Friday Forecast

442 Comments

6:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)
The storm is here. Much of what was in yesterday’s discussion holds true, and now to try to focus a few things. Slightly faster timeline, wind already increasing pre-dawn and will build to its peak through morning and midday then peak this afternoon through late this evening. Moderate to major coastal flooding starts as the midday high tide cycle approaches, eases only slightly between cycles only to peak again around high tide cycles around midnight tonight and again midday Saturday. The wind fetch will hold some of the water in near the coast keeping the flooding going even during lower tide times. East-facing and north-facing shores are the most vulnerable to major flooding. However depending on the orientation of the lowlands in any particular region, some locations will see standing water flooding from the magnitude of the tide height and the difficulty in draining it out between tides. Other aspects: Wind damage due to powerful gusts. Power outages both due to wind gusts, especially coastal areas, and in over inland higher elevations where any heavy/wet snow accumulates later in the storm. Regarding the snow, always been the wild card and my latest thinking is a slightly faster timing may prevent some of the change-over and accumulation especially regarding southwestern NH and the northern Worcester Hills. Still have some concerns about heavy/wet snow accumulating up to several inches in higher elevations of the southern Worcester Hills to northern RI. I’m not overly concerned at the moment with much in the way of snow elsewhere, but will monitor as timing of the cooling atmosphere and precipitation intensity will determine that snow part of the system. Some locations in the hills of Worcester County actually started as snow in the pre-dawn hours, but it has since warmed enough for rain and the bulk of the precipitation will be rain today, which will lead to areas of street flooding. Beyond the storm’s direct impact, still expecting the blustery conditions to continue right through the weekend, even into Monday, before easing. By Tuesday, we’ll be eyeing the approach of a new storm system, but we’ll talk more about that on the next blog update. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times. Probable change to snow mid to late afternoon higher elevations southwestern NH and central MA with possible mix nearby to these areas. Moderate to major coastal flooding especially midday on. Areas of street flooding. Areas of wind damage. Temperatures 38-45 through midday falling slowly this afternoon to 34-42 especially interior areas. Wind NE increasing to 20-30 MPH sustained with gusts 40-60 MPH interior locations, and 30-40 MPH sustained with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal areas. Wind gusts will be more frequently in the lower end of the region and less frequently toward the higher end
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain except higher elevation snow southwestern NH through central MA into northern RI with a mix and/or snow change possible for some of the lower elevations prior to a tapering of precipitation from north to south. Potential snow accumulation of 1-3 inches favoring higher elevations with under 1 inch to nothing elsewhere, but a 3-6 maximum accumulation may occur in some of the highest elevations. Still some uncertainty on these amounts with many locations possibly seeing nothing at all in terms of snow. Temperatures steady 33-41. Wind NE to N 20-30 MPH sustained with gusts 40-60 MPH interior locations, and 30-40 MPH sustained with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal areas. Wind gusts will be more frequently in the lower end of the region and less frequently toward the higher end, diminishing slightly overnight. Moderate to major coastal flooding and additional wind damage.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain/snow showers possible. Highs 37-44. Wind N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 30-37. Wind N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of a snow shower early. Better chance of snow showers at night. Highs 38-45. Wind N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)
Large scale blocking pattern remains in place and for us here in southeastern New England the next storm threat exists March 7-8 with rain/mix/snow possible. Improving weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)
Another storm threat early in this period as the overall pattern remains the same, then improving weather would again follow this.

442 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. A little unclear but I think the heaviest is over by 7PM and a shut-off happens after 9PM. May need to adjust that.

      1. No problem thanks. My phone app (which, again, is the worst thing) says around 10pm-ish so not too far off for once.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Although I was always hopeful that we would get a change to snow, at least for Boston it is looking less and less likely. If it ever does, it won’t amount to much of anything.

    6 AM obs for Logan, wind gusting to near 52 mph already.

    Last Updated: Mar 2 2018, 5:54 am EST
    Fri, 02 Mar 2018 05:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Rain and Windy
    Temperature: 38.0 °F (3.3 °C)
    Dewpoint: 36.0 °F (2.2 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 93 %
    Wind: from the Northeast at 38.0 gusting to 51.8 MPH (33 gusting to 45 KT)
    Wind Chill: 24 F (-4 C)
    Visibility: 8.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 996.7 mb
    Altimeter: 29.43 in Hg

  6. TK – Yesterday I also asked regarding Pete’s in-house model. What exactly is an “in-house” model and do all tv stations have one?

    1. I don’t know myself but I heard it tends to overestimate snow amounts by 9″. Too early for this joke? HA.

    2. As far as I know, NECN / NBC Boston are the only local station with one.

      There are in-house models at some of the private weather companies in the area.

    1. It’s alarming to me how many model-huggers remain out there. Not saying the guy that sent the tweet is one because the context there may have just been discussing them. But it’s a reminder of how many folks hang on model runs and change their “forecast” with each one.

  8. So what’s the over/under my grill cover stays on with three large bricks on top… 🙂

      1. Funny the cover is fine but the grill physically moved which has never happened. Not only that I have two almost full propane tanks under it that didn’t prevent the move.

  10. So Tk is it a safe bet we don’t need to worry about snow in Boston this afternoon/ tonight. I wasn’t anyways but want to pass on correct information to the crew. Many thanks my friend .

    1. Odds don’t favor it. I know TK and mets have been saying the snowfall is the toughest aspect of the storm. I don’t think we can say 100% for sure it won’t snow enough for a call in, but the percentages are fairly high it won’t.

      1. Don’t think I need to worry about a call in as I’ll probably not be going home . We cover all storms .

      2. Agree . I’ll be passing the area over the weekend to check on a new customers house in brant rock right on the sea wall let me know if you need anything Tom .

  11. It’s interesting ….. at least right now, Boston into Essex County has the strongest winds. Perhaps that’s where the best pressure gradient exists at the moment ??

  12. In spite of temps in the 30s and a stiff wind/rain, it didn’t feel all that cold. Maybe I am now used to the winter chill at this stage of the season? Between walking and waiting for my bus, I didn’t feel all that uncomfortable.

  13. In addition to concern over people’s safety at the coast ….

    One big concern to me is if today’s midday tide compromises any parts of sea walls or barriers, what will then happen at tonight’s high tide ?? And I’m really worried about tonight’s major flooding taking place in the darkness of night. I hope people in flood prone areas have evacuated !!!

  14. Short range guidance continues to show a faster evolution and southward pull of the low. Let’s focus on the wind and coastal flooding and let the snow fall where it may. And it may not fall in many places.

    I’m mobile for the next 7 hours then back to the weather office…

  17. Wind whipping, chairs on patio have all been rearranged. There was a brief period where snow mixed with rain and then poof.

  19. Good morning and thank you TK. Heavy rain and wind in Coventry, CT with the temp already down to 33F. What this means for the timing of the potential change to snow I don’t know.

  20. The EPS and GEFS are pretty much irrelevant at this point for snow totals.

    Latest 12z HRRR has a 3-4 hour burst of snow at the end of the storm this across SE MA and RI with a few inches of accumulation. Not much elsewhere, even across Worcester County.

  21. Regarding the Nor’easter next week, the 6z GFS has it tracking right over us next Wed night:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018030206&fh=138

    Would be a snow to rain to snow scenario for us with all snow further inland.

    0z Euro track is more off shore with more snow closer to the coast but still p-type issues on the coast.

    Looks to be a progressive fast moving storm with no big snow totals anywhere but plenty of time to watch it.

    1. Correct that last statement – the GFS slows the storm down considerably when it hits the block in the Gulf of Maine so the jury is still out on that.

  23. I got snow flakes mixing in with the rain.
    I would not be surprised if this is like snowicane 2010 where just over the CT boarder in NY down south there getting accumulating.

  24. The highest wind gust I can find currently is 50 mph at block Island, RI

    And the wind down there is NNE

    Is this thing dropping South already????

  25. JJ, just saw a report that wet flakes are mixing in West Hartford of all places and Springfield is reporting sleet pellets.

  28. Mark the wind has picked up here. The snow flakes there were mixing in lasted for about five minutes.

  29. Moderate snow being reported in Albany and Poughkeepsie, right down on the valley floor. Also snowing in Pittsfield and North Adams. Mixed precip being reported even in Central Park, NYC.

      1. Not totally, the ski resorts in the Catskills will get up to two feet and the ski areas in the Berks and southern VT are cashing in as well. Mount Snow got 6″ overnight and is expecting another 5-8″ today.

    2. That would do the trick! The lower levels of the atmosphere are colder than progged yesterday, certainly way lower than what the GFS had. The thermals on that model suck!

      1. hey, perhaps we’re in for that surprise after all???

        Who knows.

        My face will be stuck to the Window from 1PM onward!! 😀 😀 😀

  32. So far, at least in Boston, tides are running about 2.2 feet above expected.
    9AM Boston height is 9.49 feet and should be 7.26 feet.

  33. It was 34 when I left my house in NE mass this morning at 7am. Unfortunately we don’t have the best dynamics with this storm for any snow, but it will be fun watching everything play out.

  35. Winds and sheets of rain are picking up here in Middleboro.
    Lights are staying on, no flickering.
    School dismissal will be interesting this afternoon.

    WATD in Marshfield is providing extensive coverage of the storm.
    They do a great job. Their meterologist, Rob Gilman, has done an excellent job of reporting and forecasting the storm for them.
    Here’s the link if you want to take a listen:
    http://959watd.com/

    2. Rob is excellent . I grew up in Marshfield in the fieldston area on ocean bluff numbered roads and he was on as a kid growing up . He is a great meteorologist.

  37. Just got word they are releasing the kids early here today due to “a significant shift in the latest forecast” What? Everything seems to be on track to me.

  39. At the current rate, Boston’s High tide “should” be around
    13.9 feet Instead of Predicted 11.66. I think that will be fine.

    Just saw a wind gust to 50 mph at Logan. Pretty windy, but not what was forecast.
    At least not yet. We shall see.

        1. Without having the knowledge you all have but watching tides during storms, I was thinking midnight also. I may be wrong, but it seems it will be difficult for the tides to recede as much as they typically would so they will have a higher starting point.

  40. I do think I see one sliver of good news for parts of the mass coastline. The wind is not 040 or 050. It’s currently 025. May help north shore and even Boston harbor a bit.

  43. I find it interesting to watch TWC meteorologists in scituate observe the tides.

    I’m thinking Jim Cantore can appreciate the large New England tide changes, but it must be an interesting experience for them to see. I think much of their experiences with storm surge are in the Gulf and the southeast Coast where tidal ranges are only 1 to 6 ft, compared to the current 13ft tidal range with these astronomical tides.

    I wonder if they understand how fast the tide actually rises, separate or the storm surge.

  47. I am watching Tim Kelley on NECN in the teacher prep room.
    He mentioned thunderstorms and thundersnow later.
    Also said that the waves will continue to be monsters and an issue
    after the storm departs due in part to the European storms from this week.

  48. It is going to be interesting as to how potent next week’s event will be with the current one so strong that it doesn’t zap much of the potential energy out of the atmosphere for awhile. Meteorologically speaking, this can occur sometimes, correct?

  50. Boston tide height currently 12.26 feet as of 9:42 AM. Still 1 1/2 hours from this
    time to high tide. I am thinking that it now tops 14 feet.

    There is sure to be coastal flooding in some locations.

  51. Wind gust to 55 mph at New Haven, CT. I have not seen one over 60, but that
    does not mean there hasn’t been.

  52. Saw picture of tree down in New Haven. No surprise with wind gusts out there.
    Snow flakes once again mixing in where I am. Will see if this is the complete flip or like before it will go back to rain.

  53. So far in my part of Woburn…windy, yes (grill cover is still on so I know the winds have been stronger in other storms…so far)…rain, yes. Hard to tell but doesn’t feel like a downpour, but might be because of the wind.

  55. Latest 14Z HRRR has 850mb temps go below 0C at the coast around 19Z. previous
    run was 21Z. 14Z RAP has it at 21Z

    19Z = 2PM

    NAM had 18Z or 1PM.

    GFS out in a few minutes.

  56. Look, I know there are some trees down, but I have to be honest here.

    I am NOT impressed with the wind so far. Not in the slightest.

    So far routine N’oreaster winds.

    Can or will this change this afternoon? I dunno

    1. Thought the wind might strengthen up in the early afternoon. I know there are flight cancellations at Logan.

    2. Nice 10:05 am NWS update on what they expect to cause further increase in the winds.

      Still, even currently, as the widespread area of wind that’s causing problems st the coast, even though an individual max wind gust isn’t high off the charts.

      1. Thanks TOM.

        Here is the text:

        Damaging wind…

        Winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph with a few higher gusts this
        morning. Strongest gusts will occur this afternoon into this
        evening when low level lapse rates increase in response to
        cooling low levels. Expect gusts 60-70 mph across eastern MA
        into RI with potential for 70-80 mph gusts SE coastal MA and
        Cape/Islands later today and this evening within the core of
        the low level jet.

    3. I agree JpDave. We have seen these storms many times. I know its not over yet by any means, but the outlets calling this thing historic before it even started I had a huge issue with

    4. I didn’t think it was supposed to be more than it is away from coast. It seemed to me that the wind would be high – possible hurricane force – but the flooding was the real concern.

      Meanwhile, and not to diminish damage along the coast that truly worries me, from a Sutton point of view, I absolutely love this weather.

  57. 12Z GFS has 850mb temps below 0C almost to the coast by 1PM and well off shore
    by 4PM. What that means below that level???? who knows

    1. Snow maps show ZILCH.
      Therfore the GFS is seeing something below 850MB.
      Warm 925 mb level? Big boundary layer issues?
      Thermal profiles messed up?
      You pick one. There is some reason why it shows NO snow

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conusncep.php?run=2018030212&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=009

      If this is true, it “should” be snowing

      Here’s a hint. Look at this 2M temp map Freezing line in Canada.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conusncep.php?run=2018030212&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=009

      Unlike the other models, GFS has the 925mb layer waaaaay too warm for snow. It may come down as snow through the 850mb layer and below, but
      when it hits the 925 mb layer or so, it’s MELTORAMA!!!

      http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018030212/006/925th.us_ne.png

      2. Dave – the GFS thermal profiles are completely screwed up, as they were with the last snow event. The temps in the lower levels are verifying 5-10F colder than what the GFS has been projecting. Toss it!!

  60. I think I read that there were more than 450 Logan cancellations today. (I don’t know what the norm is.)

  61. With 20 minutes to high tide, the harbor gauge is at 14.09 ft.

    A couple tenths more tide rise plus whatever additional surge can add on in next 20 minutes. Guessing a max out btwn 14.3 and 14.7 ft

      2. The Link Tom gave you will allow you to click on
        Scituate harbor, however, there is no data available currently.
        I do not know why. Perhaps you will have better luck.

  62. I work in Oxford ma right at the mass pike. Snow starting to mix in. We’ll see if it’s just temporary or not

      1. Don’t see snow but the wind is constant and rain is wind driven.

        I would also think the soft ground may come into play with trees coming down.

      1. I texted my wife in Holden about 20 miles north and 600 feet or so higher. Haven’t heard yet. Will let you know

  63. From Weatheroptics.
    New model guidance takes the central low pressure of the #noreaster down to 968 mb by the mid-afternoon. That is equivalent to a category 2 hurricane.

  66. Vicki I have been teased with snow flakes mixing in with the rain. I am still waiting to see when the complete flip to snow happens. My part of Litchfield County is under a winter weather advisory but the Northern part of the county has a winter storm warning where they could get 6 plus inches of wet snow. The biggest thing here has been the wind gusts so far.

  72. Not to rain on the snow parade …. logans up to 41 with a dew point of 39. It’s going to be several hours in the eastern half with this boundary layer,which is still slightly warming.

    1. Yes, that is true, However, once the 850 mb temps crash, even at 41 with it could go fairly quickly. The problem, however, isn’t the surface, that could be 50+ and still flip quickly. Rather, It is the first couple or 3 thousand feet from the surface that is too warm. That can take some doing to cool.

  75. Moderate to heavy rain w/winds that at this time go from approx. 15 mph and gusts to 40 mph or so in Sudbury. We had to take our kitty to vet earlier for check up. At that time the issue was the wind. A large branch fell on the Framingham/Sudbury line. Big puddles in road.

    Sorry, Vicki – I am hoping we don’t lose our electricity. In the summer, don’t mind so much. Also, lots of trees around our house – hope they stay upright!

  78. We have roads and parking lots under water in North Quincy from the marsh flooding. Some folks tried to drive through it and got stuck.

    1. Luckily many moved their cars out of those parking lots in time. I feel for those whose houses are right in the water with waves and the flooding. Hopefully they got to higher ground.

  80. There is a new FB page called The Rock Weather (humarock). The individual who runs it seems very knowledgeable. I shared the link to here with him. He has one awesome photo at the top of the page.

  83. We should probably let the storm occur before we verify it. 😉

    Peak has yet to arrive. I outlined everything in my blog post.

  87. Impressive Wind Gust at Dulles Airport
    JUST IN: #Dulles Airport gusted to 71 mph at 11:39am

  88. All noon observations have ALL stations in CT with due north winds. Does that mean the low is now east of there?

      1. Vicki I suspect your rental is also facing serious issues tonight it’s right on the water correct

        1. It is directly between the ocean and the river. But it is raised a considerable amount. It was not damaged in January…other than the driveway being washed away but that happens yearly.

          1. Being raised is great . This will be worse than the January one having 3 high tide cycles . I hope it makes it through ok . Lots of house went on stilts after October no name storm

            1. I do understand it is worse. I am hoping for the best also. I will call the owner later this weekend. Houses that wanted insurance had to go on stilts. If they are not raised, they cannot have flood insurance. The house I rent ended up in the river (literally) during 1991 storm. It was much smaller but still……

              Tom’s latest info re tides continuing to rise even after high tide (even though that does happen) is quite concerning for the midnight tide. At least to me it is.

              1. It is very concerning especially being overnight . I’m hearing reports water has already crossed ocean street to Plymouth ave my old neighborhood.

    2. Yes indeed mark very rough night down this way . Things will be looking different come tomorrow unfortunately.

  91. Snow to the west of me near NY boarder and to the northwest of me. At times flakes mixing in but mostly rainorama. So close to accumulating snow yet so far.

  92. Son said a good part of the city is flooding. I am assuming he means along the water of course.

  93. At the time Boston reached 14.67 ft, the storm surge was 3.01 ft

    Currently, the tide is 13.32 ft, but the storm surge differential is UP to 3.15 ft which is why they are thinking the overnight tide has the potential to end up higher.

  94. Report from someone on AmericanWx in Downtown Boston…

    … absolutely amazing conditions downtown.

    Drove by Seaport area from a conference… street signs flying off and spiraling for blocks… people barely able to stand… some of the most intense winds I have ever experienced in downtown Boston

      1. Shot right down from the old rexacana ballroom . My cousin has a house corner of 13th rd and ocean bluff

  100. On the 1pm Obs …. it’s interesting to note many pressure tendencies rising while cape cod and south coast pressures are falling.

    So, perhaps a sign the pressure gradient to tighten up the next few hrs and the wind to ramp up ?

  102. Surge differential up to 3.36 ft and climbing quickly. The tide is just not being allowed to drop fast, like it should be.

    I wonder what the record surge differential is for Boston harbor ?

  103. Some of the areas in Humarock are reporting that this tide was not as bad as January.

    I stress that this is some as it seems many wisely left that remained in January.

  104. wife just told me we lost power in Groveland….downed trees on the power lines. Here in Kendall square the wind is pretty intense….there are about a half dozen broken umbrellas in the outdoor trash bin across the street

    1. Makes me glad I have underground utilities…of course – somewhere along the line – it must come back up ha.

    1. I know a lot of people on here would love that but man…that’s a depressing site to me. At least it happened on a Friday in terms of cleaning up!

      1. That is the NBC Boston remote Doppler. Matt Noues said this morning they stationed it there for today’s storm. That’s what they call it.

  110. SSK, Tom, is that Plymouth Ave Marshfield? Near the Fieldston? Isn’t that on the other side of 139 from the ocean or do I have the wrong area?

    1. Nope you are correct my old neighborhood. It starts right before 13th rd or right after the old BP gas station on right and ends at the brantrock market

          1. I believe so my house was between 8th & 7th rd . It crossed for 78, it crossed for no name

          2. Probably because once the splash over gets over the highest point of all those numbered streets, it then barrels downhill their slopes right onto 139.

    1. 3.58 ft surge differential and climbing.

      The wind has ramped up big time last 45 minutes !!!!

        1. Yes. So, they did expect to be this evening at low tide, potentially up to 5 !!!!! Ft and we’re certainly seeing that surge build up fast now.

          So, we’re counting on the wind coming around to northerly to help let some of the surge ease by midnight.

          But, the front end of tonight’s tide is going to be brutal. Minor Flooding may resume 4 hrs prior to high tide as we see the apex of the surge this evening. To make matters worst, the waves will be significantly larger.

          Sandwich, Plymouth, Barnstable could be catastrophic as the wind goes more NNE. South shore major.

  115. This was the scene outside my office in quincy earlier. Cars kept having to be moved and the street was a lake.

      4. You are close by to where I am. It was crazy. Haven’t seen it like that in the 18 years I’ve worked in this area.

  116. It’s small, but the wind at the harbor buoy has actually veered a bit from around 025 to 033, a bit more onshore. Meanwhile, the column is cooling in western New England. The next few hrs should see the wind ramp up.

  117. I just watched a jeep pulled out of a road that was starting to collapse in Brant Rock. Others in Sandwich running a blocked area where the ocean was coming over the road.

    What in heavens name is wrong with people?

  119. The marsh has water flowing into our neighborhood. It’s not serious, but that usually doesn’t happen.

  122. Looking over the HRRR and the RAP 18Z runs just completed
    and further checking out the 850 mb temps and the 925 MB temps.
    The Column has started to cool already and is even being reflected at the surface.
    Temperature at my house has fallen from 43 to 41.7 in the last 1/2 hour or so.

    I fully EXPECT a change over to SNOW IN Boston by “about” 5PM.

    1. Noth 850 mb and 925 mb temps projected to be below freezing starting
      about 4PM or shortly thereafter.

  123. I see these echos moving Westward and then they turn yellow?
    Did they really increase in intensity OR rather does it reflect mixing with snow and/or sleet and thus resulting in stronger echos?? Seems that way.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25333650&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      1. I don’t think so. I’ll compare with Logan when all is said and done. I have been pretty happy with the accuracy of this
        rain gauge.

        We shall see.

        1. According to NEXRAD radar total precip view (not sure how accurate that is) its approaching 2” in much of eastern MA

          1. Like you said not sure how accurate that is.
            If my gauge is whacked out, I’ll just have to
            recalibrate it. Don’t like to do that because it
            simply takes too long.

  126. The house is shaking. The LLJ is fully mixing now. I wouldn’t be surprised if we just gusted to 60 or more !!

  127. Temp still dropping at home, very slowly mind you. Down to 41.5
    Low enough to start seeing very wet snow flakes mixing in. Now IF it would only
    do so.

  129. Temps 42-48 across eastern MA, 36-42 central MA, about in the expected range with a little milder far to the southeast.

    Some mix in the Worcester Hills. Snow confined to far western MA and eastern NY. I explained that the LLJ would interrupt the cooling further east. Indeed it is.

    If a mix/change makes it to Boston, my guess is between 6PM and 8PM and then it goes back to rain as the intensity lightens up and everything shifts to the south.

    The big story continues to be the wind and coastal flooding.

  130. Just can’t get that switch to snow. It has remained just west of me most of the day. I have been teased twice with snow flakes. Amazing for a small state CT is where you have a snowstorm going in part of the state and a rain storm other parts of the state.

  134. We are up to 40 degrees. 1.25 rain and wind gusting up to low 30s….half of what you are seeing, Tom. Wow.

    1. That will be a tough snow removal with this being a wet snow and I would imagine there are lot of power outages in Upstate NY considering how heavy the snow is weighing down on trees and power lines.

  140. Browsing the net only to see so many people calling this storm “disappointing”? Again, what are people looking for? Basically almost every aspect of the storm, with very few exceptions, were forecast correctly by most media and the NWS, obviously with a good number of hours still left in the event.

    Also, what is the public’s OBSESSION with trying to verify events before they are barely half over or not even started yet? I just DO NOT get that.

    1. This forecast is verified it’s bad out . My big truck is shaking trying to get on 93 by South Bay . Traffic isn’t moving

    2. We live in age where sensationalism sells and when it comes to the weather, they want storms to over-achieve because it is sensational.

      1. But are people that stupid that they fall for it over and over? Nevermind. I know the answer. 😛

        I’m in tell-it-like-it-is mode. In other words, “sorry not sorry”. 😉

  142. most inland locations are just experiancing a rain storm with some wind. Nothing special. Snowfall in the higher elevations in the moderate range. Not much more than a early march storm. Its drizzling here not really raining. I feel if we had heavier precip we might be getting some mixing involved.

    1. It was always a stretch for the dynamic cooling. Too many people looked at the NAM and just bought it. JMA mentioned putting less emphasis on model output and more on meteorology. There was a lot to be learned here by discussions put out by NWS. They did a great job explaining why this was not going to turn into a big snowstorm for most of the region, but everybody kept looking for a way to believe it would happen. For most of the region, while there has been some uncertainty about the snow aspect, the clearly biggest influence was not going to be snow.

      1. Your are 100% correct.

        Although it is OK for us bloggers to look for a way for the snow
        to happen (I plead guilty to that charge), it is quite another for a professional Met to do so.

        2. The bloggers are free to do what they want. I’m more speaking about the met’s, and the non-met’s that have their readers fooled into thinking they can actually forecast weather accurately.

      2. Great comment, Sir TK. I never expected snow. If any appeared, I figured it would be minimal. It always seemed to be the winds and the high tides. The winds certainly lived up to their expectations, even inland. But again, they were more of a concern along the coast. It seems to me it was very well forecast. It certainly was well forecast on this blog.

  143. Wind is more sporadic here after a fairly significant burst about 30 minutes ago. I thought the flag pole across the street was going to topple. 1.4 inch of rain.

  144. I know we aren’t focused on next week…but…

    Will it be like this? Please tell me no.

    1. nothing certain possibly a much needed colder system with snow for the region :D…. possibly

    1. 1.5 mile from me. Seems like only minor injury for the mom. I’m getting updates from a local news guy / photographer I’m friends with.

  149. Back to all rain in Manchester CT. The firehose off the Atlantic is too much to overcome. Rain/snow line in western CT is not advancing.

    Meanwhile…….the snow totals that are going to come out of Eastern NY are going to be astronomical. Three feet in Schoharie County and the Catskills and still pounding….

  150. Yup, I GIVE UP on the snow. It was nice thinking about it, but doesn’t appear to
    be happening.

    Btw, precip is retreating. Have a look at the Portland radar. 😀

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=GYX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25333784&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Then Boston

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25333787&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Not sure how much time is left.

    1. It could snow at those temps. What was missing was it being cold enough above with enough intensity in precip combined with that.

  153. Finally the flip to snow has happened where I am. The snow area just west of me all day finally shifted a little bit to t the east.

  154. Just lost power . I’m in hardware store in neighborhood as soon as I walked in it went the entire center & home .

  155. Phrase of the day: Meteorology, not Modelology. 😉

    By the way WeatherWiz I’ll be focusing on the next system tomorrow but still feel that system will be unlike this in terms of intensity/flooding/wind/rain, but will have colder air to work with.

    1. Yeah the blind modelogogy, ignoring of meteorology, obsession with snowfall, and lack of attention regarding wind and flooding is a black eye on the profession as far as I am concerned.

      A dominant W trough E ridge. No cold Canadian high, no northerly ageostrophic flow, temps generally above freezing at the surface and above, the BL temps not likely to be overstated in such a set up, yet there were experienced meteorologists who ignored these synoptic factors and went hard on snow at the expense of highlighting the more significant impacts for the areas where most people live.

      I knew we were swirling down a drain when I saw a respected TV met post that the most similar storm to this one was April 1, 1997. The synoptic set up was so far different that any 1st year meteorology student could have aced the exam of listing the differences.

      I know most weather fanatics love snow, but as professionals we must be better.

      2. I was bothered by the snow predictions and weighting toward that as well because even if we believed or even realized the highest ranges of 6-12″ I saw for the Worcester hills, I kept thinking to myself, that’s not really a big deal. I mean, 6-12″ of wet snow in march is hardly special and barely noteworthy in the chronicles of Worcester hills late season heavy wet snow. I had to read the NWS write up last night to be like, man, the story here is the coast. Even for rayno who i really like, treated it like a footnote in the videos I watched.

  156. Why did someone on one of the TV stations say the high tide is rapidly approaching? It’s still going out and about to be low. *FACEPALM* (again)

  157. I’ve been at my house in Lakeville for 14 years and I’ve never seen anything like this. Trees down everywhere. The wind driven rain just exploits any weakness in our house. It’s scary to sit here and listen to what’s going on.

    1. That is rough. I hope it’s not too bad when it’s over and you can recover.

  162. Multiple manhole explosions in downtown Taunton about 90 minutes ago.
    Most of Middleboro without power.
    Winds probably at their highest speeds here (Taunton) right now.

  163. wet snow in plymouth between exit 2-3, tree across the driveway, snow plow will be a tree plow also to get to work tomorrow

    1. Yes. It went to moderation. I’ll get rid of that and post it with just first.

    1. That link also shows a max gust of 63 mph for Logan up through 6:54 PM.

      Also the barometer is now rising.

  168. Boston tide is currently 4.18 feet of where it should be now.
    What will that translate at midnight.

    IF it stays that then it would be 10.94 + 4.18 or 15.12 !!!

    AND if the overage continues to rise, then it could become even higher.
    This tide WILL cause problems. This afternoon was only 14.67 feet. I say only. Bad enough. Bur over 15 feet! YIKES!

    btw, temp has dropped to 38 here.

    1. Several folks from Humarock are saying today’s tide was not as bad as January. But all are concerned about tonight’s

  169. Turns out my quick power loss today was because of that lady who got hit by the tree in Woburn. Guess it happened right up the street from me and they had to kill the power for a few.

    1. To my dismay, we have power. And I cannot hear wind in the house. I am considering sitting out on deck

  171. the wind died off in south Plymouth, almost like the eye of the storm and now they are starting up again

      1. short lived I will see it about 15 minutes before you, stay safe .
        I have family right on the coast line there.

  172. Lights flickering for first time ever in this house. Everyone…please keep fingers crossed

  174. The weather guys on various news stations keep saying that it’s snowing on the south coast. So far it’s been just rain and an incredible amount of wind here.

    1. Where are you reporting from . It’s a war zone here in pembroke wires & trees down everywhere . No power since 5 and I know it’s out for the night

        1. I guess it could be worse. I feel guilty worrying about my problems with the situation on the coast. Today though was the first time I’ve ever felt unsafe in my home. That’s a feeling I don’t really want to have again.

          1. That gave me pause. I cannot imagine how that felt. Big hugs to you and all. And you should never feel guilty about a concern for safety.

      4. Our power has been out since 12:15. We have had the generator on since about 6 and have been running the heat up ever since. Cops are blocking the road not far from us so it can’t be pretty out there. Multiple trees down in my small neighborhood alone.

        1. We sleep downstairs during a nor easter because of a big old pine tree in the back yard , front of the house faces south , don’t have the heart to cut it down , shade tree in the summer .

          1. I feel you. We finally gave in and took down 4 scary pines a few years ago. Sleeping upstairs while scary is our best option on a night like tonight because that’s where all the heat has gathered.

  175. Travel ban in effect in marshfield. I’m thinking due to trees falling and the next tide arriving.

  176. Lots of trees down in North Attleboro and power has been out at my house for 7 hours. Starting to get chilly but everyone is safe here. My wife works at the Wrentham outlets and they are still open and she is there tonight. Keep safe everyone.

      1. Thanks. No sumo pump electric but fortunately it is ok right now. There are people who have it far worse right now and I hope everyone especially close to the shore is safe tonight for the next tide cycle.

  177. Boston harbor still showing a +3.89 ft surge.

    Wind still holding at 030.

    Tide at 8 ft, when it should be 4.1 ft.

  178. I hate to jinx things but it would seem winds have calmed a bit over the last hour. We still get some real good gusts but they are not as frequent or as house shaking. The TV isn’t cutting out as much either. During those killer gusts it was really breaking up.

  180. I just saw a percentage chart for area towns 96% of pembroke is without power . That is a lot

  183. Power has been back on in hroveland…started to mix with snow about 45 minutes ago and is transitioning towards all snow at 37 degrees

  184. 36 and still raining here. Meanwhile its snowing in Salisbury, MD, Dover, DE and the entire state of NJ. LOL.

  186. Despite the lack of snow and significant wind damage here in my area, I’ll have to say that this storm was beyond impressive. The damage reports and photos coming in are insane, not to mention the snow blitz that occurred just to our west in Eastern NY where some towns are approaching 40″ of snow.

    I hope everyone is staying safe.

  187. Public Information Statement
    Spotter Reports
    National Weather Service Taunton MA
    808 PM EST Fri Mar 02 2018

    The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 5
    hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
    is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
    spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
    on our home page at weather.gov/boston

    ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

    LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
    SNOWFALL OF
    /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

    MASSACHUSETTS

    …Hampshire County…
    Plainfield 12.0 545 PM 3/02 Social Media

    ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

    LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
    RAINFALL OF
    /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

    CONNECTICUT

    …Hartford County…
    Wethersfield 1.83 421 PM 3/02 Ham Radio

    …Tolland County…
    Staffordville 1.35 341 PM 3/02 Co-Op Observer

    …Windham County…
    Thompson 2.80 700 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

    MASSACHUSETTS

    …Bristol County…
    Taunton 2.90 531 PM 3/02 Official NWS Obs

    …Middlesex County…
    Lexington 1.39 514 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    Tewksbury 1.37 421 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    PEPPERELL 1.23 510 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

    …Norfolk County…
    Randolph 3.88 705 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    North Weymouth 2.80 712 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    Millis 2.50 412 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

    …Plymouth County…
    East Bridgewater 5.74 749 PM 3/02 General Public
    Marion 2.90 508 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

    …Suffolk County…
    West Roxbury 2.83 744 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

    RHODE ISLAND

    …Providence County…
    East Providence 2.60 503 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    North Providence 2.25 630 PM 3/02 NONE
    Burrillville 2.10 450 PM 3/02 General Public
    north providence 1.58 440 PM 3/02 General Public

    ***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

    LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
    GUST OF
    MPH MEASUREMENT

    CONNECTICUT

    …Hartford County…
    Bristol 51 325 PM 3/02 800 feet AGL
    HFD Hartford-Brainar 46 322 PM 3/02 ASOS
    BDL Bradley Arpt 45 518 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Windham County…
    IJD Willimantic Arpt 45 426 PM 3/02 ASOS

    MASSACHUSETTS

    …Barnstable County…
    Barnstable 93 604 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    East falmouth 92 515 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    Wellfleet 91 641 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    Woods Hole 88 507 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    Orleans 75 552 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    HYA Hyannis Arpt 74 517 PM 3/02 ASOS
    Brewster 66 530 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    CQX Chatham Arpt 54 342 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Bristol County…
    EWB New Bedford Arpt 60 432 PM 3/02 ASOS
    TAN Taunton Arpt 55 324 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Dukes County…
    Oak Bluffs 88 554 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    Vineyard Haven 75 606 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    Edgartown 74 536 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    MVY Marthas Vineyard 66 558 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Essex County…
    Marblehead 61 530 PM 3/02 NONE
    Salem 60 344 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    BVY Beverly Arpt 56 613 PM 3/02 ASOS
    LWM Lawrence Arpt 55 316 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Hampden County…
    BAF Westfield-Barnes 51 321 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Middlesex County…
    Wakefield 60 658 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    BED Bedford Arpt 59 645 PM 3/02 ASOS
    Lexington 41 312 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

    …Nantucket County…
    Nantucket 90 717 PM 3/02 Ham Radio

    …Norfolk County…
    OWD Norwood Arpt 56 611 PM 3/02 ASOS
    Randolph 50 607 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

    …Plymouth County…
    Scituate 80 743 PM 3/02 Fire Dept/Rescue
    Plymouth 76 545 PM 3/02 Ham Radio
    PYM Plymouth Arpt 70 631 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Suffolk County…
    BOS Logan Airport 70 532 PM 3/02 ASOS
    West Roxbury 45 744 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

    …Worcester County…
    ORH Worcester Arpt 49 454 PM 3/02 ASOS
    FIT Fitchburg Arpt 36 312 PM 3/02 ASOS

    RHODE ISLAND

    …Kent County…
    PVD TF Green Arpt 64 358 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Newport County…
    UUU Newport Arpt 61 346 PM 3/02 ASOS

    …Providence County…
    North Providence 51 630 PM 3/02 NONE

    …Washington County…
    WST Westerly Arpt 56 444 PM 3/02 ASOS

    ***********************SUSTAINED WIND***********************

    LOCATION WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
    SPEED OF
    MPH MEASUREMENT

    MASSACHUSETTS

    …Barnstable County…
    East falmouth 61 515 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
    Sandwich 48 630 PM 3/02 HADS

    …Dukes County…
    Oak Bluffs 55 554 PM 3/02 Ham Radio

    RHODE ISLAND

    …Bristol County…
    Bristol 54 630 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

  188. My phone says it’s snowing but when I go out it’s not snowing or raining. Technology…

  190. Regarding the midweek storm, 18z GFS is a coastal hugger with a snow to rain scenario for SNE while the 12z Euro is just off shore with it. Blend them together and we have a nice snowstorm.

    Both models continue to advertise the large storm threat around 3/12-13 as well.

    1. You know the drill. We’ll be watching the typical run-to-run variation and occasional consistency.

  192. We have a mix of rain and snow here in Woburn now – mainly rain but bursts of wet flakes at times. The only place left that could get a covering is southwest of Boston.

  194. A disturbance in eastern Canada may get pulled into the circulation of the storm and produce some snow showers/squalls with some minor accumulation here on Sunday evening. Just something to keep in mind if you are traveling.

  195. Mostly snow here with some rain mixed in here JP now. Way too little way too late, but it was an interesting storm just the same.

    1. We are 34 and white also. I didn’t think the snow would stick with the warmer temps and wet ground…silly me

  199. I really hope the next two storms give areas west of I95 some good snows. so WAWA can get some good snowfall, hoping to get up to Okemo Sunday.

    1. The mountains in the Berks and Southern VT did well with this storm. Heading up to Magic Mtn tomorrow. They got a foot of new snow as did Stratton. It’s a nice little old school mountain with some steep challenging terrain. Got to go on powder days like these though or it is no good as the mountain has very little snowmaking.

  200. Snowed for about an hour here and went back to rain and then quit.
    Temp up to 40. Total rain 1.41 inches.
    never lost power.

    Huge tree down 2 blocks over from us.

          1. For now. Just went to Lowe’s and got two backups until I get in touch with the basement drain folks that aren’t there when I need them. You pay through the roof to have the underground drains put in and then they are no where to be found when the lifetime guarantee pump fails. This is the second time in 6 years.

            Lowe’s didn’t have much left.

            1. National company or a local place? I used B-Dry two houses ago and a local guy in my last house. I had so so service with each but I think B-Dry was a bit better.

              1. Valuedry. Apparently they piled out of New England and have one technician for this area now. Tree fell on his truck and they can come out Thursday! I am beyond irritated. I disconnected it to see if something was stuck in the bottom and water came down the discharge hose at me. I plugged the pump in and it ran ok. Used a snake to unclog the pvc discharge hose. Not sure what was blocking as it flushed out when I reconnected. Saves me 350 dollars. They also told me the fee is not 189 anymore it is now 360? I asked why it doubled and she said that due to changes in the economy. Needless to say the president of the company is calling me Monday. It has been working fine now for 90 minutes :).

  202. Boy would I like to lock in that 0z GFS run!
    Nor’easter after nor’easter after nor’easter.
    This Wednesday 3/7, Monday 3/12, and a St Patty’s Day 966mb bomb on 3/17-18

    Interesting times ahead….do we have a front AND back loaded winter??

  203. In our neighborhood not much damage; a few branches here and there that fell. Haven’t been out so can’t say what the rest of town looks like. We did lose power yesterday for about an hour. I really feel bad for those who lost power for a long time and for those who still are without power. And for all who had to get evacutated; for those who lost homes, etc. And to think we could get more storms that might have the potential to be like this one? Interesting to follow these storms; but not good all-around. I remember in the day when storms were forecasted and we “missed them”. Wish we could miss any more bad storms that might come up this month.

    1. I hear ya. Would rather be the windshield than the bug…we were the bug yesterday for sure.

  204. Good morning all. I hope everyone stayed safe during the storm. My neighborhood is an absolute disaster. Had a very large tree fall in my yard which ripped a corner of the house siding off as well as all of the electric and cable wires. Very thankful it fell at an angle and not straight or the result could have been much worse than what we are dealing with. Had to drive into work this morning and hit detours at every turn I took. The entire town of Halifax is without power. 22 our bank branches are without power at this point. This storm meant business for sure.

    1. Good morning, Sue. It is always nice to see you here. It is good the tree didn’t do more damage, but it certainly seems to have done enough. Is your family staying home or headed to your moms? How did your moms area do?

  205. So sorry to hear about what many people here have gone through! My best to all and stay safe.

  206. I hope everyone is safe this morning. I have not had a chance to see how bad the midnight high tide was. When I fell asleep, the hope was it would not be as high as anticipated. I sure hope that is the case. Just an awful storm that certainly lived up to what was forecast. If the storms down the road material, it seems March will be a lion and not just come in like one.

  207. I’ll take the block now instead of for two months in the spring. Get it over with early if we can.

  208. http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLfSKvmZpaYewAB1Bx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTEyZ2FpZGhmBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjQzMTJfMQRzZWMDc3I-/RV=2/RE=1520110128/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fma.usharbors.com%2fmonthly-tides%2fglobal%2fBoston%2520Harbor/RK=2/RS=eEoqxswdIIQxy6zVDGu42XDVGLA-
    If we’re going to have another onshore wind event, having it next weekend would be better. Look at the evening tide around the 10th or 11th, a height of 8ft. This afternoons tide is 11.5 ft. These storms have hit all the astronomical highest tides.

    Then, the following weekend on st Patrick’s day is higher tides with the new moon.

    Every strong storm this winter has hit the very high astronomical tides. Usually doesn’t line up that way every time.

    2. Great photo TK and really tells the story about the wave action this Noreaster produced.

  212. Just saw a live photo of Marshfield on 7. Your wind is still amazing. I didn’t realize you were still having precip either. This thing just doesn’t want to let go. Ugh

  214. Boston’s tide surge is still about 2 1/2 feet. Last night’s Tide height was 13.87 feet,
    almost a full foot less than the day’s high, which is a good thing. Not sure
    about other locations.

  215. Man, the shawsheen river has filled to the old river bank. Maybe two feet left till the lower levels of the street see water in their yards.
    the other side of the street lost power last night, we had power, but that wind was howling. Still a bit windy but not really sustained.

    Looking ahead. Up to 4 events showing up.
    First one a small one Sunday night like TK alluded too, then middle of the week then monday/tuesday of the following week. Interesting that some have good placement but there are still boundary level issues. They also look much weaker in terms of wind, good thing for the coast, problem I see happening is that the Ocean is going to remain angry for the foreseeable future making any storms have coastal issues but not at the extant of this storm.

  216. Hey guys have no idea how the coast made out I’m in and out of reception it worked last night. Lost power at 5 last night and it’s still out . At last check most of the town is out . Trees are down everywhere one massive one two doors down blocking that end of streets. I haven’t seen this many trees down from a storm in the 10 yrs I’ve been in Pembroke. Still windy but no comparison to last night . Tom hope you made out good as well as you all . Storm performance was what they said very bad system for lots of areas

    2. Still travel ban in marshfield. I do not know if they declared a SOE. Duxbury and scituate have a small percent with power and both have SOEs.

      Stay safe SSK…do you have trees down?

    1. No surprise there. This beast was making a bee-line for that area. This is the strong block at work.

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