Monday Forecast

479 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
High pressure slips away today. The 3rd in a series of major storms impacts the region Tuesday as low pressure evolving today over the Mid Atlantic moves off the coast and turns northeastward, passing southeast of New England, interacting with an upper low approaching from the west out of the Great Lakes. The interaction of these and track of the main storm will determine exact snowfall amounts, especially where the heaviest bands set up. For now, going for these to be from the NH Seacoast through Cape Ann MA and over southeastern MA. Still some wiggle-room left so check updates in comments below. A new blog post will appear tonight if necessary. Quieter weather behind the departing storm as it now appears any additional unsettled weather will be forced to the south of the region later in the week after just upper level low pressure and the offshore storm combine for a few snow showers at midweek.
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 36-43. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving south to north from about 10PM on, may start as mix/rain parts of Cape Cod. Lows 25-32. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, especially eastern areas. Blowing snow at times. Temperatures generally steady 25-32. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, strongest coastal areas.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow ending. Total accumulation a widespread 8-16 inches, but 16-22 inches possible NH Seacoast, Cape Ann MA, southeastern MA except lesser amounts outer Cape Cod and Islands. Blowing snow at times. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing snow showers. Highs 32-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
Dry March 17-18. Risk of unsettled weather March 19 to early March 20, then dry again. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
Risk of rain about the middle of the period otherwise dry to start and end the period with temperatures closer to normal.

479 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. This morning Elliot Abrams mentioned that today is the anniversary of the 1888 Blizzard.

    Thanks TK!

  4. Thanks TK
    Unless this storm totally misses Boston will have above normal snowfall for the season.
    I believe they are at 42.3 inches for the season. I could see them close to if not just over 50 inches of snow for the season once this storm is over.

    1. I believe that I predicted 53.8″ for Boston in our snowfall contest. I never thought that I could actually come close. I was just happy to receive normal snowfall.

  6. Tweet from Meteorologist TJ Del Santo from WPRI in Providence.
    Hurricane hunter aircraft will be investigating the nor’easter today. This info will be put into computer models to get more accurate forecasts.

  7. I get the impression above that there may be one last snow threat for early next week. I noticed that NBC Boston had something for next Tuesday on their 10-day forecast.

  10. Thanks for the maps, Your Royal Highness.

    Patch posted the NWS map in an email blast last night. This was the subject of the email

    NEW: Snow Totals Drastically Increase For Now-Major Blizzard (Sun 6:38:51 PM)

    This was their interpretation:

    Expect between 12-24 inches. Yes, seriously.

    What am I missing….does anyone see a 24 on that map?

  12. Thanks TK. All I know is that the bust potential on this thing is through the roof. It’s possible Plymouth County and some surrounding areas could get around a foot, although even there, large bust potential exists. Even Cape Cod could get into some of the highest totals. But I will be very surprised if the Fitchburg-Worcester corridor gets the 12-18″ forecast by the NWS. That’s kinda what I meant yesterday when I said some places in 12-18″ ranges will only end up with 2-4″. I still believe that’s very possible. And I don’t believe many if any places in SNE will exceed 12″. It comes down to whether you trust that a storm that far east in the middle of the day in March is going to produce widespread 12-24″ totals. I don’t believe that will happen. Any slight tick east, and it’s basically over. I agree with Ed Vallee…

    Ed Vallee | Vallee Wx Consulting
    ‏@EdValleeWx
    I have a bad feeling this system could make a last minute Southeast shift. Have seen these storms do this before – delicate system for sure. If anything, I think the bust potential lies on the lower side versus higher…

    2. Thank you and more than interesting comment. I don’t have the knowledge to agree or disagree. I have the sense you are not alone in this view. For one, I would love to see a bust.

    3. This is why I didn’t dramatically shift amounts up. Just added 2-4 then the higher band east very dependent on banding.

      1. For me it’s just wishful thinking. We are overdue for a big bust. 🙂 What models are you most in favor of today as they run?

  13. Snow totals. Warning – I compiled these during an amazingly busy period and they were never checked. Please let me know if I have anyone’s totals wrong or if I missed anyone. Sue, I don’t see your name. Did I miss you?

    https://i.imgur.com/Dq2xzO5.png

  14. Good morning again.

    So the 9Z SREF is just starting to come out and it won’t be until about 10AM
    to see the 12Z NAM.

    I still don’t have a comfort level with this storm, despite all of the forecasts.

    I would love to see more on the interaction between the off shore storm
    and the upper 500 mb low. There appears to be some nice lifting going on and Easterly fetch at 850mb.

    If we are to make those totals it’s coming from upper air dynamics and not
    the precipitation shield of that ocean liner of a storm. Each run I see, it’s
    farther out in the ocean.

    1. JPD….when will your office make a decision about closing? Our crisis management team is meeting at 11:00 and I will obviously disclose that there is the potential of lesser amounts. Of course the timing is also a huge factor. Our footprint is rather large in Massachusetts so making the decision to close does not come easy. Ugh!

      1. Sue, I do not know.
        All I can tell you is that the facilities manager met me at the door
        as I walked in. Everyone at the coffee station was asking me.
        I asked HR to obtain the latest employee phone list.

        Our executive director is not in yet.

        I’d say they won’t make it until this afternoon sometime.

        Good luck

  15. I sincerely hope that if the 12z models don’t adjust further west today, that the NWS and tv forecasts adjust down their snowfall amounts.

    Because if superintendents see the current snowfall projections maintained this evening, every district east of Worcester will close this evening and I don’t think that will need to happen.

    1. I do agree that the bust potential is present especially for places like Worcester. i do not agree with the NWS snowfall prediction of 12-18 inches for Worcester. That is way too high in my opinion.

      1. You read my mind, Sue.

        Tom, are you basing this on what you also believe is a big bust potential?

      2. I’d like the superintendents to wait on this one and make the call tomorrow morning, instead of tonight. Certainly, if it’s bad, cancel. But, if tomorrow morning, it’s obvious 4-6 with less on the pavements is more likely, then maybe we can get the day in.

    3. This is a really tough one. I just wish the storm were coming up the coast or not.
      This upper level Wild Card has us all held hostage. Without that upper
      feature, it wouldn’t snow a flake in Boston.

  17. I have no doubt it snows tomorrow.

    However, if the 850/700 mb snows miss east, there will be lighter snows that won’t accumulate as well. The surface temps will also be a 1F or 2F higher because of that lower intensity snow.

    If this were January, the connection btwn the 500 mb feature and the coastal low would be good for 6-10 on its own, but its March and if there isn’t heavy snow, bust, bust, bust.

    1. I certainly agree intensity is key.

      I want to share my link from earlier. This is from last night’s Euro, but
      it shows some of the upper air dynamics.

      I invite you to look carefully at the 850mb Vorticity Advection which is strong indicator of upward motion in the atmosphere. This combined with a nice
      Easterly fetch off of the ocean could be enough to give us heavy snow.
      It also shows the interaction of the 500 mb feature.

      What do you think?

      Here’s the link:

      https://imgur.com/a/ywrmR

  19. We decided to move the appointment up an hour to 11 on Wednesday night I’ll take my chances on when I get home from snow removal hopefully Tuesday night and not Wednesday morning

    1. Ugh on Wednesday at 11 . I’ll taje my chance on whether I get home Tuesday night or Wednesday wee hrs

  20. One more thought on the upper air dynamics with this system.

    It appears to be that the NWS is going full tilt on this storm due to their
    faith in the mesoscale models. ie NAM and SREF along with WRF suite due
    to their ability to pick up on these subtle upper air features. Clearly much
    better than the freakin GFS does. The Euro picks up on it, but not to the extent
    that the mesos do.

    Just a thought.

    Comments?

  22. 9z SREF mean QPF for Boston was down around 0.3″. Still around 1.8″ which would be a major event, but I think we’ll start seeing the NAM based products come back to reality soon.

    1. One would think. No other model is spitting out 2 feet+ like the NAM is. However, when the NAM does begin to wane (and it will), I do not think that means bust. I still see a solid foot or more east of 495 unless the main low remains further east than currently suggested. I think TKs numbers look good for the most part.

  23. Good morning, and thanks, TK…
    Just covered 75 pages in first period. (exaggeration alert, but I was flying)
    We have mid-semester exams on April 2-3 (with no school on March 30 ~ Good Friday) and have to cover the material in the curriculum that’s on the exam. Can’t push the exams back because of the few days the seniors have in the fourth term.
    We make up the weather days at the end of the year (term four) which make the first semester and the third term very short.

    JPD: How is Mrs. OS feeling?

  24. Thanks Vicki for posting those snow predictions. As I responded above to Jimmy’s post I mentioned that I had 53.8 inches for Boston but wasn’t quite sure. Now it is confirmed! We will see how close I come depending on what happens tomorrow.

    I would need 11.5 if my math is correct.

    1. I heard Elliot Abrams mention the Blizzard of 1888, too. Growing up, I remember that was storm that was measured again all other snowstorms before the Blizzard of 1978.

      The April Fools Storm of 1997, did a majority of the snow fall during the day or at night? I can’t remember. I remember that it was a very warm and very nice Easter Sunday and the TV was running a scroll at the bottom of the screen with Blizzard Warnings. I remember being a little angry at the TV stations thinking you can’t play April Fools jokes with the news until I found out it was real.
      Anyone remember if the 1997 storm was predominately a daytime or night event?

      2. Captain,

        The majority of the snow fell at night during the 1997 storm.

        I read a nice book about the Blizzard of 1888. I can’t remember
        the name of it, but it was great. It said places like Bridgeport
        CT received 50 inches, while Boston had about 16 with it mixing
        with rain for a good portion. Interesting read.

        1. The book I have had Boston with about a foot and the precip literally went back and forth between rain and snow. I have always wondered what our modern radar loops would have looked like with all those pretty greens, pinks and blues around Boston. 🙂

          I also have a calendar photo of Boston Common right after the storm with heavy wet pasty snow on the ground and tree limbs. Very pretty.

          1. I recall we lost power for somewhere around three days. We ran out of wood for the fireplace. Mac and I finally tracked some down at a garden center in Wayland. We trudged back into the house, very pleased with our purchase. The kids (and friends of theirs who had enjoyed the adventure with us) met us at the door looking like the cat that swallowed the canary. They waited until we were inside and flipped the light switch and lit up the house with the returned power.

  25. Just doing a little comparison between the 6Z NAM and the 12Z NAM.
    The 12Z NAM has more of an expansive and heaby precipitation field well
    to the West and NW of the center. Could be quite impactful up here.

  26. the 12Z NAM is most definitely a bigger HIT than the 6Z run.
    The NAMS simply are NOT backing down, not in the slightest.

    1. Perhaps not in terms of total snow. On the surface map, it looked close
      and more intense. In any case, NOT backing down.

    1. Hmmm – looking as if my son’s trip to spend his birthday with his son in southern RI will need to be put on hold. Thanks for this info, JJ. I’ll send it along to my son.

  36. I am reading the 12z RGEM has come back NW from 6z and is a big hit for eastern MA with good banding all the way back into central MA/CT.

  39. many of the ensemble members of the euro agree with the Nam…… as does the canadian ensembles and gfs ensembles.
    GFS ensembles are in the range of 966 to 973 around benchmark
    EURO ensembles in the range of 961 to 973 within benchmark to outside benchmark
    canadian ensembles in line with euro/nam

    It will be highly dependent on how far the heavy bands of precip make it west and north from the center.
    I am thinking a general 5-10 with some seeing up to 18 inches across eastern mass with Blizzard conditions, with best chance of Blizzard criteria being met on the south shore as well as the higher snowfall amounts. I feel like there could be some enhancement off the ocean as well….. Rain looks to likely mix in on the cape as well as it being more of a wetter snow.

        1. I have no idea. I was only in 3rd grade at the time. All I remember is getting some snow days off. 🙂

    1. A though on this. I do not believe that the GFS is handling the full effects
      of the interaction between the off shore system and the Northern Stream
      500mb low. In short, these snow totals are likely under done, even though they
      are up a tad from previous runs.

      1. Totally agree.
        In addition to its thermal profiles being f’d up, I really
        don’t think it is handling the upper air dynamics interaction
        very well at all.

        It is time to go totally with the Mesoscale models.

        Not for nothing, it appears that is exactly what the NWS is doing.

  43. Blizzard Warnings now up for North and South Shores, all of Plymouth County, Cape and MV…

      1. Not for Boston I didn’t think it was north shore as well I just thought south . Harvey has it coming between 1-3 but not getting going till 5

  45. I think it’s safe to say now we are in for it and if anything numbers will need to be adjusted up not down . Blizzard warning up for south shore which Plymouth county could be in for the highest totals .

  51. If that thing does track a little further NW then those higher totals may extend back into the western areas. To me this feels like those storms in 2015 when I missed out on the big accumulations.

    1. Watch where that outer deformation band sets up tomorrow….could get back somewhere into CT if we are lucky but you may be a bit too far west. We’ll see.

  52. 12z GFS late Tues into Wed snow up to CT with 990 low pressure south.
    Then 961 low near benchmark in just over two weeks. I am not buying any of these just throwing it out there.

  54. I would like to see that foot area nudge back west. If that verifies I would be happy with a 6-8 inch snowfall.

    3. Its complete luck of the draw where those heavier bands set up. The RGEM has one over me and the HRDPS has the outer band all the way back to JJ. These are usually one of the trickiest parts of the forecast in these storms.

    4. I do believe the jackpot on this one is through the Plymouth county areas from hingham hitting all the towns to Plymouth

  59. I hope you right jpdave. It seems this winter it’s always southeastern mass is the jackpot or up towards the west. You can never win in the northshore lol. I hope the heavy band sets further west so we also sit under it for the pivot

    1. I would think he will have to expand his higher totals into Boston and westward to some extent, but we will see.

      Only The Topkatt knows. 😉

        1. op Cat, the most effectual
          Top Cat, whose intellectual
          Close friends get to call him T.C.
          Providing it’s with dignity

          Top Cat
          The indisputable leader of the gang
          He’s the boss, he’s the pip
          He’s the championship
          He’s the most tip top
          Top Cat

          Yes he’s the chief, he’s the king
          But above everything
          He’s the most tip top
          Top Cat

            1. No, I was referring to The Shadow, that old radio show back in the 1930s. My parents talked about it all the time. Couldn’t get enough of it from what I can gather. I believe he was like a Batman type of superhero.

              1. ohhhhh – before my time but I do know what you are referring to. I think I made a comment the other day about only the shadow knows….clearly, I had no idea what I was referring to 🙂

  61. If professors did not decide to shove a bunch of work towards their students during spring break that would of been great, Im bogged down with two 7 to 10 page papers due Tuesday. And a project in R.studio. 🙁 This is why I laugh when people say we have it easy.

    end of rant, I took a little break, I think 10 to 20 inches east of I95 with Blizzard conditions Someone might get two feet but I think most will be within the 10 to 18 inch range. areas west of I95 I think will get 5-10 with 3-5 CT river Valley. At this time. thats what I am thinking, Will hopefully post some maps later today when I get time.

  63. I sincerely thought winter was done for at the end of February. It looked and felt that way. But, of course I should have known better. I will no longer make any predictions, bold or otherwise.

    1. Don’t worry man…hell I am sticking to a bust for tomorrow regardless of what computers are telling people (when you think about it…we are listening to machines haha…). I thought it was over too. Even TK’s predication more or less called for an early Spring (from way back).

  64. I still need to see the 12z EURO before true discouragement sets in.

    I’m only at partial discouragement at the moment. 🙂 🙁

      1. Just a lot of tree damage, coastline damage, power outages and like to see our area get a break.

        Since December 22nd, including vacations and missed days due to weather cancellations, I really think we have been out of schools more calendar days than in school.

        For me, teaching and learning has a flow to it. Its been so choppy lately, so, I’m 99% sure we are looking at a day off tomorrow and if we get 15″ of somewhat wet snow combined with 50 mph wind gusts, then forget it, Wednesday and possibly Thursday could be cancelled due to power outages.

        So, that’s why I am discouraged. 🙂 🙂

          1. We’ll make due I guess !!

            Good luck to you, you and your crew look like you have quite the challenge coming.

    1. Models are now showing a larger precip field on the NW side of the low. It will all depend on how far west the Heavy bands make it. I have a bad feeling that it will stay to far east at the moment.

      1. FWIW my heart is sitting somewhere in my stomach right now.

        The blowdryer brigade will NOT give up.

    2. oh my lord, that is 7pm tomorrow night !!! What the heck amounts will that lead to if its been heavy well before that ?

  67. I wish the coast can get a break, but its part of the life of someone who lives on the coast and climate change will continue to make it worse. I to be honest, think this is a good learning experiance of why we should not be building on something that is in constant flux. The coast is going to move, its going to change. Its natural to do so. The coastal areas are adjusting to rising sea level, What we need to do is pull back because despite popular belief the ocean beats rock. Its honestly stupid to build stuff on the coast.

    1. Agreed ….

      However, the 1st storm caused damage and power outages inland. Interior Marshfield and Pembroke …. Hanson, Rockland, you name it …. we had a winter hurricane down here. The damage up to 15 miles INLAND was incredible. This wasn’t the typical shore roads and beach houses beating !!

      Then the last storm was inland damage from the wet snow on the trees.

      Immediate coastal troubles tomorrow are not a big impact because the astro tides are so low.

      So, I agree with your premise Matt, totally. But that’s been the hard part of the 3 storm barrage, its hardly been confined to the coast.

      1. So true, Tom. Framingham just got all of its power back this morning. However, some of the areas that have power also have trees still hanging on wires. They will lose power again unless something is done in the next few hours. There are still small pockets out here that are

        Although not building on the coast sounds like a great plan, if we are not going to build where there are problems, then we need to clear tornado alley, pretty much the entire states of California and Texas, a good portion of Florida and thousands of miles of homes on both coasts. That is just a start.

        We also need to stop worrying about ski areas because they do not get snow.

    2. Forget Tuckerman’s

      Skiing and tubing on coast guard hill in Humarock til May 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  71. I hit the like button with this tweet from Ryan Hanrahan for CT
    Snow totals will be going up starting at 4 p.m. statewide. Combination of a bump to the NW with the storm AND the potential for snow:liquid ratios better than 12:1.

    1. Saw it and replied. Thank you because I don’t always see things UP in the comments. Before my time also 🙂

  76. Keep pushing back west. From Ed Vallee.
    European is a foot or more from the CT River east. Few inches back to NYC. Wow.

    2. There is a going to be a swath of people getting 12-18″ somewhere in CT where that outer band sets up

  80. Mark EURO still has that coastal storm threat for middle of next week.
    Could we have a 4 peat with Nor’easters???

    1. It does. A slightly more offshore track this time but yet another snow event as modeled. Plenty of time to watch this one. 4 in a row would be absolutely nuts!

  83. Yes I am going to add to my forecast, just can’t do it yet – 2 unexpected errands and then a long away from blog tonight. I’ll fit it in somewhere in between.

  85. For now I added 2 inches to the bottom # and 4 to everything else.

    8-16 broad, 16-22 in the heavier bands. I still have a few concerns about maximizing the potential. I didn’t issue a new blog post, just edited the old one. No time to do anything else yet. Tonight I am going to attempt to get the early morning blog out before 2AM.

    1. That’s a tricky setup. Just too far apart and the southern stream storm gets a slingshot launch outta here faster than modeled.

          1. They have it over a 2 hour span S to N. I think it takes about 4 or 5 hours, a bit later than they have it in the northern areas.

          2. I know you didn’t ask me but it looks to start in the city later than that. More like 2 a.m. with an end game by 7 p.m. Tuesday. At this point, it doesn’t matter a whole lot since all commutes will be impacted.

            1. Actually I meant to say about 2AM for Boston, thanks!

              Re SAK’s blog: He usually updates it only once a week on Sunday nights, but once in a while if a big event is coming he’ll put an extra update out. But I believe he’s not able to do that this time.

              1. Thanks for the update on SAK’s blog. It’s always a good read. I’m sure if he was able to update, he would increase his numbers to correlate with the new data output.

    1. Thanks for doing this! It humors me that they have increased amounts exactly over the blizzard warning areas. Blizzard warning areas may experience blizzard conditions but that does not always equate to more snow as we all know.

  104. To TK,

    I am actually hoping for the low end of ranges this one time around. Do I have a decent shot at that?

  105. Jim Cantore: “not only is this thing going to bomb, it’s probably going to bomb twice”.

    LOL.

  110. Cannot deny the west trend. My idea on the lower numbers is going to go down in flames. Important to understand that a shift east would’ve cut the amounts dramatically… but that shift simply didn’t happen. It’s gone the other way instead. Another snow day on the way for many.

    I’m still interested in seeing what the ratios end up being like tomorrow given the timing and the Sun angle. As usual, there will probably be some surprises.

  113. Keep a close eye on HRDPS snowfall forecast. The most consistent run to run so far.

    2. I think the Nam has been consistent. With the exception of the outer cape I’m suspecting nobody under a foot . What does HRDPS mean

      1. If you look at the NAM’s output over the last couple days, it’s been consistently above everything else, but its jackpot zones have moved fairly frequently run to run.

  114. The HRDPS has fairly large snowfall totals, but not off the charts. The NAM’s numbers have been inconsistently over-inflated. The ECMWF suddenly shifting from a “ho-hum” snow forecast to the “end of the world” is not a sudden sign that the model “figured the storm out” either.

    The HRDPS has amounts similar to what I have adjusted to, but it actually has the highest amounts extended all the way out through Cape Cod. I don’t reflect this in my forecast at the moment, but we cannot discount the region south and east of Plymouth MA receiving some of the greatest snow totals when this all winds down.

      1. If the wind gusts verify, the numbers may not matter. You might have 2 ft in one spot and nothing in another, especially down our way.

      2. I agree with Tom in the precise #’s won’t matter too much but I say 10+ medical, 15+ Pembroke.

  115. HRDPS = high resolution deterministic prediction system. It’s basically a limited area, high res version of the GEM. It’s also performed fairly well the last several events.

    1. And right after that, the 18z HRDPS inflates its totals on Cape Cod to over 2 feet and makes that the jackpot zone… HAHAHA

        1. Right after I praised the snow totals though it showed me what I think is too much snow for Cape Cod.

    2. The chance of reaching 20 is minimal. I think the least we’ll see is 8, the most, 16. The 8-inch spread even at this point is taking banding uncertainty into account, as well as the possibility of some snow showers/squalls that wrap around the back side tomorrow night.

      1. Thanks! I hope we sit under s heavy bands that pivots on top of us. They always seems to set up either further west or southeastern mass

      3. I am here to say, If we receive ONLY 8 inches, I for one
        would treat this “monster snow storm” as a run of the mill
        Namby Pamby snow event. And I am dead serious.

        8 inch snow storms are Nothing in my book. Nothing.

        There, I said, so shoot me. 😀

      1. Made spaghetti carbonara tonight. I figured I’d have leftovers but I’m too used to Macs and I failed.

        1. I’m sure it came out great Vicki! That’s my fav by the way. My mother in law makes a killer one

        1. Oh good. The one in West Roxbury (or is it Roslindale?) is a zoo on a sunny Sunday afternoon so I can only imagine before a big storm

          1. It was W. Roxbury, and although fairly crowded, I had no problem obtaining what I needed without getting aggravated. 😀

    1. That may be, but the snow will be drier in the Boston area, netting
      close to the same amount of snow. We shall see.

  120. I refuse to believe. Camp Bust is open…lots of vacancies haha. Anyone? (Tumbleweed rolls by)…

        1. Works for me. And for the record, I learn more from people who do not agree with me. Respectful dialog is a powerful tool.

  121. FWIW,

    I was just out and I have to say I walked into a pretty Stiff NE breeze on my
    way to the store from the parking lot (for exercise purposes, I park as far away from the store entrance as possible).

    If it’s like this now, what will it be like tomorrow AM???

      1. You are supposed to be going out. You have answered questions and cleared up mysteries…….do I have to stop there on my way to camp bust to push you out the door 😉

  126. I’m going to toss this out there now because I GUARANTEE YOU that thousands of folks are going to look outside, or go out between 6AM & 8AM and call “dud”.

    The temps around eastern MA including Boston area are going to be near or above freezing for a few hours, even while snow is falling, and the roads are likely going to be just wet at first. You were told in advance. Pass it along. 🙂

      1. There is still the public mentality / expectation that a forecast of a foot of snow (for example) falling during the daytime, somehow means they are going to wake up to a foot of snow on the ground, BEFORE IT FALLS!

        That annoys me to no end. 😛

        1. Well it takes all kinds, doesn’t it.

          When I look out the window around 7-8 am, I am expecting about 3-6 inches of fresh snow on the ground. 😀

          2. Of course depending upon when it actually gets started. 😀 😀 😀 If it starts at 5AM, then I adjust
            my expectations. AND I will have a fair idea of when it should start by the time I retire later
            this evening.

        2. But all will most likely get that foot guaranteed. Not really anything now that avoids that

    3. Hahahahahaha ….. exactly.

      Our town put out an update and I know they are working hard. 1-3″ per hour starting overnight and the conditions will be bad by early morning.

      Oh well …..

    4. Your the expert but I definitely think there will be plenty on the ground by 8 maybe at least 6 inches . This will be starting by 5 & Harvey said by than all hell breaks loose . And more so if it starts before 5

      1. 6 inches by 8AM? Would you like to make a bet? I’m running a little low on cash lately. 😉

      1. I said between 6 and 8. Some may no longer be just wet by 8. You’re only focusing on the “top #”. 😛

  127. How about some 700mb banding signatures??? Compliments of the 23Z RAP.

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018031223/016/700hvv.conus.png

    Surface to go with it.

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018031223/016/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

    Note: on Pink echos.
    Just because Boston is in blue echoes does NOT mean it is snowing with
    less intensity. The pink echos are representing a much wetter snow
    making for a strong dbz echo.

    At least that is my thinking.

    Kuchera Snow as of 20Z

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018031223/016/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

    With this still going on:

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018031223/021/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

    RAP going BIG TIME!!!

    1. Nice Tom. I can readily see what you describe.
      And that “could” mean a bit tighter pass to the coast yet.

        2. And to your point Tom, look at the direction of the cloud deck in Massachusetts bending back toward the north in the last couple of frames. Fascinating.

  132. Probably not too much by sunrise.

    Surface temps probably will be coolest near the south coast and Cape first as they will get hit with heavy precip sooner.

    It’s not out of the question Boston and it’s suburbs maintain 35F to 37F all night and fall tomorrow when the heavier stuff arrives. And if it arrives from 4-6 am, it will take a bit of time to cool.

    This is why I’m not expecting a ton on the ground by 7 or 8.

    2. I respectfully disagree. At least more than 4-5 on ground by 8 and yes on main roads .

      1. 2-4 inches on the main roads by 8 a.m. and then snow accumulation picks up in earnest thereafter.

      1. I believe so. There is an FSU web address at the bottom of the chart. Ryan Hanrahan posted these.

  136. One thing I’m concerned about…if TK is right about the onset of the snow and what we will be seeing is that a lot of people will venture out to work in the morning only to try to make their way home later in the day during the height of the storm. So…IMHO let it start snowing a lot earlier so people stay off the road.

    2. Waiting for some 9pm obs but at 8 it looks like precip is reaching the ground in southern NJ and eastern PA.

    1. Some locations will see 20+ inches of snow and yes, I’m copping out by putting in the +.

      1. I think down my way is the jackpot towns like Hanover , Hanson, Pembroke , bridgewater , Halifax, Duxbury someone is going over 20 inches

    2. That’s the thing. Ratio may be 12:1 in Boston and 7 or 8:1 towards the Cape
      for an almost equal accumulation.
      To be sure, the wetter snow has a higher impact.

  139. After this storm all spots where records are kept in SNE will have above normal snowfall for the winter 17-18 unless we have a huge bust here.

        1. Just goes to show you it will be snowing in Boston by 2 roads will deteriorate very fast . Tough commute tomorrow for folks heading in

  144. 9 PM Obs.

    Logan:

    Last Updated: Mar 12 2018, 8:54 pm EDT
    Mon, 12 Mar 2018 20:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Overcast and Breezy
    Temperature: 38.0 °F (3.3 °C)
    Dewpoint: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 79 %
    Wind: from the East at 24.2 gusting to 29.9 MPH (21 gusting to 26 KT)
    Wind Chill: 27 F (-3 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1013.8 mb
    Altimeter: 29.94 in Hg

  145. Found a 9PM obs from NYC, Kennedy where it is raining

    New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY
    (KJFK) 40.6392N 73.7639W

    Light Rain and Breezy
    39.0 °F
    Last Updated: Mar 12 2018, 8:51 pm EDT
    Mon, 12 Mar 2018 20:51:00 -0400
    Weather: Light Rain and Breezy
    Temperature: 39.0 °F (3.9 °C)
    Dewpoint: 28.9 °F (-1.7 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 67 %
    Wind: from the East at 20.7 gusting to 27.6 MPH (18 gusting to 24 KT)
    Wind Chill: 29 F (-2 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1009.9 mb
    Altimeter: 29.83 in Hg

  147. Jpdave the fsu site u posted. To make it obvious, the darker is the heavier snowbands Right? And also which one would we look at the 900 500? Or the 800 600 chart? They both show different results

  148. Also do not be surprised if Boston starts as rain around 3AM and rains as late as 4 or even 5AM. It’s going to be quite mild at the surface and if there is not enough intensity in the precipitation those first few hours, this is what will happen there, right on the shoreline.

      1. Yeah I keep hoping that big beautiful sun behind those storm clouds tomorrow will work some magic.

        When do you think it will wind down enough tomorrow to shovel without having to shovel again? Ha.

      2. What are thes little hints you keep tossing out . Harvey just said amounts are going to increase .

            1. Also, if Harvey changes a forecast it doesn’t necessarily mean I am going to change it. He makes his forecast, I make mine. I adjusted my #’s up earlier and am happy with what I have at the moment.

            2. Harvey just said he will be increasing his numbers Tk do you agree . Do you think we can start final clean up by midnight tomorrow Tk

              1. Not necessarily agreeing at the moment. He’s reacting to a short range model run that is fairly unstable.

                And yes you can definitely start final cleaning around then, but we do have to watch for bands of snow showers at times through Wednesday.

    2. Agree with most of what you said Tom (and TK’s January comment). I will say this that the other night once the snow took over my street was covered pretty quickly. Also I have not noticed a lot of melting around here (well except in my front yard for some reason) with some March sun over the past couple of days. Also not sure if plays into anything but water temps are slightly colder (on average) now than in January.

      As I said earlier if this storm is going to be as big as predicted I want that snow to be piling up by 7 or 8 am so people don’t go out out a travel. It’s like TK said earlier…everyone will be saying bust if there’s only a little snow on the ground by then.

  155. Eric mentioned another nor’easter possible next Tuesday-Wednesday as the warmup has been cancelled due to more blocking this weekend with temps staying in the 30’s.

    I am beginning to wonder if the pattern doesn’t change until early April now.

  156. 00z NAM is a fully phased monster. Everyone is crushed. Going to be some epic (historic?) totals on this run.

    1. Awesome isn’t it. Hey, even a broken clock….

      Could this be the NAM finishing strong for the season…?

  157. Mark from Ryan Hanrahan. You do very well on this run.
    Beast mode on the NAM. More phased, more west, more snow. Big jump in the latest SREF too. Heaviest still will be around Boston but things looking worse here by the hour.

    2. Boston NWS in about 10 minutes :

      We have seen the 00z NAM and are considering adding to snow projections.

    1. Crushed. Obliterated. Destroyed. Epic. Historic.

      If TK isn’t going to hype, someone has to do it!

      I’m am just running out of ominous words to use….

  162. Winds have been picking up for the past couple of hours. Mostly out of the east with gusts nearing 30mph. RI and CT stations reporting winds more out of the NE

  163. Now the snow in NY state is moving from SSE to NNW

    It’s motion has backed so quickly the last few hours.

    2. LMAO. He’s probably running around the neighborhood with a cape on and some leftover new years eve party noise makers.

  165. The last run is not always the best run. Keep that in mind. 😉

    NAM is known to have “latent heat” issues even into the event itself.

          2. how much beer are we talking about and what kind :P, then again, i’m more of a tequila and vodka drinker 😉

    2. The GFS snow totals will be half that of the NAM. Meet them in the middle and we probably have our answer.

  170. Boston Public Schools have extended the school year to June 25 as they have used three snow days to date.

    1. Just three. Odd. Sutton would have ended June 11 but with snow days now ends June 21. That was a typical day when I was a kid in the dark ages. But then we didn’t start before Labor Day.

  174. Blizzard warnings up for the Cape and MV…not sure if they were just posted or not for those areas but I just noticed them.

    1. been up for a bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they extended them further west based on the current state of the winds from the storm as I already have gusts going over 25 here in Billerica out of the Northeast.

    1. I wouldn’t be surprised. Literally every model run keeps backing this thing in further. It’s a beast. Will be one for the record books in eastern MA.

  177. Looks like it will be puking snow, sad to miss but still down in NC finishing up a few things before I head home on Friday. Enjoy the snow and be safe.

  178. Judah Cohen was predicting 64 inches for Boston this winter. If this pans out after this storm it won’t be far from his prediction. Boston currently has 42.3 inches of snow for the season.
    Looking at the latest HRRR you posted Mark and seeing the NAM so close to getting into double digit snowfall potential where I am.

  182. We have a touch of ocean snow preceding the main event.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.3130434782608696&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=326.5277777777776&centery=390.1388888888889&transx=-73.4722222222224&transy=150.1388888888889&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25348566&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25348568&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    2. Old salty I asked Tk & I’ll ask you when do you think we could probably start the final cleanup by 9. Having a quit time will help me get through this long event

      1. Looking at the NAMS, it doesn’t look to quit until about 10PM.
        Perhaps light enough to knock off at 9, but I wouldn’t count on it.

        that’s strictly looking at the NAMs.

  184. The snow I saw was simply a snow shower off of the ocean. Not snowing
    at the moment.

    It still looks to me like the main event gets going around 2AM in Boston, give or take.
    About to crash for the night. I expect to be up early.

    Good night all.

  185. Latest RAP, RPM, HREF, and now the CMC all continue to up the ante.

    RGEM and GFS have backed off. GFS is complete garbage.

  186. Portions of Southeast Mass especially Plymouth County looks to have some rain mixed in at the start looking at radar. I am thinking Boston might see some rain drops on east and south sides of the city.

  187. Sorry to be missing out! Currently 52 degrees in Jerusalem going up to 68 with a 0% chance of precipitation for the next 10 days…

  191. The mild lower levels are showing themselves with rain falling on the islands, Newport, Providence, New Bedford, and Taunton.

    1. Funny. 😉

      Meanwhile the HRRR has backed off a couple inches from the 04z to 05z run.

  196. Rain at Logan, Norwood, Provincetown, Newport, Providence. Still 38 at Logan. They will rain for 1 to 2 hours I think.

  198. Temps have actually gone up 1 or 2 degrees last hour in a lot of east coastal MA stations. Lots of 39’s showing up, still 38 Logan.

      1. I was pretty confident of the rain at the start, for up to a couple hours especially shoreline, but no way does it last. 😉

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