Thursday Forecast

99 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
The blocking pattern rolls on but for the next stretch of days it will place us in a cold and dry regime with dominant high pressure, centered in eastern Canada, and a fairly persistent north to northwest flow over the northeastern US. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts to 25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)
Blocking pattern hangs on, watching a couple storm threats during this period. Early feeling is that the first threat may stay mostly south of the region though if it comes close enough snow/mix would be possible, then later in the period another system brings a snow/mix/rain threat. The Vernal Equinox occurring on March 20 may be the first day of spring, but that doesn’t mean we suddenly flip to warm and sunny, not around here.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)
A drier trend but temperatures may average on the cooler side of normal as the pattern blocks any real warm-ups from occurring.

99 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. I demand that this no hype blog start being hyped about #FourEaster! (just made that up after seeing the hashtag above lol)

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Beautiful day out there. Seems like we have had a zillion of them with a few storms
    interspersed. Love this weather.

    re: #4 N’oreaster
    I have no strong feelings one way or the other on this.
    It does not look like it is set in stone by any stretch. Whatever is going on in
    the atmosphere, the models seem confused. Perhaps in a few more days, the situation will be clearer. Until then, enjoy some beautiful weather.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Anyone want to place bets on when my deck table puff pie will be completely melted !! 🙂

    1. No, but I will say SOONER than you think as I assume it gets plenty of Sun.
      If it is shady, then perhaps LATER. 😀

  7. Thanks TK !

    I was encouraged this morning by the projections for the middle of next week. 990’s mb low, we can handle. That shouldn’t have anywhere between 50 and 90 mph wind gusts. We hope 🙂 🙂 Also like the GFS’ version of a not too intense, strung out system.

      1. I am in Camp “I DON’T GIVE A CRAP”.
        Seriously, I am ready for SPRING, but if the snow Gods
        deem another big snow hit, I will thoroughly enjoy it.
        Just the way I am wired and I can’t help it. 😀

        I actually enjoy shoveling snow. Go Figure.

      2. I’m in Camp Tom and Sue….no more snow days and keep the power on for all….except maybe me 😉

    1. Something SERIOUSLY WRONG with that photo. Unless I am as blind as an old bat, I do not see one: ROBERT GORDON ORR

      C’MON give me a break. He was better than most in that photo)!*(&*(@&!#&*(&!@#*(&!@*(#&!@*(#&*(!#

      1. I noticed he was missing also. I’m not seeing Ted Williams either….but then I can be as blind as an old bat also!!

          1. I did also. And he was far superior to anyone we have now. And no Orr?? Really? Hard to say the name without the Awe.

    1. How do you define “in a row”?

      The counting northeastern is silly. It’s a blocking pattern with active Pacific jet. We happened to have 3 storms in 2 weeks. It’s happened before. It will happen again.

      1. Agree that it’s a bit silly, but it’s still fun to reminisce.

        I believe in 2011 we had 6 `nor’easters’ in a row. Active pattern coinciding with a Greenlandic block that year from late January through February with a sustained cold air intrusion from Canada (ie, snow pack that lasted for 6-8 weeks). The storms were not monsters, but they consistently produced over 8 inches in Boston.

        1. Thanks Joshua for that info. Other than this blog I don’t really keep up with social media but you just know there will undoubtedly be more hashtags until this blocking pattern ends.

      2. I am not so sure it is silly as much as it is a curious question. I don’t think implies anymore than appears. I’m still not sure what is causing the current pattern. I would think it has to be something weather related and like to understand it.

  13. FWIW, the telleconnectors look s little better at the end of the month for some better weather. Not saying spring busting out all over, but maybe a little less blocked up flow, negative PNA (slightly) and a neutral to positive AO.

    1. And we know that QPF is probably wrong with the gfs. Don’t bother yet but look at actual track and then decipher what may occur.

  15. That’s one long duration snow event on the 12z GFS (Tues night to Thursday depending on location). Snow totals are fairly significant, especially PA/NJ/NY/western CT.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018031512&fh=192

    Track stays off shore locking the cold air in pretty good. 12z CMC shows something similar. There’s definitely potential on the table here, whether this turns out into a longer duration more strung out system, or one more potent storm.

  16. Today Tiger Woods after playing 9 holes in the Arnold Palmer event became the stand alone favorite to win The Masters. Prior to the 9 holes, he was either 2nd or 3rd favorite.

    Yup, there are reasons to like and dislike Tiger Woods and I AM NOT POSTING WITH THE INTENT OF STARTING A TIGER DEBATE. It’s just incredible that someone could become one of a few favorites to win the Masters after playing just a couple of events in recent years and then suddenly become the top favorite after playing 9 holes. How can that be? Amazing!!

    1. My view of Tiger runs hot and cold, but I feel that he is a product of both his upbringing and his incredible passion. Greats do not become great without a single minded focus. And very often the snippets we see in the media fall very short of representing the individual.

      I have not been able to follow golf for nearly four years. I’d love to see him win another Masters. For the chance to watch him, I’d happily watch another Masters.

  17. Regarding the current blocking pattern. The cause was the atmospheric indices in the state they are in. This particular combo is strong blocking and frequent storms.

    1. Would a long duration strung out system mean far less wind resulting in fewer potential power outages?

  18. March snowfall to date at Logan = 21.8″

    That may be more or at least near equal to their total for January and February combined.

    1. So when it is all said and done, we end up with a front-loaded and tail-end-loaded winter. 😉

  19. 12Z euro doesn’t look too impressive either. I can’t see precip but surface low(s) way south and strung out

          1. Near the end of the run, it does a weird
            “Backing In” of a system to deliver a few inches
            of snow. Don’t need that after the 1st day of Spring, but then what have we got to do with it?
            😀

            We shall see what gives.

            Some conflicts in the model output, that is for sure.

  20. I wouldn’t let your guard down on next week. Lots of potential there. We are going to see many different model solutions in the next several days: big coastal storm, couple of smaller coastal storms in succession, strung out system or a complete miss. It’s all going to depend on how all the individual pieces of energy interact and come together, and the models are going to continue to struggle with that. I could see any of those solutions happening at this point but I like our chances for accumulating snow next week with that block still in place.

    After that? Could be the last hurrah as Blackstone mentioned….the teleconnections start to get unfavorable last week of March.

    1. Agree on next week. Right now, too many conflicting signals to rule out
      anything. We shall watch and see.

      But after what the region had endured, it deserves a BREAK!

      Let us hope so.

      2. Not sure what you mean by that….are you saying the last chance of a decent snowstorm often turns into something smaller? Or that this wont be the last hurrah – there will be more chances?

    3. Well, not sure about the last week of March, it may lag a little into early April, but if you want some semblance of spring, the telles are more favorable.

  21. A major thing working against a big storm next week: The 2 jet streams are going to be further apart and completely out of phase.

      1. Still have to watch it as some of what I said is based on model forecasts… we know how those can be.

  22. Killington getting pounded….

    3:08 pm 03/15/18–Wow, Killington fans, another 10 inches overnight! It’s been snowing for more than 48 hours now, and our storm total is a whopping 32 inches. We just hit 6 feet of snowfall so far this month, and we are charging into the best March skiing in years.

    1. You had made a comparison with Killington and Vail.

      This is from Arizona Snow Bowl, 12 miles North of downtown Flagstaff, AZ.
      Average snow season is 268 inches.

      Season Total To date:

      79”

      Pretty pathetic for them.

      I think last season they had something like 350 inches.

      1. im not the biggest fan of killington. I think of Stratton being superior over most mountains. I use to think of Stowe being the best, but Stratton over the past few years have taken that spot. Also feel VT skiing is superior to Maine and NH skiing. NH gets so Icy.

    1. Nicely done! Did you create that? Or just posted from elsewhere?
      I like to think that you created it.

  24. I would like to bid a fond farewell to all of my dear friends here. I have been convinced by my dear friend TK that there is only one news and weather (especially weather) source. It is of course the PATCH….the Framingham Patch, the Lowell Patch, the Springfield Patch, the Humarock Patch, the man in the moon Patch…..there are so many fine and upstanding sources to choose from that I may have to review each and every one daily 🙂

    1. You certainly will be well informed!!! But, if you find yourself receiving nothing
      but FAKE WEATHER, then by all means come back to WHW. 😀

    2. lmao!!! Don’t worry, this blog will be bought out soon and be called the Woods Hill Patch.

      2. Ahhh. That solves my dilemma. I’ll just stay here where I’m happy and work on the M&A. Thank you your highness

  25. It appears that there is another scenario for next week. The Tuesday-Wednesday storm would miss us but a follow-up would get us on Thursday. I heard that scenario from Harvey and Pete.

    For now, I get the impression that any precip would favor snow over rain as a cold high will very much be in play.

  27. Daughter and family just came in from sledding on hill in backyard. Daylight after dinner in winter is great. Four year old grand is after nana’s heart. Without my knowing it, he shoveled a path to my deck chair and cleared the chair so I can sit out at night.

  28. Remember the middle of last March? Very similar to this year. There was snow on the ground then and a sustained period of harsh cold. It’s not as cold this year, but it’s fairly cold, and the cold is persistent, and there’s snow on the ground. Looking ahead, if Boston gets snow this April it would be the 3rd straight year of measurable snow in April.

    1. Your memory is impeccable as is Jimmy’s as well. I barely remember the weather just last month let alone last year at this time. 🙂

  29. The snow from that storm last March was on the ground a lot longer than a typical snow after a March storm. In fact the day after that storm highs were only in the 20s.

  30. Brief interlude here on WHW. Just had a chance to peek at the 18Z gfs.
    As alluded to by Matt, the GFS has a storm a week from today and NOT Tuesday.

    It would be snow as depicted and a moderate event.
    Here is the Kuchera Snow. Remember, March Sun Angle on March 22!
    And intensity would not be what it was the other day, therefore, these amounts
    would have to be cut down even if this were to verify.

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018031518/198/snku_acc.us_ne.png

  31. TK, I realize I can look this up but our time together matters more I hope…

    General weather for Germany, Holland and Belgium next ten days please? I fly out tomorrow night for nine days. Work and hopefully some play too.

    Thanks,

    Wade

  32. I’ve got it, I think. Finally, an analogy to sort of throw out there and see what people think.

    Does everyone agree that today’s athletes are bigger, stronger, faster than athletes of 50 years ago? Watch any tape of athletes in the 1960s and it’s stunning to see the difference with today’s athletes.

    Yet today’s athletes still skate the same way, swing the bat the same way, shoot the same way than those 50 years ago. They just do it faster, with more fury and from further distances than their 1960s counterparts.

    Somehow though, in weather, because it’s happened before, it’s like that means nothing has changed.

    Well, using the sports analogy, of course we’ve seen 3 northeasters before, but like the current athletes being bigger and stronger, I’m of the opinion that in a similar way, while the atmosphere works the same way as it did 50 years ago, because of that extra 1C it has to work with, the storm’s themselves are stronger than their counterparts of only 50 years ago. Same pattern, similar tracks, but stronger systems with that extra energy to play with.

      1. Well if the Earth is 4 billion years old….and let’s say we have 300 years of decent accurate weather data…that means we have ~.0000075% of weather/climate history.

        Now explain to me how I should take that seriously.

          1. you need to look past your typical tools weatherwiz. there are alot of things out there that goes passed recorded weather conditions to show us what passed climate been and what different parameters been like. We can go well passed 300 hundred years. You can look at rocks, soil, fossils, Ice, Coral reefs. For those that say climate models are inaccurate, You have no idea how they work, and the fun fact of the day, Most are more accurate than your daily weather model. I have seen them at work. This is part of my major, I have used some of this Very cool tech, and some of which rather recent.

  33. Retrac, rather cold weekend ahead in Holland: It was 50F today and warmer in recent days, but as I mentioned yesterday a brief cold spell will impact the low countries this weekend with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper 20s. This said, it’ll be mostly dry, though the southern part of the country as well as Belgium may have a touch of snow. Milder by Monday and Tuesday with temps in the mid 40s during the day and mid to upper 30s at night. Once a true southwesterly takes hold by the middle of next week temps should rise further to around 50F. Note, it will not feel warm, even when it’s 50F. Not cold, but a bit raw. I don’t know the weather for Germany. It’s a much larger country with a lot of variation. Its climate is less temperate than the Netherlands and Belgium. Colder in the winter and warmer in the summer. My guess is it’ll be quite cold there this weekend and even part of early next week. But certainly the western part of Germany will feel the effects of the moderating westerlies by mid-week. Could be a different story in the eastern part.

    Have a great trip!

  34. Retrac, just checked the Dutch weather site again, Saturday is going to feel very cold (lots of wind and temps hovering around 34F) so be prepared. It’ll get better after that, but will feel cold or raw for several more days.

    1. We’re headed for 110 inches for the season. After the 11th nor’easter in a row (sometime in April) we’ll sit at 112 inches. And we’ll also be stark raving mad.

    2. A local TV met tonight, just before declaring they’d not hint at any #’s for next week, said that “a foot is possible”. I do not think it was a wise statement to make on-air. But that’s just me. Apparently this is going to be the new norm and I’m not taking part in it.

  36. Sorry folks I had a long evening out at an event…

    Retrac, sounds like Joshua has you covered on this one. I have nothing of value to add as it would essentially be the same thing he already told you. 🙂 Best of luck!

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