Saturday Forecast

112 Comments

9:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
If you have any outdoor plans this St. Patrick’s Day you’ll want to dress for mid winter as an already cold air mass is reinforced by an arctic cold front moving through the region. This front may produce some scattered snow showers this afternoon. Then it’s dry and continued cold for the remainder of the weekend into at least early next week, though toward midweek will continue to monitor a complex storm system coming off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Feeling at this time is that out-of-phase jet streams resulting in northwesterly flow near the Canadian Maritimes drives the southern stream system east instead of allowing it to come up this way. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers this afternoon, greatest chance southern NH / northern MA. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH, shifting to NW late. Wind chill near 20 at times.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 10-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 20 at times.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
For now looks like any storminess remains suppressed to the south early in the period but by later March 24 or 25 a system from the west may bring a precipitation threat. Overall, temperatures remain below normal through the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
With low confidence I say there is a chance of one or two days of above average temperatures in this period as we head down the home stretch of March. Meteorological investigation ongoing…

112 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks, TK…
    Happy St. Patrick’s Day to everyone…

    How about Maryland-Baltimore County?

    Have a great cold weekend!

    1. MBC is why I don’t play the brackets anymore. It can drive one nuts just in the first weekend.

      1. That’s why it’s just for fun! Do you think I picked that team? I did have a couple good upsets in the first round in my brother’s pool. 🙂

  4. Sorry about that, announced new post but the original one did not show up because of an net outage. It said it posted, but it did not.

      1. Yes. I said it there too then explained here why a few people may not have seen the original “new post” post. 😉

  6. Thank you Tk.
    If the Nam looses, it I’m done. if it still gas it, it will give me pause.

    happy St. Patrick’s Day!

    2. The NAM already lost JP Dave. Count on it. I’ve seen this classic NAM f-up before. It’s adjusting slowly, but will figure out that it’s way off the mark on future runs. Done deal.

      Cold & dry, kiss ’em goodbye!

  7. Good morning and thanks TK. Really feels like winter out there today. Planning on heading up to killington tomorrow. They ended up with 39” of new snow this week and have received 6.5 feet since March 1. That’s what three nor’easters and a lot of upslope snow will do! I’ll post some pictures.

    I saw that the snow depth stake near the summit of Mt Mansfield has reached 100” (it was just 50” last week). A couple avalanches have occurrred including one in smugglers notch. Will be done great spring skiing this year.

    1. I haven’t been over there, so I don’t know.

      In marshfield itself, there’s about 70% snow cover that’s several inches deep. The 30% is the areas where there was little snow cover due to the wind blowing and the sun easily melted that off.

      So, I’m thinking that’s what you might find as coast guard hill. I’m also guessing there’s some good tracks down the hill from it being used a lot Wednesday.

    1. Saw that on the news. Surprised they didn’t have an emergency shut-down in place for that. Don’t know how old the lift was though.

    3. all lifts in the USA require an emergency turnoff button that area of the world does not. it also is probably an lift in an area that does not get the new tech that quickly. It very much might not of had one or someone sabotage it.

      1. I figured the US ones would by now.

        And I guess it’s a pretty easy “prevention” given that roll back is basically just gravity doing its thing if the motor stops working. Just an emergency braking system to stop the ability of the wheel to move.

    4. I had not seen this. Thanks for sharing. Beyond terrible. Thank heavens they got the word to those on the chairs to start jumping.

    1. Beyond 48 hours it will have trouble knowing what to do with lead wave, so it has been over-developing it.

  12. If we don’t see another flake until November or December, this snow will probably stay on the ground the longest all winter. I’m not certain but I don’t believe any snow has been on the ground an entire week up until now.

    And unless we get any well above normal days, my bet is the ground stays white for the rest of the month into April Fool’s. Snow piles look as solid as mid-winter.

    1. You’re forgetting 3 things…
      1) March sun angle.
      2) Length of daylight.
      3) Dryness of air (sublimation).

      This snow pack will go faster than you think, despite the cold pattern.

      1. of course it will. always does this time if year. even all of that snow in 2015 disappeared in a hurry in March.

    2. We easily lost half of the 22 inches the second day. That is on flat surfaces. Roofs are basically clear and the hills that suppound the neighborhood have lost 100% top half and close to all bottom half. Melt is very slow since that time. I seem to recall the December snow was around for quite a while

  13. thoughts for this spring
    Normal to below normal temperatures.
    Normal to above normal Precipitation
    Spring snow across Northeast
    Active pattern continues through most of spring
    There will be periods of warmth but they will be short lived.
    Increased severe weather threat.

    making finishing touches for my spring outlook on my blog, These are the main points for our area. I could be dead wrong about the above normal Precipitation

  14. Boston’s March temperature was averaging just over 1F above normal through the stormy period but should average about 2-3F below normal during this dry stretch.

  15. I assume that the Euro doesn’t have next weekend’s event since Barry has fair and 40s and he didn’t mention any storm possibility nearby or anything.

    1. None of the medium range models have it. But the ECMWF was the first to shunt it south. This is where that model excels over many others.

  16. I’m pretty sure still that the current block breaks down after next week. Maybe that reverse psych negative post I made is working. 😉

      1. No. I’d wait until May sometime. The snow season is actually a 12 month span to cover everything, which includes hail. It runs July 1 to June 30. So they will put out a tentative (usually ends up being final 99.9% of the time) snow total in the spring, but the final final is known on July 1.

              1. That is pretty much the benchmark I use.

                There is the highly anomalous case of measurable snow over the interior (not Boston) on May 18 2002 as well, but not widespread enough to be considered for the “cut-off” date.

  18. Model watchers…
    You’re going to notice a grand difference between the ECMWF & GFS beyond 7 days.

      1. The GFS is more progressive looking with 1 or 2 mild shots of air that week with mean ridge in the East.

        The ECMWF is progressive but a little more amplified and is quite the opposite with a mean trough in the Great Lakes / Northeast with a cold storm depicted around March 26-27.

        You can make a case for either or neither of these being correct. In other words, lower than average confidence at that time range.

          1. Unrelated to the storm, but it is related to the pattern that helped caused the storm. We have a tight pressure gradient and an arctic front moving through right now.

            1. Arctic front…well at least when the weather gets like this I know the light is at the end of the tunnel. Amazed how much the snow has taken a beating even with the colder temps.

  19. We have some snow showers out there, exactly where they were predicted to be. 😀

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.3760869565217391&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=430.5780346820809&centery=387.5722543352601&transx=30.578034682080897&transy=147.57225433526008&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25355248&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  20. TK – If you could have reversed February and March as far as snows and 70+ temps, your original winter outlook would have been 100% to perfection as far as the true definition of a FRONT loaded winter, correct?

    1. Well if we had 2 major snowstorms in February, I could have only claimed partial victory, forecast-wise, if they had been right at the start of the month. February was somewhat like I thought, but warmer than I thought.

      March has been completely different than I expected. I did not anticipate the type of block we got.

        1. There were 3 that I know of serving it. So you have a 33.3333333333…..% chance of being right if you guess.

            2. Incorrect. But a great guess! I have only been to The Restaurant once, believe it or not.

          2. Bickfords? Waxys? That’s all I can think of. Thought for sure it might have been one of the first two.

              2. Ha sorry Vicki I confused your comment thinking it was TKs answer. I guess I did make it on the third guess 🙂

  22. Out on deck for a bit under and hour. TK. I had to take a small chunk from table to put my drink. Not a lot of table melting today.

  23. Thank you, TK.

    It’s as cold as it’s been in mid March since … last year. The past few days have been almost a carbon copy of the middle of March last year.

    Impressive cold tonight with lows near zero in Northern New England. I was up in central Vermont today and there’s still a ton of snow around. It stayed well below freezing all day. I’m amazed at how much snow is still in downtown Boston. While a lot of it’s gone, I had a lot of trouble getting a residential parking spot as many are just too filled with snow and ice (the hard as a brick kind that can’t be shoveled).

  24. 7 day forecasts from around the dial. Wankum seems so damned crushed that there won’t be another Nor’Easter and damnit he refuses to remove snowflakes off the board! He wants to will it back into existence with his determination.

    https://i.imgur.com/QT7xEe3.jpg

    2. Thanks.

      I like Wankum. I think it’s prudent at this time – 4 days before – for mets to include the possibility of a few flakes and state that the storm is offshore. Wouldn’t rule out some stray flakes in Boston mid week. Not a storm, but the northern edge of it. The Cape and Islands may get some light snow.

      2. I like Wankum too. I don’t always agree with his on air practices but it’s not up to me what he does.

        Technically there is nothing wrong with him leaving the flakes there. It’s his forecast. If he thinks the storm could be close enough to graze the southern areas, then he should have flakes there. Time will reveal if this was a correct forecast or not.

    1. No sooner had I made this comment I check some weather chatter and there seems to be some bustling. As if a disturbance in the force.

    1. Was just about to mention that. ICON has it as well.
      AND if you look carfully at the NAM, it has A loaded canon aimed right at us.

      Let’s see IF the Euro does an about face tonight. 😀

      The NW flow aloft kills short wave # 1 for Tuesday. but by the time
      the hang back low gets going, the NW flow aloft moves a bit more to the
      North, allowing the Southern stream short wave access to SNE.

      We shall see IF this is realyor another illusion.

        1. I am excited to see the runs in the morning. Place your bets on what they will show by then. Imagine if guidance brought this back into play.. I do not envy the jobs of tv mets who all just wrote articles and went on air saying “whew we missed it.” Part of me wishes that forecasts could be precise 100% of the time. The other stronger part of me says life is fun with unpredictable variables.

  27. We have seen this song and dance over and over this winter. Models show a storm in the long range only to lose/suppress it and then bring it back northwest within 3 days out. Not surprised in the least bit!

    0z GFS is a sideswipe for the midweek storm but it’s a very close call. It also delivers a snowstorm for next weekend.

  28. Good morning. 13F in Coventry CT this morning! Driving up 91 from Hartford to Springfield, ground is completely bare.

      1. Ground here in Boston covered white to say the least. Shadowed in the CT Valley obviously…sorry about that Mark.

  29. 6z GFS and 0z Euro are near misses for Thursday. Too close for comfort at 5 days out.

    Both have snow from the system next weekend as well.

  30. Good morning.

    Mark you mentioned 13. It reached 13.9 at my house in JP. Pretty chilly for
    March 18th, that’s for sure.

    Waiting on the 12Z Runs. Last nights runs very close on Thursday.

  31. We are at 15 now. Atlanta has been in the 20s at least one night this past week. Perhaps more. Sister in law has had heat on which is unusual

  33. I believe we are in the cold corner of the nation other than Canada and in some locations up there are warmer than us in NE.

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