banking on the GFDL as they have used a blend of models to come up with their current track. We’re coming down the home stretch. I think as this thing winds up, the models will get a better handle on what will happen.

    Time will tell.

    TIME TO PREPARE.

  70. You could really see the eye showing up nicely on both visible and infered satellite. Back on Monday Irene had 100 mph winds and there was no showing.
    Coastal I believe late morning early afternoon with the GFS.

  72. This is what you got to look for when tracking these tropical systems because little wiggles to the left or right could make a big difference on the kind of impacts an area will get. A new track will becoming out with 11AM advisory.

  73. Rain,

    Thanks for posting!

    WOW! That baby takes a LEFT hand turn there! No doubt about it.
    “Could be” just a temporary jog in it’s path. “Could be” MOTHER nature
    FOOLING us all once again. We shall see.

  75. With such an eastward trend, wouldn’t be interesting if Irene ends up passing right over the 40/70 “sweet spot” for snowstorms? From the spaghetti charts I have looked at this morning (other than a couple of outliers) I haven’t seen any more tracks west of Boston. They all cluster from near Plymouth to the Cape and a couple just offshore. Could we get the final call on Irene sometime tomorrow?

    1. Thanks, Old Salty – wow. That’s a nice image loop – in color. And I see what you mean – the storm moves all over the place.

  77. Please forgive mistakes, I just got an eye exam and my eyes are temporarily blurry. 🙂

    I just saw TWC’s national hurricane thinking Cat 4 by tonight. I agree….outflow on the west side, which was not good yesterday, looks very good this morning. Outflow is now good in all quadrants and eye is starting to get the “Stadium Effect” appearance, as well as being symmetrically centered in the central dense overcast…. I see pressure is down to 956mb and I wonder if this is headed for explosive development later today down towards the high 920s or low 930s with further sustained wind increases.

      1. Hi Longshot,

        Yes…..it will be interesting to watch. By satellite presentation, I think the next reported pressure will be lower than 956 mb.

    2. You are braver than me! 🙂 I had mine done yesterday and then just stayed home and didn’t put on computer or tv ’til this morning! My eyes weren’t that bad but I had sinus headache – I have lousy allergies.

  78. JJ,
    You forgot this from the NHC:

    THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE
    WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
    CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
    FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
    CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    Note: CATEGORY 4 !!!!!

    Btw, their latest track has Irene In the MIDDLE OF MAINE on Monday AM
    STILL as a Hurricane. I find that to be truly amazing! What will we get as it
    treks on through here????? NOT GOOD, that’s for sure.

    OUT TO SEA! OUT TO SEA! Well I can try, can’t I?

  79. I hope there arent too many people on that little island that the eye is about to go over and if there are people, I wonder what the highest elevation on the island is.

  80. Thanks for posting that Old Salty and wow I don’t remember the last time I have seen a tropical system make up it all the way to the middle of Maine as a category 1 hurricane.
    If anyone has a boat I would be securing it as a precaution along with making sure to have flashlights, batteries, fully charged cell phone just in case the power is out for an extended period of time.

  81. JJ,

    Amen to that!

    From NHC:

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 24/1500Z 22.4N 73.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
    12H 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
    24H 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
    36H 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
    48H 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
    72H 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
    96H 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
    120H 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND

    That would put top winds here somewhere in the order of 90-100 mph, with gusts to what? Say 120 mph or so? For this area, that is a serious storm to say the least.

    Does that seem reasonable?

    Sure looks like the NHC expects this beast to hold together pretty well on its trip North.

  82. I still am reading what JMA had to say earlier:) He seemed pretty confident that it would move further east.

    If not then I think we are in for it!

  83. I would say that is reasonable you could get gusts up to category strength which is 111mph or greater. Another thing to mention and I don’t want to sound like an alarmist here but I thing these things should be taken into consideration. If it makes landfall to the right of that is where you could get some isolated tornadoes.

  84. After watching Henry Margusity’s video, that eastward trend might not hold up much longer after all. I was really hoping that we would end up getting just brushed by Irene (relatively speaking)…wishful thinking on my part. We will see eventually.

    1. 1938 would never be recreated for many reason. For one, we have been discussing this system for 7 or 10 days now, we have too much lead time now a days. Secondly I believe the 1938 Hurricane was traveling at 70 mph.

  86. Looking at the spaggetti plots the GFDL goes through the Hudson River Valley, a few go through CT, a few head for Rhode Island, and a few go out to sea.

  87. JJ,

    Re: Tornados

    Yes, we should NOT lose sight of that. Pete Bouchard mentioned that on his 11PM
    broadcast last night. It is typically in the 2 right quadrants. As I said yesterday,
    Have not seen much activity with the More Northern Strikes of hurricanes.
    Did see a watch with one system as I recall. If it tracks just West of us, you are
    right. That could be an added danger. Let’s hope not.

  88. There usually weak tornadoes should they happen EF0 EF 2 and there rain wrapped. Although I have seen occassions where tornado warnings have happened to the left of where the center made landfall.

  91. Coastal,

    True, we have the ability to be prepared, that is for certain.
    And you are correct, the 38 storm rocketed through here, however,
    I think they are concerned about similar damage. That would be saying something!
    This is a large system capable of laying down a large damage path.

    1. The loss of life would be different from 1938 because of awareness. I would also think structural damage would not be as great due to new building codes that have been developed over the past 73 years.

  92. I wonder what the repair time would be to get power back on and to get back to normal functioning (people go to work, school, etc) if our area takes a direct hit from a strong Cat 2. (This is not a forecast……just a topic for discussion)

  95. Tom,

    In the Cities, I’d say a matter of a day or 2. In outlaying areas, could be at least a week, perhaps longer. I remember still seeing crews on the Cape a week after Bob.

    This is potentially a really really serious situation, no kidding around here at all.

    AND, I do not believe that any of this is HYPE either.

  97. We were down in North Truro and P-Town yesterday and I can say that the Cape is very busy. Many hotels/motels had no vacancies on them, the beach parking lots were full, there are lots of people on the Cape.

  98. Hi all. Have a new discussion saved but could not send due to a computer crash at 2AM. Mobile now so will modify and send new one by 3PM!

    1. thanks…I really enjoy when you and others post links and I am trying to teach myself how to do it. Think I may have figured it out.

    1. OH MY…..right over Boston or the south shore…..Carl Parker just ran it also on TWC and it was right over the Boston area. He also pointed out that the water temps are 3 to 4F above normal south of us.

  103. Btw, That run indicated a pressure of 988mb.

    hmmm…. my guess that would translate to winds of say 80-85mph?

    Does that Sound reasonable?

    Thoughts?

    Of course that is not the only model and doesn’t mean it is correct either.

  104. So maybe we should post some thoughts on Hurricane Preparations.

    Remove all lose items from your yard, ensure your gutters are cleaned. Batteries, Water….

    Does anyone have anything else to add?

  105. All I can say is wow if this happens!!
    Also remember the winds are sustained of 80-90 with potential higher gusts.

    1. and then on the right side of the storm track, you have to add in the forward speed of movement to the winds.

      1. Correct Tom…If this really does verify as a lot of the models are showing then this will be a very serious situation.

  106. TOM,

    YIKES. YOU ARE CORRECT. That is 966mb!!!!!!

    That would equate to 100-110 MPH sustained winds!!!!!

    I DON’T LIKE THE LOOKS OF THIS!

    2. Yes…not good !!……For the first summer in many, my lawn is still growing in late August with the rain we’ve had. This makes me think that trees would be susceptible to falling easier due to wetter grounds.

  107. Clean Gutters: Check done last week
    Pick up Flash lights: Check
    Pick Up Batteries: Check
    Put lawn furniture away: Saturday (can wait till last minute on this)
    Pick Up Non-Perishables: Tonight
    suggestions: bread, peanut butter,Soups, Rice (Progresso Chunky chicken over rice isn’t bad) assorted snacks, Dinty Moore Beef and Chicken stew. Spagetti or elbows with your choice of sauce. Sure helps to have a GAS stove!
    Pick Up 3 or 4 bags of ice to put in freezer for now for use in cooler when
    power goes out. Tonight

    Ah, that’s what comes off the top of my head. Sure I am missing something.

    I’m sure others will have good ideas.

    Oh here is one from the Weather channel. Re-fill prescriptions, if needed.

  110. re: Trees and Rain

    IF the plume of moisture comes up ahead of the storm before the big winds
    and saturates the ground, the trees are more susecptible to being UPROOTED!

    This could be a concern. One of the mets on TWC last evening was saying how trees
    in New England are NOT built to withstand hurricane force winds. Look what we get
    with Thunderstorms that produce 60 mph winds? Tons of damage.

    I can envision power outages the likes of which we have never seen in our lifetimes!

  111. Yesterday’s local newscasts were understandably dominated by the earthquake, but I’d think Irene gathers top billing tonight.

  113. Charlie,

    I agree. I have been saying for 2 days, that it would come onshore around
    Narragansetts Bay in RI and move up over Providence and then towards Boston.
    Absolutely a worse case scenario for this area.

  114. So I live in a ranch (first floor and basement) in Hanover with my wife, daughter (17 months), son (2 months) and our black lab “Casey”. Her parents live in Framingham down the hill from the College. Our house in Hanover is surrounded by tree’s on all sides, but one side has a hill so the tree’s are within 20′ of the house that are 10′ higher. I think I will decide to either keep them out our house or have them stay at her parents house depending on the track of the storm. If Framingham is on the west side and Hanover on the east side of the track, then they will be going there.

  116. Coastal,

    Sounds reasonable, the only problem is knowing soon enough.

    Btw, re: trees
    My experience has shown that OLDER trees are actually MORE likely to come down than younger ones. Not exactly sure why. Some guesses: The younger ones are more supple and can go with the flow more, while the older ones are more brittle and can break. Plus the older ones have more chance for disease and thus are more likley to break or topple over.

    I’d factor that into your decision.

  121. Sorry to get off topic here but I think this should be passed along. The storm prediction center has a good chunk of SNE now in a slight risk for severe weather.
    I have not changed the thunderstorm index which still remains where it did yesterday at a 2 which means there is a threat for some severe weather.

  123. JJ,

    Absolutely. Just what we need. Some Sever T-storsm to set us up for the main event.
    Probably get a tornado tomorrow while we’re at it.

  124. I would say right now for any thunderstorm develops the main items are heavy rain, vivid ligthning, and strong winds. This has nothing to do with Irene.

  127. TK someone is looking for your thoughts on the BZ blog, I did tell them what you were thinking but did say you probably would write something over there. BTW hope you ok that I wrote what you were thinking:) albeit very brief

  128. Coastal,

    Are you asking what the winds would be at 956MB or 952MB?

    Currently Irene is at 954MB with top winds of 120 MPH. So it would be somewhere
    in that neighborhood, probably a bit less.

  129. Coastal,

    So Sorry. Wow! I didn’t even realize those numbers were there.
    Not sure what the colors mean. But what I noticed, down on the right hand lower
    corner, were 2 numbers:

    Minumum Pressure: 941.354MB
    Maximum Sustained Winds: 68.6 Knots or (68.6 * 1.2)=82.32 mph.

    I thought that the winds up here would be less with same pressures, but not that
    much less!

  130. Again, Carl Parker just ran the 12z GFS and used the word devastating many times……

    I was trying to research Hurricane Earl and the hurricane models success/failure, but only found one site. I guess I was looking for what models did well and what didnt so that I could have some idea of which one to give more faith to.

    1. Interesting how much it drops the pressure between 24 and 36 hrs. Also, I agree that there are discrepancies, however, I think the EURO and the GFS are starting to show some run to run consistency for their particular track.

  132. I do remember TK and some others saying that the EURO is not good at all with Hurricane type storm. Not sure what impact that is playing into this. But to me no way this thing ends up in central VT.

  133. The EURO just doesn’t seem to make sense to me with the ridge in place in the Midwest unless its breaking it down much quicker then most think. I would not put much stock into it right now, if anything Irene should move east rather then west.

  134. HAdi,

    I agree on the Euro not making sense, but I believe it was the NAM that TK said was useless with Hurricanes. I thought I heard TWC Mets discussing how Good a handle the Euro had on the atmosphere and that it was quite reliable.

    So now we are looking at:
    Just East of NYC.
    Middle CT.
    Eastern CT.
    RI

    I think that there is a HINT in there that this thing may past to the West of Boston.

  135. I will visit the WBZ blog today.

    I have just posted a new blog update here. Please go there and start the chatter anew. 🙂

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