Boston Area Discussion, Irene Impacts, & Forecast

263 Comments

3:35PM

High pressure has slipped offshore and a southerly flow behind it is bringing in increasing humidity with some clouds, though it has been and remains a generally nice day across southern New England. A cold front will amble its way into and across New England from west to east Thursday and Thursday night, bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms. The main activity should occur just ahead of and along the front itself during the night. High pressure will build in on Friday bringing nice weather for a day, but the front from the night before will not be far offshore, and the boundary left behind by it will drift back toward the coast by Saturday, setting up a conveyor belt for tropical moisture in advance of Hurricane Irene. This means that showers may break out during Saturday, and by Saturday evening or night, some of them may be heavy. This will not be directly associated with Irene. We will feel the first rain bands from that during the day on Sunday. Irene’s closest pass is expected Sunday evening. There, of course, is still uncertainty on the final track. If you look at yesterday’s blog post I wrote a “for fun” scenario in the comments section, based on my actual thoughts. This still holds, and for the moment is similar to the track issued by the National Weather Service. This track brought Irene close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Saturday then accelerated it north northeast to the eastern tip of Long Island NY and then into the South Coast of New England near the border of Rhode Island and Connecticut by late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday night. Tropical cyclones that have turned to the north along or off the US East Coast often accelerate very rapidly and start to lose tropical characteristics, but history has shown they can still pack quite a punch. In this case, Irene is expected to behave like the majority of these systems. I expect it to reach southern New England as a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane. If it were to scrape NC a little further inland than the outer banks or remain near the Delmarva Coast longer, it would weaken a little more due to its proximity to land (interaction with land weakens these storms – they like warm water). If the center remains offshore, it will maintain alot of its intensity, though weaken some, as the water is running warmer than normal at this time. So it all comes down to the details of the track. Anyone east of the track will see stronger winds, and bands of heavy rain, though not tremendous rainfall totals in most cases. Coastal areas east of the center, especially south-facing ones, face a storm surge of at least a few feet, which would lead to flooding. Wind damage is also most likely in these areas. Those who are west of the path will see much less wind but a heavier swath of rain. Wind damage is still possible here but would be much less widespread. However, the heavy rain could aid in bringing down some trees that were weakened by previous heavy rain, and even weakened by some of last winter’s storms.

I believe that Irene will be accelerating so quickly, that most if not all rain will be over by Sunday night at midnight, and the stars may even be visible through breaks in the clouds here in southern New England.

It should also be noted that landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes, and even depressions) can produce tornadoes. These are usually weaker than the type produced by severe thunderstorms, but are still capable of producing significant damage. These are most likely on the side of the storm that would be east of the center. Something to keep in mind if any part of southern New England is east of the center.

Check back here for further updates on Irene and please feel free to join in the discussion below, in the comments section!

In the mean time, here is my latest forecast for the Boston Area and nearby neighbors…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Temperature settling from near 80 into the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms after 10AM. High 81-86. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to SW late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early. A band of showers and locally heavier thunderstorms crossing the region from west to east about 10PM-2AM. Low 61-66. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W overnight.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 82-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Increasing chance of showers in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 64. High 80.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Tropical showers likely, some heavy. Possible thunder. Strong winds and heavy rain possible from late afternoon into evening depending on the exact track of Irene. Low 66. High 77.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 84.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 78.

263 thoughts on “Boston Area Discussion, Irene Impacts, & Forecast”

  2. TK with your sort of track what type of conditions do you see for Merrimack Valley? I am thinking a lot of rain and Tropical Storm force winds.

    1. They would get their strongest wind from the east or southeast just in advance of the center in the evening. And this assumes my track is correct. Heaviest rain may actually come in a tropical band Sunday morning versus with the actual storm’s passage. There could be a period of strong NW winds on the back side, similar to Bob.

  3. I see that hurricane force winds extend out 50 miles from the center. As Irene approaches this latitude, even though the sustained winds may be dropping off slowly, will the wind field, particularly to the east of the center, be expanding ? So, would a landfall on the eastern tip of Lomg Island be able to produce hurricane force winds in east coastal Mass ?

  4. TK,

    Great Discussion. I think you have nailed it. Actually I hope you are off by 200 miles!
    Lol

    Harvey last night indicated that the worst would be a Cat 2 and best case would be a Tropical storm with the most likely a Cat 1.

    I am still thinking a Cat 2.

    We shall see.

    1. Thanks Old Salty.

      The hurricane spaghetti plots just updated to 18z and they are really converging on New England.

    1. Its spaghettiplots.com and it lands you on a page called Mike’s weather page and then I like the third one down which it looks like comes from Florida State University.

      2. Spaghettimodels.com

        I have a terrible memory and I’m on my wife’s IPad and I dont know how to post the link, sorry.

        2. Tom if you go to the bar where the URL appears and hold your finger steady on the link you will be asked to select or select all. Choose select all then choose copy. Then go to your comment box. Hold your finger steady again on the spot where you want the link to appear. Choose paste. Hope it works

  10. Well, I went to the local hardware store to get a new flashlight and batteries. I think it would be a fair comment to say I was NOT alone. Wow!! Also fair to say that the flashlight selection was getting very low.

    Soon the supermarket and gasoline runs will start.

  11. Yes, Time to gas up. Want that tank full. Should we lose power, or when we lose power, the gas pumps don’t work as they are electric.

    Glad I grabbed a bunch of flashlights this AM.

    I don’t know what we will see at the supermarket tonight. Still have Thurs, Fri and Sat. I’ll wager shelves will be COMPLETELY EMPTY by Fri night.

    1. I plan to fuel up tonight and get a big pack of bottled water and stock the freezer with ice that I could throw in the cooler to try to save some of the meats that I could cook on the grill. We are fairly loaded up on canned foods, cereals, etc and am lucky to have lots of flashlights and lanterns because of camping.

      1. Remember gas in the gas grill I also fill bathtub with water. Can be put in toilet tank for obvious reasons ;$.

  13. OS, you are right, but also if supermarkets and other stores lose power they won’t let people in. No need to panic but smart to pick up some essential items.

  14. Irene is expanding.

    Hurrican force winds now extend out 60 miles from the Center:

    Here is the latest:

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ——————————
    AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
    IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
    NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
    NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS
    THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
    NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH…195 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
    DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY
    THURSDAY.

    IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
    OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL
    STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM. A WIND
    GUST TO 60 MPH…95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
    THE BAHAMAS.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.

  15. Bouchard’s forecast at 4:45 was tough to follow. He made a vague reference to a possible front coming in from the west over the weekend which could change the Irene track. No one else has spoken of this (that I know of) and again it was hard to follow. Did anyone else hear Bouchard and what he was saying?

    1. I haven’t heard pete but last year he was the only one who called for Earl to go out to sea the Wednesday before then he backed off when he got heavy criticism. I personally don’t discount what he says but keep in back of my mind

  16. From Accu Weather, some expected effects:

    New York City
    Tropical Storm,Gusts 50 mph
    4-8 inches
    2-4 feet

    Westhampton
    Hurricane, Gusts 90 mph
    4-8 inches
    2-4 feet

    Providence
    Hurricane, Gusts 80 mph
    4-8 inches
    2-4 feet

    Yarmouth
    Tropical Storm, Gusts75 mph
    4-8 inches
    2-4 feet

    Boston
    Hurricane, Gusts 80 mph
    4-8 inches
    2-4 feet

    Portsmouth
    Hurricane, Gusts 80 mph
    4-8 inches
    2-4 feet

    Portland
    Hurricane, Gusts 80 mph
    4-8 inches
    2-4 feet

    Bar Harbor
    Tropical Storm, Gusts 70 mph
    4-8 inches
    2-4 feet

    My feeling is that these should be the SUSTAINED WINDS and not the GUSTS!

    So I dunno.

    We’ll see.

  17. I think he was blowing smoke out of his you know what!

    That’s just my take.

    Trend is friend? while he showed OLD spaghetti charts.

    1. OS, glad I am not the only one who couldn’t follow it. Sounded like he was a day behind, and half way making stuff up. I have nothing against Bouchard, but it was a confusing forecast. (Not that I think he is a great met either.)

  18. We were told at work this afternoon to have all of the street drains and roof drains checked by tomorrow night. I have a feeling I will be spending all of sunday at work into monday, that stinks. Overtime yes, but still stinks.

  19. TK and other mets on TV have alluded to heavy showers as early as Saturday and Saturday evening…….I remember the night before Hurricane Bob, the same thing happened and there were heavy showers and thunderstorms and it was amazing watching the radar with waves of tropical showers hundreds of miles ahead of the storm.

    1. Tom- If this pans out Brant rock would be under water. The venus was rebuilt after the no name storm. There was a great seafood place to that was destroyed. Tom what section do you live in.

        1. I grew up on ocean bluff between 7th and 8th rd. How much money do you spend at the turkey farm. Good eating there.

          2. Gerard turkey farm is also in Framingham. On a bigger scale. Both were started by brothers then when Ron in framingham died suddenly years ago his son took it over. He recently closed but until then I designed and managed their web site

        1. Right after the fieldston restaurant the number rds start with 13th rd. So you can see how close I was to the water. During the no name storm the fieldston was as far as you could go. Water was flowing right down ocean bluff. I believe it may of been flowing during gloria as well. Besides the blizzard the no name storm was the bigest. The no name storm was the blizzard without snow, with all the destruction that we got, scituate got nailed.

      1. I googled hurricane model accuracy for Earl today because I was curious to see/recall how the models verified. Anyhow, I dont think any conclusions can be reached from one day’s run on one storm.

  22. Vicki- Gerard turkey is big. It is a gold mine all year long. You should see the line on the wednesday morning before thanksgiving.

    1. John we live around the corner from it in Framingham and they are lined up to our street For thanksgiving. The one there did major lunches and had a BBQ and wonderful ice cream stand in the summer. we missed it a lot this year and hated to see it close.

        1. No we will not leave until Saturday if we go which seems likely. Hopefully we will return early Monday

        2. If it’s anything but a TS we will head out. We don’t need to complicate anyone’s rescue and we know the house we are in has ended in the river behind it three times that was before it was put on “stilts” but our cars are in the driveway and neighbors tell us the river comes up into the driveway and the ocean will come under the house to meet it. Our son wants to stay but he’s one of those that will have to go to work in Boston Sunday so that won’t happen.

          1. Sounds like your son has the weather bug in him. He should bang in. I am really thinking I will be called into work. We may just be told to come in before It starts. I hope not because I want to be at home.

          2. John he’s always had the bug:). He can loose his job for not being there. Essential state personnel and all that.

  23. I’m still looking for a miss but it seems as though it won’t happen. NOAA has not changed the predicited path all day. Irene is going to be a memorible one for sure.

  24. I’m currently going with the Irene passing west of us, which puts us on the windy side, with times of tropical showers.
    *Early estimates for rain and wind for the Boston area*
    3-5″ of rain, winds 50-70MPH, gusts to 85MPH.

    Anywhere that is located west of the track (western Connecticut, western Mass)
    8-15″ of rain, winds 30-50 MPH, gusts to 65 MPH.

    1. Is there a really good chance this thing does indeed go west. If that is the case how do you think my town pembroke and my neighbors Marshfield and Scituate will be impacted.

      1. About 2-4″ of rain, with winds 60-80 MPH, gusts to 100 MPH. Major beach erosion, and the potential for significant coastal flooding.

        1. Sorry, got confused to where those locations were…basically the same for Boston.
          Areas in extreme southeast Mass should see About 2-4″ of rain, with winds 60-80 MPH, gusts to 100 MPH.

  25. Hey Guys, I’ve been away for several hours. So what’s the latest for the boston to brockton area?

  26. Hurricane watches r gonna go up by Thu 5am for Outer banks and for most likely our area by Friday

  27. Todd on BZ at 6 PM started talking about Irene travelling up the 95 corridor. A little specific this far out, but that’s where he saw it.

      1. TK, I do remember you saying something like that but didn’t think you were quite as specific. I know it’s not 100% for sure, but did you also indicate the 95 corridor? I ask because I live in that corridor.

        2. I wrote it somewhere and it may have been somewhere other than here. 🙂 … I will have to check. I’m 2 miles away from 95.

  28. Non-Irene stuff..

    Red Sox game on in background, Don and Jerry commenting on the outfielders struggling with fly balls and gusty winds. Went and checked out Dallas, TX radar and sure enough, can easily see an outflow boundary moving WESTWARD away from Dallas

    Big storms currently erupting on cold front in eastern great lakes

  29. Tom- are you starting to get nervous- what does your gut tell you. Is there a good chance this thing goes west, which would be bad for us right. Or is there a chance this thing could just dud out.

    1. Nervous enough that I fueled up the car, bought water, ice and more food that does not require refrigeration……….

      I’m not worried about the area looking like Homestead, FL after Andrew (flattened), but I am worried about being on the east side of the track and receiving 2 to 3 hrs of sustained tropical force storm winds, with a half hour or so of hurricane force gusts that brings a lot of trees down onto a lot of lines that has power out for some time.

  30. Question. Is irenes track somewhere between bob and Gloria but closer to Bob? What that puts Framingham just west of track right?

    Also we were thinking of leaving after noontime Saturday from
    Scituate. Is that too late to leave???

      1. Thanks longshot. Would it be torrential rain? Is there a timeframe when rain will start? No sense staying at beach if it’s too wet to go on beach. I’d rather get ahead of rain and possible traffic of others leaving

        1. Vicki, here is TK’s Sat forecast from above.

          SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Increasing chance of showers in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 64. High 80.

        2. It could rain any time Saturday but the 2nd half of the day holds more potential. With tropical moisture becoming established, heavy rain is always possible.

      1. Oops stupid phone has a mind of it’s own. I was saying I hope hospital is close to your home so you don’t have to drive far

        1. Sorry. Phone posted before I finished typing. I was hoping you didn’t have to drive far to get to hospital but pembroke to Boston is a distance. Do they call you in early and hold shifts over for a double?

          1. I work for Hospital Engineering. We come in for all major storms and work them frontline- snow,hurricane,floods to name some. We are the first ones called in and last to leave. We do not get double time, everything is time and a half. Any thing after 8hrs is overtime. I have spent entire weekends at the Hospital working snow. I am on the building and grounds dept.

  32. The other thing I worry about is that, in looking at some of the pressure forecasts on the various models, many of them seem to show a big drop in pressure in the time period of 72 to 96 hrs, while the storm is transversing the Gulf Stream near the outer banks of North Carolina. So, I guess the worst case scenario, is if it really bombs out near the NC Coast, then races up and landfalls on eastern Long Island as a major hurricane. I also dont like that the water temps south of New England are 3 to 4F above normal. Its not like its late September and they’ve had a chance to chill off a little.

    1. Somehow these spaghetti models look more like “angel hair.” I can’t tell them apart when all converge in MA.

  35. If I understood Pete Bouchard correctly, he believes the “final” track shift either way will come Friday or perhaps Saturday.

  36. The 11:00 pm NHC forecast map shows Irene as still a “H” over central MA (probably Worcester area?) at 8:00 pm Sunday and not becoming extra-tropical until Canada.

    TK, will NNE have hurricane “issues” to some extent as well?

    1. Absolutely, yes. You will be looking at big winds east of the center and big rains west of it all the way up through northern New England, though the winds of course will not be as powerful as they will be in coastal areas of SNE that are east of the center. Some of the higher elevations will experience very strong gusts.

  39. One final thought on yesterday’s earthquake, then time for bed. I really find it puzzling as to why those in high office towers really felt the quake to be scared enough to evacuate and yet most of us on the surface (myself included) felt absolutely nothing. I was at home all day going about my business and I have felt more rumblings when a car blasting loud music passes by or idles for a minute but a magnitude 5.8….zilch. I never heard of any comments for subway riders either, so I don’t know if the MBTA had any quake issues.

  40. Good Morning everyone! The weather plate is full with not only tracking hurricane Irene but also the possiblity of strong to severe storms for today. The storm prediction center continues to have a good chunk of SNE in the slight risk for severe storms today with a 15% chance for both wind and hail and a 2% chance of a tornado. Will see what happens to those values when the new update comes out just before 9AM. I think the interior has the best shot of seeing severe weather today although I don’t see a widespread severe weather outbreak. Thunderstorm Index remains the same at a 2 since there is a threat of some severe weather.
    Now to Irene and looking at the spagetti plots that have trended west. Will see if this trend continues. Hurricane watches posted for the Outer Banks and I would that to be issued up here if this forecast continues.

    1. JJ the house we are in is set on stilts and we felt it big time BUT only if we were sitting. Once you stood up or anyone who was standing didn’t feel the quake. We could all hear the windows creek though. My sons place of work is in Boston but not a high rise and they didn’t feel anything.

      Thanks for today’s Tstorm update!!

    1. Sure looks that way…..I wonder how much water is going to get piled into Long Island Sound with an east and southeast wind ahead of landfall……..

      Very interested in intensity today. Recon plane measured a pressure drop to 950mb….

    1. Hi Vicki,

      I’d be most confident in saying it shifts the extremely heavy rain threat west. On the winds, not as sure.

    2. I was looking at current Irene track and then Gloria track. I’m using a phone so it’s not easy to see but they look very similar. Is that correct?

  43. Vicki it depends how far west she goes… If she holds course we would be in severe wind sector, but if she moves even further west we end missing the brunt if it.
    NHC did not shift track too much westward in it’s 5 am update.

    1. Thanks Hadi and Tom. Ch 7 said further west means more storm surge. I suspect they mean south facing coastline but will it still be strong surge for east facing?

  44. If you follow the center line of the cone of uncertainity it takes it into to the Bridgeport New Haven CT area much like Hurricane Gloria did back in 1985 which was the last hurricane to make landfall in CT. This is a large system so no matter where it makes landfall impacts will be felt. The question is now how bad is it going to be? Again as I said in my earlier post this is not the only thing were tracking today.

  45. So it appears the track has pushed further was and the intensity forecast has diminished at our latitude.

  47. Here now:) I still think its a little too far west for my thinking. Hurricanes have a tendency to change as they get past the mid atlantic region very suddenly. Not saying this is gonna happen, but NHC really did not shift the track as much as the EURO/GFS are.

  48. What I think is key to the forecast is how much land does it hit in on the Outer banks. Once we see what happens there I think we will have a better read on what to expect up here.

  49. Good morning, all – although I will be in and out today, I will be keeping an eye to the sky today, as JJ says, we could have some strong storms today/tonight. It’s mostly cloudy right now in Sudbury – I wish it would stay that way – more stability. But I am guessing the sun will be out at some point and I am not sure lack of sun would make a difference today as it looks like shear and other ingredients are kind of strong today.

    As far as Irene is concerned, ‘though it is already Thurs. I still feel it is early to be 100% sure on any tracks. Last I heard Irene could go more westerly. Hurricanes have minds of their own. But I like TK’s outlook – seems most logical.
    Uh-oh – sun coming out. Oh, well.

  51. Sun is out with no clouds at all. Another top 10 morning. Our neighbor just popped in to secure his house. He said there is a 99% chance the ocean will come up under our houses and meet the river in our driveway. Guess that removes any question of whether we head home.

  53. Well,

    A new day has dawned and Irene is fickle as ever. The hints were there last evening.
    It now “appears” that she wants to take a more Westward track.

    Virtaully ALL of the models are on board for that track. Still time for a change.

    Actually, it may be so far west as to spare us the brunt of it.

    Here is the 0Z Euro:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=096&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1

    06Z GFS is slightly East of that.

    So, here we go again. Much like those onagainoffagain Winter snow storms.

    We’ll just have to continue to watch.

  55. I think we may still see an easterly correction in the models. Might not know more until it hits the the Outer Banks.

  56. Longhsot I agree 100% I think we need to see what she does when she clears the Carolina’s. As I said earlier I think once it reached the mid-atlantic we will know a whole lot more.

  58. re: Easterly Correction

    I don’t know about that. I watched Brain Nircross last night.
    They just don’t know how the interaction will be with the last trough to pass through.

    Their thinking late last night was that it would suck iren more to the West.
    There was some uncertainty, to be sure. It still could KICK it East, but they
    were leaning towards the more Westerly Path.

  60. Longshot,

    Yes, but if it tracks far enough West, same difference. It won’t affect us much at all.

  61. New track out at 11AM so will see if there a shift in any direction. The key is that some you have pointe out is how much land interaction it wll have with the Outer Banks. If it stay over water it won’t weaken as much as if it were to go over land. Another thing water temperatures are 80 degrees as it gets up to New Jersey which is still warm enough water for the system to work with it. With that said I think once it gets up here your looking at a category 1 storm making landfall.

  62. JJ,

    Good points All. Btw, this morning’s adivsory had it down to 115.
    I’m thinking now that it won’t make cat 4 status as originally thought.

    Let’s see what they have to say at 11AM.

    Thanks

  63. Can anyone tell me please approximate time it reaches outer banks and if by then weather could be bad enough to travel in? I’m trying to figure out if we can wait it out in Humarock to see what happens in outer banks or if we should just leave and be safe. Thank you

  65. Was wondering if someone could explain what an eye wall replacement is and what it means to the storm?

    Good friend of mine is vacationing this week / next week in OBX, a couple families, Southern Shores. They have evacuated, headed into Colonial Williamsburg through Sunday… hoping for the best!

    Thanks!

    TJA

  66. Vicki,

    If you are in Humarock, there is no hurry, unless there is much preparation to be done in Framingham. Unless you have much to do at home, you could leave on
    Saturday.

    1. Thanks Old Salty. We are planning Saturday. With any luck we will know better Saturday am. My oldest and her family were planning to come Saturday. Oh well what happens happens

  68. Hurricane Watches are up for the Outer Banks.
    Now to the thunderstorm potential an area of showers is tracking into SNE and hopefully this will prevent the atmosphere from really destablizing by time the next round of showers and storms comes through later in the afternoon.

  70. It would pretty funny if she goes so far west as to avoid us. I think everyone would take beating on the BZ blogs!!

  71. Hadi,

    Although there is still time for changes, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if that exact scenario unfolds. We kept saying all along that these things sometimes go where they
    want to go.

  73. There is no model showing an out to sea solution. You got a couple going through CT and a few going up through the Hudson River Valley. The further west Irene could track would help us out from big time impacts.

  74. Hi all!! Slight adjustment west with the track… not going with the inland route. Full update this aftn and DON’T overlook the thunderstorm threat today and tonight!

  76. Typically this past winter, 5 to 7 days out we look to get nailed, 3 to 4 days out its a miss. With that in mind I think it may start to track back east a bit by tomorrow mornings runs.

  77. Thanks TK!! Looking forward to your thoughts.

    Yes I agree this afternoon storm look very healthy to say the least!!

  79. John,

    Just West of Us is worst case scenario, however, the farther West it goes, the better
    it starts getting for us. If it goes far enoug West, we’ll barly be impacted at all.

    Just still too early to tell.

  80. JJ,

    I have a potential biz app’t in CT today. I could put it off until tomorrow. What’s your thinking?

    1. Hey Longshot…. Down in CT there is the potential for showers and storms. There is an area of showers moving into the
      western parts of the state right now and the potential for more showers and storms to fire off later today. Tomorrow should be a dry day.

  81. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

    Look at the trof to the east of the storm, it is helping to provide excellent outflow on the storms north side. Theres a small upper level low sliding west southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico from the west coast of Florida. I think it is helping to vent the hurricane on its west side…I am surprised that Irene hasnt explosively developed. I still think it may do (even though I’ve been saying that for two days now). Finally, there’s the trof approaching the east coast with todays thunderstorm threat. I’d think Irene will feel that a bit later today and turn towards the north.

  82. Tropical storm force winds extend out 255 miles from the center of Irene (NHC) and the approximate distance from NYC to Nantucket is 287 miles. (Well that was the driving and then ferry distance, I presume). So, I’d think even if it tracks over NYC, we are going to feel the wind, especially with the frictionless ocean to our south and east.

  83. My Elbow of the Cape / Nantucket path for the storm I think is out the window. A more southerly flow and the faster passing of the trough will keep it from acting as an easterly kicker. Now the question is how far west? Does it interact with land along in the mid-atlantic? Does that longer time over land and closer proximity to cooler water weaken the storm considerably into a Tropical Storm for most of SNE? OR does it stay just off shore keeping its interaction with land to a minimum and race through the cooler waters, not allowing for much weakening as it takes a path over LI and into Central and Western MA, leaving Eastern ma in the right front quadrant of a Cat 2 hurricane. OR does it go way west into near Philly and into upstate NY? I know what way I am leaning, but want to wait a little longer before committing.

  84. Was wondering if someone could explain what an eye wall replacement is and what it means to the storm?

    Good friend of mine is vacationing this week / next week in OBX, a couple families, Southern Shores. They have evacuated, headed into Colonial Williamsburg through Sunday… hoping for the best!

    Thanks!

    TJA

    (I re-posted this, as I think I used a different email address (home vs work), and it went into moderation…)

  85. I know that the NAM isn’t particularly good with Hurricanes, BUT it seems to have some sort of handle on this. Look at this 12Z loop to 84 hours. It has it making landfall
    in Southern Conneciticut towards the Eastern end. A pretty bad scenario for us.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F25%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    “Could” this be our first hint of a shift BACK towards the EAST?

    Time wil tell.

    1. Thanks Old Salty.

      I find it interesting that the runs lowest pressure on the storm occurs from the Carolina Coast to just prior to landfall in Long Island.

  86. JMA,

    AH, don’t be timid. Out with it. You can share your thoughts. No need to wait.
    If you have to change your mind, you are free to do so. No one will bite you on this site.

  89. Tom,

    Good point. Nice catch. I wonder what’s up with that?
    The NAM solution would be quite bad for us. The NHC track wouldn’t be nearly
    as bad for us.

    1. I feel like some other models have been doing the same thing….. I just wonder if the models are picking up on something…………Earl intensified slightly after it passed us, before hitting Nova Scotia and those water temps arent 80F. We’ll see.

    2. Also, if the trof coming in from the west is sharpening the flow on the east coast from due south to north, then I dont see how shear comes into play if the storms direction is in the same direction of the upper level winds. Also, if there’s a big trof to its west, then there should be a big ridge just to its east. And to me, that would allow lots of outflow to occur on the north and east side and thus a chance to maintain strength.

  90. On this more westward track, it would literally flood every water way up the coast from NC. Pamlico Sound, Chesapeake Bay which goes right into Baltimore, Delaware Bay, The Battery at NYC, Long Island Sound, Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay.

  91. The track from the NHC has shifted west and if you follow the center line of the cone it brings up through western Long Island and western CT. Its interesting that models on Monday had this path and now have come back to it. Is this going to trend going to continue.

  92. JJ,

    It will be interesting to see if the 12Z GFS also picks up on a more Eastward track like the NAM. If it does, we’re onto something. If it doesn’t, well, it is up in the air, as usual!

  93. Give it to us JMA!!! Nobody holds you accountalble for anything here:) I think I can speak for everyone that we all respect your knowledge and love to hear what you have to say!!

    1. LOL…..I know, between fuel, water, ice, non refrigerant food and cash on hand……….but on the other hand, when the rest of the public hits the stores Friday and Sat, I’m all set.

  95. With this track we still will get very gusty winds here in Boston area 50-60 mph gusting to hurricane force, I believe we see a slight trend to the east and will make landfall about 30-40 miles east of current track, Hartford could be very close to center of Irene

  96. Old Salty I think Irene is going to offer some surprises as is often the case with these tropical systems since they have minds of their own. A little wiggle left or right could make a huge difference in terms of impact.

  98. I know the TV mets and NHC are jumping on this westward trend, but I am still a little skeptical. Too many model huggers for me. I always wonder whether some mets watch the models and then back into an explanation of why they are correct instead of using models as just one tool out of many. Still not sure if an eastward shift isn’t in our future. (Of course, my original hope was for an OTS solution so what do I know.)

  99. JJ,

    You are so correct. ALWAYS surprises, just like with the Winter storms.

    I picked up a bunch non-perishables and water last night. I saw many folks walking out with multiple gallons of water. Probably for naught! Lol

    My wife is scared bleepless about a tree falling on the house as we are surrounded on 2 sides. A line of maples on one side does not concern me as they are young. A line of pines and hemlocks on the other side does as they are old and any one of them could
    come down on the house with a strong E to SE wind gust. Let’s keep any gusts under 60 MPH and I’ll be happy. Any higher and I’ll be worried.

  100. hey Long,

    You are correct. There are just too many MHMs out there!
    (Model Hugging Mets)

    Give me someone like Barry who will use the models as a tool in his arsenal and take his knowledge and experience into consideration as well. Not mention a dose of Common Sense!!! LOL

    It will be interesting to see how things pan out.

    Can’t wait.

  101. 12Z GFS is coming out.
    The initial Frames “appear” to still have it on the Wetward track.
    BUT, we’ll see when the run is completed.

  105. I think you will see a shift to the east when all said and done. I stand by what I said yesterday that its just too far west for what I am thinking. I think we need to see how the storms later today interact with Irene as well whether she makes landfall in NC!!

  107. Hadi already showers moving into SNE. One thing I have noticed is this batch of showers has weakened from what it was a few hours ago. Now the thing to watch is will this zap the energy from the atmosphere and not allowing it destablize to give us big storms later on today???

  109. Hmmm…. Interesting

    Here is the 12Z GFS LOOP.

    It hits just East of NYC and the takes a right hand turn and ends up over Boston.

    That trough MUST be kicking it East. If it happens a bit earlier than this run indicates, then watch out.

    Those that suggest that models will trend back Eastward may end up being correct.

    Now we have to see the 12Z Euro.

    Have a great day. Be back In a couple of hours.

  112. 12z GFS lashes the coastal areas south of New England with over 8″ of rain. That run was a bit more east than the 06z run, but not by much.

  115. It is sunny, very warm and humid in eastern Mass and the storms are developing and intensifying in central Mass and CT……

  116. Was listening to local FM station WATD (95.9FM). They were talking about Gloria recalling that all the south shore lost power. They said it took 2 WEEKS to get everyone’s power back on.

    1. Tom, that would definitely place us in tropical storm forced winds. When are the next models to run? Hurricane or American?

  120. My wind app says 15 mph steady with gusts to 25. I thought wind was whipping the other day but the entire house is shaking and whistling today.

  121. I wonder if any of the approaching storms will go severe?

    Looks like they are intensifying. I’ll check the cloud tops. That will give us some idea.
    Be back.

  122. There are some mesocyclones mixed in, but max cloud tops are only 22,000 feet.
    I don’t think we’d get a severe storm with tops that low? Also, a few with hail
    under .5″ in diameter.

    Will keep an eye on tops for further stregthening.

  124. Latest Irene Data:

    SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…26.5N 77.2W
    ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM N OF NASSAU
    ABOUT 610 MI…980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…951 MB…28.08 INCHES

    1. You have to go in through the blogs link on the middle left or lower left corner of the ch 4 home page. It is not yet posted under the weather part of the site.

  130. Hi everyone–long time no post.

    Been a nice summer–hope you guys enjoyed it. I’m mostly a winter weather fan but a hurricane will make me come out of my hole for sure.

    Looking forward to your comments.

    1. That happens it will be a complete miss for Boston and it would only be a tropical storm even when it passes 75 miles west of NYC

    2. Old salty if track is way west does that eliminate any east facing beach storm
      Surges? I’m not as worried about wind as I am
      Ocean coming under house and destroying cars in the driveway. Thank you

  134. I have to say the further west the better as far as I’m
    Concerned. Although I’d rather see it out to sea where it won’t take a land toll

    Water gallons are sold out at Roche bros in marshfield. Most of the flashlights are gone too

    1. Hi Vicki,

      I am so glad I shopped last night. If you need water, try the Rite Aid in Marshfield center. They had a lot last night…I walked out of there with a grocery carriage full of water and ice. 🙂 My wife was laughing when I got home. (she doesnt follow the weather and is probably sick of hearing about it. ) 🙂 🙂

  135. I believe this makes landfall in eastern NC then it stays just off the coast and the center goes east of NYC by 30-40 miles and as it comes inland in Conn and will ever so slightly go east possibly passing over or just NW of Worcester and head into Maine

  136. Coastal,

    Honestly, Don’t know. It appears that the HWRF is now an outlier.
    “IF” I remember correctly from past storms, the GFDL was more accurate than
    the HWRF, But even so, it seems to have it TOO far West.

    I’d go with something inbetween, not unlike the 12Z GFS.

    Vicki, the farther West, the less likely and/or less severe any East Coast surge would be. Also, the wind would be more South to South East. My guess and it is only a guess would be that In Humarock, there would be only a minor surge if any at all.
    I defer to TK on that.

    If it is farther East then it gets steadily worse, of course.

    1. Well now I’ll just keep wishing west. I really appreciate everyone’s help. IRS tough to know what to do especially for my daughter whose trying to pack up a two year old for Sat or maybe Mon.

      Tom. They are out of water because we took the last five. We did leave a couple. I didn’t feel right taking it all!! I think well head back to rite aid tonight

    1. Are parts of NYC going to look like New Orleans after Katrina for a time ? This track favors surging water into Long Island Sound and into the Battery.

  139. Tom,

    Wouldn’t that only be if it tracked West of NYC. If it tracks East as we suspect, then all should be OK there.

    1. Well, if its east by say, 30 to 40 miles, then the winds out ahead of the storm are going to be southeast, then east…..probably for a long enough time to send a large surge into Long Island Sound and the Battery. Agreed that as the center passes NYC’s latitude, the wind would come around to the north, but, by then……

  140. NYC impacts right now I think are going to be the POTENTIAL for flooding and strong winds that could cause power outages. NYC has a surplus of over 8 inches of rain since June 1st and the ground is saturated so it won’t take much in the way of wind gusts to knock down some trees.

  142. This is the Current thinking from Accu Wether re: Impacts
    I think they are over cooked for some locations.

    New York City
    S 40-50 mph
    G 60-80 mph
    6-11″

    Hartford
    S 60-80 mph
    G 90 mph
    5-9″

    Providence
    S 50-60 mph
    G 70-80 mph
    4-8″

    Boston
    S 50-60 mph
    G 70-80 mph
    4-8″

    Concord, NH
    S 25-35 mph
    G 40-55 mph
    5-8″

    Portland, ME
    S 30-40 mph
    G 45-60 mph
    3-6″

    Halifax, NS
    S 25-35 mph
    G 40-55 mph
    3-6″

  144. Coastal,

    To the best I can determine, it is a clear shif to the East by some 50-100 miles.
    Because there is a full 24 hours between each frame it is difficult to tell for certain.

  147. As I said earlier those little shifts can make a huge difference to impacts. The thing to remember this a large storm so even if you are far away from where Irene makes landfall you are going to be affected by this in some way.

  148. Again thanks to everybody for reading and commenting! I haven’t had a chance to read everything here yet, as I had a busy day outside of the weather stuff, and it continues with some errands this afternoon. I am going to set up a new blog now with a short forecast and a few thoughts, let you all continue your commenting, and hopefully get to a longer discussion later this evening. I’m going to Maine tomorrow with my son for a fun day as he turns 12! Beach, air show, & fireworks from Ogunquit to Brunswick.

    Look for the updated blog shortly.

  149. 18Z NAM begining to come. I know it is not a hurricane model, but it will give us something else to look at.

    The 12Z run was trending Eastward, so we shall see.

    1. I’m thinking the national hurricane center moves it’s track 20-40 miles east of previous track at 5pm advisory. What do u think jj??

  151. Unfortunately I am not a met…

    But just the same, I am trying to extrapolate Irene’s future positions
    by looking at the 250MB and 300MB wind fields.

    Judging from those, I would say that the final results will be a shift
    Eastward from the 12Z run.

    Comments?

    Thanks

  152. Charlie,

    I agree with you. They probably will have access to the 18Z GFS by that time, even if we don’t.

  154. Just for giggles,
    I want to predict where the 18Z NAM will have Irene Make Landfall.

    Somewhere between Eastern CT and RI.

    Now we’ll see how really bad I am.

  155. TK just posted a new blog above. Will see what happens with the 5pm advisory and if hurricane watches are going to be extended further up the coast. I think the inland track through the Hudson River Valley is an outlier. I am thinking the center comes ashore in western or central Long Island then track up to CT.
    Remember west side the winds and the possiblity of isolated weak tornadoes. To the east the heavy flooding rains.

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