Wednesday Forecast

551 Comments

4:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)
What to expect with the storm system set to impact the region today and Thursday…
Precipitation start time: Mid to late morning South Coast, midday to early afternoon Mass Pike belt, late afternoon to early evening northern MA through southern NH.
Precipitation end time: From west to east between dawn and late morning Thursday.
Precipitation type: May start as rain South Coast to MA South Shore and may stay mixed with rain off and on during storm outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, otherwise snow, wettest consistency southeastern MA and more medium consistency north and west of Boston.
Snow accumulation: 2-4 inches southern NH through north central MA but may be a sharp cut-off somewhere in here to under 2 inches. 2-4 inches outer to middle portion of Cape Cod and 2 inches or less Nantucket. 4 to 8 inches most other locations, but pockets of greater than 8 inches are possible in a few locations interior southeastern MA, northern RI, and eastern CT, though not certain that this will occur. Wind: Top gusts from the NE Wednesday night of 35-45 MPH in coastal areas, but 45-55 MPH gusts possible over Cape Cod and Nantucket.
Coastal flooding: Minor to moderate flooding will be concentrated around the 3:15AM high tide Thursday morning.
Power outages: Isolated to scattered outages as there still are some trees and power systems weakened from recent storms, but not expecting power issue to be as significant as previous events.
Overall discussion…
The well advertised system, in 2 parts, is really only impacting this area from its second part as the first passed just to the south Tuesday. This second part will be a surface storm that evolves as a broad upper low moves eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This pattern is similar to the one that produced the other storms, though the overall intensity of this system will be less than its predecessors. The track of the surface low will be southeast of Nantucket, though the storm may do a small loop as it goes by. The snowfall accumulation associated with the system, detailed above, will take place between sunset and dawn, in general. After the system moves away later Thursday, broad upper level low pressure just to the east of New England will deflect what was originally a possible weekend threat to the southeast and weaken it, but during the Friday-Sunday period some snow showers may still occur at times along with continued colder than normal weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow, some coastal rain at the start, advancing northward gradually during the day. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 10-25 MPH interior, 15-30 MPH coast, with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, but may mix with rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. See above for snow accumulations. Lows 26-33. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, strongest along the coast where gusts of 35-45 MPH are likely. A few 45-55 MPH gusts possible Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with lingering snow southeastern NH and eastern MA with little additional accumulation. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-39. Wind N 15-25 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 34-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Windy at times. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)
Though temperatures will average near to below normal during this Monday-Friday period overall, a couple milder days are expected, and a weaker weather system may produce light precipitation, rain favored over snow, around the middle of the week.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A potential precipitation event sometime during the March 31 – April 1 weekend then fair weather returning. A more west to east flow should allow a more seasonable temperature regime to become established.

551 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  5. Good morning,

    NWS map

    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

    So, again, the Euro is on an island unto itself.

    euro snow

    https://imgur.com/a/28cvZ

    Looking at all of the other models, they seem to support a general 4-8, 5-8 inch
    snowfall, varying a bit from model to model.

    One thing I will point out FWIW, the sref has lower snow totals with each successive run. 3Z ensemble mean for boston: 3.55 inches

    On the other hand, the WRF meso scale models are rather bullish, so we shall see.
    Nam as well.

    NAM kuchera snow

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018032106/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    NAM 3km kuchera

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018032106/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    I also see a few lightning strikes down in NJ and the NYC area.

    Convective feed back with those??? Or real????

    current radar

    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

    1. Thanks JpDave !

      So the Euro does have the precip shield into southern NH, I’m guessing it keeps the intensity fairly light and thus, it struggles to accumulate.

  6. The question of the day is: What’s up with the Euro?

    2 runs in succession showing virtually no snow at all. I don’t get it.
    Could it be correct and we get nothing? Or is it just royally messed up????

  7. Thanks TK !

    So it must be precip intensity with the Euro.

    It’s not that the Euro has snow to the vineyard and Nantucket, ie : it keeps the precip to our south. It has to be intensity. If we look at the snowfall though, it gets accumulation into southern nh.

  8. Just having a close look at the RAP model, comparing the 6Z run with the latest
    9Z run.

    Something clearly is going on.

    Look at the 6z for 3z tonight or 11PM

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018032106/021/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

    Now look at the 9z for the same valid time, 11PM tonight

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018032109/018/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

    The 9z more current run has the center much closer and more to the West.

    9Z kuchera with plenty to go

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018032109/021/snku_acc.conus.png

    If this run is correct, Boston could exceed 8 inches.

    I guess, it ain’t over till it’s over.

    12Z NAM will probably pop it’s cookies all over us. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Pretty messed up that the storm starts like within hours and no one knows for sure. That being said I know this will fizzle. When it happens I will tell you how I knew 🙂

    1. My friend that lives in DC says 12″ for Boston.
      We’d be great co-hosts on radio. As people we get along fine, but we don’t agree too often. 😉

  13. The HRRR is definitely in agreement with the Euro. That’s our best global model and our best hi-res model in the same camp. Also noting southeast shifts in the 6z Canadian hi-res guidance. Not going to change my numbers at this stage, but would lean toward the low end of the ranges at this point, with bust potential definitely existing. If the HRRR verifies, Boston will see little more than a trace.

    1. Lol ……..

      But we’ll all be home by noon.

      I am frustrated by this ….

      Another class cancelled from 4-7 that I’ll have to make up in early June. Yet more lost learning time for students. Arrrrgh !!

      1. I think that particular HRRR run (9z) was a little too extreme in its outcome. I would expect little to no accumulation in Boston before sunset tonight, but a heavier band may try to rotate in after dark, so I still think Boston can get 4-6″ by tomorrow morning. There will be a sharp cutoff somewhere though. I think Boston will be inside of it, but a 25-30 mile shift southeast from my thinking and the city only sees a coating. That’s the margin.

        1. Ok that’s what I thought . I think we all no it’s tonight and I don’t know if Boston sees anything under I’d say 4

  14. WeatherWiz for NOW I’m saying 4″ for your driveway, but that may be a stretch if my long-standing fear about this thing pans out.

        1. Tk are you still thinking six tops for medical area if they make that and could it be less . We are trying to figure this out .

  15. It’s been a favorite of mine for years, but I can’t say I’ve been overly impressed with the HRRR lately. It’s not great on temperatures; it’s redeeming quality has always been its high skill in precip placement/development. But it’s really lacking in consistency lately. The 10z run looks nothing at all like the 9z run. And I mean nothing like it. There is a new version under development which will hopefully be better.

    1. That model gives me headaches. 😉

      I’m just glad I left my #’s alone for now and took today to finish fine-tuning.

  16. I think all my employees thought they’d be off today. Hearing “flop, bust, dud” for anyone who planned on not coming to work…..

    1. I was at MB yesterday and it was bad. Not epic, but bad. Bread, water…people talking about a blizzard, etc. Glad I don’t have to go today.

      1. Market 32 lot in Sutton has few cars. Logic tells me smart folks who usually go wed or thurs went yesterday. I’m going to hannaford later. Expect it to be empty also

  20. The public’s perception of this storm is all over the place. As I listen to people around the office talk I’m hearing every possible outcome. From feet of snow to people surprised that something could be coming. This system has been covered very poorly by the news (both locally and nationally).

  21. Weather bug weather app is showing 35 all the way till 2am in Boston than drops to 34

  23. Just got gas for the buggy during my coffee break.
    Gettin’ breezy in the ‘Boro.

    1. Breezy in Plymouth as well, although certainly didn’t feel cold enough for snow. And yes I realize that it can snow when it is over 32 degrees.

  25. I’m looking at the northeast radar loop and that northern edge is just dead in its track, as far as moving northward. In PA, its like the precip has hit a wall.

  26. No one came into work today…cuz…snow. I am the only one here, which is awesome. Unreal, but awesome.

  30. Same here JJ, radar has moderate snow overhead but nothing is hitting the ground here in Manchester CT.

    This storm has shades of winter 2010 written all over it……

    1. Shhh
      Give it some time. I have been back and forth and inside out over this storm.
      I think it is finally BACK ON.

  31. Mark I was thinking yesterday this storm would be like the January 2016 storm where D.C. to NYC and the CT shoreline got the most snow while inland areas of CT saw a few inches of snow.

      1. lots of dry air in the lower levels being brought into southern New England ….. yet ANOTHER thing this event has to fight.

  34. Listening to the NAM over the EURO is like taking basketball tutorials from Chris Dudley instead of Larry Bird.

  35. I would be doing a snow dance in the middle of the street if medical came in under 4 or less

  36. So odd how the jury is still out on this storm and it feels like snow whereas last week it never really felt like snow. Signals are certainly mixed for this. No wonder the public is not sure what the outcome will be.

    On a very happy note, Dana Farber has given us permission to hold the group meeting next week. Several folks come from a distance so it makes sense to reschedule. Plus a group of us like to go out afterwards which would have been missed tonight. It is more than just going out as it is a nice extension of an emotional meeting.

    2. I’m glad you have that support group . Getting through tough situations no matter what that may be having a support group is more successful than going the situation alone .

      1. Thanks, Sue and, SSK, you are absolutely right. It is great that Dana offers this. I actually thought of you when the group leader cancelled SSK. I’m sure they are happy to have the lot cleared of cars.

    1. I have been telling people 5-10″ here at work since Mon AM (for CT) and still see no reason to waver from that.

        1. No, and based on the NAM and HRRR, that 5-10″ would be good for pretty much all of eastern MA and RI as well.

          1. I have the number 7 in my mind for here. As always, it is based on absolutely nothing weather related 🙂

  38. I was just about to say looking at the NAM model a solid 5-10 inch snow event for CT.
    BDL sits at 48.3 inches of snow for the season and I would expect them to be over the 50 inch mark when the storm is over.

  39. 13z HRRR is more robust than the NAM….already up to the NAM’s snow totals by 18 hours (~3AM) and still snowing everywhere.

  40. The frustrating thing with the schools calling for early release was the wording from the NWS warnings and advisories from yesterday. There was zero wording about timing, just the time of the warning starting at 8am and saying things like, travel will be impossible. Then this mornings wording states the bulk of the snow will fall after 5 or 6pm. If that wording was included yesterday, i don’t think schools would have called early releases.

  41. Good morning again. Back in the office and heading for a freaking disgusting
    meeting in 1/2 hour!()@#&(!&@#*(&!@#&

    Any how, digesting the NAMS and the latest HRRR and RAP, I think
    a solid 6-10 inches is now in order. “Could” even be more.

    What a Crazy storm system.

    Re: Dry Air
    This storm WILL overcome it. DP is 27 at Boston with temp 34.
    Believe me it can overcome that. The dp is not -5.

      1. I have been watching this since 6AM. It is making very slow,
        BUT steady progress Northward. It is NOT sitting still.

  42. JPDave the snow has gotten through the dry air where I am. Its more like snow showers right now but the forecast earlier was the snow wouldn’t get through the dry air until the afternoon.

  44. The dry air in this case is not well represented by the surface dew point depression. The air is drier between about 875-950mb.

    No changes to my forecast. 4-7 along and south of the Pike, with an 8-12 (11-12 very isolated) band in interior southeast New England. Less (1-3) outer Cape/Islands and north of the Pike. Number for Boston: 5.3

  45. Also, do not be at all surprised if/when the radar actually looks less impressive this afternoon than it does now. This is almost exclusively an overnight event in our region. The last couple HRRR runs, while perhaps slightly robust, seem to have a more reasonable and consistent evolution of events.

  47. You can see the recent weakening/fragmenting/southward progression of echoes over CT the past hour or so, it shows up well on the OKX radar. Expect that to continue for awhile as the dry air feasts.

  49. The air is dry. I’m sure there’s a lot of chomping going on. But, it is not `too’ dry, as JP Dave alluded to. To saturate the atmosphere will take some time, but it will happen, I believe.

  50. Well, I am underwhelmed by the 12Z GFS. Completely UNDERWHELMED!
    GEEZ can any freaking model agree with another????????????????????????????

  51. Meeting adjourned early for a change. Wonder of wonders!

    Was just watching the composite radar.
    I have seen this before.

    We usually look for the precipitation to be moving Northeastward or Northward, but in instances like this, it “may” actually come from above. In other words, we won’t really see it moving up from the South, we “could” see it start breaking out all over SNE and fairly soon as I am seeing dark green echos above the City already. The Snow is up
    there.

  52. Same day antics with this storm.

    Now the latest 15Z RAP has onset of snow pushed back to about 7PM tonight.

    NOW that is a MAJOR change. And with that I assume the totals will go way down.

    I GIVE UP!!!!

    BRING ON SPRING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  54. JP Dave, for this event it could be snowing throughout the Boston area and the models still wouldn’t agree that it was happening.

  56. Channel 7 pushed the 6-10 area a little east based on the map that was posted on Twitter a little bit ago.

  57. Back from grocery store…..shelves were bare 😉

    Just kidding. They had a few extra cashiers today and yesterday but said there has not been a rush. My favorite cashier did say that some of the regulars for today were in yesterday.

    I oddly noticed lobsters are a popular item….. as I waited for mine to be steamed. Someone got six. Another three. I rounded it to an even 11.

      1. It’s only effective if it’s snowing when you’ve just shut your car off after running awhile or will be soon as the heat from the car initially melts the falling snow and then creates a layer of ice on the wiper blade rendering them useless. If you don’t use that method you can always give them a nice snap against the windshield and the ice layer should be knocked off. Tomato, Tomatoe

        1. Interesting article. Some makes sense to me; some does not. I listen to car talk – they crack me up. They recommended leaving them up for the same reason this article does. However, it is definitely a personal decision and I guarantee you can find as many articles for it as you can against. My son in law cleans my car because he has occupied my side of the garage with his fitness equipment. I have no dog in the fight 😉

          https://www.farmersalmanac.com/the-great-wiper-debate-up-or-down-23545

            1. I have also of late. I’m a bit of a stickler when I clean my windshield so then I would leave up. Mac never put his up either.

          2. The people who leave their wiper blades up are the same sociopaths who load the toilet paper under instead of over and who don’t wet their toothbrush before they brush their teeth.

    1. I concur. Just came in.
      Car thermometer reading 34.
      Looks and smells like snow, but nothing is happening.
      Still snowing like crazy over us, but nothing reaching the ground until
      the south coast of SNE.

        2. Interesting as the loop you posted does NOT look
          anything like the loop I looked at 1/2 hour ago.
          The incredible shrinking snow storm!!!!

          I just looked again at the live loop. Same thing as yours.

          I AGREE. It was different not too long ago.

  59. FWIW, the 9Z SREF is up to an ensemble mean snow amount for Boston of: 8.04 inches
    representing over a 100% increase from the 3Z run.

    1. Yeah, I SURRENDER!!)(@&#*(&!*(@^#&*(!@*(#&!*(@&#*(!&@*(#&

      Reminds me of a storm “about” 10 years or so ago. My wife and I were
      In Las Vegas and I was watching the Weather channel and they were calling for a foot of snow in Boston while the Mid-Atlantic was getting hammered.
      We had a flight home scheduled on Jet Blue and their Hub was in Nashville or Memphis? Can’t remember which. In any case, we were stuck in Vegas
      for 2 extra days as all flights were canceled, not due to the weather in Boston,
      but due to planes being grounded at their hub and other locations.

      The long winded point I am trying to make is that despite the SAME DAY
      forecasts for a foot plus in Boston, It NEVER happened. Boston got like
      1 STINKEN INCH and that was it.

      Seriously wondering IF the EURO is 100% correct after all and this
      will end up a DUD!!

      Yeah I know, I have been back and forth so many times, my head just came
      unscrewed. 😀 😀 😀

  62. Still doing a whole lot of nothing here. In fact there is dim sun shining through the clouds at times. Precip still only hitting the ground along the CT shoreline with a mix of light rain and light snow reports. Still little northward progression.

    1. Did someone somewhere say that it would sit below us for quite a while? Sometimes I make things up…so perhaps I did this time. 😉

        1. My comment is half joking. On that topic, I was talking to a friend today who is privy to the decision making of a local school department for closures/early dismissals, etc. I was told they base their decisions 100% on the NWS

          1. His school or all? Either way….there has been absolutely no consensus on this storm…including on here.

            1. The entire town. I agree and disagree on no concensus on storm. Yes, its been a difficult forecast, BUT as of last night it was apparent nothing would be starting until at least most schools were already out yet most towns made the decision earlier in the day when info was spotty at best

              1. It was apparent on here. But remember wind is a factor. I don’t know what schools added early release later in the night, but the majority of the ones I saw in the evening were closer to the coast or extended day programs. I don’t believe any released out this way.

                I have no idea what the Majority of schools use and am sure they differ but the NWS should be a reliable Choice

                1. Adding. Early release is difficult for many working parents. Consensus last night …..24hours before the event….to me is not a whole lot of help

              2. I know your stance on this is very clear, safety first. But we can’t lose sight of common sense either.

  64. Understanding from wxwatcher that more dry air exists at higher levels than just the boundary layer, Logan is at its lowest dp and RH all day.

    I’m decreasing what I was thinking before. Can Boston get to 2 inches, might it see. Sry little at all ??

    1. CRAP!!! Just checked and the dew point at my house is at the lowest
      all day as of a few minutes ago and it was 20!!!!

      YIKES!

      The EURO perhaps was onto something.

      IF the Euro ends up being correct, I am going to be laughing for a WEEK!
      AND I will NEVER trust another model EVER EVER AGAIN!!!

      Euro has one more chance coming up in a few…..

      1. My guess at this stage of the game it won’t change much. If it does I can only see it go down as even the euro had it at least snowing by now

    2. I’d buy you breakfast at the mug if sorry Little at all happens in the medical area

  65. Daughter listened to Barry at noon. Her comment …..They said it’s having trouble now and won’t accumulate until 7-8 and then continue through until 10ish tomorrow morning and we’re 8-12″

    He said they’d know more about amounts this pm

    It is getting windier here

  67. NYC is getting hit fairly hard. But nothing epic, at least not from the webcams I could view. Still no snow report from Central Park. Anyone know how much has fallen there. NWS still calling for 12-18 inches there. I think that’s a stretch.

    Dry air in Boston and vicinity is killing the `snowstorm.’ I’m ready to call it a dud. I think the Euro model may have handled the dry air situation well, as well as the positioning of the two storms. May be too early to call this storm a bust, but I don’t sense we’re getting much except for a lot of cold, March air.

    2. Ok this storm was not to start until late afternoon all along . So we need to have it start before we call it a miss or dry air is eating IT up .

      1. You are correct. I just react to data I am seeing.
        As you can see, I am really into this stuff. 😀 😀 😀

  68. 4-8 still very likely. I never expected anything to occur until early evening or accumulate until after dark. The only thing I’d change is that the snow may stick around a little while longer tomorrow morning than once previously thought.

    1. 2-3 inches for my area sounds about right. Given that we are now into Spring, my snow lover mindset is put away for the year. I hope we get nothing.

  72. Ok, let’s look at a different radar display.
    This is the Weather Underground Boston NEXRAD display in rain/snow mode.

    It “looks” like we are Initially going to get SNOW backing in from the ocean
    and not moving up from the South.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25360934&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. That will mostly evaporate as well. It’s not really associated with our storm. The precip field will initially contract as the new low consolidates in the next few hours, then will begin to expand and intensify a little. After struggling early, the HRRR seems to have caught on with the 16z-17z runs, and it illustrates all this.

  73. No changes in my thoughts, but presently favoring the low end of the ranges most areas… I don’t think anyone listened to what I said earlier about the radar 😉

    Tom mentioned the dropping dew point in Boston, and indeed, that is simply a result of dry aloft mixing down. If the column were saturated, that wouldn’t be happening, but instead we’re dealing with very typical fair weather diurnal processes. Snow holds til after dark.

  74. I would respectfully submit that if it snows 2 or 3 inches of snow, the storm is not underachieving or a bust or a miss. The best weather model has been saying this for 3 runs in a row now.

    The lower totals, if they happen, compared to very recent snowfall expectations will be because of human error.

    Giving too much weight to poor forecast models, still expecting higher amounts when the best weather model has gone with a few inches 3 times in a row. That’s not an underachieving storm, its a forecasting issue, not how the storm performed issue.

    1. Interesting and Tom you are always respectful. Something about this storm has been off from the start.

      At the risk of sounding silly …..which model? Is it four letters and starts with an R?

      1. I’m not sure, lol !!

        I just think it’s wise to depend most heavily on the best model and adjust to for its weakness.

        Mark brings up a great point below re : snowfall projections not being its strength. …… I’d rather go with the model that has the overall picture right, knowing I might have to adjust its snowfall in each individual case.

  75. Mike said Euro hinting at lower end of range he had 4-8 for Boston not sure if that was updated he just said that 2 min ago

  76. The Euro has not been infallible and anything but spot on with these past 4 storms. It’s good with the overall pattern as we know, but snow accumulation projections is not its strength, particularly within a few hours of the onset of a storm.

    1. Very true re : snowfall.

      But, it does get the synoptic setup very well and then from there, it’s up to each individual to take that and factor in things like dry air, precip intensity, time of year to adjust or not adjust its snowfall.

      In this particular case, because of lighter precip intensity, dry air, and that it’s late March, I think this is one occasion where it’s snowfall projections are fairly realistic.

      1. We’ll see, score it a major victory if 1-4″ verifies across all of SNE but I still think most locations still manage at least to get into the 4-8″ range. The column will saturate and the precip will overspread everywhere towards dark and then we have several hours of decent accumulation. Even if we don’t get the intensity, it will accumulate with it being nighttime.

        1. True and I apologize if I am grumpy today. I am a bit frustrated that we lost time on 2 things today that we could have gotten in. If it was the first time this month, I wouldn’t be so annoyed, but with so many correctly called cancellations before, it’s frustrating to have more. So, I know I have the miss and underachieve bias going the TK and JMA mention a lot.

    1. I think Ryan is very smart especially among the broadcast mets, and I follow him closely because of that. I like him, but I’ve been a little disappointed with his public delivery lately. He flip flops a lot, really hugs each new set of guidance especially the Euro and NAM. Not trying to knock him too much, part of it may just be that he’s more vocal than other mets, but just something I’ve noticed. I’m guessing at this point he’s reacting to the HRRR, which shows that CT may bust because of how the precip shield develops and orients itself. In other words, you could see most of RI and eastern MA meet their forecasts, but miss low in parts of CT. That is a possibility, but at this stage in the game, you just gotta let your forecast ride. I think most get into that 4-7 range even in CT, excluding the western/northwestern most zones of the state.

      1. Either way, it will certainly not be an “epic bust”. They’ll be at least a couple/few inches, and it wasn’t forecast to be that big of a storm to start with, although the media has made it out to be one. I reserve the term “epic bust” for much higher stakes forecasts than this.

          2. Well, that storm earlier this winter where they got 6-10″ in the 95 corridor when the forecast was 1-2″ was a pretty bad one. If you forecast 4-7 and get 2-3, I don’t think that’s all that bad. If you forecast 8-12 and get 2-3, then that’s bad. Ryan’s latest numbers were higher than mine would’ve been for parts of his area, so he may stand to be off by a little more if the numbers end up lower. Still, this was never going to be an unusually high impact storm like the last few.

      2. Was just about to post the 17z HRRR. These are the snow totals thru 7AM tomorrow:

        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018032117&fh=18

        Looking more and more like the Euro each run and as you say, very unimpressive in CT.

        Ryan said last night on the forum that he regretted bumping his totals down after the 12z runs yesterday and then proceeded to shift the heavier totals north again at 11AM. A bit too much model hugging.

    4. If you mean the New Jersey coast, yes. That’s where the seedlings of the vast majority of our snow are right now. It’ll get here… but not for several more hours 😉

      Anything you’re seeing now will be light with no or very little accumulation.

      1. There AIN’T NO SLEET in the totals for this area.
        I don’t give 2 craps about areas outside of SNE. 😀

      1. I grill almost 7 days a week…almost. I usually don’t grill in pouring rain or snow (often I don’t mind as it gives me a break from grilling).

  88. So after looking at what I have available to me I am, for now, going to leave the forecast above alone but emphasize that I am leaning more toward the LOWER end of the ranges. Instinct is starting to win the battle here.

    2. At least some of us were suspicious of this from the start. 😉 Although the final word is not said on this thing, I still don’t trust it.

  91. TK…assuming you are in Woburn…did it just get really bright out for you? Like the sun was about to come out? I did on this side of town but lasted under a minute. Was just odd…didn’t fit the day ha.

    1. Yes. Thinner spot in the altostratus. Sun disk was visible when I drove from Reading to Woburn. That’s mid level dry air gnawing on the cloud deck.

  92. Real snow hitting the ground now in 3/4 of RI and all of plymouth and bristol counties in MA, moving northward

    1. As opposed to the pastry flakes hitting my desk from this very tasty raspberry danish. In fact, this may produce more flakes than I see from the storm……………………………

        1. Step 1 was leaning toward the low side of the ranges. I updated the FB page to reflect that. I may make an actual # reduction by 6PM. I’m going mobile about 6:30 so I need to decide by then.

  93. Radar echoes in parts of New England starting to weaken again now, especially down around the New Bedford area. Seeing a couple- and I mean a couple- wet snow flakes in Wrentham. Good breeze blowing out there.

    This initial wave of precip will help to moisten the column, though it won’t completely do the job especially towards the Pike and the city. But it will mean that our main event will overcome any lingering dry air. That main event looks to be coming together as expected in the coastal waters off Jersey, where there’s been some recent new precip development. That’s the low and its precip shield developing. The convective elements in the precip are a give away of early stage development in a coastal low. I’m not lowering my numbers despite the recent RAP/HRRR trends. I wasn’t that high to begin with. The narrow 8-12″ band may not be realized, and I would definitely lean on the low end of the ranges especially in the fringe areas.

      1. I have always said less than 6 for them. Never had them reaching 6.

        I’m going to hold for a moment on a specific guess until 18z 3km NAM is in but I’m leaning toward 3 or under.

    1. I’m with you. SURELY looks like the EURO has WON this battle.
      Of course it is not over yet, but looking that way. 😀

  98. Just getting around to looking at day 7-10 EURO.

    Is there really some hope for milder weather 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. I have trouble faulting anyone. The system is almost here and even TK is still fine tuning. They have a responsibility to get info out earlier. I frankly think IF this last run is correct that it sucks for them because here we should have the knowledge and intelligence to understand the problem.

      All of that said I’m not writing anything off.

        1. Really only to go up on next run . I hope you are right because I’ve had it this month with storms. We are here in full force waiting

      1. HAHA! Nope, no TV for him, but he’d be a great radio talk host. One of the better speakers I know.

  103. Pete not backing down in the least. In fact, he expanded his 6-10 area to the MA/NH border.

  104. Also looks like the amounts forecast for the mid-Atlantic are NOT verifying at all. I haven’t seen updates, but I’m getting the feeling that this entire system is a dud, certainly in relation to what was forecast.

  109. I just got a push notification from “The Weather Channel” app that said, “Snow will begin around 5:28PM.”

    I almost died laughing. I’m sure others on the blog will also. I will update if it actually does start here (Sutton) at that exact time.

      1. I had a biology professor in college, many years ago, who would go into an hour lecture about statistics if he read that statement!

  111. It really looks to be coming unraveled per the latest HRRR run now as well. I’m glad I never bit on the really high totals, but my numbers will probably still end up too high in most places. We’ll see…

    Seems most of our storms this year we’ve had to adjust up going in. Guess we were due for one the other way.

  113. when all is said and fone, would someone be able to provide a detailed post-mortum??
    I presume the word block would be within it.

    1. Wankum still seee around 4 for Boston maybe close to 8 down through the south shore & cape . So looks like still plowable in the city but later

    1. According to mike we are in for the most he had 4-8 map saying lower Boston north and the higher down our way to the canal

        1. You were warned plan on at least delay or cancelled school down there . Have a nice night wish I was home

  115. Eric saying 2-5 like north and 5-8 south of Boston.

    35-55 mph wind with outages mainly south shore

  117. Been snowing in North Attleboro since 330 or so with varying intensity but mostly very light and not accumulating at all.

  119. I saw two flakes on my walk outside just now. Needless to say, this is not accumulating snow. Those two flakes deserve a medal for having survived the dry air snow-eater.

  120. I’d love to say I’m taking a walk, Joshua….My plan is to sit on the deck before I cannot 🙂

  121. Pete has 6-10 in areas that Eric has 2-5. They don’t even overlap. This is one of those days I am glad I am not on the air anywhere…

  122. Light snow continues in Coventry Ct but radar echoes overhead make it look like it is snowing harder than it is. Still have some more dry air to overcome.

  123. Snow commences in Boston by 8 pm and continues until at least 8 a.m. Since the storm is occurring during the overnight hours, 4-8 inches remains probable Boston, metro west, south and east until you hit the canal where mixing could hold totals down there a bit. Still liking the overall idea of a moderate snow storm Boston south.

    2. WANNA BET????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????!@)(#&!@(*#^&*!@^#&%^!@*#&!@&#*&!@*(#&!*@#&!(&@#*!@

      NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  124. My supper will be ready around 6:23 this evening.
    I got the same push at around 2:08, Tom!

    Of course, you and I will really appreciate that as teaching is about the only profession that works to the minute!
    I mean first period doesn’t end around 8:45. It ends at 8:43!

  125. Arod I’m no expert but I definitely think 8 is off the table in Boston south shore yes not Boston maybe 4

    1. Hence, the range. 4 for the north (metrowest) and 8 just north of the canal. That’s not to say that some communities in the metrowest area don’t see 6 as well as portions of the south shore. It’s just a range.

  126. Pamela from Channel 4 is just down the street covering the “storm” at the Taunton Green. Instead of measuring the snow depth with a yardstick, I think she’s counting the flakes in realtime.

  127. Jesus, Tim Kelly, live on Facebook just said April Fools Day is a chance for the next Nor’easter. Just awful, awful, awful.

      1. I just can’t believe he is talking about a Nor’easter 11 days out. It’s ridiculous to project a storm that far in advance.

        1. I don’t mind a projection about the next potential precipitation event like TK often suggests in his extended, however, I do have a problem with Mets like Tim Kelly giving the event a name like a nor’easter that far out whether it’s coming from Tim Kelly or management.

          1. I believe it snowed on Easter Sunday 1970. Barry has mentioned it on air from time to time over the years.

          1. And they may prove right but it’s irresponsible that the event is being given a name this far out. I agree with you that it may be coming from management for the purposes of ratings.

      1. I decided I’m keeping a list of folks who want to volunteer to take over the job of the supers 😉

        1. What makes America great is that folks are entitled to an opinion. My “opinion” does not affect the public ;D

          1. I have never said I do not value another opinion. If I have, please show me where and I will gladly apologize. What makes social media great is that folks can find fault with anyone. That is all right but my view must also be appreciated. I believe if you have a problem with someone, you take it up with that individual or group……..and not post on a public forum. Neither of our opinions are good or bad.,..they just are.

        1. And I’m with you as well. I love being judged for stating an opinion as if my opinion really matters to the general public 😀

              1. True but didn’t realize that I should have to be a volunteer when stating an opinion. Anyways, moot point and I do appreciate your opinions. Very reasonable indeed.

              2. Works for me. It just seems to me that when someone criticizes another, they feel they can do better. And I may be wrong with that also. If I am then I am sorry.

                I am just not a negative person so will have a positive view. But as always…everyone sees things in a different light.

                For me…there is a ton of negativity on here of late so i figure there should be a positive also.

  129. I’m in from the deck. Lasted longer than I thought. Some snowflakes here and there but a lovely night.

  132. Have any snow totals been released for the mid-Atlantic? I’ve gotten a few reports that suggest the storm has seriously `underperformed.’ This may be relevant to us.

  133. Just before WBZ news went off air, Eric plans on lowering his numbers. Was it the same old 5-8?

  134. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=us

    Here’s the water vapor loop.

    If my eyes don’t deceive me, the upper feature is moving pretty much east.

    I think folks get confused looking at precip motion on radar. There’s an illusion the precip is headed right for us. However, I think that’s the counter-clockwise motion of low pressure.

    But, the translation of the whole precip area itself is much more to the east.

    So, on its own, the heavy stuff will struggle to get to this latitude and then it’s fighting all the well documented dry air.

    The 6pm newscasts snow totals are still way to high, in my opinion.

  135. Bold prediction alert. I’m gonna say the snow never really gets here. Boston sees a trace.

      1. Tom do you really feel this could bust here at work with a trace or less or could we get the 4 inches . Sitting here waiting sucks

        1. Yes. Either way, it’s going to be a while before you get anything.

          The snow that was lightly falling got pushed south of marshfield.

          But yes, I don’t think those waves of heavy snow make it to Boston’s latitude. I might not make it to marshfield. Maybe it only makes it to a Fall River – Chatham line. So, Boston has a slight chance to get nothing even.

    2. If that’s the case then last Saturday’s TV predictions (and TK’s) for no snow this week would have verified. All the hype and model mayhem for nothing.

  136. The decent snow band that was over us is now shriveling up on the radar. Radar looks pathetic. At least everyone else is busting right along with me this storm 🙂

    1. It was not meant to begin until this time period. You should just go to bed and then wake up to see what transpired before you drive yourself nuts. Lol

  138. It’s actually getting warmer down here in Lakeville and last time I checked it was raining out. Over the last 30 minutes or so the temp has risen to almost 35 and there was some mixed rain/snow/slop banging off the skylight but that seems to have ended and it’s either a light rain or nothing right now.

  139. In NYC, where the storm had the greatest potential to be a major `nor’easter,’ Toby more or less flopped.

    From Bloomberg News:

    Much of what fell in Manhattan during the afternoon melted, leaving icy puddles. The city is on pace to perhaps get a little over 6 inches, down from the 10 to 14 inches forecast earlier Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.

    “Snowfall rates weren’t strong enough to overpower the March sun,” said Jay Engle, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Upton, New York. “We haven’t had a complete dud, we have just had some holes. And it isn’t over yet.”

    If I read this correctly, even where the storm was supposed to be at its best in terms of organization and snowfall intensity, it failed to live up to expectations. Now with the storm continuing to fragment on its meandering path up the coast, accumulating snows in Boston don’t look particularly promising, with one caveat: Night-time bursts of snow may actually accumulate as there’s no March sun to contend with.

    1. I think NJ, eastern PA and Maryland got hit pretty well.

      I think they probably got the full melted amount of precip they were forecast to.

      Of course, against forecasts for a daylight snowfall with a sun angle of 50 degrees, they did not meet the expectations. I’m going to guess that some snowfall predictions went straight with the model numbers and didn’t account for the incredible strong sun to do its thing, and so again, I propose that the lower snow amounts don’t mean an underachieving storm, it means a poor late March snowfall projection.

  140. And then …. with the precip not being where it was thought to be, the temps are actually slightly rising this evening. It’s back to 36F at Logan at 7pm after being 34F earlier.

    1. Odd thing is my youngest told me this am that temps were to rise into high 30s on south shore tonight. No idea where she heard this

        1. All kidding aside old salty you said no to 4 . Pete has Boston at 1-3 Tom thinks maybe a trace . What do you think . Just out salting & it’s warm

      1. It’s been in the 30s on and off at night for a bit but this is daytime. I was really surprised.

        1. I see some signs in the 7 to 10 day period that Atlanta will probably get some much milder spring weather.

  142. Snow is hiding again here. It may work out that I’ll be able to get in another deck visit later. After dark and no bugs is my favorite.

  143. I was hoping for a delay tomorrow so my morning class was canceled so I would not of needed to go into Boston and finish this stupid paper during the day instead of at night. Any chance of delay openings in Boston?

  145. Pete now calling for 1-3 inches in Boston…says heavy band that was supposed to hit here is fizzling. 3-5 for southeastern Mass. and all of Rhody.

    1. I posted earlier that on Facebook Live tonight, Tim Kelly said we need to look out for a Nor’easter on April Fools day. Ridiculous.

      1. Yeah it was more or less don’t put your shovels away yet…April nor’easter to come…

  148. Ok, I PRONOUNCE THIS HERE Nor’easter DOA as in DEAD ON ARRIVALE!!

    PATHETIC piece of CRAP!!

    I find the whole situation absolutely COMICAL!!!

    If this were January, I’d be having a flying shit conniption!!!

    But since it’s past the first day of Spring I could give a rat’s ass. I think it
    is hilarious. I want to See what the on air Mets say at 11PM.

    No Matter what happens, TK is well covered. He told us all about his concerns
    and always kept his snow totals on the lower side and adjusted way before
    the on-air mets.

    I still would like to see a post mortem analysis of EXACTLY what the hell happened.

    Without being an expert, I think the influence of that Greenland Block
    exerted itself WAY more than expected and forced everything out Eastward
    just South of us. Not being a Met and perhaps missing something, I am most curious to learn all of the factors that led to this colossal bust.

    1. I have a far more scientific reason for the later season snow. My youngest left a few Christmas decorations on her mantle in hopes spring would arrive sooner. She is the jinx

  149. Snow to the West of us, Snow to the South of us, Snow to the East of us, Snow to
    the North Of us. The City and surrounding area have been enveloped in
    the Charlie-Marc Hole.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.5434782608695652&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=366.88&centery=278.64&transx=-33.120000000000005&transy=38.639999999999986&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25361321&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  150. Most of the ensembles are in pretty decent agreement on the overall pattern going forward. There’s been some talk of another storm off the coast early next week. And while there may be a strong ocean storm somewhere out there, it will be way, way out there and won’t bother us. It looks like we’re going to get a couple, maybe even a few, above average days mid-late next week as a ridge builds across the east-central US. But going into early April, I see a lot of unseasonably cold air close by to the north. Almost like the February pattern, but perhaps without such a strong SE Ridge. Translation: I don’t expect a rapid transition into warm late springlike weather, nor do I believe this will be our last opportunity for snow/mix.

  151. Was outside a moment ago and it felt warmer now than it did during the day today. Don’t have my thermometer out but unless I am imagining it I think it warmed up.

  152. I can’t stop LAUGHING!! I’ll retire tonight with a SMILE on my face. 😀 😀 😀

    POOOOOOOOOTHETIC!@(#*((!@(#&!*&@#*!

  153. Looks like Eric is on board with bust-o-rama now. Tweet about 10 minutes ago said the low is starting to head East, and unless it gets a nudge North, no dice.

    1. You may not see a flake. Not sure I have ever seen a BUST like this,
      except maybe on the wicked witch of the North.

  156. I’m not sure what more could’ve been done on this storm from a forecast perspective. I think the TV guys and the NWS clearly jumped the gun big time. And I think TK has kinda known all along this would be a near total miss. But you can’t ignore the models. I never thought total miss, but have never wavered from a forecast lower than the TV/NWS consensus. Disappointed it doesn’t appear to be working out, but I think for TK and I at least our forecasts are missing for good reasons and the messaging has been more clear/consistent on this not being a high impact storm.

    Boston Logan at 37 with a dp of 26. I don’t think there’s any doubt now as to how dry this air mass was. It’s possible the city won’t even see enough to measure, but they could also still sneak in 1-3. Either way, BPS closed is an absolute joke. Thankfully with technology we probably won’t need “snow days” for much longer. Because it’s to the point where even the threat of a couple inches is enough to close well in advance. I know my old high school has approved means of online learning during snow days which count towards the magic 180. They had a few days early in the season that they’ll make up, but any additional will be covered by online learning, and there’s already been a couple such days.

    1. That makes absolutely no sense Boston might not see enough to measure but could get 1-3 .

      1. Just giving the possible range of outcomes. Basically saying they could get anywhere from 0-3. To measure you need a tenth of an inch. It’s very possible they won’t get that, but if I had to give a specific prediction I would say they probably still manage an inch or two later tonight.

        1. I don’t know even here everyone is saying something different. I’ll post when I see the first flakes here

    3. WxWatcher, you are exsptional. Not one person has said or even intimated this would be a bust. Not one. It caught all by surprise. It is weather and weather is unpredictable. No one ever succeeds without some failures. How else does anyone learn? I think everyone’s forecasts are missing for the same good reason. If anyone expects perfection in anything….that is their failing and not the failing of those who do their honest best.

  158. Normally I am an ardent supporter of canceling school, but BPS should have waited a little longer before deciding.

      1. Well done arod. You helped me make a decision I’ve been wrestling with for a while. Thank you!

    2. I’m just glad my superintendent is a fan of WHW and often talks to me before making his decision on whether to cancel. 🙂

  159. Good tweet from retired Meteorologist Brad Field who worked at the NBC station in CT.
    I keep hearing “blame” of computer models…as a 38 year veteran I take credit or I take blame…meteorologist is carpenter, models are tools!

  160. We have to go back to early February 2010 for a bust of this magnitude. The difference is that the storm in February 2010 was a big hit in the mid-Atlantic – as much as 30 inches – and this one never turned into the major storm it was predicted to be in the mid-Atlantic.

    I do recall on Monday JP Dave sharing model information that showed a spread of 0 – 15 inches. Didn’t expect to see nada from this system, but it was in the cards all along, and hey it’s weather and there ain’t nothing we can do about it.

  162. I really wish school superintendents would personally consult the NWS more. The whole mission of the NWS is shifting towards decision support, and there’s no decision they would be better suited to consult on than a school closing decision. If not the NWS, at least a reputable private meteorologist/company as opposed to worthless phone apps or TV forecasts that aren’t specific enough for individual districts. There would be a trust building process involved, and ultimately the final call rests with the district, but some of the decisions this winter, both to close and not to, have been head scratchers.

    1. But wait ….. and they are amazing, but their advice wouldn’t have helped much in this storm, their 3pm update has 7-8 inches in marshfield as an example.

      Seriously, they should be contacting people like you, TK, JMA and SAK.

      2. True regarding the NWS forecast. I think they could’ve helped BPS hold off on a close for tomorrow, for example, but obviously NWS has been on the very high end of things for this event, so their forecasts will be among the worst on an objective score basis. But even while their official public forecast wouldn’t have helped much, perhaps a phone call to the office could’ve. They should be encouraging such communications at least.

  166. I have been out of town most of two weeks until Sunday afternoon and did not pay much attention to model output or the local synoptic features until Monday 12z. As such I can’t comment on the forecasts prior to that or the support they had from guidnce and observed weather.

    What I can say is without a doubt the Hi Res short term guidance was corrupted by the rapid convection yesterday evening and from that point on most all of that output was run to run contradictory garbage. The mistake was too many Meteorologists believed in the runs that gave them the outcome they wanted and failed to understand the limitations of the guidance and acknowledge the synoptic conditions that made high snowfall totals difficult to achieve in SNE.

  167. I had a feeling in the back of mind that this thing might bust. These storms that pass to our south in a blocking pattern and jackpot the Mid Atlantic rarely produce up here as the storm momentum is due east off the coast and the moisture has difficulty spreading north and penetrating the dry air mass. The 2 or 3 systems in the 2009-2010 winter are the best examples I can think of but there have been others as well. Tough to fault anyone though as it’s hard to ignore overwhelming model evidence to the contrary. Ahh well, we move on.

  170. I feel pretty good about the event.

    On Facebook yesterday, I guessed 2-4 or 3-5 for marshfield and talked about little accumulation today and a couple hours ago reposted to guess D-2 overnight for marshfield. We’ll see how that goes the next several hours.

    Today, stuck up for the Euro and questioned the NAM.

    And with that said, I’ll wake up to 10″ tomorrow morning.

    1. Yep, good call Tom. It’s one thing when the Euro has a blip run showing a whiff but when it shows it 3 times in a row within 36 hours of the storm onset, it cannot be ignored. Lesson learned.

    2. You wisely chose the EURO. I was burned badly by placing too much emphasis on the rest of the models. Very nice pick up on your part as you clearly were concerned about the dry air that the storm was required to overcome to achieve in these parts.

        1. And I got burned badly. I’m glad I’m not an on-air Met for a living :D. I still think it’s possible the same area sees 2-4 rather than 4-8.

  177. reiterating what Hadi said.
    0Z NAMs and GFS come in with 5-7 inches for Boston.
    I’ll believe that when I see it.

    HRRR and RAP say NOTHING of the sort.

  178. When there is a lesson to be learned and a reminder that this is a science that includes predicting the future, it’s disappointing how many people turn to anger at this who do it quite accurately the vast majority of the time, instead of realizing that these events are infrequent, though inevitable.

    A small tour through social media illustrates this perfectly this evening.

    BTW I did not have the chance to update here but only did the FB page from my phone. A couple hours ago I cut amounts basically in half, which I had noted for quite some time was going to be an option, prompted by my worry over the magnitude of dry air.

    But even this is not so simple. The amount of moisture coming northward from that storm is tremendous, as exemplified by the 4 inches of snow that fell in Islip in a mere 60 minutes. How many forecasters, even those of the highest caliber and with the greatest experience, would have been able to look at all the available tools and forecast 4 inch per hour snowfall rates just tens of miles away where little or no snow would be falling, despite having 90% their usually reliable computer guidance telling them otherwise?

    I’ll be updating the blog in a little while. 🙂

  181. Logan has been rain so far.

    Well, the forecast way, way above did have some rain for the coast at the onset. The only thing is it’s about 12 hours later than I had. 😉

      1. The temperature forecast for tonight was dependent on more steady precipitation occurring. Without that small amount of dynamic cooling, the lower atmosphere is naturally warmer.

          1. We’ll know when the ob says snow and not rain. 🙂

            Meanwhile I have a few flakes here.

  184. Absolutely blinding snowstorm in Back Bay. The snow intensity is beyond belief. Puking snow. Plows will be working overtime tonight. … Well, in my dreams perhaps.

    Nobody should be angry at the forecasts. These things happen. We can learn from model failure, as the garbage in, garbage out principle applies. I know, because I work with economic models every day. However sophisticated the model, if the econometric variables and equations contain garbage or lots of noise predictions will be problematic.

    There should be some reflection on a. putting numbers out there without a caveat; and b. decisions based on very imprecise expectations rather than reality. In this particular case both a and b were based on models that were NEVER consistent in the lead-up to the `storm.’ It is not as if this `storm’ was ever a lock to impact Boston and vicinity. Not even hours before the storm was about to happen. When guidance is so wildly inconsistent from run to run and across models the prudent action for mets is not to pick their favorite model or predict what will give the stations better ratings, but to tell the public the full range of possibilities based on guidance: from this storm may not materialize at all, to this storm may produce 8 inches of snow in Boston. May not make for good television, and it may seem to people like a cop-out, but it actually is more informative than precise numbers without consistent model support. Also, school superintendents are not expected to be knowledgeable about weather, but they should use common sense and human judgement, rather than blind reliance on what certain forecasters may be saying. I do not believe in canceling school before a flake has fallen from the sky, for example. Ever, actually. Wait until you at least can see snow beginning to develop, then make the call. On Tuesday evening I had an entire day of meetings canceled on Wednesday due to a snowstorm that even the mets said on Tuesday evening would not impact the region until late afternoon at the earliest. Sorry, but that’s ridiculous. Similarly, BPS’s decision to cancel school on Thursday mid-afternoon on Wednesday was ridiculous (when no flake had fallen from the sky and forecasts were all over the place, and mostly lowering numbers significantly). Humans have evolved as brilliant users of countless tools to advance ourselves and the societies we live in. But in the process of doing so we’ve lost some common sense and instinctual and observational decision-making skills.

  186. Snowing lightly for a while now, but it’s just barely starting to stick to the pavement. Maybe we’ll see an inch or two after all.

      1. On the North Shore in Marblehead.

        It’s also sticking to the trees now. Snow looks wild against the streetlights.

  187. Just woke up…nada. Well a light coating on deck but street and walkway are black. Not sure what will build up between now and sunrise.

        1. Yeah JR was saying unless you got over a few inches no need to shovel. I am good with that. Glad you had an easy night!

            1. Oh wow…to think it was in the 6-10” zone 24 hours ago! Well another hour or so until sunrise!

  189. Lots of kids got a free day off today. The comments sections on some of these school feeds should be a goldmine of entertainment later ha,

  190. he he he
    been snowing off and on since about 11.
    any semblence of serious snow since 4am.
    decent coating on car tops, roofs and ground. streets bare.

  194. Figures…dumping snow now where I am…everything getting covered and fast. Almost made it…

  195. Tale of 2 Marshfield …..

    Down by the ocean, barely anything sticking …..

    1 mile west ….. thin coating on sidewalks, thick coating on grass/trees and snowing fairly steadily.

  196. Wow shocked at the snow we are getting. Hammering down must have an inch by now and had nothing like a hour or two ago. Depressing.

  197. I live in Lunenburg. BZ has us outside of the C-2″ range. I just measured 3″ and it is still snowing.

  198. Perhaps March 29th for our first real spring-like day …. a week from today …..

    its projected to be mild enough aloft, but we’ll see about the surface wind direction ….

  199. We are currently getting a sneak attack downtown. It is snowing! Of course now, the bands will somehow produce measureable snow.

  200. 1-3 amount looking good. Will wind down in the next couple hours.

    Update will be a bit later…

    1. Was worried you would be like…WW what are you talking about it’s not snowing in Woburn ha.

  201. Human nature is interesting. Often, I don’t understand it. To be very clear, because I do not understand it does not mean there is anything wrong with it.

    TK has said there are meteorologists who read this blog. Certainly, we have some exceptionally knowledgeable folks on this blog. Superintendents struggle daily with ways to do the very best for children in their care, particularly when it comes to the safety of the children. Town managers do the same. Even up to our governor who is very present during the times when our state needs a bit more guidance.

    I’m not naïve enough to not understand that there are a few at every level of every job who just do not belong there. But they do not come close to representing the majority.
    Ninety-nine percent of the time these folks get it right. I’m not sure why it is the one percent (or less) of the time they do not get it right that folks stand up and take notice. But I am sure, for me, that is the time they need our thanks the most.

    So thank you, Barry, Eric, Pete, JR……all of you who truly care about your profession and do the very best you can. Thank you, TK, SAK, WxWatcher, Tom, Mark, Old Salty, JimmyJames and so many on here who spend hours providing links and perspective. Dr Stupid, your compiled maps are invaluable.

    Thank you to the superintendents who have a thankless job. A few of you are understandably upset with your cancellation decision. Remember, though, you gave some parents a priceless gift today….a free day to spend with their kids. I believe the majority of parents are wise enough to enjoy that time rather than spending the day finding fault.

    Thank you to those who keep our streets clear and safe. And last but NEVER least, thank you to our teachers who have to work around interrupted schedules. You are amazing.

    A song to start the day….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awzNHuGqoMc

  202. This is crazy. The ground in East Taunton at my office is completely covered. I just took a look at my front yard camera less than 8 miles away and there’s nothing on the ground at all.

  204. 2.2″ here in Coventry, CT and still some very light snow. Accumulation occurred on existing snow cover and on my wood deck. Driveway has only a bit of slush on it and the street is just wet. Thankfully, no school delays or cancellations here today, and we got yesterday in too.

  205. NWS Snow Totals from Taunton:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    NWS Snow Totals from Upton (this is where the real snow fell):

    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201803220924-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

    Some areas in Eastern LI will exceed 20″ when this is all said and done. Funny how the forecast there busted in the opposite direction.

    NWS Snow Totals from Mt Holly, NJ/Philadelphia:

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

    1. Thanks Mark. Some nice total in Jersey.
      Would be very interested in NY totals, most especially Long Island. 😀

  207. Good morning again.

    Cleaned my car off at 8AM before headed to the office.
    measure 1.3 inches and it was still snowing decently.

    Here at the office in Roxbury, still snowing and judging by my Mission Church visibility gauge, visibility is just a “tad” over 2/3 mile. The church is exactly 2/3 mile from my
    office Window and I can just make out the outline of the church.

  208. VIS 3/4 to 1 mile here in light snow. In a little while that will NOT be able to
    accumulate at all. Need vis 1/2 mile or less and that ain’t happening.

  210. To set the record straight….
    Although I found much humor in the situation in this storm, I
    did NOT in any way mean to denigrate any Mets anywhere.

    It was virtually impossible to foresee what was to happen.
    How could one issue a forecast based on one solitary model, ie the Euro and
    ignore all other generally reliable guidance?? The only ones I ever heard
    any concern about a possible bust or under performance was from TK
    and WxWatcher here at the most reliable source for Weather in the whole world.

    I myself would have compromised between the Euro and the big number boy, the NAM and would have had a general 4-8 at one point and then 6-10 at my most optimistic point. And look where I would have ended up. An absolutely IMPOSSIBLE
    situation for the mets.

    I must say that on the 11PM broadcast last night Eric handled it with grace and charm.
    Kudos to him.

    1. Just curious…at what point do they apply their own meteorological knowledge about the science and not fully rely on models?

  211. So glad the 5:30 TV met I watched said accumulating snow was over by 6am…then just light snow showers…and since then it’s been crazy snowing and up to 2″ Can’t even get it right within an hour ha.

  212. 2.0” here in Wrentham. At least it’s not nothing I guess… dry air was finally overcome after midnight and especially predawn. Even now a steady light snow. Obviously a big underperformer, but for all the meteorologist’s sake I’m glad it’s not a total blank.

  213. I know it’s only March 22 (the birthday of George Benson and Andrew Lloyd Webber) but your post above is my favorite of the year Vicki. 🙂

  214. Philip: Full day of school in Middleborough; Half-day weather day yesterday. Six school days to make up with last day of school still scheduled to by Tuesday, June 26.

    1. Nah….I can be a bear. But thank you. Humble and Kind was released just after Mac passed away. As hard as I have always tried, I can tell you that he never had to give it any effort. The words may be mine but the credit goes to him.

  216. FWIW: Milton had full days of school yesterday and today. Last night, our superintendent sent out an e-mail saying that she might do a delayed opening, regular day or cancellation and we would hear by 5:15. It was a good call on her part–we have very little snow accumulation here–really only on top of the old snow, maybe cars.

    1. Yeah where they canceled my kids school there was no snow at all and they canceled later afternoon yesterday ha,

  217. Here I am back from abroad to be the boring wet blanket of reason…

    There were plenty of signs this was not an ideal snow set up for SNE. Yes dry air, but beyond that, orientation of the low, orientation / strengths of high pressure, blocking to the NE, prevailing winds, and that is before we get into time of year issues, daytime temps, impact of March snow vs January snow on roadways, etc. Mets’ and enthusiasts were feeling aggressive after the last event and got greedy and looked for exceeding factors not limiting factors.

    Then the thinking that NAM had performed so well this winter so lets go all in on that “superior model.” It performed well some this winter, but also had plenty of busts. The ECMWF is no king, it has had plenty of its typical issues this winter, I think it had a foot of snow for SNE from this system a week ago. GFS has had an abundance of failures, but was darn close on snowfall amounts in some areas on the #2 storm. There is no perfect model. For the most part I still stick to the GFS/NAM/ECMWF blend and ENS as guidance balance, along with analyzing synoptic conditions. The rest is noise and if you don’t know or don’t want to know the shortcoming of these computer programs and their limitations you are doing yourself a disservice as a professional forecaster.

    As for the HI-Res, it has its moments but they can be so temperamental because they are trying to forecast near future weather against a control of previous climatology. When the real time atmosphere is rapidly, violently changing it is almost always going to force it to initialize wrong and then create 12-36 hour forecast anomalies from run to run.

    One last note – I HATE model output snowfall maps. They have done a true disservice to forecasters, enthusiasts, and the general public. The proliferation of them over the last 5 years has created the perception of bad forecasts far more than actually have happened. They all suck! LE of snowfall can be done quite easily and more accurately using a combination of current and projected soundings, time of year discount or multiplier, and blended QPF. These maps are a lazy way of misinforming the public and they can be cooked almost anyway you want. No different than news directors down south wanting the radar colors to be “hot” so as to falsely intensify the echos of thunderstorms. These “proprietary” algorithms can be manipulated for numerous nefarious motives or just programmed flat out wrong.

    Meteorologists do a good job in a tough publicly judged profession, but I do feel some make the job harder than it needs to be, because they too often let their own enthusiasm get out in front of their well earned education and experience.

    Professional meteorologists – Don’t cheer for weather outcomes you want and try to confirm your biases, it will make you a better forecaster when you learn to appreciate all types of weather even the “boring” kind. Often the climatic and synoptic factors that create boring weather are anything but mundane.

  220. TK if you are out there we need a new blog…so many comments on this one it takes a while to refresh. Help us! HA.

  221. This explanation of the “bust” from Rob Macedo (NWS Skywarn email) this AM:

    As for why the snowfall amounts were lower and storm impacts were less than expected, the forecast models were having a very difficult time handling the amount of dry air in the mid-levels with some models forecasting less dry air in those mid-levels and other models calling for the dry air to hold on for lesser snow amounts. Models also struggled with temperatures and any cooling from heavier precipitation resulting in another forecast complication. High resolution models had some handle on this but even with those models, there was spread in the guidance. Normally, when coming close to storm impacts, models coalesce on this solution. For this storm system, there was divergence. This is similar to the late January “surprise” snowstorm where the model guidance did not have a good handle on current trends and led to a forecast with lower snow totals than realized. For this nor’easter, the reverse occurred. Spotter reports of less snow accumulation and mixed precipitation provided ground truth to help guide the forecast and snowfall amounts to the lower numbers.

    1. All that may be true, but still there was more to this.
      Even with all of that, WHY did the storm move Eastward
      and not NorthEastward as expected.

        1. I would also be curious as to the barometric pressure of that high to our north. I bet it was a very high number.

    1. In CT, the snow forecast actually verified along the immediate shoreline with several 6″+ amounts. Amounts decreased sharply as you moved about 10 miles north.

      1. Thanks for posting totals. So in parts of the mid-Atlantic and a few scattered locales in SNE totals did verify.

    2. Thanks Mark. I find it interesting that Chelsea’s total double than Logan’s given their proximity. Last storm for Chelsea was considerably higher IIRC.

  225. BZ is saying the storm center tracked about 53 miles south and east of forecast. It shows the forecast was right over the benchmark. Is that really what the original forecast was??

      1. Interesting, thank you. For some reason I thought it was much like last storm where the center for forecast to pass south and east of the BM but the precip shield extended way NW

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