Sunday Forecast

108 Comments

12:41PM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)
A blocking pattern will be in control of the weather the next several days (and beyond) with a stormy pattern continuing. An upper level disturbance will move north to south out of Canada on its way to being absorbed by the large offshore storm which is still producing rough surf and large ocean swells along the coast. This will result in a minor accumulating snow event tonight. Dry weather returns during Monday and continues through Tuesday but the next storm system arrives via the Midwest by the middle of the week and will bring an assortment of precipitation, the specific type(s) and amount for each location remains to be determined. Snow will be more involved than in the last event, however. This upcoming midweek event will not result in coastal flooding issue or wind issues anything like what was just experienced. Forecast details…
THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. An isolated rain or snow shower possible. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers evening. A period of snow moving northeast to southwest across the region overnight with accumulations of a coating to 1 inch likely, and locally up to 2 inches possible, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Lows 31-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering light snow showers possible through mid morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 38-44. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: A storm of snow/mix/rain is likely. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Lingering snow/rain showers. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)
Blocking pattern remains in place. A disturbance following the midweek storm may prolong a snow shower threat through March 9. Next storm threat looms in the March 12-13 window.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)
Blocking pattern remains in place. One or two system may impact the region but the overall trend looks like they will be weaker.

108 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK
    From Ed Vallee. Now we wait on 12z EURO
    New UKMET: absolutely classic crush job as low pressure rapidly strengthens while passing just inside the 40/70 benchmark

  3. Thanks TK. I’ve returned to Plymouth, NH after spending the past couple days in Albany. It was a much different storm out there than in SNE. Was all about the snow in that area, a foot of heavy, wet snow in Albany itself. That was very much unexpected. The forecast was for only a couple of inches, mainly rain otherwise. Everyone was caught off guard. NWS issued a short fused winter storm warning around 3AM Friday, well after significant accumulation had begun. Some higher terrain to the west exceeded 30″ of snow.

    As expected, in SNE, it was all about the wind and coastal flooding. The wind damage was quite impressive. I think more trees down than I’ve ever seen in a storm here. Coastal flooding was certainly bad as well. Crazy as it seems, I think we really lucked out in the coastal flood department though. It goes back to a couple things I talked about before the storm: timing and astronomical tides. Had everything evolved 6 or so hours sooner, that astronomically high midday Friday tide could’ve been catastrophic. Alternatively, had the timing been as it was and had that Friday night tide been as astronomically high as the ones on either side of it, again, that could’ve been potentially catastrophic. It’s a testament to these two strokes of luck that few if any areas actually recorded “major” coastal flooding in the technical sense. Beach erosion (different than coastal flooding) was very bad. That was not mitigated much by these factors. All in all, a very, very impressive storm. Events like that are why blocking patterns generate the mystique that they do.

  4. Thanks TK! Any early thoughts as to the timeframe of the most significant precip for the midweek event?

        1. Medium duration as something may linger into Thursday, but despite the blocking pattern, it won’t really stop the storm from moving. The last one, the way it developed, had to loop cyclonically. This one does not. The block is really determining the position of upper features and in turn the surface ones.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    I don’t think the coast will see much snow from the mid-week event, even if it becomes a benchmark storm. Temperatures remain marginal at best. Though it won’t be mild or warm I’d still be surprised if Boston gets below 32F all week. This said, the interior could see some snow. And, interior can be defined broadly to mean metro-west, metro-north, and beyond.

  7. The final total rainfall for Logan was 2.30″. The climo data earlier had 1.17″ which I thought was way to low but I assumed that Logan simply underachieved which is clearly now not the case and came in right into the forecasted 2-4+ inch range. Makes me even more grateful that my basement stayed dry.

    1. Although it would have been interesting if Boston had come in on the higher end of that range…different scenario? Glad I will never know. 😉

  8. Looking ahead… the midweek storm is tricky. It’s definitely a “storm pattern”, but a potentially messy evolution. Miller B storm type, but with some complications relating to some smaller scale features in the pattern. The coastal low will be in a bit of a competition for space and energy. As a result, not a particularly strong coastal low being modeled. Maybe around 985mb at our latitude, but in an environment of fairly low background pressures so no sharp pressure gradient. Rain/snow line will likely be an issue for some, but this is a colder storm than the last so there will be better snow chances for most. As TK said, not nearly as much of an issue in the wind/coastal flood departments. Early feeling is mostly snow outside of I95, and prevailing totals much more likely to be single digit versus double digit. Will narrow that down much more over the next couple days.

    Yet another threat looms by early next week. Even at this range, that one has my attention as having high end potential, but obviously we have a long time to watch that. Beyond then, I favor a fairly rapid breakdown in the pattern and much warmer weather for the second half of March, though it may remain on the active side in terms of rain chances.

      1. The block will place high pressure at upper levels and surface to the north. The upper air will already be colder here than it was for the last storm. So while the high helps, we don’t really need it.

        1. Agree with this too. We’re lacking in cold surface highs, but it’s not a requirement for snow in this pattern like it was for most of February. The cold may be marginal, but it’s there.

      2. It’s been tough to get much in way of cold surface highs. Ironically, the departure of the SE Ridge also brought with it the departure of the train of cold highs to our north, essentially leaving SNE in a similarly warm regime under a much different pattern. When the AO crashed recently, most of the cold spilled onto the European side, not the North American side. Next week’s storm has my attention because that one may come with a ridge in the west, which these other ones haven’t come with. That may help to push some colder air into the East. Of course, we’re also beginning to seriously fight with climatology. Spring is right around the corner.

      1. So far the European snow forecast has been incorrect on virtually every forecast more than 1 day in advance this winter. I suspect these #’s will also be somewhat different for at least part of this region.

        1. Aren’t they pretty to look at though? 🙂

          Numbers aside, that was a very good track for significant snow in most of SNE.

          1. Yes, and I do think part of SNE will receive significant snow from that system.

            1. Do you think the heavier totals set up more southeast like the Euro is showing or further inland?

              1. I’m conflicted at this point. I could make a case for either and not feel one is stronger than the other.

  10. 12z GFS/Euro/UKMET/ICON are all a good hit for Wednesday. Only the CMC is offshore.

    Only the GFS rain/snow line is well inland as it looks warm at the 925mb level. As I mentioned at the end of the last blog though, the 850mb temps look good and with a deepening low passing to our southeast and good dynamics, the rain/snow line should end up further southeast than what the GFS is showing. We will not have the firehose off the Atlantic to overcome like we did with this last storm….this is a different setup.

    1. Still marginal, Mark. At least here at the coast. I realize it may be different for you. And indeed as we saw on Friday 100 miles west of Boston there was plenty of snow.

      Here, the ground is relatively warm. Ocean temperature has also risen several degrees over the past few weeks. To me the missing component is cold air to our north and west. We had a lot of that in December and part of January. Indeed, we had a lot that last March. And often when we have blocking in March we get sizable snowstorms at the coast. But this year is different. Not 2012 different, but certainly on the milder side.

      1. More cold air to work with this time. 850 temps to the NW of the storm track look good. I agree there will definitely be a rain/snow line but its not going to set up shop in western New England like the last one. It will be much farther E/SE. Tough call for BOS-PVD corridor and points southeast right now but I think N&W of there will end up OK.

  13. 12z GFS and Euro both continue to indicate a major coastal storm for next Monday 3/12. 12z Euro is a monster hit.

    1. looks like a storm that goes from some point Wednesday morning to Thursday morning. Again its to far out to really pin point but in that time frame. Possible two morning commutes effected.

    2. That might have a better chance of verifying if we leave the numbers the same but change the units to millimeters.

  16. Tom, SSK – those in marshfield area….if you are following Marshfield/Brant Rock Weather Watch on FB (or anyone who can find it), there is a video TODAY of the waves literally breaking over the houses.

    TODAY. This is just heartbreaking.

  17. I saw a photo of the first house we rented when my oldest was one year old – her first of now 38 years at Humarock. We missed a couple after both my mom passed and Mac passed because of memories, but not many. It was destroyed on the front (I consider the ocean side of the house the front). I have one of my fondest adult memories of my younger brother sitting on the porch at night after everyone had gone to sleep and talking for hours and listening to the sounds of the ocean.

    I cannot even begin to imagine how homeowners feel when my memory is of only one year. I know houses are just things, but no one can ever convince me they do not hold memories of those who have shared their walls. It is just heartwrenching.

  18. You want a big snowstorm, check the 18z NAM. Probably running its typical high QPF bias, but if we get that kind of evolution where the coastal low starts coming together faster and further south, we could be in business for a bigger snow event.

  21. The internet snow weenies are in full force. The fake forecasters misfired massively on their big snow forecasts for the last storm (while they pretty much ignored the actual threats), so they are taking whichever models show the worst 3 and 4 days in advance, plastering them all over the net, and pulling the usual alarmist and hype stunts. Just be aware of it. I’ve already seen of them use the term “Blizzard”.

    2. They’re excited about it I guess. They also know they are running out of time. 3-4 weeks and that’s about it.

    3. how can there be a blizzard when there is no strong winds forecaster lol. Winds are extremely weak. We don’t want alot of wind if we want a good snow storm right now.

    4. Just the way it’s going to be now and forever. Really good network news and overall solid journalism died 25 years ago… maybe 30. I stopped watching TV & cable news about 5 years ago and I’m never going back. Weather reporting and weather forecasting is going the same way. You just have settle with too that sadly.

    5. Is nor’easter a better term? Because I heard the term thrown around on three different stations.

  23. The southwesterlies have taken over in most of Western Europe in a big way. Major thaw underway with temps into the low 50s in Amsterdam (most of last week it remained below freezing there). Unlike here, usually once winter retreats this late in the season in Western Europe it retreats for good. The signs point to that happening.

  24. So sick & tired of driving around parking lot to parking lot . In Weymouth now at McDonald’s

  26. Retrac, you’ll enjoy your trip overseas I’m sure. As I recall, you’re visiting Germany and the Netherlands.

    1. Thanks Joshua. Yes, going to Germany too. Can’t wait. I’ll be over there for nine days.

  27. One other final thought I had on the storm, as it related to the similar line of thinking that I believe TK, JMA, and myself were all basically following along.

    What went right with the forecast: the snow, or lack thereof. Very little snow in SNE. The snow aspect was totally overblown by many non-mets. There was just no way that storm was going to be a snow producer for SNE. Too warm. The emphasis by actual mets on the wind and coastal flooding was the right message, and while I think the messaging on these issues was definitely sufficient and saved lives, I believe it was muddled and buried a bit by unnecessary snow talk.

    What went wrong with the forecast: the fact that the storm actually impacted us that severely to begin with. The strength of the blocking to me at least suggested a more southeastern evolution. And we did see how it was shunted away, but not before the actual evolution occurred right on our doorstep. Had the air mass been just a bit colder, we would’ve been looking at feet of snow along with all the other issues. So the forecast inside of 2-3 days was good, but not very good outside then.

    Very important IMO to review these sorts of things after a storm. One of the ways to get better for the next one.

    2. One thing I would add is that the snow aspect of the forecast was also overblown by many, many mets, not just non-mets. Every forecast I saw for my area in NE CT, whether it be a local TV met, the NWS, etc had us receiving several inches of snow.

  28. Hadi, I’m very sorry to hear about your mother. Such a difficult time for you and your family. Take care.

  29. Spitting snow here. I had my portable fire thing all set and was headed for deck. Oh well. With all everyone else is facing, so not important.

  31. So many stations are already basically preparing people for a possible nor’easter midweek. I feel like it’s too early to be getting people worked up but that’s just me.

  32. Been snowing pretty good here in Coventry CT the past hour and a half….we have picked up a quick half inch of snow and still snowing. Ground is white. 30 degrees.

  34. 0z NAM is amped and popping the coastal low way south off the Carolina coast. This looks like it is going to be a big hit.

  35. 0Z NAM is amped/tucked in close to the coast. Crush job for NJ/Eastern NY/ western MA and VT/NH/ME. Results in p-type issues in SNE with a rain/snow line setting up along I-84 up to I-495. That’s a great run if the low is about 50 miles to the southeast.

  40. 0Z GGEM is no longer a whiff and closer on this run as well though not as close to the coast as the GFS/NAM. Better for southeast areas.

  41. The trend tonight is definitely earlier coastal development, more amped and with a track closer to the coast. That does not bode well for an all snow event in eastern SNE but western SNE and CNE would really cash in. We’ll see what King Euro has to say later.

  42. 0z Euro still a good hit. Benchmark track and snow totals pretty much identical to the 12z Sunday run.

    1. So it’s the euro and cmc vs the nam and gfs. I really hope this storm tracks at benchmark instead of giving us rain

  44. I speak for the town of marshfield ….. we surrender 🙂

    The wind is back up this morning and we’re looking forward to tomorrow’s storm. 🙂 🙁

    I hope the electric crews don’t go too far ….. they’ll be needed at the coast AND especially inland if a lot of heavy wet snow is realized inland. Crazy start to march.

    1. I am with you Tom. I honestly don’t know when we will see power again at our house. There are still many downed wires and trees that need to be addressed. My house is now at 48 degrees and just not a fun place to be.

        1. Went to a friend’s house in Marshfield yesterday who doesn’t have power but has a generator and wood stove. Got to warm up and have a hot shower. We have a well so we are really camping at our house. 🙂 My mom just got her power back so we will be heading there tonight.

      2. Definitely not outrageous but probably enough to halt the progress of the repairs from Friday’s storm.

        1. Totally agree. Any extra wind at this point will not be good. And should in snow, that won’t help repairs either.

  46. This will be a heavy wet snow which is never a good thing when that accumulates since you have a risk of power outages.

  47. I think I saw it mentioned in the NWS discussion ….. probably elevation dependent on snowfall. An inland town at 300 to 400 ft is going to have less to a lot less than a town at 800 to 900 ft, etc …….

    1. Yet they have Boston in the watch for 6 inches plus.

      I do not think this is necessarily an elevation storm. It will either snow or rain regardless of elevation. imho. we shall see. It will all come down to temps aloft. Now elevation can play a roll in accumulations as the ratio may be better at elevation. And I say may, because that isn’t necessarily so either.

      Bottom line and to steal from Retrac, Here We Go Again!

      1. I agree. Inland, snow at all elevations. Perhaps at the coast too, Boston northward. 850 mb looks a lot better. But the boundary layer will be impacted because it’s march, the first 1/2 to 2/3 of the storm are daytime and the airmass is colder, but not super cold.

        1. So, a town like the one retrac lives in could see 12, but 100 to 200 ft lower might see 8 and a 100 ft lower might get 6.

          These are random numbers, not to forecast, but to illustrate my thinking. 🙂 🙂

          1. I still wish we had a cold high in place. You can never tell relying on just dynamic cooling.

            1. We don’t need it.

              This next system will have its cold air sent in before and linger for the most part during, but there will be a rain/snow line.

  48. latest model scores

    SNOW HIT

    EURO
    CMC
    UKMET
    NAM

    More Rain than SNOW

    GFS
    ICON
    FIM

    INDETERMINATE

    JMA
    NAVGEM

  49. From Bernie Rayno
    Unlike with the last storm, we do have an injection of cold dry preceding wed’s storm

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