Tuesday Forecast

205 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Some very nice late February weather today into Wednesday as high pressure dominates today then retreats to the east Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the north. Continuing to watch the coming evolution of a blocking pattern and the first storm threat during this pattern. As is typically the case, there remains some varied solutions on the different computer guidance, but the overall idea remains the same for now. The greatest early concern is the coastal flooding threat due to a long fetch of onshore wind. Looking for largely a rain event arriving late Thursday or Thursday night that may end as snow for at least parts of the region Friday before the storm’s precipitation gets pushed to the south. The precipitation type will depend on the exact temperature profile in the atmosphere which will be marginal, as well as the intensity of the precipitation. If the storm is too far to the south you lack heavier precipitation and colder air aloft to be dragged toward the surface. So it will be a fine line. Looking for the system to be far enough south by Saturday that we are largely dry here with just continued gusty wind and a possible rain/snow shower.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light W to SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 South Coast, 55-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-41. Wind SW 5-10 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or mixed rain/snow showers during the day. Rain arriving southwest to northeast at night. Highs 40-47. Wind NE to E increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain likely, possibly ending a mix/snow, then breaking clouds northern and western areas. Temperatures cool 40s to 30s. Windy.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain/snow shower. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. Breezy but mainly dry weather with low pressure far offshore and high pressure to the north March 4-5. Next low pressure system approaches March 6 and evolves into a rain and/or snow producer March 7-8. This system may have colder air to work with so something to watch closely.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)
The same pattern remains in place. Storm system departs to start the period then another one threatens later in the period, favoring March 12-13.

205 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

        1. Actually, I just remembered an alternative ending is third is the one with the treasure chest. But I’m not third in any event.

  4. Good morning. It felt like a Beach day walking in from the parking lot.
    Another beauty for sure. I want to be lulled into Spring, but alas! It is New England after all and Spring NEVER begins on February 27th.

    Interesting solutions for Thursday night/Friday. Most interesting to say the least.
    Will be watching the 12Z Euro closer for changes IF any at all.

    Not sure it was mentioned, but the 0Z Euro has quite a snowstorm for the region on
    March 7th.

    If one knows anything about the topography of SNE, one can readily see that this
    next event is also an elevation event.

    https://imgur.com/a/JLv1r

      1. Odds currently favor light to possibly moderate amounts of rain.

        There is a low probability of very light to nil amounts.

        Lower still probability of moderate to heavy precip amounts.

        Will feel better about these probabilities by later tomorrow.

  7. I do feel like there has been one change over the last 24 to 48 hrs in the models ….

    They still all have the Greenland 500 mb high (block), but I feel as though they aren’t retrograding that high as far west and southwest as they were before. 48 hrs ago, I was under the impression the high was going to retrograde southwestward into eastern Canada. Now, not so much. Depending on the model, the high seems to stay up by Greenland longer.

      2. And, I theorize the Greenland block hanging further north also allows the central us ridge to amplify more and thus, it helps kick the upper level feature to our south more due east.

  8. 12ZNAM Surface (best it does)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2018022712&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=075

    Bit later

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2018022712&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    12Z NAM snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022712&time=PER&var=ASNOW&hour=084

    6Z NAM snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022706&time=PER&var=ASNOW&hour=084

    Hmmm, That is what heck of a difference. I’d say the NAM finally received the memo
    from the Euro and made appropriate adjustments. 😀 😀 😀

        1. I like these loops as they so graphically display what
          is going on. Now we see what the GFS has to say.

          I presume it too received the memo.

  10. Thanks TK.

    Meteorology > Models. I still wouldn’t rule out an even further south scenario where most of the precip misses SNE. But definitely not the amped up ICON/6z GFS solutions.

    1. ICON > Meteorology > models 🙂

      In all seriousness, I don’t agree with “definitely not” on the amped up solutions. It is very much within the range of possibilities. Not saying it is going to happen but is certainly plausible. You only need a slightly weaker -NAO and block to bring this thing closer and that’s what some of these models are picking up on, whether it be right or wrong.

      1. GFS continues to be completely clueless. From southeast shunt at 0z last night to direct hit at 6z today to way north and snowing in Canada at 12z.

        Toss it!

  12. 12z ICON still north and a major hit.

    Drops 4.5″ QPF on Boston – 4″ of heavy rain, then 6″ of heavy wet snow. 50-60 mph winds on the coast

  13. YIKES! What is going on???
    Clearly some models are not reading the tea leaves properly.

    I’ll bet anything that the EURO is still suppressed. IF that comes North, then
    I will be speechless. (not really as I’ll have plenty to say)

  16. And the CMC had this thing ending up south of Bermuda on the 0z run.

    2.5 days out and still tremendous model/ensemble spread. Tis the challenge of trying to make a forecast in a blocking pattern like this. I don’t envy any mets in SNE right now.

    1. 2.5 inches for Boston. And that thermal profile is extremely marginal
      and even though the model depicts rain, it could go either way.

      Dying to see the Euro.

  18. It’s interesting/strange …..

    I have spent some time comparing the 500mb features of both the 00z and 12z GFS op runs and darn if I can see a noticeable difference in anything that would explain the difference in the surface feature track.

    Heights and placement of 500 mb lows and highs are fairly similar. Perhaps it’s that weakness just north of the western Great Lakes ?

    Because I don’t see big changes at 500mb, I continue to be skeptical of this solution and continue to believe in a more southerly track.

    1. Did you take a look at the 200mb features?

      Comparing 6Z with 12Z, the 6Z was a little bit flatter taking the system
      more South whereas the 12Z runs is a little more amplified allowing the system
      to come farther North.

    2. And the amusing thing is those vast differences may very well have been triggered by very small changes or errors in model initialization.

  20. From Bernie Rayno
    I will have a video later today ( in some form) on Friday. My main focus will be the upper low, track an intensity. North of the upper low (especially if it intensifies) there will be wet snow; models will be too warm with its boundary layer temp forecast

  21. I think we can all agree no matter what happens it will be very interesting to see how this all plays out and it will be good grist for the future forecasting mills.

  22. I’ll be interested in seeing the wave action this thing could produce along with the wind gusts from this system should this system track close enough for a direct impact.

  26. Mark or JPDave I’ll let you guys post but looking at 12z EURO snow map on twitter and taking this with HUGE of salt looks like my part of CT and the Hudson River Valley of NY get a nice accumulating snow.

    1. If you can post it, please go ahead and post it. We aren’t the only ones
      allowed to post maps. 😀 😀 😀

      IF you cannot post, I’d be happy to do so. Thanks

  27. I would post but I don’t trust it since its a non met posting.
    I will post this from a meteorologist John Homenuk for 12z EURO for Friday. This looks like how snowicane 2010 looked where most of SNE was rain but far western parts of SNE near NY boarder its snowing. One of the weirdest storms I remember where Boston was getting heavy rain NYC was getting accumulating snow.
    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/968550155715825665

  29. Do you agree with the snow 12z EURO is showing for western CT and the Hudson River Valley of NY down into NYC and NJ?

    1. No.

      2 reasons :

      EURO snowfall projections are usually way over inflated.

      Marginal air mass. IF heavier precip can get that far north, then I’d think it will be elevation dependent.

  30. You all looking for big snow out of this are going to be sorely disappointed….I think

    Mostly rain and some wind.
    But seems like your having fun anyway. Thats what counts i guess. 🙂

    1. I’ve explained how difficult it is to get a decent snow out of this set-up, unless it tracks close enough for heavy precip, close enough to put the upper far enough north for coldest air, but not so close that we warm the lower atmosphere too much. Too marginal. I think this is just a fun game since there is so much model disagreement, a bit more than “average.

      I do, however, think a lot of the area sees some snow next week with threat #2.

  33. There are so many solutions on the table right now for an event 2.5 days out that it’s mind boggling. Interested to see the EPS in a bit.

    1. I’m with you Mark.

      In addition to the EPS you mentioned, I am wondering IF the NAM
      has an about face or stays the course.

  34. I really don’t care what it does Thurs/Friday as I am simply fascinated by the evolution of this and the myriad model solutions. It’s almost comical.

    Someone with whom we are familiar always says: “It is what it is”.
    Well in a corollary, The Weather will do what it does.

    2. Sorry Mark, link did not work, at least for me.

      I was looking at the UKMET. It has 850mb temps above freezing for most
      of the run, perhaps below at the very end.

      1. Crap, this happens when I try to post from my phone. If you are able to copy the whole link into your browser, it will work

  36. 12z EPS north of operational and stronger. Not too surprising with the number of members that have been consistently north of the op the past several runs.

  37. This tweet from Ryan Hanrahan says it all
    This is crazy. A remarkable difference between the GFS and Euro ensembles. Bottom line is we still don’t know what this Friday storm is going to do.

    2. Love it.

      If you want Spring, then it will be a crap load of snow.
      If you want snow, it will either be a rainorama or a complete swing and a miss.

  38. Not at all saying it would be right, but if you believe, as I do, that the SREF can often “predict” the NAM, the 18z NAM should come back north. In other words, don’t be surprised if that happens, and don’t read too much into it.

      1. However, SREF not so bullish on thermal profile. Even with
        that position has mostly rain, at least for the coastal plain.

  41. Looks to me like a late March – mid April spring storm to me. Cold rain in Boston with some significant wind to go along with it. Can’t say that ever thrills me. Interior, higher elevations might get some heavy, wet snow, but not really the kind you want if you’re a skier, especially since there is no cold air behind the storm. Had this storm evolved a few weeks ago, different story. Cold air to our north was relatively close and would be tapped into. I also do not hold out much hope for next week’s potential. The lack of cold air to our north and west is persistent and a bit surprising given that it’s still technically winter.

    1. We’re going to have to get enough precipitation into areas that have higher elevation and heavy enough for that to actually work. In reality, it may be only the hills of CT that end up with that if the southern track holds true.

  42. One thing I’ll say about this one, don’t they always seem to creep north and west of where we think they’ll be, even a couple days out

  43. Hey WxWatcher, you called it. 18Z NAM coming more North once again with 850 mb temps dropping. 😀 This is FUN!

      1. Too bad we can’t look at these runs and then know that the
        particular solution will verify. Just doesn’t work that way.

        But this on again/off again stuff is crazy.

    1. why? It is at the very least a possible solution, even IF it may be an unlikely
      solution. And, it is somewhat supported by the SREF, at least in terms of
      precipitation and low position, if not the snow.

      2. It shows hardly any effects of blocking. It has slow movement, but there’s no southeast surface movement to the surface low as it passes south of New England.

        In the chance that the track and the location of the heavy precip is correct, it accumulates the snow as if it were January and 15F out.

        1. Sure it does. Watch the evolution of the closed off
          500mb system. It slides just South of NE and move
          Eastward to ESE feeling the effects of the blocking.

          https://imgur.com/a/npz14

          Is it correct? Well, that is an entirely different story.

          All I am saying is however unlikely, this a solution
          that is on the table.

          And I agree the snow totals are probably over done as
          the models do NOT take into account how warm
          the ground is ahead of this system. However, the Kucera method does take into account thermal profiles.
          And my experience has shown that with enough intensity, the snow will accumulate rapidly.
          Are the totals over done? to be sure, but with this
          solution, there would be a lot of snow.

        2. Nah…. if it were January, this run would have 40-60” as opposed to the paltry 15-30” it is showing here.

  50. JPDave I saw that run of 18z NAM. I think slim and none that solution verifies and slim has just left town. I got a good laugh from that. If that EVER panned out heavy wet snow power outages.

  54. According to Harvey, Boston and the coastline could still flip to snow late in the storm. I myself will wait for storm #2 next week. NWS says a cold front comes through next Tuesday night, better chance for snow like TK has been saying.

  55. As Tom stated, the NAM/GFS are devastating runs for coastal flooding in Eastern MA. Slow moving/stalled, looping storm system near the benchmark and powerful onshore winds are going to push A LOT of water in. That’s going to put streets in Boston under water.

    Arguably worse than a landfalling tropical system because those are typically accelerating as they get into our latitude while this thing will be barely moving.

  56. If that GFS run were to verify, most areas are going to flip to heavy snow much sooner than that model is indicating due to dynamic cooler. The GFS thermal profiles do not pick up that dynamic cooling as well as other models in these situations.

  58. Epic as that 18z NAM run was, it does amaze me how many people are ignoring the Euro. I would say do that at your peril, as high impact storms are the bread and butter of that model.

    I bet we see most of the northern guidance at least start to trend in the ECMWF’s direction tonight. Admittedly, it is a complex forecast, but I don’t feel any less comfortable with a more southerly track than I did this morning. Keep in mind there will still be impacts either way as well, especially at the coast. But I think much less QPF than the amped up solutions. And if it’s the Euro that blinks, then we may have something major or even historic on our hands. I think it unlikely, but it’s on the table given the pattern.

        1. I know it pales from me; but as mac would often say, my buttons are bursting. You have an amazingly bright future. I’m proud to be part of the ground floor.

          1. Glad you’re playing on our team, WxW!
            So happy to be reading your comments again,
            Vicki! Hope you’re doing well!

            1. Thank you and my captain oh captain. I’m doing well….thank you. Captain…your words are wise. What an amazing member of our team.

            2. Agreed. Can’t wait to see what lies ahead for you. You are very smart and also your explanations are easy to follow and it has been great watching your knowledge, etc. grow these past several years and seeing you apply what you have learned.

        2. I’ve told you many times here this winter I really enjoy reading your posts WX the way you explain it is phenomenal.

  59. Shut the models off and apply meteorology here. Even if this comes north- Still a dominant W trough E ridge. No cold Canadian high, no northerly ageostrophic flow, temps are generally above freezing at the surface and above, the BL temps are not going going to be overstated. I saw that mention earlier and if that is an accurate quote that is some seriously misguided applied meteorology.

    In the end though the southerly track is really the only one that makes any meteroglocial sense and if people would stop following every model run because they want to forecast snow, they would do a much greater public service, informing about duration, coastal hazards, wind speeds.

    1. There is a non-met run FB page out there basically guaranteeing big surprise snow for all. They’ve mentioned the wind and coastal flooding issue but the focus is on the fact they are going to be the only one that calls for the big snowstorm that’s a surprise to everyone else, because the NWS and all professional mets are “clueless”.

      1. There is just too much out there. Be it availablity of models, useless models, social media posts by professionals to drive web hits and ratings, and then yes the BS sites and pages that serve nothing but the site / page owner’s ego.

        1. The amount of folks out there that just want to be the first to send out the message for “shock value”. It’s amazing.

    2. JMA…this was my thought as I read here earlier. Well said,

      “Shut the models off and apply meteorology here.”

  61. Ryan Hanrahan on the AmericanWx forum tonight:

    “Well I’m not sure if I added any value to the forecasts I did tonight on-air. Extremely tough to convey the uncertainty and sound like you know what you’re talking about.”

  62. As we wrap up February, NWS-Taunton (soon to be Norton) has recorded 12.18″ of precip in 2018. The Taunton River, along Route 44 in the Taunton-Raynham area, is looking quite healthy. Our sump pump has been running constantly for a while now.

  64. 36 hours ago, the Euro had that same epic solution that the NAM has now been showing for several runs. It was actually the first model to pick up on the possibility of a phased/more amped scenario. Do we see Rayno’s “windshield washer” effect tonight? Nothing would surprise me at this point.

    1. Almost want to stay up for the Euro, but I really should not. Will catch it
      around 6:30 tomorrow Before I get ready for work.

      1. Of course if nature were to call in the middle of the night As is often the case at my age, then a peek at the euro would be in order.

  65. Nam appears to be slow out of the gate this evening??? Not sure why? Perhaps I am just impatient and this is normal?

    The SREF seems to be taking for ever to complete its 21Z Run.

  66. Two more models going bonkers tonight….

    BTV WRF – 4″+ qpf with a stalled storm and still going at 1am sat

    Extended RGEM – not quite as epic as the NAM but gives over an inch of qpf at the end of the storm to Boston as snow and still going at 84 hours.

    1. Thanks Mark. Where do you see the extended RGEM? I have not seen that
      before?

      What is the BTC WRF? Is that the Burkington, VT 4KM Model?

          1. These were posts on the AmericanWx Forum. I don’t have the WRF beyond 48 hours. The RGEM is from the meteocentre site but I copied the link from the post.

    1. Going to be a windy , rainy , lousy couple days . Tie down anything loose around the yard. Sounds like I may need to revisit the job in brantrock I looked at and was awarded as part of the job was removing stone from deck . House is waterfront.

  69. 21Z SREF plumes show a mean snow total for Boston of 3.3 inches
    with one member at 16.9 inches. 😀

    Clearly depicts mostly all rain with a bit of snow at the tail end.

    However, must be pointed out that yet another model is in Camp North.

    North is a pretty popular guy right about now.

  70. Subtle differences in the 00z NAM so far but still looks like it is gearing up for a pretty big hit. Perhaps not to the crazy extent of the 18z…

  71. Big hit on the NAM again though its actually even further north with the heavy precip. Heavy snow in NNE, warmer at least initially with heavy rain in SNE

  72. Low pressure ends up over CT on that run before exiting to the southeast.

    NNE and Upstate NY are crushed with heavy snow on that run. NH and southern ME take the brunt of the heavy rain and winds.

      1. Whatever happens it has been fascinating to see the different outputs and uncertainty. Regardless of the precipitation, the coastal flooding will be a big story with the astronomically high tides with a potential storm surge that could make the total height higher than the January 4th storm.

        1. Yes ! That’s the potentially big big problem.

          This will be 3 perigean full or new moon astronomical high tide sets with an onshore wind event this winter. Normally, it seems you catch 1 of these cycles per winter, but this will be 3. There’s simply no place to put the surge when the tides are astronomically high.

  75. According to the 00z NAM, southern New England gets into the dry slot for some time and the nasty 850 nb jet moves northeast of Boston. …..

    I’m taking my 48+ years of New England weather experience over the NAM …. just too far north.

  76. I have mainly been paying attention to the 00z model runs as that has the most data. going into it.. 1. This snow will be very heavy if it changes. 2 winds more of east direction and continuous which will make any precip let’s say east of i95 mainly if not all WIND swept rain. 3. Since when do we believe in heavy back end snow..

    I could possible eat my words with this storm but does not look good. I rather see nothing than see rain any where west of i95. I would love the name if I could trust it. I am hopeful for a Sunday ski day.

    1. Good stuff…

      Still seems the focus is on the precipitation type. But that’s the mass majority’s obsession.

      1. I mean it’s what gets people to tune in. Just look at the comment count on this blog when a potential storm is on the horizon.

  79. According to Pete, 2-4″ rain potential with dynamic cooling snows, even close to Boston. Only exceptions are South Shore/Cape.

  80. 0z ICON still a big hit, making a loop west of the benchmark.

    Heavy rain and wind with eastern MA taking the brunt. Flips to heavy snow in the hills of Worcester Co, Berkshires and NE CT

  81. 0z GFS way north again. Loops the low over CT like the NAM before exiting southeast.

    More of the same – heavy rain/wind/coastal flooding with flip to snow in NH/ME and interior higher elevations of SNE near the end.

      2. Actually still looks like mostly rain on the CMC but another big hit. 975mb low near Martha’s Vineyard. 3+” of QPF for many and strong winds.

  85. I am worried if 3 inches of rain falls, with strong winds, the marsh behind my house will be filled, probably flood stage, its already at 7 feet based on the buoys I have out there. Only need to rise 3 feet and we start seeing the lower end of the street flood

  87. 00z Euro predictably comes well north with the low making it up to just southwest of Martha’s Vineyard.

    https://s14.postimg.org/afc3a7yld/Capture.jpg

    Still not as amped as the other model solutions with lower QPF on the order of 1-1.5″ in SNE and all rain. Too warm and not enough intense precip. rates for snow anywhere in SNE. Paste job further west in the Catskills with 12-18″ there.

    1. I should add that this is notable increase in QPF from the 12z run which only had 0.10″ to 0.20″ for much of SNE.

  88. Morning,

    Euro did indeed come North, but still is the more suppressed solution of all of the models.

    Although I was always hopeful of snow, I knew there was much against us
    for that. The configuration just isn’t good. The primary is too far North and West of us before the energy transfer. Just too much warmth to overcome. Plus of course no cold air in place. If we get any snow in Boston it will be late in the event and probably would not amount to all that much.

    Curious to see if there are any adjustments with today’s 12Z runs.

    I still think some of these runs are too far West. We shall see.

  90. Have look at these GEFS ensemble members

    http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ensemble-forecasting.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=072

    And GEPS

    http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ensemble-forecasting.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=072

    My only comments is that virtually every member shows a potent system. That doesn’t occur all that often. Pretty good sign this thing is legit, no? 😀

  91. Looking at these ensemble loops, there is some wiggle room for more snow
    than the deterministic runs show. Does not mean it happens, just something to monitor.

  92. Is there a chance the rain & wind could linger into the first half of Saturday as I need to think about doing the job or not and touching base with my customer.

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