Friday Forecast

103 Comments

2:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
The continued blocking pattern will result in 5 days of cold and mainly dry weather with the exception of a few snow showers from a reinforcing cold front on Saturday.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 32-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)
Blocking continues and the next storm threat, a bit delayed from the previous outlook, looms for the first half of this period. The details are unknown, but as it stands now there will be some risk of rain/mix/snow from one or two low centers passing south of the region. Still a chance that high pressure may be strong enough to force the bulk of these systems far enough south to be a graze or even a miss. Should be dry by the very end of the period as temperatures remain below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)
Overall pattern looks drier again, and not quite as cold, relative to normal, but not seeing any signs of a bit warm-up either.

103 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Second – Finally on Spring Break starting tonight — so excited I can’t sleep but 12 min behind Dave.

  4. I guess that would make me the “fourth”. Let’s not go through THAT again. 😀

    Pete noted on air that the cold highs haven’t really been able to suppress storms south enough to keep us out of precipitation entirely. I sort of got the impression that “on paper” they should have in some cases. Does that make sense?

    1. Implying there is “something wrong”? No, that’s not correct. The set-up was not there for complete suppression.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Regardless whether the next system(s) is/are a hit, graze or miss, it/they do not
    appear to be particularly strong. So, even if it is all snow, with the sun angle being
    what is is and being past the Vernal equinox, I don’t see it accumulating all that much.
    Factoring that in, I think we would be looking at something like 3-4 or 3-6 inches at best.

    Just some early thoughts. Euro and gfs snow totals look decent, but they are not factoring in March sun and surface temperatures.

    kuchera snow

    gfs

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018031606/174/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    euro

    https://imgur.com/a/a7XXr

  6. Oh, interesting tidbit mentioned by Eric the other night and I don’t recall seeing it here.

    The Spring Equilux was on Wednesday, March 14th.

    Spring Equilux
    (equilux: equal day & night—12 hrs of daylight & 12 hrs of
    nightime)

    The reason it occurs earlier is mainly due to bending of light.

    check this out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzUs42u6BdA

        1. They will. I copied and saved it and will send to nine year old after she gets home from school. I can watch with 10 year old

          Thank you

  7. I was saying to some friends a day or two ago “watch as TV mets start saying *if* heavily in regards to a fourth Nor’Easter. Also watch them slowwwwly walk back their apocalyptic way of talking about the next system.”

    Seems as early as this morning that has begun.

    1. I thought that there has been too much premature talk about an additional Nor’Easter. Now they have to graciously back off. Love it.
      We still “could” be impacted by something. Calling that something
      a Nor’Easter “may” be somewhat of a stretch as it looks now.

      1. It’s because they got to be right essentially three times in a row. They probably figured “each one of these has been a lock this far out we can hype all the storms!” lmao

  11. Thanks TK, flying back today from RDU and much better condition then our flight down here on March 1st 🙂

  13. 18Z NAM for Monday Evening at 8 PM.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018031612/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

    500 mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018031612/nam_z500_vort_us_29.png

    250mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018031612/nam_uv250_us_29.png

    Pretty potent Southern Stream System.

    Notice the Northern Stream NW winds aloft that it will be bumping into, suggests that it does 1 of 2 things:

    1. Suppresses it South of us while remaining potent
    2. Suppresses it South of us while weakening it a good deal

    Still it is interesting to watch how this all plays out.

  14. im rather confident in saying that the first low slides south of the region. We want to watch the secondary low for the second half of the week.

  15. Philip and Matt,

    Yes that is understood. Just laying out how the NAM is handling the 1st
    system.

    Looks pretty threatening at the surface. 😀

    Either way, it will be a Southern Stream system with little or no phasing.

  16. Hmmmm – have we begun the acquisition of the patch…..

    Patch email blast headline

    Fourth Nor’easter delayed, but still likely

    https://patch.com/massachusetts/framingham/s/gdn13/ma-weather-forecast-fourth-noreaster-delayed-but-still-likely?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=alert

    Generally, I do not like finding fault with media because ultimately it is my responsibility to turn to a source that is reliable. I won’t find fault with the three main media stations that we have. In addition to the fact that I think they do a great job, it is far too reminiscent of why we left the BZ weather blog.

    Patch, however, is completely irresponsible and gives the meteorologists a really bad name. I’m probably wrong targeting them too. I have unsubscribed to their email blasts which should take them completely off my radar.

      1. I think they are local news sources. Many towns have a Patch that is specific to the town. I have not paid much attention in the past. Lately, it seems they are just plain making up weather.

  17. I am not sure who on here is a big movie goer, but this year is filled with great movies. Can’t wait till the end of this month 🙂

    1. I’ve never been a big movie goer. Waste of good money if you ask me, especially in light of everything going on in Hollywood. I haven’t seen a GOOD movie in years. Everything is all remakes and II and III iterations of original movies. No original ideas anymore and crappy CGI. No thanks. Ok, rant over. You may now continue with regularly scheduled weather programming.

      1. We watch a bunch of them either on Netflix for free or cheap on Google or if necessary on Demand with Comcast.

        Billboards wasn’t bad
        Lady Bird was good

        Waiting to see

        The Post
        Shape of Water
        Call me by my name

        Don’t want to purchase a movie

        There are many more we have seen, but I can’t even
        remember the name of them.

        1. ahh, you guys don’t like Marvel 😀 and Ace, college students have learned how to get free movies if you want a site you can facebook me 🙂

  18. Just saw a friend on Facebook post a map from last Sunday that read “next N’oreaster to hit Monday into Tuesday”, and tag all of her plow driver friends. This is how we invoke panic. Of course I commented that she was completely wrong in an effort in damage control.

  19. 12z GFS has a double barreled nor’easter next week. The first is stronger, second follow-up is a bit weaker. It’s a “two-for” as Cantore would say. Keeps the snow going for 48 hours….

    #1:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031612&fh=120

    #2:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031612&fh=138

    Snowmap:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018031612&fh=204

    Can we count this as #4 AND #5?

    And let’s not forget #6 that is threatening around the 3/25-3/26 🙂 Here’s the CMC’s rendition….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031612&fh=222

    That’s a cold look at the end of the run.

    1. Again I ask – is every snow storm potential going to be called a noreaster? We have specific criterion for blizzards we need a defintion for noreaster.

      1. As depicted by the GFS, both of these storms are moving right up the coast from the mid Atlantic to southeast of New England.
        Northeast track, east/northeast wind off the Atlantic, and shield of rain/snow up to its northwest up the coastline and into New England. To me, that fits the definition of a “coastal storm” or “nor’easter”

        If this were a SWFE, cutter or a clipper coming in from the west, different story.

    2. Oh also mark protip: click regions then click northeast. Copy the link from there. I want my maximum laziness encouraged. lmao

  20. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

    221 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2018 VALID 12Z MON MAR 19 2018 – 12Z FRI MAR 23 2018

    …LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK… …SPRAWLING SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK… …OVERVIEW… EAST… WINTER WILL NOT GO OUT QUIETLY IN THE EAST AS A COMPLEX EVOLUTION BRINGS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO REDEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUE-FRI. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH HOW (AND WHERE) THE MANY PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST INTERACT BUT THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL REMAINS QUITE LOUD FOR AT LEAST AN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC (AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS) INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS.

  21. From Wikipedia:

    A nor’easter (also northeaster; see below) is a macro-scale cyclone. The name derives from the direction of the strongest winds that will be hitting an eastern seaboard of the northern hemisphere: as a cyclonic air mass rotates counterclockwise, winds tend to blow northeast-to-southwest over the region covered by the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. Use of the term in North America is associated with several different types of storms, some of which can form in the North Atlantic Ocean and some of which form as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. The term is most often used in the coastal areas of New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Typically, such storms originate as a low-pressure area that forms within 100 miles (160 km) of the shore between North Carolina and Massachusetts. The precipitation pattern is similar to that of other extratropical storms. Nor’easters are usually accompanied by very heavy rain or snow, and can cause severe coastal flooding, coastal erosion, hurricane-force winds, or blizzard conditions. Nor’easters are usually most intense during winter in New England and Atlantic Canada. They thrive on converging air masses—the cold polar air mass and the warmer air over the water—and are more severe in winter when the difference in temperature between these air masses is greater.[1][2][3]

    Nor’easters tend to develop most often and most powerfully between the months of October and March, although they can (much less commonly) develop during other parts of the year as well. The susceptible regions are generally impacted by nor’easters a few times each winter.[4][5][6]

  22. I’m skeptical of the “double barrel” structure for this next system. I think there’s a decent chance for at least a moderate accumulating snow in parts of SNE this week, but models probably aren’t keyed in well on the evolution yet.

    It’s not a true Nor’easter, but that doesn’t really mean anything.

  23. I have a feeling we have seen the last of accumulation snow just a strong hunch around here anyways

    1. I had that feeling a couple of weeks ago, and look at how wrong I was.

      For whatever my hunch is worth I don’t think we’re done with accumulating snows. However, I do think we’re done with major storms of over 6 inches (at least in Boston and vicinity). What is my hunch based? The current pattern, which is wintry and will remain that way for at least another 10 days.

        2. “I have a feeling…”

          Just that. Never said it was based on science. You wish for blizzards, I wish for no snow. Tit for tat.

  24. Euro looks like a complete Swing and a Miss for next week in stark contrast
    to the GFS. 😀 😀 😀

  25. It’s cslled an opinion respect & deal with it . I could be wrong it’s just a guess not a wish .

    1. hahahaha – My reply was to JPD and was a joke based on another common saying but switched to fish….because he fishes. Respect & deal with it 🙂

  26. All you guys have to do is ask me for a forecast. It’s simple. If I forecast a foot of snow for Wednesday, it will definitely be an HHH day. And vice versa. It’s foolproof.

  27. Thanks for the laughs. They came aplenty when I read this string of comments. And after the day I’ve had…it was much needed. 😛

      1. Just a frustrating day today. Nothing I won’t overcome. In fact, I’ll stomp it into a pulp with my victory dance over it. 😉 That’s me.

        1. Good for you. I’ll join you.

          Now off the record and I promise not to tell anyone….was the problem your negotiations for the acquisition of Patch?

  28. Saw stray flakes flying today in Boston. Not of the accumulating sort. These are more of the aimless kind that swirl about until they hit you smack in the eye. Actually had that happen yesterday on my late morning jog when some stray flakes were flitting about.

    It’s cold today. With all the clouds around hiding the March sun you wouldn’t think it was March 16th. Feels and looks more like a typical mid January day, especially when you factor in the still substantial amount of snow and snow piles on the ground.

    1. It’s hard for me to do the comparison thing because I am so observant to sun angle. No matter how cold-feeling it is, my view of the landscape with the sun angle leaves me able to pretty much tell you the date without the benefit of a calendar.

  29. We shouldn’t discount anything regarding next week’s system(s). Remember, just 48 hours prior to this week’s blizzard we were only supposed to get 4-8.” Have we not learned that ANYTHING can happen in NE??

  31. out of the euro 35 out of the 50 members have all the precip staying to the south ,out of the 35, 27 of them have the precipitation just south and east of Nantucket through Friday of Next week. 10 of the 50 gives cape cod/southeast mass precipitation. (snow and rain) With 5 of them giving the region snow/rain. Only a few show a sub 990 low.

  32. A scenario I feel is plausible…

    Wave #1 misses to the south late Tuesday & Wednesday.
    Wave #2, fairly weak, visits with precipitation of one or more types Thursday & Friday.
    Follow-up low pressure area from a separate trough arrives later Saturday into Sunday with rain and/or snow.

    We know the guidance is not done working this all out.

  34. I’ll chime in on the nor’easter

    I always thought that name was reserved for a classic phased storm. Miller A or a Miller B type event.

    1. It was used for those at first but over time, things morph, and I honest thing the labeling of things is messed up now. And priorities are even more so.

  35. And FWIW, I felt like it was down right fridged today. In the 30’s with that wind ripping. I know what TK is saying about sun angle, but I’m with Joshua today.
    And I had done dental work done this morning and I’m feeling lousy still. So today has kinda stunk. Didn’t go to work. Brought my computer home and had every intention of getting something done. Didn’t feel like it.

    1. Boston’s high temp was 8 shy of the average, and with wind, so it was pretty chilly. Get used to it. Reinforcing cold front is less than 24 hours away.

  37. Keith if you’re out there…

    CFS model has been coming around to the idea of a somewhat progressive pattern overall with brief but significant warm ups in a somewhat cooler-dominated pattern going into April.

    Interestingly enough it does keep a lot of cold air not far away but enough to drag in for more than 1 snow threat in mid to late April.

  39. I was out on the deck for a bit but wind is NW..pretty much directly onto deck

    Happy Winds-night 🙂

  41. Another tv guy said “it’s too early to talk numbers” and followed that immediately by showing model snowfall numbers for days 5 and 6.

    The problem continues.

  42. This AM Barry B was steering away from all events next week. No real precip in his forecast.

      1. Melting will continue. The cold air may slow it, but you cannot deny the mid March sun.

  45. FWIW, the 9Z SREF wants to get the snow on Tuesday into Boston.

    SO the NAM and the SREF are all alone at this point.

    Waiting on 12z NAM. 😀 😀 😀

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