Thursday Forecast

300 Comments

2:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
A cold front passed through the region overnight with a few light rain showers. This was not a sharp boundary with lots of cold air behind it so today will still be a mild day as clouds increase ahead of the developing major storm system set to impact the region from later tonight through Friday, with lingering effects into the weekend. There has been uncertainty in the details of the storm track, as in how close it will be to the New England South Coast as it does a loop then heads off to the southeast in response to a rapidly developing blocking high pressure area over Greenland to eastern Canada. The large scale has been a fairly easy forecast but its the minute details that result in forecast difficulties. What I do know is that the just-beyond-full-moon high tide cycles midday Friday, late Friday night, and midday Saturday are going to result in moderate to major flooding on east-facing and north-facing coasts, and minor to moderate flooding elsewhere. Property damage is likely as a result of the moderate to major flooding. Strong east to northeast winds are also a certainty, of course strongest in coastal areas and higher elevations as is typical. This may result in damage as well. A large percentage of the storm’s precipitation will likely be in the form of rain due to a marginal atmosphere I expect to be just warm enough to keep it mainly rain. Some flooding will result as a few bands of heavy rain may move over the same areas for several hours. The wildcard is snowfall. With the atmosphere marginal, the combination of colder air aloft and heavy precipitation can change rain to wet snow, and this can occur in a patchy fashion and not a more uniform rain/snow line. This is a very difficult aspect of the storm to forecast as just differences of a couple degrees can mean the difference between no snow, a few inches of snow, and a much larger snowfall accumulation. Going to play the lower side on the snow for now, keeping in mind that this can change very rapidly and updates will come if necessary. The forecast will reflect a mix/change from late Friday afternoon into Friday night before the storm pulls its heaviest precipitation southward and out of the region. The odds favor accumulation in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH, and also possibly over higher elevations of northern RI and nearby MA. Will keep the forecast numbers conservative for these areas at this point and allow for a minor accumulation at the end of the storm elsewhere. By the weekend and Monday, this storm will have evolved into a very large circulation as it heads southeastward toward Bermuda, and southeastern New England will remain under the influence of it with some lingering coastal flooding, gusty wind, and a few rain/snow showers, especially Saturday, diminishing thereafter. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 52-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind N to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, may mix with or turn to snow higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH late in the day. Temperatures steady 38-45 much of day then falling slowly late. Wind E 15-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH interior, 25-40 MPH with gusts 50-70 MPH coast, strongest Cape Cod. Coastal flooding especially near high tide times. Road flooding possible due to heavy rain. Probable wind damage and scattered power outages.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Mix/snow higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH, rain may end as mix/snow elsewhere. Early-call accumulation 1-4 inches higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH and possibly northern RI and nearby MA, less than 1 inch elsewhere. Precipitation tapering off north to south. Lows 32-39. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Moderate to major coastal flooding around high tide times.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Coastal flooding around high tide times, especially north-facing shores.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Blocking pattern continues. Next storm threat favoring late March 6 to early March 9 and may include some snow/mix.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Blocking pattern continues. One more storm threat possible favoring the middle of this period.

300 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. Happy Meteorological Spring!’

    Scoot, lamb…Little lamb, scoot now.
    It’s not your turn just yet.
    Make room for the lion!
    See you in about a month, little lamb…

    Thank, TK, and Happy March, y’all!

  7. Tough call on my debris job & dismantling a swing / play set. It might not be raining than / or it may be but the wind for sure will be cranking . Today is the day for coastal community’s to prepare . I think these high tide cycles will be much worse than the January storm and that one caused lots of problems as folks who never flooded got flooded .

  10. From Bernie Rayno
    anyone that follows me knows that I am not a fan of the NAM. However, one of its strengths IMO is with deepening east coast storms. In particular NAm does well with the overall structure. If I was ever going to factor the NAM into my thinking it would be with this storm.

    1. Interesting. We’ll know soon enough, will be now casting before we know it.

      Time to find that freezing level map/site. Anyone have it???

  12. As we are 24 to 36 hrs away, the best weather present today could be a continued shift southward in the whole system.

    I wonder if, as the system moves southeastward after its mini stall or loop, if that motion adds the whole east coast, south of New England to see a storm surge Saturday and into Sunday, as our storm surges slowly lower ……..

  15. euro now showing about a half inch of liquid in the form of snow. which would equal a light snowfall. this is one of those storms that the Met can not win

  17. Thanks TK. I think we are finally seeing a general southward trend in guidance, as noted by the latest NWS Boston discussion. Watching to see if that continues with the 12z runs.

    The continued public obsession with the snow issue is disheartening. If anything, the potential for significant snow outside the high terrain with this looks lower now than it did yesterday. Even in the high terrain, it’s marginal, and further southward shifts will cut totals there as well. All about the coast with this one.

    2. I agree. My guard is up since we’ve been surprised in the past, but yes, absolutely agree with all points made here.

      1. Tk do you agree with Ch 4 putting a snow map out for Boston/ south I mean was that really necessary.

  20. Great, detailed forecast.

    It’s always interesting riding the T when the weather is forecast to change dramatically. A woman just got onto the bus wearing a Canada Goose parka with the hood up and a scarf wrapped twice around her neck and covering her lower face followed by a man wearing a 2017 Boston Marathon windbreaker.

    It’s been interesting to follow the Beast from the East storm in the UK. Some snow amounts have been significant by New England standards, which is unusual. It’s as if we’ve swopped weather with them.

    1. My colleague’s mum teaches in Ireland. There’s no school today or tomorrow due to “The Beast from the East.”

  23. Thanks TK

    Possible 1-4 here

    I’m thinking schools away from coast will be in session. I’d think coastal areas will cancel

  24. In the little details department, 12z NAM 850mb 0C line is much farther South
    and East for the same time period. Ie 18 hours for 12z compared with 24 hours for
    6z. Something like 30-50 miles. Not sure that hold for later hours. Watching
    very carefully.

  25. I do agree that the number 1 threat to lives and property with this system are coastal wind/flooding. However, regarding the public’s concern with snow, realize that the majority of the people in SNE do not live on the immediate coastline. For inland areas, a windy rain storm with 40-50mph wind gusts is something we typically see several times of year and can deal with. A flip to a wind blown 5:1 ratio snow on the other hand would paste everything in heavy wet snow and cause major problems with trees/branches and power lines, even if it’s only 4-6″. Living in the hilltowns of eastern CT (or if I lived anywhere in Worcester County or higher terrain of MA), the potential for that honestly is my main concern. For the general public, it’s all about where you live and the impacts of the storm where you live, and this storm may be remembered for different things in different areas.

    I’ve experienced the Oct 4, 1988 snowstorm in Albany NY where we got 6″ as well as the Oct. 2011 snowstorm in CT where I received 10″ and both systems caught people off guard with the amount of heavy wet snow and dynamic cooling that occurred in marginal conditions. Both systems caused complete carnage with trees and power lines. Granted some of these trees still had leaves on them, but both of those storms didn’t have the wind component that this storm is going to have either.

    This could very well be a non-event with the snow component, but I wouldn’t let your guard down to the possibility.

    1. Mark, agree 100%. Hey, the snow may not even materialize, but just
      the potential for that to happen has to be monitored very carefully.

  32. With the NAM runs, the storm comes in here with a powerful punch and then
    retreats rather quickly and all done by 9Z Satuday or about 4AM.

  33. From what I’m reading on twitter. This looks like a blizzard of 78 just with a lot more rain. Tremendous damage from high tides. Not Good!

    1. A less potent version. Somewhat similar setup…. but enough differences to warrant skipping the overall comparison.

      1. I agree tk a less potent than 78 but people along the coast need to start prepping this is MAJOR FOR THE COAST!!! Game changer

  34. So I’ve made mention several times in several places on the net about the NAM showing significant snow accumulation while still showing rain falling for the same location but not one person anywhere has commented on this.

    1. Hey I noticed the NAM is showing snow (and a lot of it!) while also showing rain following in the SAME location. Crazy. 🙂

  35. Regardless of what happens it will be very interesting to watch the storm unfold. Dynamic cooling is probably one of the hardest things to forecast, but we’ve all seen how it can quickly change the weather here in New England

  36. I am surprised where I live there is not a winter weather alert of some sort that has been issued. I remember the October 2011 Noreaster when it was suppose to change to rain later in the day and we ended up with snow from start to finish getting a foot of snow. I am wondering if this storm will offer some surprises in a faster change over time?

  38. This is a good page for tidal data. You can navigate around to different locations. I’ve linked Boston’s data here. We’re approaching high tide now, already running close to a full foot (red line) above the astronomical projection (blue line). There will likely be places, at least pockets, where this worse than ’78. There were a couple such pockets with the 1/4 storm so I don’t see why this would be different.

    https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8443970

    1. Yikes, not what folks along the flood prone areas of the coast want to hear, but they should be prepared for the worst.

  39. This will be interesting to watch how this multi hazard storm plays out. I am hoping the forecast is wrong for the coastal areas. I love storms and tracking them but I never want to see property damage or god forbid loss of life.

    1. GFS has missed almost every single storm this winter in terms of snowfall. Given the complexity of this system, I’d go as far to say its worthless from here on out with this storm.

      1. Probably. My take on this run is that it has the 850 mb temps
        crash to the coast by 4PM Friday. That is significant imho.

  44. Hi all. I wonder if I can get a bit of help from the WHW “experts”….
    My daughter is flying from JFK to Portland, OR tomorrow night around 7:30 pm. Are there likely to be delays? Should I encourage her to try to move things up earlier in the day or even tonight? Thanks so much for any advice or opinions on this…

  45. I can confirm that we saw very minor flooding here in Quincy with the high tide this morning. Makes me even more concerned for tomorrow.

    1. That and WxWeather’s link sure are worrisome. Thank you, both.

      I have been reading on the Humarock FB page and it seems they are preparing actively for shelters for both two and four legged residents.

  46. JPDave Ryan Hanrahan said in his blog last night GFS has a warm bias in the low levels.
    Here is part of his blog.
    For our snow forecast we discounted the GFS low level temperatures (it is frequently way too warm in these setups and is basically unusable) and we’ve blended the thermal profiles from the NAM and European models.

    1. Thanks JJ. I was thinking along those lines.

      CMC seems to be suffering the same fate while it’s counter part the RDPS
      looks better.

      So, I am waiting on the UKMET and then the Euro.

  47. Is there a chance we might see some thunder and lightning tomorrow or tomorrow night? Or is that more likely to happen over the ocean when the storm really intensifies?

    1. Look at the post below his.

      Someone posted that the GFS went 100% towards the NAM aloft.

      IE 850 temps which I mentioned above.

  50. 12Z UKMET is almost out. The classic view is ready.
    Just looking at low positions without benefit of the 850 mb chart, I would say
    that the UKIE is on board with a flip to snow somewhere in the 4PM to 8PM time
    frame tomorrow.

    1. Very good. I’ll have my cell phone with me as I float out into the Atlantic. Let us know when the changeover happened. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. How far from the Water are you located?
        Are you good?

        What about school? Is it cancelled tomorrow?

        1. Hull is the only school system I’m seeing closed….that is if they are all reporting into WHDH

        2. We’ll be good.

          I am down the street from the edge of the south river.

          In big events, the salt marsh becomes a lake and has sent some water into the street just to the north.

          I am worried about Brant Rock, Green Harbor, Humarock areas. Also, the road initially getting to brant rock climbs a bit. In the worst cases, the ocean water can reach the apex of the road and the heads downhill, westbound, sending water relatively far away from the immediate shore.

          No announcements now. I assume this evening, if the town orders evacuations and if the powers that be really think and realize that there will be dozens, if not a few hundred students who cant be sent home, they will have to cancel school tomorrow.

  53. Coastal waters forecast from NWS:

    Nantucket Sound-
    Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
    out 20 nm-
    Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
    and Nantucket-
    350 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

    …HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
    THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT…

    The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Hurricane
    Force Wind Watch, which is in effect from Friday morning through
    late Friday night. The Storm Watch has been cancelled.

    * WINDS AND SEAS…Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to
    70 kt. Seas 26 to 31 feet.

    31 FOOT SEAS…..yikes!

  54. Very good model agreement at this lead time on the development of a coastal storm next Thursday. GFS/Euro/GGEM/ICON all show an east coast nor’easter. Much better potential for that system if you are looking for snow….big east coast trough and more cold air to work with.

    GFS showing the third storm threat around 3/12 as well.

    1. Hmmmmm – I seem to recall someone mentioning both of those time frames several days ago. I will not give away his name, but his initials are T and K 😉

    1. South coast catches the last of the more intense precip after the 850 mb temps
      crash.

      We shall see.

  60. 12Z Euro is in. Ho Hum. Not much cooking with that baby. By the time the 850 mb
    temps crash, the heavier precip is moving off towards the South in response to
    blocking. Pretty much the TK scenario. Has Snow for 12 hours, 7PM Friday to 7AM Saturday with little to no accumulation.

    We shall see.

    1. I wish we could see 36 hrs for the 12z EURO. Can you ??

      Otherwise I guess I’ll be waiting for the 00z run tonight and the 24 hr panel. To me, tomorrow afternoon and evening is crunch time.

  61. Too bad I am not up in elevation in Litchfield County
    From Ryan Hanrahan
    New guidance showing the potential for over a foot of snow in the highest hill towns of Litchfield County.

    1. Depicts it pretty well.

      My feeling is that this storm will be so powerful, it may creep
      a little more North and put up a battle before finally being overcome
      by the block.

      1. I agree. I wonder if that little feature north of Maine may also tug it slightly northward before the block sends it southeast.

  63. Just an observation.

    I went out for lunch around 12:15 and it was sunny with no noticeable wind
    and my car thermometer was reading 62.

    I came back from lunch around 1:20 or so and there was a fresh Easterly breeze
    and the temp had fallen to 54 with a chill in the air.

    1PM Logan obs
    temp 52, wind East at 14

    1. not good. Just gives the wave action a bit of a head start, might add a tenth or two tenths of a foot of surge today that cant escape tomorrow.

  64. People saying in last few minutes they are receiving no school texts in Marshfield for Friday.

  66. National guard going with 2o high water trucks and 10 more on call ready to go . He stated we expect to loose homes . I have a very , very bad feeling about this one causing major destruction along parts of the coastal community. I’ve been through this living down on the south shore and it’s darn right scary when something like this comes along . You can board up take preparations but basically you are helpless and you just wait it out and hope for the best . I’ll probably be posting live shots from the coast on Saturday.

    1. I’m dumbfounded by the Friday midnight tide forecast in Scituate.

      Around a 4 ft surge combined with 25 ft waves. I don’t think people may understand what that will do IF this two components verify.

  69. I was about to mention that about the EURO tending to under done wind gusts.
    Hopefully it won’t be as bad for the coastal areas. This would be a time for a forecast bust to happen and the coastal areas will not have to deal with the surge damaging winds and coastal flooding.

    1. We can hope for a forecast bust along the coast, but I fear that is the only thing about this storm that is a sure thing. Everything else is a wildcard.

        1. Rain qpf is 2-4 inches depending upon your model of choice, however the Euro is only about 1 inch for Boston
          up to 2 inches South coast.

    1. I think it has kept the snow More to the West and even SouthWest.
      Not so much for Eastern Sections.

  74. 18Z NAM a bit of a down tic on the snow.

    More like a Super windorainorama cake with a snow frosting.

  75. Hi all. Catching up. Busy day.

    SSK to answer your question about the snow map from this morning. It was absolutely without a doubt 100% necessary. It’s Eric’s forecast and very well thought out, whether it verifies or not. They will update it today of course.

      2. Matt…I get what you are saying. Those areas that depend on snow for a living are not getting it and that is a shame. As is the case the past year or so, when they get it, it warms and then freezes. Not good for ski areas.

        1. Yes I get what he says too but to flat out ignore a part of hard working people too is ignorant

          1. I’m not being ignorant,I just feel like areas to the north need it and like people down south want it, I want it as well, and when it’s south of the mass pike, it stinks. Especially when all things considered my area usually never the sweat spot. My dad calls our area the snow eater

            1. Also what Vicki said ski areas been struggling more so than these people with snow removal. Remember many people in ski areas this is their main time. Snow removal is is usually secondary to land escaping or some something similar

              1. I agree Matt. But in the end it really doesn’t matter what we want….we get what we get. My heart will always be with ski areas because they have had decades of struggles.

                2. I was taught to include all people and also to respect all people.

                  I took the time to ask Matt what he meant before I assumed. I was also taught not to assume

            1. Aidan.
              1. how is this anything about inclusion? All I am saying is I wish my area and ski areas are getting snow. We have had a lot of storms did not do that well for my area and ski areas have been struggling to keep snow.

  77. With those snowfall amounts on the NAM and the wind power outages are certainly very possible.

  79. NWS out of Albany must be asleep I am surprised there is not a Winter Weather alert up for my county yet with the amount of snow forecasted.

    1. Still so much uncertainty, but you’re right, someone over there (and in Norton) needs to make a call

    2. Sometimes it depends on staffing and timing of shift changes. They have to coordinate etc. It takes time and believe me they are frustrated with how things go sometime. They’ll get things updated soon.

  81. Imagine major rain storm to blizzard? Could someone in lets say southcentral/ southeast mass get blizzard conditions for a time Friday night before the precip shuts down? Winds would be strong enough.

  82. Those 18z NAM snowfall amounts hint at a big precipitation gradient in northeast Mass. since the snow is dependent on heavy precip, it says heavy precip in northeast mass wont be around very long, if it even makes it up there.

    1. Some snow lovers may end up being very disappointed.

      This is one of the weirdest set ups I have ever seen.

      I haven’t a clue as to what will or won’t happen. Late yesterday I was
      getting that feeling that we were about to receive a big surprise.
      Now, I dunno. Euro was disappointing to say the least. Wonder what
      the GFS has to say.

        1. If they think they are getting snow, they may be disappointed when they don’t get any.

          However, the opposite is equally true.
          Those that are Not expecting any snow may be disappointed when they get snow.

          Not to be a wise-ass, but for this storm,
          It’s all up in the air!

          1. check out some of the radar simulations showing up on the weather newscasts. Honest to goodness, the hose of precip off the Atlantic, that fetch is almost south of Boston at 6pm tomorrow night. It hangs in southeast Mass a lot longer.

  83. Unprecedented blizzard unfolding over Ireland. Once in a millennium. This from the Irish weather service and was issued 40 minutes ago:

    SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE ***EXTREME***

    Update from Met Eireann

    This is an exceptional upgrade in relation to Storm Emma from Met Eireann and the expected snow accumulations have now doubled with up to or 100cm of snow over the coming 23 hours in Counties Wicklow and Dublin with the Red warning extended to 1800HRS tomorrow (Friday). again the the highest risk areas of County Wicklow and Dublin with the Red warning extended to 1800HRS tomorrow (Friday) in Leinster and Munster.

    1. If Google is correct, 100cm equates to 39 inches, that would be insane!

      For us here in the WHW area, we have seen many situations where dynamic cooling has ruined forecasts and both TK and SAK have both mentioned their concern for the possibility with this storm, albeit low.

  85. Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for northern Worcester County, the Berkshires, and northern Litchfield County in CT. Winter Weather Advisory for JJ in southern Litchfield County.

  86. Hmmm….

    Talk about a WILD CARD. Look at the GFS.
    At 1PM 850 Temps have crashed virtually to the coast.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conusncep.php?run=2018030118&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=024

    By 4PM they are well off shore

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conusncep.php?run=2018030118&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=027

    Yet the GFS shows NO SNOW (At least with the Instant Weather Maps Kuchera
    chart)

    Will check Pivotal which runs a little behind. Not finished but not catching it either.

    Let’s assume for the moment that the GFS lower level thermal profile is whacked out.
    And further assume that the rain snow line is roughly where the 850mb 0C line is.
    THEN we snow in Boston heavily to decently from 1 or 2PM until about 1 or 2 AM OR
    “roughly” 12 hours. Even at 1/2 inch per hour accumulation (not out of the question
    with intensity and ratio) that’s 6 inches of cement.

    This “could” get very very interesting yet. Then again, it may never snow a flake
    or anything in between.

    I WILL enjoy tomorrow, not matter what happens.

    1. There are other things ongoing at other layers that may kill that possibility at the coast.

      I almost think the NWS may verify parts of their low end, expected, and high end maps in various parts of the region.

      1. I suppose. Would you care to elaborate?
        And comment on why the GFS see these other things
        and the NAM does not?

        Just curious and inquiring.

        1. I don’t think it’s so much the GFS sees things the NAM doesn’t. In theory, the NAM should do better at this range due to higher resolution. There are exceptions of course. There is a low level jet issue that may be injecting a ton of mild air and literally destroying the snow as it falls.

          And intensity is going to matter a whole lot. I have a feeling that the way this orientates itself we put the heaviest stuff in a curve from the Worcester Hills right down through RI and interior southeastern MA. These areas may end up as a relative snow jackpot while Boston to the North Shore and interior northeastern MA gets very little.

          1. yup. all simulated radars im seeing on tv showing precip shutting off from north to south in boston area around 6pm tomorrow evening.

  87. Mark I agree with the winter weather advisory for my part of Litchfield County. Currently in the 2-6 range. If the flip happens sooner I could see half a foot for my area. If it later closer to the 2.

  88. http://www.mass.gov/eea/docs/czm/czm-regions.pdf

    Love to look at the maps before big flooding events ….

    From the mass/nh border to Rockport, notice the concave shape of the coastline. That area is a big concern with its ability to have the NE wind pile the water into that concave shape that just cannot escape.

    From the southern side of Rockport to Revere, while there would be high water and flooding, notice that a NE wind parallels this part of the coast and is really not onshore. This might be an area to expect slightly less intense flooding.

    From Hull to Plymouth is the bullseye with a northeast wind. The way the coast sticks out, a northeast wind of about 040 to 070 or so is directly perpendicular right into the landmass. This is why most of the TV coverage will take place anywhere from Hull to Sandwich because it usually is the location of the worst flooding with long duration northeast winds.

    And then theres Cape Cod Bay. When those winds back more to NNE later Friday evening, I cant imagine the amount of water that is going to be pushed into the bay and held there.

  89. GoForSnow, We’re accustomed to (blessed in my view since I like snow) major snowstorms. Perhaps not 39 inches, but we certainly get our fair share of major storms, almost annually. Ireland is totally unprepared and unaccustomed to snowstorms of any kind. In fact, even light snow is rare, and severe frost, too. I was telling my daughter last week before she flew back to Ireland that the one thing she doesn’t have to worry about is snow. Famous last words (I feel like a dolt for saying that). My guess is that 100cm will only be achieved in the higher elevations around the city. But, the storm is packing a punch, has a tremendous amount of qpf, and is stalling close to the Irish Sea.

  90. the other trend that has been disheartening today is ….. the models, I believe, have come lower on the expected pressures of this storm. If I’m correct, the past few days the pressure has been projected to be in the low to mid 980 mbs. Now, it seems that its down several millibars to the mid to high 970 mbs. That, in turn, increases the pressure gradient, which increases the wind potential, etc …….

  91. ok, I am in error big time about the precip being shutting off by 6pm tomorrow night north of Boston. I don’t know what I was seeing.

      1. What’s your latest thoughts for Woburn? If you are doing an update later I can wait.

  92. I hope everyone stays safe tomorrow; especially at the coast, heed your local authorities. I won’t be able to follow as closely as I’d like; I’m spending the next couple days in Albany, NY visiting SUNY Albany. I will likely be starting here as a graduate student and teaching assistant in the fall. Some of the biggest snows with this storm should come in the high terrain of this area, but the city itself is fairly low lying and usually falls in a snow shadow. Will be very interested in how everything plays out.

    3. Again….and as I’m sure everyone knows by now what Mac would say….I am bursting my buttons.

  93. According to Pete, the latest trend is for a changeover to snow much sooner and more of it regionwide. What model is he looking at? Just curious.

      1. Some tv mets might be like that but I don’t get that impression from Pete. I could be wrong though.

        1. You are correct. One thing I learned early on from Pete is that he loves his job and always does it to the very best of his ability. He detested being told what to do by management

        2. That was the knock on him with Ch 7 (whether it was self inflicted or station mandated). I thought he got away from it once he got on NBC Boston but I admit I don’t watch that station at all so I can’t say if I notice it still

            1. Should have said common criticism. I’m not by any means criticizing him, I’m just saying it was well known when he was at 7. As others have said, it was a mandate from management to provide the shock and awe factor to get ratings. People sometimes don’t understand that though and thought it was a reflection on him

              1. I have always said that about 7. Know how I knew? Pete told me years ago when he replaced Todd. Possibly before. He put out extended forecasts as was expected but he was always clear. He didn’t play the game. BZ has surpassed 7 in shock and awe but the Mets there also manage to work around it.

  94. Couple things to keep an eye on. Tweets from Meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    Hmm, mesoscale guidance is starting to come in rather warm for late tomorrow morning when the strong lifting is supposed to cool the atmosphere and allow for snow.

    If the HRRR/RAP guidance is a lead indicator of a warmer/further west track, should be interesting to see NAM and rest of 00Z guidance for adjustments.

  95. Re Pete’s statement on-air: They run an in-house model and I believe the reference may have been to that.

    Pete, and those who preceded him, like Harvey, at Ch 7, were asked to play the hype game. That is one of the reasons Harvey left that station. I watch Pete daily now on NBC Boston and he is simply just excited about weather and loves his job. He can have an aggressive style somewhat like Eric Fisher, but both of them are always prepared to back up their forecast, even knowing it may be more aggressive than the overall average. Unfortunately, sometimes the reputation are particular meteorologist (or any person) gains at one station carries over by default to the next place they work, even if the style is refined.

    It’s not a surprise that even just hours away from the start of the event we’re seeing some notable differences in the guidance. Given that only a couple of degrees spread throughout thousands of feet can mean the difference between wet flakes mixing in and a flip to heavy wet snow with several inches weighing down the wires and trees, this is pretty much expected for an event like this.

    1. Harvey said that even a 1/2 of a degree can mean the difference between lots of snow and no snow. Talk about a”closecall”. 😉

      1. And there are people who think meteorologists have it easy. Yeah, sometimes. 😛

        1. And getting back to Pete, what exactly is that “in-house” model? Do all tv stations have them?

          1. Thanks I just wanted to verify. Ground is very soft I think trees will drop . I think come Saturday there will be a lot of state of emergencies. Still think some folks don’t get what’s about to go down .

            1. yeah, the people in charge of the Nantucket Field station I stayed at told me that bluff has lost several inches. There is barely a sand bar blocking the harbor and the salt marsh thats next to the field station.

  97. Regarding the 1978 Blizzard, did a degree or two make the difference between an all-snow and snow to rain situation? I remember Logan temps did get as high as 33F for a time but ultimately never mixed or changed over.

  98. Just finally got a chance to read NWS write up. That is one heck of a read. Scary stuff for the coast

  99. Cape Cod is an incredibly interesting place from a geological perspective because it changes from year to year in perceptible ways. Most geological changes are minute. For example, Mt. Washington and all the Appalachian mountains lose an inch or so every year. Eventually the Presidentials will just be rolling hills … in millions of years. But, Cape Cod has changed rather dramatically in my lifetime, and the most important driver of change is storms like tomorrow’s. The beach erosion tomorrow will be extensive, along with property damage to homes and cottages close to the water.

    1. Nauset Light and Coast Guard beaches in Eastham are where I’ve seen exactly what you have described. The sand dunes have probably eroded 10 to 15 feet in my lifetime and they have rebuilt the parking lots a few times. They also had to move Nauset lighthouse across the street to add more land between it and the eroding cliff.

      1. Yes, precisely. My Dad used to take the family to Nauset Light during the summer (we camped at the Wellfleet Sanctuary). On our way home from the beach he’d tell us about Cape Cod’s geology and all the changes that were occurring from year to year.

                1. Nice ! They built a cool path down to Nauset lights beach instead of the steep stairwell down the steep dune.

    2. some of the white MTNS are actually growing.

      I had a class in coastal geology and may of our field trips were to the cape. We visited many of the beaches. From about October through Late March they are going through a storm beach process in which storms take the sand away out into the ocean. Many of the currents change during this period and are highly variable. Sending sand out and side ways, all over the place. The process is beneficial as helps decrease wave velocity. During April through September, the beaches go back to a general flow state in which the geological aspects of the region control the water flow. This allows for sand build up back on the beaches. This process has gone on for thousands of years its just that humans interfered with it.

  100. Philip, the surface temperature at Logan may have gotten as high as 33F during the Blizzard of `78, but aloft and to our north and west at the surface and aloft it was very cold (hence a very different scenario compared to tomorrow’s storm). My guess is that the rain/snow line was as far southeast as the Outer Cape and Nantucket. During the 1997 blizzard Logan was mostly above freezing on March 31st and at 32F in the wee hours of April 1st. Yet again, aloft the air was quite cold, as was the air to our west and north. Once the changeover occurred the rain/snow line moved southeast towards the Cape and stayed there. I do not think Nantucket got accumulating snow during the 1997 storm, but parts of the Cape did.

  101. I think blizzard like conditions can not be ruled out if rain does change to snow for some people. Remember Blizzard does not equal a bunch of snowfall. TK thoughts?

    2. Blizzard like conditions, no question in areas that are snow but I’m not sure any location will meet the official criteria because you need to maintain it for 3 hours. The inland areas that get the most snow probably don’t meet the wind criteria.

  103. I ordered from Omaha steak for the first time in years. So if we are lucky enough to lose power…..post game cookout in Sutton 🙂

  105. WxWatcher – congrats on SUNY Albany! I grew up in that area. If you get the chance, drive up into the Helderberg mountains/Thacher Park area in SW Albany County (literally only a short 20 min drive down Rte 85 from SUNY). They are at 1600 feet elevation and always cash in big time on these elevation storms. I can easily see them pulling off 12-18” while the city only gets an inch or two.

  107. Ok, the 00z NAM is very worrisome. The pressure is down around 972mb and the 70 and 80 mph wind gust contours are onshore. And the heaviest precip overlays that windfield.

  108. Wind gusts already to 73 mph at Snowshoe WV. This thing is really ramping up!

    It’s starting to get a little breezy here as well. Temp has dropped from 52 to 46 in the last two hours.

  109. Glad I am not a meteorologist in NYC
    Tweet from Eric Fisher
    NYC right on the edge of blizzard conditions tomorrow afternoon with heavy snow oh-so-close and strong winds. Extremely difficult forecast in that direction.

  112. Just looked out at my anemometer….errr, the flag across the street. What was a gentle breeze earlier is a straight out east…possibles somewhat SE….flag.

  114. Sorry folks, got tied up with some in-house projects, an errand for a friend, and a wild Bruins game.

    Catching up…

    Eric’s tweet about next week’s event: Nothing wrong with it. I’ve already been talking about that one, but not losing focus of this one.

    Wind gusts Pembroke: 55-65 MPH top gusts.

    Blizzard of ’78 question from Philip: Temperatures were cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere except for some of the storm on Cape Cod. Boston was a little closer to marginal but it was really just around 32 at the surface and cold enough above to start, then it got colder.

    If I missed anything let me know.

  115. NAMS down a bit on Snow, but up a bit on Wind.

    AS Tom alluded to, 70+ mph wind gusts come ashore by 10+ miles or so.

    Wow!! 80 near South Shore.

    1. I’m really not in Camp Snow. Anything would be a bonus.

      Waiting on GFS. That will be after the News.

    2. 1 mile from Hingham Harbor and 3 miles from the Atlantic here and about 150 ft up from sea level…hmmm what could possibly go wrong

        1. The FM antennas are roof mounted and have held up pretty well…always have to remember which way to turn them…into the wind or broadside. Checking what I did in the past. It’s the big wire loop that goes up into the trees that could be a problem. Will keep an eye on that. In the early morning before it get’s too bad I’ll give it some slack and maybe take the smaller loop down. Have a quick doctor’s appointment at 10:15…hitting Stop N Shop around 8.

  116. Scott, nice pictures. Thanks for sharing.

    Mark, that area to the southwest of Albany is very nice. I know Kinderhook well. The Helderberg Mountains are close to Kinderhook. Some place in NY State’s going to get 20 inches out of this system.

    You mentioned the area near Tahoe. Beautiful mountains – Sierras – and they do get tons and tons of snow. I remember driving through a tiny town called Strawberry on the way from Placerville to the mountains and Tahoe.

    1. Indicates intensity influence further south. Hinted at this in my forecast today because I’m grasping at straws to get something right. 😉

  118. I actually was just at the Grocery Store. Barely a soul in the place.
    I just picked up some more soup and some elboe macaroni and Whole peeled tomatoes
    to have something around just in case. Even picked up some rock case in case
    of the other scenario. Got my batteries last night. I guess we’re all set to deal with whatever comes our way.

    Looks like a wild day.

    OH and while out, temp at 43 with a pretty stiff NE breeze. Notice I said NE and not E. That is because it is NE. I can see the moon through high clouds, but the low
    clouds are ROARING by and I mean roaring. Pretty damn strong low level winds
    up there.

    It actually feels like snow even though it WILL be raining.

  119. HRRR runs tonight have trending milder and a bit further south with the low center and heaviest precipitation band (slightly). I still have to chuckle over the amount of time it has been taking to figure out the least impactful aspect of this one. But I guess the wind and coastal flooding issues are pretty locked in.

  120. My weather station, measuring a north wind at about 13. some gusts coming from the NE in the mid 20s

  121. Good morning.

    Boston harbor tidal gauge showing a current storm surge of +1.85 ft. That is sobering with 7+ hrs til high tide.

    Given the 4 am observations and the sound of the wind, I am concerned we are going to get to a +4 ft surge on this morning’s 11:15 am high tide which would put the tide height at 15.7 ft. Really concerned for anyone that decided to stay in flood prone areas.

        1. If you’re worried about snow where you are don’t worry that much. Otherwise no changes other than maybe a little sooner for peaking both wind/rain and a little sooner for pulling it out this evening. May still end as snow but I’m not too excited about much accumulation around your area.

          1. Thanks for the reply. Honestly I fully admit I am having house framing done and it’s half way done just getting soaked and pulled with wind. Nothing I can do and I am no builder but I figure it cant be good ha. Seems we are in a train of bad weather since they decided to start.

            Any guess how much rain for us?

            1. Ah so we can blame you then. 😛

              j/k

              1 to 3 inches for rain, but 3 may be a stretch.

              1. That’s not bad. Better than 4 or 5”. Yeah sorry you can blame me 100% ha. Wish they started a month ago or waited another month.

      2. The 00z Euro.

        Looked impressive. At 8pm tonight, it has an 80 knot (850 mb) low level jet over most of southeast Mass. Up in the Woburn area, it appears to be a 70 knot jet. If this verifies, you only need to mix 50% of that to the surface and there’s 35 to 40 knot wind gusts. If the mixing gets to 70%, then we are talking 49 to 56 knot wind gusts.

        2. That LLJ is also going to play a role in keeping the snow from taking over sooner, and may prevent it completely in some areas.

    2. Tom I believe the midnight one will be the worst of it although there is 3 to contend with ( not good )

  122. When I woke up at 2am or so, it was snowing hard at 33f. Now it’s raining at 32f. Wind NE at 5mph. Ground is coated.

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